2021 Shark Strategy for PPR Redraft by Draft Positions 1-4 (1 Viewer)

[papacapps]

I have the 2nd pick in a 12 team PPR league drafting tomorrow.  Cook seems to be the consensus #2 pick; however, FBG likes Kamara more...I see merits in both but am still torn.

 

[-jb-]

Not perfectly topic-aligned, but I drew the 2 pick in a 10 team, standard scoring, QB/RB/RB/WRTE/WRTE/WRTE league. I plan on taking Cook, then see what falls in two. Trying REALLY hard to not grab Kyler in the third. It’s been many years since I’ve drafted a QB that early but I do seem to like the build. This league traditionally averages 0 QBs in round 1, 2 in round two, then 1 each round onward. I’m absolutely leaning heavy RB 5-7, then will throw darts at Fields, Lance, and the litany of upside WRs late.

Am I nuts on the Kyler thing?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Am I nuts on the Kyler thing?

the fact that your gut is telling you to not do it means you’re perfectly sane. 

*especially^ in a 10-team league it is not a great investment to pick a QB in round 3.

you should be able to get great value on a QB1 all the way to the 6-7 rounds. You said it yourself, your league mates don’t invest early. So why should you? 

All you’d be doing is ceding value at RB, WR & TE.

I don’t mind a 3rd round TE (Waller might make the turn in a 10-teamed) but yeah, don’t take Murray in the 3rd, IMO.

or do - I mean, it’s your team.  

 

[-jb-]

the fact that your gut is telling you to not do it means you’re perfectly sane. 

*especially^ in a 10-team league it is not a great investment to pick a QB in round 3.

you should be able to get great value on a QB1 all the way to the 6-7 rounds. You said it yourself, your league mates don’t invest early. So why should you? 

All you’d be doing is ceding value at RB, WR & TE.

I don’t mind a 3rd round TE (Waller might make the turn in a 10-teamed) but yeah, don’t take Murray in the 3rd, IMO.

or do - I mean, it’s your team.  

Two things:

• There is no TE position in this league. They're lumped in with WRs. We vote on it every year, and it hasn't passed yet. Yes, that's stoopid.
  
• If you look at VBD and place it into a 10 team league, there is a sizable drop-off in the early round QBs, with a significant drop after Allen:
  
  Mahomes: 57
  
• Jackson: 43
  
• Murray: 39
  
• Allen: 32
  
• Wilson: 3
  
• Brady: 3
  
• Prescott: -1
  
• Rodgers: -2
  
• Herbert: -11
  
• Hurts: -26
  

This is based on DD numbers, worst starter VBD. Granted, projections are guesses, but it's pretty easy to correlate the running QBs from the rest (Hurts numbers include the volatility issue). I may take the gamble and try to wait until end of the 4th and see what happens, but I think that'll depend heavily on what happens in rounds 1-2. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Two things:

• There is no TE position in this league. They're lumped in with WRs. We vote on it every year, and it hasn't passed yet. Yes, that's stoopid.
  
• If you look at VBD and place it into a 10 team league, there is a sizable drop-off in the early round QBs. It doesn't really flatten out until round X:
  
  Mahomes: 57
  
• Jackson: 43
  
• Murray: 39
  
• Allen: 32
  
• Wilson: 3
  
• Brady: 3
  
• Prescott: -1
  
• Rodgers: -2
  
• Herbert: -11
  
• Hurts: -26
  

This is based on DD numbers, worst starter VBD. Granted, projections are guesses, but it's pretty easy to correlate the running QBs from the rest (Hurts numbers include the volatility issue). I may take the gamble and try to wait until end of the 4th and see what happens, but I think that'll depend heavily on what happens in rounds 1-2. 

Like I said, it’s your team.

but it’s a 10-team league.  So even if all 9 other managers take a QB early,  you’ve still got a top 10 player at the position, right?

And as we all know, that’s based on projection. Some of the 11-16 QBs will creep into the top 6. 

Meanwhile you can stack up on RB/WR (exclude TE since they’re optional in your whack roster set-up lol)

You can do what you like, but I prefer to wait in a 12-team start 1 QB league. I see no reason to reach in the 3rd in a 10-team start 1 league. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

• If you look at VBD and place it into a 10 team league, there is a sizable drop-off in the early round QBs. It doesn't really flatten out until round X:
  
  Mahomes: 57
  
• Jackson: 43
  
• Murray: 39
  
• Allen: 32
  
• Wilson: 3
  
• Brady: 3
  
• Prescott: -1
  
• Rodgers: -2
  
• Herbert: -11
  
• Hurts: -26
  

This is based on DD numbers, worst starter VBD. Granted, projections are guesses, but it's pretty easy to correlate the running QBs from the rest (Hurts numbers include the volatility issue). I may take the gamble and try to wait until end of the 4th and see what happens, but I think that'll depend heavily on what happens in rounds 1-2. 

This is solid analysis. I don’t follow DD religiously but I like your process here.

 

[-jb-]

Like I said, it’s your team.

but it’s a 10-team league.  So even if all 9 other managers take a QB early,  you’ve still got a top 10 player at the position, right?

And as we all know, that’s based on projection. Some of the 11-16 QBs will creep into the top 6. 

Meanwhile you can stack up on RB/WR (exclude TE since they’re optional in your whack roster set-up lol)

You can do what you like, but I prefer to wait in a 12-team start 1 QB league. I see no reason to reach in the 3rd in a 10-team start 1 league. 

LOLZ on it's my team - just throwing poo right now, thx for fielding it! The 4pt QB rushing TD has an impact here, I think, which causes the big drop off. 

 

[-jb-]

Sometimes just typing #### out helps...ya feel?

 

[brainee]

In mock and real drafts I've seen, at least one of Murray or Allen are often there at the 4/5 turn (in 12 team leagues). Going earlier for them in a 10 team league seems like a stretch. Then again, if you know you fellow players, know they go QB early (which is typical in leagues with "casual" players), and really want Murray ... well, I suppose you get the guy you want.

 

[TexasBall]

Halfway thru a 12 teamer from 1.02 spot. Ive gone off the rails...

Started well but Mahomes tempted me and then RB went off like crazy so I reached, then reached again. Going into the 8th round, not sure where to go.

My team in draft order:

Cook, Ridley, Mahomes, Edmonds, Hunt, Diontae, DevontaSmith

Need a TE and some high upside RB and WR...Any advice welcome!!!

 

[-jb-]

Halfway thru a 12 teamer from 1.02 spot. Ive gone off the rails...

Started well but Mahomes tempted me and then RB went off like crazy so I reached, then reached again. Going into the 8th round, not sure where to go.

My team in draft order:

Cook, Ridley, Mahomes, Edmonds, Hunt, Diontae, DevontaSmith

Need a TE and some high upside RB and WR...Any advice welcome!!!

Can you post whole draft?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

LOLZ on it's my team - just throwing poo right now, thx for fielding it! The 4pt QB rushing TD has an impact here, I think, which causes the big drop off. 

Even more reason to wait, in my opinion.

that’s kind of weird scoring though… Why did they decide to neuter the Konami code quarterbacks? 

 

[-jb-]

Even more reason to wait, in my opinion.

that’s kind of weird scoring though… Why did they decide to neuter the Konami code quarterbacks? 

I had it backwards...4pt PaTD, so the Konami code is actually amplified...hence the steep drop off.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I had it backwards...4pt PaTD, so the Konami code is actually amplified...hence the steep drop off.

Oh ok.

still not worth the reach in the 3rd round of a 10-team redraft. 

Do some 10 team mocks. See how the builds work out. 

I think it would be a mistake to take a QB early in any league shallower than 14 teams. But that’s just me. Again, it’s your team - do what makes you happy. If Murray = happiness, I won’t judge.

 

[TampaMike19]

I have the 2nd pick in a 12 team PPR league drafting tomorrow.  Cook seems to be the consensus #2 pick; however, FBG likes Kamara more...I see merits in both but am still torn.

I went Cook- not many variables have changed, and he's only getting better and better. Kamara I think is topped out in workload, and if you trust Jameis will pepper him in targets like Brees did (Brees was so smart to check down), then go for it. The difference isnt that big though. That 6 TD game last year is pretty bogus. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I went Cook- not many variables have changed, and he's only getting better and better. Kamara I think is topped out in workload, and if you trust Jameis will pepper him in targets like Brees did (Brees was so smart to check down), then go for it. The difference isnt that big though. That 6 TD game last year is pretty bogus. 

Jameis is way better than I expected. That said, historically Jameis has not thrown to the RBs. 

but THAT said, he’s clearly been coached up & maybe they’re working with him on that because I saw a couple of touch passes out to the RB that were on the money. 

Still, I do expect some regression in his receptions. 

I might still rather have Kamara simply because he’s been healthier. But Cook is a very very productive back when healthy,  if/when he plays 16 games, he’s a potential league-winner.  And with Irv Smith now done for the season, Cook’s targets could increase as well.

And Kamara is also in a little bit more of a RBBC, as either Murray or Jones will be a flex-worthy RB in that system. Cook has less competition for touches with Mattison there. Not that Mattison is inferior to Murray/Jones, just the way the Saints operate. 

 

[-jb-]

1.02 Cook

2.09 Gibson

3.02 Diggs



ETA - Mahomes, Allen, Jackson drafted in the second!!

 

[brainee]

After picking #10 earlier in the week, I found out I'm going to be picking #3 tomorrow (Thursday) night. 0.5 PPR, and only need to start 2 WRs (with 1 R/W/T flex). I'm hoping the different draft spot will result in a different mix of players. I'm pretty much decided on Kamara at #3 (unless CMC or Cook drop ... which isn't out of the realm of possibility since there are more casual players and they may pass on those two because of last season's injuries). Anyway, starting off with a stud RB for sure.

I haven't seen much more chatter here about how drafting from around this spot has gone. Maybe because it's straight-forward starting RB and then just go with the flow with who's left on the board when your turn comes up. In my other league, I love how the guy picking #3 was able to start: 3 potentially huge RBs (Cook, Mixon, CEH), then went WR (Lockett, Diontae, Higgins), then got the TE and QB late (Logan Thomas and Hurts).

Looking at rankings and ESPN's default order, at the 2nd and 3rd round picks seem likely to have more strong WRs (like Brown, Jefferson, McLaurin, Evans, Lamb, ARobIII) than RBs (CEH seems to be the only one that naturally shows up here ... others would be if they dropped or I make a reach). And of course there's Waller and Kittle ... the former will be very tempting. Maybe the last chance to pick Mahomes, but I know I'm not doing that.

4th and 5th round seem like a range of players at different positions are likely to be on the board: WR (Aiyuk, Cupp, Golladay, OBJ), RB (Swift, Edmonds, Jav Williams, Harris, Hunt, Edwards), or QB (Allen, Murray).

I just finished this draft. Here's what I did:

1.3 Kamara

2.10 Ridley

3.3 Edwards-Helaire

4.10 Godwin

5.3 Lamar Jackson

6.10 Mike Davis

7.3 Darrell Henderson

8.10 Boyd

9.3 Corey Davis

10.10 Trey Sermon

11.3 Higbee

12.10 Mooney

13.3 Rams

14.10 Zuerlein

15.3 L Murray

Mocks from this position typically had me taking a high end QB at the 4/5 turn, and that's how it played out for real. Lamar was actually the 6th QB drafted (and someone took Russell Wilson in the pick right before). This league loves QBs and I know it can be dangerous to wait, because other players will be taking their QB backups before long. I was the last team to take a TE. But I almost ran into disaster when I considered putting picking Higbee off a round, since there was immediately a run of teams taking back TEs. I broke the rule of picking K and DST last, but gambled that no one else would be interested in my Kamara handcuff.

 

[Tanner9919]

from a dynasty perspective, keeping dak, gibson, henderson, chubb , jjefferson..from my 10 team draft tonight, almost all of the talked about breakouts, sleepers, etc went very late if at all. your mileage may vary, but picking 2nd, every team keeping 5 so you're really starting at round 6, i woumd up with james robinson, j. williams(3), aiyuk(4), trevor lawrence, waddle, gronk, and against my better judgement jonnu smith , he's everyones darling apparently.if so thats great, and i got him in the last round lol

and apparently i took too many players, those were brandin cooks and zach wilson, available very late in the draft. either i''m off base or I should be brought up on chargers.feeling like i stole something.

yes, booze was involved.

Waited of TE 

 

[Truebluey]

I just finished this draft. Here's what I did:

1.3


Kamara




2.10


Ridley




3.3


Edwards-Helaire




4.10


Godwin




5.3


Lamar Jackson




6.10


Mike Davis




7.3


Darrell Henderson




8.10


Boyd




9.3


Corey Davis




10.10


Trey Sermon




11.3


Higbee




12.10


Mooney




13.3 Rams

14.10


Zuerlein




15.3


L Murray




Mocks from this position typically had me taking a high end QB at the 4/5 turn, and that's how it played out for real. Lamar was actually the 6th QB drafted (and someone took


Russell Wilson


in the pick right before). This league loves QBs and I know it can be dangerous to wait, because other players will be taking their QB backups before long. I was the last team to take a TE. But I almost ran into disaster when I considered putting picking


Higbee


off a round, since there was immediately a run of teams taking back TEs. I broke the rule of picking K and DST last, but gambled that no one else would be interested in my


Kamara


handcuff.

I like what you did here. Not a fan of the Falcons and their O line, and I don't see Higbee doing much in LA with all the weapons Stafford has, but apart from those 2 I think it's a very solid team.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

1.02 Cook

2.09 Gibson

3.02 Diggs



ETA - Mahomes, Allen, Jackson drafted in the second!!

Good lord. You stole both Gibson & Diggs.  That’s a 12-teamer?  Roster looks like 10 team league. Nice work. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I just finished this draft. Here's what I did:

1.3 Kamara

2.10 Ridley

3.3 Edwards-Helaire

4.10 Godwin

5.3 Lamar Jackson

6.10 Mike Davis

7.3 Darrell Henderson

8.10 Boyd

9.3 Corey Davis

10.10 Trey Sermon

11.3 Higbee

12.10 Mooney

13.3 Rams

14.10 Zuerlein

15.3 L Murray

Mocks from this position typically had me taking a high end QB at the 4/5 turn, and that's how it played out for real. Lamar was actually the 6th QB drafted (and someone took Russell Wilson in the pick right before). This league loves QBs and I know it can be dangerous to wait, because other players will be taking their QB backups before long. I was the last team to take a TE. But I almost ran into disaster when I considered putting picking Higbee off a round, since there was immediately a run of teams taking back TEs. I broke the rule of picking K and DST last, but gambled that no one else would be interested in my Kamara handcuff.

Some of these values are incredible. 

People get worked up into a panic about any news right now. Henderson shouldn’t be there at 7.03 no matter what his share with Sony looks like. Ridley 2.10 is great, and Godwin falls to 4.10? 

Nice team. 

 

[Godsbrother]

I have the third pick Sunday and have been agonizing over Kamara vs Henry and leaning towards Henry as he has been healthier and I'm not liking the uncertainty of the NO offense now that Brees is gone.   

 

[-jb-]

Good lord. You stole both Gibson & Diggs.  That’s a 12-teamer?  Roster looks like 10 team league. Nice work. 

10 teamer. Still stoked. 

 

[djjosee]

I have the third pick Sunday and have been agonizing over Kamara vs Henry and leaning towards Henry as he has been healthier and I'm not liking the uncertainty of the NO offense now that Brees is gone.   

I have the 4th and will pick what you don't.  Then will probably go with wr/rb/wr/wr/rb/qb/te - found this sequence fell nicely.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

10 teamer. Still stoked. 

Ah - ok, makes a little more sense, but both Gibson & Diggs fell further than they should have. Diggs is often a 1st rounder in 12 team leagues. Last I heard the knee wasn't an issue so I wonder what scared folks off. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I have the third pick Sunday and have been agonizing over Kamara vs Henry and leaning towards Henry as he has been healthier and I'm not liking the uncertainty of the NO offense now that Brees is gone.   

I really liked what I saw in the preseason from Jameis - their offense doesn't feel that uncertain to me. Looked pretty solid, tbh. And Jameis showing touch on swing passes to Jones bodes well for Kamara. 

 

[ffjunk]

How do you guys feel going early at QB when all TDs are 6pts?

 

[-jb-]

How do you guys feel going early at QB when all TDs are 6pts?

I don’t think it makes a ton of difference these days.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

How do you guys feel going early at QB when all TDs are 6pts?

Still not a fan because all QBs get 6 pt TD, not just the early ones.

But it depends on your build. I don’t mind elite QB if one isn’t going elite TE.

But QB is deeper & there are some left upside contenders at QB going late, so I prefer the elite TE build. Or at least stacking on RB/WR and waiting on both, but that’s riskier. 

 

[-jb-]

Did a Megalabowl draft yesterday from the 3 slot. I’ve never had a share of Henry, so I went for it despite still believing he’s going to break down. I figure it’s such a long shot anyway. Here’s the first 9 picks:

Henry

Metcalf

Jefferson

Henderson (RBs we’re drying up fast)

Josh Allen

Javonte

Jeudy

Gordon

Logan Thomas

Everything dried up incredibly fast after that, so just threw a bunch of darts. Happy with my first 7 picks, then it kind of went to ####. Never done this format before, and it’s free to enter so who cares.  

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Picking 4th in a 14-team, 3WR standard scoring draft tonight (which is a nice change after all my other drafts have put me in the 10-11 spot). I don't expect CMC or Cook to fall to me, but would obviously take them if they do. I'm hoping Henry goes 3rd and I can take Kamara; if Kamara is gone, I'll take Chubb over Henry/Zeke. I feel like Zeke has too many question marks, and with Henry I'm drafting him at his absolute ceiling (no way he's hitting 2K again, even in a 17-game season). I feel like Chubb is the one who's most capable of being this year's Henry.

Main thoughts heading into the draft:

• Can I get an RB2 in Rounds 2 or 3? If the likes of Mixon or Jacobs are available, it's a no-brainer. But more likely, it will be someone like Robinson, Henderson or Carson. I'll have to balance that against the WRs still on the board, but I will say my excitement at the level of RB available drops exponentially each round I wait.
  
• Do I reach for a TE at the end of the 4th or try to hold out to the beginning of the 5th? In my mocks it seems like Hock and Andrews often go at the turn, which would argue in favor of going early. There are three teams each picking twice after my 4th-rounder, and I could definitely see two of them reaching for a TE with one of their picks.
  
• The best scenario I've seen play out in my mocks are when I wait on my WR2 and end up with Diontae in the 5th, but I'm not holding out hope for that one.
  
• Will probably try to wait until at least the 7th to draft a QB, but will obviously look at which teams already have their QBs before deciding how to proceed. In one recent draft I noticed that almost every team had their QB and was able to wait an extra round and a half on Stafford.