AFC:
Dolphins over Bills, upset of the week. This is assuming Teddy is starting, they aren't winning with Thompson. I think Miami's pass rush overwhelms the Bills OL, and Hill and Waddle are both just open all day.
Bengals over Ravens, Burrow/Chase get theirs, but this is more about the Ravens offense (even with Lamar) just not having the weapons.
Chargers over Jaguars, kinda surprised how many people are on the Jags here. I think the Chargers D shuts down the Jags passing game, as Lawrence is running for his life against Bosa/Mack, maybe they can run against LA, but they have seemed quick to abandon Etienne of late. I don't think the Jags can cover all the Chargers weapons and think Allen/Ekeler both have very nice games.
Chiefs over Dolphins, Mahomes/Kelce are too much to stop, and the running game does enough to keep Miami off the field. Hill and Waddle can make some noise, but KC's offense is just harder to stop than Buffalo's.
Bengals over Chargers, Bengals pass rush is able to rattle Herbert, and Burrow/Chase keep chugging along. Could see Mixon having a nice game here too.
Chiefs over Bengals, game of the year candidate here, these teams are basically equals. Mahomes/Kelce are just too much to stop, and while Burrow/Chase should get theirs, I think the difference is DPOY (in my eyes) Chris Jones being just disruptive enough to keep the Bengals playing from behind.
NFC:
49ers over Seahawks, this screams blowout. CMC and Kittle should stay hot, and the D just shuts down the offense, other than maybe a desperation heave to Metcalf or something.
Vikings over Giants, I'm also surprised how much support the Giants are getting. I think the Vikings offense moves the ball basically at will, even with a banged up OL. Jefferson should have a huge game, and Osborn has been coming on, also think Cook should have success on the ground. Not seeing a ton of success for the Giants offense, I think Barkley gets held in check, and the Giants best means of moving the ball is probably Joens running, which he'll be doing a lot of from Smith/Hunter.
Cowboys over Bucs, should be a close one, as both teams are coming in kinda cold. I do worry Brady will be a sitting duck behind that OL against the Dallas pass rush. I think this is a low scoring game, but Dallas does just enough to eek this one out.
Eagles over Cowboys, Philly can protect their QB a lot better than TB can, allowing for Brown/Smith to win their matchups, and I think Sanders could break some big plays as well. I think the Eagles pass rush could be in Dak's face all game, and I'm not sure he'll have many guys open as I'm sure the Eagles will have a better plan for Lamb this time around. Cowboys best shot is too stick with Pollard/Zeke and try to grind out a win, but I'm not confident they can slow Philly's offense down, and that likely leads to Dallas chasing, which likely leads to Dak turnovers.
49ers over Vikings, honestly, I think this is another blowout win for SF. Same recipe, I don't think the Vikings stop CMC/Kittle, and Purdy has some easy reads against an overmatched defense. Meanwhile the Vikings can't run against SF, and in this game the OL can't handle the opposing pass rush.
49ers over Eagles, I think these are the NFL's 2 best teams right now. I think the 49ers erase the Eagles running game, and force Hurts to win it with his arm, and while he should have more success than Geno or Cousins, its still not enough. I think CMC/Kittle stay hot, and Purdy avoids mistakes enough to win a tight game.
Super Bowl
49ers over Chiefs, I think this ends up being somewhat low scoring, as KC slows the CMC/Kittle duo. I think SF gets a ton of pressure on Mahomes, and erases yet another running game. I think the guy who makes the difference here, and my pick for Super Bowl MVP will be Nick Bosa, with an honorable mention for Deebo Samuel. I also think this run cements Brock Purdy as the 49ers QB going forward.
not what I want, only what I think
2 Bills 29 (+2)
2 Bills 31 (-21)
