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***2023 Free Agency Thread*** (1 Viewer)

I know this is about fantasy, but just catching up on free agency, 4 years, $57 mil for DT Dalvin Tomlinson is this year's Christian Kirk contract. 28 mill over the first two years for a run stuffer who has a little juice. That's madness.
 
Very surprised the Lions couldn’t or wouldn’t at least match that.
If I had to look at a list of free agents, and I had to pick out three that would never again accomplish what they had JUST accomplished, I would start with this guy.
I also don't really think the Saints are in a position to be handing out contracts like this to rotational running backs either, but Loomis gonna Loomis.

Been kicking it down the road for 20 years, why change? Anyone who thinks they can’t do something because of the salary cap just take a look at the Saints.

Sooner or later you have to eat dead cap. Saints are perpetually in the top ten dead cap it seems like.
 
Sooner or later you have to eat dead cap. Saints are perpetually in the top ten dead cap it seems like.
It hasn't been the awful year some keep predicting, but it's death by a thousand cuts, they lose depth, it chips away at the middle class of the roster.

They traded a ton for Davenport, he's been developing, they possibly could have re-signed him for a good price before, but they have to make tough decisions, and they might see Davenport's best years for someone else. They lose Armstead for nothing. They draft and develop, but don't re-sign. It takes a toll.

If they ever do pull the bandaid off, it would be like Reggie McKenzie's first year in Oakland, they just took all the cap hit in one year.
 
I know this is about fantasy, but just catching up on free agency, 4 years, $57 mil for DT Dalvin Tomlinson is this year's Christian Kirk contract. 28 mill over the first two years for a run stuffer who has a little juice. That's madness.

Effective GTD is the only real number - $27.5M.

That’s 11th amongst DT. His average ($14.25) is 10th. He’s coming off a 2 yr $22M. Is it really insane? IDK seems like the market value.
 
I know this is about fantasy, but just catching up on free agency, 4 years, $57 mil for DT Dalvin Tomlinson is this year's Christian Kirk contract. 28 mill over the first two years for a run stuffer who has a little juice. That's madness.

Effective GTD is the only real number - $27.5M.

That’s 11th amongst DT. His average ($14.25) is 10th. He’s coming off a 2 yr $22M. Is it really insane? IDK seems like the market value.
He's a lot more attractive being 1A with a penetrator next to him. His main game is run stuffing, and paying top dollar for that is like paying for the best blocking TE. Maybe he makes enough plays to make it worth it, but if you don't have a true stud DT, and most don't, i think I would rather pay for edge rushers, and have waves of affordable DTs, four guys who all add something different to the mix. We've seen that work before, and you can add and subtract guys much easier from year to year when none of them cost that much.

This is more of a team building, salary cap vague point, rather than this contract in particular. I don't want to have the highest paid run stuffer in the league.
 
James Robinson coming getting 2/8 from NE.
Oof. He looked like a scrub last year, I think Pierre Strong brings more to the table at this point.

Wouldn't be shocked if they draft a RB, because they do every year, but this is a baffling signing to me. Who were they bidding against, and why not just bring back a FAR superior player in Damien Harris?
 
I know this is about fantasy, but just catching up on free agency, 4 years, $57 mil for DT Dalvin Tomlinson is this year's Christian Kirk contract. 28 mill over the first two years for a run stuffer who has a little juice. That's madness.
Tomlinson is a better pass rusher than he gets credit for, but the Browns had the 31st ranked run D last year. They lost multiple games exclusively because they couldn't get off the field when the offense was running out the clock. Seems like a fair deal to me. I'd rather have Tomlinson at that price than Payne at his.

Orlando Brown to Cincy well well well
Very interesting pickup, I would think he's signing on to play LT. So the big question to me is, does La'el Collins get dumped, or does he or Jonah Williams move inside? If they can afford it, the later makes a ton of sense.
 
4 years 64 million, 31 mill signing bonus.

Mike Brown really tore the Velcro off the wallet on that, good for you buddy
 
I know this is about fantasy, but just catching up on free agency, 4 years, $57 mil for DT Dalvin Tomlinson is this year's Christian Kirk contract. 28 mill over the first two years for a run stuffer who has a little juice. That's madness.

Effective GTD is the only real number - $27.5M.

That’s 11th amongst DT. His average ($14.25) is 10th. He’s coming off a 2 yr $22M. Is it really insane? IDK seems like the market value.
He's a lot more attractive being 1A with a penetrator next to him. His main game is run stuffing, and paying top dollar for that is like paying for the best blocking TE. Maybe he makes enough plays to make it worth it, but if you don't have a true stud DT, and most don't, i think I would rather pay for edge rushers, and have waves of affordable DTs, four guys who all add something different to the mix. We've seen that work before, and you can add and subtract guys much easier from year to year when none of them cost that much.

This is more of a team building, salary cap vague point, rather than this contract in particular. I don't want to have the highest paid run stuffer in the league.

Yeah roster construction wise I get what you're saying.

Finding a DI who creates interior pressure is searching for unicorns. Aging Aaron Donald, Chris Jones, Quinnen Williams - those dudes are super rare. It's why everybody loves the Drag Racer. Most teams just slide a bigger 5-tech over to 3-tech and run stunts bc they're aren't too many guys who can get that kind of push without a scheme.

1-tech guys who occupy two blockers are great to have (Detroit has that in Alim McNeil) but they're literally in every draft. I'm hoping Kancey falls to Detroit at 18, kid is the king of leverage - the opposite of a run stuffer DI. Will be interesting to see if he is able to handle being double teamed.
 
Oof. He looked like a scrub last year

He looked fine last year, actually. It wasn't much different than the speed and burst he showed his first year. He was just put into different schemes. A West Coast wide zone running scheme is no good for a 4.65 guy. It just doesn't work. It lets me know the Jets aren't paying attention sometimes. They traded a 5th or 6th for him and immediately set out to not use him because they didn't caveat emptor his rehab and their scheme.

But he'll be no more than a backup for the Pats. Stevenson is much more dynamic. I wouldn't be surprised if Robinson got cut, guarantees notwithstanding.
 
Oof. He looked like a scrub last year

He looked fine last year, actually. It wasn't much different than the speed and burst he showed his first year. He was just put into different schemes. A West Coast wide zone running scheme is no good for a 4.65 guy. It just doesn't work. It lets me know the Jets aren't paying attention sometimes. They traded a 5th or 6th for him and immediately set out to not use him because they didn't caveat emptor his rehab and their scheme.

But he'll be no more than a backup for the Pats. Stevenson is much more dynamic. I wouldn't be surprised if Robinson got cut, guarantees notwithstanding.
He wasn't playing well before he got to NY either. He had 2 long TD runs (37 and 50) that any RB would have scored on they were so well blocked but averaged 3.2 YPC without them.

Robinson for the season averaged 3.9 YPC, was 59th out of 62 qualifying RBs in PFF rushing grade, 59th in yards after contact per carry, 55th in yards per route run, and 61st in elusiveness rating. The only positive he had, is he was the #1 rated pass blocker, so maybe that's why he's being signed, although it seems weird to take Stevenson off the field on passing plays.

I do agree, that if the Pats draft a RB like they do every year, I wouldn't be shocked if Robinson didn't make the team.

ETA: For comparisons sake, in 2021 pre-Achilles tear, Robinson was 19th out of 61 in PFF rushing grade, 11th in yards after contact per carry, 41st in yards per route run, 23rd in elusiveness rating, and 29th in pass blocking, so even if his speed wasn't affected his overall ability certainly was.
 
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I know this is about fantasy, but just catching up on free agency, 4 years, $57 mil for DT Dalvin Tomlinson is this year's Christian Kirk contract. 28 mill over the first two years for a run stuffer who has a little juice. That's madness.
Glad you posted this
I always prefer to try and analyze the NFL angle, just purely what they bring to the team and what they will do with the surrounding pieces and coaching.
Then i start pouring things into a fantasy blender to see what comes out at the end.
I think sometimes we need to pause the FF angle for a minute and try to think like the coaches will. The coaches, most of them don't give a rotten spit about fantasy football and almost no decision they make has anything to do with yards, catches and touchdowns.
I'lll start projecting stats for myself after the Draft when the dust settles.
I also prefer redraft and understand in dynasty that arcs are changing as we speak.
 
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Actual details of Juju contract:

1. Signing bonus: $7.9 million.

2. 2023 base salary: $1.1 million, fully guaranteed.

3. 2024 base salary: $7 million, fully guaranteed.

4. 2025 base salary: $6.5 million.

5. 2023-25 per-game roster bonus: $58,823 per game, up to $1 million per year.

The deal also has up to $1.5 million in incentives for receiving yards in 2023, and up to $3 million in incentives for receiving yards in 2024 and in 2025.

Smith-Schuster will be paid $16 million guaranteed over the next two years. The deal will continue for a third year at the team’s option.

Contrary to reports that it’s a three-year, $33 million deal, the base package is $25.5 million. He can make up to $33 million.
 
He wasn't playing well before he got to NY either. He had 2 long TD runs (37 and 50) that any RB would have scored on they were so well blocked but averaged 3.2 YPC without them.
Meanwhile ETN had 220 carries and apparently was never lucky enough to see such blocking. Funny how that works.
 
Actual details of Juju contract:

1. Signing bonus: $7.9 million.

2. 2023 base salary: $1.1 million, fully guaranteed.

3. 2024 base salary: $7 million, fully guaranteed.

4. 2025 base salary: $6.5 million.

5. 2023-25 per-game roster bonus: $58,823 per game, up to $1 million per year.

The deal also has up to $1.5 million in incentives for receiving yards in 2023, and up to $3 million in incentives for receiving yards in 2024 and in 2025.

Smith-Schuster will be paid $16 million guaranteed over the next two years. The deal will continue for a third year at the team’s option.

Contrary to reports that it’s a three-year, $33 million deal, the base package is $25.5 million. He can make up to $33 million.
It's pretty cheap for a potential 75-80+ catch WR
I think he will do well in New England, and by that I simply mean he will give them a professional look opposite Thornton
They still have Parker in the cuts, decent but not anything special 1-2-3 at WR, in a New England offense that's actually a decent trio of hands.
I believe Thornton has the most upside but JJSS is an upgrade over Parker
 
He wasn't playing well before he got to NY either. He had 2 long TD runs (37 and 50) that any RB would have scored on they were so well blocked but averaged 3.2 YPC without them.
Meanwhile ETN had 220 carries and apparently was never lucky enough to see such blocking. Funny how that works.
Etienne had a few as well. The 62 yard TD against Houston in week 17 being the most recent one.

The Jags were not a good run blocking OL at all, that'll likely get better with Jawaan Taylor gone, but they did occasionally open some holes.
 
Parris Campbell just hit a homerun landing spot IMO with the Giants.

ETA have not seen money and maybe that's a factor but I'd have bet even money Frank was going to bring him to WR starved Carolina and I quickly find myself wondering if I should be concerned he did not?
 
Parris Campbell just hit a homerun landing spot IMO with the Giants.
Great landing spot. They needed a field stretcher.
The thing is despite his 4.31 speed he's mainly been an underneath receiver with one of the lowest aDOT's in the league last year I believe. Be interesting to see if he has more in his bag.
Did that have anything to do with Matt Ryan? He seemed a shell of himself.
 
Parris Campbell just hit a homerun landing spot IMO with the Giants.
Great landing spot. They needed a field stretcher.

Further complicates my cutdowns, been trying to move him for more or less anything for the past few weeks with no bites
I picked him up in one league on the last waiver run of the year to see where he landed. Good spot due to comp make him interesting but I just saw the contract and it's one year and pretty low so not sure he's going to make my roster. Probably not but he's still intriguing in a spot that a bunch of no body's were doing some stuff last year.
 
Parris Campbell just hit a homerun landing spot IMO with the Giants.

ETA have not seen money and maybe that's a factor but I'd have bet even money Frank was going to bring him to WR starved Carolina and I quickly find myself wondering if I should be concerned he did not?
The Rashaad Penny of WR's. I guess we will see if he can stay healthy. Also, if Daniel Jones will be willing to look more than 10.5 yards downfield.
 
Parris Campbell just hit a homerun landing spot IMO with the Giants.
Great landing spot. They needed a field stretcher.

Further complicates my cutdowns, been trying to move him for more or less anything for the past few weeks with no bites
I picked him up in one league on the last waiver run of the year to see where he landed. Good spot due to comp make him interesting but I just saw the contract and it's one year and pretty low so not sure he's going to make my roster. Probably not but he's still intriguing in a spot that a bunch of no body's were doing some stuff last year.
I actually thought that Campbell might have been one of the more valuable FAs out there given the competition. Seems like teams are looking more at past production rather than upside potential, which makes sense.
 
I expect they’ll draft someone also but still really like this spot for Foreman. He was quite good last year and could get a big workload in Chicago.
 
I expect they’ll draft someone also but still really like this spot for Foreman. He was quite good last year and could get a big workload in Chicago.
I'm not sure they will. They've got Foreman, Herbert, Homer as a top-3. There isn't a need, and this isn't a team that should be making luxury picks. Maybe somebody gets added on day 3, but I doubt they are a threat.

I think Foreman is an excellent fit here. I've always had a theory that bigger RBs alongside running QBs really stress a defense out, because its tough to match personnel wise. Do you go smaller and faster to combat the QB, or do you maintain your strength up the middle and risk the QB being too fast for your defenders. I think we've seen that with Gus Edwards a little bit recently, and James Conner in Arizona.
 
Hunt seems to be the only remaining FA RB that may justifiably create another messy RBBC.
Was just thinking of this earlier and for the most part the RB FA period did NOT alter the RB landscape. Actually really minor impact.

We still got the draft but really only two RB's are the kind of lock year one starter/big role types and one of them(Gibbs) is not a high volume runner. Will be a slew of RB's in the 3rd-5th round putting heat on starters but my point is I'm not sure we are gong to see the changing RB landscape a lot of us, me included, thought. At least not to start next season.
 
Hunt seems to be the only remaining FA RB that may justifiably create another messy RBBC.
Was just thinking of this earlier and for the most part the RB FA period did NOT alter the RB landscape. Actually really minor impact.

We still got the draft but really only two RB's are the kind of lock year one starter/big role types and one of them(Gibbs) is not a high volume runner. Will be a slew of RB's in the 3rd-5th round putting heat on starters but my point is I'm not sure we are gong to see the changing RB landscape a lot of us, me included, thought. At least not to start next season.

More the culmination of a trend rather than a true alteration, but I would suggest the big shake up we’re seeing is just the tripling down of RBBCs as the norm. And not just shared backfields either but more three-headed backfields with not only specialized roles but more of willingness to sub regardless of situation. As you pointed out somewhere else (and I agree), the skill players seem to be getting smaller and a byproduct of that may well be that 3 back systems take further root.

Certainly don’t think I’m breaking any news to you on this front, just saying that perhaps the shakeup were getting is just different with worse implications for fantasy than what many were expecting. With all these FA vets, plus the last wave of draft classes and the deep draft of interesting but not dominant backs on the horizon, the position has become totally saturated with talent.

I just finished a full on 3 year rebuild in one league, during which I ignored RB other than to churn the waiver wire or trade mid round draft picks or inconsequential receivers for committee or PPR backs. It worked great, my team is sick now, and of course that isn’t some novel strategy to a rebuild. Point is, I think that type of strategy is going to apply more to all types of teams moving forward. Not just rebuilds, but really just any successful fantasy team will likely be built with a stable of weekly upside plug ins at RB.
 
Hunt seems to be the only remaining FA RB that may justifiably create another messy RBBC.
Was just thinking of this earlier and for the most part the RB FA period did NOT alter the RB landscape. Actually really minor impact.

We still got the draft but really only two RB's are the kind of lock year one starter/big role types and one of them(Gibbs) is not a high volume runner. Will be a slew of RB's in the 3rd-5th round putting heat on starters but my point is I'm not sure we are gong to see the changing RB landscape a lot of us, me included, thought. At least not to start next season.

More the culmination of a trend rather than a true alteration, but I would suggest the big shake up we’re seeing is just the tripling down of RBBCs as the norm. And not just shared backfields either but more three-headed backfields with not only specialized roles but more of willingness to sub regardless of situation. As you pointed out somewhere else (and I agree), the skill players seem to be getting smaller and a byproduct of that may well be that 3 back systems take further root.

Certainly don’t think I’m breaking any news to you on this front, just saying that perhaps the shakeup were getting is just different with worse implications for fantasy than what many were expecting. With all these FA vets, plus the last wave of draft classes and the deep draft of interesting but not dominant backs on the horizon, the position has become totally saturated with talent.

I just finished a full on 3 year rebuild in one league, during which I ignored RB other than to churn the waiver wire or trade mid round draft picks or inconsequential receivers for committee or PPR backs. It worked great, my team is sick now, and of course that isn’t some novel strategy to a rebuild. Point is, I think that type of strategy is going to apply more to all types of teams moving forward. Not just rebuilds, but really just any successful fantasy team will likely be built with a stable of weekly upside plug ins at RB.

Excellent post…been beating this drum for quite awhile now…there are going to be fewer and fewer bellcow RBs…most backfields will have some form of RBBC…some will be worse than others…it is one of the reasons I don’t understand that when teams add a RB some fantasy owners seem shocked by it because it is becoming standard-operating-procedure…that thinking needs to change and outside of the Derek Henry’s and a few other RBs you need to worry more about the RB carving out a specific, reliable role that you can count on.
 
Hunt seems to be the only remaining FA RB that may justifiably create another messy RBBC.
Was just thinking of this earlier and for the most part the RB FA period did NOT alter the RB landscape. Actually really minor impact.

We still got the draft but really only two RB's are the kind of lock year one starter/big role types and one of them(Gibbs) is not a high volume runner. Will be a slew of RB's in the 3rd-5th round putting heat on starters but my point is I'm not sure we are gong to see the changing RB landscape a lot of us, me included, thought. At least not to start next season.

More the culmination of a trend rather than a true alteration, but I would suggest the big shake up we’re seeing is just the tripling down of RBBCs as the norm. And not just shared backfields either but more three-headed backfields with not only specialized roles but more of willingness to sub regardless of situation. As you pointed out somewhere else (and I agree), the skill players seem to be getting smaller and a byproduct of that may well be that 3 back systems take further root.

Certainly don’t think I’m breaking any news to you on this front, just saying that perhaps the shakeup were getting is just different with worse implications for fantasy than what many were expecting. With all these FA vets, plus the last wave of draft classes and the deep draft of interesting but not dominant backs on the horizon, the position has become totally saturated with talent.

I just finished a full on 3 year rebuild in one league, during which I ignored RB other than to churn the waiver wire or trade mid round draft picks or inconsequential receivers for committee or PPR backs. It worked great, my team is sick now, and of course that isn’t some novel strategy to a rebuild. Point is, I think that type of strategy is going to apply more to all types of teams moving forward. Not just rebuilds, but really just any successful fantasy team will likely be built with a stable of weekly upside plug ins at RB.

Excellent post…been beating this drum for quite awhile now…there are going to be fewer and fewer bellcow RBs…most backfields will have some form of RBBC…some will be worse than others…it is one of the reasons I don’t understand that when teams add a RB some fantasy owners seem shocked by it because it is becoming standard-operating-procedure…that thinking needs to change and outside of the Derek Henry’s and a few other RBs you need to worry more about the RB carving out a specific, reliable role that you can count on.
I don't think most people are shocked, but rather disappointed that *their* guy is being committeed away because it's so valuable to have a bell cow due to position scarcity.
 
Hunt seems to be the only remaining FA RB that may justifiably create another messy RBBC.
Was just thinking of this earlier and for the most part the RB FA period did NOT alter the RB landscape. Actually really minor impact.

We still got the draft but really only two RB's are the kind of lock year one starter/big role types and one of them(Gibbs) is not a high volume runner. Will be a slew of RB's in the 3rd-5th round putting heat on starters but my point is I'm not sure we are gong to see the changing RB landscape a lot of us, me included, thought. At least not to start next season.

More the culmination of a trend rather than a true alteration, but I would suggest the big shake up we’re seeing is just the tripling down of RBBCs as the norm. And not just shared backfields either but more three-headed backfields with not only specialized roles but more of willingness to sub regardless of situation. As you pointed out somewhere else (and I agree), the skill players seem to be getting smaller and a byproduct of that may well be that 3 back systems take further root.

Certainly don’t think I’m breaking any news to you on this front, just saying that perhaps the shakeup were getting is just different with worse implications for fantasy than what many were expecting. With all these FA vets, plus the last wave of draft classes and the deep draft of interesting but not dominant backs on the horizon, the position has become totally saturated with talent.

I just finished a full on 3 year rebuild in one league, during which I ignored RB other than to churn the waiver wire or trade mid round draft picks or inconsequential receivers for committee or PPR backs. It worked great, my team is sick now, and of course that isn’t some novel strategy to a rebuild. Point is, I think that type of strategy is going to apply more to all types of teams moving forward. Not just rebuilds, but really just any successful fantasy team will likely be built with a stable of weekly upside plug ins at RB.

Excellent post…been beating this drum for quite awhile now…there are going to be fewer and fewer bellcow RBs…most backfields will have some form of RBBC…some will be worse than others…it is one of the reasons I don’t understand that when teams add a RB some fantasy owners seem shocked by it because it is becoming standard-operating-procedure…that thinking needs to change and outside of the Derek Henry’s and a few other RBs you need to worry more about the RB carving out a specific, reliable role that you can count on.
I don't think most people are shocked, but rather disappointed that *their* guy is being committeed away because it's so valuable to have a bell cow due to position scarcity.

That is probably is a better way to put it…but I still think the smart strategy is to just assume it is going to happen at some point because it probably will…there is just too much RB talent out there, they take too much of a punishment and many teams are not looking to invest big $ into one guy…and if you are lucky enough to have a bell cow the reality is if their name isn’t Derek Henry their shelf-life may not be too long.
 

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