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2023 Pittsburgh Steelers. Banged up team loses to Buffalo. Looking ahead to 2024 now (9 Viewers)

Bleacher bust odds

Bleacher Report published a 25 year sample showing the % Pro Bowler hit rate by position. QB is 4th best 42% after Safety, TE and LB.

Most risky are WR 30, DL 31 and OT 37

By this metric, teams who buy into a QB are more likely to be successful. Obviously, less than 50% of all first rounders never make it to the pro bowl without buying a ticket. 

 
5-ish Finkle said:
This is all I want, really.  Let the draft come to them, take the best player available at a position of need (they certainly have more than one of those).

If they stand pat and then decide INSERT QB HERE is the guy they just MUST have, so be it.  Just don't be irrational and trade up to take the next Blake Bortles.  I won't be super excited with a Ridder/Corral/Howell at 20, but at least I can see an argument for it if the front office is convinced one of them is "it."  They had damn well better be right though.

 
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100% spot on. Frankly I hope that they don't see their next franchise quarterback in this draft. As you posted: " they had damn well better be right...".

 
pghrob said:
100% spot on. Frankly I hope that they don't see their next franchise quarterback in this draft. As you posted: " they had damn well better be right...".
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Yep.  I prefer the Steelers pass on a QB in 2022 (no pun intended) and instead focus on other positions of need. 

They have obviously taken a long look at the QBs in the 2022 draft so if the guy they like falls in their laps I'll be good with that.  I would just hate to see them trade next year's #1 away when it could be a much higher pick in a better QB class if Trubisky/Rudolph/Haskins all suck.   Also in the very unlikely scenario that one of these guys sets the world on fire then what good would it have been to draft a rookie QB that cost 2 or more high draft picks?

 
5-ish Finkle said:
This is all I want, really.  Let the draft come to them, take the best player available at a position of need (they certainly have more than one of those).

If they stand pat and then decide INSERT QB HERE is the guy they just MUST have, so be it.  Just don't be irrational and trade up to take the next Blake Bortles.  I won't be super excited with a Ridder/Corral/Howell at 20, but at least I can see an argument for it if the front office is convinced one of them is "it."  They had damn well better be right though.

 
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I know they addressed the o-line in free agency but I would love it if they took Linderbaum if he was available. 

 
Drunken Cowboy said:
They are the same level prospects as the QBs everyone here seems to hate.
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No, they're not.

If you look at most player rankings instead of mock drafts almost everyone has the QBs pushed lower in the 20's, 30's or 40's/below. They have prospects at OT/WR/DL/etc ranked above them. These rankings might not be correct, but the whole point is that these players are graded to be better prospects at their respective positions and the QBs are getting pushed up just because they're QBs. If the Steelers had a QB and DL prospect ranked 15th and both were there at 20, you take the QB because the position is more valuable. If they have a DL prospect ranked 8th and a QB ranked 30th, take the DL prospect who could be a star (according to their rankings). That's the argument. 

And of course not every player is a hit, but there's definitely players with higher floors. This is like drafting Blaine Gabbert 21 picks before Cam Heyward...

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Pro Football Network's mock seems to be more up to date with where the QBs are probably going.  Here is what I got there:

20. Desmond Ridder QB Cincinnati

52. DeMarvin Leal DT Texas A&M

84. Justyn Ross WR Clemson

138. Nick Cross S Maryland

208. Cordell Volson OT North Dakota State

225. Christopher Allen EDGE Alabama

241. Kyler McMichael CB North Carolina
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Does Josh Carney of Steelerdepot read this thread??

https://steelersdepot.com/2022/04/carney-pittsburgh-steelers-2022-mock-draft-version-2-0/

 
I did a quick look on pro-football-reference.com at QBs drafted in the first round since 2004.

From 2004 - 2016 there were 38 QBs drafted in the first round of which 8 are generally considered as franchise QBs - 

2004 - Eli, Ben, and Philip Rivers

2005 - Rodgers

2008 - Ryan

2009 - Stafford

2011 - Cam (this is iffy imo)

2012 - Luck

and that's it for the 2004 - 2016 group.  8 of 36 is 22%.   Of course there were some good QBs in the span too but not many.

I split the groups at 2017 - 2019 since those QBs have five years and less experience and have the majority of their careers still ahead of them.

From 2017 - 2019 there were 11 QBs drafted in the first round of which four  (Mahomes, Allen,  Jackson, and Murray) have already had excellent seasons and look likely to be considered  franchise QBs in the future if they aren't already.   

Watson certainly looks like a franchise QB but who knows what his future holds.

2017 - Mahomes and Watson

2018 - Jackson and Allen

2019 - Murray

and that's it for the 2017 - 2019 group.  5 of 11 is 45%.  If Burrows and Herbert continue their success 7 of 13 is 54%.  

2020 - Burrows and Herbert  (way too early but have shown rapid improvement and success so far)

2021 -  check back in a couple more years

So from 2004 - 2019 is 16 years and I have 13 franchise QBs which is 0.8 a year.  I am strongly in the camp of the Steelers not drafting a QB this year.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Damn skippy. 

When has moving-up for a QB ever worked? 

Forget about Mahomes... Lamar Jackson... and Josh Allen, or Desaun Wats...  
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i never said they should trade up for QB.   I said trade up for Penning.   Steelers have traded up for WR, S, LB, so OT isnt off the table IMO, if they want someone they will trade up.   But overall I dont think they need to trade up from 20, gonna get a needed piece to the puzzle.

 
steelers1080 said:
No, they're not.

If you look at most player rankings instead of mock drafts almost everyone has the QBs pushed lower in the 20's, 30's or 40's/below. They have prospects at OT/WR/DL/etc ranked above them. These rankings might not be correct, but the whole point is that these players are graded to be better prospects at their respective positions and the QBs are getting pushed up just because they're QBs. If the Steelers had a QB and DL prospect ranked 15th and both were there at 20, you take the QB because the position is more valuable. If they have a DL prospect ranked 8th and a QB ranked 30th, take the DL prospect who could be a star (according to their rankings). That's the argument. 

And of course not every player is a hit, but there's definitely players with higher floors. This is like drafting Blaine Gabbert 21 picks before Cam Heyward...
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They pick in the 20s. There is very little separation in value between 20 and 30. At 20 any pick who wouldn't be there at 52 isn't much of a reach really. 

For every Cam there are 5 late 1st round DL that are complete busts. Any QB they take could be Blaine Gabbert or they could be Aaron Rogers. This is exactly what is wrong with your whole line of thinking on this. Wyatt is the guy who could be Cam in my evaluation,  but the reality is it is way more likely he is bever a meaningful contributor than a HOFer

 
Drunken Cowboy said:
They pick in the 20s. There is very little separation in value between 20 and 30. At 20 any pick who wouldn't be there at 52 isn't much of a reach really. 

For every Cam there are 5 late 1st round DL that are complete busts. Any QB they take could be Blaine Gabbert or they could be Aaron Rogers. This is exactly what is wrong with your whole line of thinking on this. Wyatt is the guy who could be Cam in my evaluation,  but the reality is it is way more likely he is never a meaningful contributor than a HOFer
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That's fair, every player has a chance to bust, so even if they take a "safe" pick, there's no guarantee they work out. But based on watching game tape I think these QBs have almost 0 chance to become franchise QBs in the NFL. My view of it, which isn't necessarily right, is that if we take a QB this year they will never become a great QB and we're basically drafting Mitch Trubisky or Dwayne Haskins. Why would we use a 1st round pick on players we already have? Also, if we take a QB this year, I don't think we try to get one next year when the class is generally regarded to be better. 

So, you're viewing it as well if both can bust, take the QB because if it hits the positional value is higher (I think that's how your viewing it at least). In my view, the QBs are busts, 100%, so why take a bust instead of a player with potential opportunity. 

I could be wrong, I have definitely been wrong in the past. In 2017 I wanted us to take an ILB and when Rueben Foster was on the board still I was hoping and praying he'd be the pick, and they went Watt instead, which I didn't like. Obviously, I was incredibly wrong. 

My philosophy as a fan is that there's definitely players I love in the draft and hope the Steelers take, or others they avoid, but as soon as they get drafted, I support them 100%. I didn't want us to take Najee and go "all in" for Ben's final year when I didn't think we had a Super Bowl contending team and had many other needs, but as soon as he was drafted I support him and hopes he turns into a HOF talent. 

 
steelers1080 said:
That's fair, every player has a chance to bust, so even if they take a "safe" pick, there's no guarantee they work out. But based on watching game tape I think these QBs have almost 0 chance to become franchise QBs in the NFL. My view of it, which isn't necessarily right, is that if we take a QB this year they will never become a great QB and we're basically drafting Mitch Trubisky or Dwayne Haskins. Why would we use a 1st round pick on players we already have? Also, if we take a QB this year, I don't think we try to get one next year when the class is generally regarded to be better. 

So, you're viewing it as well if both can bust, take the QB because if it hits the positional value is higher (I think that's how your viewing it at least). In my view, the QBs are busts, 100%, so why take a bust instead of a player with potential opportunity. 

I could be wrong, I have definitely been wrong in the past. In 2017 I wanted us to take an ILB and when Rueben Foster was on the board still I was hoping and praying he'd be the pick, and they went Watt instead, which I didn't like. Obviously, I was incredibly wrong. 

My philosophy as a fan is that there's definitely players I love in the draft and hope the Steelers take, or others they avoid, but as soon as they get drafted, I support them 100%. I didn't want us to take Najee and go "all in" for Ben's final year when I didn't think we had a Super Bowl contending team and had many other needs, but as soon as he was drafted I support him and hopes he turns into a HOF talent. 
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No offense, but I am going with my own evaluation that matches up with every draft expert and clearly the Steelers staff that thinks each of the top 5 could be a franchise QB. The question really is how likely it is. Even at 5% they would be crazy to pass.

 
steelers1080 said:
That's fair, every player has a chance to bust, so even if they take a "safe" pick, there's no guarantee they work out. But based on watching game tape I think these QBs have almost 0 chance to become franchise QBs in the NFL. My view of it, which isn't necessarily right, is that if we take a QB this year they will never become a great QB and we're basically drafting Mitch Trubisky or Dwayne Haskins. Why would we use a 1st round pick on players we already have? Also, if we take a QB this year, I don't think we try to get one next year when the class is generally regarded to be better. 

So, you're viewing it as well if both can bust, take the QB because if it hits the positional value is higher (I think that's how your viewing it at least). In my view, the QBs are busts, 100%, so why take a bust instead of a player with potential opportunity. 

I could be wrong, I have definitely been wrong in the past. In 2017 I wanted us to take an ILB and when Rueben Foster was on the board still I was hoping and praying he'd be the pick, and they went Watt instead, which I didn't like. Obviously, I was incredibly wrong. 

My philosophy as a fan is that there's definitely players I love in the draft and hope the Steelers take, or others they avoid, but as soon as they get drafted, I support them 100%. I didn't want us to take Najee and go "all in" for Ben's final year when I didn't think we had a Super Bowl contending team and had many other needs, but as soon as he was drafted I support him and hopes he turns into a HOF talent. 
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You were correct they shouldn't have taken Harris. It was a terrible pick

 
Drunken Cowboy said:
No offense, but I am going with my own evaluation that matches up with every draft expert and clearly the Steelers staff that thinks each of the top 5 could be a franchise QB. The question really is how likely it is. Even at 5% they would be crazy to pass.
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Do you consider Derek Carr a franchise QB? He was noted as the Upside comparison for this class by "draft experts". 

 
It’s neigh impossible for the Steelers coaching staff to pass on an athletic rookie QB they can envision running the RPO. Flashback to Rooney saying we will never be that bad running the ball again. The best way to improve is a running QB who can open up lanes for Harris. Ben could never be that guy.

It would be shocking to see Pittsburgh pass on either Malik or Ridder if it’s witching their means to get one. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see them trade up. 

 
Drunken Cowboy said:
Probably but still not clear.

Comparisons are really meaningless though. Anybody given a top 50 ranking is viewed as potentially being a franchise QB
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Well, we'll just have to wait 10 years and see how it turns out. Does the forum have a remind-me-in-10-years function? Then one or the other of us can come back and say I told you so (unless the QBs from this class don't last til then). 

My view remains that this is a really weak QB class so building other key areas of the team before pursuing a QB next year is the best option. 

 
Grid71 said:
It would be shocking to see Pittsburgh pass on either Malik or Ridder if it’s witching their means to get one. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see them trade up. 
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Prepare to be shocked.  Most Steelers insiders expect the Steelers to not draft a QB in the first round in 2022. 

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Based on their pro day attendance and dinners, it is hard to say that with any certainty.  
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Agreed but those that cover the Steelers closely (Dulac, Labriola, Bouchette, etc.) seem to think the Steelers are only doing their due diligence and view the 2022 crop of QBs as unlikely to be long term answer. 

They are saying that the Steelers will focus on DL, WR and possibly DB or OL in the early rounds. Now if one of the QBs falls to them in the second round that would be a different story.

On the other hand these guys are only taking educated guesses and are not in the Steelers draft room so they could be wrong...

 
Godsbrother said:
Prepare to be shocked.  Most Steelers insiders expect the Steelers to not draft a QB in the first round in 2022. 
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I am prepared for the shock, but like last year with RB the writing is on the wall. Let’s hope the staff performed due diligence and able to pass on athletic QB potential at 20. Other than Ridder  :scared:

 
Grid71 said:
I am prepared for the shock, but like last year with RB the writing is on the wall. Let’s hope the staff performed due diligence and able to pass on athletic QB potential at 20. Other than Ridder  :scared:
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You could very well be right but the Steelers went out and signed a free agent they believe can be a starting NFL QB. 

Last offseason they went into the draft with Benny Snell as their #1 RB.  

 
Drunken Cowboy said:
Godsbrother said:
Last offseason they went into the draft with Benny Snell as their #1 RB.  
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That was waaaaay better than their current QB situation 
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Last year, Snell was the top RB.  Leading up to the draft the Steelers made no attempt to hide their interest in drafting a RB with their top pick.

This year, Trubiski is the top QB.  Leading up to the draft the Steelers have made no attempt to hide their interest in drafting a QB...

---------------------------

I've seen 'rumors' about a big extension for Minka.    

The Steelers already have, by far, the most cap devoted to the defense of any team in the league.  Extending Minka would provide strong evidence of a strategy going against the NFL grain. 

Very interested to see if the 'rumors' prove true.

 
Godsbrother said:
Prepare to be shocked.  Most Steelers insiders expect the Steelers to not draft a QB in the first round in 2022. 
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Dulac is 100% convinced it's D-line or WR. I would be very, very happy with Jordan Davis / George Pickens or Jameson Williams / Travis Jones or Perrion Winfrey. 

IMO Williams is a game breaker and if he can return at 100% he would be worth a top 8 pick this year. He single-handedly won Bama games this year and was on his way to winning them a Championship before his ACL tear. Then he tried to go back in the game... That's the kind of crazy drive you want on your team. I'm worried he lands with the Chiefs.

 
steelers1080 said:
Why do you think he failed so spectacularly against an Alabama defense that isn't as highly regarded as many previous years?

I'll admit that I've only seen 2 Ridder games and that was one of them and it's coloring my opinion of him because he appeared hapless against a very good defense, but one that is much worse than what he'd face in the NFL. The likes of SMU, Tulsa, South Florida, East Carolina, etc. don't really give me confidence that he's faced the best of the best... He might have some athletic traits and be able to read defenses against lesser competition, but I haven't seen anyone rate him as a top 3 QB in this class. 
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Another source for Ridder as QB 1

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2955153-desmond-ridder-could-be-2022-nfl-drafts-best-qb-even-over-malik-willis

 
BroncoFreak_2K3 said:
Sounds like his car broke down on the highway and he was stuck by a dump truck.
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Damn, I had a flat tire on a busy highway and had to change to the spare with no shoulder.  Scary as hell.  Every car felt like it was going to hit me. 

I have to feel for the driver since it 'sounds like' Dwayne's car broke down 'ON the highway' which could literally have been right ON a busy highway so I wouldn't blame the driver.

Tragic, random, and rare.

The only other NFL player I can recall who died due to a vehicle was a newly drafted rookie who died in a crash on his way to rookie camp.  Believe he was an offensive lineman, by the Colts, I think?  

 
Bracie Smathers said:
The only other NFL player I can recall who died due to a vehicle was a newly drafted rookie who died in a crash on his way to rookie camp.  Believe he was an offensive lineman, by the Colts, I think?  
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Brandon Burlsworth out of Arkansas. As tragic as it gets. They even made a a movie about it which I think is on Amazon.

Longtime Steeler fans will also recall the tragic accident, but not death, of first round pick Gabriel Rivera who was left paralyzed after just 7 games I believe.

ETA-Derrick Thomas basically died as a result of his car crash. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
It seems like a trivial thing to discuss but Dwayne’s death obviously has an affect on the roster.

The Steelers are now down to 2 QBs.  It was doubtful that Haskins was going to beat out Trubisky and Rudolph as starter.

Had this tragic incident never happened the Steelers were going to bring in a fourth arm and so I don’t think that will change.

The question is does this change their approach to the draft?  

Many felt the Steelers were drafting a QB at #1 anyway. If that’s the case then I don’t think Haskins death will change whatever strategy they were going to going to employ.  If they were willing to trade up, they still are as likely or if they planned on staying put they probably will still do so.

However if they weren’t planning on drafting a QB with a high pick do they change that approach?  

I don’t think it does.  If they don’t feel like any of the QBs were good prospects to develop into a potential franchise quarterback, Haskins death does not change that.

I have no idea what they are going to do but my gut prior to yesterday’s terrible news was telling me the Steelers were not going QB in the first round in 2022. 

I am sticking with that. 

 
What happened to Dwayne Haskins is incredibly tragic.

Only hope is that it raises awareness for how people should respond if they have a car issue while on a highway (it's been reported that he had a blown tire). If you have a car issue on the highway and you can't immediately get out of your car and cross a barrier into a field/forest/parking lot, then just stay in your car until there are cops/tow truck and you aren't at risk. Also, keep your seatbelt on. 

 
I don't think this event will affect the Steelers draft strategy. If they were going to take a QB early, they still will. If they were going to take a late QB or UDFA as a camp arm because they believe either Mitch or Mason will be the starter, they still will. 

 
crushedspirit said:
I think it all depends on who will drop down to #20, but I see them going one of these three paths, QB/WR/DL.
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Steelers haven’t drafted a player in the first without a pro day visit from Colbert or Tomlin something crazy like 13 years straight.  Of the 20 players visited here is your list

DL Georgia Jordan Davis or Devonte Wyatt    
Jameson Williams is the sole WR 

QB includes the big 5.  Ridder, Howell, Pickett, Willis or Corral

Volume of visits, have to think there is a strong interest in S and Corner

S - Hamilton, Cine and Hill    CB - Sauce, Stingley and Booth

 
Grid71 said:
Steelers haven’t drafted a player in the first without a pro day visit from Colbert or Tomlin something crazy like 13 years straight.  Of the 20 players visited here is your list

DL Georgia Jordan Davis or Devonte Wyatt    
Jameson Williams is the sole WR 

QB includes the big 5.  Ridder, Howell, Pickett, Willis or Corral

Volume of visits, have to think there is a strong interest in S and Corner

S - Hamilton, Cine and Hill    CB - Sauce, Stingley and Booth
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I think the pick is one of Jordan Davis, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Jameson Williams, Kyle Hamilton, Nakobe Dean, or Derek Stingley Jr.

I'm still in the camp that doesn't want a 1st round QB this year, and I think Pickett goes to the Panthers so he's not there for the Steelers even if they want him. Of that lot I'd prefer Davis, Williams, or Hamilton if they're available, all could be gone by 20. 

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Sounds like he really had a shot to potentially start this year or make Rudolph tradable. 
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I think it was unlikely he would be day 1 starter but who knows, he certainly had the physical tools.  I do think there was a very real possibility of him being the primary backup and the Steelers parting ways with Rudolph.  Then again there was a chance Dwayne may not have made the team.

It was totally up in the air but now we will never know.  Such a terrible tragedy.

 
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