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2024-25 Playoff Prediction thread (1 Viewer)

Scoresman

Footballguy
Talk matchups, overrated, underrated teams, dark horses, etc.

Wild Card

LAC over HOU
BAL over PIT
BUF over DEN

MIN over LAR
TB over WAS
PHI over GB

Divisional

KC over LAC - Any other matchup I take LAC with the upset.
BAL over BUF

DET over MIN
PHI over TB

Championship

KC over BAL
PHI over DET

Superbowl

PHI over KC
 
@Scoresman I would probably pick the same things as you did. I'm still waffling with the TB/WAS game and the LAR/MIN game.

That loss last night for MIN had to be so deflating that I think their goose might be cooked. Rams rested their guys.

Also, Jayden Daniels is a wildcard this playoffs. I could see him pulling the WC upset this week (though I don't have a strong feeling about it).
 
NFC
2 PHI over 7 GB
3 TB over 6 WAS
4 LAR over 5 MIN

1 DET over 4 LAR
2 PHI over 3 TB

2 PHI over 1 DET

AFC
2 BUF over 7 DEN
3 BAL over 6 PIT
5 LAC over 4 HOU

1 KC over 5 LAC
2 BUF over 3 BAL

2 BUF over 1 KC

Super Bowl

2 PHI over 2 BUF
 
@Scoresman I would probably pick the same things as you did. I'm still waffling with the TB/WAS game and the LAR/MIN game.

That loss last night for MIN had to be so deflating that I think their goose might be cooked. Rams rested their guys.

Also, Jayden Daniels is a wildcard this playoffs. I could see him pulling the WC upset this week (though I don't have a strong feeling about it).

Yeah, the matchup I feel the least confident in is MIN/LAR. I see it as a genuine tossup.

My dark horse team is the Chargers. In the playoff contest strategy thread I post statisitical indicators that have historically led to playoff success and they have the most consistency in their numbers across all the stats. But they would most likely get KC in the div round.

The AFC situation is almost exactly like last year when it comes to the Chiefs and other top seeds. The Chiefs have pretty middling stats coming into the playoffs. EXACTLY the same situation as last year. But they have Mahomes. I'm finding it hard not to have them at least make the Superbowl due to the Mahomes factor alone.
 
AFC

Bills over Broncos
Ravens over Stillers
Chargers over Texans

Ravens over Bills
Chargers over Chiefs

Ravens over Chargers

NFC

Packers over Eagles
Bucs over Wash
Rams over Vikes

Lions over Packers
Bucs over Rams

Bucs over Lions :Homer:


Bucs over Ravens




If I’m not being a homer change it to Ravens over Lions in the SB
 
Everyone not picking the Chiefs to get to the SB, I'd like to hear the reasoning.

Not that I vehemently disagree because so much can happen, but what's different this year than the last couple years that is making their situation worse? Last year, they won it all after a disappointing regular season, this year they'll have one less game to play to get there.

The other factor is that last year, BAL and SF were historically great teams coming into the playoffs. Both top 5/10 in DVOA of all playoff teams in history. KC beat them both. It just seems like between Reid and Mahomes, they just know what they need to do and turn it up when they need to.
 
NFC

Pack over Eagles 20-13
Wash over Bucs 27-20
Rams over Vikes 35-30

Pack over Lions 30-27
Wash over Rams 27-24

Pack over Wash 17-14

AFC

Buff over Den 30-10
Balt over Pitt 20-3
LAC over Houston 23-7

KC over LAC 20-17
Balt over Buff 38-35
Balt over KC 17-14

SB

Balt over GB 40-10
 
Rather than put up what I THINK will happen
I'm going to post what I WANT to happen
And to be transparent I don't have a horse in this race:

AFC

Texans over Chargers
Ravens over Steelers
Bills over Broncos

Chiefs over Texans
Bills over Ravens

Bills over Chiefs

NFC

Eagles over Packers
Bucs over Commanders
Rams over Vikings

Lions over Rams
Bucs over Eagles

Lions over Bucs

SB

Somebody gonna win their first Super Bowl

Lions over Bills in double overtime
 
Rather than put up what I THINK will happen
I'm going to post what I WANT to happen
And to be transparent I don't have a horse in this race:

AFC

Texans over Chargers
Ravens over Steelers
Bills over Broncos

Chiefs over Texans
Bills over Ravens

Bills over Chiefs

NFC

Eagles over Packers
Bucs over Commanders
Rams over Vikings

Lions over Rams
Bucs over Eagles

Lions over Bucs

SB

Somebody gonna win their first Super Bowl

Lions over Bills in double overtime
Why the double OT? You want to torture Bills fans even more?
 
Some statistics that already make me want to change my predictions.

The #1 and #2 teams in point differential make the Superbowl 50% of the time. In the AFC, it's BUF and BAL both tied at +157. In the NFC, it's DET and PHI at 222, and 160. KC is way lower at 59.

If a number one seed also has the #1 Point Differential, they make the Superbowl about 70% of the time. This applies to DET this year. KC's point differential is a very average +59.

76% of past Superbowl winners had an end of season win streak of 3 or more games. This year, that list includes BAL, DET, WAS, and LAC.

70% of teams making the Superbowl have had a TO Differential of at least +10. Teams of note that don't make the cut here are KC, BAL, and DET.
 
Be interesting to see a betting bracket with teams & +/-

Here are the current odds:
LAC-3 / HOU +3
BAL -10 / PIT +10
BUF -9 / DEN +9
PHI -4.5 / GB -5.5
TB -3 / WAS +3
MIN -1.5 / LAR +1.5

KC / DET - BYE
 
Wildcard Weekend
HOU over LAC
BAL over PITT
BUF over DEN
PHI over GB and it won't be close, Hurts has had a few weeks to rest up and get focused, Saquon and AJ are going to have huge days
TB over WAS but I think Daniels will show he is a force going into 2025
MN over LAR

Semi-Finals
KC over HOU, easily
BUF over BAL, either way won't matter
MN over DET, the rematch!
TB over PHI, they've done it a few times in the Playoffs

AFCC/NFCC
KC over BUF, until proven otherwise in the Playoffs
TB over MN, this game would be played in Tampa

Super Bowl
TB over KC, Chiefs last Super Bowl loss was against the Bucs

-Without being a homer, I would say KC vs DET and I'm not sure how that ends
Who have the Lions lost to at home this season? The Bucs have a lot of the "Wildcard/IT" factor if they can get things rolling
 
LAC over HOU, BAL over PIT, BUF over DEN

KC over LAC, BAL over BUF

BAL over KC

LAR over MIN, WAS over TB, PHI over GB

DET over WAS, PHI over LAR

DET over PHI

SB - BAL over DET

I usually pick a lower seed to get hot and win 4 in a row, but just don't see that from this year's group. AFC top is too talented, and the NFC teams have a lot of question marks.
 
Wild Card

HOU over LAC
BAL over PIT
DEN over BUF

MIN over LAR
WAS over TB
GB over PHI (if Love plays). PHI over GB (if Love does not play)

Divisional

KC over DEN
BAL over HOU

DET over GB
MIN over WASH

Championship

KC over BAL
DET over MIN

Superbowl

KC over DET
 
70% of teams making the Superbowl have had a TO Differential of at least +10. Teams of note that don't make the cut here are KC, BAL, and DET.

Lions had the 6th fewest giveaways (15) and the 10th most takeaways (24), but yep, didn't make the +10 cutoff.

Chiefs and Ravens were +6.
 
Copied format from my friend, @BobbyLayne

Wild Card


LAC 27, HOU 12
BAL 31, PIT 12
BUF 34, DEN 10

MIN 21 LAR 17
TB 31 WAS 27
PHI 41 GB 17

Divisional

LAC 27 KC 20
BAL 37 BUF 24

DET 41 MIN 20
PHI 31 TB 20

Championship

BAL 27 LAC 13
DET 30 PHI 27

Superbowl

DET 41 BAL 37
 
Everyone not picking the Chiefs to get to the SB, I'd like to hear the reasoning.

Not that I vehemently disagree because so much can happen, but what's different this year than the last couple years that is making their situation worse? Last year, they won it all after a disappointing regular season, this year they'll have one less game to play to get there.

The other factor is that last year, BAL and SF were historically great teams coming into the playoffs. Both top 5/10 in DVOA of all playoff teams in history. KC beat them both. It just seems like between Reid and Mahomes, they just know what they need to do and turn it up when they need to.
Bumping this specific post....
 
Everyone not picking the Chiefs to get to the SB, I'd like to hear the reasoning.

Not that I vehemently disagree because so much can happen, but what's different this year than the last couple years that is making their situation worse? Last year, they won it all after a disappointing regular season, this year they'll have one less game to play to get there.

The other factor is that last year, BAL and SF were historically great teams coming into the playoffs. Both top 5/10 in DVOA of all playoff teams in history. KC beat them both. It just seems like between Reid and Mahomes, they just know what they need to do and turn it up when they need to.
Bumping this specific post....

They have won more than a year ago, but many games have been very close. Think they may be flat after sitting for three weeks, resting lots of starters in week 18 and then having the bye.
 
Everyone not picking the Chiefs to get to the SB, I'd like to hear the reasoning.

Not that I vehemently disagree because so much can happen, but what's different this year than the last couple years that is making their situation worse? Last year, they won it all after a disappointing regular season, this year they'll have one less game to play to get there.

The other factor is that last year, BAL and SF were historically great teams coming into the playoffs. Both top 5/10 in DVOA of all playoff teams in history. KC beat them both. It just seems like between Reid and Mahomes, they just know what they need to do and turn it up when they need to.
Bumping this specific post....
I'm not picking the Chiefs and here is why:

1. Too much turmoil on the O-line

2. Defensive secondary is young and simply not good. Injuries are gonna catch up here.

3. Butker is not the same after his knee injury

4. Nagy is on the sidelines. His mere presence reduces the odds of winning at least 20%

5. They haven't been sacking the QB. Complete opposite of last year.

6. Worthy doesn't know where the sidelines are.

7. Kelce looks like he's 60

They've looked worse than last year, yet here we are. You simply cannot have that many close calls and still win a Super Bowl. It catches up to them in this playoff.
 
Last edited:
Wild Card

LAC 30, HOU 17
BAL 27, PIT 16
DEN 24, BUF 23

MIN 33 LAR 20
TB 30 WAS 27
PHI 27 GB 20

Divisional

KC 17 DEN 13
BAL 33 LAC 27

MIN 37 DET 34
PHI 24 TB 16

Championship

BAL 27 KC 21
MIN 28 PHI 23

Superbowl

BAL 34 MIN 31
 
What do people think about a potential BUF/BAL Divisional game, even if you're not predicting it? What makes you lean one way or another? I think this is one of the more important matchups of the playoffs. The loser plays only 2 games tops. A lot of people are going to be picking Ravens and Bills in these FF playoff games so being on the right side of this seems important.

I think the matchup is a coin toss, I would normally pick BAL, but with it being played in Buffalo, I don't know.
 
What do people think about a potential BUF/BAL Divisional game, even if you're not predicting it? What makes you lean one way or another? I think this is one of the more important matchups of the playoffs. The loser plays only 2 games tops. A lot of people are going to be picking Ravens and Bills in these FF playoff games so being on the right side of this seems important.

I think the matchup is a coin toss, I would normally pick BAL, but with it being played in Buffalo, I don't know.

I hope its the ravens. I think they have the firepower to.take down the chiefs. Bills are great but i dont think they have the pop. All that matters to me in the afc is the chiefs losing.
 
Wild Card
LAC 23 Hou 7
Bal 28 Pit 10
Buf 17 Den 14

LAR 30 Min 28
TB 27 Was 23
Phi 33 GB 13

Divisional
LAC 23 KC 21
Buf 35 Bal 34

Det 28 LAR 13
Phi 20 TB 3

Championship
Buf 17 LAC 14
Phi 21 Det 20

Super Bowl
Buf 27 Phi 20
 
Everyone not picking the Chiefs to get to the SB, I'd like to hear the reasoning.

Not that I vehemently disagree because so much can happen, but what's different this year than the last couple years that is making their situation worse? Last year, they won it all after a disappointing regular season, this year they'll have one less game to play to get there.

The other factor is that last year, BAL and SF were historically great teams coming into the playoffs. Both top 5/10 in DVOA of all playoff teams in history. KC beat them both. It just seems like between Reid and Mahomes, they just know what they need to do and turn it up when they need to.
Bumping this specific post....
I'm not picking the Chiefs and here is why:

1. Reverse jinx, like I always do

Fixed it for you.
 
What do people think about a potential BUF/BAL Divisional game, even if you're not predicting it? What makes you lean one way or another? I think this is one of the more important matchups of the playoffs. The loser plays only 2 games tops. A lot of people are going to be picking Ravens and Bills in these FF playoff games so being on the right side of this seems important.

I think the matchup is a coin toss, I would normally pick BAL, but with it being played in Buffalo, I don't know.

I'd take BAL in that matchup. They'll control the clock with the run game and keep Josh Allen off the field.
 
Everyone not picking the Chiefs to get to the SB, I'd like to hear the reasoning.

Not that I vehemently disagree because so much can happen, but what's different this year than the last couple years that is making their situation worse? Last year, they won it all after a disappointing regular season, this year they'll have one less game to play to get there.

The other factor is that last year, BAL and SF were historically great teams coming into the playoffs. Both top 5/10 in DVOA of all playoff teams in history. KC beat them both. It just seems like between Reid and Mahomes, they just know what they need to do and turn it up when they need to.
I think KC represents the AFC again unless they face Baltimore. Ravens should have won last year but beat themselves.

Reason I think KC wins… Steelers are going to break out of the funk and beat Baltimore Saturday night.
 
Wild Card
LAC over HOU - Stroud's been in a sophomore slump since week 7; Herbert's been climbing the rankings. LAC has better record on the road.
BAL over PIT - Honestly, it would take a BAL meltdown for PIT to win this one. PIT visited BAL just a few weeks ago and got whaled 34-17.
BUF over DEN - BUF is perfect at home this year, while DEN is 4-5 on the road. DEN's D is tough, but only DET has scored more than BUF.

LAR over MIN - LAR is 8-3 with the Nacua/Kupp duo and 2/4 without. Still, I expect Darnold to have a good game after his sad showing vs DET.
TB over WAS - Toughest pick for me this round. In the end, I simply went with the home team. Should be the highest scoring game of the week.
PHI over GB - I expect Hurts back and you know Saquon can't wait to play his first home playoff game of his career. Love is going to struggle.

Divisional
LAC over KC - A homer pick, but not crazy. LAC has scored more, while giving up less. Their 2 regular season games were close, but LAC will pull it off.
BUF over BAL - I think this should be the AFCCG. Someone has to lose. I am not going against Josh Allen at home, but if anyone can, it's Lamar Jackson.

DET over LAR - DET will not lose at home, so they will be making it to the SB. Funny though, they are the only team that's perfect on the road this year.
PHI over TB - PHI gets out to an early lead, and Baker Mayfield has to put it up 45 times to keep pace. PHI controls the game from start to finish.

Championship
BUF over LAC - The Chargers' cinderella story comes to a close on the frozen tundra in BUF. In a low scoring affair, BUF has a better game on the ground.
DET over PHI - Since their relatively slow offensive start this year (62 points in 3 games), they have averaged 35.9 PPG over the last 14 games. Insane!

Superbowl
DET over BUF - If this game were in the snow, I may lean BUF, but DET is going to get their first SB win in New Orleans. Poor BUF gets their 5th loss.
 
In my head SB comes down to KC or Bal vs Det or Was. I’ve been blown away by Jayden Daniels. Rookie QBs aren’t supposed to win playoff games but I think he breaks the mold.

Super Bowl LIX Champions - Washington defeats KC Chiefs
MVP Jayden Daniels

Championship Round
Was defeats Phi
KC defeats Buffalo

Divisional Round
Buffalo defeats LA Chargers
KC defeats Pittsburgh
Philadelphia defeats Minnesota
Washington defeats Detroit - key game if Detroit pulls out a W, they will be in the Super Bowl

Wild Card Round
Buffalo defeats Denver
LA Chargers defeat Houston
Pittsburgh defeats Baltimore - key game if Pittsburgh drops the ball, Baltimore will make the Super Bowl defeating Buffalo and KC
Minnesota defeats LA Rams
Washington defeats Tampa Bay
Philadelphia defeats Green Bay
 
Talk matchups, overrated, underrated teams, dark horses, etc.

Wild Card

LAC over HOU
BAL over PIT
BUF over DEN

MIN over LAR
TB over WAS
PHI over GB

Divisional

KC over LAC - Any other matchup I take LAC with the upset.
BAL over BUF

DET over MIN
PHI over TB

Championship

KC over BAL
PHI over DET

Superbowl

PHI over KC
I was with you until the championship games. I flip both of those and have BAL beating DET for the title.
 
Everyone not picking the Chiefs to get to the SB, I'd like to hear the reasoning.

Not that I vehemently disagree because so much can happen, but what's different this year than the last couple years that is making their situation worse? Last year, they won it all after a disappointing regular season, this year they'll have one less game to play to get there.

The other factor is that last year, BAL and SF were historically great teams coming into the playoffs. Both top 5/10 in DVOA of all playoff teams in history. KC beat them both. It just seems like between Reid and Mahomes, they just know what they need to do and turn it up when they need to.
Bumping this specific post....
The Chiefs just aren't that good. Buffalo and Baltimore are significantly better teams. Could KC win the conference? Sure. I just think they're the third best team in the AFC over 18 games.
 
Everyone not picking the Chiefs to get to the SB, I'd like to hear the reasoning.

Not that I vehemently disagree because so much can happen, but what's different this year than the last couple years that is making their situation worse? Last year, they won it all after a disappointing regular season, this year they'll have one less game to play to get there.

The other factor is that last year, BAL and SF were historically great teams coming into the playoffs. Both top 5/10 in DVOA of all playoff teams in history. KC beat them both. It just seems like between Reid and Mahomes, they just know what they need to do and turn it up when they need to.
Bumping this specific post....
The Chiefs just aren't that good. Buffalo and Baltimore are significantly better teams. Could KC win the conference? Sure. I just think they're the third best team in the AFC over 18 games.

Same was true last year. Although some are saying the Chiefs are worse this year despite the record.

I think it comes down to Reid and Mahomes and how they both excel at playoff football.
 
Super Bowl
Lions defeat Chiefs

Championship
Chiefs defeat Bills
Lions defeat Eagles

Divisional
Chiefs defeat Chargers
Bills defeat Ravens
Lions defeat Commanders
Eagles defeat Rams

Wild Card
Bills defeat Broncos
Chargers defeat Texans
Ravens defeat Steelers
Rams defeat Vikings
Commanders defeat Buccaneers
Eagles defeat Packers


I feel pretty confident about the first round, though Minnesota finding a way is my make/break. I think the Commanders are that surprise team that pulls off the lone true feeling upset this weekend to throw a wrench into the divisional round.

What I'm hoping happens is we get a Bills/Lions Super Bowl so we know for certain one of those franchises finally gets across the line for its fans. I just have a hard time thinking Mahomes drops the ball early, though the Bills could be the team to finally pull that off. Come the Super Bowl, something is just gelling with the Lions this year and injuries haven't yet slowed them down. Between the return of some injured pieces, a bye, and their momentum that continued from last year, I think they pull it off this year and prevent the three peat.
 
Super Bowl
Lions defeat Chiefs

Championship
Chiefs defeat Bills
Lions defeat Eagles

Divisional
Chiefs defeat Chargers
Bills defeat Ravens
Lions defeat Commanders
Eagles defeat Rams

Wild Card
Bills defeat Broncos
Chargers defeat Texans
Ravens defeat Steelers
Rams defeat Vikings
Commanders defeat Buccaneers
Eagles defeat Packers


I feel pretty confident about the first round, though Minnesota finding a way is my make/break. I think the Commanders are that surprise team that pulls off the lone true feeling upset this weekend to throw a wrench into the divisional round.

What I'm hoping happens is we get a Bills/Lions Super Bowl so we know for certain one of those franchises finally gets across the line for its fans. I just have a hard time thinking Mahomes drops the ball early, though the Bills could be the team to finally pull that off. Come the Super Bowl, something is just gelling with the Lions this year and injuries haven't yet slowed them down. Between the return of some injured pieces, a bye, and their momentum that continued from last year, I think they pull it off this year and prevent the three peat.

Nice analysis to go with your picks. Why are you picking the Bills over the Ravens in the Divisional Round? That's been one of my biggest tossups.
 
Super Bowl
Lions defeat Chiefs

Championship
Chiefs defeat Bills
Lions defeat Eagles

Divisional
Chiefs defeat Chargers
Bills defeat Ravens
Lions defeat Commanders
Eagles defeat Rams

Wild Card
Bills defeat Broncos
Chargers defeat Texans
Ravens defeat Steelers
Rams defeat Vikings
Commanders defeat Buccaneers
Eagles defeat Packers


I feel pretty confident about the first round, though Minnesota finding a way is my make/break. I think the Commanders are that surprise team that pulls off the lone true feeling upset this weekend to throw a wrench into the divisional round.

What I'm hoping happens is we get a Bills/Lions Super Bowl so we know for certain one of those franchises finally gets across the line for its fans. I just have a hard time thinking Mahomes drops the ball early, though the Bills could be the team to finally pull that off. Come the Super Bowl, something is just gelling with the Lions this year and injuries haven't yet slowed them down. Between the return of some injured pieces, a bye, and their momentum that continued from last year, I think they pull it off this year and prevent the three peat.

Nice analysis to go with your picks. Why are you picking the Bills over the Ravens in the Divisional Round? That's been one of my biggest tossups.
The Bills have already played two games this year with a final score of forty-something to forty-something. That divisional game might be a third.
 
Super Bowl
Lions defeat Chiefs

Championship
Chiefs defeat Bills
Lions defeat Eagles

Divisional
Chiefs defeat Chargers
Bills defeat Ravens
Lions defeat Commanders
Eagles defeat Rams

Wild Card
Bills defeat Broncos
Chargers defeat Texans
Ravens defeat Steelers
Rams defeat Vikings
Commanders defeat Buccaneers
Eagles defeat Packers


I feel pretty confident about the first round, though Minnesota finding a way is my make/break. I think the Commanders are that surprise team that pulls off the lone true feeling upset this weekend to throw a wrench into the divisional round.

What I'm hoping happens is we get a Bills/Lions Super Bowl so we know for certain one of those franchises finally gets across the line for its fans. I just have a hard time thinking Mahomes drops the ball early, though the Bills could be the team to finally pull that off. Come the Super Bowl, something is just gelling with the Lions this year and injuries haven't yet slowed them down. Between the return of some injured pieces, a bye, and their momentum that continued from last year, I think they pull it off this year and prevent the three peat.

Nice analysis to go with your picks. Why are you picking the Bills over the Ravens in the Divisional Round? That's been one of my biggest tossups.
The Ravens have the playoff yips. That whole week would not be about why Buffalo matches up X's or O's in a specific way, but it'll be, "Will Lamar and Harbaugh drop the ball again?" I think the Ravens are improved and neutral field I probably pick them, but it's so close, it'd be in Buffalo, and the aforementioned yips. Something about them in the playoffs it make it hard to truly pick for them and given how close the two teams feel like they are, I go with the Bills.
 
Super Bowl
Lions defeat Chiefs

Championship
Chiefs defeat Bills
Lions defeat Eagles

Divisional
Chiefs defeat Chargers
Bills defeat Ravens
Lions defeat Commanders
Eagles defeat Rams

Wild Card
Bills defeat Broncos
Chargers defeat Texans
Ravens defeat Steelers
Rams defeat Vikings
Commanders defeat Buccaneers
Eagles defeat Packers


I feel pretty confident about the first round, though Minnesota finding a way is my make/break. I think the Commanders are that surprise team that pulls off the lone true feeling upset this weekend to throw a wrench into the divisional round.

What I'm hoping happens is we get a Bills/Lions Super Bowl so we know for certain one of those franchises finally gets across the line for its fans. I just have a hard time thinking Mahomes drops the ball early, though the Bills could be the team to finally pull that off. Come the Super Bowl, something is just gelling with the Lions this year and injuries haven't yet slowed them down. Between the return of some injured pieces, a bye, and their momentum that continued from last year, I think they pull it off this year and prevent the three peat.

Nice analysis to go with your picks. Why are you picking the Bills over the Ravens in the Divisional Round? That's been one of my biggest tossups.
The Ravens have the playoff yips. That whole week would not be about why Buffalo matches up X's or O's in a specific way, but it'll be, "Will Lamar and Harbaugh drop the ball again?" I think the Ravens are improved and neutral field I probably pick them, but it's so close, it'd be in Buffalo, and the aforementioned yips. Something about them in the playoffs it make it hard to truly pick for them and given how close the two teams feel like they are, I go with the Bills.

Yeah, I see it as incredibly close. I think you can say the Bills have had the yips too in recent playoffs, and the Ravens are coming into the playoffs slightly hotter. But yeah, a tossup essentially.
 
AFC

Wild Card Round

Texans 23. Chargers 19
Ravens 25, Steelers 21
Bills 24, Broncos 23

Divisional Round

Bills 31, Ravens 25 (OT)
Chiefs 22, Texans 20

Championship

Chiefs 25, Bills 21

NFC

Wild Card Round

Rams 24, Vikings 21
Buccaneers 26, Commanders 25
Eagles 24, Packers 22

Divisional Round

Eagles 24, Buccaneers 23
Lions 28, Rams 20

Championship

Lions 25, Eagles 23

Super Bowl

Lions 26, Chiefs 20
 
What do people think about a potential BUF/BAL Divisional game, even if you're not predicting it? What makes you lean one way or another?
If they advance I like Buffalo, especially if the elements are a factor. I want to say it was some time back, on the NFL Network an analyst said the Bills defense is particularly susceptible to speed. Looking into Henry a bit, the Raven are one of only three teams that passed the ball less than 50% of the time. Their 32.3 runs a game is 2nd most. Yet, according to playerprofiler.com Henry is, on avg. facing 6.1 defenders in the box. It's as if everyone has to cheat up to get him stopped & when they do, Jackson dials out & into the right play.

He had 175 carries in the 2nd half of games & 146 in the 1st half (nfl.com). Only 64 carries when they were behind (how often was that the case?). In any event, more often than not touches when they're ahead & in the 2nd half vs lighter fronts. But he's also avg'd 5.2 yds per vs stacked fronts. Winning up front is paramount, the Ravens run blocking has been great. Henry is strong with great length, sometimes is able to keep his lower half clean with a stiff-arm. Defenders that try to corral him up around the shoulders get rag-dolled.

But a lot of surface area to hit, a 30-yr-old player, very big with the gait of a WR, a very long stride for a ball-carrier. Suddenness, change of direction are not strengths. Huge would be to get him thinking there's room inside but then has to adjust & move laterally. Get this guy moving laterally, force him wide & run him down. Does Buffalo have a winner or two up front, like a Jalen Carter they can move around & account for more space? Thing is, Jackson & Henry can combine for a lot of production & 3 TDs. But if 21pts is all they score, Josh Allen & the offense should do enough to win. Jackson, Flowers, Bateman & Hill who provide the Ravens the speed & quickness that purportedly gives Buffalo fits. If the current pattern holds, with a considerable wobble in the vortex, who knows, it could be 9 degrees with a windchill of -4 below.

Like others, Buffalo vs Detroit is my guess. I mean KC & Philly are just as likely imo. Denver, Washington & the Chargers are dangerous teams. Green Bay & Tampa, not quite seeing it as much. Minnesota & the Rams are interesting too.
 
Super Bowl
Lions defeat Chiefs

Championship
Chiefs defeat Bills
Lions defeat Eagles

Divisional
Chiefs defeat Chargers
Bills defeat Ravens
Lions defeat Commanders
Eagles defeat Rams

Wild Card
Bills defeat Broncos
Chargers defeat Texans
Ravens defeat Steelers
Rams defeat Vikings
Commanders defeat Buccaneers
Eagles defeat Packers


I feel pretty confident about the first round, though Minnesota finding a way is my make/break. I think the Commanders are that surprise team that pulls off the lone true feeling upset this weekend to throw a wrench into the divisional round.

What I'm hoping happens is we get a Bills/Lions Super Bowl so we know for certain one of those franchises finally gets across the line for its fans. I just have a hard time thinking Mahomes drops the ball early, though the Bills could be the team to finally pull that off. Come the Super Bowl, something is just gelling with the Lions this year and injuries haven't yet slowed them down. Between the return of some injured pieces, a bye, and their momentum that continued from last year, I think they pull it off this year and prevent the three peat.

Nice analysis to go with your picks. Why are you picking the Bills over the Ravens in the Divisional Round? That's been one of my biggest tossups.
The Ravens did beat them 35-10 this year with 420+ yards of offense despite only 3 pass attempts in the 4th quarter (one of them by Josh Johnson)
 
Philly & Baltimore seem like the best bets to cover - Packers & Steelers on the wrong side momentum

Denver is a bit of a matchup problem for Buffalo, but the Bills should win easily

Bucs-Commanders could be a fun one with lots of points

Texans-Chargers & Rams-Vikings are the hardest calls IMO, really comes down to fewest mistakes
 
ESPN Analytics win probabilities for this weekend's games . . .

BAL - 72.2%
BUF - 68.1%
TBB - 58.3%
MIN - 53.9%
LAC - 52.8%
PHI - 51.2%
 
What I want
AFC

Bills over Broncos
Ravens over Stealers
Chargers over Texans

Ravens over Bills
Chargers over Chiefs

Ravens over Chargers

NFC

Packers over eagles
Bucs over commanders
Vikings over Rams

Lions over packers
Bucs ove Vikings

Lions over Bucs

🦁 🏆 over 🐦‍⬛

What I think

AFC

Bills over Broncos
Ravens over Steelers
Chargers over Texans

Ravens over Bills
Chiefs over chargers

Ravens over chiefs

NFC

Eagles over packers
Bucs over Wash
Vikings over rams

Lions over Vikings
Eagles over Bucs

Lions over eagles

🦁 🏆 over 🐦‍⬛
 

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