My team:
1.12 Bengals, Cincinnati, TMQB, CIN - Drafted as TMQB5. Finished last season as TMQB6 in total points but TMQB2 in ppg. Betting on the playoffs, which should mean a top 5 overall scorer in this format.
2.5 Kelce, Travis, TE, KC - Drafted as TE5. Despite the generally held view that he had a down season last year, he finished as TE3 and the 6th overall non-QB scorer. The risk here is that he is 36, but he says he is rededicated to football. Expecting playoff points.
3.12 Tee Higgins, WR, ATL - Drafted as WR16. Finished last season as WR23 in total points, but missed 5 games and was WR4 in ppg. I thought he was easily the BPA considering the combination of age, experience, and situation (QB). Like I said for my first pick, betting on playoff points.
4.5 DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI - Drafted as WR20. Finished last season as WR19 in total points despite missing 4 games and was WR25 in ppg. I liked his combination of age and situation better than the other WRs worth considering here. Expecting playoff points.
5.12 Rome Odunze, WR, CHI - Drafted as WR34. Finished last season as WR49 in total points and WR61 in ppg. But that was with a dysfunctional coaching staff and also with Keenan Allen getting 121 targets. Allen is gone and Ben Johnson is now the head coach. I'm betting those things help Odunze to take a second season jump. Playoff points are possible, but perhaps unlikely.
6.5 Chargers, Los Angeles, TMQB, LAC - Most important here, I am a Chargers fan, and liked the idea of drafting the Chargers TMQB. Drafted as TMQB13. Finished last season as TMQB15 in total points and TMQB16 in ppg. However, Herbert missed time in camp and preseason due to injury and played through a high ankle sprain he suffered in week 2. Plus, early on, the players were adjusting to each other (new players) and to the new offense. He played a bit better after the bye. The team upgraded a number of passing targets in the offseason, adding WR Allen, TEs Conklin and Gadsden, and rookie WRs Harris and Lambert-Smith. If Herbert is healthy, in his second year in the offense, with better targets, the Chargers TMQB should be better. We saw this already in game 1. Expecting playoff points.
7.12 J.K. Dobbins, RB, DEN - Drafted as RB30. Finished last season as RB24 in total points but missed 4 games and was RB19 in ppg. He will obviously share RB duties with rookie Harvey, which probably limits his potential ceiling. But waiting this long to draft my first RB ensures that you will be drafting players with risk. Playoff points are possible.
8.5 Kaleb Johnson, RB, PIT - Drafted as RB32. He is theoretically stepping into the Najee Harris role in Pittsburgh, and Harris was RB19 last season in total points. Expecting playoff points.
9.12 Darnell Mooney, WR, ATL - Drafted as WR55. Finished last season as WR35 in total points and WR40 in ppg. Betting that he will perform similarly with Penix as he did with Cousins. Playoff points are possible.
10.5 Theo Johnson, TE, NYG - Drafted as TE29. Finished as TE38 last season, but missed the final 5 games. More importantly, he was playing well before his injury, averaging 12.72 ppg in his last 5 games. Waller averaged 13.77 ppg in this offense in 2023, and I think Theo can do that, especially since QB play should be at least marginally upgraded. No playoff points here.
11.12 Tank Bigsby, RB, JAX - Drafted as RB46. Finished last season as RB31 in total points and gets an upgraded offensive coaching staff. Playoff points are unlikely.
12.5 Dalton Schultz, TE, HOU - Drafted as TE33. Finished last season as TE17 in total points. Playoff points are possible.
13.12 Matt Gay, PK, WAS - Drafted as PK12. Finished last season as PK15, but for IND. Now, he is the WAS PK. WAS had 4 PKs combine for 214 points in this format last season, which was more than PK1, Aubrey, who had 206 points. Expecting playoff points.
14.5 Chad Ryland, PK, ARI - Drafted as PK15. Finished last season as PK19, but he and Prater combined for 168 points, which would have ranked as PK11 last season. There is some potential for an improved offense that leads to more PK opportunities. Not counting on playoff points. With 22 picks before my next pick, I felt I had to pick my second PK to avoid getting one of the bottom PKs.
15.12 Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, ATL - Drafted as WR77. Finished last season as WR50 in total points. I had him on my predraft list for my 12.5 pick, so I obviously see him as a great value here. He also provides a bit of insurance against a Mooney injury. Playoff points are possible.
16.5 Rico Dowdle, RB, CAR - Drafted as RB56. Finished last season as RB23 in total points. He left Dallas and is now a backup to Hubbard in CAR, so he isn't likely to repeat that finish if Hubbard stays healthy, but he should have a role, especially since CAR gave him $6.5M (more than Najee Harris got, for example). Hoping for 75+ points here. No Playoff points.
17.12 Giants, DST, NYG - Drafted as DST24. Finished last season as DST28, and they have a very tough schedule. However, they also have a very good defensive roster, and I anticipate they will outperform this draft position. No playoff points.
18.5 Titans, DST, TEN - Drafted as DST30. Finished last season as DST23. What can one expect from the 30th DST drafted? Hoping for 100+ points. No playoff points.
TMQB - Bengals, Chargers
RB - Dobbins, Kaleb Johnson, Bigsby, Dowdle
WR - Higgins, DeVonta Smith, Odunze, Mooney, McCloud
TE - Kelce, Theo Johnson, Schultz
PK - Gay, Ryland
DST - Giants, Titans
Last year, this roster scored 3340.92 points, obviously counting 0 for Kaleb Johnson. That would have ranked #4 even without Johnson. So all I need is complete good health and a few improved performances (e.g., Herbert, Theo, Rome...). Piece of cake.
