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2025 Detroit Lions: 0-0 HOF Game on tape, as DC said..."We got work to do" (46 Viewers)

BobbyLayne said:
TartanLion said:
BobbyLayne said:
TartanLion said:
- Derek Carr
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I'm with ya but the counterargument is Justin Fields and Jordan Love. Those two are bottom third in QBR and we revived their seasons. Watching the Bears last night it's a wonder how we gave up 26 to them. The version of Love we saw on Thanksgiving hasn't existed all year, his accuracy was uncanny.

One area the Saints have struggled with is generating a pass rush. Only the Bears have fewer sacks than their 18. We're not much better with 23, tied for 26th. Our pressure rate is much high (24.8% - 6th v 18.2% - 25th) but it seems like ours is a function of getting pressure late. We're middle of the pack in QB hits, we just don't ge home. We blitzed only slightly more than the Saints; through 11 games, 104 v 94 for New Orleans. Where they have excelled and what has kept them in games is generating turnovers. They have 20 (4th best), we have 12 (28th.)

8-time pro bowl DE Cam Jordan has just 2 sacks on the year, at 34 he may be nearing the end. He was being evaluated for an ankle yesterday so monitor the practice reports.
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It was more of a slightly flippant, glib comment tbh. I just don’t like Carr 😂
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Pretty sure anyone who has held shares of him at any point in his career feels the same. Even when he’s rolling (& he’s decidedly not in 2023), sooner or later he implodes with a terrible game.

Thats a contract that’s hard to understand. 4 years of mediocrity, at best.
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Brad Holmes is correct when he said "In this league it is a lot easier to get worse at QB than to get better"
 
BobbyLayne said:
TartanLion said:
BobbyLayne said:
TartanLion said:
- Derek Carr
Click to expand...

I'm with ya but the counterargument is Justin Fields and Jordan Love. Those two are bottom third in QBR and we revived their seasons. Watching the Bears last night it's a wonder how we gave up 26 to them. The version of Love we saw on Thanksgiving hasn't existed all year, his accuracy was uncanny.

One area the Saints have struggled with is generating a pass rush. Only the Bears have fewer sacks than their 18. We're not much better with 23, tied for 26th. Our pressure rate is much high (24.8% - 6th v 18.2% - 25th) but it seems like ours is a function of getting pressure late. We're middle of the pack in QB hits, we just don't ge home. We blitzed only slightly more than the Saints; through 11 games, 104 v 94 for New Orleans. Where they have excelled and what has kept them in games is generating turnovers. They have 20 (4th best), we have 12 (28th.)

8-time pro bowl DE Cam Jordan has just 2 sacks on the year, at 34 he may be nearing the end. He was being evaluated for an ankle yesterday so monitor the practice reports.
Click to expand...

It was more of a slightly flippant, glib comment tbh. I just don’t like Carr 😂
Click to expand...

Pretty sure anyone who has held shares of him at any point in his career feels the same. Even when he’s rolling (& he’s decidedly not in 2023), sooner or later he implodes with a terrible game.

Thats a contract that’s hard to understand. 4 years of mediocrity, at best.
Click to expand...

Middling team pays for middling QB. Made no sense. He’s been a perennial bench QB for me in a 1QB dynasty league for like 5 years. And his face annoys me.
 
It would take a catastrophic failure for the Eagles to not end up with the #1. It would also take a full meltdown for the Lions not to win their division. So basically the remainder of the season is to see if we will be the #2 or #3 seed.

A major focus needs to be being as healthy as possible going into the playoffs, which includes getting Gardner-Johnson and Houston on the field. The Lions have shown they have no depth at all levels of the defense. We have also shown our OL starts to get a little shakey even with just one injury. IMHO, it would be wise to sign a couple of these older veterans who have been recently cut or quasi-retired at least for depth. Probably hard to find the right culture fit, but for a rental we probably should concede they will not be perfect.
 
Detroit’s highest man rates of the season:
Packers (Week 12): 51.9 percent
Panthers: 36.9 percent
Ravens: 36.4 percent
Chargers: 35.3 percent

Opposing QB EPA/DB:
Love: 0.34 (2nd best of year)
Young: 0.05 (best)
Lamar: 0.73 (best)
Herbert: 0.44 (best)
 
Hypothetical Question?

A guy I work with is not a Goff fan, I mean he likes what he has done but does not want him extended unless it is a team friendly deal. Said after next season Hooker will have watched one season and backed up another and will be ready.

Then he states after next season Goff won`t be able to command 40-45 million on the open market. So he asks me where or what team would give him a 200 million dollar deal as a UFA?

I did not have time to think about the answer on the spot. Asking Lions fans if you think he would get a big $$$$$ UFA deal, if so what team would pony up?

Need some ammo for tomorrow.
 
Last edited:
Da Guru said:
Hypothetical Question?

A guy I work with is not a Goff fan, I mean he likes what he has done but does not want him extended unless it is a team friendly deal. Said after next season Hooker will have watched one season and backed up another and will be ready.

Then he states after next season Goff won`t be able to command 40-45 million on the open market. So he asks me where or what team would give him a 200 milliob doallr deal as a UFA?

I did not have time to think about the answer on the spot. Asking Lions fans if you think he would get a big $$$$$ UFA deal, if so what team would pony up?

Need some ammo for tomorrow.
Click to expand...
I honestly don't know where Goff would fit best outside of Detroit. He seems to be made for the Ben Johnson offense that will more than likely continue after Ben himself is gone. And since Holmes is his biggest fan I'd be really surprised if Goff left, a compromise would probably be figured out for him to stay here. Hooker is still a huge unknown and I can't see anyone just assuming he will beat the odds of most young QBs. It's possible, but would the Lions gamble on that after getting the rebuild to this point, salary cap or not?

"It's a lot easier to get worse at that position than get better"
 
Da Guru said:
Hypothetical Question?

A guy I work with is not a Goff fan, I mean he likes what he has done but does not want him extended unless it is a team friendly deal. Said after next season Hooker will have watched one season and backed up another and will be ready.

Then he states after next season Goff won`t be able to command 40-45 million on the open market. So he asks me where or what team would give him a 200 milliob doallr deal as a UFA?

I did not have time to think about the answer on the spot. Asking Lions fans if you think he would get a big $$$$$ UFA deal, if so what team would pony up?

Need some ammo for tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Carr got 4 yrs $150M & has been less productive and less successful.

3-time Pro Bowler with a Super Bowl appearance would def command 4 x $50M. The only question might be how much GTD.

Teams? IDK without thinking too hard Bucs, Falcons, Patriots, Raiders, Steelers.
 
Week 13 Officiating: Clay Martin's crew

Last Lions’ game Martin had was the Buccaneers earlier this season. His crew calls the second fewest penalties per game.


MCDC mentioned Malcolm Rodriguez will have a busy week. With Anzalone out he’ll have a bigger package on defense, but they’re going to continue to ramp up his involvement at FB.
 
Da Guru said:
Hypothetical Question?

A guy I work with is not a Goff fan, I mean he likes what he has done but does not want him extended unless it is a team friendly deal. Said after next season Hooker will have watched one season and backed up another and will be ready.

Then he states after next season Goff won`t be able to command 40-45 million on the open market. So he asks me where or what team would give him a 200 million dollar deal as a UFA?

I did not have time to think about the answer on the spot. Asking Lions fans if you think he would get a big $$$$$ UFA deal, if so what team would pony up?

Need some ammo for tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Minnesota, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh seem like decent landing spots for Goff if he left Detroit.
 
Jonah Jackson is back at practice today. Alex is the only NP.


Lions have signed WR Tom Kennedy to the Practice Squad and released WR Dylan Drummond.
 
TartanLion said:
Olave in protocol still but practised in Ltd fashion which means he could clear the hurdles in time for Sunday
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Apparently only one player has cleared the protocol in one week this year. We shall see. This is his third traumatic brain injury.


Sharp Football remaining strength of schedule analysis for every team

Detroit Lions Remaining Strength of Schedule:​

Based on team efficiency this season, the Detroit Lions have the #17 easiest strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2023 NFL season.

Current NFC Seed: 3rd

The Lions have played the #8 easiest schedule of opponents on the season and have struggled with every opponent on their schedule that ranks #20 or better.

They have narrow wins over the Chiefs and Chargers while dropping games to the Packers, Ravens, and Seahawks.

The schedule does get more difficult to close the season, but only if the Vikings don’t implode. Two of the Lions’ final three games are vs. Minnesota.

Right now, the Vikings are the NFL’s #15 best team. But that ranking is sure to plummet as more games with backup QBs as opposed to Kirk Cousins begin to fill out their stats.

In addition to playing the NFL’s #17 easiest schedule the rest of the way, four of their final six games are on the road.
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TIL Rodrigo played QB in h.s. - his stats were insane:
  • 2,449 rushing yards
  • 6,144 passing yards
  • 115 total touchdowns

And he played DB on defense
 
Perusing PFF's weekly premium content:
  • Jared Goff ranks as the 9th most valuable QB, sandwiched between Stafford and Cousins
    Wins above replacement: 1.93
    Two of Goff's three worst performances have come in the past three weeks, but he is still on track for his highest-graded season since 2018 — when he went to the Super Bowl with the Los Angeles Rams.
  • ARSB ranks as the 9th most WR.
    Wins above replacement: 0.31
    St. Brown has the sixth-best PFF receiving grade at the position through 12 weeks, and his 13 contested catches are more than anyone else in the league. His 2.62 yards per route run would be a career-high if the season ended today.
    Holdup. That's nice, but St is 3rd in targets /g (10.9), 2nd in receptions /g (8.2), 3rd in yards /g (99.3), 4th in first downs (49) - in 1 less game - 5th in Success rate (65.1%.), 5th in Y/RR. Also the 6th best run blocking grade for WRs (Josh Reynolds is 2nd.) My *** he's the 9th most valuable WR.
Thought this was interesting:

TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 13​

TeamChances with winChances with lossLeverage
Denver Broncos64%21%43%
Seattle Seahawks74%37%37%
Houston Texans54%18%36%
Indianapolis Colts58%25%33%
New Orleans Saints67%35%32%
Green Bay Packers63%37%26%

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS​

Home-field advantage​

Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.

AFC%NFC%
Kansas City Chiefs40%Philadelphia Eagles81%
Baltimore Ravens28%San Francisco 49ers14%
Jacksonville Jaguars15%Dallas Cowboys4%
Miami Dolphins13%Detroit Lions1%

Two wild cards for the same division​

With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.

As of now, the AFC North has the best chances to pull it off, even though the Cincinnati Bengals’ chances took a major hit with Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury:

AFCNFC
North53%23%
East0%3%
South10%0%
West1%5%

Pretty good chance both the Packers and the Vikings make the dance. GB has a dreamy schedule after hosting the Chiefs this week. MIN has a slightly lower probability of making the playoffs at just under 50%, due no doubt to the uncertainty at QB.
 
I heard they had special "ball security" drills yesterday at practice. Makes sense with 7 turnovers in the last 2 weeks. They had a 1-1 record despite it and if they don't turn the ball over again like that they should be able to escape this week with another road win. 9-3 would be a nice place to be entering the home stretch.
 
Leroy Hoard said:
I heard they had special "ball security" drills yesterday at practice. Makes sense with 7 turnovers in the last 2 weeks. They had a 1-1 record despite it and if they don't turn the ball over again like that they should be able to escape this week with another road win. 9-3 would be a nice place to be entering the home stretch.
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yes, and Goff was in there as well (normally it's a drill for RBs/WRs only)
 
When was the last time the coverage map for an early game had Detroit being shown across about 90 percent of the country?
 
Four players out for the Saints, including Rashid Shaheed.

Olave was a full participant and may clear concussion protocol.

Grupe kicked 5 FGs last week but dealing with a groin; practice squad K Austin Seibert may get called up Saturday.
 
Closer than i would have liked after leading 21-0.

Play of the game might have been Irvin's pile driver on Derek Carr. That one looked painful. Might be a fine on that one.

Winston missed some easy throws the last drive.

Goff played a good game. the Goff-LaPorta combo is rising up the charts fast.
 
San Fran vs. Philly? The good news, one has to lose. The bad news is one has to win. Probably a SF loss would be the bigger help as I don't think the #1 seed is realistic. The #2 seed is a realistic possibility.
 
jon_mx said:
San Fran vs. Philly? The good news, one has to lose. The bad news is one has to win. Probably a SF loss would be the bigger help as I don't think the #1 seed is realistic. The #2 seed is a realistic possibility.
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Yes, still gives the possibility of 2 home playoff games. And if Philly somehow got knocked off, even a 3rd. Pie in the sky right now, gotta win enough games first.
 
Da Guru said:
Closer than i would have liked after leading 21-0.

Play of the game might have been Irvin's pile driver on Derek Carr. That one looked painful. Might be a fine on that one.

Winston missed some easy throws the last drive.

Goff played a good game. the Goff-LaPorta combo is rising up the charts fast.
Click to expand...

What a beast of a game by LaPorta. I am not sure he is as good as Kelce and Kittle, but I am also not sure he isn't.
 
Leroy Hoard said:
jon_mx said:
San Fran vs. Philly? The good news, one has to lose. The bad news is one has to win. Probably a SF loss would be the bigger help as I don't think the #1 seed is realistic. The #2 seed is a realistic possibility.
Click to expand...
Yes, still gives the possibility of 2 home playoff games. And if Philly somehow got knocked off, even a 3rd. Pie in the sky right now, gotta win enough games first.
Click to expand...

We could go 2-3 in the last 5 games and still have the 3rd seed. We are playing to move up.
 
Dan Campbell says Frank Ragnow's injury was initially believed to be more serious, but now they think it might not be so bad.

Won't know definitively until further testing tomorrow.
 
Laporta is just such a good all round route runner. He’s not super athletic but some of the replays today were showing him shaking decent coverage with quick feet and a change of direction. Safe hands. Has become so trusted by Goff. It’s lessened the load off of Sun God to a degree as well.

Bobby will have more precise stats I’m sure but since the Baltimore debacle Jamo is 9 catches on 12 targets and some of those he took massive hits and held on to the ball. Two games in a row he’s been targeted and caught the ball on the opening drive and then …. Nothing until very late in the game or we are in trouble. I’d like to see him begin to get used more and extensively going forward. Nothing major but 5-6 targets as opposed to 2-3.


What an amazing start today, really felt like they were pissed off and angry about Thanksgiving. Run game started so well, but it was a little concerning to see how badly it got bottled up as the game went on and Ragnow was out.

Irwin looks like a useful addition.
Campbell I feel had a good game. He’s being asked to do a lot and it’s a steep curve for him but I do enjoy his run D

I just feel like we aren’t going to go deep with this defence, but one step at a time, we have other closer objectives that we need to cross off and remove as a statistic

Division Champs
A home playoff game
A playoff win

Let’s just keep trucking on. Dallas have been sensational of late, I’m really looking forward to that fixture in particular to see how we match up and perform
 
I agree @TartanLion - just enjoy them for what they are, they find ways to win. We cannot match DAL-PHI-SF in defensive intensity and the talent gap on that side of the ball is a pretty large expanse.

Offense is top 5 and pulling back, this is one of the Lions best seasons in their history. If they win their first division title in 30 years, that alone is remarkable achievement in Year 3 of a complete tear down and rebuild.

I don't expect them to compete for the Super Bowl. If we had made a trade deadline deal for a CB or Edge, we might have a puncher's chance. With their current defensive roster, they don't have enough dudes. But I know that Coach Campbell will have them prepared. We'll see what happens.

Regardless, been a pretty special season and we still have 6-7 weeks of football left.
 
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