Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Whoever they end up choosing, it seems like a 2nd rounder at the latest will be a DL. As someone said earlier in the thread, they just can't give up those 6 yard gashes up the gut.
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2025 Detroit Lions: 0-0 HOF Game on tape, as DC said..."We got work to do" (91 Viewers)
- Thread starter Da Guru
- Start date
6 yards...we were routinely giving up 30 yards to Carolina. That had to be the most embarrassing display of run defense ever. Chub Hubbard and D'onta Forman? Those guys aren't exactly Sanders or Dickerson. Give me Jalen Carter.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
yeah that's the thing - we really need to focus on the defense for this draft. so much chatter about whether we should trade up for a QB or take Bijan at 18 or find a way to bring in a big body WR or do we need a TE on day 2....
the offense was fine a year ago. getting a little infusion or future proofing the OL are great ideas, but we got gash in Chicago and Charlotte, we made Zappe and Zach look like good QBs. better down the stretch, sure....but step back a minute. we had a lot of things going our way the last 10 weeks in terms of turnover ratio.
one thing I noticed today is none of the guys we are consistently mocking to the Lions - Wilson, Gonzalez, Witherspoon, Johnston, Kancey, Benton, Campbell - they don't show up on the Top 30 Visit or interviews list. Doesn't too much, a year ago we never officially talked to Jameson while Burks, Olave and Wilson were all Top 30 visits. But they claim the interview process is a huge part of the process. But it may just be incomplete reporting, like we probably not every pro day or informal interview or zoom call gets reported. Interesting though.
11 days can't come soon enough.....
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The first 6 yards are on the front 7. The other 24 years were on the secondary. I think DeShonn was out that game but out secondary was pathetic. Bad angles, poor tackling. I think it's the game that officially ended the Okudah era in Detroit. Pathetic run defense from him and the rest of the DBs that week.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think sometimes these visits are used for players that teams aren't totally sure on and need more time to get to know the player or they still have lingering questions. If you met the guy at the combine and loved him, the reports from coaches, scouts, team mates all adds up then maybe another interview doesn't seem necessary?
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Plus it can throw off the scent of how interested they are. Not bringing them back could mean they saw enough either way.
Moonlight
Footballguy
That Carolina game was traumatic. Cost them a playoff spot and made them look inept.
Good that it happened in that it dramatically exposed their weakness and the need to upgrade their run defense in order to be taken seriously as a playoff SB contender.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Georgia DT Jalen Carter is visiting the Detroit Lions on Monday, and with the Falcons after he returns to Georgia. He will have visited every team drafting between 5 and 10.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Some TE Raw Athletic Scores (RAS) for your consideration. Holmes tends to like prospects with a high RAS and high college production.
- TE Zack Kuntz 10.00 - only 1 year of production at ODU (couldn't get on the field in 3 years at Penn State); built in a lab athlete but plays small, the film is not good.
- TE Tucker Kraft 9.68 - good blocker and productive player for the FCS National champs, one of my favorite picks at 81. Dude had a
minor knee injury his[ankle surgery] last year and missed4-56 games, knew he was a Top 5 TE prospect already based off previous years production. 90-99% of athletes in that situation shut it down and get ready for the Combine. He rehabbed to be back in time for the playoffs. Love this kid. - TE Sam LaPorta 9.02 - doesn't seem like a fit but they did interview him.
- TE Luke Schoonmaker 9.86 - solid but low ceiling IMO.
- TE Darnell Washington 9.88 - everybody's favorite. Does not run routes, most of his yardage came off leaks after play action, occasionally they threw to him in a contested catch mismatch situation. Really good in pass pro when they left him in; in run blocking he's a waist bender and doesn't stay engaged to finish off his blocks. Had a top ten run blocking grade per PFF but the film don't lie. He's a good scheme fit for how the Lions use TEs though, of all the teams in the NFL rn he makes the most sense in Detroit.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
@RapSheet
· 2h
The #Lions are re-signing versatile DB Saivion Smith, source said, an incredible comeback. Smith suffered a scary neck injury against the Patriots in his first start, then had offseason disc surgery. Now healthy again, he’s back in Detroit.
Lions have 15 DBs / 10 CBs signed. 70 players under contract rn, room for 20 draft picks and UDFAs for TC. Former 4-star recruit who played at LSU & Alabama, UDFA who has been bouncing around for like 4-5 years. Super long odds to even make the practice squad, but still a great story. At Foxboro last year he was temporarily paralyzed on the 2nd play and taken from the field in an ambulance.
· 2h
The #Lions are re-signing versatile DB Saivion Smith, source said, an incredible comeback. Smith suffered a scary neck injury against the Patriots in his first start, then had offseason disc surgery. Now healthy again, he’s back in Detroit.
Lions have 15 DBs / 10 CBs signed. 70 players under contract rn, room for 20 draft picks and UDFAs for TC. Former 4-star recruit who played at LSU & Alabama, UDFA who has been bouncing around for like 4-5 years. Super long odds to even make the practice squad, but still a great story. At Foxboro last year he was temporarily paralyzed on the 2nd play and taken from the field in an ambulance.
Moonlight
Footballguy
Was wondering about him the other day. Good to hear he will have another chance to play. Hopefully it isn’t just a move for him to retire as a Lion.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Only 2 out of 34 Cornerbacks drafted in the 1st/2nd round since 2019 have improved their NFL coverage grade over their College coverage grade.
Coverage grades of the 2023 Top CB Prospects
Is Cornerback a risky pick in the NFL Draft?
I rewrote the headline bc this is from a Vikings site. But the analyst makes a great case study here that's independent of the Vikings, terrific breakdown.
Coverage grades of the 2023 Top CB Prospects
Is Cornerback a risky pick in the NFL Draft?
I rewrote the headline bc this is from a Vikings site. But the analyst makes a great case study here that's independent of the Vikings, terrific breakdown.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Interesting. I wonder what grades look for other positions. I would imagine not many players, even the first round players are able to perform better in the NFL than they were in college.
Apple Juice
Footballguy
"And with the 6th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select ... Bijan Robinson, running back, Texas."
Obviously not likely but it wouldn't shock me if Holmes moved up from 18 to 11-15 range to snag Bijan the same way they did Jameson. Goff was at his best in LA when he had Gurley, he feasted on play-action. If Holmes see Bijan as a similar game-breaker he might be the final piece to make our offense unstoppable like the Rams were.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
After the Hurts signing are Lion fans ready to see Goff get 45ish million and 100 to 120 guaranteed?
If he plays anything like last year you have to assume this is what the going rate for a top 10ish QB to get.
If he plays anything like last year you have to assume this is what the going rate for a top 10ish QB to get.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
From ilov80s in the Philly thread:
Hurts cap numbers
2023: $6.15 million
2024: $13.56 million
2025: $21.77 million
2026: $31.77 million
Just move those forward to when the extension actually happens and it doesn't seem so bad. Almost every QB salary is going to escalate going forward.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Not sure. Thinking maybe more common with a category grade than overall player grade?
Never seen a study but PFF grades aren’t really the same as counting stats. The number of players grades in the 90s this year is pretty low, mostly guys like Karl Brooks dominating the MAC or Calijah killing whatever Pitt plays. Almost all the Power 5 guys going rounds 1-2 are in a pretty narrow band around 76-85 though plenty are low 70s or high 60s (some guys it’s more about physical traits + projection at the next level over say dominating fellow amateurs.
Not sure I’m doing a good job articulating here but I guess what I’m trying to say is it’s not like we’re talking about YPC or Passer Rating which is almost inevitably higher in college vs in the NFL. That’s not at all how PFF grades track.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Goff had a presser today, they came back for off-season workouts yesterday after 14 weeks off. They asked a Q about an extension and he gave a pretty general answer. Basically I was at or near the top of that for awhile and now it’s been awhile (5 years) since his last deal, if he does his job that will change at some point. No discussions as of rn and not looking for that to happen anytime soon.
Reality is his deal is still significant ($51M over the next 2 seasons), but APY is middle of the pack. He was a Top 5-7ish QB last year so he’s due for a bump if we go that way. If we draft his successor it’s a different conversation. I would think the decision on that will come in 9-10 months.
He’s beyond a Geno level middle mat myMy deal but I don’t think anyone thinks he’s worthy of a Patrick-Jalen deal, his window isn’t as wide as those guys and he’s not at their level.
Doubt they extend him this year. I’m ambivalent but I hope we handle with more forethought than say Kirk Cousins last two employers.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Goff and ARSB spoke today, said all the right things about last year’s finish means nothing, gotta go to work, got new coaches & new players, it’s basically a new team new year with high expectations et al. Yada yada.
Taylor Decker keeps it real, his presser was a little more interesting.
Taylor Decker keeps it real, his presser was a little more interesting.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
What do you mean by window as wide as Mahomes and Hurts? If he has a good season I can't see them not extending him. It sends a bad message to let a pro bowl caliber QB go into a season as a lame duck.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Age (though Mahomes is only a year younger, Hurts is 24), and status as undisputed Franchise Quarterback. Their window will last as long as they are. healthy. jared has always been viewed as the stopgap bridge QB, less so after 2022. But def still not elevated to the stature of a Josh Allen, Burrows, the two aforementioned QBs, et al.
He'll be signing his third contract, they just started their 2nd deal. Seems like a lot of obvious differences.
Goff will likely be extended in 2024 if he has another good season in 2023. If he regresses to the guy he was 2019-2021, I could see them looking at other options or doing something short term like applying the franchise tag while they figure it out. The other guys I brought up have almost carte blanche with fans and their teams are fully behind them. Goff has to fight to get any respect.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Levi needs three more games on IR for his benefits and pension to vest.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Film Room Breakdown - Tucker Kraft
nice little 4 minute clip with tons of all-22 film breaking down the good the bad and the ugly
nice little 4 minute clip with tons of all-22 film breaking down the good the bad and the ugly
- 3rd round candidate at 81 if he's still there - good all around TE with some decent run blocking skills
- former RB in h.s. - he's 6'5" 255, that must have Derrick Henryesque (3,130 rushing yards, 50 touchdowns his last 2 years); was also all-state in basketball
- his dad, who was a 3x NAIA All American, died in an aviation crash in 2013; the h.s. field in his hometown is named Doug Kraft Field
- team captain, kind of embodies the MCDC play through the whistle style, they interviewed him at the Combine and had him in for a Top 30 Visit
- same college (South Dakota State) as Dallas Goedert; Jackrabbits lost at Iowa 3-7 in the opener - Hawkeyes had two safeties lol - then ran the table to win their first FCS title
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Makes sense, just feel like the analysis of CB doesn’t hold much value unless we see it compared to similar numbers like pass rush grade, run blocking, etc.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Guess we think about comparisons differently. I'd want to compare cornerbacks to cornerbacks, Edge to Edge, et al.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
But wasn’t the idea of the article that CBs in the first round aren’t a good investment? If you aren’t taking a CB, you are taking another position. Maybe similar data would show the same or worse for other positions.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Cowerd thinks Jalen Carter will go 3 to Cards, Anderson 5 to Seahawks or vice versa.
That will leave a QB pn the board for Lions either Levis or Richardson so he sees the Raiders trading up for Lions pick or the Lions taking Miles Murphy.
I don`t think they will take Murphy at 6.
That will leave a QB pn the board for Lions either Levis or Richardson so he sees the Raiders trading up for Lions pick or the Lions taking Miles Murphy.
I don`t think they will take Murphy at 6.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
When I say we see things differently, I realize that might come off as a pejorative. It's not, I genuinely find it interesting that two people view the same data and come away with different conclusions. We all view things through the prism of our previous collective life experiences, so it's easy to see why that's the result (although I think far more often you and I are in sync and view things the same.) Nothing inherently wrong with that, life would be super boring if not for differences of opinion, just an observation.
I think it's really hard to predict NFL 1st round draft choices. At any position. Hit rates are pretty solid on elite offensive lineman (say a couple years ago in the Sewell v Slater debate - both turned out to be fantastic), but otherwise the guys who are handsomely compensated and have way more data get it wrong half the time. At every position. CB is no different than ED or WR in terms of misses, they just hurt more bc of the draft capital involved.
WRT this article and the data presented, my takeaway was no way do I want Gonzalez because he never had a good coverage grade either at Colorado or his one year at Oregon. Good athlete, without question, but I just don't think he's very good at PBUs - lacks the tenacity we often see in the best cornerbacks. I don't mean to sound like an archaic knuckle dragger but he's not tough enough and doesn't have the kind of swagger I want from an elite Corner.
Whereas Witherspoon and Forbes, based on recent data, probably have a higher chance of hitting than say Banks or another flavor. That's in a vacuum; I'm hoping he learns to be a little less grabby in the NFL, but I really like JPJ of the guys not going in the Top Ten. I still think Devon is best in class but from a needs/value perspective DL at #6 makes more sense for Detroit.
ASIDE on Forbes - the pick 6 stuff, while interesting, is fluky, he got lucky a few times. He has good closing speed and great ball skills. The weight is an outlier but I think this class is heralding a shift that will continue in the next few years. Players are getting smaller at WR, CB and Edge - those difference maker positions are seeing a broader acceptance for height/weight parameters, and ultimately we're going to see faster, quicker, twitched up players who are smaller than we're used to succeeding. IMO
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
He's never allowed a passer rating below 74.7 (85.3 and 90.0 at Colorado.) PFF gave me a sweet discount when I reached out directly to their sales rep....
Gave up 39/60 for 495, 3 TDs in his best season
PBUs were 4, 4, and 6 over 3 years
Coverage: 83.9, 72.4, 57.6
Run: 83.0, 71.2, 57.5
Missed Tackles: 17.9%, 12.9%, 4.9%
Witherspoon:
Gave up 22/62 for 205, 0 TDs in his best season (1 yard in 106 press man snaps)
PBUs were 14, 6, 0 and 2 over 4 years
Coverage: 92.5, 65.6, 64.2, 57.8
Run: 78.6, 74.7, 78.9, 89.7
Missed Tackles: 11.4%, 12.5%, 10.0%, 22.6%
My understanding is Witherspoon worked on his core strength a lot between Y3 and Y4 and that really shows up on the film. Super twitchy, unreal reaction times. It's like it all came together for him. He's also a film rat and very cerebral. Can't believe how good that entire Illinois secondary was in 2022, 3 guys will go in the Top 75 in the draft. They gave Michigan fits, Wolverines were lucky Moody bailed them out.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
2 CBs drafted in the top 10 the last 3 years, but not sure if that proves anything one way or another.
Since Gonzales is a junior and Witherspoon is a senior, it's interesting to compare those numbers by year:
Freshman year: Both struggled against the pass, and Witherspoon was significantly better against the run
- Coverage grade: Witherspoon 57.8, Gonzales 57.6
- Run grade: Witherspoon 89.7, Gonzales 57.5
Sophomore year: Both improved against the pass, but Gonzales was better. Run grades evened out a bit, with Witherspoon still being a bit better
- Coverage grade: Witherspoon 64.2, Gonzales 72.4
- Run grade: Witherspoon 78.9, Gonzales 71.2
Junior year: Gonzales was substantially better in both phases of the game
- Coverage grade: Witherspoon 65.6, Gonzales 83.9
- Run grade: Witherspoon 74.7, Gonzales 83.0
Obviously, Witherspoon had a great senior season, but it's safe to assume that if Gonzales had played his senior year, it would have been great, too.
I think the Lions are more likely to take Witherspoon because they'll love his intensity and love of the game, but they both should be great players, and I'd be thrilled to get either one.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Lions held a pre-draft visit with Florida OG O'Cyrus Torrence.
You guys down by AA? I heard he bought a place a few minutes away from his parents house.
You guys down by AA? I heard he bought a place a few minutes away from his parents house.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Rapoport:
TCU RB Kendre Miller is finishing up a third consecutive week of Top 30 visits today, as he's meeting with the Lions.
TCU RB Kendre Miller is finishing up a third consecutive week of Top 30 visits today, as he's meeting with the Lions.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Hutch goes to eat at Leos Coney Island 2-3 times a week. Has for years, his parents eat there all the time too.
I see Hutchs mom and dad 2-3 times a week at Planet Fitness. I just saw his parents today.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
They seem like good people. Though I did get a kick out of John Brown sitting in LL seats looking wistfully up at the private box and saying "so that's how it is when you're a top ten pcik" lol
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Not sure about Stingley it seems like Sauce, Horn and Surtain are all big hits
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah he’s still around- I see his family all the time around Kellogg Park and DTP. My buddy coaches soccer at DC and Hutch was always around with football. Said Hutch was a great kid, super humble and would help the soccer kids put away their equipment, chat with them. He grew up very well to do so I doubt money will change him either. Seems like he will be a rock solid pro and face of the franchise.
TartanLion
Footballguy
For anyone interested they are doing a cornerbacks episode on With The First Pick podcast. New podcast this off season which is GM/scouting/drafting orientated with Rick Spielman. Thought it might have some interest on here since CB almost definitively seems like something we are going to spend a day 1-2 pick on.
Ricks a pretty funny guy tbh, constantly giving his co-hosts some verbal barbs, and obviously was involved in drafting for quite a few years with the Vikings. He has some good insights/interesting stories
I’ll post their top five list momentarily
4. Banks - baller/plays with swag/wants to tackle not just tackle because he has to/great size speed looked good in drills/ good at locating ball/ similar to Xavien Howard
3. Porter Jnr - lab built/didn’t do short cone/shuttle would have loved to have seen. Tendency to drifts on inbreaking routes. Has press man ability, not concerned by 40 time. Little handsy but very physical. Can fix the handsy. Hasn’t played a lot in space, needs to get comfortable at some of the areas where he is weak and not be one dimensional, cited how Okudah was similar coming out. Dale Carter comps Isiah oliver Xavier Rhodes also mentioned.
2. Witherspoon - plays fast. Plays like a strong safety. Well put together, nice foundation. Most confident corner in draft. Got attitude some might not like but fine if he needs to be that way to get going. Best tackler CB in draft. Tone setter. Rick hearing might be 1st off board. No consensus between him and Gonzalez on that front. Antoine Winfield SNR like in tone setting. Very complete player. Coverage comparison Slay. Not overall just in coverage. Quick feet smooth transitions in coverage. Tackles like no one on league right now shins referenced Winfield SNR. Rick was asked if someone with that much chatter on the field is a turn off he says the reverse and says he prefers his CBs to be like that. If those types get beat they won’t allow it again because they are so competitive
1. Gonzalez - measurables gets him just an inch ahead of Witherspoon. Rare to find someone that tall and being that fast, also having great fluidity. Nice pad level, he’s big but also plays with high level at things that smaller corner usually do better. Not as physical or complete as Witherspoon but the measurables are just so good. Rick says he’s not the tackler that Witherspoon is but is still very good at it. Goes on a tangent about jerk Witherspoon would tackle his own grandmother if he could
Ricks a pretty funny guy tbh, constantly giving his co-hosts some verbal barbs, and obviously was involved in drafting for quite a few years with the Vikings. He has some good insights/interesting stories
I’ll post their top five list momentarily
4. Banks - baller/plays with swag/wants to tackle not just tackle because he has to/great size speed looked good in drills/ good at locating ball/ similar to Xavien Howard
3. Porter Jnr - lab built/didn’t do short cone/shuttle would have loved to have seen. Tendency to drifts on inbreaking routes. Has press man ability, not concerned by 40 time. Little handsy but very physical. Can fix the handsy. Hasn’t played a lot in space, needs to get comfortable at some of the areas where he is weak and not be one dimensional, cited how Okudah was similar coming out. Dale Carter comps Isiah oliver Xavier Rhodes also mentioned.
2. Witherspoon - plays fast. Plays like a strong safety. Well put together, nice foundation. Most confident corner in draft. Got attitude some might not like but fine if he needs to be that way to get going. Best tackler CB in draft. Tone setter. Rick hearing might be 1st off board. No consensus between him and Gonzalez on that front. Antoine Winfield SNR like in tone setting. Very complete player. Coverage comparison Slay. Not overall just in coverage. Quick feet smooth transitions in coverage. Tackles like no one on league right now shins referenced Winfield SNR. Rick was asked if someone with that much chatter on the field is a turn off he says the reverse and says he prefers his CBs to be like that. If those types get beat they won’t allow it again because they are so competitive
1. Gonzalez - measurables gets him just an inch ahead of Witherspoon. Rare to find someone that tall and being that fast, also having great fluidity. Nice pad level, he’s big but also plays with high level at things that smaller corner usually do better. Not as physical or complete as Witherspoon but the measurables are just so good. Rick says he’s not the tackler that Witherspoon is but is still very good at it. Goes on a tangent about jerk Witherspoon would tackle his own grandmother if he could
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
This is the it factor that tilts the scales in favor of Witherspoon for me. I want that swagger firing up the defense, the trash talking, the absolute abandon he hits receivers with if they throw a screen or quick comeback in front of him. He’s going to be a huge fan favorite wherever he lands. You’re gonna hate playing against him if it’s not your team.
Conversely, Okudah never had that inside. He lacked the requisite short term memory loss, instead of resolving “that’s never happening again” he doubted himself. Injuries might have taken that out of him.
************
Starting to think the optimal draft is probably around 6 picks. Package one of those 2nds (48 or 55) with 18 to move inside the Top 10. Package some of those four 5th/6th picks to move 81 into the high 60s, 55 into the the low 40s. Pick from say 6-11-39-66-159-194 (target trade partners with 6 or less picks.)
Quality over quantity. 4-6 of “your guys” trumps 9 random swings IMO.
"Levi is in a good place"
‘Feels better’ about Jalen Carter after visit
Campbell having a much better tone about Levi than in the past. Recently his comments did not indicate any hope, this sounds hopeful. You can take the Carter comment a couple different ways.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I was always a trade back guy, but there are only so many open spots as the roster gets better year to year. Extra late picks could end up on the cutting floor, so I'm all in for zoning in on difference makers.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Best news is Jamo is at voluntary workouts, so now maybe the lIons reddit / lions twitter communities will find something else to clutch their pearls over.
