Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Gould finished #12 in my league out of 32, moving indoors would only help.
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2025 Detroit Lions: 4-1 Lions win battle of the big cats. (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter Da Guru
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Alabama’s Brian Branch Only Prospect Who Doesn't Flee NFL Draft When Picks Don't Fall His Way
17 NFL Prospects were invited to spend night one of the NFL draft in the Green Room. Four were not selected, and on night two Will Levis, Joe Porter Jr, and Keion White elected to watch from their hotel rooms. Not Brian Branch, though; he wanted to finish what he had started.
Feel like this guy is the defensive equivalent of ARSB. Y'all don't believe in me? Bet. We'll see how that goes.
17 NFL Prospects were invited to spend night one of the NFL draft in the Green Room. Four were not selected, and on night two Will Levis, Joe Porter Jr, and Keion White elected to watch from their hotel rooms. Not Brian Branch, though; he wanted to finish what he had started.
Feel like this guy is the defensive equivalent of ARSB. Y'all don't believe in me? Bet. We'll see how that goes.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
New York Times calls the Lions draft second best behind Philly
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Next Gen Stats
@NextGenStats
· 14h
Which NFL team had the best all-around draft class by the NGS overall draft score? Of the six players the
@Lions drafted which received draft scores from the NGS Draft Model, only one had an overall score less than 80.
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Travdogg gave us the 2nd highest grade in his Shark Pool thread, which is being universally panned.
***************
Next Gen Stats
@NextGenStats
· 14h
Which NFL team had the best all-around draft class by the NGS overall draft score? Of the six players the
@Lions drafted which received draft scores from the NGS Draft Model, only one had an overall score less than 80.
***************
Travdogg gave us the 2nd highest grade in his Shark Pool thread, which is being universally panned.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Daniel Jeremiah had the first 5 picks in his top 50.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
And the final 3 picks all played in the east-west shrine game. There it is, I cracked the code.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I’m warming up to Colby Sorsdal
Brian Baldinger: he’s got a little bit of goon in him
With a couple nights to sleep on it, my opinion on Holmes selections is evolving. He went for guys who can contribute this year - the time is now, who knows how [long] this window stays open.
The first four picks will all start or compete for starters snaps day one. Martin can develop into a rotational DT, Solsdal could become a starter Y2. Even the 7th round WR was needs based: big and fast, his strengths are deep speed and contested catches.
The TB GM said his scouting department wrote ~3300 scouting reports on 1462 players. Holmes & Co have access to way more information than you or I, and based on his track record, have to believe in his ability to evaluate talent.
I also like that we quickly moved on from Okudah & Swift after signing/drafting multiple players to supplant them. We might never have seen a comp pick from either if they headed into FA after spending the season as a 2nd/3rd stringer. Got what we could and gave them both a fresh reboot at their chosen destination. Win-win for everyone.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The picks the Lions had going in made it almost impossible to have anything but a great draft.
LaPorta is a legit WR with the body of a tight end. He does not run like a tight end at all. Gibbs, Jamo and LaPorta are homerun hitters, then Monty and Amon-Ra will move the chains.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Jamaal & Shark leaving - do we get compensatory picks for them?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The Swift trade was interesting. Basically Philly gave us their pick knowing they would get it back with the comp pick anyway. Detroit didn't really gain anything. However, they have shown (and it's not the first time) that they will treat players with respect. I imagine Swift was happy going to Philly. It's a great team and his hometown. Ultimately, I think things like this are good for the culture and good for future team building. Just because
And that was the work of Brad Holmes. You can't be mad at Holmes for making luxury picks, when he put the team in a position where we could. Just enjoy the fruits.
What Detroit gained was a better RB room, where all the players will know their assignments, listen to the coaches, hit the proper holes, and will be on the field despite some bangs.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
They bucked convention and when you against consensus you’re going to be criticized. It was upside down methodology in terms of positional value. But they got their guys.
I looked at this opportunity (4th most cumulative draft capital) as a franchise defining draft. My mindset was we should emulate the Eagles, never stop investing in both lines and CB - the premium difference maker picks. They instead chose two of the least valuable positions and were 1-2 rounds early on 4 of their 6 picks in the first two days.
It’s still a franchise defining draft, but we’ll need a few years to know in which direction. Right now the overwhelming consensus of analytics & draftniks are we fittered away a golden opportunity. Casual / populists talking heads think we got it right; even if it was out of order we got good players.
It’s not a stretch to say it was an anti-intellectual process. Now the guys who think they’re the smartest ones in the room are mad bc Brad Holmes thinks he’s smarter than them lol.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
NFL.Com gave Lions draft C+ overall. Second lowest. Hope they are wrong!
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Probably not bc the formula is offset by the Sutton-CJGJ signings? I’ve looked into it before and it’s a bit opaque but that’s the gist of it.
The SOL were guys who made dumb mistakes on the field and frustrated the fans. What Brad/Don changed is the guys we bring in are high football-IQ guys, who live and breath every aspect of football and study tape. Instead of guys making that stupid play, we have guys that will do little things that win ball games. We probably will not even notice most of them.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Basically anyone who compares picks to consensus ADP/consensus grades is going to rate us low. Lions had a different board than consensus.
I know this much, 50% of first round picks never amount to much. That’s a lot of whiffs. Walter Football used to revisit draft rankings after 3 years and they’re always way different than the initial grades.
Two completely different criteria. The C+ is for the reviewer did not think we made optimal picks or addressed the wrong needs in the wrong rounds. The 2nd highest grade just looks at the entire class and does not care about how we got there. The only important grade is the final result.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
addition by subtraction- we hope. I just meant that the 4th we got was basically the compensatory pick we would have had if we just rode it out with him and let him walk.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
That is the only importance in every draft. If Gibby is always hurt like Swift was and Campbell is average at best the first rd picks would be considered a bust. If they are both valuable additions then first rd is a success.
This is what I'm coming around on, too. The expectation going in was that we were going to be drafting guys who may not play a lot right away, but would set up up for long-term success and salary cap relief as we started to not be able to pay everyone. The actual draft seemed to be more of sensing opportunity to win big in the next couple of years, and grabbing players who would help right away.
I mean, lions haven't won the division in 30 years. If this draft helps them do that and have a shot at a Super Bowl THIS year, I'm all for it.
Foosball God
Foos
True, but they will also have to pay him.
Moonlight
Footballguy
While not happy about Swift going to Philly, learning that it was Swifts hometown suggests that Lions are playing the long game.
Having a reputation for looking out for players and taking into account their interests will assist to some degree in acquiring players and overall team morale
What's that? SUPER BOWL??? You talking about Super Bowl?
Moonlight
Footballguy
Hey the Commissioner has the reputation of being a great hugger
Branch wanted his moment even if he didn’t go in first round. He was willing to wait by himself and walk on stage. In his mind he was a first round pick.
Nice that we sniped him before the Packers with the Packers own pick.
Moonlight
Footballguy
Suspect he will be on a lot of fantasy teams next year. Most of the fantasy community last year didn’t catch on how the Lions mistrusted Swift and were limiting his use.
I was watching fantasy TV shows mid year and the hosts were ranting about how trading for Swift would win you a fantasy championship. That didn’t go well
Swift now has a fresh start and will be in another high powered offense. Despite his limited use in Detroit he still had value and was at least a top 30 back. What round would you draft him this year?
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Not sure yet. In 2 leagues. One league we always draft the day before the first game so we know the depth charts and cuts. Other league we draft the weekend before. Want to see a little how they plan on using him. Still trying to figure out why he was not used much even when healthy.
They felt he left a lot of yards on the field, that he did not hot the holes like he should of. I think Duece rode him hard and he did not respond to it. Plus he rarely played if banged up.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
I would upgrade it to an A-. I think they went 7/8 across all picks and had one of the best drafts for any team.
Gibbs (12) - I love, love, love this pick. Not a reach and most of the analysts are wrong on this one. I would take him over Bijan every time. Home run hitter, great vision and pass catching abilities. Players like this are why Bill O'Brien somehow keeps getting OC jobs.
Campbell (18) - Yes this pick was a reach. But he seems to have all the traits that would translate to success in the NFL and is a max effort guy. My take is there was a lack of talent overall in this draft. So if they really liked him, why not pull the trigger early. The only first round player that went after him that I would have preferred instead was Nolan Smith.
Sam LaPorta (34) - He's not perfect but will be a real weapon in the passing game. Whereas the Lions got some grief for going RB and LB in the first round, at least they waited for the right time to go for one of the top TE. And he's a move TE that can actually catch, unlike Ebron.
Branch (45) - First round talent at pick 45. Huge steal. Best safety in the draft. Loved that he stayed until his name was called.
Hooker (68) - He was QB3 for me after Young and Stroud, and I would rather have Hooker in round 3. Go watch the game against Alabama and tell me he can't be as good as Young on any given Sunday. The injury dropped him down and the Lions reaped the benefits.
Martin (96) - This was the questionable pick for me and the biggest reach for the Lions. He's a big, strong space eating tackle but looks slow with limited production in college. How many other teams had a 3rd round grade on this guy?
Sorsdal (152) - The opposite of Martin. Potential to be the biggest sleeper pick in the entire draft. Very productive 5 year starter in college, albeit at a smaller school. Checks all the boxes. This is the type of hidden gem where the scouts earn their paycheck. Love this pick.
Green (219) - Lions needed a WR and got a fast, prototypical sized WR with their final pick. 19 yds per catch and 15TDs in 24 starts. Seems like a guy that should have been drafted much earlier.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Kevin Cole did some long term study on draft grades. Two interesting (and worrisome) trend he observed:
- players that “fell” and teams got a “steal” on average did not outperform their draft slot. Meaning the teams passing on him were probably right and the analysts were wrong- perhaps there was info teams had that analysts did (medical, personality)
- players that were “reaches” underperformed their draft slot meaning teams that think they are smarter than the draft experts aren’t.
- players that “fell” and teams got a “steal” on average did not outperform their draft slot. Meaning the teams passing on him were probably right and the analysts were wrong- perhaps there was info teams had that analysts did (medical, personality)
- players that were “reaches” underperformed their draft slot meaning teams that think they are smarter than the draft experts aren’t.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Lions draft will ultimately be judged on:
1. Is Gibbs instantly a special playmaker in the receiving game?
2. How Campbell play compared to Kancey, Nolan Smith, Murphy, Breese, Banks?
3. LaPorta vs Mayer
The one get out of jail free card is Hooker. If he turns into a quality starting NFL QB then the draft is a win no matter what else happens.
1. Is Gibbs instantly a special playmaker in the receiving game?
2. How Campbell play compared to Kancey, Nolan Smith, Murphy, Breese, Banks?
3. LaPorta vs Mayer
The one get out of jail free card is Hooker. If he turns into a quality starting NFL QB then the draft is a win no matter what else happens.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I can't wait to see the first woman wearing a Hooker jersey.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Off-season dates
Lions have not yet announced when they will hold rookie camp to my knowledge. Teams have the option to pick between a three-day stretch during the weekends of May 5-8 and May 12-15. Last year they chose the latter date.
Dates for training camp, too, are not out yet, but those practices typically begin in the final week of July.
The veterans have been in phase 1 of offseason workouts, which mainly consists of meetings, strength and conditioning, and physical rehab. Phase 2 begins today, per the CBA teams are permitted to do walkthroughs and positional drills, permitted that they are not offense vs. defense and there is no contact.
Phase 3 is the OTAs, where teams are allowed to do 7-on-7s, 9-on-7s, and even 11-on-11s, but no physical contact between players is permitted still. Mandatory Minicamp is also included in Phase 3.
First day of offseason workouts: Monday, April 17
OTA workouts: May 23-25, May 31-June 2, June 12-15
Mandatory Minicamp: June 6-8
Lions have not yet announced when they will hold rookie camp to my knowledge. Teams have the option to pick between a three-day stretch during the weekends of May 5-8 and May 12-15. Last year they chose the latter date.
Dates for training camp, too, are not out yet, but those practices typically begin in the final week of July.
The veterans have been in phase 1 of offseason workouts, which mainly consists of meetings, strength and conditioning, and physical rehab. Phase 2 begins today, per the CBA teams are permitted to do walkthroughs and positional drills, permitted that they are not offense vs. defense and there is no contact.
Phase 3 is the OTAs, where teams are allowed to do 7-on-7s, 9-on-7s, and even 11-on-11s, but no physical contact between players is permitted still. Mandatory Minicamp is also included in Phase 3.
First day of offseason workouts: Monday, April 17
OTA workouts: May 23-25, May 31-June 2, June 12-15
Mandatory Minicamp: June 6-8
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I am excited about all the players we got and can't wait to see these guys in camp and preseason.
Outside of Chark, we did not lose a single player that we downgraded on. And once Jamo becomes a full-time player, even the WR core will be much better.
I love what we did at RB. I love what we did to our secondary. I love our new LB. I even love LaPorta at TE. And we got a legitimate talent at backup QB. What an awesome offseason.
And to boot, I think one our two of our later picks will turn into real gems. We even got some interesting guys as UDFA.
And eliminating Okuda and Swift really got rid of the final disappointment pieces from the quintricia era.
And I really don't care about positional value and where we drafted guys. If these guys play and contribute to wins, they were great picks, whether it is at 12 or 155.
The bottom line is the 2022 Lions were good and fun to watch, especially late in the season. They were not only winning, they were dominating some teams, in ways you don't see Lions teams do. The 2023 Lions team will be a far better team. Not the Eagles or Chiefs good....but still a team good enough to have a legit chance to be in the NFC finals, and will not be embarrassed if they do get there. IMO, will be the best Lions team in the Super Bowl era.
Outside of Chark, we did not lose a single player that we downgraded on. And once Jamo becomes a full-time player, even the WR core will be much better.
I love what we did at RB. I love what we did to our secondary. I love our new LB. I even love LaPorta at TE. And we got a legitimate talent at backup QB. What an awesome offseason.
And to boot, I think one our two of our later picks will turn into real gems. We even got some interesting guys as UDFA.
And eliminating Okuda and Swift really got rid of the final disappointment pieces from the quintricia era.
And I really don't care about positional value and where we drafted guys. If these guys play and contribute to wins, they were great picks, whether it is at 12 or 155.
The bottom line is the 2022 Lions were good and fun to watch, especially late in the season. They were not only winning, they were dominating some teams, in ways you don't see Lions teams do. The 2023 Lions team will be a far better team. Not the Eagles or Chiefs good....but still a team good enough to have a legit chance to be in the NFC finals, and will not be embarrassed if they do get there. IMO, will be the best Lions team in the Super Bowl era.
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Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
As always time will tell.
If a team gets 4 starters out of any given draft it is a successful draft. If 5-6 make the team even better. Gibby, Branch, Campbell and LaPorta will all be on the field.
Branch was considered a first round talent, Campbell a second round talent. Lions got both just in different order.
Also Hooker was going to be taken in middle first if healthy. Hooker can be a solid backup if Goff stays, possible starter down the road, or at least traded for a higher pick that he was taken at.
If a team gets 4 starters out of any given draft it is a successful draft. If 5-6 make the team even better. Gibby, Branch, Campbell and LaPorta will all be on the field.
Branch was considered a first round talent, Campbell a second round talent. Lions got both just in different order.
Also Hooker was going to be taken in middle first if healthy. Hooker can be a solid backup if Goff stays, possible starter down the road, or at least traded for a higher pick that he was taken at.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
A reach is often a reach, but a steal is rarely a steal.
With a reach, by definition we lack feedback from other teams. It's a single data point, that one organization valued a player, but we don't have any feedback from other teams.
With a steal we by definition have the feedback of several teams - sometimes all 32 - have decided a player doesn't warrant their consensus ranking. There are of course exceptions, but the DK Metcalf's of the world are exceedingly rare. This follows closely the wisdom of crowds theory.
BTW - Cole's blog post is based on cites some premium content over at PFF. I would repost here but honestly it's a pretty narrow study with a handful of data points to illustrate either outcome, but it's far from being a comprehensive study.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I would simplify the criteria and say a home playoff game and a playoff win are ultimately the gauge. This was very much a win now draft that focused on immediate contributors.
OF COURSE they are good players, of course the roster is better today than it was a week ago. My goodness, what were the expectations? It would have truly been an astonishing feat to walk out of a draft in which you had the 4th most draft capital and not come away a better team with better players.
But just remember, they chose with great intentionality to upgrade the 4 least valuable positional groups.
That’s the average salary of top 10 players by position.
Closely mirrors the WAR (wins above replacement) rankings for each positional group.
If you think the rest of your roster is complete, nothing wrong with that.
But ultimately the judgement has to be how it impacts the overall team performance.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah the roster looks great when everyone is healthy. I really wanted to add more pass rushing talent to the DL.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It’s all about opportunity cost. Like Bobby said, of course they added lots of good players. Look at the picks they had. Saying they got good players isn’t enough. Look at it like a fantasy draft. If in a normal league, I took Joe Burrow and TJ Hockenson with my first two picks and said “these are safe reliable guys” that’s a terrible start. Not because JB and Hock are bad but because I gave up Ekeler, Chase, Amon Ra, Waddle, etc.
TartanLion
Footballguy
Broderick Martin was Rick Spielmans ‘ hidden gem’ of our draft. Cited does play with too a high pad, but is completely unmovable and is a giant of a man. Athletic enough to separate, is a 2 down nose, very good as a run stuffer which will massively help Glenn and work well in tandem with McNeil
His pick of our draft was La Porta. Said he ‘could see La Porta as the best TE in this class when all is said and done’. Talked to a lot of people who said he was a poor mans Kittle. Physical, fast, underrated catcher.
Co-host Emory Hunt had Gibbs as the best RB in this class
His pick of our draft was La Porta. Said he ‘could see La Porta as the best TE in this class when all is said and done’. Talked to a lot of people who said he was a poor mans Kittle. Physical, fast, underrated catcher.
Co-host Emory Hunt had Gibbs as the best RB in this class
At least we didn't pick a kicker in the 3rd . . .
The Lions are using metrics that are not measured by analytics. Chris Speilman should not have e been a great player. ARSB should not have been a great player. Houston should not have been a great player. And let's go to the Mich alum, Tom Brady should not have been a great player. Brad and Dan are drafting football players and they are grading by heart and how they look on film. Special players with that heart and pure love of the game rise up above their physical stats and contribute well beyond their positional values. A lot of these metrics are great for using as a measuring stick and offering guidance. But you also have to adjust to the situation and look deeper than just cold analytics. I think the players we drafted will be awesome and add to the culture that the Lions are building and I really i don't give a rats butt where they were drafted.
Besides, having the greatest QB in the NFL does not mean squat when you are giving up 350 yards to a couple of two-bit RBs. All positions matter. And right now, the Lions are finally good at all positions.
Martin would be huge if he turns out to be our gem of the draft. There is still outside hope that Levi will be healthy. DT is the only position we need some good fortune.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Seems inevitable given that 2023 will be a redshirt year for Hooker. We will likely have no idea of his potential by year end because 1) he'll be rehabbing his torn ACL for several more months, and 2) the Tennessee offense did not in any way resemble any scheme in the NFL. Over the course of his entire career at Tennessee, he completed 15 passes to a receiver who was not his primary target. In 79 pressures in 2022 in which he left the pock, he completed 3 passes for 12 yards. Scheme wise, they frequently ran four verticals (encouragingly, he had outstanding deep ball passing stats.) His receivers always ran choice routes - there is nothing in Hyatt and Tillman's tape that would suggest they were running NFL route trees.
It's going to be a long process getting him acclimated.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Barring any UFA tenders, starting tomorrow teams can sign UFAs without them counting in the compensatory pick formula.
Some notable players include:
Teams that directly have 2024 compensatory picks on the line:
(obviously unofficial and I don't understand the opaque formula well enough to speak to the accuracy)
Some notable players include:
- Marcus Peters
- Jadeveon Clowney
- Adrian Amos
- Yannick Ngakoue
- Kareem Hunt
- Matt Ioannidis
- Poona Ford
- Teddy Bridgewater
Teams that directly have 2024 compensatory picks on the line:
- Eagles (3/5/5/)
- 49ers (3/5/6/6)
- Jaguars (3/6)
- Bills (3)
- Saints (4/4/6)
- Ravens (4)
- Cardinals (4)
- Packers (5/6/6)
- Chiefs (5/5)
- Bengals (5/6)
- Rams (6/6/7/7)
- Cowboys (6/6)
- Jets (7/7/7)
(obviously unofficial and I don't understand the opaque formula well enough to speak to the accuracy)
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
2020 Detroit Lions - top 20 defensive snaps
DT John Penisini (Da'Shawn Hand)
DT Nick Williams (Danny Shelton)
DE Trey Flowers
DE Romeo Okwara
LB Jamie Collins
LB Christian Jones
LB Reggie Ragland
LB Jahiani Tavai (Jarrad Davis)
LCB Desmond Trufant (Jeff Okudah)
RCB Amani Oruwariye Darryl Roberts
NCB Justin Coleman (Javron Kearse)
FS Tracy Walker
SS Duron Harmon (Will Harris)
DT John Penisini (Da'Shawn Hand)
DT Nick Williams (Danny Shelton)
DE Trey Flowers
DE Romeo Okwara
LB Jamie Collins
LB Christian Jones
LB Reggie Ragland
LB Jahiani Tavai (Jarrad Davis)
LCB Desmond Trufant (Jeff Okudah)
RCB Amani Oruwariye Darryl Roberts
NCB Justin Coleman (Javron Kearse)
FS Tracy Walker
SS Duron Harmon (Will Harris)
