2025 Rookie Thoughts (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

I don't play dynasty anymore, but I still have a redraft team and it's a tradition to do a deep dive on each rookie class, so here goes.

Full disclosure: I watch very little football these days. These are just my rapid fire thoughts based on highlights and game cuts.

I'll start out with the RBs. WRs and TEs will follow later. If I still have energy after that, I might watch some QB tape.

Note that these are not rankings. I'm simply going through the players based on draft order and giving my thoughts. Green means I think the player was good value at his selection while red means I think he was a questionable pick. If there's no color then it's a neutral/moderate position.

RUNNING BACKS

RB Ashton Jeanty, Raiders - The pick has similar vibes to Bowers, Bijan, and MHJ in terms of being a solid prospect who makes sense at a high draft slot, even if the "wow" factor doesn't quite stack up with the create-a-player dream. I don't see Tomlinson, Bush, Peterson, or Saquon talent here. While Jeanty was picked 6th overall, the freakish qualities aren't on par with the absolute best RB prospects I've seen. Don't take that as a scorching criticism. I don't see any major flaws to his game. He is big enough to handle a large workload. He has plus speed and balance. When watching his clips, you notice that he is rarely hit hard because he has a knack for subtle cuts and movements to minimize contact. He has some shiftiness at every level. The comparison I'm going with is DeAngelo Williams. Williams had a good career that might have been great if he hadn't shared the Carolina backfield with Jonathan Stewart for so many years of his prime. I view Jeanty as a safe pick to become a productive starter.

RB Omarion Hampton, Chargers - He has a compact frame and good speed for the first 10-15 yards. He's certainly not a plodder. There's some burst to his game. He shows potential as a pass catcher. That being said, his tape is not on par with what I would expect from a 1st round RB. While he's not slow, he seems to gather in and out of cuts, losing speed in the process. He doesn't have a great second gear. He can be run down from behind. His functional power is not special. If you just showed me his clips without telling me the draft slot, I might have guessed 3rd round. I'm going to draw a parallel with Donald Brown. I did not love Brown's clips as a prospect out of UConn, but the Colts took him high and immediately put him to work. He had a passable, though not very good career. The main positives I see with Hampton are circumstantial. Harbaugh is a good coach with a strong history of running the ball. The Chargers lost JK Dobbins and spent a very high pick on Hampton. What does all of that mean? They are likely to slot him into the lineup early and feed him opportunities. These positives cannot be ignored, though I can't say I'm a big fan of his ability in a vacuum. I'll consider him a slight fade. If I invested in him in dynasty, I'd be keeping a close eye on him and possibly looking for a sell high exit window.

RB Quinshon Judkins, Browns - Let's put aside the off-field stuff for now and just focus on the player. Judkins runs low with quick feet and good power. He is an aggressive runner. More of a bruiser than a home run hitter, lacking true elusiveness in the second level. He can evade in the backfield, but he is somewhat tight at full gallop. Sufficient sprint speed. There may be starter upside here, but even if we put aside the "stuff" that surrounds him, I think I like Henderson and Harvey more from a pure talent standpoint. I'd look at Judkins as a high-risk/medium-reward dice throw. Unlike a Mixon or Tyreek situation, the talent isn't exceptional enough for me to consider overlooking the red flags.

RB TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots - As stated, I like his talent more than Judkins even if we ignore the character concerns. Although he's a little bit more of a long strider than most of the RBs in this class, it doesn't come at the expense of fluidity and agility. Henderson is in the vein of backs like Forte and Alexander where the long stride does not preclude being able to make sharp cuts. No one will ever confuse him for Barry Sanders, but he has some evasiveness in the second level and can make cuts at speed. While he doesn't look small on tape, his listed weight is lower than you'd expect. That's a minor orange flag. I'd consider him more of a lock if he were 210+, but still I cautiously anticipate him having a solid career. I'd take him over Judkins or Hampton.

RB RJ Harvey, Broncos - I can't remember the last time I liked a Denver RB draft pick. I didn't like Booker, Freeman, or Javonte. I've disagreed with most of this org's moves at the position in recent years, but we finally see eye to eye here. Harvey looks like a nice value out of the 2nd round, sharing many traits with Ashton Jeanty while costing a fraction of the draft capital. He might be the best interior runner in the draft. He has instant start-stop quickness. While you might like him to be a little bit taller and heavier, his frame is probably fine for full-time duty. Runs with adequate power. His speed and athleticism check out. Compact with shiftiness, speed, and power is a combination that tends to work well at RB in any era. I skew optimistic on Harvey, who shares traits with past success stories like Gore and Rice. Probably a top 2-3 RB in this draft.

RB Kaleb Johnson, Steelers - Based on his highlights, he's an edge hunter inclined to break everything to the outside and try to run around the defense. That always scares me when projecting to the NFL because the defenders are too fast to be beaten consistently in that fashion. However, when I took a closer look at the invidiual game cuts, I did see some slightly more promising reps where Johnson ran through trash and showed some footwork. Linear sprinter RBs with suspect elusiveness might be my least favorite species of RB. That graveyard is littered with names like Jerious Norwood and Knile Davis. If you want positive comps for Johnson, you can look at people like Latavius and DeMarco Murray. I'll cautiously compare Johnson to Latavius. He isn't a burner like some of those other names, but he also has better power and interior running potential than someone like Norwood or Knile. I'm not generally a believer in Johnson, but this is an open RB spot and he may have enough talent to be functional for a few seasons. There's enough here to prevent him from being a total fade. Would I buy any shares? Probably not.




That's all the day 1-2 RBs. I'm going to make a separate post for the 4th rounders later today. Then I'll dive into the 5th-7th round candidates on a later date.

To summarize this first cluster, I would feel good about buying shares of Jeanty, Henderson, and Harvey. The latter two look like the best values given Jeanty's expected cost. When you buy at the top of the market, there is little room for profit and lots of downside. Jeanty does look like a very safe bet though.

The rest would be unlikely to find their way onto my rosters based on their anticipated ADP, though there's nobody who looks totally hopeless.

 

[socrates]

Nice work!

 

[EBF]

4th Round RBs:

RB Bhayshul Tuten, Jaguars - His game is about SPEED. He can get vertical in a hurry and will not be caught from behind. A player like De'Von Achane indicates how this type of talent can thrive in the NFL in the right circumstances. While Tuten isn't especially undersized when we look at the height/weight, his functional run strength and power suggest he's destined for a committee role more than featured duty. A player like Phillip Lindsay represents the other side of the coin. Speed and explosiveness have utility in the NFL, but the league can be very punishing for backs who lack physicality. There's a chance that Tuten will prove to be a valuable piece of the puzzle for a team, but I think there's also risk that his body won't hold up to a significant workload.

RB Cam Skattebo, Giants - Versatile with good play strength. PPR value. He runs hard. I wouldn't say he's elusive on the second level, but his initial quickness and acceleration behind the line of scrimmage are good. I think there's a role for him in a pro backfield, though I'm not sure if it's going to be full-time duty or a more niche usage. A big obvious weakness is the lack of a second gear. He is not fast and plateaus quickly. It's tricky to think of a comparison, but I lean towards a Dion Lewis type of career where he establishes himself as a productive piece of the puzzle. A starter outcome is not impossible. You'd like to see more speed and true make-you-miss quickness. Because of his stature he may be miscast as a juker when he's actually more of a bulldozer. That contradicts the Lewis comparison slightly.

RB Trevor Etienne, Panthers - Is it too lazy to compare him to Sony Michel because they went to the same school and wore the same number? There really is a similarity in terms of build and play style. Etienne is a loose runner with plus mobility. Size and power are concerns. Etienne is routinely defeated by the first tackler and struggles to run through contact. While he's a crisp back with good athleticism, he isn't Chris Johnson or LeSean McCoy in terms of having special athletic traits. The lack of differentiating qualities points to a likely backup and commitee future.

RB Woody Marks, Texans - Among this cluster of RBs, he flashes the best footwork and most natural open field cutting ability. He is very shifty with a quick first step. That skill usually translates well to the next level. On the other hand, his speed is just okay and he's not a huge back. Tyjae Spears and Michael Carter represent cautionary tales of athletic, shifty RBs who lacked bulk and power. I still feel good about recommending Marks as a buy candidate at ADP. There's enough Bucky Irving potential to justify a moderate outlay with the understanding that the hit rate on 4th rounders is never going to be amazing.

RB Jarquez Hunter, Rams - Fluid athlete. Everything he does looks smooth and economical, though he's not able to leverage that for any "wow" reps. Not notably big or fast, lacking superlative traits. I ancitipate a Chase Edmonds type of career where he is functional in spot duty while struggling to earn a major role.

RB Dylan Sampson, Browns - A thrift store Josh Jacobs who presents a similar run style without the same degree of sizzle or oomph. Has active feet and some agility. Power is a question mark. I did not see great evidence of a second gear or the ability to elude in the second level. Still, there are some Tyrone Tracy parallels here if you're hunting an instant return on your investment. The Cleveland backfield has some uncertainty and while I'm not sure Sampson is long-term starter material, I do think he has promising stopgap potential.


This cluster feels somewhat undifferentiated to me, and I've taken more of a noncommittal approach, with only one green name and no reds. I'll roll with Marks as the best option from this group. I'd likely gamble on Skattebo or Tuten next because they have the most unique qualities. Sampson is a worthwhile dice throw. Etienne and Hunter skew a little more towards a fade, especially Etienne. They aren't bad, but they give off more of a concrete backup vibe.

 

[wgoldsph]

@EBF absolutely love your takes. Sucks you've been less involved because I always knew to look at for your posts before each season.

 

[joey]

@EBF Your write ups are pro-level. Great read. Thanks.

Oh, and

 

[EBF]

By my count, this is my 4th year of switching over from a conventional ranking format to this type of informal, unsorted system.

The change was partially driven by laziness and declining interest, yet I also think this type of system can be more functional. While it's natural to feel like you need to rank every player available, it may be more functional to identify players you think are far above or below their consensus value. In a startup draft, you have a finite number of picks. You don't need to rank every player. You just need to find one player per pick who represents value.

Put another way, all that really matters in a draft is the picks you make. Whether or not other players blow up will have minimal impact on your team, provided that the players you actually choose end up doing well. For example, if you had the first pick in 2014 and took Mike Evans, what happens to Beckham and Watkins (other candidates for that pick) becomes mostly irrelevant if your pick hits.

Instead of trying to perfectly sort every player in a rookie draft or startup draft, it may be better to trim our list to 2-3 high confidence candidates per round. If we successfully hit most of these picks then it doesn't much matter what happens to all the other players.

With that out of the way, I'll link to the the last three years of rookie thoughts.

2022 - Big hits this year were Brian Robinson, Khalil Shakir, and Trey McBride.
2023 - I had some false positives on late round guys, but also had Chase Brown, JSN, Zay Flowers, and Tank Dell as buys.
2024 - Jury still out on most of these guys, but I'm pleased with Tyrone Tracy and Ladd McConkey so far. Still too early to say much.

Feel pretty good about the returns so far, while acknowledging that I would've missed on some talents like Nacua, Achane, and Bucky.

Based on last year, MarShawn Lloyd and Ja'Lynn Polk are two players I would be sniffing around in a dynasty startup. Maybe I was wrong on those guys and they will both flop, but there is a buy window right now to take a chance at a moderate cost.

 

[msudaisy26]

Great info. I feel like this is one of the best rb classes in a long time? What do you think?

 

[EBF]

Great info. I feel like this is one of the best rb classes in a long time? What do you think?

That seems reasonable. The best I can remember is 2008 when McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, Johnson, Forte, Rice, and Charles all came out of the same class. That's a lot of 1000 yard seasons between those names. Unless you took Felix Jones (which I did in one or two leagues), you got some type of return on your investment.

2017 has be in the conversation. Even with Fournette being a relative flop, we got Cook, Kamara, Mixon, McCaffrey, and Conner. That's strong.

It was funny to see the "RBs don't matter" narrative flip last season. In New York, Saquon was living proof that RBs don't matter. The Giants were criticized for burning a top 2 pick on him. It didn't reverse their fortunes or turn them into a good team. Yet when you put him on the Eagles, suddenly he won them a Super Bowl.

You could argue that Saquon made Jeanty a lot of money. It was a reminder that a great RB actually moves the W-L needle. I think Jeanty would've been a first round pick in nearly any year though. While I don't quite understand the Hampton pick for LA, I see a lot of potential in names like Henderson and Harvey. If Jeanty has a good career and one or two of those guys is a Gore or Rice, suddenly this is going to start looking like a good RB group. That's without any contributions from the day 3 picks.

I've not seen the 5th-7th round backs yet, but the 4th round guys all appear to have some degree of viability.

It looks like an above average RB group.

 

[DonFue]

Great stuff.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Great info. I feel like this is one of the best rb classes in a long time? What do you think?

That seems reasonable. The best I can remember is 2008 when McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, Johnson, Forte, Rice, and Charles all came out of the same class. That's a lot of 1000 yard seasons between those names. Unless you took Felix Jones (which I did in one or two leagues), you got some type of return on your investment.

2017 has be in the conversation. Even with Fournette being a relative flop, we got Cook, Kamara, Mixon, McCaffrey, and Conner. That's strong.

It was funny to see the "RBs don't matter" narrative flip last season. In New York, Saquon was living proof that RBs don't matter. The Giants were criticized for burning a top 2 pick on him. It didn't reverse their fortunes or turn them into a good team. Yet when you put him on the Eagles, suddenly he won them a Super Bowl.

You could argue that Saquon made Jeanty a lot of money. It was a reminder that a great RB actually moves the W-L needle. I think Jeanty would've been a first round pick in nearly any year though. While I don't quite understand the Hampton pick for LA, I see a lot of potential in names like Henderson and Harvey. If Jeanty has a good career and one or two of those guys is a Gore or Rice, suddenly this is going to start looking like a good RB group. That's without any contributions from the day 3 picks.

I've not seen the 5th-7th round backs yet, but the 4th round guys all appear to have some degree of viability.

It looks like an above average RB group.

Agreed. Top RBs can only do so much without talent around them. Barry Sanders was unicorn as far as that goes. But they can make a big difference when there is talent around them.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Thanks @EBF

 

[TripItUp]

Something to remember is that Harvey was running against lower level competition and Judkins generally was not.

 

[EBF]

Something to remember is that Harvey was running against lower level competition and Judkins generally was not.

You try as much as possible when evaluating players not to consider things like that. It is just about trying to isolate the player's qualities.

Easier said than done, but it shouldn't matter too much whether you are playing FAU or Alabama. Your speed, power, and quickness are what they are.

Randy Moss at Marshall isn't any less Randy Moss than he would be at Florida State (not to imply that Harvey is a Randy Moss).

 

[rockaction]

Something to remember is that Harvey was running against lower level competition and Judkins generally was not.

You try as much as possible when evaluating players not to consider things like that. It is just about trying to isolate the player's qualities.

Easier said than done, but it shouldn't matter too much whether you are playing FAU or Alabama. Your speed, power, and quickness are what they are.

Randy Moss at Marshall isn't any less Randy Moss than he would be at Florida State (not to imply that Harvey is a Randy Moss).

You don’t find it slightly different for RBs due to the defenses’ speed and size? It’s a little harder for me (a total amateur) to judge guys when the holes could fit trucks and the first level guys are smaller while the second-level guys are slower. And the LBs are slower and smaller also.

I mean, I get what you’re saying (very much) but guys don’t play isolated in a vacuum, and all the variables, if you will, are dependent.

eta* and I gather you’re trying to isolate on the guy and how he moves in an absolute sense; it’s just that he has to react to the guys on the field so vision becomes tougher to assess, IMO (not that I can assess it anyway, frankly—I look at first step and explosion before contact and strength and balance after contact).

 

[Lansdowne]

Something to remember is that Harvey was running against lower level competition and Judkins generally was not.

You try as much as possible when evaluating players not to consider things like that. It is just about trying to isolate the player's qualities.

Easier said than done, but it shouldn't matter too much whether you are playing FAU or Alabama. Your speed, power, and quickness are what they are.

Randy Moss at Marshall isn't any less Randy Moss than he would be at Florida State (not to imply that Harvey is a Randy Moss).

Yup. It’s all about traits and how they translate to the NFL level. You have guys like Isaiah Spiller who looked like a stud in three seasons in the SEC and was a devy darling but then tested poorly at the Combine, fell to the 4th round, and is already out of the league after three seasons.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Something to remember is that Harvey was running against lower level competition and Judkins generally was not.

Judkins was also playing with 20 future NFLers and Harvey was not.

 

[pinkstapler]

Something to remember is that Harvey was running against lower level competition and Judkins generally was not.

You try as much as possible when evaluating players not to consider things like that. It is just about trying to isolate the player's qualities.

Easier said than done, but it shouldn't matter too much whether you are playing FAU or Alabama. Your speed, power, and quickness are what they are.

Randy Moss at Marshall isn't any less Randy Moss than he would be at Florida State (not to imply that Harvey is a Randy Moss).

You don’t find it slightly different for RBs due to the defenses’ speed and size? It’s a little harder for me (a total amateur) to judge guys when the holes could fit trucks and the first level guys are smaller while the second-level guys are slower. And the LBs are slower and smaller also.

I mean, I get what you’re saying (very much) but guys don’t play isolated in a vacuum, and all the variables, if you will, are dependent.

eta* and I gather you’re trying to isolate on the guy and how he moves in an absolute sense; it’s just that he has to react to the guys on the field so vision becomes tougher to assess, IMO (not that I can assess it anyway, frankly—I look at first step and explosion before contact and strength and balance after contact).

I'm no expert; but to me it's kind of a mix of both. I 100% take into consideration the defenses they play. but only in the context of each individual play; not by some broad, sweeping judgements. It can make it harder to find tape, or mean you have to watch a lot more on some guys; but ultimately I'm looking for what these RBs do, and what skills the exhibit, in a variety of situations. So in general they might play weaker defenses and have more open lanes, but there is certainly tape of them on individual plays getting a handoff where there is no lane. Or where they are getting hit behind the line. Or where the safety crashing down is actually sized like an SEC guy instead of a Sunbelt guy haha.

Season/career totals and metrics are still important, but just a piece of the puzzle. So for a guy like Jeanty, you just note "he played in the mountain west". Doesn't mean I ding his numbers for it, but it does mean I want to be sure to watch more of his condensed games against his toughest opponents and look for neutral/negative set up plays to see if the skills he shows under ideal conditions hold up and come through under those neutral/negative conditions as well. To no ones surprise, he still excelled there haha.

Probably an even better example would be Kaleb Johnson. So much of his tape showed him excelling at that wide zone, and a lot of it being blocked masterfully by his line. It went from being a positive to a potential concern for me "is this a one trick pony". So I switched gears and went out of my way to find plays of him running up the middle, and plays where his line was not doing him many favors. There weren't a ton, but this is what led me to acknowledging he still has plenty of wiggle. And also when I realized he doesn't lack burst/processing speed as much so as he's very comfortable being patient behind the line letting blockers get in place and letting holes/cut back lanes develop. (This could still be a negative if he's TOO patient, and the trait wanders into a lack of decisiveness/urgency, esp. at the next level when seconds become tenths of seconds). But more than a handful of plays where he had next to no delay crashing through a barely open hole and meeting the LBs head on, or slipping arm tackles behind the line and cutting back against the block scheme to find a new lane. Wound up making me drop those scheme dependent concerns as well as any I was hearing/reading on his "lack of burst".

 

[socrates]

You try as much as possible when evaluating players not to consider things like that. It is just about trying to isolate the player's qualities.

Easier said than done, but it shouldn't matter too much whether you are playing FAU or Alabama. Your speed, power, and quickness are what they are.

Randy Moss at Marshall isn't any less Randy Moss than he would be at Florida State (not to imply that Harvey is a Randy Moss).

I'm no expert; but to me it's kind of a mix of both. I 100% take into consideration the defenses they play. but only in the context of each individual play; not by some broad, sweeping judgements. It can make it harder to find tape, or mean you have to watch a lot more on some guys; but ultimately I'm looking for what these RBs do, and what skills the exhibit, in a variety of situations. So in general they might play weaker defenses and have more open lanes, but there is certainly tape of them on individual plays getting a handoff where there is no lane. Or where they are getting hit behind the line. Or where the safety crashing down is actually sized like an SEC guy instead of a Sunbelt guy haha.

Season/career totals and metrics are still important, but just a piece of the puzzle. So for a guy like Jeanty, you just note "he played in the mountain west". Doesn't mean I ding his numbers for it, but it does mean I want to be sure to watch more of his condensed games against his toughest opponents and look for neutral/negative set up plays to see if the skills he shows under ideal conditions hold up and come through under those neutral/negative conditions as well. To no ones surprise, he still excelled there haha.

Probably an even better example would be Kaleb Johnson. So much of his tape showed him excelling at that wide zone, and a lot of it being blocked masterfully by his line. It went from being a positive to a potential concern for me "is this a one trick pony". So I switched gears and went out of my way to find plays of him running up the middle, and plays where his line was not doing him many favors. There weren't a ton, but this is what led me to acknowledging he still has plenty of wiggle. And also when I realized he doesn't lack burst/processing speed as much so as he's very comfortable being patient behind the line letting blockers get in place and letting holes/cut back lanes develop. (This could still be a negative if he's TOO patient, and the trait wanders into a lack of decisiveness/urgency, esp. at the next level when seconds become tenths of seconds). But more than a handful of plays where he had next to no delay crashing through a barely open hole and meeting the LBs head on, or slipping arm tackles behind the line and cutting back against the block scheme to find a new lane. Wound up making me drop those scheme dependent concerns as well as any I was hearing/reading on his "lack of burst".

Excellent points by both of you. I prefer to watch game film without any knowledge of the final stats. I find it is difficult not to allow the stat line to influence me. Also, I prefer watching All-22 film (who doesn't?), but that is often not an option. If I am watching a network broadcast, I often mute the sound to avoid the interjection of broadcaster emotion. They get paid to hype the game up.

Of course tackling/QB pressure/pass coverage/speed/strength, etc. are very different in the SEC than the Mid-American Conference or Mountain West, but that will typically all be evident on tape. If you are largely ignoring the stat line in favor of actual player attributes, the competition level becomes less of an issue.

 

[EBF]

You don’t find it slightly different for RBs due to the defenses’ speed and size? It’s a little harder for me (a total amateur) to judge guys when the holes could fit trucks and the first level guys are smaller while the second-level guys are slower. And the LBs are slower and smaller also.

I mean, I get what you’re saying (very much) but guys don’t play isolated in a vacuum, and all the variables, if you will, are dependent.

Like I said, I just try to evaluate the player's qualities. That is independent of the competition level.

To make an NBA analogy, Shaedon Sharpe is going to be 6'5" with a 40+ inch vertical regardless of whether he's up against a high school team or NBA players. Likewise, you can put an average high school player on the court in the NBA and he isn't going to magically grow to 6'5" with a 40+ inch vertical. The qualities that a player possesses are independent of the context, so I think the challenge (especially with RB/WR/TE) is just to determine what the guy can do.

If I watch a RB, for example, I am not looking much at the blocking or the holes. I'm looking at the RB's acceleration, cuts, balance, and so forth. By and large, you cannot "fake" these things, so it doesn't matter much if he's playing for Akron or Alabama. To bring it back to the basketball analogy, you cannot fake a 360 dunk. You can't manufacture capabilities with context. Good blocking isn't going to let a random D1 RB make the cuts that Tomlinson and Peterson could make. It isn't going to grant him 4.40 speed.

If we are able to isolate the player's capabilities then the level of competition is not a huge variable.

 

[smbkrypt24]

I do think that looking at traits helps to minimize playing competition as much as it can, however, there is a difference in mentality for playing competition. You would run differently if your team is just dominating a lower level team like Akron as your example.

 

[oldmanhawkins]

Just wanted to say thanks, EBF, for your contributions and that I’m glad I stuck it out here through the dark days of the tush push thread to get to these quality posts on the other side

 

[socrates]

Just wanted to say thanks, EBF, for your contributions and that I’m glad I stuck it out here through the dark days of the tush push thread to get to these quality posts on the other side

Are you saying that the tush push thread is dead? Say it isn't so!

 

[metoo]

@EBF I look forward to this thread every season. Thanks for posting links to previous seasons. I like reviewing them to see if I may be forgetting about a player in dynasty. Have a great season.

 

[Jimmy Tiger]

My favorite SP thread each pre-season. Always look forward to your takes @EBF Thanks and keep up the solid prognostications.

 

[elguapo07]

Anxiously awaiting WR analysis

 

[EBF]

Let's get the late round RBs out of the way so we can move on to the WRs.

When it comes to this part of the draft, we have to maintain realistic expectations. The hit rate on these guys is minimal. Most of them will wash out of the league without leaving a lasting impression. When you go mining for nuggets in open sewage, you have to be realistic about what you're most likely to find. At the same time, you hope these longshots can flash something on tape to make you think they might beat the odds. It's always worth investigating.

5th Round RBs:

RB Jordan James, 49ers - Has some toughness and mobility. Serviceable in most categories. However, I do not see special traits. There is nothing distinct in terms of power, speed, or quickness. My hunch is that we're looking at a career backup with faint hopes of becoming long-term relevant.

RB Jaydon Blue, Cowboys - Has some straight-line burst and reasonably quick feet. Mobility probably isn't special enough to overcome his lack of bulk and power. Under 200 pounds and doesn't run with a lot of physicality. That may limit his every-down value. Likely just a situational option.

RB DJ Giddens, Colts - One-cut-and-go type of back with a decent size/speed combo on paper. I don't think it translated to special output on tape. He's not convincing when running through contact. While his first step is fine, he seems to lose momentum on his sharper cuts and has a somewhat jerky running style. I wouldn't entirely rule out the idea of him having spurts of utility. Overall I think his most likely trajectory is to be a role player though.

6th Round RBs:

RB Ollie Gordon, Dolphins - He has a more differentiated skill set than most of the backs in this cluster. Power runner with potential to become the "thunder" part of a backfield tandem. The pairing with Achane is intuitive based on their run styles, as there's a lot of contrast in what they do. While Achane is the squatty sprinter type, Gordon is a big, upright runner with some physicality and downhil ability. Not shifty, but has just enough quickness. He's a less talented version of Brian Robinson. A low ceiling sleeper candidate for deeper formats. Recognize that his upside is probably capped at a LeGarrette Blount type of career.

RB Devin Neal, Saints - Has a chance to be useful. Compact frame with some foot quickness and medium speed. Reasonable power and mobility. There are no glaring flaws to his game. On the other hand, his burst is just okay, not special. I'm not sure if there's enough here to lock down a starting role, but I'd classify him as more promising than most RBs picked in this territory. I'm tempted to give him a very weak green rating. Let's call him a high-end backup with potential fringe starter potential. Worth a flyer.

RB Kalel Mullings, Titans - Loose hips and active feet. He's more of a grinder than a sprinter, but he's not a plodder. He runs on a swivel with instant cutting ability. He maximizes his physical talent, but the raw height/weight/speed isn't spectacular. He's an upright back with limited explosiveness. A level one specialist without much big play flair. He can grind out yards. Don't expect a lot of home runs. I like the player, but the ceiling may be modest. Let's say he's a B- version of Najee Harris. Good value here for the Titans. Just don't get carried away when you imagine his upside.

RB Tahj Brooks, Bengals - Compact frame with above average bulk and power. Loose runner with quick feet and good balance. He is in the tradition of other Bengals RBs like Samaje Perine and Rudi Johnson in terms of being a bowing ball with light feet and fluid east-west cutting. The sticking point is a lack of explosiveness. He's more of a one gear power runner than a home run threat. We can point to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and David Montgomery as other similar players. Given that the comparisons Brooks evokes have had various degrees of viability in the NFL, I'll assign him a moderate buy rating at this cheap entry cost.

7th Round RBs:

RB Damien Martinez, Seahawks - Lacks defining qualities. Power-speed tweener with no clear way to win. Competitive and physical, but somewhat tight runner. I think we can safely assume he's on a backup trajectory.

RB Brashard Smith, Chiefs - Fun athlete. Quick feet. Dangeorus in space. Converted WR, and it shows. Tweener frame, lacking conventional bulk or power for the RB position. Versatility may get him on the field, but lack of meat and potatoes ability may restrict him to niche usage. While I like the landing spot with Mahomes and Reid, I'm not sue the upside justifies major excitement. From a style standpoint, Smith is a less talented version of a player like Jerick McKinnon. When even the best versions of your archetype aren't viable in FF, it's a sign that maybe the ceiling isn't there.

RB Kyle Monangai, Bears - Reasonable talent for the 7th round. He has quick feet and runs with some power. I wouldn't say he's shifty, but he can find a cut here and there. More north-south in nature than a juker though. The problem is that he doesn't have exceptional acceleration or speed. A little slow out of the blocks with modest top speed. Probably just a backup at the NFL level. Interior runner lacking sizzle.

RB LeQuint Allent, Jaguars - It almost feels like bullying to stick a red designation on a 7th round pick. This is lottery ticket territory. Even with that being the case, I'm skeptical of Allen. He's a tall, linear runner in the tradition of past draft disappointments like Glen Coffee and CJ Prosise. Upright and lean with a hurdler body type. Limited power and quickness in small windows. He offers good athleticism, burst, and speed. The issue for RBs with this body type is that they struggle to translate their athleticism into functionality. Kenyan Drake was a more talented version of this and his career was middling. I'll echo what I said for Brashard Smith: When even the best versions of your archetype don't work in the NFL, it's hard to get too excited.

RB Phil Mafah, Cowboys - Strong lower body. Runs with some thump. Very limited quickness and redirection. He'll get what's blocked, and not much more. Struggles to create extra yards on his own. Dangerously close to plodder territory. I'd probably look elsewhere.

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders - North-south explosive. Highlight reel shows some flashy make-you-miss moments, though I'd actually characterize him as more of a north-south sprinter than someone with true natural east-west elusiveness. Runs somewhat tight. Power is a question mark. If he's just a straight-line sprinter with suspect interior running ability and below average size/power then we can probably avoid him without too much risk of regret. The skill set may be too flawed to demand the volume necessary for FF relevance.



To conclude this block, I'm cautiously optimistic about Tahj Brooks. He would be my top prospect from this cluster. The lack of burst may restrict his ceiling, but he fits a mold that often translate well to the NFL level. I'm somewhat intrigued by Mullings and Gordon as a low ceiling thunder options. I see enough potential in Devin Neal to take some end of bench flyers. I'd probably be pretty comfortable ignoring the rest of these guys unless they started to build a buzz or showed something at the NFL level.

 

[Harjiran]

Love this thread - nice work EBF!

 

[Pip's Invitation]

4th Round RBs:

RB Bhayshul Tuten, Jaguars - His game is about SPEED. He can get vertical in a hurry and will not be caught from behind. A player like De'Von Achane indicates how this type of talent can thrive in the NFL in the right circumstances. While Tuten isn't especially undersized when we look at the height/weight, his functional run strength and power suggest he's destined for a committee role more than featured duty. A player like Phillip Lindsay represents the other side of the coin. Speed and explosiveness have utility in the NFL, but the league can be very punishing for backs who lack physicality. There's a chance that Tuten will prove to be a valuable piece of the puzzle for a team, but I think there's also risk that his body won't hold up to a significant workload.

RB Cam Skattebo, Giants - Versatile with good play strength. PPR value. He runs hard. I wouldn't say he's elusive on the second level, but his initial quickness and acceleration behind the line of scrimmage are good. I think there's a role for him in a pro backfield, though I'm not sure if it's going to be full-time duty or a more niche usage. A big obvious weakness is the lack of a second gear. He is not fast and plateaus quickly. It's tricky to think of a comparison, but I lean towards a Dion Lewis type of career where he establishes himself as a productive piece of the puzzle. A starter outcome is not impossible. You'd like to see more speed and true make-you-miss quickness. Because of his stature he may be miscast as a juker when he's actually more of a bulldozer. That contradicts the Lewis comparison slightly.

RB Trevor Etienne, Panthers - Is it too lazy to compare him to Sony Michel because they went to the same school and wore the same number? There really is a similarity in terms of build and play style. Etienne is a loose runner with plus mobility. Size and power are concerns. Etienne is routinely defeated by the first tackler and struggles to run through contact. While he's a crisp back with good athleticism, he isn't Chris Johnson or LeSean McCoy in terms of having special athletic traits. The lack of differentiating qualities points to a likely backup and commitee future.

RB Woody Marks, Texans - Among this cluster of RBs, he flashes the best footwork and most natural open field cutting ability. He is very shifty with a quick first step. That skill usually translates well to the next level. On the other hand, his speed is just okay and he's not a huge back. Tyjae Spears and Michael Carter represent cautionary tales of athletic, shifty RBs who lacked bulk and power. I still feel good about recommending Marks as a buy candidate at ADP. There's enough Bucky Irving potential to justify a moderate outlay with the understanding that the hit rate on 4th rounders is never going to be amazing.

RB Jarquez Hunter, Rams - Fluid athlete. Everything he does looks smooth and economical, though he's not able to leverage that for any "wow" reps. Not notably big or fast, lacking superlative traits. I ancitipate a Chase Edmonds type of career where he is functional in spot duty while struggling to earn a major role.

RB Dylan Sampson, Browns - A thrift store Josh Jacobs who presents a similar run style without the same degree of sizzle or oomph. Has active feet and some agility. Power is a question mark. I did not see great evidence of a second gear or the ability to elude in the second level. Still, there are some Tyrone Tracy parallels here if you're hunting an instant return on your investment. The Cleveland backfield has some uncertainty and while I'm not sure Sampson is long-term starter material, I do think he has promising stopgap potential.


This cluster feels somewhat undifferentiated to me, and I've taken more of a noncommittal approach, with only one green name and no reds. I'll roll with Marks as the best option from this group. I'd likely gamble on Skattebo or Tuten next because they have the most unique qualities. Sampson is a worthwhile dice throw. Etienne and Hunter skew a little more towards a fade, especially Etienne. They aren't bad, but they give off more of a concrete backup vibe.

And now Marks benefits from a starter who is injured.

 

[rockaction]

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders - North-south explosive. Highlight reel shows some flashy make-you-miss moments, though I'd actually characterize him as more of a north-south sprinter than someone with true natural east-west elusiveness. Runs somewhat tight. Power is a question mark. If he's just a straight-line sprinter with suspect interior running ability and below average size/power then we can probably avoid him without too much risk of regret. The skill set may be too flawed to demand the volume necessary for FF relevance.

Wrong! He’s my meal ticket don’cha know? (McLaughlin Group there. IYKYK. DC political show thing.)

Good stuff. EBF. Thanks for the write-ups, and especially the perspective and reminder of how few of these guys will hit.

 

[EBF]

It's time to work our way through the WRs. I'm done with the first round group.

WIDE RECEIVERS

1st Round WRs:

WR Travis Hunter, Jaguars - Unique player. In 20+ years of following the draft, I can't think of anyone exactly like him. He is a speed-based WR who wins with verticality and explosiveness. Lean frame. Noticeably thin with little power. That combination reminds of people like Ted Ginn and Troy Williamson, but it is an insult to Hunter to compare him to these WRs because he has some differentiating traits that they didn't possess. Far from being a pure sprinter, he's a clean route runner with quick feet and real separation skills. He is something of a vacuum in contested situations, showing good extension to snare most throws in his zip code. While recognizing that there's nobody quite like him, I will tentatively cite former Rams star Isaac Bruce as the closest parallel. Like Bruce, Hunter is a lean and explosive WR who will win with speed, crisp routes, and good pass-catching skills. Hunter may be better in contested situations. When we think about the hype he has coming into the league as the #2 pick and Heisman winner, we can also recognize parallels with Reggie Bush. Both players have dynamic hybrid skill sets with size and power limitations. That Hunter figures to play some DB in the NFL complicates his situation because none of that defensive value is relevant for FF (outside of IDP), yet it likely contributed to his high draft slot. As with Reggie Bush and his KR/PR skills, you have to worry that you are paying for traits that don't matter for FF. Add it all up and I think there is some merit to the idea of selling into the hype with Hunter, even though I think he is a talented player who will have success in the NFL. Bush was so hyped coming into the NFL that his trade value peaked before he ever played a down. I don't dislike Hunter, but if you can get someone to pay superstar prices from day one then you may want to cash out with the understanding that he's being priced at his ceiling.

WR Teitaroa McMillan, Panthers - Big, possession-based WR. Modest vertical separator. His speed won't scare anyone in the NFL, though he has a sneaky second gear when he gets into his stride. He's a clean route runner who can thrive in the intermediate game. Drake London was a more talented version of this archetype. I think McMillan is more comparable to Michael Pittman Jr, which suggests a reasonably good outlook. He can be an effective chain mover. There's an argument that he was overdrafted by a round here. I don't really see the special qualities that you would expect from a top 10 overall selection, but I still like his chances to be a productive NFL player. Bryce Young's safety valve.

WR Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers - As with the McMillan pick, you can view this one through the lens of team needs. The Panthers needed a reliable short yardage option to synergize with Bryce Young, so they paid a premium for McMillan. The Bucs need a mobile Chris Godwin insurance policy to pair with Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield, so they spent a premium pick on someone in that mold. Egbuka is more of a "weapon" type of WR than your conventional outside target, showing versatility to be lined up in different roles (slot, outside, backfield). While it's a logical team fit for the Bucs, I don't know that I really see enough talent in Egbuka individually to justify huge dynasty excitement. He doesn't have any one special trait as a pure WR. His speed is fine, but not scary. He is on the squattier and shorter side, yet not an electric RAC threat. I thought JSN was more dynamic as a slot weapon coming out of Ohio State. As an outside WR, Egbuka is a less talented version of Victor Cruz. I lean towards him being a long-term miss in FF. My hunch is that you can pass on him without regretting it too much down the line.

WR Matthew Golden, Packers - Lacks height and length, but is strong and can win with mobility. Above average speed, quickness, and route running. Though he's fast, he doesn't play to his elite 40 time. I'd describe him as Tyreek without the freaky third gear. Can play the slot, yet also shows outside potential. Overall, he's a more speed-based version of Zay Flowers with less suddenness. I'd probably take a chance on him ahead of Egbuka, but I'm lukewarm on the long-term outlook.


That's it for the day one guys. Somewhat underwhelming group, in all honesty.

I've done all the preliminary work on the 2nd-3rd round WRs, so those thoughts are coming sooner rather than later. There may be a gem or two in that bunch.

 

[EBF]

2nd Round WRs:

WR Jayden Higgins, Texans - Very comparable to McMillan, who went almost a full round higher. That may make Higgins a relative bargain in comparison. Tall frame. Not a burner, but efficient and fluid in his routes for a bigger target. Good suddenness out of his breaks. Long frame with separation skills and good hands is a profile that translates well to the NFL level. I anticipate a career somewhere in the range between Michael Pittman Jr. and Drake London. High end possession WR.

WR Luther Burden III, Bears - Extreme RAC threat. A weapon out of the slot and over the middle. Ability to win consistently on the edges is a question mark. He's a bit of a style tweener, lacking the power of a Boldin or AJ Brown while lacking the finesse to win as a route technician. Evokes comparisons with other gimmicky tweeners like Josh Boyce, KaDarius Toney, and Jalen Reagor; all of whom failed to find a productive role in the NFL. More "athlete" than WR. I lean towards a fade here and would recommend other options in this ADP range.

WR Tre Harris, Chargers - His best trait is probably his speed. He's not shifty, but when he gets into his stride he can beat angles and outrun people downfield. May have some latent potential as a deep threat. Mediocre size and RAC. Passable route runner in the short and intermediate game, though I don't think he'll be exceptional in possession situations. Lacks physicality. I warmed up to him more as I watched more tape, but I still think the ceiling is modest. Let's go with Brandon LaFell as the comparison. Useful complementary target who can threaten on vertical routes with his speed. Does not necessarily look like he has legitimate number 1 target potential. In the short term, expect him to provide competition for Quentin Johnson while McConkey remains the target hog.

WR Jack Bech, Raiders - Gets off the line well with a gliding stride. Plays with physicality and toughness, but lacks the size to overpower. Medium speed. He's not slow, but won't scare NFL defenses as a deep threat. Tight athlete moving east-west. The Raiders may be envisioning a Ladd McConkey type of outcome here, but Bech doesn't have the same degree of precision or suddenness as an athlete. His ceiling is probably more in Amendola territory. Gritty possession target with limited upside. Potentially a useful part of the equation for the Raiders. Questionable value for FF.

3rd Round WRs:

WR Kyle Williams, Patriots - Elite play speed. Eats up cushion and has defenders on their heels. Finds an extra gear downfield and can pull away from people. Shows some suddenness as a route runner. Has some foot quickness in addition to sprinter speed. However, his possession impact may be limited by lack of size/physicality and unreliable hands. Over-aged five year collegiate. There are some warts here, but the speed and mobility pop off the screen. Would he have been a first round pick with an Alabama jersey on his back like Ridley, Jamison, or Ruggs? That may be a stretch, but I like his chances to outplay his draft slot and would be targeting him in drafts.

WR Isaac TeSlaa, Lions - Seam threat. Play strength and straight-line speed stand out. Above average frame. Less impressive moving east-west or getting out of sharp breaks. Tight, linear athlete. Separation and route versatility are question marks. I see some parallels with Eric Decker, but I don't know if TeSlaa will be that good in possession and contested situations. He's something of a one-trick pony. I'm tempted to dig deep into the vault and compare him to former Saints WR Robert Meachem, another big/fast WR who couldn't do much except motor in a straight line. That may be harsh on TeSlaa, but the clips I've been able to find do not showcase much else.

WR Pat Bryant, Broncos - Fluid mover. Smooth athlete, but there's not much burst behind it. Very modest tools. Lacks standout physical traits. Average size and speed. The most favorable comparisons for him are players like Brandon Lloyd, Marvin Jones, Doug Baldwin, and Tyler Boyd. That's about the ceiling for this species of WR prospect, and Bryant is probably below their talent level. He's not terrible, but it's hard to see the scenario where he becomes a reliable weekly FF starter. May be headed for an Andre Roberts type of career.

WR Jaylin Noel, Texans - Slot prospect. Fast and elusive. Good initial quickness and play strength. He's not tall, but physicality won't be an issue. Built sturdy. Return skills add to real life value, but are mostly irrelevant in FF. We have to consider what his route to FF relevance would look like. To believe that he's going to be relevant in FF, we have to believe that he can offer outside value ala Tyreek and/or command enough slot targets ala Welker to survive on that. It seems like a small target to aim at. When deployed outside, Noel seemed less effective. His best value is likely to be working the middle of the field as a chain mover out of the slot, which isn't an exciting proposition for FF.

WR Savion Williams, Packers - Great athlete. Elusive and explosive in space. Compact strides with great change of direction. Once again, there are concerns about role projections. He's a converted QB who plays like a RB/WR tweener. On a scale from Denard Robinson to Anquan Boldin, he may be Randall Cobb or Cordarrelle Patterson. There's something interesting to work with here, but it's a big leap to go from gimmicky gadget weapon to productive every-down WR. I may take a cheap flyer in deep formats if he falls far enough. Compelling athletic traits give him a better ceiling than most ADP peers.

WR Tai Felton, Vikings - Lean downfield WR with above average speed. Limited route and possession skills. Not a notable separator underneath and doesn't offer great RAC ability. Straight-line athlete who tests off the charts. It somewhat translates to the field. A one-trick pony can be valuable if the trick is useful enough. Probably more Bernard Berrian than Mike Wallace, but there's a useful ceiling if you squint hard enough. Developmental deep threat with WR2 potential for Minnesota. Game likely has too many warts to see him emerge as the main target somewhere.


That's it for the day 1-2 WRs. If I were still playing dynasty, I would expect to walk away from my rookie drafts with high ownership of Jayden Higgins and Kyle Williams. I might feel compelled to grab a Savion Williams lottery ticket or two just in case he pops in a big way. I must be getting too nice in my old age because I didn't slap an outright red designation on any of these WRs, but you can infer from the comments who is skewed in that direction.

I haven't started the day 3 prospects yet, so that will happen when it happens.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Been on the RJ Harvey train since they drafted him, think it might take a few weeks until he locks down the position and I still think they will use other backs to keep them all fresh
I think Harvey will be a surprise Top 12 RB by the end of the year

 

[J Giles Band]

To make an NBA analogy, Shaedon Sharpe is going to be 6'5" with a 40+ inch vertical regardless of whether he's up against a high school team or NBA players. Likewise, you can put an average high school player on the court in the NBA and he isn't going to magically grow to 6'5" with a 40+ inch vertical. The qualities that a player possesses are independent of the context, so I think the challenge (especially with RB/WR/TE) is just to determine what the guy can do.

Always appreciate your rookie write ups EBF. Thorough and nice of you to share.

As someone working on the basketball side, I caution against pointing to the measurables as evidence a guy can play though. Sharpe is actually a prime example. He may be 6'5" with a 40-inch or so, vertical (40+ vertical measurements are often inflated, btw)... but he still has A LOT to learn in terms of how to play. He has put up stats at times on bad Blazers' teams... but he and several of his highly drafted teammates (Scoot, etc.) have done little that contributes to winning. He is still young, but the jury is still very much out on him.

Of course stats are what matters in fantasy sports... but just pointing out the measurables are just a part of it. Sharpe's physical tools alone, are good enough to get by on in high school and even on the college level (most of the time). But just about every player in the NBA has size and is athletic. So in addition to the physical tools, the basketball IQ, having a clue how to play, feel for the game, etc. DOES matter. Or as you later put it... 'determining what the guy can do.' Which, while it may be influenced by... can be quite independent of his measurables.

 

[elguapo07]

RB Brashard Smith, Chiefs - Fun athlete. Quick feet. Dangeorus in space. Converted WR, and it shows. Tweener frame, lacking conventional bulk or power for the RB position. Versatility may get him on the field, but lack of meat and potatoes ability may restrict him to niche usage. While I like the landing spot with Mahomes and Reid, I'm not sue the upside justifies major excitement. From a style standpoint, Smith is a less talented version of a player like Jerick McKinnon. When even the best versions of your archetype aren't viable in FF, it's a sign that maybe the ceiling isn't there.

I think this kid might get a shot at a Jerick McKinnon type role. Think he could get looks in some red zone packages and his speed could cause mismatches especially when X and Hollywood on the field.

 

[EBF]

To make an NBA analogy, Shaedon Sharpe is going to be 6'5" with a 40+ inch vertical regardless of whether he's up against a high school team or NBA players. Likewise, you can put an average high school player on the court in the NBA and he isn't going to magically grow to 6'5" with a 40+ inch vertical. The qualities that a player possesses are independent of the context, so I think the challenge (especially with RB/WR/TE) is just to determine what the guy can do.

Always appreciate your rookie write ups EBF. Thorough and nice of you to share.

As someone working on the basketball side, I caution against pointing to the measurables as evidence a guy can play though. Sharpe is actually a prime example. He may be 6'5" with a 40-inch or so, vertical (40+ vertical measurements are often inflated, btw)... but he still has A LOT to learn in terms of how to play. He has put up stats at times on bad Blazers' teams... but he and several of his highly drafted teammates (Scoot, etc.) have done little that contributes to winning. He is still young, but the jury is still very much out on him.

Of course stats are what matters in fantasy sports... but just pointing out the measurables are just a part of it. Sharpe's physical tools alone, are good enough to get by on in high school and even on the college level (most of the time). But just about every player in the NBA has size and is athletic. So in addition to the physical tools, the basketball IQ, having a clue how to play, feel for the game, etc. DOES matter. Or as you later put it... 'determining what the guy can do.' Which, while it may be influenced by... can be quite independent of his measurables.

The point was that supporting cast and situation can't manufacture physical ability.

The point was not that physical traits are the sum of a player's value.

The conversation you are quoting was specifically about how level of competition can make someone look better than he is, but what I'm saying is that context can't create exceptional qualities if the underlying tools don't exist. You can't put a bad route runner in a small conference and then suddenly see him exploding out of breaks and running crisp routes. If the underlying physical traits aren't there then you aren't going to ever see these things on tape.

The point was never that you reduce a player's value to his physical traits alone.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

WR Isaac TeSlaa, Lions - Seam threat. Play strength and straight-line speed stand out. Above average frame. Less impressive moving east-west or getting out of sharp breaks. Tight, linear athlete. Separation and route versatility are question marks. I see some parallels with Eric Decker, but I don't know if TeSlaa will be that good in possession and contested situations. He's something of a one-trick pony. I'm tempted to dig deep into the vault and compare him to former Saints WR Robert Meachem, another big/fast WR who couldn't do much except motor in a straight line. That may be harsh on TeSlaa, but the clips I've been able to find do not showcase much else.

Definitely more of a dynasty flyer than redraft. Current roster has too many others that will get touches.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

WR Teitaroa McMillan, Panthers - Big, possession-based WR. Modest vertical separator. His speed won't scare anyone in the NFL, though he has a sneaky second gear when he gets into his stride. He's a clean route runner who can thrive in the intermediate game. Drake London was a more talented version of this archetype. I think McMillan is more comparable to Michael Pittman Jr, which suggests a reasonably good outlook. He can be an effective chain mover. There's an argument that he was overdrafted by a round here. I don't really see the special qualities that you would expect from a top 10 overall selection, but I still like his chances to be a productive NFL player. Bryce Young's safety valve.

This is the guy I'm totally up in the air with. Not sure either about his upside.

 

[J Giles Band]

To make an NBA analogy, Shaedon Sharpe is going to be 6'5" with a 40+ inch vertical regardless of whether he's up against a high school team or NBA players. Likewise, you can put an average high school player on the court in the NBA and he isn't going to magically grow to 6'5" with a 40+ inch vertical. The qualities that a player possesses are independent of the context, so I think the challenge (especially with RB/WR/TE) is just to determine what the guy can do.

Always appreciate your rookie write ups EBF. Thorough and nice of you to share.

As someone working on the basketball side, I caution against pointing to the measurables as evidence a guy can play though. Sharpe is actually a prime example. He may be 6'5" with a 40-inch or so, vertical (40+ vertical measurements are often inflated, btw)... but he still has A LOT to learn in terms of how to play. He has put up stats at times on bad Blazers' teams... but he and several of his highly drafted teammates (Scoot, etc.) have done little that contributes to winning. He is still young, but the jury is still very much out on him.

Of course stats are what matters in fantasy sports... but just pointing out the measurables are just a part of it. Sharpe's physical tools alone, are good enough to get by on in high school and even on the college level (most of the time). But just about every player in the NBA has size and is athletic. So in addition to the physical tools, the basketball IQ, having a clue how to play, feel for the game, etc. DOES matter. Or as you later put it... 'determining what the guy can do.' Which, while it may be influenced by... can be quite independent of his measurables.

The point was that supporting cast and situation can't manufacture physical ability.

The point was not that physical traits are the sum of a player's value.

The conversation you are quoting was specifically about how level of competition can make someone look better than he is, but what I'm saying is that context can't create exceptional qualities if the underlying tools don't exist. You can't put a bad route runner in a small conference and then suddenly see him exploding out of breaks and running crisp routes. If the underlying physical traits aren't there then you aren't going to ever see these things on tape.

The point was never that you reduce a player's value to his physical traits alone.

Fair enough... I guess Shaedon just hit me as an odd example, as his traits haven't translated thus far. And may not.

Didn't mean to derail... carry on.

 

[Soulfly3]

Higgins and Kyle Williams hype?

Do you subscribe to SF3 Enterprise Soutions, EBF? Or do you just know ball like I do? <3

 

[oldmanhawkins]

2nd Round WRs:

WR Luther Burden III, Bears - Extreme RAC threat. A weapon out of the slot and over the middle. Ability to win consistently on the edges is a question mark. He's a bit of a style tweener, lacking the power of a Boldin or AJ Brown while lacking the finesse to win as a route technician. Evokes comparisons with other gimmicky tweeners like Josh Boyce, KaDarius Toney, and Jalen Reagor; all of whom failed to find a productive role in the NFL. More "athlete" than WR. I lean towards a fade here and would recommend other options in this ADP range.

Toney is not the name I wanted to hear - especially after Burden’s early struggles getting on the field and lining up. Though I do think Toney is quite a bit smaller and more one note. He isn’t as strong as Burden with contested catches, for instance.
I’ve struggled to find a more optimistic comp. Heard others float Cooks or even Steve Smith but those aren’t great fits in my opinion. As far as tweezers go, I’m hoping for more Golden Tate.

 

[EBF]

I was able to get through the 4th round WRs tonight. Fun group to evaluate. I was surprised by how much I liked these guys. With that being said, a green designation is all relative. It does not mean you take these players over the elite prospects. Mining for gold in the 4th round, we have to be realistic about the historical odds while trying to identify prospects who might have a chance to beat them. I think some of these guys have a chance to contribute.

4th Round WRs:

WR Chimere Dike, Titans - Great athlete. Light on his feet and fluid at every level. Doesn't play to his timed speed as a pure deep threat, but he's plenty fast. Projects as an effective route runner. Competitive. Average size and strength. While he lacks singular dominant qualities, this is the type of player who figures to get on the field and make himself useful. I'll make a comparison to Khalil Shakir. I said when Shakir was drafted that he should've been a 2nd round value. Likewise, Dike was a relative bargain here for Tennessee. Don't expect him to stack Pro Bowl nominations because he doesn't have that type of ceiling, but I'll be surprised if he isn't a good NFL player. Athletic chain mover in the same general species as McConkey, JSN, and Shakir. QB's best friend over the middle.

WR Dont'e Thornton, Raiders - I'm going to tentatively give him a buy rating, though it comes with some disclaimers. Thornton is a tall, linear deep threat. He is straight-line explosive with field-stretching potential. Big frame and reach. There are some limitations on his game though. He's a modest route runner. Just barely functional working underneath. Though his play strength seems fine, he's on the lean side from a height/weight perspective. Not a dynamic athlete in terms of agility or RAC. He's loosely in the mold of the tall downfield WRs who used to thrive in Pittsburgh alongside Roethlisberger such as Burress and Bryant. Martavis Bryant is probably the best overall comparison. Thornton will live or die on his ability to win deep because he's marginal as a chain mover. There's bust risk here, but also a realistic path to relevance. He has a non-zero chance to be a 1000+ yard guy. The upside justifies a gamble for a modest entry price (don't go crazy treating him like an elite prospect).

WR Arian Smith, Jets - An outside/slot tweener. Speed is his best trait. He's fast, but you fear that he's not technical enough to feast as a slot target nor crafty or big enough to dominate outside. Thin frame. He's faster than quick, lacking special elusiveness. That caps his potential working the middle. I didn't see great ability to win outside. The comparison he evokes is Jahan Dotson, who has thus far been unable to convert his athletic traits into useful FF output. I fear a similar trajectory for Smith. Not a terrible prospect. I just don't see a real path to a meaningful role for our purposes.

WR Jaylin Lane, Commanders - Thin slot target. Faster than quick. He almost moves more like a speed-based RB than a WR. He has a real second gear with an explosive, gliding stride. Suspect route ability and short-area quickness are a significant concern for his outlook. With marginal size and technical qualities, he may be relegated to a niche role. I'll say he's a more limited version of Devin Duvernay, a dynamic straight-line athlete with spotty positional value. Duvernay was stronger and flashed more as a route runner in college. He has generally failed to impact as a WR in the NFL, so it's hard to build a bull case for Lane if he's a lesser version of that.

WR Jalen Royals, Chiefs - Fantastic open field runner with real RAC skills. Both strong and quick in space, making him a problem to corral after the catch. He's at his best when converting short throws into RAC. He can do some of what Rice and JuJu have done for KC, providing a reliable short-term weapon for Mahomes. Deebo Samuel is a reasonable comparison. However, Royals is less convincing when pushed outside. He does not have the speed that young Deebo had, lacking a second gear to threaten vertically. He's deliberate off the line and not generally a separator. Amari Rodgers had some of these qualities when the Packers took him in the 3rd round a few years ago. He came and went without making a dent in the NFL. There are some very clear warts with Royals, but the blend of situation and talent is compelling enough to roll the dice at ADP. Potentially a poor man's Deebo or Boldin grabbing targets from Mahomes.

WR Alic Ayomanor, Titans - I didn't like him much on first glance, but warmed up as I dug into more clips. Ayomanor is the Higgins or McMillan of this 4th round cluster. He is a big possession target with modest mobility. He'll never be Randy Moss streaking down the field deep, but he can potentially earn a living doing the dirty work underneath. He has the height and physicality to thrive in that role. While he's not an overwhelming athlete, his clips show glimmers of competent route running. There are some reps where he demonstrates clean and sudden breaks. However, separation is going to be a lifelong struggle. He's not a dynamic player. He's more of a work-in-progress than McMillan or Higgins and a clear step below them as a prospect, but I do think he could potentially develop into a serviceable second option. A worthwhile stash for deep formats if you can afford to be patient. Probably not a priority in shallow leagues where upside is the guiding concern.

WR Jordan Watkins, 49ers - He's roughly in the Pat Bryant space where he excels at everything while lacking standout traits. Size is a limitation. He can't overpower defenders at the catch point or in space. However, his overall level of athleticism is above average. Has some speed and moderate open field elusiveness. Gritty and effective player. I skew positive on his tape. At the same time, the best versions of his type are people like Eddie Royal and Andre Roberts who didn't exactly set the FF world on fire. I like the player. I'm not sure if the ceiling is going to be useful in FF since he lacks superlative traits. Likely a role player.


Fun cluster of WRs to evaluate. Gun to my head, I'll once again identify the first WR of the round as my favorite (Higgins 2nd round, Williams 3rd round, Dike 4th round). If we include Hunter, it's probably a pure 4/4. Entirely coincidental, but that's how it worked out this year. I'm buying Dike stocks.

Thornton and Royals also earn buy ratings, albeit with more reservations.

I consider Ayomanor and Watkins to be rosterable.

Lane and Smith are creeping into fade territory.

 

[EBF]

WR Teitaroa McMillan, Panthers - Big, possession-based WR. Modest vertical separator. His speed won't scare anyone in the NFL, though he has a sneaky second gear when he gets into his stride. He's a clean route runner who can thrive in the intermediate game. Drake London was a more talented version of this archetype. I think McMillan is more comparable to Michael Pittman Jr, which suggests a reasonably good outlook. He can be an effective chain mover. There's an argument that he was overdrafted by a round here. I don't really see the special qualities that you would expect from a top 10 overall selection, but I still like his chances to be a productive NFL player. Bryce Young's safety valve.

This is the guy I'm totally up in the air with. Not sure either about his upside.

He should probably send about 50% of his rookie contract to Mike Evans because it's a copycat league. With London and Evans thriving, we're back in 1995 again. Teams see big/tall/decently mobile and assume it will work out like that. I like McMillan, but top 10 is lofty for a security blanket.

If you consider the pick from the lens of need, it may be worth overpaying by half a round to make your franchise QB comfortable. They took a huge risk on Young. By paying a premium for McMillan, you can at least say they are trying to surround Bryce with the pieces that he needs.

In a vacuum, is McMillan that good?

I don't think he's Andre, Julio, Dez, Demaryius. He doesn't look that dynamic. He seems like more of a Keyshawn Johnson type.

 

[EBF]

Blasted through the 5th-7th round WRs today. This is pure lottery ticket territory. For the sake of full disclosure, I did not spend as much time-per-player on this group as I did the round 1-4 guys. Knowing the historical odds of this cluster, defaulting to pessimism is entirely logical. I assume a modest outlook for these late round guys while hoping to see something special on tape that intrigues me. Consequently, the comments are a lot less thorough. What you see here is basically just my notes.


5th Round WRs:

WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Chargers - Inside/out versatility. Flashes some RAC potential. Highlight grabs at the catch point. Game lacks vertical component. Kendrick Bourne type? Potentially a useful piece of the equation. Rosterable. Upside may be modest.

WR Tory Horton, Seahawks - Slight frame. Easily tackled. Rounds breaks. Lack of power limits RAC. Downfield game just okay? Modest ceiling?

6th Round WRs:

WR LaJohntay Wester, Ravens - Tiny frame. Slot/KR/PR weapon. Questionable ceiling. Catch point and outside skills? Has some elusiveness. Dangerous in space. We could call him a poor man's Tank Dell or Xavier Worthy. While we are drafting players rather than situations, the Lamar factor looms over every WR who goes to Baltimore. He has gotten modest production out of Flowers and Bateman, and Wester is a lesser prospect.

WR Jimmy Horn Jr, Panthers - Poor man's Titus Young or Ruggs. Vertical ability. Lacks size or real route technique. Niche deep threat out of the slot.

WR Tommy Mellott, Raiders - QB convert. Power and speed for RAC situations. Eric Crouch type. Compact and agile. Almost a complete unknown as a WR, given the lack of tape at this position. Justifiable stash in deep formats if you are intrigued by the wild card factor. Very hard to say what he is though.

7th Round WRs:

WR Tez Johnson, Buccaneers - Comparable to Wester. Tiny slot weapon with dynamic athletic qualities. Has some explosiveness. Good player. Volume and utility may be capped by frame.

WR Ricky White III, Seahawks - Slot/special teams depth.

WR Kaden Prather, Bills - Depth candidate. Some size and catch point potential. Marginal athletic traits.

WR Konata Mumpfield, Rams - Slot operator with modest mobility. Athletic at the catch point. Slow starter. Deliberate in breaks and movement. Poor man's Keenan Allen. He wants to win with finesse, but isn't a GREAT athlete. In the mold of a Kenny Lawler. Undifferentiated athletic parts likely dictate a modest outlook.

WR Dominic Lovett, Lions - Slot target with limited outside ability. Some speed and agility after the catch. Modest ceiling. Best comps are people like Steve Smith (NYG) and Sterling Shephard. That may point to a slightly better trajectory than your typical 7th rounder. Probably still safe to ignore him.

WR Junior Bergen, 49ers - Return man. Questionable ceiling for WR duty.



Kind of a ho-hum group this year. I didn't see much to get excited about. You can maybe envision Lovett or Lambert-Smith having deep format value because of favorable situation and medium talent. There's some dynamism to Tez Johnson and Lajohntay Wester, though they have significant frame limitations. Overall, I don't see a Javon Baker or Khalil Shakir in here that I really want to go to bat for. I think maybe we leave these guys on waivers and just keep an ear to the ground in case one of them starts building momentum.

 

[EBF]

I am now done with all the RBs and WRs. If we are keeping track, the buy list is looking like this so far:

RB - TreVeyon Henderson, RJ Harvey, Woody Marks, Tahj Brooks
WR - Jayden Higgins, Kyle Williams, Chim Dike, Dont'e Thornton, Jalen Royals

There are other names I like some, but this would be a starting point for my RB/WR shopping list in drafts.

I'll do a pass through the TEs when I get a chance. If I have any spare energy, I'll try to cover the QBs, though that is the toughest skill position to evaluate and the one requiring the steepest time investment.

 

[dipandglide]

The king has returned! Thanks for the thoughts!

 

[EBF]

Working my way through the TEs. Let's start with the high picks.

TIGHT ENDS

1st Round TEs:

TE Colston Loveland, Bears - Tall, somewhat lean. High level athleticism for the position. Plus speed and quickness. Not ELITE wiggle in space, but looser in his routes than most players this size. Can win on the edge with route running, yet also possesses some speed to pick up extra yards after the catch. Adequate play strength and physicality. A jumbo WR type of TE. The intersection of Tyler Eifert and George Kittle, which suggests a starting future with a Pro Bowl ceiling. He's not an all-timer, but makes sense as a first round pick in the NFL draft since he has plus starter traits and no major flaws. A safe prospect who should have a solid career at a minimum.

TE Tyler Warren, Colts - Warren is more differentiated than the other TEs in this class, offering a unique skill set and play style. Not the twitchiest athlete you'll ever see at the position. Somewhat sluggish off the snap, but very physical in space and a dangerous runner with the ball in his hands. They liked to manufacture touches for him and he generally took advantage of these opportunities. Plays almost like a big, slow RB in space, getting downhill and punishing tacklers. Overall, a dump-off weapon who can also move the chains as a possession receiver. Had some impressive wins in contested situations. You wish he was just a little more explosive, but there is still an intriguing upside for FF. The premise of Warren is that he adds value over replacement with his ability to tack on extra yards after the catch. If you are debating who to take as TE1 in this rookie class, I think it's a tight decision. Loveland is the sharper athlete overall, but Warren's tape shows more versatility and RAC. That may lead me to favor his upside, though I think it's close. I may characterize Warren as slightly higher risk-reward.

2nd Round TEs:

TE Mason Taylor, Jets - Jack-of-all trades prospect, consistent with the 2nd round talent level. He can do a bit of everything. Adequate frame for full-time duty. Not dynamite off the snap, but relatively clean and sudden at the top of his routes. Respectable RAC ability, though not elite. The comparisons he evokes are people like Cade Otton and Jake Ferguson. I think we are looking at a future starter with marginal traits for FF. No massive flaws. Lacks the sizzle of a first round talent.

TE Terrance Ferguson, Rams - Above average speed. Glider in space. Faster than quick, he lacks suddenness. Ferguson is most impressive on crossing routes where he can use his speed to convert short throws into big gains. Not the most convincing route runner. He rounds his cuts. I don't see real elusiveness or quickness, even relative to the TE position. Play strength is not notable. Overall, we could call him a poor man's OJ Howard. Linear speed threat who wins on crossing routes and slants. May be too flawed for a big FF yield. I'd be comfortable ignoring him in my drafts.

TE Elijah Arroyo, Seahawks - Movement can be muddy at times, but the overall effect is still above average. Looser and more explosive than the average TE prospect. Enough size and versatility to potentially grow into a starting role. Don't get too excited though. Ceiling is probably closer to Cole Kmet territory than someone like Kelce or Andrews. In shallow leages and standard formats, I wouldn't lose sleep over ignoring him. In TE-premium, maybe we think about him as a depth option.

3rd Round TEs:

TE Harold Fannin, Browns - Slant/crossing threat who wants to win via RAC. I'm not convinced that he's gifted enough to make it work. Choppy mover. I'd question his potential as a route runner. Not sudden or electric in space. If he can't win outside and isn't truly dynamic in space, I don't think his future is very bright. Niche player. I'm comfortable passing.

4th Round TEs:

TE Gunnar Helm, Titans - Big frame. He can win with size and physicality at the catch point. Movement and athleticism are marginal. Modest burst. Not elusive in space. We can envision him finding a prominent role in the NFL, but the lack of plus athletic traits puts a low cap on his ceiling.



To summarize this cluster, it looks like the league got it absolutely right by picking Loveland and Warren first. While it's hard to choose between them, they seem to be a clear cut above the rest. I didn't love anyone else, but Taylor and Arroyo have a pulse in deep formats.

I'll take a look at the 5th-7th rounders to see if there might be any hidden gems lurking.

 

[EBF]

Let's try to finish what we started. In the 5th-7th round range, we are mostly looking at longshots and career backups. Can anyone surprise?

5th Round TEs:

TE Mitchell Evans, Panthers - Big target. Very modest athletic traits. There's potential to get on the field and contribute. Ceiling for FF looks negligible.

TE Oronde Gadsden II, Chargers - Poor man's Jordan Reed. TE/WR tweener who lacks the requisite athleticism to excel.

TE Jackson Hawes, Bills - Apparently more known for blocking than receiving, though I thought his clips showed plus acceleration and agility compared to this cluster. Over-aged prospect at 24? Currently blocked by Kincaid. The ceiling isn't freaky, but there may be a path to an eventual starting job somewhere. I'd deem him the best talent of this 5th-7th round cluster, while still cautioning that he's more of a deep format stash than a guy you need to prioritize.

6th Round TEs:

TE Gavin Bartholomew, Vikings - I like the value in the 6th round if we are talking real-world impact. He's big and can block some. Passable athlete. You can see him becoming a valuable backup TE for Minnesota. However, the ceiling for FF looks absolutely negligible. No speed or elusiveness to speak of. No dynamism to his game.

7th Round TEs:

TE Thomas Fidone, Giants - Can motor a little bit after the catch, but it's straight-line movement. He isn't nimble or agile. His speed is not WOW level. Tight, limited route runner. Some physicality. The overall prognosis seems like something we can safely ignore.

TE Caleb Lohner, Broncos - I couldn't find many clips of him. From what I saw, a reasonable developmental TE. Serviceable all-around talent with no superlative traits. I know I'm becoming a broken record here when I say this, but the lack of standout traits means we can probably pass on him with minimal fear of regret.

TE Moliki Matavao, Saints - Straight-line dump-off target who wants to rumble after the catch. Doesn't offer much in the way of speed, evasiveness, or route skill. Probably just a situational target with niche usage.

TE Luke Lachey, Texans - Similar to Bartholomew. Big body who wins with physicality. Nothing special athletically. You can see him finding a role in the NFL. Once again, the low ceiling means we probably don't need to think about him in FF.


Overall, I didn't see much cause for excitement here. A few of these guys have a conceivable path to work their way into a starting job and be an emergency starting option in FF (Lachey, Lohner, Bartholomew, Evans). Hawes looks like the one player who may have a slightly higher trajectory. I'll give him a soft recommend, but he should only be a consideration deep in your drafts when the WR/RB talent has dried up. While he may have some untapped potential as a pass catcher, he's not a special talent or someone who is going to burn you for passing on him ala Kittle/Kelce/Andrews.

 

[EBF]

If we add the TEs, the buy list is looking like this:

RB - TreVeyon Henderson, RJ Harvey, Woody Marks, Tahj Brooks
WR - Jayden Higgins, Kyle Williams, Chim Dike, Dont'e Thornton, Jalen Royals
TE - Jackson Hawes

To reiterate, these are not rankings. A player's absence from this list doesn't mean I wouldn't draft him. It just means I don't think his value is significantly above ADP. Likewise, putting a player like Marks or Royals on this list doesn't mean I think he's a first tier prospect. It just means I like him more than ADP peers.

I like Jeanty. I like both Warren and Loveland. Those are solid first round NFL talents who look like reasonably safe projections to the NFL.

I already liked Henderson and he's been looking good in the preseason, so he would be near the top of my hypothetical board.

 

[dipandglide]

Do you give any weight to Loveland based on the age difference between him and Warren?

 

[EBF]

Do you give any weight to Loveland based on the age difference between him and Warren?

I could probably be convinced to put either one at TE1 in this draft, so that sort of thing might be a tiebreaker.

With more potential development in the tank, there might be an argument that he has higher latent potential.