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2025 Team Defense & Defense by Committee Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Pietaster2
Footballguy
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I’ve tried to find this with little luck.
Here is one attempt from a few years ago: https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-team-defense
In sum:
If you’re going to stream defenses, I’d look at a defense’s opposing passer rating in conjunction with the opposing offense’s team passer rating, the combined sack rates of both the offense and defense, and the Vegas spread. I’d then break ties by selecting whichever team is also playing at home.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Got the top defense 3 weeks in a row: KC, CLE, KC
Would have had 4 if I didn’t chicken out with the commies vs Houston and had the number 4 defense the week before that.
Maybe I’m getting better at this. Or maybe just luckier…
Would have had 4 if I didn’t chicken out with the commies vs Houston and had the number 4 defense the week before that.
Maybe I’m getting better at this. Or maybe just luckier…
Faust
MVP
While Patriots offense gets headlines, defense is breaking opponents’ spirits | Chris Mason
Patriots Rookie Marcus Jones Becoming Triple Threat
How the Patriots defense can keep playoff hopes alive against Arizona
Patriots defense will use a familiar approach against Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray
Patriots Rookie Marcus Jones Becoming Triple Threat
How the Patriots defense can keep playoff hopes alive against Arizona
Patriots defense will use a familiar approach against Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray
I don't recall seeing the data behind it, but the author of the subvertadown site has said choosing a defense is 2/3 opposing offense and 1/3 own defense (and has said that in 2022 everyone is having trouble projecting defenses, so maybe the ratio is off).
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
His articles are interesting.
His accuracy was a lot better when he gave it away on Reddit. He has been tweaking his models and it has gotten worse lol. But I like his transparency.
Accuracy rankings are totally random. Year over year, guys who were Top 10 Top 20 one year are outside the Top 125 a year later. It’s always been that way.
(I’m referring to the couple hundred X Spurts at Fantasy Pros, which draws its roster from virtually every notable FF site)
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Holding ARI for next week - @ DEN with with Brett Rylien likely starting
not sure who I’m starting tonight; have both, little confidence in either
not sure who I’m starting tonight; have both, little confidence in either
Pietaster2
Footballguy
Broncos DST just got better:
Week 15: home vs. a Colt McCoy led Cardinals
Week 16: @Rams
Got to punt them for week 17 against KC, if you make it that far, but it’s hard to beat those first two playoff matchups if you don’t want to hold multiple DSTs through the playoffs.
Week 15: home vs. a Colt McCoy led Cardinals
Week 16: @Rams
Got to punt them for week 17 against KC, if you make it that far, but it’s hard to beat those first two playoff matchups if you don’t want to hold multiple DSTs through the playoffs.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Broncos have been rostered all year but I currently have the Cardinals
don’t think I want to rely on anything associated with KK ros though & that bad D / great matchup thing doesn’t seem to always work
have the Pats, but back end of a two week road trip and a short week - seems like a bad idea but Raiders might spiral after a demoralizing loss
Jets are out there, Goff has been way less efficient on the road
Vikngs have the always generous Colts at home but their defense is putrid
don’t think I want to rely on anything associated with KK ros though & that bad D / great matchup thing doesn’t seem to always work
have the Pats, but back end of a two week road trip and a short week - seems like a bad idea but Raiders might spiral after a demoralizing loss
Jets are out there, Goff has been way less efficient on the road
Vikngs have the always generous Colts at home but their defense is putrid
I guess I shouldn't have dropped NE the week they played BUF. Their matchups suck the next 3 weeks but they still seem must start vs LV. Unfortunately someone grabbed them so not an option for me.
This week I'm rolling GB vs the Rams. I'm also keeping my eye on Carolina vs Trubisky and New Orleans vs Ridder.
This week I'm rolling GB vs the Rams. I'm also keeping my eye on Carolina vs Trubisky and New Orleans vs Ridder.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Not worried about Justin Fields? It’s in Chicago. I could see the bears lingering around in that game.
Yeah, certainly am worried-- the Bills D fared way better than I thought vs the Jets tho -- Also, in my league, the Bears are #4 in points against D --and have given up double digit points to defenses since Week 8 --
The reason I like Green Bay is they are a run funnel defense but LA cannot run the ball on anyone. The Raiders only scored 6 points in my league but if it wasnt for that dumb penalty knocking the ball out of Mayfield's hand they wouldve scored 10 (which wouldve been their 2nd highest of the season). New Orleans vs a rookie QB seems solid BUT I expect the Falcons to run, run, run, run like they have all season so sack opportunities may be limited.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I've got Ravens and Chiefs stacked with a bye as well.
I'd rather have what you have
I think he recently said the average top pick is getting 8 ppg.
I don't think the way they try to capture accuracy is the best way to capture what's really happening. And I've noticed some crazy outlier rankings later in the year that I think are attempts by individuals to make up ground in the rankings, like finding the right daily play.
KaeptainAmerica
Footballguy
Our league has a very aggressive pts structure for team defenses. A score can range anywhere from -10 to 40 based in part on pts and yds allowed.
I currently have Eagles and Broncos rostered and both have fairly good matchups:
Eagles vs Bears
Broncos vs Cards
Packers and Panthers are both available, but Packers have been equally as bad on defense as the Rams have been on offense lately. I can't see myself hitching my playoff hopes to the Panthers' wagon. I also love that the Broncos play Colt McCoy this week, and they get the Rams in week 16.
Do I stand pat or make a move to acquire one of these other defenses?
I currently have Eagles and Broncos rostered and both have fairly good matchups:
Eagles vs Bears
Broncos vs Cards
Packers and Panthers are both available, but Packers have been equally as bad on defense as the Rams have been on offense lately. I can't see myself hitching my playoff hopes to the Panthers' wagon. I also love that the Broncos play Colt McCoy this week, and they get the Rams in week 16.
Do I stand pat or make a move to acquire one of these other defenses?
Green Bay has been so bad on defense though and Mayfield looked okay last week. Carolina available as well. I may pick up GB or CAR just to block my opponent from getting them but hold KC and NO.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Have a bye and lined up Broncos vs Rams week 16 and Chiefs vs Broncos week 17. Nothing else out there anyway
Im currently holding both GB and CAr and will decide late in the week which one to play based on injury reports making sure to drop the other one late enough so that my opponent doesnt play them.
Runkle
Footballguy
With a bye this week, I'm hoarding KC (vs SEA and DEN), LAC (vs IND, LAR), NYG (vs MIN and IND), JAX (vs NYJ and HOU) and DEN (vs LAR and KC) for my final two games. Cut loose the Seahawks.
I'll need to cut one next week to roster a kicker in week 16, so if I don't use the Broncos looks like they'll be the castoff (late enough in the week to not clear waivers and be used against me of course).
I'll need to cut one next week to roster a kicker in week 16, so if I don't use the Broncos looks like they'll be the castoff (late enough in the week to not clear waivers and be used against me of course).
And how much worse than Mariota can Ridder be?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
deep sleeper pick here:
I'm a little nervous starting Bam Knight this week bc the Lions are shutting down RBs of late. Saquon only managed 14-22-0 & 2-13, Dalvin Cook 15-22-1 & 1-13. They are now 24h (e.g., 9th fewest) in FF points allowed to RBs. Still wouldn't use them v NYJ bc they still have issues whenever either Jeff Okiudah or Jerry Jacobs are out, but from Weeks 8-12 they were the third most efficient pass defense (i'm sure that blew up with the day Cousins-Jefferson just had.)
Anyway, one to think about for Week 16 at Carolina and Week 17 at home versus the Bears. They are rolling as a team and the improved defense is the real story of their turnaround. Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston (4 sacks in the last 3 games) are getting after QBs and they are generating a decent amount of turnovers.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I picked up Saints (dropped Cardinals) bc they've been solid and I love the matchup. Will probably be a spot start only - also added the NYJ and think they're a good call for Week 16 (home v Jax on TNF.)
Holding a 3rd DST, hard to part with the Patriots. They're a big reason I led my league in DST points (245/17.55 / wk...Pats have 184 but I only used them 5 times.) I might start them in the Week 17 rematch with the Fins at home. If I advance....
19 DSTs rostered in our league so none of the layup matchups for the next 3 weeks are out there. But I've had pretty good success this year streaming.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
That's a hell of a tandem. Goes without saying that you're going to whiff on the "right" selection frequently. Hopefully "whiffing" with a stud DST gives you a nice floor. Congrats on getting last week's miss out of the way...
It's far from a full-proof plan, but I have found myself going with a hybrid of fantasy footballers consensus and Paul Charchian this year. They both have SF over DAL this week, for whatever that's worth.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Speaking of Cowboys, anyone with lesser options than the 49ers pivoting off of the Eagles matchup in week 16?
I have added Lions (week 16 @ car). I'm thinking about making a difficult drop to secure the Titans (HOU matchup week 16), just for keep-away if nothing else.
I still think I'm going to have to ride Dallas' playmaking potential in week 16. They're always one play away from doing something that would offset allowing 34 points. However, if Eagles are putting up 35+, I probably have to give some thought to the pivot.
I have added Lions (week 16 @ car). I'm thinking about making a difficult drop to secure the Titans (HOU matchup week 16), just for keep-away if nothing else.
I still think I'm going to have to ride Dallas' playmaking potential in week 16. They're always one play away from doing something that would offset allowing 34 points. However, if Eagles are putting up 35+, I probably have to give some thought to the pivot.
nirad3
Footballguy
I'm looking ahead to Week 16 right now since my best D/ST is the Pats and I don't particularly like the matchup against CIN. Also have PIT rostered, and they only have an "OK" matchup against the Raiders.
Best options seem to be TEN (against HOU), but I'll need to wait until they clear waivers. DEN (@LAR) seems OK too.
Any thoughts?
Best options seem to be TEN (against HOU), but I'll need to wait until they clear waivers. DEN (@LAR) seems OK too.
Any thoughts?
hamsterdam
Footballguy
I had Washington ready to go vs SF but it’s not looking so good anymore. Might just roll with Philly
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