2nd and 3rd year WRs (1 Viewer)

[loose circuits]

Jennings has a nose for the end zone. I watch too many Packer games, and that kid can play. I thought he was a fluke midway through the season, but he tore it up no doubt...I bet most of his TD catches were after the catch type runs. Not a result of Brett Favre

I thought YAC was that way as well and that Favre was not a big part of it, then I researched it and did not get impressed from these stats:(Now I need to check how many of them 394 yards turned into TDs)NFL Leaders: Yards After Catch (Receivers) (Thru Dec. 30, 2007)

1 Brian Westbrook Phi 806

2 Wes Welker NE 640

3 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 573

4 Brandon Marshall Den 549

5 Roddy White Atl 477

6 Steve Smith Car 476

7 Kenny Watson Cin 472

8 Adrian Peterson Chi 459

9 Clinton Portis Was 452

10 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 444

11 Donald Driver GB 438

12 Frank Gore SF 416

13 Reggie Wayne Ind 410

14 Marques Colston NO 403

15 Reggie Bush NO 401

16t Ronnie Brown Mia 394

16t Greg Jennings GB 394

16t Maurice Jones-Drew Jac 394

19 Jason Witten Dal 390

20 Joey Galloway TB 389

BTW, not to hijack the thread or anything, but now I like Welker even more. And look at them 9 RBs with the screens and all - almost half the top 20!

that still puts him in the top 10 for WR's.I guess I just think people are overrating Favre's loss when evaluating Jennings. Jennings has done nothing but get it done (when on the field). If Rodgers stays healthy, I think he should have a decent season. Ryan Grant and that D will take some pressure off the passing game, no doubt.

 

[DropKick]

Ted Ginn had 8 catches on 20 targets over his first 9 games in his rookie season last year.

That extrapolates to 14 catches on 36 targets for a full season.

Then he had 26 catches on 51 targets over his last 7 games.

That extrapolates to 59 catches on 117 targets for a full season.

That's the kind of growth I like to see. I think he'll continue to develop in his 2nd season and like his chances for a true breakout year.

with who running the show? Beck? Henne? While I do like Ginn, I really think Miami is another 2-3 years away from even being respectable. IRRC Lemon made Ginn look ok. I don't see Beck or even Henne making him a legit Fantasy option this season, maybe even for 2 seasons.

Concerning Lemon making Ginn look ok, I just checked the numbers for the last 7 games when Ginn began to emerge (a few weeks after the Chambers trade). During those 7 games Lemon was 77-143 for 53.8% and Beck was 60-107 for 56.1%. Neither was special. I'm not a defender of Beck or a believer in him at this point. I do think Henne will be the guy when he's learned enough, but I believe they will avoid rushing him into the lineup since it's going to be a lost season anyway.

I think my point though isn't to argue about that, but that whoever the QB is has to have somebody to go to, and I just see Ginn getting a growing share of the pie. Even bad teams complete 50-55% of their passes, throw between 450 and 550 balls, and with a new (and pedestrian) WR2 in Wilford, a new inexperienced TE in Fasano, and a relatively poor WR3 in Hagan, Ginn will get his catches.

Not to change the topic, but with your "insight" into the situation, what was the Chambers trade all about?

 

[Banger]

Jennings has a nose for the end zone. I watch too many Packer games, and that kid can play. I thought he was a fluke midway through the season, but he tore it up no doubt...I bet most of his TD catches were after the catch type runs. Not a result of Brett Favre

I thought YAC was that way as well and that Favre was not a big part of it, then I researched it and did not get impressed from these stats:(Now I need to check how many of them 394 yards turned into TDs)NFL Leaders: Yards After Catch (Receivers) (Thru Dec. 30, 2007)

1 Brian Westbrook Phi 806

2 Wes Welker NE 640

3 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 573

4 Brandon Marshall Den 549

5 Roddy White Atl 477

6 Steve Smith Car 476

7 Kenny Watson Cin 472

8 Adrian Peterson Chi 459

9 Clinton Portis Was 452

10 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 444

11 Donald Driver GB 438

12 Frank Gore SF 416

13 Reggie Wayne Ind 410

14 Marques Colston NO 403

15 Reggie Bush NO 401

16t Ronnie Brown Mia 394

16t Greg Jennings GB 394

16t Maurice Jones-Drew Jac 394

19 Jason Witten Dal 390

20 Joey Galloway TB 389

BTW, not to hijack the thread or anything, but now I like Welker even more. And look at them 9 RBs with the screens and all - almost half the top 20!

That's one of the reasons I'm so high on Marshall. He will get the ball every game no matter what. Toward the end of the year they were throwing him the ball a few times a game at the line just to get the ball into his hands and let him make something happen. Marshall - tremendous YAC, will get the ball a ton and his best competition was cut.

Colston - good redzone target, little competition

Calvin - on potential upside

Holmes - nice homerun potential, needs more targets, needs to stay healthy

Jennings - questionable QB, more competition

 

[Banger]

Jennings has a nose for the end zone. I watch too many Packer games, and that kid can play. I thought he was a fluke midway through the season, but he tore it up no doubt...I bet most of his TD catches were after the catch type runs. Not a result of Brett Favre

I thought YAC was that way as well and that Favre was not a big part of it, then I researched it and did not get impressed from these stats:(Now I need to check how many of them 394 yards turned into TDs)NFL Leaders: Yards After Catch (Receivers) (Thru Dec. 30, 2007)

1 Brian Westbrook Phi 806

2 Wes Welker NE 640

3 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 573

4 Brandon Marshall Den 549

5 Roddy White Atl 477

6 Steve Smith Car 476

7 Kenny Watson Cin 472

8 Adrian Peterson Chi 459

9 Clinton Portis Was 452

10 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 444

11 Donald Driver GB 438

12 Frank Gore SF 416

13 Reggie Wayne Ind 410

14 Marques Colston NO 403

15 Reggie Bush NO 401

16t Ronnie Brown Mia 394

16t Greg Jennings GB 394

16t Maurice Jones-Drew Jac 394

19 Jason Witten Dal 390

20 Joey Galloway TB 389

BTW, not to hijack the thread or anything, but now I like Welker even more. And look at them 9 RBs with the screens and all - almost half the top 20!

that still puts him in the top 10 for WR's.I guess I just think people are overrating Favre's loss when evaluating Jennings. Jennings has done nothing but get it done (when on the field). If Rodgers stays healthy, I think he should have a decent season. Ryan Grant and that D will take some pressure off the passing game, no doubt.

We'll see but I think Favre's ability to avoid sacks, read defenses, throw the deep ball, hit the slants in stride are all going to missed. They also opened things up big time. Last year against Minn Favre's passing ability opened the lanes up to run on that vaunted defense. Teams are going to challenge Rodgers and we'll see if he's up to it.

 

[Couch Potato]

Ted Ginn had 8 catches on 20 targets over his first 9 games in his rookie season last year.

That extrapolates to 14 catches on 36 targets for a full season.

Then he had 26 catches on 51 targets over his last 7 games.

That extrapolates to 59 catches on 117 targets for a full season.

That's the kind of growth I like to see. I think he'll continue to develop in his 2nd season and like his chances for a true breakout year.

with who running the show? Beck? Henne? While I do like Ginn, I really think Miami is another 2-3 years away from even being respectable. IRRC Lemon made Ginn look ok. I don't see Beck or even Henne making him a legit Fantasy option this season, maybe even for 2 seasons.

Concerning Lemon making Ginn look ok, I just checked the numbers for the last 7 games when Ginn began to emerge (a few weeks after the Chambers trade). During those 7 games Lemon was 77-143 for 53.8% and Beck was 60-107 for 56.1%. Neither was special. I'm not a defender of Beck or a believer in him at this point. I do think Henne will be the guy when he's learned enough, but I believe they will avoid rushing him into the lineup since it's going to be a lost season anyway.

I think my point though isn't to argue about that, but that whoever the QB is has to have somebody to go to, and I just see Ginn getting a growing share of the pie. Even bad teams complete 50-55% of their passes, throw between 450 and 550 balls, and with a new (and pedestrian) WR2 in Wilford, a new inexperienced TE in Fasano, and a relatively poor WR3 in Hagan, Ginn will get his catches.

Not to change the topic, but with your "insight" into the situation, what was the Chambers trade all about?

The Dolphins' perspective: Trent Green went down early, and although Chambers was strong the first few games of the year, they were 0-3. They then went to 0-5 and Chambers only had 2 catches in each game, and there were rumblings that he wasn't giving full effort. In the week 6 loss, while he caught 6 passes, there were also a couple of deep incompletions that he appeared to not really try his best to get to. It seemed that at 0-6 he was sort of mailing it in, and of course at 0-6 the Dolphins knew their season was done. The team knew a major rebuild was in store, Chambers was 29, his contract for 2008 was going to be $5.1 mil, and Ginn was just drafted early in the 1st round. A new staff felt no particular ties or allegiance to Chambers.The Chargers' perspective: SD was considered a strong Super Bowl contender coming into the season but struggled early. After a 14-2 2006 season, they were 1-3 to begin 2007. Starter Eric Parker hadn't played all season due to a toe injury that wasn't healing, and they were relying too much on Gates. Vincent Jackson was doing OK, but on the other side rookie 1st round pick and then-starter Craig Davis was really struggling, with only 9 catches and 76 yards through 6 games. The Chargers had seen how New England dismantled them with 38 points in week 2 and felt they needed to do something to shore up their starting WR position and offense overall. HC Turner had been Chambers' OC in Chambers' 2nd and 3rd seasons in the league.

The Deal: The organizations had connections and probably pretty decent communication since each HC had been OCs for the other team (Turner in 2002-3, Cameron in 2002-6). The Chargers gave the Dolphins a 2nd round 2008 pick for Chambers. The trade took place after week 6, giving Chambers an extra week to prepare since the Chargers had a week 7 bye, and the Turner and Cameron systems were similar. Eric Parker was placed on IR that week also, and Davis taken out of the lineup in week 8 in favor of Chambers. The 2nd round pick was a good deal for MIA as was unloading the salary, since being a contender any time soon isn't likely. The pick was used to get Chad Henne, who they hope to be their QBOTF. And the Chargers went on to win 10 of their next 12 games with Chambers as their WR1, including playoff wins over TEN and IND, before losing at NE in the AFC title game.

 

[bcr8f]

Greg Jennings - Good player, but the loss of Favre is going to hurt. Also might have some competition for balls with Driver,Jones,Lee,Nelson

It didn't hurt in the Dallas game. They do have chemistry together and he runs well in space.

 

[Max Power]

I'm shocked at how many people think Rodgers will just take over for Favre and the Packers won't miss a beat. Favre is one of the best QBs to ever play the game. While Rodgers might be a good QB, too many posters point to 2 Quarters against Dallas as proof the kid can ball.

Let me remind you that there was once a period in Chicago were Rex Grossman was the best thing to happen to the City since Jordan.

Jennings is a nice player, but I do expect both Jennings and Ryan Grant to fall from the Fantasy elite this season.

 

[squistion]

Jennings has a nose for the end zone. I watch too many Packer games, and that kid can play. I thought he was a fluke midway through the season, but he tore it up no doubt...I bet most of his TD catches were after the catch type runs. Not a result of Brett Favre

I thought YAC was that way as well and that Favre was not a big part of it, then I researched it and did not get impressed from these stats:(Now I need to check how many of them 394 yards turned into TDs)NFL Leaders: Yards After Catch (Receivers) (Thru Dec. 30, 2007)

1 Brian Westbrook Phi 806

2 Wes Welker NE 640

3 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 573

4 Brandon Marshall Den 549

5 Roddy White Atl 477

6 Steve Smith Car 476

7 Kenny Watson Cin 472

8 Adrian Peterson Chi 459

9 Clinton Portis Was 452

10 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 444

11 Donald Driver GB 438

12 Frank Gore SF 416

13 Reggie Wayne Ind 410

14 Marques Colston NO 403

15 Reggie Bush NO 401

16t Ronnie Brown Mia 394

16t Greg Jennings GB 394

16t Maurice Jones-Drew Jac 394

19 Jason Witten Dal 390

20 Joey Galloway TB 389

BTW, not to hijack the thread or anything, but now I like Welker even more. And look at them 9 RBs with the screens and all - almost half the top 20!

I think it is misleading to dismiss Jennings by simply looking at total yards after the catch. He averaged 7.4 yards after the catch, which was best in the league for any receiver who had 50+ catches. Plus his average of 17.4 yards per catch was 4th best among all WRs.

 

[womb]

Jennings has a nose for the end zone. I watch too many Packer games, and that kid can play. I thought he was a fluke midway through the season, but he tore it up no doubt...I bet most of his TD catches were after the catch type runs. Not a result of Brett Favre

I thought YAC was that way as well and that Favre was not a big part of it, then I researched it and did not get impressed from these stats:(Now I need to check how many of them 394 yards turned into TDs)NFL Leaders: Yards After Catch (Receivers) (Thru Dec. 30, 2007)

1 Brian Westbrook Phi 806

2 Wes Welker NE 640

3 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 573

4 Brandon Marshall Den 549

5 Roddy White Atl 477

6 Steve Smith Car 476

7 Kenny Watson Cin 472

8 Adrian Peterson Chi 459

9 Clinton Portis Was 452

10 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 444

11 Donald Driver GB 438

12 Frank Gore SF 416

13 Reggie Wayne Ind 410

14 Marques Colston NO 403

15 Reggie Bush NO 401

16t Ronnie Brown Mia 394

16t Greg Jennings GB 394

16t Maurice Jones-Drew Jac 394

19 Jason Witten Dal 390

20 Joey Galloway TB 389

BTW, not to hijack the thread or anything, but now I like Welker even more. And look at them 9 RBs with the screens and all - almost half the top 20!

I think it is misleading to dismiss Jennings by simply looking at total yards after the catch. He averaged 7.4 yards after the catch, which was best in the league for any receiver who had 50+ catches. Plus his average of 17.4 yards per catch was 4th best among all WRs.

Dude, I am a happy Jennings owner. I just had thought he racked them YAC's up real good. I was almost certain he was at LT range. I got disillusioned when I saw the stats. They are great, but not as much as I expected. You really do not need to tell me off. I like the guy a lot.

 

[squistion]

Dude, I am a happy Jennings owner. I just had thought he racked them YAC's up real good. I was almost certain he was at LT range. I got disillusioned when I saw the stats. They are great, but not as much as I expected. You really do not need to tell me off. I like the guy a lot.

Dude, I was not telling you off. You mentioned that you "did not get impressed" after looking at his total YAC. I was pointing out that his average YPC and average yards YAC are indeed quite impressive.

 

[Banger]

Greg Jennings - Good player, but the loss of Favre is going to hurt. Also might have some competition for balls with Driver,Jones,Lee,Nelson

It didn't hurt in the Dallas game. They do have chemistry together and he runs well in space.

Give a team an entire off season to prepare, watch all his tape, look at his tendencies, identify his strengths and weaknesses and you're looking at a completely different scenario IMO. He played fine but I wouldn't take much at all from that half where Dallas was in a prevent defense.

 

[SSOG]

Holmes is not a one trick pony, but he does go deep and get behind coverages best. I think he has shown flashes of being a good all around WR, but he will never be a Ward type of WR. I think Pitt will look to get Holmes more involved in the offense, yes. Make no mistake, he is still going to be their deep threat. Eventually I think we will see Sweed fill the role of "chain mover."

Holmes is a Lee Evans redux, in my opinion. He can do everything, but he excels down the field and outside of the hashes. I don't think he's as talented as Evans, but he's got a drastically better QB. I'm very high on both of them, assuming you aren't in a PPR league.

Greg Jenning had 12 TDs in 13 games last year and he's not on the top of every list? Some lists don't even include him? Even with the change at QB, that seems very odd. Most of those TDs were just short slants that Jennings turned into long TDs. I'm sure AR can throw a short slant every once in a while.

Based on my "eyeball test", Jennings just doesn't have the talent of a Brandon Marshall or a Santonio Holmes, both of whom had equally eye-popping stats last year and both of whom are much better off at QB going forward. Marshall ranked 5th in the league in receptions and 6th in yards. Santonio Holmes was on pace for a 70/1250/11 type of season, and paced the league in yards per reception. Jennings' 12 TDs in 13 games is impressive, but I'd say he had the worst season of the three, and is the most likely to decline, to boot.

 

[Ned]

Greg Jennings - Good player, but the loss of Favre is going to hurt. Also might have some competition for balls with Driver,Jones,Lee,Nelson

It didn't hurt in the Dallas game. They do have chemistry together and he runs well in space.

Give a team an entire off season to prepare, watch all his tape, look at his tendencies, identify his strengths and weaknesses and you're looking at a completely different scenario IMO. He played fine but I wouldn't take much at all from that half where Dallas was in a prevent defense.

lots of tendencies are shown in 1 half...

 

[Banger]

Greg Jennings - Good player, but the loss of Favre is going to hurt. Also might have some competition for balls with Driver,Jones,Lee,Nelson

It didn't hurt in the Dallas game. They do have chemistry together and he runs well in space.

Give a team an entire off season to prepare, watch all his tape, look at his tendencies, identify his strengths and weaknesses and you're looking at a completely different scenario IMO. He played fine but I wouldn't take much at all from that half where Dallas was in a prevent defense.

lots of tendencies are shown in 1 half...

I'm not sure what's so funny. That cowboys were leading by nearly 20 points at home and a QB that hasn't missed a game in more than a decade goes out with an injury and a guy that has a few snaps of NFL experience gets thrown onto the field and you think that the Cowboys had plenty of time to watch film on him and gameplan their defense according to those strength's and weakness's? ok. I wonder why teams spend the entire week gameplanning for an opponent when they only need about 30 minutes at half time.

 

[Ned]

Greg Jennings - Good player, but the loss of Favre is going to hurt. Also might have some competition for balls with Driver,Jones,Lee,Nelson

It didn't hurt in the Dallas game. They do have chemistry together and he runs well in space.

Give a team an entire off season to prepare, watch all his tape, look at his tendencies, identify his strengths and weaknesses and you're looking at a completely different scenario IMO. He played fine but I wouldn't take much at all from that half where Dallas was in a prevent defense.

lots of tendencies are shown in 1 half...

I'm not sure what's so funny. That cowboys were leading by nearly 20 points at home and a QB that hasn't missed a game in more than a decade goes out with an injury and a guy that has a few snaps of NFL experience gets thrown onto the field and you think that the Cowboys had plenty of time to watch film on him and gameplan their defense according to those strength's and weakness's? ok. I wonder why teams spend the entire week gameplanning for an opponent when they only need about 30 minutes at half time.

i read it as you saying teams using that 30 minutes of tape in the dallas game to game plan for rogers. my bad.

 

[FUBAR]

Top 5 on my draft list, in mini-tiers :

1. Colston - proven, a top QB, good offense, what's not to like?Top 10 WR overall IMO, not quite top 5 though

10-20 WR overall

2. Holmes - I love big play guys with great QBs, drop a little in PPR as I don't think he'll be a dominant sure-hands-guy, but he's for real

3. Marshall - he won't slide this far, in an actual draft if I'm trying to get him and Holmes, I'd take him first because Holmes would slide more

20s WR, will almost certainly go before I'd draft them

4. Calvin Johnson - another guy who will go before I'd draft him, I love his talent, dislike the situation and don't see it improving in 2-3 years

5. Bowe - see above, only slightly less talent, he might actually fall to where I'd draft him

 

[FUBAR]

Top 5 on my draft list, in mini-tiers :

1. Colston - proven, a top QB, good offense, what's not to like?Top 10 WR overall IMO, not quite top 5 though

10-20 WR overall

2. Holmes - I love big play guys with great QBs, drop a little in PPR as I don't think he'll be a dominant sure-hands-guy, but he's for real

3. Marshall - he won't slide this far, in an actual draft if I'm trying to get him and Holmes, I'd take him first because Holmes would slide more

20s WR, will almost certainly go before I'd draft them

4. Calvin Johnson - another guy who will go before I'd draft him, I love his talent, dislike the situation and don't see it improving in 2-3 years

5. Bowe - see above, only slightly less talent, he might actually fall to where I'd draft him

 

[Kleck]

Jacoby Jones - Preseason favorite vanished during the regular season. Has the talent to emerge down the road.

Jacoby had a great preseason, and entered the year as the #3 WR IIRC. He was named the started prior to week 3, but separated his shoulder that game that knocked him out a few weeks. I haven't seen much info on why he may have been so quiet the 2nd half of the season, but I do like him as a cheap, under-the-radar, value guy.