2nd Round Redraft - Year of the WR? (1 Viewer)

[joey]

(talking 12 team redraft, no ppr)

After the first 11 or 12 RBs (the FBG consensus rankings

are fine enough to lay out that group), it's looking like the

next 10-15 RBs are a freakin' toss up.

Last year, conventional wisdom (IMHO) was that the first 4 or

5 picks should go RB, WR, RB, grabbing one of the "sure thing"

WRs in the 2nd round.

I'm thinking that this year, more than ever, the ENTIRE 2nd round

is all about the WRs and then grab whichever RB remains in the 3rd.

1st round: LJ, LT2, SA, Portis, Tiki, Lamont, SJackson, Rudi, Edge, RBrown, Caddy, Westbrook

2nd round: SSmith, CJ, Holt, TO, Fitz, Moss, Harrison, Boldin, DJackson...that's 8 WRs.

Throw in Manning and that leaves 3 slots for RBs like DDavis, McGahee, Willie Parker.

Ok, so maybe the entire 2nd round shouldn't be all WRs but I'm thinking with the

remaining RBs, I'd rather grab a top WR or Manning in the 2nd and take my chances

on my 2nd RB in the 3rd round.

thoughts?

 

[The Jerk]

(talking 12 team redraft, no ppr)

After the first 11 or 12 RBs (the FBG consensus rankings

are fine enough to lay out that group), it's looking like the

next 10-15 RBs are a freakin' toss up.

Last year, conventional wisdom (IMHO) was that the first 4 or

5 picks should go RB, WR, RB, grabbing one of the "sure thing"

WRs in the 2nd round.

I'm thinking that this year, more than ever, the ENTIRE 2nd round

is all about the WRs and then grab whichever RB remains in the 3rd.

1st round: LJ, LT2, SA, Portis, Tiki, Lamont, SJackson, Rudi, Edge, RBrown, Caddy, Westbrook

2nd round: SSmith, CJ, Holt, TO, Fitz, Moss, Harrison, Boldin, DJackson...that's 8 WRs.

Throw in Manning and that leaves 3 slots for RBs like DDavis, McGahee, Willie Parker.

Ok, so maybe the entire 2nd round shouldn't be all WRs but I'm thinking with the

remaining RBs, I'd rather grab a top WR or Manning in the 2nd and take my chances

on my 2nd RB in the 3rd round.

thoughts?

What often gets lost in the positional breakdowns that occur for the top picks is avoiding a bust. People need to remember that just drafting a RB (or WR) early doesn't make them play like a true RB1 or WR1. Just look at last year.This is the FBG Top 300 sorted from August 31, 2005.

Rank ADP Diff Pos # Player Team/Bye 1 1 0 RB 1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD/10 2 2 0 RB 2 Shaun Alexander Sea/8 3 3 0 RB 3 Priest Holmes KC/5 4 4 0 RB 4 Edgerrin James Ind/8 5 7 2 RB 5 Deuce McAllister NO/10 6 6 0 RB 6 Willis McGahee Buf/9 7 8 1 RB 7 Domanick Davis Hou/3 8 5 -3 QB 1 Peyton Manning Ind/8 9 13 4 WR 1 Randy Moss Oak/5 10 12 2 RB 8 Kevin Jones Det/3 11 15 4 RB 9 Julius Jones Dal/9 12 17 5 RB 10 Tiki Barber NYG/5 13 9 -4 RB 11 Clinton Portis Was/3 14 11 -3 RB 12 Corey Dillon NE/7 15 14 -1 QB 2 Daunte Culpepper Min/5 16 24 8 RB 13 Steven Jackson StL/9 17 21 4 RB 14 Brian Westbrook Phi/6 18 18 0 RB 15 Rudi Johnson Cin/10 19 19 0 WR 2 Torry Holt StL/9 20 16 -4 RB 16 Ahman Green GB/6 21 23 2 WR 3 Marvin Harrison Ind/8 22 10 -12 RB 17 Jamal Lewis Bal/3 23 25 2 WR 4 Chad Johnson Cin/10 24 20 -4 RB 18 Curtis Martin NYJ/8 25 22 -3 WR 5 Terrell Owens Phi/6 26 29 3 WR 6 Joe Horn NO/10Out of this list, I'd consider Holmes, McAllister, McGahee, Jones x 2, Dillon, Westbrook, Green, Lewis and Martin all varying degrees of bust. That's five bust RBs in each of the first two rounds!I understand that if avoiding busts was easy, we'd all do it; but I'd rather have a more secure WR pick than take a RB that I think has a high risk of busting because that's what sharks supposedly do. The problem with this approach is that WRs can bust, too. (Moss, Owens, Horn from above).

The adage that you cannot win your league in the first 2-3 rounds but you can lose it was true to many who drafted off the bust list above. I think the application of this strategy is to not have tunnel vision on RBs late in the first round and to draft for depth at RB throughout the draft.

You can focus on a "RB relay" strategy LINK hoping to pick two teammates in a later round for one of your RBs, or you can take several 4th-8th round fliers hoping to hit one. If you draft one RB and two WRs early but they all perform to their draft position, you'll likely be better off than if you force yourself to draft 2 RBs early but one of them busts.

As always, it comes down more to draft good players than draft by position only.

 

[joffer]

(talking 12 team redraft, no ppr)

After the first 11 or 12 RBs (the FBG consensus rankings

are fine enough to lay out that group), it's looking like the

next 10-15 RBs are a freakin' toss up.

Last year, conventional wisdom (IMHO) was that the first 4 or

5 picks should go RB, WR, RB, grabbing one of the "sure thing"

WRs in the 2nd round.

I'm thinking that this year, more than ever, the ENTIRE 2nd round

is all about the WRs and then grab whichever RB remains in the 3rd.

1st round: LJ, LT2, SA, Portis, Tiki, Lamont, SJackson, Rudi, Edge, RBrown, Caddy, Westbrook

2nd round: SSmith, CJ, Holt, TO, Fitz, Moss, Harrison, Boldin, DJackson...that's 8 WRs.

Throw in Manning and that leaves 3 slots for RBs like DDavis, McGahee, Willie Parker.

Ok, so maybe the entire 2nd round shouldn't be all WRs but I'm thinking with the

remaining RBs, I'd rather grab a top WR or Manning in the 2nd and take my chances

on my 2nd RB in the 3rd round.

thoughts?

This appears to be inline with the the mocks I've seen and done over at xperts.com. There seems to be a consensus of 14 RBs that go off the board first (the ones you mention above minus FWP), followed by a "big 8" at WR (again, the ones you mention above minus DJ), and then the 2nd tier RBs follow that.

This trend may stay all the way through the preseason, but I have a feeling as we get through training camps and more RB situations become clearer, that you'll see more RBs creep into the 2nd round. Guys like Fitz and Harrison definitely seem safer at this point in the offseason than Droughns, KJ, JJ, Chester, etc., but come draft day, the fear of having a weak RB2 seems to take over.

 

[joey]

(talking 12 team redraft, no ppr)

After the first 11 or 12 RBs (the FBG consensus rankings

are fine enough to lay out that group), it's looking like the

next 10-15 RBs are a freakin' toss up.

Last year, conventional wisdom (IMHO) was that the first 4 or

5 picks should go RB, WR, RB, grabbing one of the "sure thing"

WRs in the 2nd round.

I'm thinking that this year, more than ever, the ENTIRE 2nd round

is all about the WRs and then grab whichever RB remains in the 3rd.

1st round: LJ, LT2, SA, Portis, Tiki, Lamont, SJackson, Rudi, Edge, RBrown, Caddy, Westbrook

2nd round: SSmith, CJ, Holt, TO, Fitz, Moss, Harrison, Boldin, DJackson...that's 8 WRs.

Throw in Manning and that leaves 3 slots for RBs like DDavis, McGahee, Willie Parker.

Ok, so maybe the entire 2nd round shouldn't be all WRs but I'm thinking with the

remaining RBs, I'd rather grab a top WR or Manning in the 2nd and take my chances

on my 2nd RB in the 3rd round.

thoughts?

This appears to be inline with the the mocks I've seen and done over at xperts.com. There seems to be a consensus of 14 RBs that go off the board first (the ones you mention above minus FWP), followed by a "big 8" at WR (again, the ones you mention above minus DJ), and then the 2nd tier RBs follow that.

This trend may stay all the way through the preseason, but I have a feeling as we get through training camps and more RB situations become clearer, that you'll see more RBs creep into the 2nd round. Guys like Fitz and Harrison definitely seem safer at this point in the offseason than Droughns, KJ, JJ, Chester, etc., but come draft day, the fear of having a weak RB2 seems to take over.

I agree. I'm sure the pre-season will bump some of the RB2's up notch.Will JJ get the bulk of the carries?

Will KJ show some promise in the new Martz system?

Will Droughns score more TDs in the preseason than he did all of last year?

Will Chester show he's more than a 3rd down back?

Will Jamal Lewis show any spark whatsoever?

Who will be the starting RB in NO, Chi, IND and DEN?

That's alot of questions to answer and I'm reasonably sure the preseason

ain't gonna answer them all.

I'll take my chances with more of a "sure thing" WR than one of those RBs

in the 2nd round this year.

 

[Bankerguy]

I would like to have 2 of the Top 12 WR's this year. I think the RB and QB positions are pretty deep this year. Just my 0.02.

 

[There it is]

(talking 12 team redraft, no ppr)

After the first 11 or 12 RBs (the FBG consensus rankings

are fine enough to lay out that group), it's looking like the

next 10-15 RBs are a freakin' toss up.

Last year, conventional wisdom (IMHO) was that the first 4 or

5 picks should go RB, WR, RB, grabbing one of the "sure thing"

WRs in the 2nd round.

I'm thinking that this year, more than ever, the ENTIRE 2nd round

is all about the WRs and then grab whichever RB remains in the 3rd.

1st round: LJ, LT2, SA, Portis, Tiki, Lamont, SJackson, Rudi, Edge, RBrown, Caddy, Westbrook

2nd round: SSmith, CJ, Holt, TO, Fitz, Moss, Harrison, Boldin, DJackson...that's 8 WRs.

Throw in Manning and that leaves 3 slots for RBs like DDavis, McGahee, Willie Parker.

Ok, so maybe the entire 2nd round shouldn't be all WRs but I'm thinking with the

remaining RBs, I'd rather grab a top WR or Manning in the 2nd and take my chances

on my 2nd RB in the 3rd round.

thoughts?

What often gets lost in the positional breakdowns that occur for the top picks is avoiding a bust. People need to remember that just drafting a RB (or WR) early doesn't make them play like a true RB1 or WR1. Just look at last year.This is the FBG Top 300 sorted from August 31, 2005.

Rank ADP Diff Pos # Player Team/Bye 1 1 0 RB 1 LaDainian Tomlinson SD/10 2 2 0 RB 2 Shaun Alexander Sea/8 3 3 0 RB 3 Priest Holmes KC/5 ...........B4 4 0 RB 4 Edgerrin James Ind/8 5 7 2 RB 5 Deuce McAllister NO/10 ......B6 6 0 RB 6 Willis McGahee Buf/9 ..........B7 8 1 RB 7 Domanick Davis Hou/3 8 5 -3 QB 1 Peyton Manning Ind/8 9 13 4 WR 1 Randy Moss Oak/5 ...............B10 12 2 RB 8 Kevin Jones Det/3 ...............B11 15 4 RB 9 Julius Jones Dal/9 ...............,B12 17 5 RB 10 Tiki Barber NYG/5 13 9 -4 RB 11 Clinton Portis Was/3 14 11 -3 RB 12 Corey Dillon NE/7 ...............B15 14 -1 QB 2 Daunte Culpepper Min/5 16 24 8 RB 13 Steven Jackson StL/9 17 21 4 RB 14 Brian Westbrook Phi/6 ..........B18 18 0 RB 15 Rudi Johnson Cin/10 19 19 0 WR 2 Torry Holt StL/9 20 16 -4 RB 16 Ahman Green GB/6 ..............B21 23 2 WR 3 Marvin Harrison Ind/8 22 10 -12 RB 17 Jamal Lewis Bal/3.................B 23 25 2 WR 4 Chad Johnson Cin/10 24 20 -4 RB 18 Curtis Martin NYJ/8 .................B25 22 -3 WR 5 Terrell Owens Phi/6 ..................B26 29 3 WR 6 Joe Horn NO/10 ........................BOut of this list, I'd consider Holmes, McAllister, McGahee, Jones x 2, Dillon, Westbrook, Green, Lewis and Martin all varying degrees of bust. That's five bust RBs in each of the first two rounds!I understand that if avoiding busts was easy, we'd all do it; but I'd rather have a more secure WR pick than take a RB that I think has a high risk of busting because that's what sharks supposedly do. The problem with this approach is that WRs can bust, too. (Moss, Owens, Horn from above).

The adage that you cannot win your league in the first 2-3 rounds but you can lose it was true to many who drafted off the bust list above. I think the application of this strategy is to not have tunnel vision on RBs late in the first round and to draft for depth at RB throughout the draft.

You can focus on a "RB relay" strategy LINK hoping to pick two teammates in a later round for one of your RBs, or you can take several 4th-8th round fliers hoping to hit one. If you draft one RB and two WRs early but they all perform to their draft position, you'll likely be better off than if you force yourself to draft 2 RBs early but one of them busts.

As always, it comes down more to draft good players than draft by position only.

Great work by all you posters.I love this list. It should serve notice to the draft off the sheet mentality.

I was in that great thread you linked to. Great, great thread, it opens your eyes to the reality that is this years RB crop. I will definetly use the strategy of drafting a teams RBs, instead of taking a chance at a bust.

Once again well put by you guys. This allows for creativity in rnds 2-3-4,WR,TEor QB.

 

[MLBrandow]

Out of this list, I'd consider Holmes, McAllister, McGahee, Jones x 2, Dillon, Westbrook, Green, Lewis and Martin all varying degrees of bust. That's five bust RBs in each of the first two rounds!

1. Larry Johnson RB KCC 1.01.21 1.01 1.02 00.41 43 2. Shaun Alexander RB SEA 1.02.40 1.01 1.03 00.73 42

3. LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC 1.02.44 1.01 1.04 00.70 43

4. Clinton Portis RB WAS 1.04.48 1.03 1.07 00.74 42

5. Tiki Barber RB NYG 1.05.15 1.04 1.08 00.94 41

6. Steven Jackson RB STL 1.06.83 1.04 1.09 01.41 41

7. Edgerrin James RB ARI 1.07.07 1.04 1.10 01.18 42

8. LaMont Jordan RB OAK 1.08.16 1.05 2.02 02.02 43

9. Ronnie Brown RB MIA 1.09.40 1.04 2.01 01.75 42

10. Rudi Johnson RB CIN 1.10.56 1.05 2.03 02.21 41

11. Carnell Williams RB TBB 1.11.17 1.07 2.05 02.38 41

12. Steve Smith WR CAR 2.01.59 1.09 2.07 02.58 41

13. Domanick Davis RB HOU 2.02.86 1.10 2.10 02.70 42

14. Brian Westbrook RB PHI 2.03.23 1.10 2.12 03.72 40

15. Terrell Owens WR DAL 2.03.63 1.09 2.11 03.06 40

16. Peyton Manning QB IND 2.04.40 1.06 3.01 05.60 43

17. Chad Johnson WR CIN 2.04.86 1.11 2.10 02.42 42

18. Willis McGahee RB BUF 2.06.03 1.11 3.07 03.96 39

19. Torry Holt WR STL 2.06.71 2.01 3.02 02.96 42

20. Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 2.08.26 2.01 3.01 03.16 42

21. Julius Jones RB DAL 2.09.13 2.01 3.08 04.44 40

22. Randy Moss WR OAK 2.10.72 2.04 3.04 02.91 43

23. Marvin Harrison WR IND 2.11.30 2.05 3.06 03.20 43

24. Kevin Jones RB DET 2.12.00 2.03 3.08 04.37 42

What's your point? There's five in there this year, too.

 

[The Jerk]

Out of this list, I'd consider Holmes, McAllister, McGahee, Jones x 2, Dillon, Westbrook, Green, Lewis and Martin all varying degrees of bust. That's five bust RBs in each of the first two rounds!

1. Larry Johnson RB KCC 1.01.21 1.01 1.02 00.41 43 2. Shaun Alexander RB SEA 1.02.40 1.01 1.03 00.73 42

3. LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC 1.02.44 1.01 1.04 00.70 43

4. Clinton Portis RB WAS 1.04.48 1.03 1.07 00.74 42

5. Tiki Barber RB NYG 1.05.15 1.04 1.08 00.94 41

6. Steven Jackson RB STL 1.06.83 1.04 1.09 01.41 41

7. Edgerrin James RB ARI 1.07.07 1.04 1.10 01.18 42

8. LaMont Jordan RB OAK 1.08.16 1.05 2.02 02.02 43

9. Ronnie Brown RB MIA 1.09.40 1.04 2.01 01.75 42

10. Rudi Johnson RB CIN 1.10.56 1.05 2.03 02.21 41

11. Carnell Williams RB TBB 1.11.17 1.07 2.05 02.38 41

12. Steve Smith WR CAR 2.01.59 1.09 2.07 02.58 41

13. Domanick Davis RB HOU 2.02.86 1.10 2.10 02.70 42

14. Brian Westbrook RB PHI 2.03.23 1.10 2.12 03.72 40

15. Terrell Owens WR DAL 2.03.63 1.09 2.11 03.06 40

16. Peyton Manning QB IND 2.04.40 1.06 3.01 05.60 43

17. Chad Johnson WR CIN 2.04.86 1.11 2.10 02.42 42

18. Willis McGahee RB BUF 2.06.03 1.11 3.07 03.96 39

19. Torry Holt WR STL 2.06.71 2.01 3.02 02.96 42

20. Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 2.08.26 2.01 3.01 03.16 42

21. Julius Jones RB DAL 2.09.13 2.01 3.08 04.44 40

22. Randy Moss WR OAK 2.10.72 2.04 3.04 02.91 43

23. Marvin Harrison WR IND 2.11.30 2.05 3.06 03.20 43

24. Kevin Jones RB DET 2.12.00 2.03 3.08 04.37 42

What's your point? There's five in there this year, too.

I'm not sure where you're going here, MLB.First, it appears that you did not recognize that there were five busts in EACH of the first two rounds at RB in 2005, for a total of 10 busts out of the 18 RBs projected as top 24 picks. So right away I'm confused when you say there's five in there again (in 2006) when I already listed ten from last year.

Second, my point was already stated in the rest of my post, and even more succinctly put by There it is, who agrees with my opinion that there are many more options available in the early rounds other than forcing a second running back selection to occur.

Third, in case it was not clear from the rest of my post, I'm more concerned with avoiding busts than I am with forcing myself to draft a specific position in the early rounds of a draft.

My overall theme is that there are many ways to obtain a good team at the draft. One of the cornerstones of my draft preparation is my contingency plans for dealing with whatever position I end up drafting later than the ideal time. I do it for RB, WR, QB and TE alike. Specifically, if you're planning on drafting only one RB early, then you better have a good fallback position like the "RB relay" mentioned earlier in the thread.

If you're one of those diehard "RB-RB" or "2 RBs in first 3 rounds" people, then probably nothing I will write will change your mind. That's OK by me. I'm just hoping to help people who are looking at re-tooling their strategy by giving them some approaches to think about using this year.

If I'm just missing your point or you're just messing with me, that's fine, too. I'm just trying to be helpful.

 

[barndog]

I understand that if avoiding busts was easy, we'd all do it; but I'd rather have a more secure WR pick than take a RB that I think has a high risk of busting because that's what sharks supposedly do. The problem with this approach is that WRs can bust, too. (Moss, Owens, Horn from above).

Amen, says someone who drafted S Smith early two seasons ago (and also had Charles Rogers and his brittle collar bone), and Javon Walker last year. Season-ending injuries in game 1 seem to happen with some regularity to top ten WRs.Beee-zarOf course, they're probably completely unpredictable.

 

[ImTheScientist]

After the Top 8 or Top 9 RB's the next 5 or 6 all seem similar. If I get pick 9 or pick ten Im going with the #1 WR on my board and getting a RB on the way back.

 

[MLBrandow]

Nope, I clearly misread your post.

I think to bettter analyze your data though you should do a little standard deviation.

Sure LT goes #1 every year even though he's not been the #1 fantasy back but once.

But he has been like solid top-3 year in and year out, which is why he went #1 so often.

See where I'm going?

Surely there's real value in knowing how much people miss every year, but also risk assessment is an important factor. Peyton finished 3 or 4 instead of 1. That's not bad considering that was his floor, and his ceiling was far and away #1 again.

I may not be making complete sense, but I at least think I am following you now, unless I'm just not capable of understanding your post. That would make me sad though.

 

[joey]

After the Top 8 or Top 9 RB's the next 5 or 6 all seem similar. If I get pick 9 or pick ten Im going with the #1 WR on my board and getting a RB on the way back.

An excellent reason to break your rankings into basic tiers, especially whenyou draft near either end of the draft. If I felt the same way about the similar

values of RBs 10 thru 15 and was sitting at the #10 spot, I'd go with a WR

in 1 also and grab who's ever left at RB in the 2nd round.

Of course, I *don't* feel that any WR is worth more than the top 12 RBs

this year, so I won't be following your statgey

(I'd take any of the top 12 RBs in the FBG redraft rankings over a WR

but that's probably just the residual RB Stud smoke wafting around my

room)