2nd year starter QBs and their offenses improve (1 Viewer)

[PahtyTom]

According to Steve Aldersley's new freelance article (excellent btw), recent history will tell us that about 65% of starting QBs improve on an average of 2.33 fantasy points per game in their 2nd season as a starting QB as opposed to their first. It may not seem like a lot, but over the course of the year it adds up and would actually propel a QB about 10 ranks higher. Out of the 4 2nd year starters in the league this year, who do you see improving? One could make cases for all 4.

Simms looked the most polished last year, and has gotten glowing reports from TC this year. He also has good weapons around him. On the negative side, he has a brutal schedule.

Alex Smith has appeared to make great strides if early results from preseason are any indication. He has a good offensive mind in Norv Turner as his OC now, along with an upgraded supporting cast with Antionio Bryant, Vernon Davis, a healthy OL and a healthy Eric Johnson in the fold now.

Charlie Frye seemed to have the makings of a future quality nfl starter last year. He made some rookie mistakes, but also completed a high % of his passes and showed poise during key moments. His supporting cast seems to be at about the same level as last year, as Winslow comes back but Edwards is a question mark.

Losman probably caught the most heat of all the 1st year starters last year as a result of his poor performance and the high expectations that many had for the Bills at the beginning of the year. Right now, he's winning the fight for the starting job this year. His supporting cast is decent and fits the skill set he brings to the table well. Losman throws a good deep ball and can buy time with his speed, so Lee Evans can help him out a lot again this year. It still remains to be seen what kind of adjustments Losman will make in his 2nd year though.

Also, any improvements by these quarterbacks could positively effect undervalued fantasy players around them such as Antonio Bryant, Dennis Northcutt, and Lee Evans. Who do you see progressing?

 

[Musesboy]

First of all, thanks for the props

I think it is safe to say that each of the four will improve to some extent.

Simms - He started two games in 2004 and would have learned something from that experience, so it could be argued that last year was his second year as the starter. But with only 12 starts to his credit, I would imagine that he has considerable improvement left in him. With Clayton reportedly back from injury, and Alex Smith rumored to be more involved in the offense, I think that he has a chance to move into the top 15. The main thing that limits him is the success of the running game and the defense. It's similar to Ben Roethlisberger's situation. It was encouraging to see him post more TDs than INTs, and he gained over 2000 passing yards in 10 starts, so any further improvement would make him a viable backup.

Smith - He can only improve after last year. 1 TD vs. 11 INTs was terrible and his YPA was only 5.30. But improvement can be rapid as Eli Manning showed. Antonio Bryant should help the situation, and Vernon Davis will be another good target. The signs are encouraging after his 16-21/137 performance against the Bears last week. He may not be draftable in 12 team leagues yet though.

Frye - He will need to be good to overcome the poor offensive line play. With his targets banged up, inexperienced, or both, I think his progress will take longer than the two mentioned above.

Losman - I am very high on him as you can see from the comments I made in his Player Spotlight. He has to take care of the ball better, but I think he is starting to believe in himself. His whole attitude seems different and he understands that he has to work in order to succeed. The last preseason game saw him turn the ball over three times (two were fumbles), but I was encouraged to see the rapport he shares with Lee Evans. In a half of football, he posted 7/11/134 with a 46 yard TD. Evans is a big threat every time he touches the ball. Although the Bills do have a pretty good defense, I expect them to trail a lot this season. I really think Losman could surprise. His scrambling ability is a big bonus too.

Again, thanks for the comments. I am glad you enjoyed the article

Steve