I’m gonna write a long write up for this game. I don’t expect anybody to slog thru it, but tl;dr is: this is gonna be a tight, tight game that the Eagles pull out.
TBB: 23
PHI: 24
This game is another bare-knuckle fight, and the outcome is a coin flip. It’s gonna be a close game up until the end. Injuries are piling up on both teams at key positions. And the weather, with an on-field temperature of around 100 degrees, is going to effect both teams.
Philly on Offense:
They desperately want to run the ball as effectively as they were last year. The run game has been anemic this year, so far. A lot of factors have contributed: play calling has been too predictable, Saquon has been pressing, and biggest factor- the Oline has struggled early. Landon and Jurgens have not looked good the first couple of weeks. Landon is clearly fighting thru a bunch of injuries, and Jurgens looks pedestrian. Steen has been solid, but he’s a drop-off from the man mountain that Becton was last year. Mailata has had some gaffes and even Lane doesn’t look like Lane.
Tampa’s D has some key injuries, but they are playing stonewall run D. Losing Kancey was a big blow. Logan Hall being Questionable is another big blow. Vita Vea is a run-stuffing beast, but can he hold up for 60-65 plays in 100 degree heat?
It’ll be interesting to see what Patullo dials up- do you run up the middle to try and wear down a thin Dline? Or do you run pulls outside and let Jurgens play to his strength on the 2nd level against a swarming LB corps? If they get stubborn and try to run heavy 12 and 13 personnel with condensed formations, they will get destroyed.
What the Eagles should’ve learned from the 2nd Half last week is that passing the ball makes the D respect the run. Bowles has given Jalen fits- closing down running lanes for him and making him eat sacks with exotic blitzes and great lane integrity.
Philly has AJ, Devonta and Goedert all healthy this week. Their bread-and-butter seam routes won’t be easy against Tampa’s zone. They have to attack the middle of the field with mesh routes and crossers, and give Jalen easy hot reads that don’t take 5 seconds to develop. Jalen has got to be bursting at the seams to shake the monkey off his back and decisively beat Bowles. Fantasy-wise, Devonta has a big game. Jalen has about 200 passing with 1 TD, 35 rushing with 1 tush push. Saquon cracks 100 yds, just barely and gets a TD.
TBB on Offense:
Wirfs coming back and playing meaningful snaps could be huge. LT,LG and C all upgrade significantly. That Right side is still a mess. Whoever rolls out at RG plus Charlie Heck at RT are where the Eagles will attack. Bucky Irving hasn’t been great behind this Oline, but Philly’s rush D has been weak. Missing Evans and Godwin in his first week back, look for Tampa to lean on the run game. Irving gets 120 and a TD.
Baker is a winner. He will find a way to beat you. If you don’t get pressure on him, he will find an open guy and pick up a 1st down. And he has underrated legs. Losing Nolan Smith is a huge loss for Philly. He anchors the run better than anyone on the EDGE, and he is the best pass rusher. They’re gonna have to replace him with a healthy dose of Za’Darius Smith and Uche. They’re gonna have to rely on Okoronkwo and Ojulare coming in and doing something/anything. With the heat, on top of it, I fear the line won’t be able to generate enough pressure to keep Baker from matriculating downfield. Look for a lot more blitzes than usual from Campbell/Baun/Mukuba/DeJean.
Evans out is probably the biggest factor for Tampa- if he was playing, I’d flip my prediction, and call a TBB win. Egbuka is a great player early. I think Godwin will be limited and is gonna be more of a decoy than a major factor.
The young OC will make it easier on Philly’s secondary if they run out a static X, whether it’s Miller or Shepard. CB2 is gonna be a problem for Philly, and is the glaring “easy button” that Baker is going to be looking for all game. I could definitely see Shepard having a big fantasy game this week 6/90/1.