SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I have some concerns about Bell but his upside isn't one of them. In PPR, he's finished top 4 on a PPG basis for the past 4 years. I mean, last year he scored more PPG than a dude who actually scored 20 TDs.
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3 must haves... 3 must avoids (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter bulger2holt
- Start date
Chaka
Footballguy
Depends on your league scoring I guess. But the over-usage plus the limited TD upside are points of concern for me at his ADP. His 16 game pace is 386 touches, that just doesn't seem sustainable (and it hasn't been in three of four seasons).
There is also the Big Ben durability issue as he is almost guaranteed to miss games and the offense typically struggles mightily without him in the lineup.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I agree with all of this. Not a Seahawks fan. Lacy is undervalued. Prosise also can't pass protect and has been called out in the past for his work ethic/attitude. I think Prosise is on a bust trend, other than he may still find a role as a 3rd down guy that flashes here and there. FF community doesn't seem to see it that way, plus everyone thinks Lacy is a bust. Rawls is the piece of this that is harder for me to figure out. I have a feeling both will be very productive and efficient, but from one week to the next it will be hard to know who to start. Lacy probably gets the edge due to likely goal line carries.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
He will be inconsistent and he is at best the 3rd or 4th option on that team. I don't want 3rd or 4th options in the start of the 2nd round. If he was going in the 6th round I'd take him. People are way undervaluing Edleman and overvaluing Cooks.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I'm sure you've broken down the target distribution in another thread but how many targets do you see Cooks getting this year?
Chaka
Footballguy
I have trouble buying the premise that the Pats traded a #1 pick for a 3rd or 4th WR.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Okay, I do as well. But I don't see him having the TD upside to propel him into top 3-5. I feel like drafting him as a low-end WR1 is drafting him at his ceiling.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
At this point, I see Cooks having a floor of 80-1200-8 (which like last year is WR10 territory). I have spelled this out in a lot of other threads, so don't really feel like repeating myself here again. If Gronk or Edelman miss time (not exactly a stretch to think that will happen), IMO he could see 100-1500-10 (which is WR Top 3 territory).
Cooks was brought in to be at the top of the receiving food chain . . . not just as an add on piece to what they already have.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I feel like TD upside is perhaps his biggest asset. Brady is going to flirt with 50 TDs this year. Cooks will be a big part of that.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
What do you see from Edleman, Gronk, and the RBs on that team?
I don't think Cooks will be ahead of Gronk or Edleman on the food chain. So if by the 3rd option (at best) you mean top...then ya.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, Cooks will be a greater option on many routes as he will be further downfield. IMO, Cooks / Edelman / Gronk drive the vertical game. Then there is everybody else. Edelman and RB's took up slack with no Gronk last year. I doubt they use the RB's out of the backfield quite as much as last year if Cooks / Edelman / Gronk are all healthy.
Granted, it's not real football yet, but Cooks has been unstoppable so far. At worst, he is an equal to Gronk and Jules.
Mavis
Footballguy
He already is ahead of Edelman, Mike Reiss says he has been running as the #1 WR in all formations. Even with one WR on the field.ImTheScientist said:
Not only is he ahead of Edelman, but he is going to be a pint size version of Moss in the way they use him. I'm calling at least 5 deep bombs for TDs alone.
Let Cooks hit the gas run a streak while the safety underneath has to cover Gronk and Edelman, good luck with that.
Its cool you dont think Cooks will be ahead of Edelman, but the fact is he already is. (If Reiss, the person who watches every practice is to be believed)
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Hartliner
Footballguy
Must Have:
Ameer Abdullah - Price to acquire is cheap. I believe him to be a RB2 with low end RB1 upside in ppr. Maybe not a big TD guy but at Rd6-5 its a cost efficient player that has a high floor.
Danny Woodhead - Reasonable price to acquire now that peeps are scared from hammy, he is a vet and will get back to form without preseason. he's old but he has relatively lower miles than a lot of RBs. What else are the Ravens going to do?
Demaryious Thomas - He goes later than he should. Usually my 2nd WR. High Floor guy and helps stablize the position as I take shots on the crowder, snead, diggs tier in the mid rounds.
Avoid:
Jordan Reed - I think the inevitability of injury at the TE position is enough to warrant the avoid. I'm pretty hardcore about having a lot of RBs and WRs only. I don't want to have to carry 2 TE's all season.
All of the NE RBs - Roulette can be won later if someone breaks out , because with 5 competent backs I'm sure all who drafted them will prolly end up dropping them in favor of bye week. God bless ya if you throw in with Gilly
All of the SEA RBs - Less desirable Roulette, there's 4 RBs competent to take the job but unlike the Patriots I believe the ceiling here is lower. Worst o-line in the league is possibility
Ameer Abdullah - Price to acquire is cheap. I believe him to be a RB2 with low end RB1 upside in ppr. Maybe not a big TD guy but at Rd6-5 its a cost efficient player that has a high floor.
Danny Woodhead - Reasonable price to acquire now that peeps are scared from hammy, he is a vet and will get back to form without preseason. he's old but he has relatively lower miles than a lot of RBs. What else are the Ravens going to do?
Demaryious Thomas - He goes later than he should. Usually my 2nd WR. High Floor guy and helps stablize the position as I take shots on the crowder, snead, diggs tier in the mid rounds.
Avoid:
Jordan Reed - I think the inevitability of injury at the TE position is enough to warrant the avoid. I'm pretty hardcore about having a lot of RBs and WRs only. I don't want to have to carry 2 TE's all season.
All of the NE RBs - Roulette can be won later if someone breaks out , because with 5 competent backs I'm sure all who drafted them will prolly end up dropping them in favor of bye week. God bless ya if you throw in with Gilly
All of the SEA RBs - Less desirable Roulette, there's 4 RBs competent to take the job but unlike the Patriots I believe the ceiling here is lower. Worst o-line in the league is possibility
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Must:
1) Cobb - slot receiver for the best QB in the game is going in the 9th round ??? He's been dinged up the past couple years but by the 6th or 7th he's easily worth the risk.
2) Crowell - 2nd best O-line in the league with an ascending defense. They should be able to control the clock and pound the rock this year and he's the bellcow. His ADP is creeping up but if I can get him mid-3rd I'm happy.
3) Ware - Mid-4th for a talented bellcow on a decent team? I'm not buying that a 3rd round pick is going to come in and steal touches from him day 1.
Avoid:
1) D. Thomas - ~1000/4 last year and what's changed? I don't get the 2nd/3rd round love. He basically performed the same as Allen Robinson, doesn't have much of a better QB situation, and is being drafted 3 full rounds higher. I don't get it.
2) Joe Mixon - Bengals are projected to be one of the worst (31st) performing o-lines in the league this year. They lost two pro-bowlers and are starting two rookies that have both been terrible. Add in the fact that there is no shortage of talented fantasy players siphoning touches (Green, Eifert, Ross, Boyd, Gio, Hill) ... why exactly is he being taken in the 3rd round??? Ahead of Ware who already has the job locked up and better o-line??? Don't get it.
3) Lamar Miller - 29th best o-line, crappy QB... He had exactly 3 games over 15 fantasy points last year and what's changed?
1) Cobb - slot receiver for the best QB in the game is going in the 9th round ??? He's been dinged up the past couple years but by the 6th or 7th he's easily worth the risk.
2) Crowell - 2nd best O-line in the league with an ascending defense. They should be able to control the clock and pound the rock this year and he's the bellcow. His ADP is creeping up but if I can get him mid-3rd I'm happy.
3) Ware - Mid-4th for a talented bellcow on a decent team? I'm not buying that a 3rd round pick is going to come in and steal touches from him day 1.
Avoid:
1) D. Thomas - ~1000/4 last year and what's changed? I don't get the 2nd/3rd round love. He basically performed the same as Allen Robinson, doesn't have much of a better QB situation, and is being drafted 3 full rounds higher. I don't get it.
2) Joe Mixon - Bengals are projected to be one of the worst (31st) performing o-lines in the league this year. They lost two pro-bowlers and are starting two rookies that have both been terrible. Add in the fact that there is no shortage of talented fantasy players siphoning touches (Green, Eifert, Ross, Boyd, Gio, Hill) ... why exactly is he being taken in the 3rd round??? Ahead of Ware who already has the job locked up and better o-line??? Don't get it.
3) Lamar Miller - 29th best o-line, crappy QB... He had exactly 3 games over 15 fantasy points last year and what's changed?
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Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Consensus favorite likes and avoid and both ways.
Likes:
1. T Pryor
2. D. Cook
3. Ty. Williams
4. D. Parker
5. Meredith, Rodgers, Abdullah, Benjamin
Dislikes:
1. L. Miller
2. M. Lynch
3. M. Thomas
4. Montgomery, Fournette, Luck, Murray, Cooks, Hopkins, Reed
Players with duel calls:
1) B. Cooks
2) K. Benjamin
3) T. Hill
4) Gronk
5. M. Bryant
Likes:
1. T Pryor
2. D. Cook
3. Ty. Williams
4. D. Parker
5. Meredith, Rodgers, Abdullah, Benjamin
Dislikes:
1. L. Miller
2. M. Lynch
3. M. Thomas
4. Montgomery, Fournette, Luck, Murray, Cooks, Hopkins, Reed
Players with duel calls:
1) B. Cooks
2) K. Benjamin
3) T. Hill
4) Gronk
5. M. Bryant
GoBirds
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Since Kizer is the starter now, I'd be worried about Crowell's RZ TD dropping enough to keep him from being a RB1. Kizer will get at least 3 or 4 short TDs this year that would go to Crowell if it was one of the other QB.Did I miss the memo that the Browns don't suck anymore?
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
We are talking about two different things as they don't play the same position in the WR group. I'm talking about targets... which is all that really matters bro. Edelman will get more targets than Cooks as will Gronk.
What does WR#1 even mean? Do you know what Reiss is referring to or are you making it mean what you want to try to win the internet?
bend the knee.
need2know
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
I felt the same way but I keep reading about McCoy being back as offensive coordinator and how he loves WR screens and DThomas performed great with McCoy and these screen plays last time. But I don't follow Denver (I only despise them as a Raiders fan ) so can't say how true that assessment is. I just know I've read it more than once on this board, so it must be true
Pats run a complex offense - Cooks could be great over the next 4-5 years but struggle the first half of the season to adapt. Brady could revert to Gronk/Edelman while Cooks is learning. I think Cooks could be a solid mid-season draft target.
Also, Belichek is not immune to personnel flops. He traded a 2nd for Ealy and is already shopping him.
Captain Quinoa
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Cooks clearly the most divisive player in this thread.
What it boils down is of course Belichick who many fear as his game plans can vary wildly from game to game.
I see Belichick as akin to the kid playing xbox who will shamelessly and relently exploit a glitch to pummel his opponent. So in evaluating Pats for fantasy ya gotta ask how often will this guu pose a unique problem. For Gronk this is obvious (though when they had Hernandez sometimes he was the glitch and went bonkers while Gronl was quiet).
I am huge on Burkheas this year bc Isaw some of those traits last year with the Bengals and BB laser focused on getting him.
The longer I think about Cooks it feels the same way. BB sees a cheat code with him and instant 6s in a of scenarios. He will throw up some duds but I think he will have some comically massive games - and often enough to matter. I think I am in on Cooks now.
-QG
What it boils down is of course Belichick who many fear as his game plans can vary wildly from game to game.
I see Belichick as akin to the kid playing xbox who will shamelessly and relently exploit a glitch to pummel his opponent. So in evaluating Pats for fantasy ya gotta ask how often will this guu pose a unique problem. For Gronk this is obvious (though when they had Hernandez sometimes he was the glitch and went bonkers while Gronl was quiet).
I am huge on Burkheas this year bc Isaw some of those traits last year with the Bengals and BB laser focused on getting him.
The longer I think about Cooks it feels the same way. BB sees a cheat code with him and instant 6s in a of scenarios. He will throw up some duds but I think he will have some comically massive games - and often enough to matter. I think I am in on Cooks now.
-QG
I get the fear, but in 2015 when Big Ben missed games 4~7, 3 of those 4 Bell had over a 100 yards rushing. Last year in the game Ben missed, Bell didn't rush as well but he did have 10 catches. TD's were certainly lacking with Ben out though for sure.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
PPR:
AVOIDS =
Pryor: Going too early for my tastes. Prefer the chemistry/history Cousins has with Crowder and get several rounds later.
Carlos Hyde: I won't take him unless he's drafted for my bench.
Demaryius Thomas: Don't feel comfortable with his shaky QB situation enough to invest a 3rd here.
AVOIDS =
Pryor: Going too early for my tastes. Prefer the chemistry/history Cousins has with Crowder and get several rounds later.
Carlos Hyde: I won't take him unless he's drafted for my bench.
Demaryius Thomas: Don't feel comfortable with his shaky QB situation enough to invest a 3rd here.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
The issue I have with Burkhead is that NE could have been happy and content to stick with him once they signed him . . . but they weren't. AFTER they signed Burkhead, they went out and gave more money and a longer deal to Gillislee. I don't see any way around thinking that means they wanted Gillislee more than they wanted Burkhead.
Things certainly can change . . . one may fit better or perform better now that they are both in the fold. Guys get hurt (Gillislee has been hurt for awhile and just came back . . . Burkhead has missed practice all of this week). Who knows if either or both will play tonight.
Other than Brady, I rarely pimp Pats players and I am giving my unwavering, fully backed 2017 campaign endorsement to Cooks. IMO, he is one of the safest WR picks available with the highest upside outside of Brown / Jones / OBJ (although Nelson and Evans are close).
To say that his training camp reviews have been glowing would be an understatement. The fact that the NE offense was doing just fine without him and they STILL went out and added him should tell people all they need to know.
Brady doesn't throw that deep very often any more. The strength in his game is to find the tiny window in the defense on every play and deliver the ball with remarkable accuracy. In order to do that succesfully the WR needs to know EXACTLY where to go on each play - making adjustments on the fly. This is not easy to learn in a few months. It took Edelman and Wes Welker years to learn it.
Monty Burns
Footballguy
Spock
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I don't think it's that shaky to be honest. DT has now had a full year and off season to work on his chemistry with Semien.
There's a lot to like about DT to be honest. He doesn't miss games, is a mortal lock to see a 27-30% target share, is going to be reunited with McCoy who I think will boost DEN's offensive efficiency in general and he sees a ton of RZ looks.
About those RZ looks, DT had the 6th most last year (23) despite Denver rankings 26th in RZ attempts per game. I read an interesting article the other day (that I can't find at the moment) differentiating between the red zone (20 yards out) and the green zone (5 yards out) and how that effects a WR's TD upside/potential. Obviously, green zone targets are much more valuable than red zone targets. Essentially, over the past two years DT's green zone targets have fallen off a cliff. I expect McCoy to remedy that.
When people point towards McCoy boosting DT's value I usually hear something about his signature screen play being brought back. That's nice but it's not what excites me from a fantasy perspective. It's instead the way I'm predicting DT to be used in scoring situations that does. I think DT has legit double digit TD upside this year. In conjunction with his bankable volume, I actually consider him to be a sleeper to finish top 5 at the position.
fightingillini
Footballguy
I have been warming up to Cooks. I still think his ADP is too high, but if I had to choose between Cooks, Hopkins, DT and K Allen (all with similar ADPs), I would probably go Cooks. Allen has injury issues, and DT and Hopkins upside is very much capped due to indifferent QB play.
It's going to be fun to see this play out.
It's going to be fun to see this play out.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I feel like you are making a lot of assumptions here.
Ware broke down last year and the Chiefs are talented and wanting to make a run. I can see him getting spelled quite a bit more.
D. Thomas I would argue that Sieman is better than Bortles or Henne, and Robinson is going in the early 4th, I don't know where you are getting 3rounds difference
Mixon I read a report recently that they want Mixon to get 20 touches a game, teams can't stack the box to stop him with Green, Eifert and company
L. Miller his quarterback isn't Osweiler this year.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This is an exaggeration. They traded their 2nd, 64 overall for Ealy and the Panthers 3rd 72 overall.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Bump Cooks with the possible ACL to Edelman
64/72 are a wash so it's a 2nd for Ealy. Not an exaggeration at all - what are you talking about?
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Exactly the Pats got 72 and Ealy, the Panthers got 64 they moved back 8 picks to get Ealy. Not a 2nd rounder for just Ealy. What are you talking about?
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
They moved back 8 spots for Ealy. It's not a 2nd for Ealy. They gave up extremely little for him.
Gotcha, my bad. Still, Belichek isn't immune to personnel mistakes.
All this Cooks analysis is mute if Edelman is down for a while - he's going to get force fed.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
My god ... I'm married to an English teacher... she'd never let me hear the end of that one.
Must haves...
1. Marcus Mariota - think he breaks into the elite tier this year and can be had much later than top QBs.
2. Jimmy Graham - Wilson was injured and Graham was still recoving from injury and he still put up a big year. With both healthy I expect a monster year.
3. DeVante Parker - His ADP has risen but still not enough. Massive upside that you just can't find from other guys around his ADP.
Avoid
1. Jordan Howard - I'm always wary of paying a high price for sophomore RBs who didn't have a high draft pedigree. Add in the terrible QB situation and overall talent around him and I won't have him on any of my teams.
2. Travis Kelce - People see #1 TE last year and think he is some sort of major difference maker, and draft him way too early for my liking. I'll pass and take guys like Graham, Eifert, Ertz, etc. rounds later and get similar production.
3. Tyreek Hill - Has elite physical tools, but he is not a good WR. In an average offense with a very vanilla QB. Won't be touching him anywhere near his ADP.
1. Marcus Mariota - think he breaks into the elite tier this year and can be had much later than top QBs.
2. Jimmy Graham - Wilson was injured and Graham was still recoving from injury and he still put up a big year. With both healthy I expect a monster year.
3. DeVante Parker - His ADP has risen but still not enough. Massive upside that you just can't find from other guys around his ADP.
Avoid
1. Jordan Howard - I'm always wary of paying a high price for sophomore RBs who didn't have a high draft pedigree. Add in the terrible QB situation and overall talent around him and I won't have him on any of my teams.
2. Travis Kelce - People see #1 TE last year and think he is some sort of major difference maker, and draft him way too early for my liking. I'll pass and take guys like Graham, Eifert, Ertz, etc. rounds later and get similar production.
3. Tyreek Hill - Has elite physical tools, but he is not a good WR. In an average offense with a very vanilla QB. Won't be touching him anywhere near his ADP.
