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#3 pick is a headache this year (1 Viewer)

RB WR WR seems the way to go to me. Rounds 2 and 3 you can most likely get two of White, Steve Smith, Colston, Boldin, and Colston.

 
I agree ALMOST completely -- but it would be hard as heck to pass up one of B. Jacobs/Westbrook/Portis/P. Thomas if they fall there, especially pairing them with a MJD/Turner/Jackson/Forte -- but you'd be scrambling for 3 wr's the rest of the draft, whereas you can get a couple of decent #2/#3 RB's later and play matchups.

 
I have the #3 pick in a WCFF Satellite as well as the main event, and as crazy as it sounds, if AP and MJD go 1 and 2, I am seriously considering Steve Slaton. It seems to me that all the arguments that can be made for Forte are valid for Slaton. I also think that Slaton has a much better surround cast. I am also considering Gore.

 
I have the 3rd pick as well. I want MJD there but am assuming that he'll be gone. I am considering Forte and then going WR, WR in Rounds 2-3. There seems to be lots of RB depth this year.

 
facook said:
I absolutely WANT to be picking either 1-3 or 10-12 (12 teamer). You'll definitely end up with either 1 stud RB and 2 great WRs (1-3) or 2 stud WRs OR 1 very good RB and 1 stud WR (10-12). Maybe it's because I'm comfortable with any of a few guys at #3. (MJD, Jackson, Gore, Turner, DWil)
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Isn't that a reason to hate the #3 pick? Wouldn't picking 6-7 be much better?
 
IHEARTFF said:
facook said:
I absolutely WANT to be picking either 1-3 or 10-12 (12 teamer). You'll definitely end up with either 1 stud RB and 2 great WRs (1-3) or 2 stud WRs OR 1 very good RB and 1 stud WR (10-12). Maybe it's because I'm comfortable with any of a few guys at #3. (MJD, Jackson, Gore, Turner, DWil)
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Isn't that a reason to hate the #3 pick? Wouldn't picking 6-7 be much better?
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You'd think so, but each time I've mocked it out at 6 or 7, I end up with one of those RBs, one of White, Jennings, Boldin, Smith, Colston, or Wayne and then a lower tier RB or WR in the 3rd (P. Thomas, Grant, Welker, Bowe, et al.). Picking at #3, I still get one of those RBs, one of the WRs mentioned in the 2nd, and then another slides down to me in the 3rd. They're not making it to 6 or 7 in the 3rd round. The drop in value in that 3rd round is crucial in my opinion.
 
hmm so according to everyone's picks Turner is the winner with 4 votes, LT 2nd with 3 1/2 votes, 3rd is jackson with 3 votes, and Forte is 4th with 2 1/2 votes. fitz and Gore is tied at 2 votes.

So i was going in thinking Forte but now I am not sure.

 
I got that pick this year. I'm thinking LT (no PPR) or Brady/Brees (6pt TD's + distance bonus).

I'm gonna try to mock it out

 
Chicago Hooligan said:
There is "RB depth" because no one seems to want to go RB/RB anymore.
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I was def. wrong with this post, as RBs flew off the board in my ongoing email draft. We've nearly completed 3 rounds. My picks:01.03 - Tomlinson - my personal preference (ADP/MJD went 1/2)02.10 - Reggie Wayne - had my fingers crossed for Jacobs but absolutely no RBs slipped through the cracks ADP-wise. Jennings and White also here but I like Wayne's reliability.03.03 - Ryan Grant - here is where it got tricky. This is a reach based on ADP but Grant is def. a 3rd round caliber player, and he was the last guy on the board who looked likely for 300+ touches. Boldin was a big temptation but I also like putting pressure on owners who only have 1 RB.This slot has made me draft conservatively. These guys are all solid but unsexy picks this year. If you really believe in a 5th round back I think you could get away with a more aggressive strategy in these early rounds from the #3 spot.
 
I think that I would try to trade down and try to get Fitz or AJ.....There is so much more depth at RB this year IMO.

My question is... what would be a good trade offer to ask for? My 3 for their ????........ :useless:

 
I haven't had anyone in my league bite on any trade offers I have made. Since I can't pull off a trade and I see any player picked between 3-12 to be interchangeable I might go with DWill. J stewart can't seem to stay healthy and his schedule looks good. I have thought about Brady with all TD's 6pts but we don't get any bonus pts for long TD's. Anyone thinking DWill @ 3?

 
In the interest of full disclosure, I have not been following things too carefully this offseason (other obligations, interests...). Generally I have made my living following the stud RB theory, but I went WR-WR one year with the last pick. This season, I am picking 3rd. Scoring is 6pts all TDs, 1 pt/10 yds rush/rec, 1pt/25 yds passing.

I'm going with Drew Brees.

With all of the ???'s surrounding the RBs (even the great ADP) I don't have a strong opinion on them. Some other reasoning:

1. Safest bet for big #s (IMO)

2. I'm looking to hit home runs this year. Maybe target Pierre Thomas in the second. That Denver RB a bit later. There are others who I can take a swing on, guys like Chester Taylor or Sproles.

3. WRs are tough to predict, but a good one will certainly be available at 2/3 and 4/5. Wayne? Jennings? Gonzalez?

4. Gates is overlooked. Maybe nice upside/value on him at 4/5. Again, a possible home run play.

What I'm saying is that I see some nice value at other positions to be had. I know that there are QBs to be had later on, but for every success story, there are plenty of guys who don't pan out. The first round is for sure things and Brees seems to be it.

As an aside, I've got guys looking to trade down from 4,5... for nothing! They just want the lower pick to get the better 2nd round pick. Rather than follow the herd which seems to be obsessed with value picks and never taking player/position X "too early," I'd rather go after the guy I want. If it's 8 picks too early, who cares?

 
32 Counter Pass said:
I have the #3 pick in a WCFF Satellite as well as the main event, and as crazy as it sounds, if AP and MJD go 1 and 2, I am seriously considering Steve Slaton. It seems to me that all the arguments that can be made for Forte are valid for Slaton. I also think that Slaton has a much better surround cast. I am also considering Gore.
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I think Slaton makes the leap to top five overall this year. Three is a little high, IMO, but I would take him starting at five.
 
Wow I wish I had not read this post now I am more confused. I have suffered thru a S. Jackson injury plauged season I kind of like Forte but his playoff schedule of Minn. and Balt kill his value in my opinion. The whole M. Turner 370+ carries scares me. I have Deangelo as my keeper in my other main league and not sure if I like putting to many eggs in one basket (Thinking about Kevin Barlow from several years back still gets me squeamish as I targeted him in every one of my leagues).

I really was leaing towards Brady or Brees as we also have 6 point qb TD's.

But I have Never not in 12 years not taken a RB in the first round.. and I have several championships..

I am so hoping MJD falls to me at 3 if not it might be drinking the Deangelo Williams Kool aid that won my keeper leauge for me last year.

 
AutoMattek said:
Wow I wish I had not read this post now I am more confused. I have suffered thru a S. Jackson injury plauged season I kind of like Forte but his playoff schedule of Minn. and Balt kill his value in my opinion. The whole M. Turner 370+ carries scares me. I have Deangelo as my keeper in my other main league and not sure if I like putting to many eggs in one basket (Thinking about Kevin Barlow from several years back still gets me squeamish as I targeted him in every one of my leagues).

I really was leaing towards Brady or Brees as we also have 6 point qb TD's.

But I have Never not in 12 years not taken a RB in the first round.. and I have several championships..

I am so hoping MJD falls to me at 3 if not it might be drinking the Deangelo Williams Kool aid that won my keeper leauge for me last year.
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370+ carries should scare you less than the fact that something like 75%+ of Turner's points cam ein 5 games against bottom 7 rush defenses, IIRC. Defenses he doesn't get to face again.Brady could be a good pick with 6 pt TDs.

PPR? Steven Jackson or Forte. Non PPR? Brady/Brees whomever you like better.

This from a guy who has also suffered a Steven Jackson injury season before. All RBs get injured. He just had it happen 2 years in a row. Remind you of anyone? (Fred Taylor, injured 1 year, then not, then injured 2 years...then wasn't injured again for 7 years)

 
You will regret passing on a good Chicago RB...and they have a good one who will get a ridiculous amount of touches. Baring injury, Forte is a no-brainer here, imo. When the weather gets cold in November and December, and Chicago is trying to put a few teams away, sit back and enjoy...trust me on this one.

 
I have it narrowed down to Jackson or Forte unless MJD falls to me. I am not going to worry about the injury risk with SJax. I am going to pass on Brady or Brees. Brady has thrown over 28 TD's only once in his career. If Sjax can stay healthy he can be the #1 player in a PPR. Forte's playoff schedule is brutal. It really is a crap shoot this year @ 3 and no one wants to trade picks with me. Hoping MJD falls and makes the decision easy.

 
With my draft tonight, I thought I would give my latest thoughts on this slot.

I'm going with Brees right away. To me, he has the fewest ???s.

2/3, of course I'll look for value to fall. However, I am prepared to go WR-WR here (Boldin, Smith, Welker, Jennings...) That should give me an advantage at two positions.

From there, obviously I will have to address RB. I'll be looking at the Buffalo combo to get by (Jackson, Lynch), Benson, LJ, Felix Jones, Ray Rice... Given the ADPs, this should be doable. I expect some decent production from these fellas.

I'll repeat that this won't be set in stone, depending on who is available. I am not adverse to pulling the trigger early on a TE, D or K either (I know this is sacrilige around here).

We'll see how it pans out. Any last minute input is appreciated.

 
I have really struggled to figure this out.

With the 3rd pick in the draft I am almost completely sold on taking LT. Where I struggle is what to do in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

With the 2nd pick, in several mocks, I have been able to get one of these:

RB - B. Jacobs, R. Brown

WR - G Jennings, R White

QB - P Manning

I have been leaning RB with the pick but am now considering Manning as the best choice. It's a 6 point/TD league for QBs with lots of yardage and TD length bonuses.

With so many waiting on RBs this season, it seems like the better thing to do is grab Manning and go RB in the 3rd.

Back to the mocks...

 
When I took LT in the 1st at #3 I would def. have followed that with Jacobs if he fell. He didn't, but Jennings/White/Wayne were all there.

I felt like this was a strange team, I wouldn't use this as an indication for what might happen again.

1.03 3. Chicago Hooligans Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC

2.10 22. Chicago Hooligans Wayne, Reggie IND WR

3.03 27. Chicago Hooligans Grant, Ryan GBP RB

4.10 46. Chicago Hooligans Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

5.03 51. Chicago Hooligans Bryant, Antonio TBB WR :thumbup:

6.10 70. Chicago Hooligans Avery, Donnie STL WR :bag:

7.03 75. Chicago Hooligans Palmer, Carson CIN QB

8.10 94. Chicago Hooligans Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def (auto-pick, whoops)

9.03 99. Chicago Hooligans Crabtree, Michael WR :no:

10.10 118. Chicago Hooligans Washington, Leon NYJ RB

 
Chicago Hooligan said:
When I took LT in the 1st at #3 I would def. have followed that with Jacobs if he fell. He didn't, but Jennings/White/Wayne were all there.I felt like this was a strange team, I wouldn't use this as an indication for what might happen again.1.03 3. Chicago Hooligans Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC 2.10 22. Chicago Hooligans Wayne, Reggie IND WR3.03 27. Chicago Hooligans Grant, Ryan GBP RB 4.10 46. Chicago Hooligans Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 5.03 51. Chicago Hooligans Bryant, Antonio TBB WR :2cents: 6.10 70. Chicago Hooligans Avery, Donnie STL WR :no: 7.03 75. Chicago Hooligans Palmer, Carson CIN QB 8.10 94. Chicago Hooligans Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def (auto-pick, whoops)9.03 99. Chicago Hooligans Crabtree, Michael WR :no: 10.10 118. Chicago Hooligans Washington, Leon NYJ RB
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It's not a bad strat to a team but there aren't a lot of players there to get really excited about. And it looks like you'll be starting Lynch and Washington in week 5 while LT and Grant are on bye.
 
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Its not a problem if you like someone, ie I would take Forte in my league, PPR.

He is almost a lock for 40+ more points that Turner just based on PPR.

 
Last nights draft, with round taken, (blank if I forgot). Non ppr, all TDs 6, 1/10rush,rec, 1/50pass.

Brees 1

Edwards 15

Portis 2

L. Johnson 4

A. Bradshaw 7

Fred Jackson

Ray Rice

Steve Smith 3

Eddie Royal 6

Josh Morgan

Chris Henry

Dallas Clark 5

Shayne Graham

Patriots

Bears

Just an idea of how early QB worked out. Not looking for a "rate my team." Just offering help for those considering QB this early. IMO, I like the way things turned out.

 
One very interesting "go for broke" strategy you can pull from the three slot is to take Moss at 1.03, Brady at 2.10, and Welker at 3.03. If the 2009 Pats are anything like the 2007 Pats, you'll have won your league right there.

 
Okay I too have the #3 pick in 0.5 pts per reception league. I took all four of the FGB analysts projected numbers for this season and averaged them out for Forte, LT, and some WRs to compare some numbers. Then factored in the 0.5 pts per reception type scoring for total fantasy points each. I chose not to include SJAX but you could add him to the mix if you please. Here's what I got.

Player

LT

1162 Rush Yds, 11 Rush TDs, 37 Recs, 274 Rec Yds , 1 Rec TDs, 234.1 Total FPTs

1130 Rush Yds, 12 Rush TDs 45 Recs 333 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 252.8 Total FPTs

1300 Rush Yds 12 Rush TDs 55 Recs 425 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 284 Total FPTs

1296 Rush Yds 13 Rush TDs 61 Recs 473 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 297.4 Total FPTs

267.075 Avg Total Pts

Forte

1086 Rush Yds 6 Rush TDs 55 Recs, 391 Rec Yds 3 Rec TDs 229.2 TotalFPTs

1197 Rush Yds 9 Rush TDs 52 Recs, 395 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 251.2 TotalFPTs

1240 Rush Yds 10 Rush TDs 40 Recs, 300 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 246 TotalFPTs

1068 Rush Yds 7 Rush TDs 51 Recs, 397 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 226 TotalFPTs

238.1 Avg Total Pts

Fitzgerald

86 Recs, 1226 Rec Ydds, 9 Rec TDs 219.6Total FPTs

94 Recs, 1241 Rec Yds, 12 Rec TDs 243.1Total FPTs

107 Recs, 1525 Rec Yds , 11 Rec TDs 272Total FPTs

94 Recs, 1321 Rec Yds, 12 Rec TDs 251.1Total FPTs

246.45 Avg Total Pts

Moss

80 Recs 1188 14 Rec TDs 242.8Total FPTs

82 Recs 1181 14 Rec TDs 243.1Total FPTs

87 Recs 1310 14 Rec TDs 258.5Total FPTs

81 Recs 1164 12 Rec TDs 228.9Total FPTs

243.325 Avg Total Pts

AJ

101 Recs 1326 7 Rec TDs 225.1Total FPTs

99 Recs 1386 9 Rec TDs 242.1Total FPTs

101 Recs 1400 9 Rec TDs 244.5Total FPTs

100 Recs 1365 9 Rec TDs 240.5Total FPTs

238.05 Avg Total Pts

It seems like LT is the safe pick here if not the sexy one.

 
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footballnerd said:
Okay I too have the #3 pick in 0.5 pts per reception league. I took all four of the FGB analysts projected numbers for this season and averaged them out for Forte, LT, and some WRs to compare some numbers. Then factored in the 0.5 pts per reception type scoring for total fantasy points each. I chose not to include SJAX but you could add him to the mix if you please. Here's what I got.Player LT 1162 Rush Yds, 11 Rush TDs, 37 Recs, 274 Rec Yds , 1 Rec TDs, 234.1 Total FPTs 1130 Rush Yds, 12 Rush TDs 45 Recs 333 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 252.8 Total FPTs 1300 Rush Yds 12 Rush TDs 55 Recs 425 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 284 Total FPTs 1296 Rush Yds 13 Rush TDs 61 Recs 473 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 297.4 Total FPTs 267.075 Avg Total Pts Forte 1086 Rush Yds 6 Rush TDs 55 Recs, 391 Rec Yds 3 Rec TDs 229.2 TotalFPTs 1197 Rush Yds 9 Rush TDs 52 Recs, 395 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 251.2 TotalFPTs 1240 Rush Yds 10 Rush TDs 40 Recs, 300 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 246 TotalFPTs 1068 Rush Yds 7 Rush TDs 51 Recs, 397 Rec Yds 2 Rec TDs 226 TotalFPTs 238.1 Avg Total Pts Fitzgerald 86 Recs, 1226 Rec Ydds, 9 Rec TDs 219.6Total FPTs 94 Recs, 1241 Rec Yds, 12 Rec TDs 243.1Total FPTs 107 Recs, 1525 Rec Yds , 11 Rec TDs 272Total FPTs 94 Recs, 1321 Rec Yds, 12 Rec TDs 251.1Total FPTs 246.45 Avg Total Pts Moss 80 Recs 1188 14 Rec TDs 242.8Total FPTs 82 Recs 1181 14 Rec TDs 243.1Total FPTs 87 Recs 1310 14 Rec TDs 258.5Total FPTs 81 Recs 1164 12 Rec TDs 228.9Total FPTs 243.325 Avg Total Pts AJ 101 Recs 1326 7 Rec TDs 225.1Total FPTs 99 Recs 1386 9 Rec TDs 242.1Total FPTs 101 Recs 1400 9 Rec TDs 244.5Total FPTs 100 Recs 1365 9 Rec TDs 240.5Total FPTs 238.05 Avg Total PtsIt seems like LT is the safe pick here if not the sexy one.
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i found this extremely helpful as i am drafting in this type of league. i have the 4th slot and may trade entire drafts with the 3 spot who knows i will pick brady.we also have 20pa yds/pt, 10reyd/ruyd per point, 5 pt bonuses for 100 yds, 300yds passing.i am heavily leaning towards brady with a gambling mindset. i just don't see the same sleepers i could latch onto in the 4th-8th rds or undrafted types like chris johnson, slaton this year. i see value type rbs, but no guys that can singlehandedly win games for me so if given the chance i'm going Brady or Brees, and would consider them overall 1 and 4 in my league (ap and mjd hopefully have enough trade value to take 2-3. in the second/third i am targeting portis or smith and welker (or wr above welker adp if they fall). 4th i'm going to start taking best player available with a lean towards wr and not reaching on rbs like moreno, wells, rice, etc prefering to go with more solid but unspectacular in later rounds. this obviously changes if portis is gone by my 2nd pick. also, if you drafted already can you update nerd? my drafts tonight, but i'd be interested in seeing your draft either way
 
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