GordonGekko
Footballguy
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bialczabub
Lord of the Flies
It's incredibly difficult to assess his worth. The foundation of the championship team was laid by Duquette, but Epstein (and Lucchino) certainly nailed getting them over the final hump.
He's had hits and misses since then. Baseball's a game where being right 2 times out of 5 makes you a legend.
BTW, you forgot to mention Dave Dombrowski.
He's had hits and misses since then. Baseball's a game where being right 2 times out of 5 makes you a legend.
BTW, you forgot to mention Dave Dombrowski.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Good GM Or Luckiest Guy On The Planet?
I would say a little of both. There are probably many other GMs who could do just as good a job if they were given as much to spend as Epstein is given.
I would say a little of both. There are probably many other GMs who could do just as good a job if they were given as much to spend as Epstein is given.
Again, there are guys who do well, then come here to Boston and suck, and then go back to some other place and do awesome. Boston's a kitchen too hot for a lot of players. Bronson was 29 last year. His performance last year came out of nowhere. Theo's had some great moves and a few bad ones like many GMs. He may not be Beane but he's definitely above average IMO.
edit: and just so I'm fair on this, I acknowledge that no one saw that coming out of Ortiz either. Of course there is luck involved as Theo has little control of how the players will actually perform. It's ultimately their perogative.
edit: and just so I'm fair on this, I acknowledge that no one saw that coming out of Ortiz either. Of course there is luck involved as Theo has little control of how the players will actually perform. It's ultimately their perogative.
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blackjack23
Footballguy
He went after Contreras and Pavano VERY hard. Youd have to say luck plays a part. But IMO hes also pretty good.
I don't think Contreras has been THAT bad. 4.6 era and 2:1 k:bb for his career. winning record albeit with nyy for some of the time. How much were we going to pay him? others: good: Schilling, Beckett&Lowell/Hanley&Sanchez turned out fine for both clubs, Papelbon, Okajima, Lester, Buchholz, etc...bad: Clement, Suppan, I'm sure there are more...But how much of this can be attributed to Theo vs. someone on his staff, the ownership, James and Co., the actual player? It's pretty difficult to assess GMs.
bialczabub
Lord of the Flies
Theo is more difficult to assess because of Lucchino. He's still easier to assess than Cashman.Most GMs are pretty easily accountable for the team's decisions.
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
His biggest feather to me is trading Nomar and getting OC in there. Really changed the complexion of things and I don't think there's a sniff in hell that the Sox come back 3-0 down with Nomahh on the team. Gutsy, Ballsy move to pull that trigger and it worked out. I think he's overrated in terms of building the squad, but that is the move any Theo defenders should come back to.
bialczabub
Lord of the Flies
I don't agree. While the media likes to latch onto these emotional stories the bottom line is:1) The 2003 Red Sox were more or less a better team than the 2003 Yankees, who managed to pull it off in Game 72) The 2004 Red Sox were an even better team than the year before, most certainly a better team than the Yankees that year3) Nomar had played a whopping 38 games in 2004, contributing about a win and a half to the team (WARP3). By the same measure, OC had contributed about 1.7 wins to the Expos over 103 games so far that season, but was a better fielder and was reliable not to get hurt. Nomar had already become a below league average fielding SS.4) Nomar was making $11.5MM. OC was making half as much.It was a gutsy decision to cast off the star of the Red Sox from a few years earlier, but it was painfully obvious that his best days were behind him, his contract was huge, and that the Red Sox had some wiggle room against the Yankees.Throw in his alleged prissy, prima donna attitude, and it's understandable.So my analysis is that the move was gutsy, but not brilliant.NY/NJMFDIVER said:
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NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
???
bialczabub
Lord of the Flies
You're saying it's the biggest feather in his cap.In terms of moves, it easily ranks behind:
signing Ortiz
signing Foulke
signing Schilling
signing Dave Roberts
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
Fair point, I didn't realize he signed Papi, that would be the defining move in that case, Schilling a close second. However, I will say, the Ortiz/Nomar moves were the gambles, whereas getting a closer and Schilling were no-brainers.It is amazing though, and all GM's have it good and bad, but the luck invovled, considering Manny was waived in each of those off seasons but found no takers. The complexion might have been very different had someone claimed him.
bialczabub
Lord of the Flies
very good chance the Red Sox would have landed A-Rod in those cases.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Dan Duquette definately had a lot of say in the championship team. Theo did sign David Ortiz though and was able to trade for Schilling and what put them over the top that year was his trade of Garciaparra and bringing in Cabrera. They were starting to struggle when he made the move to trade Nomar and obtain Cabrera, that was a ballsy move and he should be applauded for it.
However since then, his free agent moves and trades have been marginal at best.
He's been awful at the shortstop position since trading for Cabrera. Aside from Okajima, he's been terrible about his acquisitions for the bullpen. He overpaid for Varitek when he was competing against nobody. He did luck out on Contreras but the Pavano thing is a wash because he signed Clement, which was also a disaster.
I have very mixed feelings about the guy but his saving grace is that he has drafted well and the farm system is in the best shape it's been that I can remember. So there are definately some mixed grades here.
However since then, his free agent moves and trades have been marginal at best.
He's been awful at the shortstop position since trading for Cabrera. Aside from Okajima, he's been terrible about his acquisitions for the bullpen. He overpaid for Varitek when he was competing against nobody. He did luck out on Contreras but the Pavano thing is a wash because he signed Clement, which was also a disaster.
I have very mixed feelings about the guy but his saving grace is that he has drafted well and the farm system is in the best shape it's been that I can remember. So there are definately some mixed grades here.
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wilked
Footballguy
Theo has been good, not great.
JTC, I think you are selling Lugo short...I realize he had one of the largest modern day slumps of a MLB player, but since he corrected his mechanics he has been a top 3 shortstop (see below for how AL SS have done since the ASB)
JTC, I think you are selling Lugo short...I realize he had one of the largest modern day slumps of a MLB player, but since he corrected his mechanics he has been a top 3 shortstop (see below for how AL SS have done since the ASB)
Code:
Name Team HR SB RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS ISOMichael Young Rangers 2 3 13 0.361 0.425 0.500 0.925 0.139Yuniesky Betancourt Mariners 4 0 19 0.346 0.370 0.538 0.908 0.192Julio Lugo Red Sox 1 5 15 0.339 0.372 0.455 0.827 0.116Derek Jeter Yankees 3 5 13 0.311 0.368 0.424 0.792 0.113Miguel Tejada Orioles 4 0 17 0.273 0.294 0.470 0.764 0.197Jhonny Peralta Indians 3 0 9 0.270 0.336 0.387 0.723 0.117Jason Bartlett Twins 1 4 7 0.273 0.302 0.382 0.684 0.109Bobby Crosby Athletics 1 3 2 0.231 0.333 0.333 0.666 0.102Carlos Guillen Tigers 0 3 7 0.259 0.317 0.348 0.665 0.089Juan Uribe White Sox 5 0 16 0.206 0.243 0.402 0.645 0.196Brendan Harris Devil Rays 0 0 6 0.250 0.325 0.315 0.640 0.065Orlando Cabrera Angels 2 2 16 0.246 0.290 0.333 0.623 0.087John McDonald Blue Jays 0 1 10 0.210 0.254 0.323 0.577 0.113Tony Pena Royals 0 2 16 0.212 0.222 0.249 0.471 0.037
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Darth Cheney
Footballguy
The guy was a big part in winning a World Series for a down and out, always a bridesmaid never a bride, somewhat of a joke, self loathing, self hating third rate team for a second rate city for the first time in 86 years.....he could be caught fighting dogs against children and his legacy would still be secure.
bialczabub
Lord of the Flies
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
I can't argue as Lugo has definately busted out of that slump that plagued him for the first 3 months as a Red Sox. I'm really not worried about him right now, he's been fine lately and I am optimistic that he will continue to be fine going forward.I am more frustrated with the revolving door that has been at that position since Theo has been here. They have definately overmanaged it.wilked said:
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wilked
Footballguy
Well, we agree there, but I am pretty sure we disagree on what was overmanaged (Renteria signing good, premature trade bad IMO), but that is a side discussion
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I think that he is a very good GM, but I'm not sure that the World Series is the best thing to try and "measure" him by. Since then, he has had the benefit of a big payroll and he has managed, for the most part, to use that money and build a solid team. I think that it is VERY difficult to use playoff success as the measuring stick for whether someone is good at what they do. Taking the tools you are given and getting the desired result a la Billy Beane (sp), Theo, Cashman, etc. makes you a good GM. Taking the tools you are given and doing an atrocious job a la Tim Purpura in Houston means you are a bad GM.
Theo is lucky and good. THere is room for both.
Theo is lucky and good. THere is room for both.
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
Where do we hold judgement on him for dealing Hanley Rameriez? Beckett rebounded nicely this year, but damn that has to hurt to give him up. He might haunt them like a Bagwell for this generation(because at least Larry Anderson got them to post season)
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Technically Theo was not around when Hanley was dealt. That was pretty much Lucchino's deal.Regardless you have to pay if you want quality starting pitching. If Beckett continues to pitch like he has this year, this will always go down as a decent trade.Comparing this as a Bagwell for Anderson deal is ridiculous at this point.
RoarinSonoran
Footballguy
Manny Ortez probably helped a great deal.
wilked
Footballguy
If Theo could reverse the trade today, he would not
Beckett / Lowell for HanRam is fairly even. The trade was one of those true win-wins
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
Well, you do have Annibal in that equation too, and while he's down right now, he'll be back and he's already thrown a no-no. If the Sox don't get to the world series with Beckett, is it still worth it? We are talking about the best player in the national league here?But I will give you that Lowell has contributed nicely for two seasons, and as far as a take on salary guy, you've got to be happy with him. He's a class guy, good defender and all around contributor.wilked said:If Theo could reverse the trade today, he would notBeckett / Lowell for HanRam is fairly even. The trade was one of those true win-wins
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Seeing that the Sox have Beckett locked up to a reasonable contract until 2010, I will be happy to reevaluate it at that point if you like but for now its just a ridiculous hypothetical. The Sox should be good for the next few years and barring injury Beckett is going to be a big contributor. He is only 27 years old.
wilked
Footballguy
And Beckett is probably the favorite to win the Cy this year. Depends on what you covet more, pitching or hitting. As I said before, this is one of those true win-win trades...
tikigods
Footballguy
I agree with most points in this post, however I want to point out Theo's biggest move: the trade of Hillenbrand to the Diamondbacks for Kim. This trade not only unloaded a guy who proved to be a giant terd (Hillenbrand) but it opened up the opportunity for Ortiz to play at first base, eventually in the DH role, and the rest is history. When Theo signed Ortiz, he was going to be used in a Wily Mo capacity: hit only right handed pitching. Once Hillenbrand was moved the log jam with Mueller at third, Millar at first, and Ortiz at the DH was settled.No skill involved there because NOBODY knew the kind of player Ortiz would turn out to be....it was simply dumb luck.
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bostiguy
Footballguy
We also have to consider transactions he chose NOT to do. He did not want to sign Pedro on Pedro's terms, wise move. And also chose not to re-sign Damon, which in my opinion will probably turn out to be a wise move.
I can't remember this one: what was the trade that sent the reigning NL batting champ to Pittsburgh? (F. Sanchez)
Theo also brought in guys like Millar and Mueller, Mueller turned out to be a great player while here. You never heard anybody complaining about him, he was a true "dirtdog".
I can't remember this one: what was the trade that sent the reigning NL batting champ to Pittsburgh? (F. Sanchez)
Theo also brought in guys like Millar and Mueller, Mueller turned out to be a great player while here. You never heard anybody complaining about him, he was a true "dirtdog".
bialczabub
Lord of the Flies
If by "wise move," you mean "ensuring that the Red Sox wouldn't repeat as champions."
bostiguy
Footballguy
You're right that one year of production would have easily been worth the value of a four year contract. Especially seeing it came with a World Series Win guarantee clause.
SteelCurtain
Footballguy
I used to be a big Theo fan but have really cooled on him. I think from a player development standpoint, he has really done a nice job. We are starting to see the fruits of that with Papelbon, Ellsbury, Bucholtz, Lester...further down the line there are others that will need some time but will hopefully be contributors (i.e. Masterson, etc.)
He has some wins in terms of getting Ortiz, Mueller, Garciaparra trade, etc. But his losses are piling up (Renteria, Clement, Drew, Lugo, closer by committee, etc.)
I just don't get his obsession with Drew which no one in Boston wanted but he thought it was a good way to commit $14 miilion/year for the next 5 years and his love of Lugo which Theo spent the better part of the last three years trying to acquire via trade and eventually finally got him for $36 million over 4 years. Of course, Drew is hitting .254 with 7 HR's and Lugo is batting .236. Lugo's OBP isn't even .300!
I am very mixed on Theo.......getting more and more negative each day.
He has some wins in terms of getting Ortiz, Mueller, Garciaparra trade, etc. But his losses are piling up (Renteria, Clement, Drew, Lugo, closer by committee, etc.)
I just don't get his obsession with Drew which no one in Boston wanted but he thought it was a good way to commit $14 miilion/year for the next 5 years and his love of Lugo which Theo spent the better part of the last three years trying to acquire via trade and eventually finally got him for $36 million over 4 years. Of course, Drew is hitting .254 with 7 HR's and Lugo is batting .236. Lugo's OBP isn't even .300!
I am very mixed on Theo.......getting more and more negative each day.
wilked
Footballguy
Since the ASB Lugo has hit .298/.330/.420/.750, and has been just fine in his role. He went through one of the worst slumps ever recorded by a professional baseball player. If you choose to include the slump numbers, be my guest, but he in no way resembles that player now. Can't disagree on the Drew signing though.
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