3rd Keeper: David Johnson (1st), A. Collins (17), Josh Gordon (17) or K. Drake (17)? WHIR (1 Viewer)

[4th&inches]

In a 12-team, non-ppr, 6pt for all TD's, 3yr keeper league where the keeper rules are the following:

1. Can keep up to 3 players drafted after round 5 (so 6th round = 1st keeper round)
   
2. Players can be kept in year 1 at a cost of 1 round prior to draft round (drafted in round 6 = 5th round pick), if added as FA = last round keeper
   
3. Year 2 = 1/2 of previous year keeper round (kept in year 1 for a 6th round pick = 3rd round pick in year 2)
   
4. Year 3 = 1st round pick. 
   

• Start: QRRWWTFKD
  
• Scoring: .5PPR, 4pts passing TD, 6pt all other TD's
  

I have the below potential keepers (keeper rounds in parentheses):

• Alvin Kamara (11th round - 1st year) - Keeping 100%
  
• Deshaun Watson (17th round 1st year) 
  

• David Johnson (1st round - 3rd year) 
  
• Alex Collins (17th round - 1st year)
  
• Josh Gordon (17th round - 1st year)
  
• Kenyan Drake (17th round - 1st year) 
  

I plan to keep Kamara & Watson, so I'm between the above 3 with my 3rd keeper. 

Here's where it gets interesting: We hold a draft lottery and I got the 3rd "Choice" for my pick. I assume picks 1 & 2  will be chosen 1st. So, do I:

1. choose pick 3 and get 1 of: Gurley, Elliot, DJ, Bell (I rank them in that order) - then keep either Collins/Gordon/ Drake
   
2. choose pick 4 and get 1 of: Gurley, Elliot, DJ, Bell - then keep either Collins/Gordon/ Drake
   
3. choose pick 12, keep DJ, and then draft a stud WR with my 2.01 pick?
   

I know its a lot, so I'll say thank you in advance for any/ all help & will help with anyone who responds, so leave a link. 

 

[beerbuff]

Choose option 1, or option 2. 

 

[4th&inches]

Choose option 1, or option 2. 

Thanks; 

Would you rather go with the 3rd or 4th spot then? And since you think option 1 or 2, would you keep Collins or Drake?

thanks again

 

[B-Dawk]

I like your idea in option #3. You still get DJ, and a better WR than if you wait til the end of round 2. 

 

[Avery]

I like option 3.

You get the same "class" of stud RB you'd get at the top of the round and I like pairing him with the best pick at 2.01 vs Collins/Drake.

Thanks for answering mine! 

 

[4th&inches]

I like your idea in option #3. You still get DJ, and a better WR than if you wait til the end of round 2. 

I like option 3.

You get the same "class" of stud RB you'd get at the top of the round and I like pairing him with the best pick at 2.01 vs Collins/Drake.

Thanks for answering mine! 

Is the benefit of keeping DJ in the 1st + getting a top WR/ Gronk (I absolutely love the advantage Gronk provides at the position this year) at 2.01 greater than the value of drafting DJ/Zeke/Bell + Collins & then the 2.9/10 pick (WR/ if Gronk is somehow still there) and then coming back with pick 3.3/4?

In the few mocks I've done, Gronk has fallen to me at 2.9, but that's not taking into account the handful of 1st & 2nd Round players (Kamara, Hunt, Howard, Thielen, Adams, M. Thomas, McKinnon) that will likely be kept... so, I guess it's not all that likely that Gronk would fall to me with the 2.09 pick. 

This is basically what I've been wrestling with 

 

[beerbuff]

Thanks; 

Would you rather go with the 3rd or 4th spot then? And since you think option 1 or 2, would you keep Collins or Drake?

thanks again

The third spot, just in case an injury pops up before your draft and I'd keep Collins but reading the responses I can see option 3 being pretty good.

 

[Gally]

I go with option 3 because you still get the stud RB, and earlier round 2 pick and your keeper of Collins (I prefer him over drake).  I think overall your team is better.

 

[4th&inches]

I go with option 3 because you still get the stud RB, and earlier round 2 pick and your keeper of Collins (I prefer him over drake).  I think overall your team is better.

Just to be clear, I'm definitely keeping Kamara & D. Watson. So, if I go with option 3 & keep DJ, that would be my 3 keepers. 

So, while I'd get an early 2nd round pick, I would not be able to also keep Collins/ Drake/ Josh Gordon. 

 

[Gally]

Just to be clear, I'm definitely keeping Kamara & D. Watson. So, if I go with option 3 & keep DJ, that would be my 3 keepers. 

So, while I'd get an early 2nd round pick, I would not be able to also keep Collins/ Drake/ Josh Gordon. 

Oops....you are correct.  But I say keep DJ and get the early 2nd.