3rd round wr (1 Viewer)

[cantstop1999]

What do you guys think about a 3rd round wr if you go this route, most drafts are seeing these 2 wr's in that ball park. Holt is very solid always but probably starting to come to his steady but possibly down side (just alittle bit) also has no one opposite him to stop double teaming him and the team is'nt what it use to be. Holmes is going into his 3rd year and looks great and is on his way up, also has a talent in Ward opposite side to keep double teaming off him and has a great team around him. I see enough upside in Holmes to take my chances with him vs Holt ,What do you guys think ?

 

[gman8343]

PPR I'd go Holt, non-ppr it's closer, but I'd still probably stay with Holt.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Holt. Don't overthink things.

 

[cantstop1999]

it's non ppr and im not over thinking this guys going to be a star.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Holt is in a contract year and it's his last shot at a big payday. It's amazing how players always seem to stay healthy and produce when this is the case. Even in his down year this past season he still put up 1100+yds and 7 TDs. Go with Holt.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Holt is in a contract year and it's his last shot at a big payday. It's amazing how players always seem to stay healthy and produce when this is the case.

Actually, that's not the case. Not sure who did the study or where it can be found but guys in contract years don't typically perform any better/worse than their other seasons.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Holt. Don't overthink things.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Holt is in a contract year and it's his last shot at a big payday. It's amazing how players always seem to stay healthy and produce when this is the case.

Actually, that's not the case. Not sure who did the study or where it can be found but guys in contract years don't typically perform any better/worse than their other seasons.

I'd like to see the data. I would imagine the more talented ones do over perform in contract years, but there are so many more nobodies that don't, or aren't given the chance to do so, that everything comes out to a nice average to support that theory. I'm also going to guess that so many of the top players that would over perform don't see that contract year these days. They over perform a few years before, and hold out to get paid. Just my thoughts.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Holt is in a contract year and it's his last shot at a big payday. It's amazing how players always seem to stay healthy and produce when this is the case.

Actually, that's not the case. Not sure who did the study or where it can be found but guys in contract years don't typically perform any better/worse than their other seasons.

It's not just a contract year, it's his last opportunity for a big contract. I'm not saying that Holt is going to perform better than his career average, but I do think he will be more inclined to play through any injuries or another down season by the Rams. I expect him to get 1200 yds with 9-10 TDs which would put him at around WR8. If you think Holmes will surpass those numbers, then he's the better pick. But I think Holt is a lock for the top 10 and Holmes is more risky.

 

[cantstop1999]

Holt is in a contract year and it's his last shot at a big payday. It's amazing how players always seem to stay healthy and produce when this is the case.

Actually, that's not the case. Not sure who did the study or where it can be found but guys in contract years don't typically perform any better/worse than their other seasons.

It's not just a contract year, it's his last opportunity for a big contract. I'm not saying that Holt is going to perform better than his career average, but I do think he will be more inclined to play through any injuries or another down season by the Rams. I expect him to get 1200 yds with 9-10 TDs which would put him at around WR8. If you think Holmes will surpass those numbers, then he's the better pick. But I think Holt is a lock for the top 10 and Holmes is more risky.

i agree, but i do see Holmes in the ball park of 1200 and 10 td's plus or minus a little.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Holt is in a contract year and it's his last shot at a big payday. It's amazing how players always seem to stay healthy and produce when this is the case.

Actually, that's not the case. Not sure who did the study or where it can be found but guys in contract years don't typically perform any better/worse than their other seasons.

It's not just a contract year, it's his last opportunity for a big contract. I'm not saying that Holt is going to perform better than his career average, but I do think he will be more inclined to play through any injuries or another down season by the Rams. I expect him to get 1200 yds with 9-10 TDs which would put him at around WR8. If you think Holmes will surpass those numbers, then he's the better pick. But I think Holt is a lock for the top 10 and Holmes is more risky.

i agree, but i do see Holmes in the ball park of 1200 and 10 td's plus or minus a little.

Sure that's possible. My only concern with Holmes is the number of targets. Last year Holt had 145 targets to 85 for Holmes. Assuming both stay healthy, Holt's targets are definitely not going down this year and Holmes would need to see his increase significantly because I don't think he can maintain the lofty, league leading 18.1 ypc from last season.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Holt is in a contract year and it's his last shot at a big payday. It's amazing how players always seem to stay healthy and produce when this is the case.

Actually, that's not the case. Not sure who did the study or where it can be found but guys in contract years don't typically perform any better/worse than their other seasons.

It's not just a contract year, it's his last opportunity for a big contract. I'm not saying that Holt is going to perform better than his career average, but I do think he will be more inclined to play through any injuries or another down season by the Rams. I expect him to get 1200 yds with 9-10 TDs which would put him at around WR8. If you think Holmes will surpass those numbers, then he's the better pick. But I think Holt is a lock for the top 10 and Holmes is more risky.

Totally agree.

 

[cantstop1999]

Holt is in a contract year and it's his last shot at a big payday. It's amazing how players always seem to stay healthy and produce when this is the case.

Actually, that's not the case. Not sure who did the study or where it can be found but guys in contract years don't typically perform any better/worse than their other seasons.

It's not just a contract year, it's his last opportunity for a big contract. I'm not saying that Holt is going to perform better than his career average, but I do think he will be more inclined to play through any injuries or another down season by the Rams. I expect him to get 1200 yds with 9-10 TDs which would put him at around WR8. If you think Holmes will surpass those numbers, then he's the better pick. But I think Holt is a lock for the top 10 and Holmes is more risky.

i agree, but i do see Holmes in the ball park of 1200 and 10 td's plus or minus a little.

Sure that's possible. My only concern with Holmes is the number of targets. Last year Holt had 145 targets to 85 for Holmes. Assuming both stay healthy, Holt's targets are definitely not going down this year and Holmes would need to see his increase significantly because I don't think he can maintain the lofty, league leading 18.1 ypc from last season.

Nice point, i do believe his targets will increase but not as many as holt.

 

[millertyme1]

Easy pick here with Holt. JMO Holmes' upside this year is Holt's downside.

 

[cantstop1999]

Easy pick here with Holt. JMO Holmes' upside this year is Holt's downside.

Holts downside was 1189 and 7 tds last year, 842 and 8 tds i wouldn't say this. Holt's solid but for Holmes to get 2 more tds than last year is very possible and his yards should increase. 1100 and 10 are possible and Holt will be close with 1200 and 8 i think.

 

[Scruff Mcgruff]

Holmes vs Bowe would be a much closer and interesting discussion. Because I think they are similar players on the verge of both breaking out

 

[cantstop1999]

Holmes vs Bowe would be a much closer and interesting discussion. Because I think they are similar players on the verge of both breaking out

I disagree K.C. has no QB, Pitt does.

 

[RBM]

Holmes vs Bowe would be a much closer and interesting discussion. Because I think they are similar players on the verge of both breaking out

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...362&hl=BOWE

 

[I'm Rick James]

Santonio Holmes has talent and Big Ben can find him on the long ones. I'm just worried that with Pitts defense, they may be using the Willie Parker/Mendenhall combo when they're up.

I'd go Holt because St. Louis will have to throw more. Plus with Bruce gone, Bulger may lock on him even more.

 

[travdogg]

The real question I have is how are either of these guys the best available option in the 3rd round? Surely there has to be other WR's available. I'd take Steve Smith if he falls(or Marshall for that matter) over either of these guys.

To answer this one, its very close, but I'd lean ever so slightly in Holmes' direction, I just have a really bad feeling about the Rams in general and think these guys are close enough that it is better to shoot for the upside.

 

[Catbird]

You ask who people like between Holmes and Holt. The first 12 to reply all say Holt You argue with half of the comments. Maybe your OP should have been, 'I think Holmes is getter than Holt.' Or maybe, 'I think Holmes will get 1200 and 10 TDs and Holt won't.' If you were already convinved, why ask the question like you were wondering?

If you care, I too think Holt is a far safer top 7-12 finish. The directions their OLs are taking from last weighs heavily against Holmes improving to Holt's level.

 

[EBF]

Tough call. Torry Holt is a great player. If he's healthy, he's going to produce. So as long as he has a clean bill of health, I have to consider him a very good candidate to catch 80+ balls for 1200+ yards.

That said, I really like Holmes in both dynasty and redraft leagues. He's been consistently impressive thus far in the NFL, he has a great QB throwing him the ball, and I've read some impressive stuff about his work ethic. I think he might be on the cusp of greatness. We'll see.

 

[cantstop1999]

The real question I have is how are either of these guys the best available option in the 3rd round? Surely there has to be other WR's available. I'd take Steve Smith if he falls(or Marshall for that matter) over either of these guys. To answer this one, its very close, but I'd lean ever so slightly in Holmes' direction, I just have a really bad feeling about the Rams in general and think these guys are close enough that it is better to shoot for the upside.

smith and mashall are both suspended if you haven't heard and that hurts there value.

 

[menobrown]

Holt had 145 targets to 85 for Holmes. Assuming both stay healthy, Holt's targets are definitely not going down this year and Holmes would need to see his increase significantly because I don't think he can maintain the lofty, league leading 18.1 ypc from last season.

And that is exactly the reason in a non-PPR league I'd go with Holmes over Holt.One thing to add is the 85 targets is not a fair measuring stick since Holmes missed 3 games. Over a full 16 game season Holmes numbers would have projected to 104.6 targets.

Holt edged Holmes in total fantasy points but Holmes actually beat him in fantasy points per game in non-PPR leagues. So the way I see it is if Holmes can outproduce Holt with less targets and I feel he has far greater potential to increase his targets than Holt has chance to increase his targets than Holmes would be a no brainer pick for me. Again in non-PPR league.

Regarding the issue of his YPC. He averaged 16.8 on a similar amount of catches his rookie year so he has shown a propensity for a high YPC. Now some of that is why he also is not targeted as frequently is because he runs a lot of deep routes. This is were I say something has to give one way or the other for Holmes and either way he'll come out as a good producer. If the Steelers continue to feature Holmes on the same type of patterns he has always run he might not see a sizable spike in targets but his YPC would probably remain high. If the Steelers do as I think they will do, which is feature Holmes in an expanded role his targets will increase but he YPC will decrease but that will be more than offset by his increased targets.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I don't think he can maintain the lofty, league leading 18.1 ypc from last season.

Have you seen the Steeler offense? His ypc should stay among the top of the leaderboard. There are other things to knock him on, but he gets behind people, especially when Ben buys time.Did you see him the on the preseason MNF make Brian Dawkins look silly? 19.0

 

[The Man with the Plan]

3rd round is much too early for Santonio Holmes. 4th or 5th round is more reasonable.

 

[gianmarco]

Easy pick here with Holt. JMO Holmes' upside this year is Holt's downside.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

3rd round is much too early for Santonio Holmes. 4th or 5th round is more reasonable.

ADP3.02 Chad Johnson WR CIN 25.9 3.1 2.05 3.11 721

3.05 Plaxico Burress WR NYG 29.4 3.6 2.07 4.07 679

3.06 Steve Smith WR CAR 30.4 4.0 2.08 5.01 651

3.07 Torry Holt WR STL 31.2 3.9 2.09 4.10 658

3.09 Wes Welker WR NE 32.9 4.8 2.08 5.05 647

3.12 Santonio Holmes WR PIT 36.3 5.1 2.10 5.03 718

3.12 Anquan Boldin WR ARI 36.4 4.8 2.12 5.05 615

4.04 Roy Williams WR DET 39.8 5.0 3.02 5.09 713

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Not sure where you got those numbers from. Myfantasyleague.com has Torry Holt as a late 3rd round pick to mid-4th round pick depending on league size (36) and Santonio Holmes as a late 4th to mid 5th round pick (46).Antsports has Santonio Holmes in the 40's which is anywhere from a mid-4th to early-5th round pick depending on league size.

Those are reasonable estimates to me as to where Santonio Holmes should be drafted. To draft Holmes in the 3rd round would likely make him a fantasy team's #1 wide receiver. With the lack of track record and the problems for the Steelers offensive line that's a scenario that would make me very uncomfortable. I don't know why someone would take him that high unless they have extremely lofty (whether they're unreasonable or not isn't for me to decide) expectations for him. Even then according to the draft data I have you don't have to take him so early.

As a #2 wide receiver I think he's more effective because you don't have to rely on him as much. If he then performs like a #1 wide receiver that's all the better. He becomes much more valuable that way.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Not sure where you got those numbers from. Myfantasyleague.com has Torry Holt as a late 3rd round pick to mid-4th round pick depending on league size (36) and Santonio Holmes as a late 4th to mid 5th round pick (46).

Antsports has Santonio Holmes in the 40's which is anywhere from a mid-4th to early-5th round pick depending on league size.

Those are reasonable estimates to me as to where Santonio Holmes should be drafted. To draft Holmes in the 3rd round would likely make him a fantasy team's #1 wide receiver. With the lack of track record and the problems for the Steelers offensive line that's a scenario that would make me very uncomfortable.

As a #2 wide receiver he's more effective because you don't have to rely on him as much. If he then performs like a #1 wide receiver that's all the better. He becomes much more valuable that way.

I think you may have some old stuff.Data from 1450 drafts between August 9, 2008 and August 11, 2008 is what I posted from FFCalc.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

To draft Holmes in the 3rd round would likely make him a fantasy team's #1 wide receiver. With the lack of track record and the problems for the Steelers offensive line that's a scenario that would make me very uncomfortable. I don't know why someone would take him that high unless they have extremely lofty (whether they're unreasonable or not isn't for me to decide) expectations for him. Even then according to the draft data I have you don't have to take him so early.

Im not saying you should take Holmes over Holt.But... the Steelers had the same (or worse) line last year. Holmes outscored Holt per game last year.If they both play 15 games; its not an unreasonable scenario.If you can only have 1... and you cannot get either with your 4th round pick...

 

[The Man with the Plan]

On MFL and Antsports I took a look at drafts that took place this month and on both sites Santonio Holmes was listed in the 40's.

Now I understand that the Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall suspensions may have made certain receivers seem more valuable but it wouldn't be wise to overreact and then overpay for a talented, yet unproven wide receiver in Santonio Holmes with an early pick.

Maybe a new trend will pop up and Holmes will be a player that you have to use a 3rd-round pick to guarantee him having a spot on a fantasy team. If that's the case then I know which teams he won't be playing for this season.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

be a player that you have to use a 3rd-round pick to guarantee him having a spot on a fantasy team. If that's the case then I know which teams he won't be playing for this season.

I feel the same way about Holt.

 

[Tau837]

Holt is in a contract year and it's his last shot at a big payday. It's amazing how players always seem to stay healthy and produce when this is the case.

Actually, that's not the case. Not sure who did the study or where it can be found but guys in contract years don't typically perform any better/worse than their other seasons.

It's not just a contract year, it's his last opportunity for a big contract. I'm not saying that Holt is going to perform better than his career average, but I do think he will be more inclined to play through any injuries or another down season by the Rams. I expect him to get 1200 yds with 9-10 TDs which would put him at around WR8. If you think Holmes will surpass those numbers, then he's the better pick. But I think Holt is a lock for the top 10 and Holmes is more risky.

Holt has always played through injuries. Just last year, for example, he played with a knee problem all season and had a fine season. His contract has nothing to do with it.And I have challenged people who make these kinds of statements numerous times over the years, and no one has ever been able to prove that contract year performance is anything more than a myth.All that said, I agree Holt is the easy choice here.

 

[Tanner9919]

Unless/until Holmes produces at the same level, you have to go with Holt...

 

[Banger]

I like both guys and have owned both guys. As much as I'd like to take the new shiny penny and the potential upside over the old known commodity, I'd have to go Holt in a redraft. He's just too solid, too dependable and too good to pass up.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Holt, there's still a pretty good gap that Holmes has to close to actually produce the kind of numbers that Holt has. Holmes is a good player, makes some nice plays but he's also contending with veteran Hines Ward who figures to be in the offense quite a bit, Heath Miller proved to be one of Ben's favorite targets in the red zone last year and they drafted a big rookie WR in Sweed.

Sure, Holmes will get his but it's hard to make up the kind of ground he needs to make up to beat out Holt in points. Anything is possible but if you play the percentages, I go with Holt. I'd say there's about a 70 percent chance that Holt out produces him this year.

 

[the_sig]

Holt had 145 targets to 85 for Holmes. Assuming both stay healthy, Holt's targets are definitely not going down this year and Holmes would need to see his increase significantly because I don't think he can maintain the lofty, league leading 18.1 ypc from last season.

And that is exactly the reason in a non-PPR league I'd go with Holmes over Holt.One thing to add is the 85 targets is not a fair measuring stick since Holmes missed 3 games. Over a full 16 game season Holmes numbers would have projected to 104.6 targets.

Holt edged Holmes in total fantasy points but Holmes actually beat him in fantasy points per game in non-PPR leagues. So the way I see it is if Holmes can outproduce Holt with less targets and I feel he has far greater potential to increase his targets than Holt has chance to increase his targets than Holmes would be a no brainer pick for me. Again in non-PPR league.

Regarding the issue of his YPC. He averaged 16.8 on a similar amount of catches his rookie year so he has shown a propensity for a high YPC. Now some of that is why he also is not targeted as frequently is because he runs a lot of deep routes. This is were I say something has to give one way or the other for Holmes and either way he'll come out as a good producer. If the Steelers continue to feature Holmes on the same type of patterns he has always run he might not see a sizable spike in targets but his YPC would probably remain high. If the Steelers do as I think they will do, which is feature Holmes in an expanded role his targets will increase but he YPC will decrease but that will be more than offset by his increased targets.

I've never been a fan of extrapolating by saying 'if a guy was healthy' or 'if you don't count the one TD run the guy broke'...Year end stats are what they are. If you wanted to provide full disclosure on the Holt vs. Holmes argument based on 'ifs' you'd also have to mention that Holt started slow due to his knee issues, the Rams suffered from a series of disasterous injuries to the O-Line, SJax, and Bulger, which left Holt catching passes from the great Gus Frerotte for several weeks.

To answer the OP's question, I'd go Holt.

 

[menobrown]

I've never been a fan of extrapolating by saying 'if a guy was healthy' or 'if you don't count the one TD run the guy broke'...

Year end stats are what they are.

Year end stats are worthless unless you are just playing a total point league with no head to head play in a league that does not allow for substitutes. Points per game is how I judge a player.

 

[Banger]

I've never been a fan of extrapolating by saying 'if a guy was healthy' or 'if you don't count the one TD run the guy broke'...

Year end stats are what they are.

Year end stats are worthless unless you are just playing a total point league with no head to head play in a league that does not allow for substitutes. Points per game is how I judge a player.

To me, it's a combination of both. PPG can be skewed based on limited opponents (Ronnie Brown) so you can't just take those figures without reading a little deeper as well.

 

[menobrown]

I've never been a fan of extrapolating by saying 'if a guy was healthy' or 'if you don't count the one TD run the guy broke'...

Year end stats are what they are.

Year end stats are worthless unless you are just playing a total point league with no head to head play in a league that does not allow for substitutes. Points per game is how I judge a player.

To me, it's a combination of both. PPG can be skewed based on limited opponents (Ronnie Brown) so you can't just take those figures without reading a little deeper as well.

For the most part I agree with you. In this case I feel the 13 games Holmes played was a sufficient amount of games to get an idea of his points per game. If a player plays a limited amount of games, such as Brown, I think you can look at his PPG production as a tool but when the sample size is limited you have to look closely at things such as one big game skewing the numbers. Also with RB's you have to factor in wear and tear. For instance Ryan Grant had a decent sample size of games played but he got the majority of his carries as the season wore on and he was fresh running against tired defenses. Which is why I would not expect him to average the same YPC as last year since he will now start the season on equal footing with the defense and is more likely to wear down as the season goes as he has not been a feature back for 16 games before.

To each their own but to me the problem with simply looking at year to date stats is you are basically assuming the games played is going to remain the same. For instance if you value Holt over Holmes because of total fantasy points scored it's almost as if your calculations depend on Holmes missing 3 games while Holt stays injury free.

 

[CBower4545]

I would take Holmes and feel good about. Bruce leaving = more coverage. Holt is not the play maker he used to be, he is playing through pain. he will get plenty of targets but this is not "Greatest Show on Turf". Will Bulger stay healthy? The line needs to improve and Sjax needs to come back strong. Holt needs to stay on the field. Even in the best case, he is not as good nor is his offense as good as the one that allowed him to be one of the best in the game. Holmes at this point is just a better play maker. Pitt's offense has changed they have gone to more of a spread offense. the Offense is in good shape and in good hands. Holmes will get his looks.Holmes is young and there is reason to be optimistic that he can improve.

 

[Banger]

I've never been a fan of extrapolating by saying 'if a guy was healthy' or 'if you don't count the one TD run the guy broke'...

Year end stats are what they are.

Year end stats are worthless unless you are just playing a total point league with no head to head play in a league that does not allow for substitutes. Points per game is how I judge a player.

To me, it's a combination of both. PPG can be skewed based on limited opponents (Ronnie Brown) so you can't just take those figures without reading a little deeper as well.

For the most part I agree with you. In this case I feel the 13 games Holmes played was a sufficient amount of games to get an idea of his points per game. If a player plays a limited amount of games, such as Brown, I think you can look at his PPG production as a tool but when the sample size is limited you have to look closely at things such as one big game skewing the numbers. Also with RB's you have to factor in wear and tear. For instance Ryan Grant had a decent sample size of games played but he got the majority of his carries as the season wore on and he was fresh running against tired defenses. Which is why I would not expect him to average the same YPC as last year since he will now start the season on equal footing with the defense and is more likely to wear down as the season goes as he has not been a feature back for 16 games before.

To each their own but to me the problem with simply looking at year to date stats is you are basically assuming the games played is going to remain the same. For instance if you value Holt over Holmes because of total fantasy points scored it's almost as if your calculations depend on Holmes missing 3 games while Holt stays injury free.

Agreed and Grant is a great example. His SOS going down the stretch last year was great and one of the main reasons I made a move for him but that's a different thread...

 

[texasheat]

Holt will likely lead the NFL in targets this year, non-PPR or not, this makes your decision easy.

 

[travdogg]

The real question I have is how are either of these guys the best available option in the 3rd round? Surely there has to be other WR's available. I'd take Steve Smith if he falls(or Marshall for that matter) over either of these guys. To answer this one, its very close, but I'd lean ever so slightly in Holmes' direction, I just have a really bad feeling about the Rams in general and think these guys are close enough that it is better to shoot for the upside.

smith and mashall are both suspended if you haven't heard and that hurts there value.

I doubt either of them would have been available if they weren't.Really though there have to be better 3rd round options than Holt and Holmes. Are either of these guys top-10 WR's? They just seem to lack upside for 3rd round picks, 4th round sure, but 3rd seems high.

 

[Banger]

I would take Holmes and feel good about. Bruce leaving = more coverage. Holt is not the play maker he used to be, he is playing through pain. he will get plenty of targets but this is not "Greatest Show on Turf". Will Bulger stay healthy? The line needs to improve and Sjax needs to come back strong. Holt needs to stay on the field. Even in the best case, he is not as good nor is his offense as good as the one that allowed him to be one of the best in the game. Holmes at this point is just a better play maker. Pitt's offense has changed they have gone to more of a spread offense. the Offense is in good shape and in good hands. Holmes will get his looks.Holmes is young and there is reason to be optimistic that he can improve.

Ya but the line was AWFUL last year, Bulger didn't stay healthy, SJax didn't stay healthy, Holt had knee problems starting in training camp so essentially it was nearly a worst case scenario all around and he still finished 13th (to Holmes's 18th). Believe me, at this stage of the game Bruce wasn't taking any coverage off of Holt which is why he was cut. Their defense is going to be horrific so they will be throwing every game and he's the only reliable WR on the squad. On Pitt's side of the ball, I don't think Big Ben throws for 32 td's again and I think their line has taken a hit. I think Pitt was kind of a best case scenario passing wise last year while St. Louis was the worst case scenario and Holt still came out on top.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

I had both Holt and Holmes last year on one team.

Stats-wise I think it will be close between the two, but Holt is the more proven guy. Holmes is not used as a move-the-chains kind of WR, so he's going to see less targets than Holt. Holmes also scored most of his TDs on long bombs, so I can see him slipping back to 5-6 TDs this year as teams keep a better watch on letting him get behind them.

IMO, I'd be surprised if Holt scored 8+ TDs this year, but I feel safer projecting him with that number than I do with Holmes.

 

[the_sig]

I've never been a fan of extrapolating by saying 'if a guy was healthy' or 'if you don't count the one TD run the guy broke'...

Year end stats are what they are.

Year end stats are worthless unless you are just playing a total point league with no head to head play in a league that does not allow for substitutes. Points per game is how I judge a player.

My comment about stats 'being what they are' was more of a comment about my dislike of filling in data to make comparisons. In an earlier statement, you seemed to want to add in 3 games for Holmes to bolster your argument for him. I'm simply saying why? He didn't play those games, and we don't really know what his stats for those 3 games would have been if he'd played.If points per game is how you evaluate guys, I'm not sure I see a convincing argument PRO Holmes based on their 2007 non-PPR regular season stats: Holt = 10.05 ppg, Holmes = 10.23 ppg. I think others have observed that 2007 was a 'perfect storm' scenario against the Rams.

 

[menobrown]

I've never been a fan of extrapolating by saying 'if a guy was healthy' or 'if you don't count the one TD run the guy broke'...

Year end stats are what they are.

Year end stats are worthless unless you are just playing a total point league with no head to head play in a league that does not allow for substitutes. Points per game is how I judge a player.

My comment about stats 'being what they are' was more of a comment about my dislike of filling in data to make comparisons. In an earlier statement, you seemed to want to add in 3 games for Holmes to bolster your argument for him. I'm simply saying why? He didn't play those games, and we don't really know what his stats for those 3 games would have been if he'd played.

If points per game is how you evaluate guys, I'm not sure I see a convincing argument PRO Holmes based on their 2007 non-PPR regular season stats: Holt = 10.05 ppg, Holmes = 10.23 ppg. I think others have observed that 2007 was a 'perfect storm' scenario against the Rams.

No we don't know what Holmes would have done in those 3 games but it's safe to assume he would not have put up zero's which is basically what you calculating if YTD is your basis.As for the PPG stats for Holmes your numbers are wrong. Holmes had 143.9 fantasy points in 13 games which equals 11.06 which is a full point more than Holt on a lot less targets.

I'm not buying the perfect storm argument either. Using your own tool of YTD stats you would see Holt's numbers have declined 5 straight years and if you use PPG as I do his numbers have regressed 4 out of the last 5 years. I really like Torry Holt but all I see is a descending player.

 

[Andy Herron]

Holt will likely lead the NFL in targets this year, non-PPR or not, this makes your decision easy.

This is about where I stand, though I'm not sure about leading the league in targets. Maybe, maybe not.But to the point, Holt has been a constant for several years regardless of the surrounding circumstances, whereas Holmes may eventually get there (whenever Ward hangs'em up) but he's not there now.