RB RJ Harvey, DEN (2 Viewers)

[Instinctive]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

Big RJ Harvey fan, don't see Dobbins able to hold him off halfway thru the season

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

 

[Instinctive]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

Do you have any reasons or analysis behind it? It's hard to engage with a simple "I think this."

Why are you only projecting 15 games? Do you have a method of projecting game by game and a crystal ball algorithm or something for injuries?

 

[Bronco Billy]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

5.2 ypa? Whoa Nelly.

 

[Instinctive]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

5.2 ypa? Whoa Nelly.

Do you have any useful information or alternate perspectives to add?

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

Do you have any reasons or analysis behind it? It's hard to engage with a simple "I think this."

Why are you only projecting 15 games? Do you have a method of projecting game by game and a crystal ball algorithm or something for injuries?

For me I look at past usage and try to guesstimate future. But none of us know for sure. That’s why I value everyone’s opinion. But there is no scientific method to predict the future, especially with rookies.

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

Do you have any reasons or analysis behind it? It's hard to engage with a simple "I think this."

Why are you only projecting 15 games? Do you have a method of projecting game by game and a crystal ball algorithm or something for injuries?

For me I look at past usage and try to guesstimate future. But none of us know for sure. That’s why I value everyone’s opinion. But there is no scientific method to predict the future, especially with rookies.

As for the 15 games, size and usage leads to injury concerns. So I am guessing that he misses a couple games.

 

[Instinctive]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

Do you have any reasons or analysis behind it? It's hard to engage with a simple "I think this."

Why are you only projecting 15 games? Do you have a method of projecting game by game and a crystal ball algorithm or something for injuries?

For me I look at past usage and try to guesstimate future. But none of us know for sure. That’s why I value everyone’s opinion. But there is no scientific method to predict the future, especially with rookies.

Maybe I'm not asking the right question: what about past usage led you to this YPC, this target share, etc? Has he had a high target share or earned 3D roles in the last that I missed? Unless I totally blanked, I think that would be WAY more passing game usage than Dobbins has ever seen. I'm basically trying to check: did you find or have info I didn't and I should adjust and learn, or do I think it's a "random" guess backed by your guy and not much evidence (that sounds harsh when I read it, but I say it with no tone, like a robot. I'm just a guy who wants to make data backed decisions).


I know I just disagree with lots of people on injuries. I think it's silly to guess at them. Ok average everyone misses some games. I'm not going to make it harder to compare per game stuff by predicting who's gonna get hurt and how badly. It's not productive.

 

[Instinctive]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

Do you have any reasons or analysis behind it? It's hard to engage with a simple "I think this."

Why are you only projecting 15 games? Do you have a method of projecting game by game and a crystal ball algorithm or something for injuries?

For me I look at past usage and try to guesstimate future. But none of us know for sure. That’s why I value everyone’s opinion. But there is no scientific method to predict the future, especially with rookies.

Maybe I'm not asking the right question: what about past usage led you to this YPC, this target share, etc? Has he had a high target share or earned 3D roles in the last that I missed? Unless I totally blanked, I think that would be WAY more passing game usage than Dobbins has ever seen. I'm basically trying to check: did you find or have info I didn't and I should adjust and learn, or do I think it's a "random" guess backed by your guy and not much evidence (that sounds harsh when I read it, but I say it with no tone, like a robot. I'm just a guy who wants to make data backed decisions).


I know I just disagree with lots of people on injuries. I think it's silly to guess at them. Ok average everyone misses some games. I'm not going to make it harder to compare per game stuff by predicting who's gonna get hurt and how badly. It's not productive.

And FWIW I do this with clients all the time. Why do you think that? I just know. Ok but how do you know? Well last time this happened and it didn't work. Ok why didn't it work? And so on and so on.

EVERYONE is using data and experience. The difference is a level of awareness. The brain makes shortcuts where if you examine the assumptions underlying expertise or an instinct, we sometimes find one we want to adjust that changes the end answer.

I do my best to skip right to that. Like some guy upthread had a useless comment about the Harvey YPC projection. But that's backed by his college stats, explosiveness, Denver's OL grades, their run schedule (and especially explosive run defense projections for who they face), history of rookie RBs with a similar profile, history of rookie RBs with Payton as playcaller and designer, and on and on. It's kind of like Henry last year (I think I put him at close to 6 YPC and got blasted, but he went from 4.4 with the fewest yards before contact to a team that was top 3 in yards before contact, so I added about 50% of the difference and turns out he had 5.9 YPC!).

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

Do you have any reasons or analysis behind it? It's hard to engage with a simple "I think this."

Why are you only projecting 15 games? Do you have a method of projecting game by game and a crystal ball algorithm or something for injuries?

For me I look at past usage and try to guesstimate future. But none of us know for sure. That’s why I value everyone’s opinion. But there is no scientific method to predict the future, especially with rookies.

Maybe I'm not asking the right question: what about past usage led you to this YPC, this target share, etc? Has he had a high target share or earned 3D roles in the last that I missed? Unless I totally blanked, I think that would be WAY more passing game usage than Dobbins has ever seen. I'm basically trying to check: did you find or have info I didn't and I should adjust and learn, or do I think it's a "random" guess backed by your guy and not much evidence (that sounds harsh when I read it, but I say it with no tone, like a robot. I'm just a guy who wants to make data backed decisions).


I know I just disagree with lots of people on injuries. I think it's silly to guess at them. Ok average everyone misses some games. I'm not going to make it harder to compare per game stuff by predicting who's gonna get hurt and how badly. It's not productive.

Good points all. I don’t use microanalytics in my analysis. When I was growing up in this game, they didn’t exist and, frankly, I don’t really know how predictive they are. No Dobbins doesn’t have a reputation as a pass catching back. But he’s on a team with a QB and coach who utilize the back in the passing game more than his previous location. And he had career highs last year. It’s all an estimate and could be wildly wrong but I believe it’s probably close. I’m willing to listen to your estimates. Again, at this point we are all guessing.

 

[Judge Smails]

I care more about TDs than receptions. Who gets the goal line work and is Rj effective there? We know Dobbins is good down there

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

I worry about his ability to stay on the field. His rookie year he played in 15 games, but only started one. He caught Covid but was only down for a couple weeks. He lost his entire second year to a knee injury. His third year he missed the first two games from that knee injury, played four weeks, but then had another injury to his knee that took him out. In his fourth year, he hurt his knee again in the first game. And then last year he had an MCL sprain in the midseason.

He just hasn’t really had a fully healthy season yet.

 

[SanDawg]

I worry about his ability to stay on the field. His rookie year he played in 15 games, but only started one. He caught Covid but was only down for a couple weeks. He lost his entire second year to a knee injury. His third year he missed the first two games from that knee injury, played four weeks, but then had another injury to his knee that took him out. In his fourth year, he hurt his knee again in the first game. And then last year he had an MCL sprain in the midseason.

He just hasn’t really had a fully healthy season yet.

We expect that to happen this year? Once the knees go man they go....

 

[Bronco Billy]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

Do you have any reasons or analysis behind it? It's hard to engage with a simple "I think this."

Why are you only projecting 15 games? Do you have a method of projecting game by game and a crystal ball algorithm or something for injuries?

For me I look at past usage and try to guesstimate future. But none of us know for sure. That’s why I value everyone’s opinion. But there is no scientific method to predict the future, especially with rookies.

Maybe I'm not asking the right question: what about past usage led you to this YPC, this target share, etc? Has he had a high target share or earned 3D roles in the last that I missed? Unless I totally blanked, I think that would be WAY more passing game usage than Dobbins has ever seen. I'm basically trying to check: did you find or have info I didn't and I should adjust and learn, or do I think it's a "random" guess backed by your guy and not much evidence (that sounds harsh when I read it, but I say it with no tone, like a robot. I'm just a guy who wants to make data backed decisions).


I know I just disagree with lots of people on injuries. I think it's silly to guess at them. Ok average everyone misses some games. I'm not going to make it harder to compare per game stuff by predicting who's gonna get hurt and how badly. It's not productive.

And FWIW I do this with clients all the time. Why do you think that? I just know. Ok but how do you know? Well last time this happened and it didn't work. Ok why didn't it work? And so on and so on.

EVERYONE is using data and experience. The difference is a level of awareness. The brain makes shortcuts where if you examine the assumptions underlying expertise or an instinct, we sometimes find one we want to adjust that changes the end answer.

I do my best to skip right to that. Like some guy upthread had a useless comment about the Harvey YPC projection. But that's backed by his college stats, explosiveness, Denver's OL grades, their run schedule (and especially explosive run defense projections for who they face), history of rookie RBs with a similar profile, history of rookie RBs with Payton as playcaller and designer, and on and on. It's kind of like Henry last year (I think I put him at close to 6 YPC and got blasted, but he went from 4.4 with the fewest yards before contact to a team that was top 3 in yards before contact, so I added about 50% of the difference and turns out he had 5.9 YPC!).

As the “some guy upthread” whose self explanatory comment seems to stick in your craw so badly, I’m thinking it shows a lack of awareness when someone projecting apparently doesn’t realize that they are projecting elite level production. On the other hand, perhaps you are intentionally projecting elite production and his stats this year may prove you out, but that doesn’t stop the projected rushing average from jumping off the page. Hence the comment that I felt spoke for itself.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

Do you have any reasons or analysis behind it? It's hard to engage with a simple "I think this."

Why are you only projecting 15 games? Do you have a method of projecting game by game and a crystal ball algorithm or something for injuries?

For me I look at past usage and try to guesstimate future. But none of us know for sure. That’s why I value everyone’s opinion. But there is no scientific method to predict the future, especially with rookies.

Maybe I'm not asking the right question: what about past usage led you to this YPC, this target share, etc? Has he had a high target share or earned 3D roles in the last that I missed? Unless I totally blanked, I think that would be WAY more passing game usage than Dobbins has ever seen. I'm basically trying to check: did you find or have info I didn't and I should adjust and learn, or do I think it's a "random" guess backed by your guy and not much evidence (that sounds harsh when I read it, but I say it with no tone, like a robot. I'm just a guy who wants to make data backed decisions).


I know I just disagree with lots of people on injuries. I think it's silly to guess at them. Ok average everyone misses some games. I'm not going to make it harder to compare per game stuff by predicting who's gonna get hurt and how badly. It's not productive.

And FWIW I do this with clients all the time. Why do you think that? I just know. Ok but how do you know? Well last time this happened and it didn't work. Ok why didn't it work? And so on and so on.

EVERYONE is using data and experience. The difference is a level of awareness. The brain makes shortcuts where if you examine the assumptions underlying expertise or an instinct, we sometimes find one we want to adjust that changes the end answer.

I do my best to skip right to that. Like some guy upthread had a useless comment about the Harvey YPC projection. But that's backed by his college stats, explosiveness, Denver's OL grades, their run schedule (and especially explosive run defense projections for who they face), history of rookie RBs with a similar profile, history of rookie RBs with Payton as playcaller and designer, and on and on. It's kind of like Henry last year (I think I put him at close to 6 YPC and got blasted, but he went from 4.4 with the fewest yards before contact to a team that was top 3 in yards before contact, so I added about 50% of the difference and turns out he had 5.9 YPC!).

As the “some guy upthread” whose self explanatory comment seems to stick in your craw so badly, I’m thinking it shows a lack of awareness when someone projecting apparently doesn’t realize that they are projecting elite level production. On the other hand, perhaps you are intentionally projecting elite production and his stats this year may prove you out, but that doesn’t stop the projected rushing average from jumping off the page. Hence the comment that I felt spoke for itself.

It doesn’t speak for itself. And you still haven’t fully answered the question.

People thought that J Gibbs rookie projections were insane — and then he delivered 1260 yds and 11 TDs.

What stood out to me on the Harvey projections were a) ypc of 5.2 is very high compared to basically any historical avg, b) 92 targets is a lot for any RB, let alone a rookie who may or may not be reliable in pass protection.

Despite that, with minimal competition (is JK Dobbins super reliable?), with the 2nd round draft capital, and with Payton’s historical usage of two RBs, it isn’t remotely crazy to project 1100-1250 total yds and 6-8 TDs.

I’m lazy, but despite that will go dig up my analysis from before J Gibbs rookie year and will re-post it here.

 

[Instinctive]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

Do you have any reasons or analysis behind it? It's hard to engage with a simple "I think this."

Why are you only projecting 15 games? Do you have a method of projecting game by game and a crystal ball algorithm or something for injuries?

For me I look at past usage and try to guesstimate future. But none of us know for sure. That’s why I value everyone’s opinion. But there is no scientific method to predict the future, especially with rookies.

Maybe I'm not asking the right question: what about past usage led you to this YPC, this target share, etc? Has he had a high target share or earned 3D roles in the last that I missed? Unless I totally blanked, I think that would be WAY more passing game usage than Dobbins has ever seen. I'm basically trying to check: did you find or have info I didn't and I should adjust and learn, or do I think it's a "random" guess backed by your guy and not much evidence (that sounds harsh when I read it, but I say it with no tone, like a robot. I'm just a guy who wants to make data backed decisions).


I know I just disagree with lots of people on injuries. I think it's silly to guess at them. Ok average everyone misses some games. I'm not going to make it harder to compare per game stuff by predicting who's gonna get hurt and how badly. It's not productive.

And FWIW I do this with clients all the time. Why do you think that? I just know. Ok but how do you know? Well last time this happened and it didn't work. Ok why didn't it work? And so on and so on.

EVERYONE is using data and experience. The difference is a level of awareness. The brain makes shortcuts where if you examine the assumptions underlying expertise or an instinct, we sometimes find one we want to adjust that changes the end answer.

I do my best to skip right to that. Like some guy upthread had a useless comment about the Harvey YPC projection. But that's backed by his college stats, explosiveness, Denver's OL grades, their run schedule (and especially explosive run defense projections for who they face), history of rookie RBs with a similar profile, history of rookie RBs with Payton as playcaller and designer, and on and on. It's kind of like Henry last year (I think I put him at close to 6 YPC and got blasted, but he went from 4.4 with the fewest yards before contact to a team that was top 3 in yards before contact, so I added about 50% of the difference and turns out he had 5.9 YPC!).

As the “some guy upthread” whose self explanatory comment seems to stick in your craw so badly, I’m thinking it shows a lack of awareness when someone projecting apparently doesn’t realize that they are projecting elite level production. On the other hand, perhaps you are intentionally projecting elite production and his stats this year may prove you out, but that doesn’t stop the projected rushing average from jumping off the page. Hence the comment that I felt spoke for itself.

It doesn’t speak for itself. And you still haven’t fully answered the question.

People thought that J Gibbs rookie projections were insane — and then he delivered 1260 yds and 11 TDs.

What stood out to me on the Harvey projections were a) ypc of 5.2 is very high compared to basically any historical avg, b) 92 targets is a lot for any RB, let alone a rookie who may or may not be reliable in pass protection.

Despite that, with minimal competition (is JK Dobbins super reliable?), with the 2nd round draft capital, and with Payton’s historical usage of two RBs, it isn’t remotely crazy to project 1100-1250 total yds and 6-8 TDs.

I’m lazy, but despite that will go dig up my analysis from before J Gibbs rookie year and will re-post it here.

Yeah, he just doubled down on not providing any useful info. And trying to insinuate a lack of awareness. Whether its high or not is not data really. Tell me why it shouldn't be high. i think I wrote out like a dozen factors as to how it ended up being so high, so if someone wants to point out why any of those assumptions would be wrong, great. Otherwise, it's just a silly (possibly hot) take.

Which is fine, it's a message board. But I don't really understand why you'd reply at all if you aren't:

a. seeking to learn more about the player because the projection is so different from yours and you want to check your priors (no questions, no follow up, so i don't think this was it)
b. feel like you have a much better projection and want to explain why to help your fellow man (no counterpoints offered, so it doesn't seem like this was it)
c. you're bored and don't have anything to add but wanted to say something (even the follow up is awful. It's this weird mix of insulting tone while still providing no useful information and putting a bunch of perspective and thoughts into my writing, plus it seems like some sort of assumed tone).

Given it definitely isn't a or b, I have to assume it's c. But maybe there's a d I'm not thinking of.

To try and give a good faith response to what comes off to me like a person starting an argument (multiple phrases that seem a little aggressive or impolite, no actual counterpoints to anything, an argument based on the person making it and not any commentary on the projection or its underlying assumptions):

1. Nothing is "stuck in my craw" lmao I simply stated what is true
2. I am not unaware that its a high projection
3. I'm not intentionally projecting anyone to do anything. I am looking at data team by team and projecting what I think will happen for every fantasy relevant player, as I do every year.
4. Just so we're clear, the comment did speak for itself. it said "I have nothing useful to add but am pointing out that seems high." So what? Wasted all our time posting it, reading it, and then following up with a still mostly not additive paragraph of slop.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Here is my commentary from page 14 of the Jahmyr Gibbs thread, before the 2023 season:

Ok, based on Campbell’s comments I looked at 3 time periods, covering 7 seasons. These were all so-called “thunder and lightning” timeshares. I could have included Detroit for the past two seasons, but my intent here is to look for possible guidance in the comparisons Dan Campbell himself offered up.

The following were included:
2000-2002 when Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne (on Wisconsin!!) shared a backfield

2017-18 Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram

2019-20 Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray


Over those 7 seasons:
“Lightning” averaged 194 carries for 943 yards and 9 TDs, 77 catches for 674 yards and 3 TDs. This equates to 232 fantasy points, standard scoring (non-PPR).

“Thunder” averaged 170 carries for 707 yards and 6 TDs, 23 catches for 161 yards and 0.4 TDs. This equates to 125 fantasy points, standard scoring (non-PPR).

The worst season for the Lightning role was either 2001 Tiki Barber or 2019 Alvin Kamara. The average of those seasons was 169 carries for 831 yards and 4.5 TDs, 77 catches for 555 yards and 0.5 TDs. This was good for 169 fantasy points.

There wasn’t a single season where Thunder outscored Lightning. The closest was 2017 when Kamara had 1592 total yards and 18 TDs, M Ingram had 1540 total yards and 12 TDs. The next closest was 2019, but Murray had 46 fewer points than Kamara that year (and 460 fewer yards, same TD total).

Does any of the above mean that J Gibbs will outscore Montgomery this year? Or that J Gibbs will be RB1? Nope. Just sharing some data for historical context. Again, looking at Detroit under Campbell could be a good counterbalance

 

[Bronco Billy]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

Do you have any reasons or analysis behind it? It's hard to engage with a simple "I think this."

Why are you only projecting 15 games? Do you have a method of projecting game by game and a crystal ball algorithm or something for injuries?

For me I look at past usage and try to guesstimate future. But none of us know for sure. That’s why I value everyone’s opinion. But there is no scientific method to predict the future, especially with rookies.

Maybe I'm not asking the right question: what about past usage led you to this YPC, this target share, etc? Has he had a high target share or earned 3D roles in the last that I missed? Unless I totally blanked, I think that would be WAY more passing game usage than Dobbins has ever seen. I'm basically trying to check: did you find or have info I didn't and I should adjust and learn, or do I think it's a "random" guess backed by your guy and not much evidence (that sounds harsh when I read it, but I say it with no tone, like a robot. I'm just a guy who wants to make data backed decisions).


I know I just disagree with lots of people on injuries. I think it's silly to guess at them. Ok average everyone misses some games. I'm not going to make it harder to compare per game stuff by predicting who's gonna get hurt and how badly. It's not productive.

And FWIW I do this with clients all the time. Why do you think that? I just know. Ok but how do you know? Well last time this happened and it didn't work. Ok why didn't it work? And so on and so on.

EVERYONE is using data and experience. The difference is a level of awareness. The brain makes shortcuts where if you examine the assumptions underlying expertise or an instinct, we sometimes find one we want to adjust that changes the end answer.

I do my best to skip right to that. Like some guy upthread had a useless comment about the Harvey YPC projection. But that's backed by his college stats, explosiveness, Denver's OL grades, their run schedule (and especially explosive run defense projections for who they face), history of rookie RBs with a similar profile, history of rookie RBs with Payton as playcaller and designer, and on and on. It's kind of like Henry last year (I think I put him at close to 6 YPC and got blasted, but he went from 4.4 with the fewest yards before contact to a team that was top 3 in yards before contact, so I added about 50% of the difference and turns out he had 5.9 YPC!).

As the “some guy upthread” whose self explanatory comment seems to stick in your craw so badly, I’m thinking it shows a lack of awareness when someone projecting apparently doesn’t realize that they are projecting elite level production. On the other hand, perhaps you are intentionally projecting elite production and his stats this year may prove you out, but that doesn’t stop the projected rushing average from jumping off the page. Hence the comment that I felt spoke for itself.

It doesn’t speak for itself. And you still haven’t fully answered the question.

People thought that J Gibbs rookie projections were insane — and then he delivered 1260 yds and 11 TDs.

What stood out to me on the Harvey projections were a) ypc of 5.2 is very high compared to basically any historical avg, b) 92 targets is a lot for any RB, let alone a rookie who may or may not be reliable in pass protection.

Despite that, with minimal competition (is JK Dobbins super reliable?), with the 2nd round draft capital, and with Payton’s historical usage of two RBs, it isn’t remotely crazy to project 1100-1250 total yds and 6-8 TDs.

I’m lazy, but despite that will go dig up my analysis from before J Gibbs rookie year and will re-post it here.

I think you bring up valid points. I think your yardage totals and TDs may be realistic IF he is the lead back in the backfield, but that would simultaneously imply a significantly higher workload in addition to your concerns above.

And in speaking for itself, you sure seemed to understand it without further supporting verbage.

I’m really not interested in drilling down on projecting. I just saw a number that projects an elite level of production and made what I thought was an overt comment of an observation of same. I had no idea that I needed to provide a thesis to support that observation. And with that, I’ve already invested way too much time and effort on something that needlessly got blown up into something it didn’t need to be.

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

Current projection, first pass:

163 carries (30%) for 849/5 with 92 targets (17%) for 74/601/3

That's pretty bold. That would have been RB7 last season, and with some extremely high efficiency. Basically, De'Von Achane with a couple less TDs, and more big plays. Achane was the only RB worth more than 74 catches last season.

I'm pretty high on Harvey myself (I actually think you are low on the carries) but I have a really hard time calling him a solid RB1 in fantasy, which is what those numbers would be. Love seeing projections though.

I'm only through Det in projections (alpha by city) so I've got ~20 teams still.

One thing to remember in projections, as always, is we project full seasons (I do at least) and then some people always get hurt.

Only 30% of the carries behind the top OLine in the league. 17% target share would be 1.7% and 3% less than Reggie B and Kamara, the last two pass oriented explosive RBs drafted highly by Payton.

Will see how it shakes out when i do the rest of this, but I have Dobbins with like 245 carries of his own.

I don’t see Dobbins getting that many. Last year he got 195, by far his heaviest workload and he missed four games. I think Payton tries to limit him to about 15 touches per game (and 4-5 of those will be receptions).

5 receptions a game for Dobbins would be over 100 targets. If that's what you think he's gonna get, he should be a 3rd rounder easily.

That's funny

I mean 5 receptions a game is more than I just projected for Harvey and got all this engagement.

I'm not saying it's impossible. It would be around a 19% target share by my projected plays and run pass splits. But it would mean a weird reversal of who we expect to get the targets. I'd love to know the evidence - maybe I missed something from training camp or how Dobbins usually excels at receiving.

Always looking to learn more and refine the process.

I think 150 carries and 60 receptions in 15 games is realistic even with Harvey getting the bulk of the work. If they match last year they will have over 420 rushing attempts. 150 for Dobbins leaves about 240 for Harvey. And that’s if they match last year.

I don't want him abused so if you say 240/150, I'm OK with like 210/180 in favor of Harvey, I also feel strongly he will be the RB of choice for passing situations as the season unfolds
Big Harvey fan, haven't gotten him in every league but I have several redrafts coming up and plan on taking him as early as need be so I have at least a couple shares of him
Hot stock right now along with Trey Henderson, both look the part

Do you have any reasons or analysis behind it? It's hard to engage with a simple "I think this."

Why are you only projecting 15 games? Do you have a method of projecting game by game and a crystal ball algorithm or something for injuries?

For me I look at past usage and try to guesstimate future. But none of us know for sure. That’s why I value everyone’s opinion. But there is no scientific method to predict the future, especially with rookies.

Maybe I'm not asking the right question: what about past usage led you to this YPC, this target share, etc? Has he had a high target share or earned 3D roles in the last that I missed? Unless I totally blanked, I think that would be WAY more passing game usage than Dobbins has ever seen. I'm basically trying to check: did you find or have info I didn't and I should adjust and learn, or do I think it's a "random" guess backed by your guy and not much evidence (that sounds harsh when I read it, but I say it with no tone, like a robot. I'm just a guy who wants to make data backed decisions).


I know I just disagree with lots of people on injuries. I think it's silly to guess at them. Ok average everyone misses some games. I'm not going to make it harder to compare per game stuff by predicting who's gonna get hurt and how badly. It's not productive.

And FWIW I do this with clients all the time. Why do you think that? I just know. Ok but how do you know? Well last time this happened and it didn't work. Ok why didn't it work? And so on and so on.

EVERYONE is using data and experience. The difference is a level of awareness. The brain makes shortcuts where if you examine the assumptions underlying expertise or an instinct, we sometimes find one we want to adjust that changes the end answer.

I do my best to skip right to that. Like some guy upthread had a useless comment about the Harvey YPC projection. But that's backed by his college stats, explosiveness, Denver's OL grades, their run schedule (and especially explosive run defense projections for who they face), history of rookie RBs with a similar profile, history of rookie RBs with Payton as playcaller and designer, and on and on. It's kind of like Henry last year (I think I put him at close to 6 YPC and got blasted, but he went from 4.4 with the fewest yards before contact to a team that was top 3 in yards before contact, so I added about 50% of the difference and turns out he had 5.9 YPC!).

As the “some guy upthread” whose self explanatory comment seems to stick in your craw so badly, I’m thinking it shows a lack of awareness when someone projecting apparently doesn’t realize that they are projecting elite level production. On the other hand, perhaps you are intentionally projecting elite production and his stats this year may prove you out, but that doesn’t stop the projected rushing average from jumping off the page. Hence the comment that I felt spoke for itself.

Nothing that has been said in this entire thread has “stuck in Mr craw” - I don’t believe I am more right or wrong than anyone else. I state my opinion but understand that it is an opinion. 60 receptions would be huge for JK. So would 15 games played. I could be way off on both projections. I doubt that I’ll be spot on. We’ll see but I recommend everyone to get as many opinions as possible and then make their own projections and decisions. Your team, your choice.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Well, I just got sniped hard in my draft and missed out on Trey Heno and now have my first share of Harvey as my RB2. I have JK Dobbins in two places already so I guess having some Harvey will be interesting.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I care more about TDs than receptions. Who gets the goal line work and is Rj effective there? We know Dobbins is good down there

42 TDs his last 25 starts in college
They weren't pulling him near the end zone for a better more capable RB
NFL/Pro different story and level of competition but there is nothing that suggests Harvey is incapable of goal line work

I thought Harvey played with the starters 1st preseason game, was kind of telling I thought.

@Instinctive to better answer the question you asked earlier, I don't have any data but Dobbins is far from an explosive RB
I believe they will split a lot of touches in September but by late October/early November it's going to be Harvey as he gains more and more trust
For me it's not about Week 1 but more about Week 8 and Week 12, I just don't see why they would overload Dobbins, he'll be lucky in split time if he doesn't get injured again
Dobbins has had a lot of injuries and they take their toll over time.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Broncos Rookie 2nd-Round Pick Called ‘Secret’ Weapon After Turning Heads

Denver Broncos rookie second-round draft pick and running back RJ Harvey turned heads this offseason, and that bodes well for QB Bo Nix.

heavy.com

 

[Ministry of Pain]

“It just feels normal”: Why RJ Harvey wasn’t too excited after his first touchdown for the Denver Broncos - DNVR Sports

Denver Broncos rookie running back RJ Harvey scored his first NFL touchdown on Sunday... but he wasn't too fired up about it.

thednvr.com

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I think Dobbins has a clear advantage in pass pro and has demonstrated good vision and power, leading to very good numbers in terms of efficiency.

5.2 is way above the league average of 4.4.

Not sure if I'd characterize him as explosive as an athlete but 4.44 40 is pretty good.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Well, I just got sniped hard in my draft and missed out on Trey Heno and now have my first share of Harvey as my RB2. I have JK Dobbins in two places already so I guess having some Harvey will be interesting.

Definitely drafted by about the middle-late 5th round and I've seen him taken in the late 4th now

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I have Dobbins in two places (FBG as my RB3/4) and one of my dynos as my RB3/4. I'm not counting on him as other than a flex/ injury week guy.

But now I'm featuring Harvey as my RB2 in a keep 3 so I'm all in baby!

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Well, I just got sniped hard in my draft and missed out on Trey Heno and now have my first share of Harvey as my RB2. I have JK Dobbins in two places already so I guess having some Harvey will be interesting.

Definitely drafted by about the middle-late 5th round and I've seen him taken in the late 4th now

It's a superflex and he went as RB17 (Hendo, 6.05) with my Harvey pick at RB18 (6.07). It's a really neato format. It's the low QB scoring (4pt TDs and 1/25yds). start Q,R,R,W,W,T, SF with the PPR ramping up from 0.5 RB/ 1.0 WR and 1.5 TE. Makes the spreadsheet really important IMO because the positional replacement values are all over the map.

Anyway, one guy is going to be waiting for 15 more picks and still doesn't have a 2nd RB or a 2nd QB but damnit he's got 3 WRs. lol.
I can see punting on TE but we have some folks punting on QB and RB. I don't get it. Thankfully lots of wacky things happen in ff.

I had cleared the last guy that needed a 2nd RB who needed a RB and had two picks before me, both of which needed QBs and TEs, both of which had 2 RBs and much to my surprise my guy picked him up. I don't blame him but didn't see it coming and already had visions of Treyvon dancing in my head. Ouch! That's the great part of being in 6 leagues. Lots of guys to root for. I'll be gunning for Treyvon in my family league because one share is not enough.

How about that Harvey kid! He's going to be the KW3 of the Broncos

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Dude went at 1.7 right in front of my pick 1.8 (blah)

 

[H8fulHuck]

Great discussions here. RJ is an interesting prospect but I have serious concerns with his transition from UCF to the NFL.

Talking 2024 numbers only

• LOW Yards after contact vs lesser competition is a serious red flag
• 20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college
• Doesn’t run with power
• As a receiver, he’s a liability. 3.4 ypr and only 10.3% missed tackle rate.
• Pass protection is always a concern with rookies, but RJ is one of the worst overall prospects both level of effort and effectiveness blocking for his QB.

Rookie year, I think the coach will give RJ some first and second down work. Give his 2nd round pick opportunities to bust some runs and develop.

Good news for those of you who disagree with me… I’m wrong… a lot. Super cool being in the minority on this one. I am fading RJ and heavily invested in Dobbins.

This is a great community and felt it appropriate to share my thoughts and reasoning. After seeing some elite projection numbers tossed out, please go back and watch some film or check receiving stats in particular. It’s highly unlikely RJ will earn many targets until he improves.

 

[Instinctive]

Great discussions here. RJ is an interesting prospect but I have serious concerns with his transition from UCF to the NFL.

Talking 2024 numbers only

• LOW Yards after contact vs lesser competition is a serious red flag
• 20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college
• Doesn’t run with power
• As a receiver, he’s a liability. 3.4 ypr and only 10.3% missed tackle rate.
• Pass protection is always a concern with rookies, but RJ is one of the worst overall prospects both level of effort and effectiveness blocking for his QB.

Rookie year, I think the coach will give RJ some first and second down work. Give his 2nd round pick opportunities to bust some runs and develop.

Good news for those of you who disagree with me… I’m wrong… a lot. Super cool being in the minority on this one. I am fading RJ and heavily invested in Dobbins.

This is a great community and felt it appropriate to share my thoughts and reasoning. After seeing some elite projection numbers tossed out, please go back and watch some film or check receiving stats in particular. It’s highly unlikely RJ will earn many targets until he improves.

Bookmarking this for round 2. I mostly ignore college stats and go close to fully baked on coach and historical trends and draft capital, but this is pretty relevant.

 

[Instinctive]

Great discussions here. RJ is an interesting prospect but I have serious concerns with his transition from UCF to the NFL.

Talking 2024 numbers only

• LOW Yards after contact vs lesser competition is a serious red flag
• 20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college
• Doesn’t run with power
• As a receiver, he’s a liability. 3.4 ypr and only 10.3% missed tackle rate.
• Pass protection is always a concern with rookies, but RJ is one of the worst overall prospects both level of effort and effectiveness blocking for his QB.

Rookie year, I think the coach will give RJ some first and second down work. Give his 2nd round pick opportunities to bust some runs and develop.

Good news for those of you who disagree with me… I’m wrong… a lot. Super cool being in the minority on this one. I am fading RJ and heavily invested in Dobbins.

This is a great community and felt it appropriate to share my thoughts and reasoning. After seeing some elite projection numbers tossed out, please go back and watch some film or check receiving stats in particular. It’s highly unlikely RJ will earn many targets until he improves.

Bookmarking this for round 2. I mostly ignore college stats and go close to fully baked on coach and historical trends and drat capital, but this is pretty relevant.

Where did you get 3.4 YPR? I'm seeing 13.4 - you may have lost the extra 1 somewhere

 

[creepythinman]

Great discussions here. RJ is an interesting prospect but I have serious concerns with his transition from UCF to the NFL.

Talking 2024 numbers only

• LOW Yards after contact vs lesser competition is a serious red flag
• 20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college
• Doesn’t run with power
• As a receiver, he’s a liability. 3.4 ypr and only 10.3% missed tackle rate.
• Pass protection is always a concern with rookies, but RJ is one of the worst overall prospects both level of effort and effectiveness blocking for his QB.

Rookie year, I think the coach will give RJ some first and second down work. Give his 2nd round pick opportunities to bust some runs and develop.

Good news for those of you who disagree with me… I’m wrong… a lot. Super cool being in the minority on this one. I am fading RJ and heavily invested in Dobbins.

This is a great community and felt it appropriate to share my thoughts and reasoning. After seeing some elite projection numbers tossed out, please go back and watch some film or check receiving stats in particular. It’s highly unlikely RJ will earn many targets until he improves.

Bookmarking this for round 2. I mostly ignore college stats and go close to fully baked on coach and historical trends and drat capital, but this is pretty relevant.

Where did you get 3.4 YPR? I'm seeing 13.4 - you may have lost the extra 1 somewhere

Most of his stats are wrong. So wrong that I question the motivation for his post.

As you mentioned, Harvey averaged 13.4 ypr last season -- averaged 11.8 ypr for his college career. Not "3.4 ypr."

"20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college." Harvey averaged over .31 MTF per touch (31%) over his 3 seasons. In comparison, Omarion Hampton's career high was 0.295 MTF per touch.

"LOW Yards after contact?" Harvey led all rookie RBs in (1) missed tackles forced on inside runs (50 MTF); and (2) yards after contact on inside runs (559 yds - yes more than Jeanty). Kinda hard to do both for a weak and non-elusive RB that Huck claims he is.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not sure if I'd characterize him as explosive as an athlete but 4.44 40 is pretty good.

That’s true, but Dobbins is also turning 27 in December, and that 4.44 40-time was 5 years and quite a few injuries ago. And his injuries all happen to be to the same leg, with an ACL sprain, an Achilles tear, a torn ACL, a meniscus trim, a torn LCL, and a torn hammy.

Now I’m no big city orthopedic surgeon, but I’d be willing to wager he’d be somewhat shy of 4.44 were he to run a 40 today.

He also broke his fibula in 2016. The man’s right leg has just been rebelling against him for 9 years.

To his credit, he works his butt off and gets back to football, but there’s no way he’s as fast as he was at the combine 5 years later even without all those significant injuries.

That said, he’s probably still fast compared to other NFL RBs.

 

[Soulfly3]

I care more about TDs than receptions. Who gets the goal line work and is Rj effective there? We know Dobbins is good down there

I thought Harvey played with the starters 1st preseason game, was kind of telling I thought.

He did, but it was because another RB on the roster couldn't find his helmet to start the game.
True story.

 

[kutta]

Great discussions here. RJ is an interesting prospect but I have serious concerns with his transition from UCF to the NFL.

Talking 2024 numbers only

• LOW Yards after contact vs lesser competition is a serious red flag
• 20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college
• Doesn’t run with power
• As a receiver, he’s a liability. 3.4 ypr and only 10.3% missed tackle rate.
• Pass protection is always a concern with rookies, but RJ is one of the worst overall prospects both level of effort and effectiveness blocking for his QB.

Rookie year, I think the coach will give RJ some first and second down work. Give his 2nd round pick opportunities to bust some runs and develop.

Good news for those of you who disagree with me… I’m wrong… a lot. Super cool being in the minority on this one. I am fading RJ and heavily invested in Dobbins.

This is a great community and felt it appropriate to share my thoughts and reasoning. After seeing some elite projection numbers tossed out, please go back and watch some film or check receiving stats in particular. It’s highly unlikely RJ will earn many targets until he improves.

Others have already pointed it out. I’m just providing links. Can you explain the 3.4 yards per reception?

R.J. Harvey College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Check out R.J. Harvey's College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits and More College Stats at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

[td]

61​

[/td][td]

720​

[/td]​

That’s college career receptions and yards which equates to 11.8 YPR, not the 3.4 you state.

Do you have another source, or was that an error?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Executive Summary:
Harvey = Sproles. Dobbins = Ingram. Both will crush ADP.

 

[Soulfly3]

Executive Summary:
Harvey = Sproles.

only in age.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Executive Summary:
Harvey = Sproles. Dobbins = Ingram. Both will crush ADP.

You misspelled Kamara as Sproles

 

[Instinctive]

Great discussions here. RJ is an interesting prospect but I have serious concerns with his transition from UCF to the NFL.

Talking 2024 numbers only

• LOW Yards after contact vs lesser competition is a serious red flag
• 20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college
• Doesn’t run with power
• As a receiver, he’s a liability. 3.4 ypr and only 10.3% missed tackle rate.
• Pass protection is always a concern with rookies, but RJ is one of the worst overall prospects both level of effort and effectiveness blocking for his QB.

Rookie year, I think the coach will give RJ some first and second down work. Give his 2nd round pick opportunities to bust some runs and develop.

Good news for those of you who disagree with me… I’m wrong… a lot. Super cool being in the minority on this one. I am fading RJ and heavily invested in Dobbins.

This is a great community and felt it appropriate to share my thoughts and reasoning. After seeing some elite projection numbers tossed out, please go back and watch some film or check receiving stats in particular. It’s highly unlikely RJ will earn many targets until he improves.

Just so everyone can see a singular response:

I've now tried to validate everything in this post. The data is wrong on every single bullet.

However, I compiled some pass protection stuff (harder because it's more eyes and words than it is stats) and it seems like Harvey is about as good in pass pro as Gibbs and Reggie B were.

Player	Receiving Ability (College)	Pass Protection Reputation (College)	Rookie Usage Trajectory
RJ Harvey	Solid — 20 rec / 267 yds (13.4 YPR) in 2024; good hands; can be schemed into space	Developmental — undersized, effortful but poor technique; likely schemed out of heavy blocking early	Similar to Gibbs/Bush: receiving weapon, not trusted as protector
Jahmyr Gibbs	Elite — 44 rec / 444 yds at Alabama in 2022; true mismatch weapon	Weakness — ducked head, poor anchor, one of lowest PFF pass-block grades	Used in routes, paired with Montgomery for pass pro
Alvin Kamara	High volume — 40 rec / 392 yds in 2016 at Tennessee	Strength — praised for awareness, anchor, and willingness; NFL-ready in pass pro	Trusted 3-down back from day one
Reggie Bush	Elite — 37 rec / 478 yds (12.9 YPR) in 2005 at USC	Weakness — not asked to block much, lacked size/power vs blitzers	Rotated with bigger backs (McAllister/Thomas) for protection

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great discussions here. RJ is an interesting prospect but I have serious concerns with his transition from UCF to the NFL.

Talking 2024 numbers only

• LOW Yards after contact vs lesser competition is a serious red flag
• 20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college
• Doesn’t run with power
• As a receiver, he’s a liability. 3.4 ypr and only 10.3% missed tackle rate.
• Pass protection is always a concern with rookies, but RJ is one of the worst overall prospects both level of effort and effectiveness blocking for his QB.

Rookie year, I think the coach will give RJ some first and second down work. Give his 2nd round pick opportunities to bust some runs and develop.

Good news for those of you who disagree with me… I’m wrong… a lot. Super cool being in the minority on this one. I am fading RJ and heavily invested in Dobbins.

This is a great community and felt it appropriate to share my thoughts and reasoning. After seeing some elite projection numbers tossed out, please go back and watch some film or check receiving stats in particular. It’s highly unlikely RJ will earn many targets until he improves.

Just so everyone can see a singular response:

I've now tried to validate everything in this post. The data is wrong on every single bullet.

However, I compiled some pass protection stuff (harder because it's more eyes and words than it is stats) and it seems like Harvey is about as good in pass pro as Gibbs and Reggie B were.

Player	Receiving Ability (College)	Pass Protection Reputation (College)	Rookie Usage Trajectory
RJ Harvey	Solid — 20 rec / 267 yds (13.4 YPR) in 2024; good hands; can be schemed into space	Developmental — undersized, effortful but poor technique; likely schemed out of heavy blocking early	Similar to Gibbs/Bush: receiving weapon, not trusted as protector
Jahmyr Gibbs	Elite — 44 rec / 444 yds at Alabama in 2022; true mismatch weapon	Weakness — ducked head, poor anchor, one of lowest PFF pass-block grades	Used in routes, paired with Montgomery for pass pro
Alvin Kamara	High volume — 40 rec / 392 yds in 2016 at Tennessee	Strength — praised for awareness, anchor, and willingness; NFL-ready in pass pro	Trusted 3-down back from day one
Reggie Bush	Elite — 37 rec / 478 yds (12.9 YPR) in 2005 at USC	Weakness — not asked to block much, lacked size/power vs blitzers	Rotated with bigger backs (McAllister/Thomas) for protection

If Harvey can be trusted to pick up the blitz or help out in pass protection at times so he's not a total giveaway what he's on the field for, that's gonna get him more touches and playing time
It's gonna be split time at first no doubt about it, let's see what Mid October looks like, Harvey investors are banking on his talent and Dobbins inability to typically stay healthy as motivating factors for his projected success. He also has a nice QB and passing game help open up some running lanes.

There is room for 180-200 carries for both of them.
Dobbins will see the field more when the Broncos have a lead in the 4th Q, Harvey is there for higher scoring games and there will be plenty of them

 

[H8fulHuck]

Great discussions here. RJ is an interesting prospect but I have serious concerns with his transition from UCF to the NFL.

Talking 2024 numbers only

• LOW Yards after contact vs lesser competition is a serious red flag
• 20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college
• Doesn’t run with power
• As a receiver, he’s a liability. 3.4 ypr and only 10.3% missed tackle rate.
• Pass protection is always a concern with rookies, but RJ is one of the worst overall prospects both level of effort and effectiveness blocking for his QB.

Rookie year, I think the coach will give RJ some first and second down work. Give his 2nd round pick opportunities to bust some runs and develop.

Good news for those of you who disagree with me… I’m wrong… a lot. Super cool being in the minority on this one. I am fading RJ and heavily invested in Dobbins.

This is a great community and felt it appropriate to share my thoughts and reasoning. After seeing some elite projection numbers tossed out, please go back and watch some film or check receiving stats in particular. It’s highly unlikely RJ will earn many targets until he improves.

Bookmarking this for round 2. I mostly ignore college stats and go close to fully baked on coach and historical trends and drat capital, but this is pretty relevant.

Where did you get 3.4 YPR? I'm seeing 13.4 - you may have lost the extra 1 somewhere

Most of his stats are wrong. So wrong that I question the motivation for his post.

As you mentioned, Harvey averaged 13.4 ypr last season -- averaged 11.8 ypr for his college career. Not "3.4 ypr."

"20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college." Harvey averaged over .31 MTF per touch (31%) over his 3 seasons. In comparison, Omarion Hampton's career high was 0.295 MTF per touch.

"LOW Yards after contact?" Harvey led all rookie RBs in (1) missed tackles forced on inside runs (50 MTF); and (2) yards after contact on inside runs (559 yds - yes more than Jeanty). Kinda hard to do both for a weak and non-elusive RB that Huck claims he is.

Spags channel
Chris does his homework and I’m a big fan. Numbers from his spreadsheet for all rookie RB are in this video. Each RB is time stamped if you’d like to jump to the guy you are interested in reviewing.

Might as well turn this into a pseudo promo. Chris shares his takes on QB WR and TE too. All before the NFL draft. He’s done it for years. Everyone has misses but I think he’s very sharp.

I won’t post anything to knowingly mislead people. Very happy to be in the minority with my takes and you are welcome to ignore what I share. Don’t care one bit if anyone agrees with me or not. It just concerned me the receiving numbers in particular seem way too high.

 

[Instinctive]

Great discussions here. RJ is an interesting prospect but I have serious concerns with his transition from UCF to the NFL.

Talking 2024 numbers only

• LOW Yards after contact vs lesser competition is a serious red flag
• 20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college
• Doesn’t run with power
• As a receiver, he’s a liability. 3.4 ypr and only 10.3% missed tackle rate.
• Pass protection is always a concern with rookies, but RJ is one of the worst overall prospects both level of effort and effectiveness blocking for his QB.

Rookie year, I think the coach will give RJ some first and second down work. Give his 2nd round pick opportunities to bust some runs and develop.

Good news for those of you who disagree with me… I’m wrong… a lot. Super cool being in the minority on this one. I am fading RJ and heavily invested in Dobbins.

This is a great community and felt it appropriate to share my thoughts and reasoning. After seeing some elite projection numbers tossed out, please go back and watch some film or check receiving stats in particular. It’s highly unlikely RJ will earn many targets until he improves.

Bookmarking this for round 2. I mostly ignore college stats and go close to fully baked on coach and historical trends and drat capital, but this is pretty relevant.

Where did you get 3.4 YPR? I'm seeing 13.4 - you may have lost the extra 1 somewhere

Most of his stats are wrong. So wrong that I question the motivation for his post.

As you mentioned, Harvey averaged 13.4 ypr last season -- averaged 11.8 ypr for his college career. Not "3.4 ypr."

"20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college." Harvey averaged over .31 MTF per touch (31%) over his 3 seasons. In comparison, Omarion Hampton's career high was 0.295 MTF per touch.

"LOW Yards after contact?" Harvey led all rookie RBs in (1) missed tackles forced on inside runs (50 MTF); and (2) yards after contact on inside runs (559 yds - yes more than Jeanty). Kinda hard to do both for a weak and non-elusive RB that Huck claims he is.

Spags channel
Chris does his homework and I’m a big fan. Numbers from his spreadsheet for all rookie RB are in this video. Each RB is time stamped if you’d like to jump to the guy you are interested in reviewing.

Might as well turn this into a pseudo promo. Chris shares his takes on QB WR and TE too. All before the NFL draft. He’s done it for years. Everyone has misses but I think he’s very sharp.

I won’t post anything to knowingly mislead people. Very happy to be in the minority with my takes and you are welcome to ignore what I share. Don’t care one bit if anyone agrees with me or not. It just concerned me the receiving numbers in particular seem way too high.

Just FWIW - it's not about disagreeing with you. You posted incorrect data. I'm pointing out that either you have been misled and didn't confirm it, or you don't actually understand what you posted, or you are actually knowingly trying to mislead people. I examined your source and now I really know you need to take a second look, because your post misinterprets and misapplies the data shown. Go back and actually listen to it and look at the spreadsheet - seems like a sharp guy with good info, but half listening and confirming a preexisting opinion as a result is dangerous my friend.

All of this is totally separate from any Harvey projection itself. And nothing to do with a minority or majority take. Or agreeing with the takes. The receiving numbers may be way too high - but evidence of that is NOT your completely inaccurate (ok, not inaccurate, but totally misapplied and not applicable to the argument youre making) data.

FWIW - I clicked the link on your video and skipped to Harvey, and his spreadsheet also shows 13.4 yards per reception. The same chart shows him at 40% missed tackles forced on receptions - I think your 10% figure and your 3.4 "YPR, whatever it may stand for" (btw, I'm pretty sure it is yards per rush, in context) both come from a significantly cut down subset in his 3rd set of columns - which he explicitly notes in data coming from only when they faced an 8+ man box. BTW on receiving work, That is #1 YPR in the class and #6 missed tackle rate. He also has more YAC per reception than Jeanty, Judkins, Hampton, Henderson...every back drafted ahead of him I think?

So if we want to use the source (I love this, it's some data I hadn't seen), we should note a couple things:
1. Harvey has the highest yards per reception of any back drafted this year
2. Harvey does not appear to do well against 8+ men in the box (although weirdly with low efficiency stats he still had a top 5 EPA against 8 man boxes)
3. His missed tackle rate on carries of 20.7% is slightly below average - but is limited to only his rushing attempts, and is only in 2024's season, not his career rate
4. he is low on yards after contact on his 2024 rushing attempts - again just rushing attempts (fortunately, Denver is projected to create the MOST yards BEFORE contact of any team this season by Warren Sharp's crew)
5. I already posted a detailed scan of everything pass pro-related. Suffice to say he's definitely not good, but his effort is repeatedly commented on as very high, but with low skill and technique


I don't need your approval. but I do like to learn. So when someone posts something they either A) clearly don't understand or B) are intentionally misleading about (I have to assume A based on your recent post, which I have no reason not to believe you're trying to contribute and be helpful to all of us and have a productive discussion!), my reaction is to go to the source and check i, and then share what I've learned.

As to when I go back through and QC my own projections, I may use this as a chance to reexamine my expectations for his rushing efficiency, but I think the data actual confirms he is likely to be receiving focused and also to do a really good job catching the ball.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

Great discussions here. RJ is an interesting prospect but I have serious concerns with his transition from UCF to the NFL.

Talking 2024 numbers only

• LOW Yards after contact vs lesser competition is a serious red flag
• 20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college
• Doesn’t run with power
• As a receiver, he’s a liability. 3.4 ypr and only 10.3% missed tackle rate.
• Pass protection is always a concern with rookies, but RJ is one of the worst overall prospects both level of effort and effectiveness blocking for his QB.

Rookie year, I think the coach will give RJ some first and second down work. Give his 2nd round pick opportunities to bust some runs and develop.

Good news for those of you who disagree with me… I’m wrong… a lot. Super cool being in the minority on this one. I am fading RJ and heavily invested in Dobbins.

This is a great community and felt it appropriate to share my thoughts and reasoning. After seeing some elite projection numbers tossed out, please go back and watch some film or check receiving stats in particular. It’s highly unlikely RJ will earn many targets until he improves.

Bookmarking this for round 2. I mostly ignore college stats and go close to fully baked on coach and historical trends and drat capital, but this is pretty relevant.

Where did you get 3.4 YPR? I'm seeing 13.4 - you may have lost the extra 1 somewhere

Most of his stats are wrong. So wrong that I question the motivation for his post.

As you mentioned, Harvey averaged 13.4 ypr last season -- averaged 11.8 ypr for his college career. Not "3.4 ypr."

"20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college." Harvey averaged over .31 MTF per touch (31%) over his 3 seasons. In comparison, Omarion Hampton's career high was 0.295 MTF per touch.

"LOW Yards after contact?" Harvey led all rookie RBs in (1) missed tackles forced on inside runs (50 MTF); and (2) yards after contact on inside runs (559 yds - yes more than Jeanty). Kinda hard to do both for a weak and non-elusive RB that Huck claims he is.

Spags channel
Chris does his homework and I’m a big fan. Numbers from his spreadsheet for all rookie RB are in this video. Each RB is time stamped if you’d like to jump to the guy you are interested in reviewing.

Might as well turn this into a pseudo promo. Chris shares his takes on QB WR and TE too. All before the NFL draft. He’s done it for years. Everyone has misses but I think he’s very sharp.

I won’t post anything to knowingly mislead people. Very happy to be in the minority with my takes and you are welcome to ignore what I share. Don’t care one bit if anyone agrees with me or not. It just concerned me the receiving numbers in particular seem way too high.

Just FWIW - it's not about disagreeing with you. You posted incorrect data. I'm pointing out that either you have been misled and didn't confirm it, or you don't actually understand what you posted, or you are actually knowingly trying to mislead people. I examined your source and now I really know you need to take a second look, because your post misinterprets and misapplies the data shown. Go back and actually listen to it and look at the spreadsheet - seems like a sharp guy with good info, but half listening and confirming a preexisting opinion as a result is dangerous my friend.

All of this is totally separate from any Harvey projection itself. And nothing to do with a minority or majority take. Or agreeing with the takes. The receiving numbers may be way too high - but evidence of that is NOT your completely inaccurate (ok, not inaccurate, but totally misapplied and not applicable to the argument youre making) data.

FWIW - I clicked the link on your video and skipped to Harvey, and his spreadsheet also shows 13.4 yards per reception. The same chart shows him at 40% missed tackles forced on receptions - I think your 10% figure and your 3.4 "YPR, whatever it may stand for" (btw, I'm pretty sure it is yards per rush, in context) both come from a significantly cut down subset in his 3rd set of columns - which he explicitly notes in data coming from only when they faced an 8+ man box. BTW on receiving work, That is #1 YPR in the class and #6 missed tackle rate. He also has more YAC per reception than Jeanty, Judkins, Hampton, Henderson...every back drafted ahead of him I think?

So if we want to use the source (I love this, it's some data I hadn't seen), we should note a couple things:
1. Harvey has the highest yards per reception of any back drafted this year
2. Harvey does not appear to do well against 8+ men in the box (although weirdly with low efficiency stats he still had a top 5 EPA against 8 man boxes)
3. His missed tackle rate on carries of 20.7% is slightly below average - but is limited to only his rushing attempts, and is only in 2024's season, not his career rate
4. he is low on yards after contact on his 2024 rushing attempts - again just rushing attempts (fortunately, Denver is projected to create the MOST yards BEFORE contact of any team this season by Warren Sharp's crew)
5. I already posted a detailed scan of everything pass pro-related. Suffice to say he's definitely not good, but his effort is repeatedly commented on as very high, but with low skill and technique


I don't need your approval. but I do like to learn. So when someone posts something they either A) clearly don't understand or B) are intentionally misleading about (I have to assume A based on your recent post, which I have no reason not to believe you're trying to contribute and be helpful to all of us and have a productive discussion!), my reaction is to go to the source and check i, and then share what I've learned.

As to when I go back through and QC my own projections, I may use this as a chance to reexamine my expectations for his rushing efficiency, but I think the data actual confirms he is likely to be receiving focused and also to do a really good job catching the ball.

FWIW, Harvey's first 3 catches of the year went for 112 yards. His last 6 games he had 11 catches for 72 yards.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great discussions here. RJ is an interesting prospect but I have serious concerns with his transition from UCF to the NFL.

Talking 2024 numbers only

• LOW Yards after contact vs lesser competition is a serious red flag
• 20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college
• Doesn’t run with power
• As a receiver, he’s a liability. 3.4 ypr and only 10.3% missed tackle rate.
• Pass protection is always a concern with rookies, but RJ is one of the worst overall prospects both level of effort and effectiveness blocking for his QB.

Rookie year, I think the coach will give RJ some first and second down work. Give his 2nd round pick opportunities to bust some runs and develop.

Good news for those of you who disagree with me… I’m wrong… a lot. Super cool being in the minority on this one. I am fading RJ and heavily invested in Dobbins.

This is a great community and felt it appropriate to share my thoughts and reasoning. After seeing some elite projection numbers tossed out, please go back and watch some film or check receiving stats in particular. It’s highly unlikely RJ will earn many targets until he improves.

Bookmarking this for round 2. I mostly ignore college stats and go close to fully baked on coach and historical trends and drat capital, but this is pretty relevant.

Where did you get 3.4 YPR? I'm seeing 13.4 - you may have lost the extra 1 somewhere

Most of his stats are wrong. So wrong that I question the motivation for his post.

As you mentioned, Harvey averaged 13.4 ypr last season -- averaged 11.8 ypr for his college career. Not "3.4 ypr."

"20.7% missed tackle rate is below average in college." Harvey averaged over .31 MTF per touch (31%) over his 3 seasons. In comparison, Omarion Hampton's career high was 0.295 MTF per touch.

"LOW Yards after contact?" Harvey led all rookie RBs in (1) missed tackles forced on inside runs (50 MTF); and (2) yards after contact on inside runs (559 yds - yes more than Jeanty). Kinda hard to do both for a weak and non-elusive RB that Huck claims he is.

Spags channel
Chris does his homework and I’m a big fan. Numbers from his spreadsheet for all rookie RB are in this video. Each RB is time stamped if you’d like to jump to the guy you are interested in reviewing.

Might as well turn this into a pseudo promo. Chris shares his takes on QB WR and TE too. All before the NFL draft. He’s done it for years. Everyone has misses but I think he’s very sharp.

I won’t post anything to knowingly mislead people. Very happy to be in the minority with my takes and you are welcome to ignore what I share. Don’t care one bit if anyone agrees with me or not. It just concerned me the receiving numbers in particular seem way too high.

Just FWIW - it's not about disagreeing with you. You posted incorrect data. I'm pointing out that either you have been misled and didn't confirm it, or you don't actually understand what you posted, or you are actually knowingly trying to mislead people. I examined your source and now I really know you need to take a second look, because your post misinterprets and misapplies the data shown. Go back and actually listen to it and look at the spreadsheet - seems like a sharp guy with good info, but half listening and confirming a preexisting opinion as a result is dangerous my friend.

All of this is totally separate from any Harvey projection itself. And nothing to do with a minority or majority take. Or agreeing with the takes. The receiving numbers may be way too high - but evidence of that is NOT your completely inaccurate (ok, not inaccurate, but totally misapplied and not applicable to the argument youre making) data.

FWIW - I clicked the link on your video and skipped to Harvey, and his spreadsheet also shows 13.4 yards per reception. The same chart shows him at 40% missed tackles forced on receptions - I think your 10% figure and your 3.4 "YPR, whatever it may stand for" (btw, I'm pretty sure it is yards per rush, in context) both come from a significantly cut down subset in his 3rd set of columns - which he explicitly notes in data coming from only when they faced an 8+ man box. BTW on receiving work, That is #1 YPR in the class and #6 missed tackle rate. He also has more YAC per reception than Jeanty, Judkins, Hampton, Henderson...every back drafted ahead of him I think?

So if we want to use the source (I love this, it's some data I hadn't seen), we should note a couple things:
1. Harvey has the highest yards per reception of any back drafted this year
2. Harvey does not appear to do well against 8+ men in the box (although weirdly with low efficiency stats he still had a top 5 EPA against 8 man boxes)
3. His missed tackle rate on carries of 20.7% is slightly below average - but is limited to only his rushing attempts, and is only in 2024's season, not his career rate
4. he is low on yards after contact on his 2024 rushing attempts - again just rushing attempts (fortunately, Denver is projected to create the MOST yards BEFORE contact of any team this season by Warren Sharp's crew)
5. I already posted a detailed scan of everything pass pro-related. Suffice to say he's definitely not good, but his effort is repeatedly commented on as very high, but with low skill and technique


I don't need your approval. but I do like to learn. So when someone posts something they either A) clearly don't understand or B) are intentionally misleading about (I have to assume A based on your recent post, which I have no reason not to believe you're trying to contribute and be helpful to all of us and have a productive discussion!), my reaction is to go to the source and check i, and then share what I've learned.

As to when I go back through and QC my own projections, I may use this as a chance to reexamine my expectations for his rushing efficiency, but I think the data actual confirms he is likely to be receiving focused and also to do a really good job catching the ball.

FWIW, Harvey's first 3 catches of the year went for 112 yards. His last 6 games he had 11 catches for 72 yards.

It's hard to maintain almost 40 yds a catch J/K.
I appreciate what you are doing in challenging the validity of Harvey as a good 4th/5th round pick, you have some compelling reasons to be a little skeptical

My tolerance for risk in the 4th/5th round especially with rookie RBs that show promise is high/strong.
Example the other way would be Harrison Jr last year going as high as a late 2nd/early 3rd, he's still going pretty high this season
The price tag for Harvey seems about right and there is big upside if he wins the job outright

I think Dobbins will help him not hurt his number so much.
He can learn along side him and I think as the season unfolds you'll see Harvey featured more or at least put into situations/plays where he can do more damage

Some weeks might be 12 touches and 75 yds with some of those touches coming via receptions, PPR you get points for those.
50 on the ground, 3/30 and you already have about 11 in PPR, not fantastic but I believe that will be an avg week, some weeks he'll find the end zone and you might go over 20
It won't be as consistent as some might like but he's going to factor into the offense heavily with a young and improving Bo Nix at QB
He needs to make sure he doesn't blow any blitz pick ups, he can't allow Nix to take a nasty sack because he didn't know the playbook or play call or the right read
I'm more concerned about those things the first month than I am his ability to break open chunk plays for the offense

 

[SanDawg]

3 rushes today and 4 yards....ouch. 1 catch, 1 yard....

 

[Alex P Keaton]

3 rushes today and 4 yards....ouch. 1 catch, 1 yard....

Oof. Tough start to the regular season. Oh wait……

 

[Ministry of Pain]

3 rushes today and 4 yards....ouch. 1 catch, 1 yard....

Oof. Tough start to the regular season. Oh wait……

I'm surprised they even played him
I always think its bad when players are out there last preseason game...rookies I give a little leeway but for example the Vikings feel absolutely no reason to play JJ McCarthy
That guy needs reps in games IMHO, they don't even want to take a chance. I know he's the starting QB and missed all of last year but still I'm not happy Harvey was in the game at all today

-Hope people see the numbers and slide him down a round

 

[SanDawg]

3 rushes today and 4 yards....ouch. 1 catch, 1 yard....

Oof. Tough start to the regular season. Oh wait……

Not the regular season but starters played plenty. Would have hoped for a better stat line. Sutton found a way.