#4 Fantasy Pick in 2012 (1 Viewer)

[dollarbill13]

Since the last poll was tied, we'll call AP & McCoy 2a & 2b. Who is #4?

#1 - Arian Foster 43.24% (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=623415)

#2a - Adrian Peterson 29.77% (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=623495)

#2b - LeSean McCoy 29.77% (http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=623495)

Assuming we know what we know now and nothing more. You know his production so far, his age, draft pedigree, etc. So you can predict that young guys will improve or old guys will decline.

Assume PPR, 6 points all TD, QB/2RB/3WR/TE/K/D

 

[solorca]

This is the point where I would consider Aaron Rodgers, but I ended up going with Ray Rice.

 

[Alkahsu]

Ray Rice for me, it would definitely be one of the RBs. I think I would only draft a QB in the 1st round if it was with the 10th pick and it was Rodgers, which I don't see happening. Especially after this year.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I have a feeling when all is said and done this year by next fall No. 4 will be Murray.

 

[Foxhound]

We've already forgotten about Jamaal Charles. :(

 

[flc735]

with 6 points ALL tds, you have to go rodgers (he'd probally be the adp #1 in this format to be honest). although i dont know why you are using this format, very unpopular

 

[Shermanator]

with 6 points ALL tds, you have to go rodgers (he'd probally be the adp #1 in this format to be honest). although i dont know why you are using this format, very unpopular

agreed. rodgers should be #1 overall easily in this format

 

[Alkahsu]

I keep forgetting we are supposed to assume 6 point passing TDs, my answer reflects 4 point passing TDs. Honestly, who still plays with 6 point passing TDs?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I keep forgetting we are supposed to assume 6 point passing TDs, my answer reflects 4 point passing TDs. Honestly, who still plays with 6 point passing TDs?

I do, and Aaron Rodgers is the #1 pick in this format.

 

[mr roboto]

I keep forgetting we are supposed to assume 6 point passing TDs, my answer reflects 4 point passing TDs. Honestly, who still plays with 6 point passing TDs?

I do, and Aaron Rodgers is the #1 pick in this format.

We do too. And 2 QB start to boot.

 

[SproutDaddy]

We've already forgotten about Jamaal Charles. :(

We haven't forgotten about his torn ACL.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I keep forgetting we are supposed to assume 6 point passing TDs, my answer reflects 4 point passing TDs. Honestly, who still plays with 6 point passing TDs?

I've been playing FF for 10 years. I've never played where TDs were 4 points. Why would you when they count as 6 in the NFL?

 

[hines]

why would you play where TDs count less because they were thrown in? shouldn't you want QBs to be the most important player on your team since you only have one of them and that is what a good team in the NFL is based around? as I have said in every thread, Rodgers is the pick and it's not close

 

[MIMN]

I keep forgetting we are supposed to assume 6 point passing TDs, my answer reflects 4 point passing TDs. Honestly, who still plays with 6 point passing TDs?

I've been playing FF for 10 years. I've never played where TDs were 4 points. Why would you when they count as 6 in the NFL?

Why would you count a PPR? They don't in the NFL. Also points for yards? Points for sacks and fumble recoveries? The NFL doesn't count points for any of those. You aren't really playing in the NFL.I have never played where passing TDs are 6. I have played with 4 and 3. I'm not saying it is wrong to have 6 pts per passing TD. It just that most people assume 4 unless they hear otherwise.6 points for passing touchdowns seems to me like it would just inflate the influence of a QB and make that the dominate position on the team. I would draft a QB in the first 3 rounds for sure if they were still available. I assume that others would too. So there are not enough QBs listed in the options to pick the order based on 6 pt passing TDs. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Romo, etc. Those should all be listed. I would expect the entire first round to be all QBs (and most of the 2nd round). Why mess around with Foster or AP that will only get 1-2 TDs per game when you can find a QB matchup to get you 3-4? I wouldn't think that until the wrap-around gets back to the elite QBs that someone should be looking at another position.If I were drafting 4th and Rodgers were there I would take him as fast as possible.So if you are giving 6 pts to a QB are you seeing RBs off the board first? It would shock me. I am seriously interested so that I know if I ever do wind up in a 6 pt league. It might be for a different thread but see no sense in starting another.

 

[Zow]

I keep forgetting we are supposed to assume 6 point passing TDs, my answer reflects 4 point passing TDs. Honestly, who still plays with 6 point passing TDs?

I've been playing FF for 10 years. I've never played where TDs were 4 points. Why would you when they count as 6 in the NFL?

passing TDs count as 0, technically, in the NFL as the receiver is the one who scores the TD.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I keep forgetting we are supposed to assume 6 point passing TDs, my answer reflects 4 point passing TDs. Honestly, who still plays with 6 point passing TDs?

I've been playing FF for 10 years. I've never played where TDs were 4 points. Why would you when they count as 6 in the NFL?

passing TDs count as 0, technically, in the NFL as the receiver is the one who scores the TD.

Thanks for the insight oh wise one. No wonder people think of you how they do.

 

[thatguy]

I keep forgetting we are supposed to assume 6 point passing TDs, my answer reflects 4 point passing TDs. Honestly, who still plays with 6 point passing TDs?

I've been playing FF for 10 years. I've never played where TDs were 4 points. Why would you when they count as 6 in the NFL?

Why would you count a PPR? They don't in the NFL. Also points for yards? Points for sacks and fumble recoveries? The NFL doesn't count points for any of those. You aren't really playing in the NFL.I have never played where passing TDs are 6. I have played with 4 and 3. I'm not saying it is wrong to have 6 pts per passing TD. It just that most people assume 4 unless they hear otherwise.6 points for passing touchdowns seems to me like it would just inflate the influence of a QB and make that the dominate position on the team. I would draft a QB in the first 3 rounds for sure if they were still available. I assume that others would too. So there are not enough QBs listed in the options to pick the order based on 6 pt passing TDs. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Romo, etc. Those should all be listed. I would expect the entire first round to be all QBs (and most of the 2nd round). Why mess around with Foster or AP that will only get 1-2 TDs per game when you can find a QB matchup to get you 3-4? I wouldn't think that until the wrap-around gets back to the elite QBs that someone should be looking at another position.If I were drafting 4th and Rodgers were there I would take him as fast as possible.So if you are giving 6 pts to a QB are you seeing RBs off the board first? It would shock me. I am seriously interested so that I know if I ever do wind up in a 6 pt league. It might be for a different thread but see no sense in starting another.

The fact that QB's get more TD's than other positions is not the issue. Since all QB's get 6 points per touchdown, what matters, as is the case in any format, is a QB's value relative to other QB's, not to players at other positions. It all comes down to VBD. So yes, you do have a good deal to learn if you ever decide to play in a 6 point per passing TD league.

 

[iNeedCoffee]

Ray Rice would be the safest pick, Aaron Rodgers would be the intriguing pick, and Cam Newton would be the high risk/high reward pick. A-Rod is intriguing because he is the best talent available but good running backs are scarce.

 

[the UFFRM]

In light of the way the rules have changed in the last few years QB is easily the most important position on a real football team. Why would you not want to mirror that in FF? I've always played 6pt pass TD leagues going on 12 years. RBs get drafted first because you can start more than one and the best FF teams have depth at RB. Elite QBs get drafted high due to their low risk and high reward which is even greater as league size increases. 4 pt pass TDs is lame IMO and if you are going to do that then you should discount rec TDs to 4 also because it's not like they threw it to themselves.

 

[Zoblefu]

Going to go Ray Rice here... I would consider Rodgers soon though. And Megatron soon after.

 

[solorca]

I keep forgetting we are supposed to assume 6 point passing TDs, my answer reflects 4 point passing TDs. Honestly, who still plays with 6 point passing TDs?

I've been playing FF for 10 years. I've never played where TDs were 4 points. Why would you when they count as 6 in the NFL?

6 points for passing touchdowns seems to me like it would just inflate the influence of a QB and make that the dominate position on the team. I would draft a QB in the first 3 rounds for sure if they were still available. I assume that others would too. So there are not enough QBs listed in the options to pick the order based on 6 pt passing TDs. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Romo, etc. Those should all be listed. I would expect the entire first round to be all QBs (and most of the 2nd round). Why mess around with Foster or AP that will only get 1-2 TDs per game when you can find a QB matchup to get you 3-4? I wouldn't think that until the wrap-around gets back to the elite QBs that someone should be looking at another position.If I were drafting 4th and Rodgers were there I would take him as fast as possible.So if you are giving 6 pts to a QB are you seeing RBs off the board first? It would shock me. I am seriously interested so that I know if I ever do wind up in a 6 pt league. It might be for a different thread but see no sense in starting another.

I only play in 6 point passing TD leagues and it doesn't really affect the QB's that much. 4 points or 6 points, every passing touchdown for every QB still counts the same, so it's mainly a wash. Sure, the QB's who throw a ton of touchdowns get a bump, but it isn't that dramatic. Rodgers and Vick were drafted 6th and 12th in my league this year. Last season, no QB's were drafted in the first round. RB's are always off the board first in every 6 point league I've ever played in, because the difference between the QB you can get in round 3-4 vs. the RB you can get in the same round is a MASSIVE drop. Backs are still the most valuable players to draft early.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

6 point TDs means elite QBs are more valuable than non-elite QBs to a greater extent than is true in 4-point leagues. But it does not mean they are more valuable than elite RBs.

It doesn't mean you take Rodgers over Foster/ADP/McCoy/Rice. It does mean that there's more of a payoff to taking a top QB in the early rounds instead of waiting for the Matt Ryans of the world later.

 

[Major]

This is the point where I would consider Aaron Rodgers, but I ended up going with Ray Rice.

Some people just have Running Back envy. Having Rodgers on your team is a sure thing. He's substantially better than any QB. Why pass it up? b/c you're told to draft RBs in the first round? I'm normally an RB/WR guy in the first 2 rounds but I'd draft Rodgers here with the quickness.

 

[Zoblefu]

You have to look at opportunity cost though. You drop from like RB1 to RB17 or so if you don't take an RB first overall and lose a bunch of potential points that way. Way more points than if you were to drop from QB1 to QB4 or so.

At pick 4 here, the Aaron Rodgers pick is more reasonable because you're dropping from RB4 to RB15 or so, which is less of a drop than QB1 to QB4 (this season anyway...) But maybe you could pick up QB3 in the second round? If so you'd be better off picking RB4... (Ray Rice) So it's a bit of a gamble either way... (Although both are close) but ask most any fantasy player if they want "QB1 and RB15" or "QB4 and RB4" and I bet you'll get a lot more that prefer the latter...

But, this is all based on the numbers this year and guessing what people will draft after you of course...

As close as it is between RB4+QB3 (419) > QB1+RB15 (416.7) > RB4+QB4 (405.5) , I don't think either decision is very bad. I just think picking RB first makes sense due to dropping way down the RB list if you don't. (raw numbers from my league, which is PPR and 6pt TDs)

And this is also with perfect foreknowledge... Brees was QB4 in most drafts (Rodgers Vick Brady) but is really QB2 now...

 

[rizzler]

I wouldn't bat an eyelid if someone took Rodgers #1 in this format....

Ive taken Manning in the past at #1, and won my league.

But for now, and the foreseeable future, Foster has gotta be the numero uno.

 

[solorca]

This is the point where I would consider Aaron Rodgers, but I ended up going with Ray Rice.

Some people just have Running Back envy. Having Rodgers on your team is a sure thing. He's substantially better than any QB. Why pass it up? b/c you're told to draft RBs in the first round? I'm normally an RB/WR guy in the first 2 rounds but I'd draft Rodgers here with the quickness.

I don't draft RB's early because I'm "told to", I do it because I have had substantially more success getting the RB early than going for the QB. In a league with this exact same setup, I drafted Lesean McCoy at #5 and Aaron Rodgers went #6. I am 8-2, he is 3-6. In another league with a similar setup, I drafted Rodgers at #10, and it's the worst team that I have (out of four). The value of running backs drops off a cliff really early, while you can still pick up a good QB in a later round. For me, missing out on Aaron Rodgers is worth it to shore up the RB position.

 

[footballfever]

After a season like this, how could you not take Rodgers #4. I would even debate he goes after Foster and ahead of Peterson.

 

[thatguy]

If you could be sure that Rodgers will 1) finish the season as strong as he has started it, and 2) put up the same or very similar production next season, then he is the no brainer first pick. But history has told us that QB's tend to regress to their career means after monster seasons. See Brady and Peyton following their huge seasons. In my league, Rodgers is putting up 14 PPG more than a replacement level QB. Foster is putting up 12 PPG more than a replacement level RB (we start two and a flex, so I went 30 RB deep, at 20 RB deep it drops to 10).

So like I said, if you truly believe Rodgers will repeat his amazing season, take him. But history is not on your side. It is far more likely that guys like Foster, AP, Rice, McCoy, et al. continue to produce at similar levels than it is that Rodgers puts together back to back historically great seasons.

ETA: And by historically great, I mean arguably the 2 greatest QB season's of ALL TIME.

 

[thatguy]

Think about it like this. In Peyton's 49 TD season, he and the Colts offense looked absolutely unstoppable, and the natural question to ask was, why not? Why can't he do the same thing next season... Well, he didn't.

The same could be said for Brady after his 50 TD season. Granted, he was injured early in week 1, and we'll never know what he would have done. But he had more or less the same supporting cast the following season, and didn't come close to approaching his record breaking season.

So, why can't Rodgers produce at the same insane level next season? I don't know, but history tells me he won't.

 

[glumpy]

I keep forgetting we are supposed to assume 6 point passing TDs, my answer reflects 4 point passing TDs. Honestly, who still plays with 6 point passing TDs?

I do, and Aaron Rodgers is the #1 pick in this format.

Ditto except we add bonus for length. Rodgers was #1 this year, and four more QB's first round.ETA: that bonus for long td's obviously makes some difference, and we all know you've got to account for your league scoring for such anomalies. The team who drafted Rodgers at #1 overall is in overall first place with a 7-3 record. The four teams right behind at 6-4 started out RB-RB-WR-RB from the #2 slot, QB-WR-WR-RB from #5, QB-RB-WR-WR at #6, and RB-RB-QB-RB from the #7 hole. This is a ten team league which obviously makes a difference in strategy.Interestingly enough right behind them at 5-5 is a team who didn't pick a QB until his last two picks of the draft!!

 

[Cawbird]

I'm in the camp with Rodgers going #4, and I see the following all coming up for debate for the next few spots:

Ray Rice

Calvin Johnson

Matt Forte

 

[eric rymer]

I voted Rodgers. I love me some Ray Rice here...But, I have a hard time taking him with the Ravens play calling. 3 times this year he had 8 carries or less (Stl, Jac, and Sea). Granted PPR helps offset this, but I expect more consistent touches from a guy taken at 4.

 

[Alkahsu]

I keep forgetting we are supposed to assume 6 point passing TDs, my answer reflects 4 point passing TDs. Honestly, who still plays with 6 point passing TDs?

I've been playing FF for 10 years. I've never played where TDs were 4 points. Why would you when they count as 6 in the NFL?

As someone else said, they actually count as zero since the receiver is one who scores the TD.....In all reality though, its along the same reasoning why a QB only gets 1 point for every 25yards instead of 1 point for every 10 yards.

 

[CompetitiveEdgeFootball]

I think it really comes down to the following draft theory:

You get ahold of your projections. Either FBG, do your own, use another site you're comfortable with. Whatever.

Then you begin doing ADP study. Do a ton of mocks for the league you're drafting. (I did 700 mocks for my main league this year.)

How well do you know your league? If you have a good handle on how they draft, then you're ahead of the game. But you have to know what players are going where.

Now the interesting part. You figure Rodgers is almost certainly going in the first round. According to the current years ADP, where are Brees/Brady and probably Cam Newton going?

For arguments sake, lets say late 3rd early 4th

In general you will get RB3 or RB4 at 01.04. You can also get QB1. You can also get WR1.

Assign the RBs and WRs to tiers. Tier 1 RBs and WRs go in round 1 and 2. Generally, in past years, the top 7 QBs are gone by the beginning of the 5th.

Your projections have to be solid here. Because this is what you can't screw up.

Say Aaron Rodgers vs Brees/Brady/Newton PPG difference is less than 1ppg according to your projections.

Say, according to you projections, that the difference between WR1 (Calvin or Andre)/ RB4 (Rice/McCoy/Forte) compared to the tier going around where Brees/Brady/Newton is going is more than 1.5 ppg.

So Calvin at 1.04 is a 1.6 ppg advantage over say Stevie Johnson at 3.08.

But Rodgers at 1.04 is a .9ppg advantage over Brees at 3.08.

Logically it makes sense to go with a RB/WR in the first round, and select a QB later on.

If you can successfully spot excellent late round value (which isn't hard given the resources you have available on this site), then waiting until round 8 to grab Stafford/Roethlisberger at a mere 1.3 ppg disadvantage to Rodgers in the first, then you pack your roster full of RBs and WRs that consistently perform at an advantage vs your opponents.

So if you have 6 roster starting roster spots for RBs/WRs (2RB, 3WRs, 1 flex) operating at a .3-.5 ppg advantage, you have a 1.8-3ppg advantage over your opponent. Subtract their QB advantage (1-1.5 points) then you nearly always have a slight advantage against your opponent.

Bear in mind, Rodgers getting 6pts per passing TD is a scary proposition. But Stafford gets the same 6pts per passing TD. It also mitigates Rodgers rushing TD advantage. They're not worth 6 vs 4(passing). A rising tide lifts all boats, in this respect.

So I take the BPA at 1.04. It's probably McCoy/Rice/Calvin Johnson. Statistically it's just a bit sounder to pack high end RBs/WRs on your roster and take a marginal disadvantage at QB.

disclaimer: these numbers are theoretical and for the sake of the argument i'm making.

 

[hines]

I think it really comes down to the following draft theory:You get ahold of your projections. Either FBG, do your own, use another site you're comfortable with. Whatever.Then you begin doing ADP study. Do a ton of mocks for the league you're drafting. (I did 700 mocks for my main league this year.)How well do you know your league? If you have a good handle on how they draft, then you're ahead of the game. But you have to know what players are going where.Now the interesting part. You figure Rodgers is almost certainly going in the first round. According to the current years ADP, where are Brees/Brady and probably Cam Newton going?For arguments sake, lets say late 3rd early 4thIn general you will get RB3 or RB4 at 01.04. You can also get QB1. You can also get WR1.Assign the RBs and WRs to tiers. Tier 1 RBs and WRs go in round 1 and 2. Generally, in past years, the top 7 QBs are gone by the beginning of the 5th.Your projections have to be solid here. Because this is what you can't screw up.Say Aaron Rodgers vs Brees/Brady/Newton PPG difference is less than 1ppg according to your projections.Say, according to you projections, that the difference between WR1 (Calvin or Andre)/ RB4 (Rice/McCoy/Forte) compared to the tier going around where Brees/Brady/Newton is going is more than 1.5 ppg.So Calvin at 1.04 is a 1.6 ppg advantage over say Stevie Johnson at 3.08.But Rodgers at 1.04 is a .9ppg advantage over Brees at 3.08.Logically it makes sense to go with a RB/WR in the first round, and select a QB later on.If you can successfully spot excellent late round value (which isn't hard given the resources you have available on this site), then waiting until round 8 to grab Stafford/Roethlisberger at a mere 1.3 ppg disadvantage to Rodgers in the first, then you pack your roster full of RBs and WRs that consistently perform at an advantage vs your opponents.So if you have 6 roster starting roster spots for RBs/WRs (2RB, 3WRs, 1 flex) operating at a .3-.5 ppg advantage, you have a 1.8-3ppg advantage over your opponent. Subtract their QB advantage (1-1.5 points) then you nearly always have a slight advantage against your opponent. Bear in mind, Rodgers getting 6pts per passing TD is a scary proposition. But Stafford gets the same 6pts per passing TD. It also mitigates Rodgers rushing TD advantage. They're not worth 6 vs 4(passing). A rising tide lifts all boats, in this respect.So I take the BPA at 1.04. It's probably McCoy/Rice/Calvin Johnson. Statistically it's just a bit sounder to pack high end RBs/WRs on your roster and take a marginal disadvantage at QB.disclaimer: these numbers are theoretical and for the sake of the argument i'm making.

how often do first round RB/WR bust? way, way more than first round QBs who are known for passing. If you took Manning pretty much every year you wound up with a player who helped your team a lot, Rodgers looks to be better than Manning. he is not going to bust and is way less likely to get injured. the PPG argument is superficially convincing but you are not accounting for risk. WR and especially RB projections have to be taken as way less of a sure thing than Rodgers predictions

 

[thatguy]

I think it really comes down to the following draft theory:You get ahold of your projections. Either FBG, do your own, use another site you're comfortable with. Whatever.Then you begin doing ADP study. Do a ton of mocks for the league you're drafting. (I did 700 mocks for my main league this year.)How well do you know your league? If you have a good handle on how they draft, then you're ahead of the game. But you have to know what players are going where.Now the interesting part. You figure Rodgers is almost certainly going in the first round. According to the current years ADP, where are Brees/Brady and probably Cam Newton going?For arguments sake, lets say late 3rd early 4thIn general you will get RB3 or RB4 at 01.04. You can also get QB1. You can also get WR1.Assign the RBs and WRs to tiers. Tier 1 RBs and WRs go in round 1 and 2. Generally, in past years, the top 7 QBs are gone by the beginning of the 5th.Your projections have to be solid here. Because this is what you can't screw up.Say Aaron Rodgers vs Brees/Brady/Newton PPG difference is less than 1ppg according to your projections.Say, according to you projections, that the difference between WR1 (Calvin or Andre)/ RB4 (Rice/McCoy/Forte) compared to the tier going around where Brees/Brady/Newton is going is more than 1.5 ppg.So Calvin at 1.04 is a 1.6 ppg advantage over say Stevie Johnson at 3.08.But Rodgers at 1.04 is a .9ppg advantage over Brees at 3.08.Logically it makes sense to go with a RB/WR in the first round, and select a QB later on.If you can successfully spot excellent late round value (which isn't hard given the resources you have available on this site), then waiting until round 8 to grab Stafford/Roethlisberger at a mere 1.3 ppg disadvantage to Rodgers in the first, then you pack your roster full of RBs and WRs that consistently perform at an advantage vs your opponents.So if you have 6 roster starting roster spots for RBs/WRs (2RB, 3WRs, 1 flex) operating at a .3-.5 ppg advantage, you have a 1.8-3ppg advantage over your opponent. Subtract their QB advantage (1-1.5 points) then you nearly always have a slight advantage against your opponent. Bear in mind, Rodgers getting 6pts per passing TD is a scary proposition. But Stafford gets the same 6pts per passing TD. It also mitigates Rodgers rushing TD advantage. They're not worth 6 vs 4(passing). A rising tide lifts all boats, in this respect.So I take the BPA at 1.04. It's probably McCoy/Rice/Calvin Johnson. Statistically it's just a bit sounder to pack high end RBs/WRs on your roster and take a marginal disadvantage at QB.disclaimer: these numbers are theoretical and for the sake of the argument i'm making.

This is a very roundabout way of saying that it all comes down to VBD, something I said much earlier in the thread. Seriously guys, it's not rocket science. Don't let gaudy QB stats lure you into reaching for a QB--lots of QBs put up gaudy stats. If the value is there, sure, make the pick. But as long as every pick you make, at least in the first 6-8 rounds, is based on a VBD strategy, you'll do fine (assuming, of course, that you are using good projections). After that, use a mix of VBD based picks and high upside sleeper picks.