4 Mid-Round Fantasy Football Running Backs With Workhorse Potential (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

"I'm not going to lie to you, I am a pretty cheap guy.

I'm no George Costanza, but when it comes down to it, I'm probably not going to pay a premium for something when I can find a cheap replacement to do the job almost as well.

Let me give you an example.

I've driven a 2002 Honda Civic since I was a sophomore in high school. Go ahead and judge me, tough car guys.

Here's the thing about Hondas, though. They run forever. My car has 200,000 miles on it and has shown almost no signs of wearing down. My family drove a Honda Accord that nearly reached the 350,000 mile mark.

My car also gets well over 30 miles per gallon. Quite simply, it's an incredibly cheap and efficient car. It's not flashy by any means, but it gets the job done.

Similarly, when it comes to picking running backs in fantasy football, I'm often looking for players that have the opportunity for lots of volume that I can get for cheap. After last year's outlier season for running backs, that task has become much easier, as more and more people are overcorrecting and consequently creating some excellent value running backs.

Let's take a look at four running backs who are currently going outside of the first four rounds in early fantasy football drafts that have the opportunity to turn into workhorse runners within their respective offenses. Now, keep in mind as we get closer to the season, that if these players' teams haven't made any moves to bolster their backfields -- cough, cough Arian Foster -- several of these guys' average draft position (ADP) will shoot up.

With that in mind, here are five potential mid-round workhorse running backs."

LINK

 

[TripItUp]

annoying to have to go to another link...just sayin

also annoying, slideshows

also annoying, numberfire popups and browser freezing

/rant

ETA:  not aimed at OP, just a rant on numberfire

 

[Snorkelson]

Thanks for the post bia

 

[Slider]

Yeah just terrible. No click here. 

 

[Biabreakable]

It isn't my own blog sorry you guys didn't like it. 

I thought the content of the article was ok. That is why I linked it.

 

[Tool]

for those that don't want to click

Ajayi

Matthews

Jones

Gore

 

[zamboni]

Tough crowd - quiet time for news, so any articles are always welcome.

Keep up the good fight, Bia.

ETA: surprised they put Gore though. He's already a workhorse - just a matter of whether he can continue to hold up at his advanced age.

 

[Ilov80s]

Tough crowd - quiet time for news, so any articles are always welcome.

Keep up the good fight, Bia.

ETA: surprised they put Gore though. He's already a workhorse - just a matter of whether he can continue to hold up at his advanced age.

But Gore isn't being drafted as a workhorse. I got him in the mid 7th of a mock the other day, 

 

[abbottjamesr]

I really like Ajayi, Matthews and Gore this year as well and they are some pretty terrific values currently in early Mocks and MFL10's.  I think these guys are going to move up in ADP as  we get into the preseason though at the expense of the lower end WR2's.  The current craze of going WR,WR,WR in drafts has really pushed the ADP down on a lot of solid running backs.  

My Projections for the above guys

Ajayi RB18: 240/1056/8  40/320/2

Mathews  RB17:  224/1053/9  48/356/1

Gore   RB21:   256/1002/6    32/273/1

Jones  RB31:   224/911/5    29/259/1   Have to admit I am not a Jones fan and think he either splits carries or gives up the starting gig completely.

 

[Ilov80s]

for those that don't want to click

Ajayi ADP of 52, SD of 5

Matthews  ADP of 58, SD of 6

Jones  ADP of 49, SD of 6

Gore ADP of 65, SD 7

For the month of July in standard.

 

[Ilov80s]

I really like Ajayi, Matthews and Gore this year as well and they are some pretty terrific values currently in early Mocks and MFL10's.  I think these guys are going to move up in ADP as  we get into the preseason though at the expense of the lower end WR2's.  The current craze of going WR,WR,WR in drafts has really pushed the ADP down on a lot of solid running backs.  

My Projections for the above guys

Ajayi RB18: 240/1056/8  40/320/2

Mathews  RB17:  224/1053/9  48/356/1

Gore   RB21:   256/1002/6    32/273/1

Jones  RB31:   224/911/5    29/259/1   Have to admit I am not a Jones fan and think he either splits carries or gives up the starting gig completely.

Who is Jones losing the job too? I am not a fan either, but there isn't much else happening in the backfield. That seems like the most likely destination for Foster.

Also, you are projecting Ajayi for RB18 with those numbers? What is the scoring format? I know last year was a down year for RBs, but even in 2014 those numbers would have made him the 9th best back in standard scoring. 

 

[abbottjamesr]

Who is Jones losing the job too? I am not a fan either, but there isn't much else happening in the backfield. That seems like the most likely destination for Foster.

Also, you are projecting Ajayi for RB18 with those numbers? What is the scoring format? I know last year was a down year for RBs, but even in 2014 those numbers would have made him the 9th best back in standard scoring. 

Maybe Jones doesn't lose the job out right, but Thompson looked decent at times last year and Jones's 3.5 ypc aren't going to keep him getting touches unless he improves.  

I play non-ppr mostly, been toying with some ppr in MFL10's.  

I do my projections on a per game basis and extrapolate to 16 games.  So for Ajayi on a per game basis I have 15 carries at 4.4 ypc and 2.5 rec at 8 ypc and TD rate of .035 per touch.  That's 12.3 PPG in non ppr. which is about what Chris Ivory, Dion Lewis, and Jonathan Stewart were last year in my league.

You are right that the totals are very high for RB18 and that is a result of doing per game numbers.  Most backs will not play all 16 games, but it is hard to guess who will play how many games.  I compare my list of PPG numbers to the last three years of PPG numbers for the backs that played at least 4 games to make sure I am not way off of historical averages. 

If you only look end of season totals you get results that don't match what you are trying to do in fantasy football.  Chris Ivory was RB8 in my league last year but was about RB15 on PPG.  Gore was RB13 on totals but RB20 on PPG.  FF is a series of one week contests, so I do my projections based on 1 week.

 

[Shutout]

Don't think much of that list in terms of enlightening anyone.

Ajayi-If anyone reads that and thinks its a "scoop" then they are clearly the frog that was eaten by the fish that was plucked from the air by the hawk.  If you haven't understood Ajayi's value by now, you don't get it.

Gore-Everyone knows he's the guy. It's simply a matter of if he can hold up so its not a decision of drafting for value, its a decision of how risk tolerant you are.

Matthews-similar to Gore, better situation. Nobody will be surprised if he is pedestrian or he carves out a role by attrition...or both.

Jones-Whoa. Not even going to comment.

THe list should have started with:

Danny Woodhead

Terrell Watson

Booker or Jordan Howard (just to grease the wheels for those who love them some rookies)

and Tevin Coleman

Honarable mention-Arian Foster because he can literally go ANYWHERE and could be a top 5 rb if he is healthy and an injury opens the door.

That would have been an article worth writing and outlining the case for and worth reading. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Maybe Jones doesn't lose the job out right, but Thompson looked decent at times last year and Jones's 3.5 ypc aren't going to keep him getting touches unless he improves.  

I play non-ppr mostly, been toying with some ppr in MFL10's.  

I do my projections on a per game basis and extrapolate to 16 games.  So for Ajayi on a per game basis I have 15 carries at 4.4 ypc and 2.5 rec at 8 ypc and TD rate of .035 per touch.  That's 12.3 PPG in non ppr. which is about what Chris Ivory, Dion Lewis, and Jonathan Stewart were last year in my league.

You are right that the totals are very high for RB18 and that is a result of doing per game numbers.  Most backs will not play all 16 games, but it is hard to guess who will play how many games.  I compare my list of PPG numbers to the last three years of PPG numbers for the backs that played at least 4 games to make sure I am not way off of historical averages. 

If you only look end of season totals you get results that don't match what you are trying to do in fantasy football.  Chris Ivory was RB8 in my league last year but was about RB15 on PPG.  Gore was RB13 on totals but RB20 on PPG.  FF is a series of one week contests, so I do my projections based on 1 week.

I agree completely with PPG being more important than end of the year totals. 12.3 ppg for a RB would have ranked as RB12, RB12, RB13 and RB12 in standard over the last 4 years based on what I am seeing. 

 

[abbottjamesr]

Your right, I think I might be a bit high on most RB's.  What do you think is reasonable per game numbers for Ajayi?  Less rushes, less receptions, to many TD's?

Always appreciate folks checking my work

 

[Spike]

It seems that too many people come up with projections assuming the players will play a full 16 games.

I just don't see it.

 

[BoltBacker]

annoying to have to go to another link...just sayin

also annoying, slideshows

also annoying, numberfire popups and browser freezing

/rant

The content is pretty good, and if it was simply a link to his site and he was driving content to a page I think we would have been all good. The problem is Bleacher Report, and really MSN before them, is trying too fool the public into thinking 4 paragraphs of content belongs on 6 web page hits.

I think I would rather go back to him explaining how Ebron is going to jump from the #19 TE(ppg) to a top 6 TE.

 

[Ilov80s]

Your right, I think I might be a bit high on most RB's.  What do you think is reasonable per game numbers for Ajayi?  Less rushes, less receptions, to many TD's?

Always appreciate folks checking my work

Yeah, just trying to have a helpful conversation so I appreciate your projections. I guess I am not sure if you are too high on Ajayi or just too high on every RB in general. 

Nitpicking on Ajayi projection here:  I am not an expert at all in doing projections but I averaged the 2015 Dolphins rushing stats with the 2015 Bears rushing stats (Gase) to get 357 rushes and 4.15 per carry. I averaged all RB TDs/touch together to get a rate 0.035 for the Dolphins and 00.34 for the Bears so to be conservative, I will use 0.034. Last year, both teams employed a timeshare (now maybe in Chicago it was more due to injury than anything, but for simplicity, I am just going to use the season long numbers). The % for lead back carries was close (69 and 67) so I will assume Ajayi gets 68% of the rushing work. As for target %, the numbers were pretty far off. The Bears gave their lead back 70% while the Dolphins only 52%. Since Forte is one the best pass catching backs in the league, Miller is an above average receiving RB,  Ajayi has received some criticism towards his ability as a receiver and Drake seems perfect as a receiving back, I am going to toss out the Bears % and the Dolphins %. Instead, I am going to use the NFL average for teams that have a specialized pass catching back as I see that as the role for Drake. That would see Ajayi getting 25% of RB targets. I am going to use the  Yards per target for their RBs was real close (6.6 and 6.8) so I will use 6.7. Same with RB targets (103 and 106) so I will use 104. 

So I guess that gives me a projection of:

357 x 4.15 per rush x .68= 1007 rushing yards    104 x 6.7 x .25=  174 yards     (357 x .86) + (104 x .25)= 269 touches   269 x .034= 9 

So if Ajayi can stay healthy and he is the above average but not great talent many see him as being, I project:

243 carries, 26 receptions, 1181 yards and 9 TDs. That is 172 fantasy points or 10.75 per game. Over the last 4 years would have made him RB18, RB18, RB21, and RB 21. Although, it actually would be a bit better in reality as there are a couple guys each year that play 1 or 2 games, score a couple random TDs and have silly averages but were never usable for fantasy. 

 

[Ilov80s]

It seems that too many people come up with projections assuming the players will play a full 16 games.

I just don't see it.

What are you going to project players for then? IMO the best way is to assume 16 games and then break it down to a per game average. There is already enough inaccuracy in projections that to add projections on how many games someone will play just adds an extra level of predicting the unpredictable. 

 

[pantherclub]

For the month of July in standard.

Are ADP's even useful this early on?  I think once the preseason starts and real drafts start happening then those get useful IMO.  Looking at them now seems pointless.

 

[Ilov80s]

Are ADP's even useful this early on?  I think once the preseason starts and real drafts start happening then those get useful IMO.  Looking at them now seems pointless.

I agree that in every day we get closer to the the start of the season, the better the ADP gets. However, it is all we have to go on so far. 

 

[TripItUp]

Love me some Matt Jones and Ajayi.

 

[Biabreakable]

You know its not the best article I ever read but unfortunately it was one of the best articles I read yesterday and I read a lot of stuff.

The author was not me, that is why I used quotation marks. Some people understand what quotation marks mean. 

I don't know the author and I am not affiliated with numberfire in any way. I just happened to get an email from them linking the article which I thought was decent, so I posted a link to it. BIG DEAL!

Looking at the authors article history briefly it looks like he most writes about baseball. So maybe he is just switching over to football now and talking about stuff we have been talking about since January. So it goes with all articles coming out.

I don't think the first 3 posts of this thread were very constructive. I don't like having to click on slide shows either. The discussion was mostly focused on the opportunity, which I felt was a fine topic, but didn't really fit any other ongoing threads, so I gave its own thread.

If people want to take personal shots at me please at least try to get the facts right first. I don't like misunderstandings BoltBacker. If you want to talk about Ebron that is fine. Just understand that the author of the linked article is not me (and he was not talking about Ebron).

I love seeing your projections abbotjamesr. I think this brings out an important difference between projecting by PPG and projecting for a full season.

Numberfire projects on a per game basis (updating that with every game played) and you see similar issues with how those per game stats get projected out over a full season. I still think projecting for PPG is a good way to do it.

For example numberfire has Jay Ajayi projected for 2.49 receptions, 20.84 yards, 0.11 TDs and 45.50 rush yards, 0.29 TDs for 8.87 points on a per game basis. This extrapolates to 43.02 receptions, 378.84 yards, 1.96 TDs and 750.73 rush yards, 4.67 TDs for 149.68 points

This seems low on rushing yards to me.

I don't think season long projections are bad because you just divide season long projections by 16 and there is your PPG projection.

I think full team projections over the season is a good way to compare per game projections, and look for where things may not make sense. For example if you have all of the players from one offense getting too few or too many receptions and you add them all together for the team, then match that to the QB projections, that can give you an idea about where some of the projections need to be paired down or some players need a boost up because there is no one else to reasonably expect to fill that part of the team projection.

If you project both of these ways then I think you can get a better balance. A ton of it will still be wrong due to randomness and wrong projections. But the process of projections is mostly about trying to quantify player values to help inform your decisions.

It looks like this at least generated some discussion. I was happy to read responses here. TIWWAHF

 

[pantherclub]

I am not reading all of that

 

[TripItUp]

It isn't my own blog sorry you guys didn't like it. 

I thought the content of the article was ok. That is why I linked it.

Hey Bia, my rant wasn't aimed at you...just numberfire.  I always like your posts.

 

[BoltBacker]

If people want to take personal shots at me please at least try to get the facts right first. I don't like misunderstandings BoltBacker. If you want to talk about Ebron that is fine. Just understand that the author of the linked article is not me (and he was not talking about Ebron).

I don't think I honestly know enough about you to make a personal attack if I wanted to, and I don't mind keeping it that way. Didn't even click the link(s) to be truthful..... because I found the first three links very constructive - slideshows and endless popups are a awful and websites that use them should be punished rather than supported. I wasn't directing any hate toward you, simply a website. Again, I don't know enough about you to hate you. The Ebron comment was meant as a joke..... though I will freely admit I am guilty of disagreeing with you there.

 

[BoltBacker]

It seems that too many people come up with projections assuming the players will play a full 16 games.

I just don't see it.

That doesn't bother me as much as the inconsistency that is used. For instance plenty of people are calling Dion Lewis a "steal" this year in the 4th round. Well, if you are going to completely ignore injury history then aren't Ryan Mathews(6th) and Jonathan Stewart(7th) even bigger steals if they are throwing out injury risk/history? 

 

[Bri]

You don't have to comment in every thread, geesh if ya don't like it ya don't like it. Leave Bia alone, at least he tried to get a topic going.

I don't like that people like the Eagles rookie. He was not a predraft darling, lands on the Eagles, and some think he'll take over for Matthews or steal his spot. I need some camp news to squash my concern. I need to know if I jump on the rook bandwagon or what to do with Matthews. 

My opinion is simply a dislike for the Chiefs O. I am not reading enough on Pederson's offense. I like the Green Bay offense he "grew up" with. Ya need one WR to make KC's offense work-one. I don't know that Matthews is good enough to do the Jamaal Charles role. They couldn't trade for a KC running back? IF it is the KC offense, that RB is going to get a lot of work so...like him or not, I'll be drafting Matthews. The opportunity is there.

 

[BoltBacker]

THe list should have started with:

Danny Woodhead

I think the reason Woodhead is perpetually under-rated is because he will NEVER be a workhorse back in that offense no matter what happens. Ever. If Gordon were to get hurt they would plug in Oliver in that role and Woodhead would remain unchanged. If Oliver were to get hurt they would sign a FA to plug him into that role imo. That's why the Gordon trade/pick was so enfuriating..... it's a pure rbbc offense. Woodhead may be hyper efficient in his role and perform like a fantasy starter but he'll never get a workhorse role even if there are injuries.

 

[Bri]

 I think Derrick Henry deserves a spot in this category.

I DO think Murray gets the lion's share and does fine, but other's don't. If you adopt their point of view, Henry then looks like a steal.

As this assumed starter, he gives me the same FF love as Brandon Jacobs did. It is simply that I have no idea how many yards he'll get but he is a lock for a nice amount of TDs. In the 9th round, 39th RB taken, the yards are almost extra. I mean he has that fantasy football vibe where he could get a TD every week. You might not project 16 TDs but yet just the same, yeah he could get one every week. 6 pts plus whatever yards and catches and yards from a backup running back is totally fine.

The Titans have that worst team schedule too. 

Also FWIW, that Jacobs TD every week vibe was more like every other. He'd get 7,8 a year not near 16.

This doesn't sway me though. There only feel likes 10 or so backs that truly get the goal line work with regularity while the others have coaches being "cute." The yards will be there even if a modest 750 yards and 8 TDs. He's my bye week filler then. 

 

[Shutout]

I think the reason Woodhead is perpetually under-rated is because he will NEVER be a workhorse back in that offense no matter what happens. Ever. If Gordon were to get hurt they would plug in Oliver in that role and Woodhead would remain unchanged. If Oliver were to get hurt they would sign a FA to plug him into that role imo. That's why the Gordon trade/pick was so enfuriating..... it's a pure rbbc offense. Woodhead may be hyper efficient in his role and perform like a fantasy starter but he'll never get a workhorse role even if there are injuries.

Yeah, by title, you're spot on. I guess I was thinking in terms of impact, specifically in ppr leagues (more darkhorse for production than production derived from workhorse use). 

 

[Steed]

Numbersfire?  This the same clown that's been preaching a rb heavy approach for several years running?  Meh

youre better than this op

 

[Ted Mullins]

I really like Ajayi, Matthews and Gore this year as well and they are some pretty terrific values currently in early Mocks and MFL10's.  I think these guys are going to move up in ADP as  we get into the preseason though at the expense of the lower end WR2's.  The current craze of going WR,WR,WR in drafts has really pushed the ADP down on a lot of solid running backs.  

I agree with this - I saw this article yesterday and thought it was pretty good, but I expect all four of the RBs mentioned to move up in ADP as we get closer to the season (assuming their situations stay the same).