4th and goal at the 1. Down 18 with 6 minutes left. FG or go for it? (1 Viewer)

[SacramentoBob]

I don't think there is even much discussion here, but some people think there is.

 

[dutch]

Down 18 you need three scores no matter how you slice it so taking the fg now gets you within two scores and gives you a shot.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Go for it and then go for 2 points.

 

[HughHoney]

You're one yard from the end zone, you can kick a FG later on.

 

[shadyridr]

Down 18 you need three scores no matter how you slice it so taking the fg now gets you within two scores and gives you a shot.

Easier to score a one yd td and 50+ yd FG (after an onside kick) then 20 yd FG and 60+ yd Td drive (after onside kick) and the former takes less time

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Is this a trick question? You need some TDs, and when your chance of a TD not greater than it is when you're at their 1?

 

[SacramentoBob]

Go for it and then go for 2 points.

Obvious answer.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Is this a trick question?

Sadly, no.

kick the FG

 

[dutch]

You're one yard from the end zone, you can kick a FG later on.

I need someone to give me the math but I'm betting the odds of a succesful fg from the one are greater than the odds of converting the td so why waste the opportunity to get one of the scores you need instead of potentially wasting valuable time off the clock? .

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Go for it and then go for 2 points.

Obvious answer.

I learned my lesson in the thread about going for 2 down 15 points.

 

[HughHoney]

Kicking a FG from the one down 18 with SIX MINUTES left is laughable.

 

[SacramentoBob]

You're one yard from the end zone, you can kick a FG later on.

I need someone to give me the math

1 yard = 6 points or 2 yards = 2 points? Which one looks like a better idea?

 

[HughHoney]

How much math do you need to realize 6 minutes in a football game isn't much time.Eta: After the clock passes the 6 minute mark it goes down to 5 minutes, after that it's 4 minutes, next is 3 minutes, then 2, 1 comes after that and then the clock expires and your team probably lost cause you kicked a FG instead of going for the TD. Is that the math you're talking about?

 

[SacramentoBob]

Kicking a FG from the one down 18 with SIX MINUTES left is laughable.

They can't even hide behind the "there's too much time left on the clock to chase points" excuse.

 

[dutch]

six minutes isn't a lot of time to score twice but it's even less time if you still need three scores.

 

[Sinn Fein]

six minutes isn't a lot of time to score twice but it's even less time if you still need three scores.

Oddly enough, it is exactly the same time.

 

[Underachievers]

I don't think there is even much discussion here, but some people think there is.

Actually kind of surprised that you felt a thread was needed to continue your arguement.

 

[SacramentoBob]

I don't think there is even much discussion here, but some people think there is.

Actually kind of surprised that you felt a thread was needed to continue your arguement.

These types of situations and threads aren't anything new. Wanted to get some more opinions.

 

[Popinski]

Punt. Great chance of downing inside the 20.

 

[Underachievers]

Kicking a FG from the one down 18 with SIX MINUTES left is laughable.

Wonder what the odds are of making a FG at that point compared to scoring a TD on 4th and goal? Going for the TD seems like the no brainer, but if you fail....game over. With a FG (which I would assume would be better odds of making)...you still have a slim shot at winning. Either way, the same combination of scoring is required. No matter what decision is made, if it fails, you will have made the wrong call.

 

[MAC_32]

Kicking sounds like something shurmur would do.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

Take a knee and pin opponent at goalline.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

six minutes isn't a lot of time to score twice but it's even less time if you still need three scores.

Oddly enough, it is exactly the same time.

Gonna need to see the math here.

 

[DropKick]

Kicking a FG from the one down 18 with SIX MINUTES left is laughable.

Wonder what the odds are of making a FG at that point compared to scoring a TD on 4th and goal? Going for the TD seems like the no brainer, but if you fail....game over. With a FG (which I would assume would be better odds of making)...you still have a slim shot at winning. Either way, the same combination of scoring is required. No matter what decision is made, if it fails, you will have made the wrong call.

If you fail, you leave the ball near the goal line and a safety is a possibility. I go for the TD. I can kick a FG from the 35 later. Plus, I think it sends a message to your team. Down 18, you need to get some momentum on your side.ETA: After you make the FG, you still need 2 TDs with at least one 2 point conversion. You have a chance - with 6 minutes left - to get within a TD and FG if you can convert two short yardage plays.

 

[zftcg]

You're one yard from the end zone, you can kick a FG later on.

I need someone to give me the math but I'm betting the odds of a succesful fg from the one are greater than the odds of converting the td so why waste the opportunity to get one of the scores you need instead of potentially wasting valuable time off the clock? .

How about this math?FG = 3 ptsTD = 7 ptsOK, fine, I'll go Next Level on you: 3/7 = 42%. Assuming that your chances of hitting the FG are basically 100%, your expected value of going for it is higher as long as you have a 42% chance of converting. The league averages for that down and distance are well north of 50% (according to this chart, they're close to 70%, which means your expected value is 4.9 pts).

 

[renesauz]

You're one yard from the end zone, you can kick a FG later on.

I need someone to give me the math but I'm betting the odds of a succesful fg from the one are greater than the odds of converting the td so why waste the opportunity to get one of the scores you need instead of potentially wasting valuable time off the clock? .

Because if you fail you still have the other team at their own 1. Prime spot for a safety.You have to go for the TD that close.

 

[donkshow]

TD and XPThe TD/2pt should always be the last one you do. Because if you miss the 2pt down 18 you are now 2tds away. Make the 2pt have to count when you're down by 8.

 

[SacramentoBob]

TD and XPThe TD/2pt should always be the last one you do. Because if you miss the 2pt down 18 you are now 2tds away. Make the 2pt have to count when you're down by 8.

Ooof.

 

[kentric]

If you have no confidence in your offense scoring from one yard out, how are you going to have confidence in them scoring twice more in 6 minutes? Plus, you're potentially saving 40+ yards - where you can kick a 50 yard FG at the end of the game. No brainer to me.

 

[Short Corner]

TD and XPThe TD/2pt should always be the last one you do. Because if you miss the 2pt down 18 you are now 2tds away. Make the 2pt have to count when you're down by 8.

Right, because you don't really wanna know if you need a TD or FG with the 3rd required score until it is too late.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Since I had the Pats -10, Houston should have kicked the FG and saved me the anxiety of a push screwing my parlay.

 

[Tau837]

At this point, votes are 75-3 in favor of going for the TD. I'm surprised there are that many votes for kicking the FG.

 

[SacramentoBob]

At this point, votes are 75-3 in favor of going for the TD. I'm surprised there are that many votes for kicking the FG.

I feel vindicated by the collective wisdom of the SP.

 

[bonesman]

six minutes isn't a lot of time to score twice but it's even less time if you still need three scores.

Oddly enough, it is exactly the same time.

no it's not... 2 scores in 6 min leaves you 3 min per score... 3 in 6 is 2 min per score. Relativity.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

six minutes isn't a lot of time to score twice but it's even less time if you still need three scores.

Oddly enough, it is exactly the same time.

no it's not... 2 scores in 6 min leaves you 3 min per score... 3 in 6 is 2 min per score. Relativity.

Pretty sure Einstein proved this like a hundred years ago.

 

[lod01]

Who's the team? If it's New England, tehy can kick the FG and still score TDs. If it's Kubiak led Houston, they better go for it because they suck in the redzone and may not get there 2 more times in 6 minutes.