5 RBs that could crash the top 10 party this year. (1 Viewer)

[Gawain]

Is anyone else worried about Daniel Thomas in a goalline role? Guy weighs 25 lbs more than Miller and only had two fewer TDs (6 to 4) on the ground than Bush did last year in about 40% of the carries.

 

[QuizGuy66]

If he stayed healthy, which may be a BIG if, I wouldn't be shocked if Chris Ivory made a run at the top 10.

You know Rex Ryan is going to run the ball, and you know he likes Ivory given the constant interest ultimately culminating in a 4th round pick being dealt for him. Shonn Greene, he of the 3.9 YPC, finished as RB17 in my .5 PPR last season. In 2011, he finished as RB19.

I know there are several red flags:

1) The Jets are a trainwreck. But they were last year as well and Greene still produced. They've always been able to run the ball.

2) Chris Ivory has struggled with injuries. Just a fact - he has. But I personally don't believe in the "injury prone" label too much. Anyone can get hurt at any point - it's the NFL. Just because it happens to a guy a few times in a row doesn't mean he's doomed, IMO.

3) Chris Ivory hasn't caught passes before. This is true, but would anyone really call Shonn Greene a great receiver?

I agree there's risk with Ivory, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him explode. Greene averaged exactly 4.00 YPC in the past two years, and finished both as a top-19 RB. Ivory's career average is 5.1.

I didn't realize that Ivory never has been a big pass catcher. Will have to watch that in the preseason. He definitely strikes me as a guy who could be a steal picked when 20-something RBs are off the board (I'm not rating him 20-somethingth, I'm just seeing where others will knock him down to where he could get drafted in that zone based on the low expectations of the Jets).

-QG

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Is anyone else worried about Daniel Thomas in a goalline role? Guy weighs 25 lbs more than Miller and only had two fewer TDs (6 to 4) on the ground than Bush did last year in about 40% of the carries.

Thomas was also given almost twice as many carries and had almost three times as many catches per game as did Miller last year. Personally I think that Miami is going to use both guys -- with the bulkier Thomas likely getting the short yardage and 3rd down (d/t blocking) work. I'm not taking a likely RBBC guy from an offense that ranked 27th last year (yards and points) as my RB2.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

Good post. Only two I would not hesitate to bet against are Morris and Forte, though I agree Forte is under the radar of most in top x considerations. Let's see Morris give a repeat performance and stay consistent to start the season, then I'd be on board with him. Everyone else on this list, tough to go against without the injury argument. And if injury is not a factor, DMF can be in the top 10 as well. He will be 90% of Raiders offense. Until he gets hurt.

I think it's funny that Morris seems to always get the "let's see if he can do it again" line. What about Richardson and Martin? Sure they're more taleneted, but it's not like they have a long line of producing in the NFL. Richardson already has injury concerns, but no one is doubting him as a top 10 guy this year. I just think Morris is going to surprise some people.

Well, for one thing, Morris got about 90% of the RB carries for his team, and a lot of people don't expect that to repeat. He also had 335 rush attempts where Martin had 319 and Richardson 267. Perhaps if Morris was more accomplished receiving out of the backfield or if Martin or Richardson had a slightly better RB2 behind them people would see things differently. Richardson appears to be less-unhealthy this year than last year and Martin gets the nice upgrade at both Guard positions, and they even shipped last years RB out of town without seeming to necessarily replace him.

Just some random thoughts.

I'm not saying you can't have your opinion. But it's not like Morris has super stars behind him either. Helu is coming back from missing the whole year, Royster is decent but nothing special, Thompson isn't a threat to carries (maybe some 3rd down playing time, but that's it), and Jamison isn't a lock to make the team.

Don't get me wrong, I'd certainly take Martin over Morris. But I think Richardson and Morris are about even. I don't think we'll see RG3 steal as many goal line TDs this year from Morris. Maybe he yards will be down some, but his TDs should stay the same. The Skins were a Top 5 offense and that was without Garcon for a good chunk and Fred Davis for most of the season.

Griffin only scored 3 rushing TDs from 5 yards out or less (5, 5 and 2). His other 4 rushing TDs were from 7, 7, 76 and 10. So he didn't really "steal" many goal-line TDs from Morris.

 

[JFS171]

The point about catch-up mode dinging Morris is absolutely legit. The only hope is that he gets enough work early in the game while it's "close" to keep him relatively productive week-to-week, even if they do get blown out.

His worst game last season came against Pittsburgh when the Redskins were losing 27-9 (I believe midway through the 3rd, but absolutely by the end of the 3rd). He ended up with only 59 yards on 13 carries.

I think Morris is an EXCELLENT RB 2 selection that's likely very consistent for 15-20 carries a week and very consistent for 75+ yards. More often than not, you'll get a TD or 100+ on the yardage, but the complete lack of involvement in the receiving game makes him a little more dangerous week to week in PPR formats, especially with a healthy Helu and Chris Thompson on the roster.

 

[Clifford]

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012102808/2012/REG8/redskins@steelers?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=highlights&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay

One of the games they got blown out in. Morris got carries but last series was all passes.

 

[johnadams]

Miller: I don't get this one at all. I'd say replicating Bush's numbers from last year would be a very positive sign, but the way the hype train is rolling, anything less than a top five finish will be a bust. The offense just isn't going to be dynamic enough.

I don't want to turn this into another Miller thread, but this speaks to the point I raised earlier about being top 8, top 15, top whatever. Keep in mind that as excited as some people are about Miller, he still hasn't broken into the top 20 RBs by ADP. If a guy who's going in the 20s finishes top 10, it's awesome. 15, still very good. 20, hey, at least you got expected value. As long as you don't build your draft around the presumption that one single player is absolutely going to be a superstar, you can definitely win a league with small victories.

you can also lose a league by whiffing on your third round pick. I like Miller as fifth rounder with upside. I don't like Miller as having an ill defined "good chance". You can pick 10 guys and say they have a "good chance" but without definition of the term, it's essentially meaningless. Yes, Miller might finish in the top 10. I wouldn't call it a "good chance" though. I'd put it at about 10% which is in the range of possible, but not likely.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Arian Foster-Not likely at all

Adrian Peterson-Even Less likely

Marshawn Lynch-no

Jamal Charles-Not this year

Ray Rice-Would be the first time in a while

C.J. Spiller-Most people would have a real hard time putting your guys in over him

Doug Martin-New kid #1 that everyone almost universally has as a top 5

Trent Richardson-New kid #2 see above

LeSean McCoy-Be really hard to bet against him

SJAX-every indicator points to a big year

Sproles-With the HC back, should be in for a return to top 10 consideration

Alfred Morris-The darling from last year

Gore-Mr. Been there, done that...every year for forever

Matt Forte-truly overlooked, relatively speaking

Good post. Only two I would not hesitate to bet against are Morris and Forte, though I agree Forte is under the radar of most in top x considerations. Let's see Morris give a repeat performance and stay consistent to start the season, then I'd be on board with him. Everyone else on this list, tough to go against without the injury argument. And if injury is not a factor, DMF can be in the top 10 as well. He will be 90% of Raiders offense. Until he gets hurt.

I think it's funny that Morris seems to always get the "let's see if he can do it again" line. What about Richardson and Martin? Sure they're more taleneted, but it's not like they have a long line of producing in the NFL. Richardson already has injury concerns, but no one is doubting him as a top 10 guy this year. I just think Morris is going to surprise some people.

Well, for one thing, Morris got about 90% of the RB carries for his team, and a lot of people don't expect that to repeat. He also had 335 rush attempts where Martin had 319 and Richardson 267. Perhaps if Morris was more accomplished receiving out of the backfield or if Martin or Richardson had a slightly better RB2 behind them people would see things differently. Richardson appears to be less-unhealthy this year than last year and Martin gets the nice upgrade at both Guard positions, and they even shipped last years RB out of town without seeming to necessarily replace him.

Just some random thoughts.

I'm not saying you can't have your opinion. But it's not like Morris has super stars behind him either. Helu is coming back from missing the whole year, Royster is decent but nothing special, Thompson isn't a threat to carries (maybe some 3rd down playing time, but that's it), and Jamison isn't a lock to make the team.

Don't get me wrong, I'd certainly take Martin over Morris. But I think Richardson and Morris are about even. I don't think we'll see RG3 steal as many goal line TDs this year from Morris. Maybe he yards will be down some, but his TDs should stay the same. The Skins were a Top 5 offense and that was without Garcon for a good chunk and Fred Davis for most of the season.

Griffin only scored 3 rushing TDs from 5 yards out or less (5, 5 and 2). His other 4 rushing TDs were from 7, 7, 76 and 10. So he didn't really "steal" many goal-line TDs from Morris.

They lucked out with Morris and hopefully he ends up being the guy for a long time. He can take a hit and get yards after contact, it was fun watching him run last year. My line of thinking when I said let's wait and see was less about his skills and production and more about what the team may do, so call it cautious optimism that isn't good for anyone hitting top 10 anything. These top x conversations typically include those names that are almost certainly a sure thing less injury, I can't put Morris there just yet.

This is coming from a guy who entered the Helu sweepstakes and got burned more than a few times so take this fwiw. I don't think Helu's days are done just yet, I think they take a long look at him during the preseason if he's ready to go by then to see what he has. By no means am I predicting that at this point in time Helu will unseat Morris as the incumbent going into the season, but between he and Royster they really don't know what to expect from either guy. If, a big if, Helu is ready and show signs of life as he has done before Morris came along last year, that will absolutely keep Morris from top 10 stats.

 

[Sweet Love]

I'll throw Shane Vereen out there in PPR...those balls have to go somewhere, and while everyone thinks they will route to the TE position, but that is not necessarily the case. Bellicheck has fooled us before (I remember I got Moss for a song his first year in NE and Welker was a UDFA in many leagues). He could go back to his old offense (he has the defense to do it) and ground and pound with Ridley and using Vereen in a Kevin Faulk-type role...but imagine a guy like Vereen who can actually run it too with the catching. He good have a balanced line, or he could have a Sproles-type line at the end of the year.

I do agree with Anarchy in that the top 10 usually fall out due to injury...and there are always guys who come out of nowhere (I like Monte Ball as much or more than Miller this year) to land in the top 10.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Presuming Peterson, Foster, Martin as top 2-3... which would mean Lynch and Rice would drop out. I think that's possible .... we do know every year it changes, it's just teh way of teh world.

Anyone have any further thoughts on Spiller making the jump, maybe even into the top 3? He was mentioned above in a list but not a lot of discussion.

Morris could be better, not worse.

And Forte in PPR.

 

[msudaisy26]

Here are some long shots

Mark Ingram - it is the Saints offense, he could easily see the end zone close to 15 time if he is healthy and if the Saints receivers get stopped inside the 5 a lot. He could also get 200 plus carries for the first time in his career if Sproles or Thomas get hurt and neither one of them are spring chickens.

Leveon Bell - Heath miller was the best red zone threat for the Steelers but he looks like he will start the year on PUP. Bell should win the job in camp/preseason and if he comes out strong he could be in line for a lot work in the red zone and in third downs where he is a above average pass catching back.

Lamar Miller - No need to go into detail with all the hype on the boards, top 5 is a long shot though.

Deangelo Williams - I can't believe I am sayin this but there is a possibility that Stewart isn't healthy all year and for a 30 year old back Williams has low miles. I could see him having a last hurrah like Curtis Martin did at a similar age, but touchdowns will be tough to come by with Cam.