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5 weeks in -- still unconvinced about Turner (1 Viewer)

koreansteve

koreansteve

Footballguy
I still haven't convinced myself that he's as great (or his line is as great) as his numbers indicate. He's posted huge numbers against DET, KC, and GB. they rank 30th, 31st, and 27th against the run, respectively. Against TB and CAR (14th and 13th against the run) he averaged 49 yds and had 0 TDs.

I am unconvinced that he will be able to have a decent day against a good rush DEF. CHI and PHI are next (4th and 8th against the run) which will be his biggest tests yet.

However, from week 9-14, the only rush defense in the top half of the league that he'll face is CAR. So perhaps as long as Turner owners can survive the next 3 weeks (CHI, bye, PHI) they will be in the clear.

But for me, I'm trying to dish Turner off for a RB like CJ3 and a decent WR.

Would love to hear your input.

 
When a guy is leading the league in rushing and TDs going into week 6, be convinced.

 
You would normally expect lower numbers out of any RB when they play better rush defenses. Is there a RB out there that only plays bad defenses?

Also, after watching the Redskins yesterday I'm not sure the Eagles are quite as good as their early numbers indicated.

 
PlasmaDogPlasma said:
You would normally expect lower numbers out of any RB when they play better rush defenses. Is there a RB out there that only plays bad defenses?Also, after watching the Redskins yesterday I'm not sure the Eagles are quite as good as their early numbers indicated.
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Agreed. the Eagles D is very effective when they can pressure the QB heavily. I think if the falcons try to keep it simple they can move the ball. In other words, don't make Ryan stand in the pocket too long. If all they do is run Burner, of course the eagles will bottle him up. It's predictable, but I think he'll be an OK start against them. The Eagles though, are a tough team to figure out. Portis really looked better as the game wore on. MT might do the same, but really, I think expectations should be slightly limited.Overall for Burner I think he is going to be solid all year. I actually was considering moving him last week in the one league I have him, but then thought better of it. Good thing too. I needed his points to win. For some reason, I found that his stats are not indicative of his value, so he's definitely a hold and ride out the season hoping he continues this pace.
 
koreansteve said:
I still haven't convinced myself that he's as great (or his line is as great) as his numbers indicate. He's posted huge numbers against DET, KC, and GB. they rank 30th, 31st, and 27th against the run, respectively. Against TB and CAR (14th and 13th against the run) he averaged 49 yds and had 0 TDs. I am unconvinced that he will be able to have a decent day against a good rush DEF. CHI and PHI are next (4th and 8th against the run) which will be his biggest tests yet. However, from week 9-14, the only rush defense in the top half of the league that he'll face is CAR. So perhaps as long as Turner owners can survive the next 3 weeks (CHI, bye, PHI) they will be in the clear.But for me, I'm trying to dish Turner off for a RB like CJ3 and a decent WR.Would love to hear your input.
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It's a valid concern, but the way he ran yesterday, I have no qualms about him being on my team. Also, not trying to discount the CHI D, but they've only faced 2 top 20 rushing teams so far (TB @ #9 being the highest). CAR ran for 110 and TB passed 67 times. This week against CHI will be a really good test for Michael Turner at home. After the GB game, defenses can't ignore Ryan-White anymore, and commit so many people to the box.End result, Turner definitely a hold, IMO.
 
Maybe MTO helped make DET, KC, and GB rank 30th, 31st, and 27th in Rush DEF.

I don't know...seems like if your #2RB (drafted when? 3rd round?) is able to single-handedly win you a game against bad DEF and put up 100/TD against so-so DEF...not sure what else you can ask for.

He has more TDs already than probably all but the top 15 RBs will put up all year...I'd be inclined to hold on to him after seeing him pound GB.

Plus, Ryan is getting more confident (already running the 2 min offense, finding Roddy White) which means teams will have to respect the run.

I might give you CJ4.24 (aka BBJ) and a WR for him....

 
I can't think of too many RBs I'd rather have instead of Turner. MB3, ADP, Portis maybe... ??? I think he's clearly a top 5 FF RB this year.

 
so you are whining that you can't pencil him in for the century mark and a touch? Check LT2's statline, or MB3 this week....

 
I was a bit slow to come around but I am becoming convinced and now believe he will be a top 10RB this year and maybe top 5? The Falcons are not a great team yet and with a rookie QB running the show he will have some great games and a few clunkers but the way the Falcons will win is by controlling the ball on offense and I think they can do enough of that to keep Turner solidly as a RB#1.

 
PlasmaDogPlasma said:
You would normally expect lower numbers out of any RB when they play better rush defenses. Is there a RB out there that only plays bad defenses?
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Agreed - Turner set the bar very high with his big first game and two others, but one has to be realistic. He'll be bottled up on occasion like any other RB out there.But the thing to remember is that he's the focal part of the offense, and contrary to what most expected going in, Atlanta is not only staying in games, but winning several of them.Honestly, I'd be more concerned about top-tier guys like LJ or Steven Jackson than Turner given the respective team situations.
 
Black said:
Maybe MTO helped make DET, KC, and GB rank 30th, 31st, and 27th in Rush DEF.
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:mellow: Don't worry about your RBs when they excel against poor defenses. Worry about them when they do horribly against poor defenses. And even then, only if it's a habit. Everyone has bad games, and everyone puts up goose eggs on occasion that mystify even the best prognosticator. \
 
Frankbot said:
I can't think of too many RBs I'd rather have instead of Turner. MB3, ADP, Portis maybe... ??? I think he's clearly a top 5 FF RB this year.
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I would rather have ADP, Ronnie Brown or Gore but he is definitely up there.
 
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The Noid said:
The Noid said:
Turner even/odd weeks = Moulds even/odd years phenomenon.
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Odd weeks: 146 yds rushing, 1.5 TDs per gameEven weeks: 52.5 yds rushing, 0 TDs per gameThis week is Week 10 in the NFL. Start Turner at your own risk...
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It seems to just be a scheduling thing that Atlanta has faced tougher defenses on even weeks thus far. As such, Turner's production has been less in those weeks, but probably would be the case for most RBs.At some point, and perhaps even this week, that even/odd trend will end and I wouldn't want to be stashing him on the bench while trying to gauge the odds.
 
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The Noid said:
The Noid said:
Turner even/odd weeks = Moulds even/odd years phenomenon.
Click to expand...
Odd weeks: 146 yds rushing, 1.5 TDs per gameEven weeks: 52.5 yds rushing, 0 TDs per gameThis week is Week 10 in the NFL. Start Turner at your own risk...
Click to expand...
Turner would have more yards or TD's if he wasn't sharing with Norwood, and if he had more opportunities at the goal line. Norwood has vultured some goal line situations, but also the Falcons have passed the ball at the goal line as well (which probably cost them a TD against Philly).
 
I can see a down week against the Saints. If NO gets out to an early lead (and their offense is certainly capable of that) then ATL may be forced to abandon the run.

I am a Turner owner but I'll likely not play him this week. (I have ridiculously good options though... )

 
bollocks28 said:
I can see a down week against the Saints. If NO gets out to an early lead (and their offense is certainly capable of that) then ATL may be forced to abandon the run.
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I think the Falcons D has improved over the course of the season, so they could slow down that high octane offense of the Saints. You never know what will happen in a game, but I think the Falcons have the confidence and talent to stay in this game, and to possibly pull out a win.
 
bollocks28 said:
I can see a down week against the Saints. If NO gets out to an early lead (and their offense is certainly capable of that) then ATL may be forced to abandon the run. I am a Turner owner but I'll likely not play him this week. (I have ridiculously good options though... )
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I'm also in a quandry about MT this wk with:ADP vs GBMT vs NOTJones vs STLHightower vs SFAll are very juicy matchups for me, but note that ATL plays at home and they have excelled at home so far this season. However, NO just had their bye week and IIRC, they had quite a bit of defensive personnel hurt. Does anybody have an update on the Saints defense, sprecifically the run defense?
 
simey said:
bollocks28 said:
I can see a down week against the Saints. If NO gets out to an early lead (and their offense is certainly capable of that) then ATL may be forced to abandon the run.
Click to expand...
I think the Falcons D has improved over the course of the season, so they could slow down that high octane offense of the Saints. You never know what will happen in a game, but I think the Falcons have the confidence and talent to stay in this game, and to possibly pull out a win.
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Well, fortunately, we have a premier pass rusher in Abraham and that's the key, IMO. If we can make Brees uncomfortable all day, we can slow them down. If he's got time to throw, he'll rip our secondary apart. We need multiple sacks from multiple sources, limit first downs, get them off the field quickly.
 
To get back on topic, I have 0 issues starting Turner this week, and fully expect a big day. I think we can keep it close enough, if it becomes a shootout, to not have to become one-dimensional.

 
My issue with him is I have hard time starting him when not playing a cake D in a PPR league if I have comparable matchups elsewhere. For example I plan on rolling with Deangelo this week instead to go with MJD. But man this guy would be a stud though if he got some screen pass love.

 
I don't know how all the alternates did but a solid 27/97/1 day for Turner today. Right now the biggest enemy to Turner's numbers might be Norwood. He looked stellar yesterday.

 
PatrickT said:
I don't know how all the alternates did but a solid 27/97/1 day for Turner today. Right now the biggest enemy to Turner's numbers might be Norwood. He looked stellar yesterday.
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Norwood rushed 6 times for 17 yards. It was Norwood's receiving that got him the big numbers, especially the catch he took in 67 yards for a TD.
 
omally said:
PatrickT said:
I don't know how all the alternates did but a solid 27/97/1 day for Turner today. Right now the biggest enemy to Turner's numbers might be Norwood. He looked stellar yesterday.
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Norwood rushed 6 times for 17 yards. It was Norwood's receiving that got him the big numbers, especially the catch he took in 67 yards for a TD.
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Yes, and whether it's receiving or rushing, it's touches being taken from Turner. Now, Turner had 27 touches, so certainly no harm done yesterday, but the better Norwood plays, the more Atlanta will find ways to use him. He also got more touches than normal since they were protecting the lead by burning clock. It should also be noted that it wasn't just that Norwood got 17 yards, it was the way he got them, with some tough running in the middle, not just around the edges. Atlanta really looks comfortable with either in the backfield right now, that's all I'm saying, it's worth keeping an eye on.
 
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