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5 Year Look At PPR (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter wannabee
- Start date
wannabee
Footballguy
Maybe. But, I have to admit I was surprised on two counts: how well QBs performed, even with 4 point pass TDs, and how well Rbs performed relative to WRs with PPR. I think many, like me, assumed WRs would have rated better.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It does when those WRs break out. For example Lee Evans this year. He would have been considered a WR3 or WR4 in previous 2 seasons because of lower numbers from PPR.I am sure there are several more examples.These guys will rocket in terms of trade value when they do break out for the teams lucky enough to have them.Some lower tier RBs will break out as well. But they are more picked over at a higher investment in most cases and I don't think offer as much as a whole in terms of trade value panning out. I think the numbers show this pretty clearly.
code
Footballguy
Maybe my perspective is skewed because my primary league uses a similar format (1RB, 2WR, 2Flex, 0.5ppr), but I thought this was a well known theory, not specific to either ppr or this kind of flex format...the fact that every year a few mid-tier WRs who can be had cheap in the draft break out and represent major value...If I understood the post above I thought the argument was that wannabees format uniquely valued mid tier WR...Biabreakable said:
AcerFC
Footballguy
Wannabee, Thanks for all of the work. I much prefer to read strategy posts like this more so then the normal post in the SP.
Having said that, I wonder what differentiating PPR to different positions does to your analysis. In my league we have ppr for RBs at 0.5, 1 ppr for WR and 1.5 for TE. The initial goal in having this format was to level the playing field (for all positions as you have stated was the reason for your league as well).
I have only looked at the top 30 beacuse I have to teach in a minute but our distribution for start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Flex (RB-WR) and IDP is as follows:
13 WRs in top 30
1 TE
8 RBs
8 QBs
We do have some bonus points added for 100 yard games and such but it is still interesting to note the difference in breakdown. Gotta teach Ill be back to hear what you have to say
Thanks again for the thread
Having said that, I wonder what differentiating PPR to different positions does to your analysis. In my league we have ppr for RBs at 0.5, 1 ppr for WR and 1.5 for TE. The initial goal in having this format was to level the playing field (for all positions as you have stated was the reason for your league as well).
I have only looked at the top 30 beacuse I have to teach in a minute but our distribution for start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Flex (RB-WR) and IDP is as follows:
13 WRs in top 30
1 TE
8 RBs
8 QBs
We do have some bonus points added for 100 yard games and such but it is still interesting to note the difference in breakdown. Gotta teach Ill be back to hear what you have to say
Thanks again for the thread
code
Footballguy
Noting again that this is ppg, but not VBD-value...PPR actually mutes the value of TDs for WRs relative to receptions, which I suspect may actually decrease their VBD-value...
Family Matters
Footballguy
Thanks to wannabe for getting this thread up and running. Many good comments in here for sure. Rather than rehash what most have already realized I thought I'd lend a different perspective.
1. Top level RB's are still the key to winning championships in most formats. Better get them while you can because the laws of supply and demand are always in play.
2. WR's are deep and can be found when RB's can't. You can afford to wait on them until you get your RB's. Further you can always find a few rookies worth drafting in dynasty leagues.
3. Historical data is great in understanding what happened. Making that work for you going forward is where the translation can become a challenge.
Wannabe's post does a great job of looking back and identifying what worked in this league. Clearly you can see what strategies can work when applied with knowledge of the outocmes to work with. But how does one use this going forward? This is what you need to know in order to make this pay off for you.
In this format for example, you still need a quality RB to have a good chance of success. Without a good RB your team cannot likely make a serious title run. So if you don't already have one then try to get one. Either make someone an offer or dientify one you can draft. Absent of this your likely not going to win. So this leads to one of the keys in winning consistently in fantsy football. Identifying good RB;s and getting one or more on your team.
Earlier, EBF said he would rather have Holt than Addai. Hard to argue that but it really depends on your situation. I drafted Addai (in the 4th round) thinking more about next year and after than this year. Of course I knew the opportunity was there for him to do well this year and it would depend on how things unfolded. But after this year I feel Addai's value is greather than Holt's from a dynasty perspective. When Holt plays next year he will be 31 and entering his 9th year. He on the beginning of a downhill trend. Addai is just getting started and will likely be the man going forward in a great offense. For my money, Addai is the better choice for a dynasty team.
Identifying good RB's is a skill that will serve you well in fantasy football. Finding little differences such as good pass catching RB's in PPR leagues can make a huge difference. Clinton Portis is a RB I like. But not as much in PPR leagues. Jackson, Westbrook and Tiki (not dyanstyof course) will be on my teams in PPR leagues.
Of course everyone knows to draft guys like LT and LJ. We already know how good they are. But how many knew to draft Jackson 3 years ago? There were many that felt he wasn't one of the best RB options coming out of college. But when you look at things you realize he was productive in college, a good reciever and could pass block decently. Being drafted as Faulk's successor made him even more attractive as the track record was there for his role. To me he was an excllent choice. And his preseason performance further supported his potential. He had the 3 things I look for when evaluating RB's:
1. Talent.
2. Opportunity.
3. Motivation.
There is no way to know for sure how a player will turn out, lord knows we'[ve seen our share of busts over the years but if a player has these 3 things then he has potential to succeed. As for coaching changes, they do affect the player's future. But talented players will usually survive, somewhere anyway.
Lastly, when you get great RB's on your team, do not trade them away for picks or WR's. Unless the offer is crazy good. Their value is too high and you can always find WR's on the waiver wire or in the draft. In fact you might consider making one of those crazy offers to get a player like LT but never trade them away unless they are on the downside of their careers and someone will pay for the past.
BTW-In this league (12 teams) RB's took 6 of the overall top 12 spots. Only 1 was a WR. In spite of 5 being QB's, well we know we can get a good one later in the draft, after we take care of our RB's.
1. Top level RB's are still the key to winning championships in most formats. Better get them while you can because the laws of supply and demand are always in play.
2. WR's are deep and can be found when RB's can't. You can afford to wait on them until you get your RB's. Further you can always find a few rookies worth drafting in dynasty leagues.
3. Historical data is great in understanding what happened. Making that work for you going forward is where the translation can become a challenge.
Wannabe's post does a great job of looking back and identifying what worked in this league. Clearly you can see what strategies can work when applied with knowledge of the outocmes to work with. But how does one use this going forward? This is what you need to know in order to make this pay off for you.
In this format for example, you still need a quality RB to have a good chance of success. Without a good RB your team cannot likely make a serious title run. So if you don't already have one then try to get one. Either make someone an offer or dientify one you can draft. Absent of this your likely not going to win. So this leads to one of the keys in winning consistently in fantsy football. Identifying good RB;s and getting one or more on your team.
Earlier, EBF said he would rather have Holt than Addai. Hard to argue that but it really depends on your situation. I drafted Addai (in the 4th round) thinking more about next year and after than this year. Of course I knew the opportunity was there for him to do well this year and it would depend on how things unfolded. But after this year I feel Addai's value is greather than Holt's from a dynasty perspective. When Holt plays next year he will be 31 and entering his 9th year. He on the beginning of a downhill trend. Addai is just getting started and will likely be the man going forward in a great offense. For my money, Addai is the better choice for a dynasty team.
Identifying good RB's is a skill that will serve you well in fantasy football. Finding little differences such as good pass catching RB's in PPR leagues can make a huge difference. Clinton Portis is a RB I like. But not as much in PPR leagues. Jackson, Westbrook and Tiki (not dyanstyof course) will be on my teams in PPR leagues.
Of course everyone knows to draft guys like LT and LJ. We already know how good they are. But how many knew to draft Jackson 3 years ago? There were many that felt he wasn't one of the best RB options coming out of college. But when you look at things you realize he was productive in college, a good reciever and could pass block decently. Being drafted as Faulk's successor made him even more attractive as the track record was there for his role. To me he was an excllent choice. And his preseason performance further supported his potential. He had the 3 things I look for when evaluating RB's:
1. Talent.
2. Opportunity.
3. Motivation.
There is no way to know for sure how a player will turn out, lord knows we'[ve seen our share of busts over the years but if a player has these 3 things then he has potential to succeed. As for coaching changes, they do affect the player's future. But talented players will usually survive, somewhere anyway.
Lastly, when you get great RB's on your team, do not trade them away for picks or WR's. Unless the offer is crazy good. Their value is too high and you can always find WR's on the waiver wire or in the draft. In fact you might consider making one of those crazy offers to get a player like LT but never trade them away unless they are on the downside of their careers and someone will pay for the past.
BTW-In this league (12 teams) RB's took 6 of the overall top 12 spots. Only 1 was a WR. In spite of 5 being QB's, well we know we can get a good one later in the draft, after we take care of our RB's.
EBF
Footballguy
Holt might not have been the best example given his age. How about Chad Johnson or Anquan Boldin? I'd take both of them over Addai. They're better players and they appear to have a lot left in the tank. I agree that RBs are very important. The trick is finding the right ones. I agree that situation is very important. I might get slammed for this, but I don't think Addai has any more talent than someone like LenDale White or Chris Perry. The only difference is that Addai went to a stacked team with no competition for touches. The thing that scares me about this kind of player is the possibility of getting replaced by a superior talent. Very few marginal RBs last as starters in the NFL. There's always someone chomping at their heels. The best case scenario is a guy like Steven Jackson. Not only is a he a very solid talent, but he's also on a great offense. You can't beat that. As a side note, I think it's worth pointing out that the league champion started 1 RB and 4 WRs. Then again, Tomlinson practically counts as 2 RBs, so maybe we shouldn't read much into that.
Family Matters
Footballguy
This is great example of what I was trying to say. Because he took LT and LT is as good as he is, he had options. You can't do that with RB 8-12. But LT is so much better than the rest it allowed him to be flexible in his draft.You asked me if I would take Addai over Chad or Boldin. The question didn't apply to this draft. Chad and Boldin went in the 2nd round. Addai went in the 4th. So I guess you could of had Addai and Chad. Next year will likely be different in a redraft. Addai will go anyhwere from the late first to the second depending on what happens this off season. If they proclaim him the starter then his value goes up and perhaps I want him over Boldin as my RB2 and am willing to wait for my WR1. Chad is too tempting to pass on. It also depends on who my RB1 is. With LT on board I take Chad without question.As for picking the right one. The reason I like Addai is becuase of Indy. He's in a great situation and they are proving they are willing to utilize him. He has talent, opportunity and motivation. Perry and White are in different situations. In fact, I like Perry but he's missing a key ingrediant, opportunity.
Excellent post, FM. For the highest-scoring players, the variability from year-to-year is extremely high for both RBs and WRs. Suppose you were going to use the top-12 RBs in 2000 as the basis for an initial dynasty draft prior to the beginning of the 2001 season. In addition, let’s exclude any RB older than 27. With these criteria, the eligible players would have been the following (age and FF pts in 2000 in parens, no ppr), and the table shows where each RB finished the next 6 years:Thanks to wannabe for getting this thread up and running. Many good comments in here for sure. Rather than rehash what most have already realized I thought I'd lend a different perspective.1. Top level RB's are still the key to winning championships in most formats. Better get them while you can because the laws of supply and demand are always in play.2. WR's are deep and can be found when RB's can't. You can afford to wait on them until you get your RB's. Further you can always find a few rookies worth drafting in dynasty leagues.3. Historical data is great in understanding what happened. Making that work for you going forward is where the translation can become a challenge.Wannabe's post does a great job of looking back and identifying what worked in this league. Clearly you can see what strategies can work when applied with knowledge of the outocmes to work with. But how does one use this going forward? This is what you need to know in order to make this pay off for you.In this format for example, you still need a quality RB to have a good chance of success. Without a good RB your team cannot likely make a serious title run. So if you don't already have one then try to get one. Either make someone an offer or dientify one you can draft. Absent of this your likely not going to win. So this leads to one of the keys in winning consistently in fantsy football. Identifying good RB;s and getting one or more on your team.Earlier, EBF said he would rather have Holt than Addai. Hard to argue that but it really depends on your situation. I drafted Addai (in the 4th round) thinking more about next year and after than this year. Of course I knew the opportunity was there for him to do well this year and it would depend on how things unfolded. But after this year I feel Addai's value is greather than Holt's from a dynasty perspective. When Holt plays next year he will be 31 and entering his 9th year. He on the beginning of a downhill trend. Addai is just getting started and will likely be the man going forward in a great offense. For my money, Addai is the better choice for a dynasty team.Identifying good RB's is a skill that will serve you well in fantasy football. Finding little differences such as good pass catching RB's in PPR leagues can make a huge difference. Clinton Portis is a RB I like. But not as much in PPR leagues. Jackson, Westbrook and Tiki (not dyanstyof course) will be on my teams in PPR leagues. Of course everyone knows to draft guys like LT and LJ. We already know how good they are. But how many knew to draft Jackson 3 years ago? There were many that felt he wasn't one of the best RB options coming out of college. But when you look at things you realize he was productive in college, a good reciever and could pass block decently. Being drafted as Faulk's successor made him even more attractive as the track record was there for his role. To me he was an excllent choice. And his preseason performance further supported his potential. He had the 3 things I look for when evaluating RB's:1. Talent.2. Opportunity.3. Motivation.There is no way to know for sure how a player will turn out, lord knows we'[ve seen our share of busts over the years but if a player has these 3 things then he has potential to succeed. As for coaching changes, they do affect the player's future. But talented players will usually survive, somewhere anyway.Lastly, when you get great RB's on your team, do not trade them away for picks or WR's. Unless the offer is crazy good. Their value is too high and you can always find WR's on the waiver wire or in the draft. In fact you might consider making one of those crazy offers to get a player like LT but never trade them away unless they are on the downside of their careers and someone will pay for the past.BTW-In this league (12 teams) RB's took 6 of the overall top 12 spots. Only 1 was a WR. In spite of 5 being QB's, well we know we can get a good one later in the draft, after we take care of our RB's.
Faulk was the #1 RB in the next year 2001, but finished outside the top-10 RBs in the next 5 years. Barber was the most consistent -- finishing as RB6 in 2002, RB2 in 2004, RB4 in 2005, and RB7 in 2006 (non-ppr). For rookies, Tomlinson finished as RB7 in 2001 and was the only rookie to make it into the top-10 in 2001. Portis finished as RB4 in 2002 as a rookie. McGahee finished as RB9 in 2004, and MJD finished as RB8 in 2006 as rookies. No other rookies broke into the top-10 RBs from 2001 to 2006.Results similar to the above apply to both RBs and WRs and to both ppr and non-ppr leagues. Trying to identify players who can form the basis of a dynasty team is an extremely dicey proposition, IMO. You really need to depend on depth and the laws of probability (and a large measure of good luck doesn’t hurt).
wannabee
Footballguy
Hey, thank you for the kind words. I know you had 13 WRs in the top 30, but how about the top 10? The reason I ask is because those top RBs and QBs, along with a middle of the road vet WR will easily make it worth it to hoard up on RB. To me, we WAY underestimate the value of the top players. I say this because the top RBs will outproduce the average RB1s by enough to overcome many injuries or other issues.To me, the difference in points per game will bear this out in great detail.
wannabee
Footballguy
Family Matters said:Thanks to wannabe for getting this thread up and running. Many good comments in here for sure. Rather than rehash what most have already realized I thought I'd lend a different perspective.1. Top level RB's are still the key to winning championships in most formats. Better get them while you can because the laws of supply and demand are always in play.2. WR's are deep and can be found when RB's can't. You can afford to wait on them until you get your RB's. Further you can always find a few rookies worth drafting in dynasty leagues.3. Historical data is great in understanding what happened. Making that work for you going forward is where the translation can become a challenge.Wannabe's post does a great job of looking back and identifying what worked in this league. Clearly you can see what strategies can work when applied with knowledge of the outocmes to work with. But how does one use this going forward? This is what you need to know in order to make this pay off for you.In this format for example, you still need a quality RB to have a good chance of success. Without a good RB your team cannot likely make a serious title run. So if you don't already have one then try to get one. Either make someone an offer or dientify one you can draft. Absent of this your likely not going to win. So this leads to one of the keys in winning consistently in fantsy football. Identifying good RB;s and getting one or more on your team.Earlier, EBF said he would rather have Holt than Addai. Hard to argue that but it really depends on your situation. I drafted Addai (in the 4th round) thinking more about next year and after than this year. Of course I knew the opportunity was there for him to do well this year and it would depend on how things unfolded. But after this year I feel Addai's value is greather than Holt's from a dynasty perspective. When Holt plays next year he will be 31 and entering his 9th year. He on the beginning of a downhill trend. Addai is just getting started and will likely be the man going forward in a great offense. For my money, Addai is the better choice for a dynasty team.Identifying good RB's is a skill that will serve you well in fantasy football. Finding little differences such as good pass catching RB's in PPR leagues can make a huge difference. Clinton Portis is a RB I like. But not as much in PPR leagues. Jackson, Westbrook and Tiki (not dyanstyof course) will be on my teams in PPR leagues. Of course everyone knows to draft guys like LT and LJ. We already know how good they are. But how many knew to draft Jackson 3 years ago? There were many that felt he wasn't one of the best RB options coming out of college. But when you look at things you realize he was productive in college, a good reciever and could pass block decently. Being drafted as Faulk's successor made him even more attractive as the track record was there for his role. To me he was an excllent choice. And his preseason performance further supported his potential. He had the 3 things I look for when evaluating RB's:1. Talent.2. Opportunity.3. Motivation.There is no way to know for sure how a player will turn out, lord knows we'[ve seen our share of busts over the years but if a player has these 3 things then he has potential to succeed. As for coaching changes, they do affect the player's future. But talented players will usually survive, somewhere anyway.Lastly, when you get great RB's on your team, do not trade them away for picks or WR's. Unless the offer is crazy good. Their value is too high and you can always find WR's on the waiver wire or in the draft. In fact you might consider making one of those crazy offers to get a player like LT but never trade them away unless they are on the downside of their careers and someone will pay for the past.BTW-In this league (12 teams) RB's took 6 of the overall top 12 spots. Only 1 was a WR. In spite of 5 being QB's, well we know we can get a good one later in the draft, after we take care of our RB's.
FMI know many of us feel like we cannot be surprised. But, I was surprised about some of the results. I underestimated the "LT Effect" or the effect of the stud players and the difference in ppg between the top RBs and the average RB1. Also, I would not have guessed how productive QBs would be and how even QB12 performed decent and made it into the Top 30.Thanks again for the comments, FM and EBF.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ahhh I think I am tracking with you now.No I don't think the format in terms of starters has a great effect on mid-lower tier WRs becoming more valuable. The multiple flex options diminishes a WRs value compared to RBs actualy only being required to start one of them. That is somewhat uniqe. But in a more negative way in regards to WR value.
The PPR does help these WRs more than in non-PPR leagues however because of the double dipping award they get.
AcerFC
Footballguy
There was only one in the top 10 (Harrison) and Wayne was 11.6 RBS and 3 QBs
wannabee
Footballguy
See, this is what I was thinking. The points per game differencebetween the top 2-3 players and the top WR is usually a decent amount. This dropoff is something many of us overlook. Having the stud makes up for many deficiencies.
