6 pts per passing TD (1 Viewer)

[Tchula]

what if youre in a 16 team league and you know based on history that around 12 qb's will be selected by the early 3rd round? Does this muddy the waters any? Every year at least a couple late 1st round RB's always seem to flounder. Slaton and Jacobs last year for example. Barring injury, this just doesnt happen often with a stud QB. And injuries seem to happen less often at QB than at RB or even WR.

 

[ookook]

As far as the relevant benchmark, one reason the worst starter is used is to model what would happen if I waited to be the very last person to select that position.

But say you were interested in modeling the 11th pick of a draft where you think there will have been 8 RBs taken and 2 WRs. So QB1 to QB12, RB9 to RB24, and WR3 to WR36, based on a starting line-up of 1QB, 2RB, and 3WR and an assumption that every team will fill all of those starters in the first 6 rounds. Let's use 6 pt per passing TD and -1 per INT.

The top QB will be expected to score about 26 FPPG, whereas the 12th is about 21. So at that point waiting to be last would cost you about 5 pts per game.

RB9 will score about 12.5 FPPG, but the 24th will score about 9.5, so 3.

WR3 will get about 11.25 FPPG, the 36th about 6.5 PPG, so 4.75.

So with that scoring, it would suggest it is about even WR or QB at that pick. If it were also PPR, WR would have greater drop.

But this was pretty much from my head, so don't sue me if the numbers are off.

 

[bootster21]

Here are the QBs of league winners: (Everything is rounded down to the nearest 100 or 5. So some of the 30s are actually 31, the 4000s actually 4037, etc...)2004 - Donovan McNabb (4000 yards, 30 TDs)2005 - Carson Palmer (4000 yards, 30 TDs)2006 - Peyton Manning (4400 yards, 30 TDs)2007 - Tony Romo (4200 yards, 35 TDs)2008 - Tyler Thigpen (that was me...Brady got injured) but 2nd place had: Kurt Warner (4500 yards, 30 TDs)2009 - Matt Schaub (4700 yards, 30 TDs)With the exception of my team in 2008 (I lost Brady), every single playoff team had a QB within 200 yards of 4000 and within 2 TDs of 30 (or more in each case).

Yeah, but how many of these were taken early? Probably not 2004 McNabb (coming off a 16-TD season) 2005 Palmer, 2007 Romo, 2008 Thigpen, or 2009 Schaub. (Or 2008 Kurt Warner, for that matter). So actually, only one of your championship QBs in the past six years was taken early, so this (limited) data set would suggest that the key to winning is to take something other than a QB early, and find a productive QB later.

You can argue that the only QB taken in the 1st or 2nd round on the above list is Peyton, which makes the rest of the argument moot. I think the real point here is that a good QB definitely helps you get to the playoffs, but it is where you draft them that determines if you have a championship team or not. Drafting a QB early makes it really tough for you to draft a solid overall team.There is a breakout QB every year, or at least one that will crack the top 5 that wasn't even a top 10 scorer the year before. If you can find this player in Rounds 6+, then that is what is going to give you a great team, not drafting one in the 1st or 2nd rounds.

 

[ookook]

BTW, I was on the Schaub bandwagon in last year's drafts in part based on some analysis on Football Outsiders that equates bettter for strength of defense.

This year, not as much jumps out at me. Favre looks to have a good ADP for his performance.

Alternatively, I am planning to get Big Ben late in some leagues and look at Delhomme or Smith to tide me over until he gets back (based on SOS).

And of course Cutler.

The earliest of those is Cutler, whose ADP is like 75. So if he or Eli is there in the 7th, I will take them. If not, look for Favre, Kolb, or McNabb in the 8th. Failing that, Ben in the 9th or maybe Henne in the 10th.

 

[Bamac]

OK: if you're thinking of dropoff in terms of percentages, your reasoning makes sense. Problem is, there's no reason to think of dropoff in percentages: it should be in terms of fantasy points.

Also, the bolded statement re: INTs hints that you still don't quite get the concept. Negative points for INTs actually increases the value of the top QBs, since the top QBs tend to throw fewer INTs than the mediocre ones--thus increasing the point differential between the top QBs and the mediocre ones. And that point differential is all that matters.

I was only using percentages because the poster I was refuting wasn't using fantasy points (or at least appeared to not be using them with the QB1 WR6 vs. QB6 WR1 comparison that he said was invalid). You are correct about the INTs normalizing the QB position but I was throwing that out there more because it makes the QB scoring more consistent. Also, when I am using a percentage when rating within a position I am assuming (as I stated before) that I am measuring the percentage of points scored for a team of an average starter first. This boils down to the same thing and in effect you are just measuring point differential.

I think we're on the same page. I should have read more from the poster you were arguing against, instead of just the quotes.And I agree, INTs could go either way. If INTs are unpredictable, they might lower QB value slightly, but my hunch is that low INT usually correlates with high yards/TDs, at least among fantasy-relevant QBs.

 

[OnTheReg]

I tend to agree with waiting on a QB till about the 3rd. But what does everyone feel about a league like mine, where you get two keepers apiece? Some QBs such as Rivers are already kept, so people tend to draft a QB early. My keepers are CJ and Desean Jackson and I pick 10th out of a 10 teamer. Would you grab best available QB there, since its basically the third round? I mean QBs like Brees, Rodgers, Manning and probably Brady will be gone. The reason that Rivers is kept is we can only keep players drafted in the fifth round or later, and Rivers has been kept for awhile. Anybody else in a league like this? If so what's your strategy?

 

[CalBear]

I tend to agree with waiting on a QB till about the 3rd. But what does everyone feel about a league like mine, where you get two keepers apiece? Some QBs such as Rivers are already kept, so people tend to draft a QB early. My keepers are CJ and Desean Jackson and I pick 10th out of a 10 teamer. Would you grab best available QB there, since its basically the third round? I mean QBs like Brees, Rodgers, Manning and probably Brady will be gone. The reason that Rivers is kept is we can only keep players drafted in the fifth round or later, and Rivers has been kept for awhile. Anybody else in a league like this? If so what's your strategy?

If you can only keep players drafted in the fifth round or later, the first round is not at all like the third round. How many of the keepers would have been first round picks? Almost certainly less than half, maybe less than 20%. So your first round is pretty close to a first round, with a few players like Ray Rice already gone. I don't think Rivers and a couple other QBs being gone should change your strategy much. It means he's not available, but it also means those owners won't be taking a QB early. There is still less scarcity at QB than at other positions, so the RBs kept will increase RB scarcity more than the QBs kept increase QB scarcity.

 

[LawFitz]

I realize now that everyone has their style when it comes to playing this game.

I for one, would never, ever take a RB with injury issues on what has been the worst team in football over the last two seasons and continues to have a sketch OL ahead of Aaron Rodgers (or if you're injury-risk averse, Drew Brees).

But that's just me. RBs get hurt way too often to trust any but the elite (CJ, AP, MJD, Rice and maybe Gore if you can get over his injury history) in the first ten picks of drafts IMO. The only others I would even consider would be Turner or DWill but they each have some additional warts besides general RB injury risk.

RBs carry bigger injury risk so I expect bigger production as in the case of the elites to justify the opporunity cost of a much safer elite QB in the early rounds. Rodgers is a bit of an exception here as I think he carries pretty significant injury risk of his own, but he also I think puts up better and more consistent production game to game than the other elite QBs thanks to his rushing abiliity. So his risk profile actually feels almost like an early round RB this season with higher predicted relative production but higher risk of injury.

 

[OnTheReg]

I tend to agree with waiting on a QB till about the 3rd. But what does everyone feel about a league like mine, where you get two keepers apiece? Some QBs such as Rivers are already kept, so people tend to draft a QB early. My keepers are CJ and Desean Jackson and I pick 10th out of a 10 teamer. Would you grab best available QB there, since its basically the third round? I mean QBs like Brees, Rodgers, Manning and probably Brady will be gone. The reason that Rivers is kept is we can only keep players drafted in the fifth round or later, and Rivers has been kept for awhile. Anybody else in a league like this? If so what's your strategy?

If you can only keep players drafted in the fifth round or later, the first round is not at all like the third round. How many of the keepers would have been first round picks? Almost certainly less than half, maybe less than 20%. So your first round is pretty close to a first round, with a few players like Ray Rice already gone. I don't think Rivers and a couple other QBs being gone should change your strategy much. It means he's not available, but it also means those owners won't be taking a QB early. There is still less scarcity at QB than at other positions, so the RBs kept will increase RB scarcity more than the QBs kept increase QB scarcity.

Well its not the fifth round from last year, its whenever they were drafted. For instance, AP in his rookie season was a fifth rounder, I got Chris Johnson in the 8th his rookie year, etc. So each team has at the very least a borderline first rounder kept.

 

[Ray_T]

I have always been in favor of drafting a QB early because I play in 6 points per passing TD. I am drafting in the 8th spot this year and have my heart set on Andre Johnson or Fitz, but if Rodgers or Bree's lasts this long should I be considering taking a QB as my first round draft pick. 12 man ppr league with a flex.

At 6 points per TD, the top 2 or 3 QB's are usually worth considering late in the first round. Especially if you are in a 12 team league.

 

[fightingillini]

One thing that can be said for taking an elite QB early is that it definitely nets you some consistency. We've had a guy take Peyton Manning in the first round, regardless of which spot, every year for the better part of a decade.He ALWAYS ended up in the playoffs. Now, he only won once, because Manning sits so much in week 16, but the rest of his team wasn't that great. He didn't make incredible waiver moves week in and week out. He has a normal team, with Peyton giving huge points every single week. It's a pretty even league of skilled owners...Here are the QBs of league winners: (Everything is rounded down to the nearest 100 or 5. So some of the 30s are actually 31, the 4000s actually 4037, etc...)2004 - Donovan McNabb (4000 yards, 30 TDs)2005 - Carson Palmer (4000 yards, 30 TDs)2006 - Peyton Manning (4400 yards, 30 TDs)2007 - Tony Romo (4200 yards, 35 TDs)2008 - Tyler Thigpen (that was me...Brady got injured) but 2nd place had: Kurt Warner (4500 yards, 30 TDs)2009 - Matt Schaub (4700 yards, 30 TDs)With the exception of my team in 2008 (I lost Brady), every single playoff team had a QB within 200 yards of 4000 and within 2 TDs of 30 (or more in each case).We give 6 pts to all TDs. I think it goes to show that having a top QB is typically extremely important, and the main milestone appears ot be a 30 TD season, especially since so many guys throw for close to 4000 yards.

I've always found this to be the case as well. I've done a lot of tinkering in the format with where I take my QB and I've always done best when I'm able to grab a "plug it and forget it QB" preferably in the second to third round. Playing the WW has also worked but you really need to hit on the majority of your sleepers and then get really lucky in picking who'll do the best week to week, because it's hard to make up the thirty some points elite QBs make when your guy puts up less then 5 on the worst ranked pass D.

I also like getting an every week starter at QB. IMO, the best strategy for QB drafting is as follows:1) Determine the number of QBs that you would be happy as your weekly starter (plug and forget). For me, that's Rodgers, Peyton, Brees, Schaub, Romo, Rivers , Brady, and Favre (assuming he plays). 8 QBs for me. The next tier that consists of Eli Manning, Cutler, Flacco, Ryan, Kolb, McNabb, and Big Ben have too many question marks for me to rely on every week.2) Determine the highest ADP for the QBs on your list. Excluding Favre, the highest ADP on this list is about pick 47 or end of 4th round in a 12 team league3) Start looking for a QB 2 rounds earlier that. So I start looking with my 3rd round pick.This year the hot spot is the tier with Schaub, Romo, Rivers. You should get one of these guys with your 3rd or 4th round pick. And it allows you to take your RB1 and WR1 in the first 2 rounds.So I agree that taking a QB in the 1st is generally a losing proposition in leagues that start 1 QB....even in 6 pt per TD leagues.

 

[wolfeman]

this is a good read....

 

[SoopaCee]

my head hurts loli agree with what alot of ppl are saying....it does make sensebut for aslong as i play fantasy, i am always takin rb/wr or wr/rb with my first 2 picksi always have.....and i only ever missed the playoffs once in 7+ years of playing, with 2 titlesthe only way i look at things is point wise......most qbs dont run, and when they do its either spotty here and there yards, or they run more than they throw.....so most qbs can rack up 300+ yards a game with 2 scores........most wr's only catch the ball, a couple run here and there but its nothing special except for a few breakout td reverses......wrs get about 5 catches for 80 yds and a td a game....rbs run of course, and not all run good, but alot catch the ball aswell....so in ppr leagues i think RB is still the most important position.......some rbs can get like 100-150 yds a game (total) with 1-2 scores...plus the ppr'snow with the qb.....like i showed before, most can put up the points you need and you can get them in rd's 3+wr's there is usually 1 stud per team that racks up steady points, with the other wr's on that team stealing thunder once and awhilerb....not many teams have 1 solid rb anymore....its mostly rbbc......so for instance Steven Jackson.....i would still take him over alot of guys, especially in my ppr league......yes he has injury issues, but he does it all at his position with no one pushing behind himso no matter what im getting my rb/wr combo early......depending who is available QB wise at the 3rd rd spot, i would draft one, but considering rb's fall off big time after the first 2 rds......and wr's get tricky aswell, but still some talent there......but i would never and i mean never draft a qb with my first 2 picks....ever

Never ever? Even if you had a 10-12 pick in the draft, KNEW that your competition traditionally drafted QBs like they were overdosing on donuts in the 1st/2nd round and that you would be left with a tier 3 QB by the time u got to draft again in round 3?NEVER EVER????

yes never ever lol.....in the 3rd or 4th depending who is there i will take one....if i dont like what i see, i will wait 2 more rounds if i have toothis is the top ten in 2008(in my league)breeswarnercutlerrodgersriversmanning macnabbcassellromopenningtonnow in 2009 only brees, rodgers, manning, romo and rivers also made it again.....that leaves 5 qb spots that changed (atleast out the top 10)...back in '07 only 4 stayed in the top 10so its obvious who is real early 1st/2nd rounders......brees, manning, rodgersand like you said....yeah i see around me who drafts what....but i know in my league them 3 guys will probably only be gone......throw in Rivers maybe because he got drafted early last year too.....i got Rodgers in the 3rd/4th.....and this year same thing......Romo should be there, and he can put up numbers just like manning & brees.....or very close atleastso if i take a rb in the 1st, im gettin a top ten back.....in the 2nd, a top 10 wr and in the 3rd a top ten qbif you take a qb in the first.....its auto that your gonna get a rb out of the top 10(unless you draft one next, than your wr will be the guy out the top 10)....not saying the guy wont do better than his ranking....but i just going by pre-season/draft rankingsi just think its the best scenariowhy take a qb in the first.....when you can get almost the same value/points in the 3rd?

 

[greenheads]

"id say no b/c the dropoff at wr and rb is steeper than at qb"

I see the point, but I think you should consider the chances that a rb taken in the first rd will put up top ten rb numbers, especially late first. Stats show that the chances of that are about 50%. If you get a top ten rb (by year end stats) in the first rd and a top 5 qb later thats the best case of course. But how many teams that took Lt or Slaton or Forte in rd one last year made the playoffs? Those teams might have been better off going qb wr in the first two rds last year.

also stud and startable rbs are easier to find later in the draft and in pick ups than stud qbs and wrs.

For me my fantasy success has been when I had the most studs on my team regardless of position, and its harder to get a stud rb in rds one and two than qb and wr.

 

[butcher boy]

I've been using value-based drafting for 10 years in my auction league and I'm now tempted to just go with proven studs regardless of position in the first 3 rounds instead. I'm just getting tired of seeing the guys who draft Brady or Manning take the title every year while I'm busy calculating who to start each week between David Garrard and Jay Cutler.

When it comes down to it, nobody has any real clue who is going to round out the top 10 QBs any given year. Might as well go with a proven one.

It also seems like more often than not, picking hot players up on the waiver wire makes more of a difference in the outcome of the league than drafting for value.

I still think value has its place in the rest of the draft, but I'm definitely not shying away from drafting a stud QB in the first few rounds.

 

[Marked]

PPR pushes WR & RB up and QB down.

Flex pushes RB & WR up and QB down.

6pt passing TD (vs 4pts) pushes QB up (about 1/2 round).

Here's a snippet of FBG cheatsheet for PPR 1/2/2/1/1/1 +1flex:

1 Chris Johnson (01.01)

2 Maurice Jones-Drew (01.03)

3 Ray Rice (01.04)

4 Adrian Peterson (01.02)

5 Andre Johnson (01.06)

6 Frank Gore (01.05)

7 Steven Jackson (01.08)

8 Larry Fitzgerald (02.01)

9 Aaron Rodgers (01.10)

10 Randy Moss (01.12)

11 Peyton Manning (02.03)

12 Drew Brees (01.09)

13 Miles Austin (02.09)

14 Rashard Mendenhall (02.04)

15 Roddy White (02.07)

16 Reggie Wayne (02.02)

17 Sidney Rice (03.12)

18 Tony Romo (03.08)

19 Pierre Thomas (04.01)

20 Jamaal Charles (03.06)

21 Knowshon Moreno (03.01)

22 Greg Jennings (03.07)

23 Chris Wells (03.04)

24 Marques Colston (03.05)

Back to the picking at 8, the best course is to let the draft come to you. You cannot fall in love with a target 'til your turn. Depending on the direction the draft takes, you have to seek value where it presents itself. If your league mates are knuckleheads and run on QBs early, are you going to join the stampede or zag? If there's an early run in one direction, there's opportunity/value in another.

At pick 8 there's a lot of possibilities (no your not getting a top 4 RB), plus in 12 team league you're picking at 17 again. Very, very possible to get TWO off the Round 1 list above. I don't think you should lock into a position in round 1 or 2, take the opportunity that presents itself. Don't put blinders on.

 

[SoopaCee]

PPR pushes WR & RB up and QB down.

Flex pushes RB & WR up and QB down.

6pt passing TD (vs 4pts) pushes QB up (about 1/2 round).

Here's a snippet of FBG cheatsheet for PPR 1/2/2/1/1/1 +1flex:

1 Chris Johnson (01.01)

2 Maurice Jones-Drew (01.03)

3 Ray Rice (01.04)

4 Adrian Peterson (01.02)

5 Andre Johnson (01.06)

6 Frank Gore (01.05)

7 Steven Jackson (01.08)

8 Larry Fitzgerald (02.01)

9 Aaron Rodgers (01.10)

10 Randy Moss (01.12)

11 Peyton Manning (02.03)

12 Drew Brees (01.09)

13 Miles Austin (02.09)

14 Rashard Mendenhall (02.04)

15 Roddy White (02.07)

16 Reggie Wayne (02.02)

17 Sidney Rice (03.12)

18 Tony Romo (03.08)

19 Pierre Thomas (04.01)

20 Jamaal Charles (03.06)

21 Knowshon Moreno (03.01)

22 Greg Jennings (03.07)

23 Chris Wells (03.04)

24 Marques Colston (03.05)

Back to the picking at 8, the best course is to let the draft come to you. You cannot fall in love with a target 'til your turn. Depending on the direction the draft takes, you have to seek value where it presents itself. If your league mates are knuckleheads and run on QBs early, are you going to join the stampede or zag? If there's an early run in one direction, there's opportunity/value in another.

At pick 8 there's a lot of possibilities (no your not getting a top 4 RB), plus in 12 team league you're picking at 17 again. Very, very possible to get TWO off the Round 1 list above. I don't think you should lock into a position in round 1 or 2, take the opportunity that presents itself. Don't put blinders on.

good points

 

[wolfeman]

I really want to pull the trigger on Brees at 7. A lot of points, usually healthy,nice schedule. But then I think if I can Romo round 2, I could get a gore,turner,maybe ajohnson in Rd 1. All TDs=6,PPR. Nice sure yet.

 

[C-Bound]

Having played in a non-PPR 6pt/QB/TD league for many years now, I can unequivocally say that if you are drafting at the back end of the 1st, yes, a top tier QB is very solid move.I have yet to see a team go deep/win the league w/o at top, Tier 1 QB.I won that league last year and had Manning at the helm, who was the #4 QB overall points-wise, but I drafted him at 2.04 as the 3rd QB off the board. If I had waited until round 3, all of the top QBs would have been gone.You're asking about PPR, so I'd say that I'd probably go best WR/RB available at 1.08, and hit my QB at 2.05.

Virtually same exact scenario for me, took, Manning, and won the league, fwiw as a data point here.

 

[Mr. Retukes]

I did this in 2005 after Manning's 49-TD season. Figured I'd be set.



Half the quarterbacks in the top-10 weren't even drafted in the first 4 rounds that year.