A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (1 Viewer)

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

very hard to place AJ in re-draft.

Is he a 2nd rounder in re-draft PPR? Him vs mike wallace vs roddy vs julio vs marshall.

The level of WR production at this tier will be similar. Im not sure his re-draft ceiling is higher than these guys this year

 

[nickdib]

NFL.com's player projections put him as WR49 in non-PPR with 743 yards and 4 tds

 

[Grahamburn]

What held him back was Dalton struggling with his deep passes, causing Green to adjust on many of the catches. Having watched that game I also know he was open at least 2 other times deep but was simply missed by Dalton.

This hasn't changed. Sadly, receivers are tied to their QBs. The person to pay attention to is Dalton. If he improves, so will Green.

 

[yellowdog]

NFL.com's player projections put him as WR49 in non-PPR with 743 yards and 4 tds

huh?

 

[nickdib]

NFL.com's player projections put him as WR49 in non-PPR with 743 yards and 4 tds

huh?

http://fantasy.nfl.com/research/projections ... go to the WR tab, he'll be at the bottom of the 2nd page. Weird that they'd contradict themselves though

 

[yellowdog]

NFL.com's player projections put him as WR49 in non-PPR with 743 yards and 4 tds

huh?

http://fantasy.nfl.com/research/projections ... go to the WR tab, he'll be at the bottom of the 2nd page. Weird that they'd contradict themselves though

"Projections provided by Madden '13"

 

[jurb26]

I know I've touched on Green's work eithic in previous threads/post, particularlly as it pertains to improving his route running. Here is a report to that fact.

Work Ethic

CINCINNATI -- A.J. Green is the next Calvin Johnson. Just as important to the Bengals, he's not the next Chad Ochocinco.

With few words and many hours of hard work, Green is primed to take that next step and join the elite wide receivers in this league. He just doesn't need a reality show to announce it. Or his own news network.

Green out-leaped and outran defenders to put up better rookie numbers than Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, and he did so without a full offseason. Now, as the Bengals conclude their spring workouts this week, he's watching film to improve his game. He's talking (well, it's more like listening) to coaches about refining his route running. He's even going to work out with Fitzgerald next month to pick up some pointers.

There's no diva qualities with Green. It's all about desire and dedication. That's a scary combination considering he has everything you want in a playmaking wide receiver. Speed, check. Size, check. Athleticism and aggressiveness, check and check. Work ethic, a big check.

"He has tremendous ability and he never says a word," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said. "Every time he watches film, he envisions himself getting better. He envisions himself doing it better than he did it the last time. That’s the key element of him. There’s not a bit of satisfaction in what he’s doing."

Green's debut was extremely impressive. The fourth overall pick of the 2011 draft led all NFL rookies with 65 catches for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns. His 11 catches of 35 yards or more were the most in the league and the most by an NFL rookie since Minnesota’s Randy Moss had 14 in 1998. As a result, Green became the first rookie wide receiver to make the Pro Bowl since Anquan Boldin in 2003.

His encore would be scintillating if he follows the path of Johnson and Fitzgerald. In their second seasons, Fitzgerald caught 103 passes for 1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns while Johnson produced 79 receptions for 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns. Those are realistic numbers for Green in 2012.

When talking about where he ranks in the NFL, Green simply says he'll let his play do the talking. Fortunately, his teammates and coaches are more than happy to talk about Green, too.

"He’s by far the best receiver I’ve guarded," Bengals cornerback Adam Jones said.

Does he expect Green's name to be mentioned with the likes of the elite receivers this year? "His name should be up there already," Jones said. "All you have to do is watch him."

Lewis even referred to Green as the best receiver in the NFL on Tuesday, before he quickly qualified it by saying "one of the best."

The moment that defined Green last season was a leaping catch for a 51-yard gain in the final minute that set up the winning field goal over the Cleveland Browns. His clutch play as a rookie shows his importance in the offense. It's not about the number of catches. It's about the significance of them.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, 44 of Green's 65 catches (68 percent) came when the score was within seven points. That ranked 10th among all wide receivers last season.

"When the game is on the line, I want to be the go-to guy," Green said. "I feel like that separates the good from the great receivers."

Part of what separates the good from the great players is their influence on teammates. With veterans Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell gone, Green has become the clear leader of a wide receiver group that averages 2.2 years of experience.

As you would expect from his low-key personality, Green is a leader by example by being the first one in every drill and running it at full speed. According to the Bengals' official website, the receivers say: Whatever A.J. does is exactly what you want to do.

This represents the most drastic difference between Green, the team's current No. 1 receiver, and Ochocinco, the team's all-time leading receiver.

Ochocinco has been described by his former Bengals teammates as a performer who never "shepherded" teammates.

"A.J. is the opposite," offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth said. "Not only is he super talented, but it means a lot to him to be an example [to teammates]. I think he takes that to heart."

While Green is now a leader, that doesn't mean he has stopped learning. The emphasis of this offseason has been to grow as a player.

He is becoming more patient in his route running (he acknowledged he ran most routes at 100 miles per hour last season), which should generate more big plays. He is also learning all three wide receiver spots (split end, flanker and slot), which will allow him to move all over the field and make it more difficult for defenses to double him all the time.

“A.J. is one of those guys who is so gifted athletically, and you find ways to get him the ball," quarterback Andy Dalton said. "Whether it’s early on in the game or the end or in crunch time, you just try and find ways to get him the ball. Once he’s got it, he can do a lot with it. He’s just that kind of receiver."

 

[bengalbuck]

I've never seen Marvin Lewis rave about any player to this extent. Maybe I'm just being a homer, but AJ is my #2 WR even in re-draft. He's going to get 90+ catches for a lot of yards and double digit TDs this season.

 

[doowain]

I know I've touched on Green's work eithic in previous threads/post, particularlly as it pertains to improving his route running. Here is a report to that fact.

Work Ethic

CINCINNATI -- A.J. Green is the next Calvin Johnson. Just as important to the Bengals, he's not the next Chad Ochocinco.

With few words and many hours of hard work, Green is primed to take that next step and join the elite wide receivers in this league. He just doesn't need a reality show to announce it. Or his own news network.

Green out-leaped and outran defenders to put up better rookie numbers than Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, and he did so without a full offseason. Now, as the Bengals conclude their spring workouts this week, he's watching film to improve his game. He's talking (well, it's more like listening) to coaches about refining his route running. He's even going to work out with Fitzgerald next month to pick up some pointers.

There's no diva qualities with Green. It's all about desire and dedication. That's a scary combination considering he has everything you want in a playmaking wide receiver. Speed, check. Size, check. Athleticism and aggressiveness, check and check. Work ethic, a big check.

"He has tremendous ability and he never says a word," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said. "Every time he watches film, he envisions himself getting better. He envisions himself doing it better than he did it the last time. That’s the key element of him. There’s not a bit of satisfaction in what he’s doing."

Green's debut was extremely impressive. The fourth overall pick of the 2011 draft led all NFL rookies with 65 catches for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns. His 11 catches of 35 yards or more were the most in the league and the most by an NFL rookie since Minnesota’s Randy Moss had 14 in 1998. As a result, Green became the first rookie wide receiver to make the Pro Bowl since Anquan Boldin in 2003.

His encore would be scintillating if he follows the path of Johnson and Fitzgerald. In their second seasons, Fitzgerald caught 103 passes for 1,409 yards and 10 touchdowns while Johnson produced 79 receptions for 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns. Those are realistic numbers for Green in 2012.

When talking about where he ranks in the NFL, Green simply says he'll let his play do the talking. Fortunately, his teammates and coaches are more than happy to talk about Green, too.

"He’s by far the best receiver I’ve guarded," Bengals cornerback Adam Jones said.

Does he expect Green's name to be mentioned with the likes of the elite receivers this year? "His name should be up there already," Jones said. "All you have to do is watch him."

Lewis even referred to Green as the best receiver in the NFL on Tuesday, before he quickly qualified it by saying "one of the best."

The moment that defined Green last season was a leaping catch for a 51-yard gain in the final minute that set up the winning field goal over the Cleveland Browns. His clutch play as a rookie shows his importance in the offense. It's not about the number of catches. It's about the significance of them.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, 44 of Green's 65 catches (68 percent) came when the score was within seven points. That ranked 10th among all wide receivers last season.

"When the game is on the line, I want to be the go-to guy," Green said. "I feel like that separates the good from the great receivers."

Part of what separates the good from the great players is their influence on teammates. With veterans Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell gone, Green has become the clear leader of a wide receiver group that averages 2.2 years of experience.

As you would expect from his low-key personality, Green is a leader by example by being the first one in every drill and running it at full speed. According to the Bengals' official website, the receivers say: Whatever A.J. does is exactly what you want to do.

This represents the most drastic difference between Green, the team's current No. 1 receiver, and Ochocinco, the team's all-time leading receiver.

Ochocinco has been described by his former Bengals teammates as a performer who never "shepherded" teammates.

"A.J. is the opposite," offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth said. "Not only is he super talented, but it means a lot to him to be an example [to teammates]. I think he takes that to heart."

While Green is now a leader, that doesn't mean he has stopped learning. The emphasis of this offseason has been to grow as a player.

He is becoming more patient in his route running (he acknowledged he ran most routes at 100 miles per hour last season), which should generate more big plays. He is also learning all three wide receiver spots (split end, flanker and slot), which will allow him to move all over the field and make it more difficult for defenses to double him all the time.

“A.J. is one of those guys who is so gifted athletically, and you find ways to get him the ball," quarterback Andy Dalton said. "Whether it’s early on in the game or the end or in crunch time, you just try and find ways to get him the ball. Once he’s got it, he can do a lot with it. He’s just that kind of receiver."

 

[lbouchard]

90 rec, 1350 yards, 11 TDs

Gonna explode this year

 

[FF Ninja]

In the last 3 years, only 14 90+ rec seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 7 12+ TD seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 2 90+ rec and 12+ TD seasons.

Settle down, fellas.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

In the last 3 years, only 14 90+ rec seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 7 12+ TD seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 2 90+ rec and 12+ TD seasons.

Settle down, fellas.

so you're saying there is a chance!

 

[Sabertooth]

In the last 3 years, only 14 90+ rec seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 7 12+ TD seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 2 90+ rec and 12+ TD seasons.

Settle down, fellas.

Gronkowski did it last year. Did you count him? And how many wideouts were on pace for those numbers and missed time. I project as if a player is playing all 16 games and misses no time.

 

[Gawain]

75-1080-7

 

[FF Ninja]

In the last 3 years, only 14 90+ rec seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 7 12+ TD seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 2 90+ rec and 12+ TD seasons.

Settle down, fellas.

Gronkowski did it last year. Did you count him? And how many wideouts were on pace for those numbers and missed time. I project as if a player is playing all 16 games and misses no time.

No sir. WR only. If you want to include TEs, you can add 1 to all three numbers.Not sure how many guys were on pace, but missed time. Data dominator doesn't list games played and I'm too lazy to look up individual stats for each guy that was close. For this purpose, I think what I used paints a good picture. Just glancing at the list of guys who were near misses and going by memory, only Miles Austin in 2009 stands out - he didn't miss time but he didn't start for the first 4 weeks or so. He ended up with 81/1320/11.

Anyway, I think what someone said about the WR1 getting 40% of receiving TDs is a good thing to consider. Dalton was impressive last year as a 2nd rounder w/o a real offseason, but do you want to project 30+ passing TDs? I think Gresham detracts from Green's targets in the end zone.

A month ago I wouldn't have said this, but I'd rather have Julio Jones than Green after doing a little data mining.

 

[bengalbuck]

In the last 3 years, only 14 90+ rec seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 7 12+ TD seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 2 90+ rec and 12+ TD seasons.

Settle down, fellas.

Gronkowski did it last year. Did you count him? And how many wideouts were on pace for those numbers and missed time. I project as if a player is playing all 16 games and misses no time.

No sir. WR only. If you want to include TEs, you can add 1 to all three numbers.Not sure how many guys were on pace, but missed time. Data dominator doesn't list games played and I'm too lazy to look up individual stats for each guy that was close. For this purpose, I think what I used paints a good picture. Just glancing at the list of guys who were near misses and going by memory, only Miles Austin in 2009 stands out - he didn't miss time but he didn't start for the first 4 weeks or so. He ended up with 81/1320/11.

Anyway, I think what someone said about the WR1 getting 40% of receiving TDs is a good thing to consider. Dalton was impressive last year as a 2nd rounder w/o a real offseason, but do you want to project 30+ passing TDs? I think Gresham detracts from Green's targets in the end zone.

A month ago I wouldn't have said this, but I'd rather have Julio Jones than Green after doing a little data mining.

Good stats and they do add real perspective. However, I'm curious how many guys came very close to those #s. For example, if he ends up instead with 87 catches and 11 TDs or something like that, I think most will be happy. Also, even though the 90 catch/12 TD prediction would be a pretty special season, I do think AJ is good enough that he will put up those elite type numbers. He is one of the very few WRs (like Megatron) who I believe will consistently put up double digit TDs almost every season regardless of his QB due to his unique talents and special ability to make catches against great coverage.He missed a game and a half last year as a rookie but his pace was for about 72-1200-8. And he didn't even know where he was supposed to lineup half the time. The Bengals were running an entirely new offense with a new OC, rookie QB and both starting WRs were basically rookies and had no mini-camp.

 

[Sabertooth]

In the last 3 years, only 14 90+ rec seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 7 12+ TD seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 2 90+ rec and 12+ TD seasons.

Settle down, fellas.

Gronkowski did it last year. Did you count him? And how many wideouts were on pace for those numbers and missed time. I project as if a player is playing all 16 games and misses no time.

No sir. WR only. If you want to include TEs, you can add 1 to all three numbers.Not sure how many guys were on pace, but missed time. Data dominator doesn't list games played and I'm too lazy to look up individual stats for each guy that was close. For this purpose, I think what I used paints a good picture. Just glancing at the list of guys who were near misses and going by memory, only Miles Austin in 2009 stands out - he didn't miss time but he didn't start for the first 4 weeks or so. He ended up with 81/1320/11.

Anyway, I think what someone said about the WR1 getting 40% of receiving TDs is a good thing to consider. Dalton was impressive last year as a 2nd rounder w/o a real offseason, but do you want to project 30+ passing TDs? I think Gresham detracts from Green's targets in the end zone.

A month ago I wouldn't have said this, but I'd rather have Julio Jones than Green after doing a little data mining.

I project for a full 16 games. All four quarters every game. This inflates projections but I don't know a way to predict guys missing and I don't think there is a way. The one thing though about a guy missing a full game is that you can plug in another guy further down your bench. So even though you don't get the full 1300 yards or whatever you may get them effectively if your bench guy is nails for you.

 

[Crazy Tony]

I think a lot can be learned from the stats chart. It can help you try to determine some reasonable type of projection range for a player.

First I think most people agree that AJ GReen is pretty talented regardless of his QB situation.

I wanted to find out of talent can rise about a situation to create top 5 WR #s.

I looked up 2 stats in Data Domintor from 2004 -2011. TOP REC seasons and TOP TD Seasons. for WR/TE.

Data shows Top 200 for each.

I wanted to see:

-Who was scoring TDs.

-How often they repeated top #s.

-What situation WR/TE was in when it happened.

-Was QB elite level? Was player elite level?

For TDs...only Antonio Gates appears in all 8 seasons from 2004-2011 for TDs 2011 being his lowest 7Tds. 2004 highest 13Tds.

TD scorers typically had a top QB throwing to them.

Some larger, possession WRs like T.O. didn't matter which QB was throwing. Span of several great years.

Short WRs didn't score as often except for Marvin Harrison. They still did well but he TD production could vary. Probably lack Redzone targets like big WRs. But you can't just be big...you have to be big and good....

Let's Start with TDs...I wanted to see who are the players that seem to do this...and how often.

#1 Randy Moss 23, 13, 11, 8 appeared 4 times. (55 TD)

#2 Gronk 17, name appears 1 time but is #2 overall in TD performances as TE. (

#3 Muhsin Muhammed 16 in 2004...one time.

#4 Megatron 16 2011, 12 2008, 12 2010. 3 times. Still young.(40td)

#5 Braylon Edwards 16, 2007 7 2010.

#6 Terrell Owens 15, 14, 13, 10, 9 appears 5 times. Very consistent as of a few years ago. (61tDS)

#7 Marvin Harrsion 15TD in 2004, 12 in 2005, 12 in 2006. 3 times (39td)

#8 Jordy Nelson 15TD 2011.

#9 Dwayne Bowe 14TD 2010, 7 in 2008.

#10 Vernon Davis 13TD 2009, 7TD 2010.

#11 Antonio Gates 13TD 2004, 10TD 2010, 2005, 9TD 2006, 2007, 8TD 2008, 2009, 7TD 2011. 8 times (74 TDs)

#12 Jennings 12TD 2007, 2010, 9TD 2011, 2008...4xtimes.

#13 Fitzgerald 12TD 2009, 2008, 10TD 2005, 2007, 8TD 2004, 2011, 6TD 2006, (66)

#14 Reggie Wayne 12TD, 10Td 10TD 9TD. 4 x times

There are a few others but That's enough.

Tom Brady is responsible for top TDs #1, #2,

GB QB responsible for Jennings, Jordy.

PManning Harrison/Wayne.

Rivers/Brees responsible for Antonio Gates

Alex Smith for Davis

Various QBs for Terrell Owens. ROMO, Garcia, McNabb.

Kurt Warner/Jake Plummer & other responsible for Fitzgerald

Stafford for Calvin Johnson

muhsin...not sure.

Bowe has had Matt Cassell, maybe trent edwards.

Most top performances though have had an elite QB of sorts.

This seems to indicate that AJ Green will need an elite QB to be a consistent performer in this range.

NEXT I LOOKED AT RECEPTIONS I didn't indicate the years.

#1. WELKER 123, 122, 112, 112, and 86....5 times.

#2. Andre Johnson 115, 103, 101, 85, 79...also 5 times.

#3. Roddy White 113, 100, 88, 85, 83, 5 times

#4. TJ Housh: 112, 92, 90, 79, 78, 73,

#5. Reggie Wayne 110, 104, 100, 86, 83

#6. Steve Smith NYG: 107, see other steve smith too for other years explanation

#7. BMarshall: 104, 102, 101, 86, 82 (NOTICE drop off when at MIAMI)

#8. Steve Smith CAR 103. Not sure which is which after this...not labeled...but som smaller #s and in the 80s rec seasons.

#9. Fitzgerald

#10. Derrick Mason

#11. T HOLT

#12. A BOLDIN

#13. Tony Gonzalez TE

#14. J Witten 100

That rounds out the 100 REC WR/TEs.

It gets deep through the 90+rec.

Welker has 3 of top 5 REC seasons 2009, 2011 2008...but total TDs = 16 combined.

Gronkowski had 17 TD in 2011...on 90 REC.

Plaxico had 12 TD one season on 70 REC. Not bad.

Once again Tom Brady was responsible for the TOP performances.

Then Matt Schaub for AJ whatever for others.

Surprisingly, Brees wasn't in here. Likely due to distribution. Colston and Graham were near the top on these lists. and Brees did throw to Gates before RIVERs. Colston's injury issues haven't helped consistency.

A really good situation it seems can get a player to a certain level. Let's say 80+/- catches.

A really talented WR regardless of the situation seems to be able to get to about 80+/- receptions even in bad situations. ( Marshall, MIA)

In all likelihood it takes both a great situation and talent for the WR to produce and 90-100+ rec and 10+ TDs season for more than one season. And these odds increase when the player is over 6ft tall.

(Size Matters in Red Zone targets...no surprise...except for Marvin Harrison).

About 1 year ago. No one thought Dalton would be any good and AJ Green would suffer because of it.

Dalton did well for Rookie as did Green AND the question seems to be How Good can Dalton be?

Let's say Dalton becomes elite-ish...Romo/Rivers/Schaub/Eli range. It's possible to produce high #s.

Many of those big seasons came from top QBs.

Full seasons in great situation should result in 100+ rec 12-15td season.

Down seasons by the same token should still be in higher range. 80 rec 8 TD or few REC and lots of TDs and lots of REC and few TDs.

 

[Sabertooth]

Nice analysis.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Muhsin Muhammed qb was Jake Delhomme in 2004

Braylon Edwards qb was Derek Anderson in 2007

 

[Sabertooth]

Muhsin Muhammed qb was Jake Delhomme in 2004Braylon Edwards qb was Derek Anderson in 2007

Well I guess that settles it.

 

[FF Ninja]

In the last 3 years, only 14 90+ rec seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 7 12+ TD seasons.

In the last 3 years, only 2 90+ rec and 12+ TD seasons.

Settle down, fellas.

Gronkowski did it last year. Did you count him? And how many wideouts were on pace for those numbers and missed time. I project as if a player is playing all 16 games and misses no time.

No sir. WR only. If you want to include TEs, you can add 1 to all three numbers.Not sure how many guys were on pace, but missed time. Data dominator doesn't list games played and I'm too lazy to look up individual stats for each guy that was close. For this purpose, I think what I used paints a good picture. Just glancing at the list of guys who were near misses and going by memory, only Miles Austin in 2009 stands out - he didn't miss time but he didn't start for the first 4 weeks or so. He ended up with 81/1320/11.

Anyway, I think what someone said about the WR1 getting 40% of receiving TDs is a good thing to consider. Dalton was impressive last year as a 2nd rounder w/o a real offseason, but do you want to project 30+ passing TDs? I think Gresham detracts from Green's targets in the end zone.

A month ago I wouldn't have said this, but I'd rather have Julio Jones than Green after doing a little data mining.

I project for a full 16 games. All four quarters every game. This inflates projections but I don't know a way to predict guys missing and I don't think there is a way. The one thing though about a guy missing a full game is that you can plug in another guy further down your bench. So even though you don't get the full 1300 yards or whatever you may get them effectively if your bench guy is nails for you.

Yeah, dude, I get it. I do my projections the exact same way. I make 16g projections and adjust how I draft based on my own perception on likelihood of injury. I'm just saying, I don't think there were too many situations where a couple games held a guy back. 90 rec AND 12 td is rare and not because of injury. If this were a thread about a RB then maybe, but WRs miss less time.I'm not trying to piss in your corn flakes. People never like a realist in these spotlight threads, but sometimes I think it is worth generation discussion about more modest expectations for players.

The fact remains that Green is linked to Dalton. What are your Dalton projections? Keep in mind that sophomore slumps happen. Have a look at Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford.

Personally, I haven't decided how comfortable I am with Green at WR8, but at this point I would not be too excited about landing him near the beginning of the third round, but there aren't a lot of guys around there that I am fond of.

 

[Crazy Tony]

My thought is if you like his talent in Dynasty you need to take him if you don't already have him or see if you can get him for right price.

He's a player you can build around.

But projections should be tempered ~80 rec 1000yds 8TDs to something reasonable and attainable.

Just know that this is not likely his ceiling. Project low knowing there's upside due to less than ideal situation.

For DYNASTY, I'd rather have a talented guy capable of 100rec/1500yd/15td but only getting 80/1000/8....

...than the guy who is at his ceiling and getting 74/1023/7 (Nate Washington).

But, if I don't have that talented player. I'm looking for guys like Washington to help me compete with the teams that do have them.

The tricky part is evaluating properly, knowing when to sell high. I think as owners we fall in love with guys when we're right one year and let ourselves get clouded by our own judgment the next. You need to find and sell these guys high and try to acquire the young AJ Greens., Julious Jones, Calvin Johnsons. If you think AJGreen is that talent and has a bad year. It could be a good time to buy before he goes off for more.

It's too difficult to predict a 12TD season.

In 10years it's happened 32 times.

11 of those 32 were by Moss4, Owens4, Harrison3.

Speaking of 11...neither Jimmy Graham or Marques Colston have 12TD seasons but in 2011 they both had 11 so just having elite QB or freakish talent doesn't get you there. They're obviously close but if you're predicting 12TDs....you're just excited and hopeful.

Moss had 13 TDs in 2004 but only had 49Rec on 84 targets and 747 yards.

Hakeem Nicks has never had 12 and he's one of the more highly sought after WRs in a solid passing OFF. But has injury concerns.

It does appear that if you have a player that is in the 11 or 12 range multi-years. You need to hang on to that dude by then it's probably too late to get a deal on him. Then again, Moss is probably available in a lot of leagues right now.

 

[JPeso]

80, 1,200, 8 = 248 PPR, 15.5 PPR PPG

 

[cheese]

Green is a strange case for me as a very young player. I think we know his role well, we know his skill level, and we generally know all the limitations he faces. In other words, I view AJG in the same way I view veteran players with a track record. I don't think he has any chance of blowing up to be WR1 or anything like that, but I think his bust rate is almost non-existent barring major injury.

One thing I will say for the guy is that ever since he stepped on the field on day 1, every opponent keyed on him. They still ran tons of the offense through him, Dalton still put the ball up for him, and he made plays anyway. It's hard to imagine him getting MORE attention than he already got last year.

 

[Sabertooth]

Green is a strange case for me as a very young player. I think we know his role well, we know his skill level, and we generally know all the limitations he faces. In other words, I view AJG in the same way I view veteran players with a track record. I don't think he has any chance of blowing up to be WR1 or anything like that, but I think his bust rate is almost non-existent barring major injury.

One thing I will say for the guy is that ever since he stepped on the field on day 1, every opponent keyed on him. They still ran tons of the offense through him, Dalton still put the ball up for him, and he made plays anyway. It's hard to imagine him getting MORE attention than he already got last year.

Like what? Dalton put up one of the better rookie seasons in recent memory.

 

[cheese]

Green is a strange case for me as a very young player. I think we know his role well, we know his skill level, and we generally know all the limitations he faces. In other words, I view AJG in the same way I view veteran players with a track record. I don't think he has any chance of blowing up to be WR1 or anything like that, but I think his bust rate is almost non-existent barring major injury.

One thing I will say for the guy is that ever since he stepped on the field on day 1, every opponent keyed on him. They still ran tons of the offense through him, Dalton still put the ball up for him, and he made plays anyway. It's hard to imagine him getting MORE attention than he already got last year.

Like what? Dalton put up one of the better rookie seasons in recent memory.

Most specifically, the division and the conservative nature of the Bengals. I will put it like this. I don't think AJG can possibly play better than he did in 2011. I don't think the Bengals offense can possibly focus anymore than they already did on getting it to AJG without completely changing their offense. Nothing has changed for the Bengals in terms of coaching after what they did last year worked great. When other guys are playing in video game offenses, I don't see how his numbers can compare.

 

[Sabertooth]

Green is a strange case for me as a very young player. I think we know his role well, we know his skill level, and we generally know all the limitations he faces. In other words, I view AJG in the same way I view veteran players with a track record. I don't think he has any chance of blowing up to be WR1 or anything like that, but I think his bust rate is almost non-existent barring major injury.

One thing I will say for the guy is that ever since he stepped on the field on day 1, every opponent keyed on him. They still ran tons of the offense through him, Dalton still put the ball up for him, and he made plays anyway. It's hard to imagine him getting MORE attention than he already got last year.

Like what? Dalton put up one of the better rookie seasons in recent memory.

Most specifically, the division and the conservative nature of the Bengals. I will put it like this. I don't think AJG can possibly play better than he did in 2011. I don't think the Bengals offense can possibly focus anymore than they already did on getting it to AJG without completely changing their offense. Nothing has changed for the Bengals in terms of coaching after what they did last year worked great. When other guys are playing in video game offenses, I don't see how his numbers can compare.

Ok. I disagree to an extent though. I think Green can approach 80-85 catches with yards and touchdowns getting a bump as well. He barely crested 1000 yards. Only had a few big games. As Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu continue to age, he's going to see worse defensive play, not better. Those guys simply aren't easily replaceable. For fantasy purposes, they only play Baltimore once this year (second meeting coming in week 17). So that helps as well. But they don't play an easy schedule by any stretch. I think continued improvement by Dalton and Green should bump him some.

 

[trogg78]

Green is a strange case for me as a very young player. I think we know his role well, we know his skill level, and we generally know all the limitations he faces. In other words, I view AJG in the same way I view veteran players with a track record. I don't think he has any chance of blowing up to be WR1 or anything like that, but I think his bust rate is almost non-existent barring major injury.

One thing I will say for the guy is that ever since he stepped on the field on day 1, every opponent keyed on him. They still ran tons of the offense through him, Dalton still put the ball up for him, and he made plays anyway. It's hard to imagine him getting MORE attention than he already got last year.

Like what? Dalton put up one of the better rookie seasons in recent memory.

Most specifically, the division and the conservative nature of the Bengals. I will put it like this. I don't think AJG can possibly play better than he did in 2011. I don't think the Bengals offense can possibly focus anymore than they already did on getting it to AJG without completely changing their offense. Nothing has changed for the Bengals in terms of coaching after what they did last year worked great. When other guys are playing in video game offenses, I don't see how his numbers can compare.

They will open up more this year. Last year was the first year of a new offensive system with a rookie QB and no off season. Of course they were more conservative then you would expect this year.

 

[cheese]

I see what you're saying, but I think you may be underestimating just how good those guys played last year. As a Bengals fan, I would be thrilled (and borderline shocked) if both replicated their play this year. AJG was (in my admittedly biased opinion) a top 3 WR in the league last year as a rookie. Dalton, as you mentioned, was unbelievable from day 1. I think what you saw last year is close to their ceiling for stats in this offense on a per game average. For them to continue improving on their own individual play means you're expecting Dalton to cross into the 2nd tier (Stafford/Ryan/Cutler/etc) of QBs and AJG to be on Calvin's level. I would love it, but I can't go there.

 

[PhantomJB]

Elite talent and clear #1 role on his team in the same vein as Fitz and Megatron. Schedule not really that tough in terms of shutdown corners. As noted above, however, the ceiling on his numbers will likely be held back by conservative offense.

Dalton threw for only 3400 yds last season and AJ got about 1050 of those on 65 recpts. For my projections I am bumping each by about 10% or so.

75 / 1150 / 8 for Green

Green is being widely drafted as a top 5 WR. Makes sense for dynasty. He can certainly achieve that finish in redraft but there are FAR too many others being drafted as high as the upper teens that can easily equal or exceed AJ's output (Smiff, Dez, Austin, Colston, DThomas).

AJ is being overdrafted and therefore won't be on my team this year.

 

[lbouchard]

I see what you're saying, but I think you may be underestimating just how good those guys played last year. As a Bengals fan, I would be thrilled (and borderline shocked) if both replicated their play this year. AJG was (in my admittedly biased opinion) a top 3 WR in the league last year as a rookie. Dalton, as you mentioned, was unbelievable from day 1. I think what you saw last year is close to their ceiling for stats in this offense on a per game average. For them to continue improving on their own individual play means you're expecting Dalton to cross into the 2nd tier (Stafford/Ryan/Cutler/etc) of QBs and AJG to be on Calvin's level. I would love it, but I can't go there.

So they can't improve from their play as rookies with no offseason? I don't get it

 

[cheese]

I see what you're saying, but I think you may be underestimating just how good those guys played last year. As a Bengals fan, I would be thrilled (and borderline shocked) if both replicated their play this year. AJG was (in my admittedly biased opinion) a top 3 WR in the league last year as a rookie. Dalton, as you mentioned, was unbelievable from day 1. I think what you saw last year is close to their ceiling for stats in this offense on a per game average. For them to continue improving on their own individual play means you're expecting Dalton to cross into the 2nd tier (Stafford/Ryan/Cutler/etc) of QBs and AJG to be on Calvin's level. I would love it, but I can't go there.

So they can't improve from their play as rookies with no offseason? I don't get it

Sure, anybody CAN improve I guess. I just think asking AJG to improve from last year is similar to asking Chris Johnson to improve from his 2K year. He just blew up last year. What more can he do? I think he did as much as any WR could possibly do in our offense in the games he played last year.Dalton I view as a league average starter who played at a pro-bowl level last season. Nothing more, nothing less. I love the guy, but I don't see him playing even better than last year.

 

[yellowdog]

I see what you're saying, but I think you may be underestimating just how good those guys played last year. As a Bengals fan, I would be thrilled (and borderline shocked) if both replicated their play this year. AJG was (in my admittedly biased opinion) a top 3 WR in the league last year as a rookie. Dalton, as you mentioned, was unbelievable from day 1. I think what you saw last year is close to their ceiling for stats in this offense on a per game average. For them to continue improving on their own individual play means you're expecting Dalton to cross into the 2nd tier (Stafford/Ryan/Cutler/etc) of QBs and AJG to be on Calvin's level. I would love it, but I can't go there.

So they can't improve from their play as rookies with no offseason? I don't get it

Sure, anybody CAN improve I guess. I just think asking AJG to improve from last year is similar to asking Chris Johnson to improve from his 2K year. He just blew up last year. What more can he do? I think he did as much as any WR could possibly do in our offense in the games he played last year.Dalton I view as a league average starter who played at a pro-bowl level last season. Nothing more, nothing less. I love the guy, but I don't see him playing even better than last year.

If you watched a lot of the Bengals last year, which I assume you did, you know there were several near misses on deep balls to AJ. With a year and an offseason of working together, I expect some of those will connect. I look for a bump up for Dalton and AJ because of the time they've put in.

 

[cheese]

I agree they had some near-misses, but don't you think that's the nature of throwing so many deep balls? I would guess their hit percentage on the deep balls was very good compared to the rest of the league. Can it get even better? I'm not sure, maybe it can. What was the hit rate even for an elite combo like Brady/Moss?

Regardless, I hope you guys are right. If Dalton/Green both improve, this is a playoff team without question.

I don't need to beat this to death. I'll go 72/1100/8 for AJ if he plays all 16.

 

[lbouchard]

I agree they had some near-misses, but don't you think that's the nature of throwing so many deep balls? I would guess their hit percentage on the deep balls was very good compared to the rest of the league. Can it get even better? I'm not sure, maybe it can. What was the hit rate even for an elite combo like Brady/Moss?Regardless, I hope you guys are right. If Dalton/Green both improve, this is a playoff team without question.I don't need to beat this to death. I'll go 72/1100/8 for AJ if he plays all 16.

I just don't get why they would have peaked as rookies, especially since they had no offseason.

 

[Art Vandalay]

AJ Green gets lots of love and deservatley so. He is the best jump ball reciever in the league after only one year and has speed with a good head on his shoulders. In an elite offense he would make a run at the #1 overall receiver. This is not the case in Cincy.

Without a good #2 Sanu? across from him or a great runner in the backfield and a qb without a rocket for an arm he still put up a great rookie year.

I expect him to refine his skills and stay healthy for the full year and continue his delvelopment. We will see some great highlight this year but not the explosion that is coming in year 3

81

1275

10

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The team will be better, but likely they'll win fewer games IMO. Look at the schedule this year vs. last. More time behind = more passing overall, which leaves some room for Dalton and Green to improve fantasy-wise. I don't see the 1400/14 season that some people do, but Green's stats will go up some, IMO.

 

[chickensoup]

The team will be better, but likely they'll win fewer games IMO. Look at the schedule this year vs. last. More time behind = more passing overall, which leaves some room for Dalton and Green to improve fantasy-wise. I don't see the 1400/14 season that some people do, but Green's stats will go up some, IMO.

Dynasty I have him at WR2 regardless of scoring system. He is a dominant WR with good jump ball receiving skills and good deep ball skills.Redraft i have 2 separate rankings depending on PPR/Non-PPRPR: WR 9. He is good, but i dont see a significant jump in receptions like others see. As much as i like him he is not Calvin Johnson yet and he is going to struggle to get more than 75ish receptions in my eyes. especially with the division they are in right now.Non-PPR: WR 5. The yardage and TD will be there to give this rank IMO. I only have Megatron, Fitz, Andre, and Roddy White above him.130 Targets, 75 catches, 1280 yards, 8-10 TD sounds about right.

 

[TheFanatic]

It's lonely on the island.

You got housed on the trade. It happens. But don't keep standing on your porch yelling at kids to get off your lawn. AJG is absolutely elite. No offseason, rookie QB with no offseason and he was outstanding. Both he and the QB will improve this year.Don't let the sting of that trade keep you on that island. It reminds me of the guys telling me Cam peaked his rookie season and can only go down. That's just ridiculous. Same with these two....And I love the guy who posted WRs like Crowell but list their best year and not their rookie year. Figures don't lie, but liars can figure.

 

[duaneok66]

He isn't bad.