A possible strategy to take Warner and Leinart? (1 Viewer)

[Dirty Weasel]

Warning - semi-long post ahead

Last year, Warner and Leinart combined for 4064 yards and 29 TD's. Warner himself finished as QB10 in my league. And he did that without playing a snap in the first 2 games, and then shared time in games 3 thru 5. Looking at the projections of the FBG experts, they have Warner/Leinart combining to be around QB5 to QB8, yet only one staffer has either QB ranked higher than QB25 (Smith has Leinart as QB20). All other staffers don't even rank either QB as a QB2 in a 12-team league. For the cost of 2 very late draft picks, you could very well net yourself a very startable QB1 (although I'd rather it be Warner). It seems people are approaching it as if there will be a QBBC in ARI this year. That may be true to some extent, but QBBC is not the same as RBBC. Warner/Leinart only shared time in 3 games last year. It's not like the coaching staff is gonna go through what they did last year. If they start the season with Warner, it's his job until he gets hurt, or plays completely crappy. He'd have a much longer leash than Leinart. If they start the season with Leinart again, you will know quickly whether he will hold off Warner or not. It's not going to be a weekly decision as to who the starter will be. The ARI passing game has FF points written all over it, so why would both possible starters not even qualify as a FF backup QB?

The only reason I see to shy away from this tandem is being in a league with small roster sizes. If you can roster 3 QB's, coupling this duo with a late QB with decent job security may be a viable option. Using Gray's ADP chart, you could get Leinart in the 11th, Tarvaris Jackson in the 17th, and Warner in the 19th of a 12-team league. I know it's 3 roster spots for essentially 2 QB's, but the bonus is that you get to use your first 10 picks on other positions. Getting top 5-8 QB production using the 11th and 19th round picks seems like a great deal to me. You could use those 2 picks in the first 10 rounds to nab a decent TE, and the other pick for RB or WR depth.

This is just an idea of what you may be able to draft from the 9th spot (Gray's ADP in parenthesis):

1.9 - RB Clinton Portis (1.9) - Some like him, some don't, but he is deserving of the 1.9 pick

2.4 - WR Terrell Owens (2.4) - same as above

3.9 - WR Torry Holt (3.12) - I ain't sticking a fork in Holt just yet, he is undervalued after at least 10 other WR's are gone

4.4 - RB Edgerrin James (4.9) - The old man is still going to be a workhorse in 2008

5.9 - RB Thomas Jones (5.8) - cross your fingers on this one, if TJ's gone, then take your favorite RB still on the board

6.4 - TE Chris Cooley (6.7) - It was either him or Dallas Clark; I choose Cooley

7.9 - WR Anthony Gonzalez (8.2) - Marvin is toast IMO, and that makes Gonzalez underrated

8.4 - RB Deuce McAllister (8.5) - Risky pick coming back from injury, but has proven before that he can come back

9.9 - WR Reggie Brown (9.11) - A very respectable WR4 as your bye week filler

10.4 - TE Tony Scheffler (10.8) - A very solid TE2 with low-end TE1 potential

11.9 - QB Matt Leinart (11.10) - Finally I take a QB!

12.4 - RB Ladell Betts (13.6) - Betts will get the lion's share of the carries if Portis goes down; he's one of a few worthy cuffs

13.9 - RB Warrick Dunn (13.11) - Worthy of a late 13th rounder during his swan song back where he started

14.4 - D Seattle Seahawks (14.4) - Not a great D, but their schedule allows them to score decent fantasy points

15.9 - WR Robert Meachem (16.5) - After Colston, there isn't great competition, worthy of a sleeper pick as your WR5

16.4 - QB Tarvaris Jackson (17.2) - He's only your backup QB for ARI's bye, so don't sweat it

17.9 - K Nate Kaeding (18.3) - Chose him as a homer pick

18.4 - QB Kurt Warner (19.8) - possible at the 19.9 pick, but let's just play it safe here

19.9 - K (Insert name here) - Take whoever you want; normally I wouldn't draft a 2nd K, but let's just do it for this test

20.4 - D Buffalo Bills (20.9) - The Rams give up fantasy points to defenses during SEA's bye; also I think they are underrated

Wow, I just realized I took my backup TE before my QB1, crazy, huh? What's even crazier is that I think my QB3 is the most likely to be my QB1. Anyways, here is what my starting roster would look like:

QB - Warner

RB - Portis

RB - Edge

WR - TO

WR - Holt

WR - Gonzalez

TE - Cooley

D - SEA

K - Kaeding

Obviously, this team is one that I'd be happy with, but it may not work for everyone else. As far as the strategy of nabbing the Leinart/Warner combo, what do you think? Does it have merit?

 

[David Yudkin]

I've been suggesting this for the past couple months . . .

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I like Leinart/Warner in best ball...redraft type leagues where you have the standard only start 1...not so much. I have a feeling both of them will be in and out of the line up this year...unless its best ball where you can enjoy Warner coming off the bench and tossing 200/2TD in the 2nd half, I just think its risky.

 

[massraider]

I like the concept, I think it's a swing for the fences move, which I always like.

But I don't like this particular one. If I had to guess what happens here, I'd say that the Cards will force Leinart, the better QB will sit on the bench, and the passing offense's numbers will suffer. I think Leinart will be average at best. Which is a bummer, because if he was a complete stiff, they might put Warner in earlier.

I could easily envision a situation where the Cards QBs start putting up decent numbers, but by that time, fantasy owners could be out of the race.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I like Leinart/Warner in best ball...redraft type leagues where you have the standard only start 1...not so much. I have a feeling both of them will be in and out of the line up this year...unless its best ball where you can enjoy Warner coming off the bench and tossing 200/2TD in the 2nd half, I just think its risky.

We thought of it as a QB carousel last year, but in reality only games 3 thru 5 did Warner come in as the relief pitcher for Leinart. From game 6 on it was the Kurt Warner show. ARI won't play that game this year, IMO. I see it shaking out only 1 of 3 ways:1) Warner starts from game 1 and plays the whole season, or until injury2) Leinart starts from game 1 and plays the whole season, or until injury3) Leinart starts game 1, then Warner takes over if/when Leinart falters, Warner then holds onto the job for rest of seasonDo you really think ARI is going to go through what they did at the start of last year? If so, how many games do you think they play QBBC committee in? I know you said in another thread that you don't like projections, but please, oh please, give me a number.As I said in the OP, I would hope that scenario 1 is the way it unfolds, as that would produce the best fantasy points.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

Interesting idea. I had Warner in two leagues last year, and still have him in a dynasty, where I'm trying to decide what to do with him. Tough to figure out what will go on there. I hope that QBBC garbage is a thing of the past, but fear it isn't. Maybe it won't be QBBC, but I can see them pulling one for the other a few times throughout the season. I have the feeling the light won't come on for Lienart. He looked so lost last year, and doesn't seem like he's serious about the NFL. I like your strategy, but think the Arizona QB will only be effective if it's Warner, and Lienart is going to get first crack again. In a larger roster league you could take someone a bit late in the QB pile say round 8 or so (maybe a Delhomme, Schaub type) and then back them up with a combo of Lienart/Warner. I don't like to roster 3 QBs in a redraft however.

 

[Tanner9919]

for what its worth:

during the final 8 games of 2007, Warner threw more TD passes(21) than Tom Brady(20).

 

[Dirty Weasel]

for what its worth: during the final 8 games of 2007, Warner threw more TD passes(21) than Tom Brady(20).

I can easily see Warner being no worse than QB8 if he starts 14 games. Leinart, OTOH, would not fare as well.

 

[RJS113]

I've been planning on doing this for quite a while now, but I disagree with two things:

1. I don't think you can risk waiting until the 11th round to take Leinart. I think you need to reach a little bit and take him in round 9 or 10. If someone else takes Leinart before you, then you are screwed. I agree that the combo will provide a solid QB1, so its worth reaching a little for.

2. While I HOPE the Cardinals won't have a QBBC, there is no evidence to show that won't be the case. The Cards stopped using QBBC last year because Leinart got hurt, not because they didnt want to do it anymore. With that said, you have to have another QB on your team better than Tavaris Jackson. I think you need to draft another QB in rounds 7-10 for insurance. I'd be fine with Rodgers, Delhomme, Shaub, and maybe a couple others. Maybe you are higher on Jackson then I am, but I think you need to have a QB you'd be comfortable starting if the Cards do use a QBBC.

Something like this would work for me:

Round 8: Matt Schaub

Round 9: Matt Leinart

Round 12: Kurt Warner

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

If I see someone with Leinart as their only QB, I will grab Warner well before the 18th.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

In my 12 team initial dynasty draft, I took slow and steady Eli in the 8th, Leinart in the 12th, Warner in the 22nd.

Arizona put up better passing numbers than Indy last year, albeit slightly. A 12th and 22nd for the equivalent production of Peyton Manning? Definitely a home run swing.

Perfect strategy for the QBBC proponents, if you have the roster space.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

In my 12 team initial dynasty draft, I took slow and steady Eli in the 8th, Leinart in the 12th, Warner in the 22nd.Arizona put up better passing numbers than Indy last year, albeit slightly. A 12th and 22nd for the equivalent production of Peyton Manning? Definitely a home run swing.Perfect strategy for the QBBC proponents, if you have the roster space.

Oh. I know that league. I think the guy you play the first week is gonna kick your ###.

 

[joffer]

i like this, have to think about it some more

 

[radballs]

If I see someone with Leinart as their only QB, I will grab Warner well before the 18th.

Good post. Warner has been going much earlier than the 18th in all the drafts I've done so far this year.

 

[bostonfred]

The reason you can get them so late right now is that nobody knows which one is going to start, or how Leinart looks, or how tight a leash Warner will have if he starts. Once the season gets closer, they'll both edge up to the point that they're not as good a value.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

In my 12 team initial dynasty draft, I took slow and steady Eli in the 8th, Leinart in the 12th, Warner in the 22nd.Arizona put up better passing numbers than Indy last year, albeit slightly. A 12th and 22nd for the equivalent production of Peyton Manning? Definitely a home run swing.Perfect strategy for the QBBC proponents, if you have the roster space.

Oh. I know that league. I think the guy you play the first week is gonna kick your ###.

Hmm.... that's at least 4 people in the league that know my handle here, and it appears you found me well before our draft.... who spilled the beans?

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Back on topic: I think Leinart is being sold short by his naysayers. He looked bad last year, but he had a very solid rookie year: the equivalent of 11 games (10 full games, 1 half game, 1 fourth quarter) would have projected out to a 16 game total of 3700 yards passing and 19 total TDs.

There is reason to be cautious, for sure, but some seem to be pretty much writing him off. He is entering just his 3rd season...

We'll see what happens in camp and preseason, but right now his cost is quite low compared to the possible reward.

 

[Tau837]

If I see someone with Leinart as their only QB, I will grab Warner well before the 18th.

I was thinking the same thing. Plus, there may be owners who don't do it to screw the Leinart owner, but simply because they think Warner will ultimately be the starter and are aware of how good he was last year.

 

[Tau837]

I've been planning on doing this for quite a while now, but I disagree with two things:1. I don't think you can risk waiting until the 11th round to take Leinart. I think you need to reach a little bit and take him in round 9 or 10. If someone else takes Leinart before you, then you are screwed. I agree that the combo will provide a solid QB1, so its worth reaching a little for. 2. While I HOPE the Cardinals won't have a QBBC, there is no evidence to show that won't be the case. The Cards stopped using QBBC last year because Leinart got hurt, not because they didnt want to do it anymore. With that said, you have to have another QB on your team better than Tavaris Jackson. I think you need to draft another QB in rounds 7-10 for insurance. I'd be fine with Rodgers, Delhomme, Shaub, and maybe a couple others. Maybe you are higher on Jackson then I am, but I think you need to have a QB you'd be comfortable starting if the Cards do use a QBBC. Something like this would work for me:Round 8: Matt SchaubRound 9: Matt LeinartRound 12: Kurt Warner

The only problem with this is roster limits. In my redraft league, we only have 6 bench spots, and it's very hard to use 2 for QBs. But in leagues with deeper benches, I like the Leinart/Warner combo as the backup QB or as a QBBC member more than as my primary QB. That way, if one of them emerges, great, but if not there is another viable option.