A Simple Measure of Competitive Consistency (1 Viewer)

[The Jerk]

This is nothing fancy, but I got to thinking about this due to debates over which franchises are the most successful in the Super Bowl era and also the old argument about whether fans would trade one championship for a decade of missing the playoffs.

Rather than look at titles, these two lists look at which teams have been consistently competitive. Both lists display the most recent time that franchises have had five year droughts. The first list is playoff appearances. The second list is playoff wins. Seasons refers to the year in which the regular season began in all cases.

For example, the Seattle Seahawks are listed as 1989-1998 under playoffs, and at 1985-2004 under wins. This means that the last time the Seahawks went at least five consecutive seasons without making the playoffs was 1998, and the last time they went at least five consecutive seasons without a playoff win was in 2004.

PLAYOFFS WINSFranchise Seasons Franchise SeasonsMinnesota Vikings 1963-1967 Pittsburgh Steelers 1933-1971Pittsburgh Steelers 1948-1971 Philadelphia Eagles 1981-1991Denver Broncos 1972-1976 Green Bay Packers 1983-1992New York Giants 1964-1980 New England Patriots 1986-1995Philadelphia Eagles 1982-1987 Minnesota Vikings 1989-1996Dallas Cowboys 1986-1990 Atlanta Falcons 1992-1997Atlanta Falcons 1983-1990 New York Jets 1992-1997Green Bay Packers 1983-1992 St. Louis Rams 1990-1998New England Patriots 1987-1993 Indianapolis Colts 1996-2002Indianapolis Colts 1988-1994 Carolina Panthers 1997-2002Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1983-1997 Washington Redskins 2000-2004New York Jets 1992-1997 Denver Broncos 1999-2004Tennessee Titans 1994-1998 Seattle Seahawks 1985-2004St. Louis Rams 1990-1998 New Orleans Saints 2001-2005Seattle Seahawks 1989-1998 Chicago Bears 1995-2005Baltimore Ravens* 1995-1999 New York Giants 2001-2006Chicago Bears 1995-2000 Jacksonville Jaguars 2000-2006Kansas City Chiefs 1998-2002 San Diego Chargers 1995-2006Carolina Panthers 1997-2002 Baltimore Ravens 2002-2007San Diego Chargers 1996-2002 Arizona Cardinals 1999-2007Jacksonville Jaguars 2000-2004 Tennessee Titans 2004-2008Washington Redskins 2000-2004 Oakland Raiders 2003-2008Cincinnati Bengals 1991-2004 San Francisco 49ers 2003-2008New Orleans Saints 2001-2005 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2003-2008Miami Dolphins 2002-2007 Houston Texans** 2002-2008Arizona Cardinals 1999-2007 Miami Dolphins 2001-2008Cleveland Browns 2003-2008 Cleveland Browns*** 1999-2008Oakland Raiders 2003-2008 Dallas Cowboys 1997-2008San Francisco 49ers 2003-2008 Buffalo Bills 1996-2008Houston Texans** 2002-2008 Kansas City Chiefs 1994-2008Buffalo Bills 2000-2008 Detroit Lions 1992-2008Detroit Lions 2000-2008 Cincinnati Bengals 1991-2008* counts 1995 season when team was still located in Cleveland; arguably not same franchise, but same players** Texans have never qualified for playoffs*** could list as 1995-2008, as 1995 Cleveland Browns did not make playoffs before move to Baltimore; franchise restarted in 1999For me, the WINS side is the more interesting list.12 franchises currently have playoff win droughts of at least five seasons.

Another ten franchises ended a 5-year (or longer) drought within the past five seasons.

The Steelers have gone 20 years longer than the next closest team on the list (without a five-year playoff win drought). So after nearly 40 years without a playoff victory, they have had at least one playoff win in every five season window since.

On the PLAYOFFS side, I was very surprised to see the Vikings top the list.

 

[PatrickT]

Shocked to see the Falcons as high as they are on each side of the list. I'm not a stats guy AT ALL, but our seasons between playoff appearances have been fairly awful, so I wonder how meaningful this is. Since 97, .500 or less in 7 seasons, 4 of those with 5 or less wins.

So the Falcons are kinda like golf. Every once in awhile, something incredibly beautiful happens that brings you back for more.

 

[The Jerk]

Shocked to see the Falcons as high as they are on each side of the list. I'm not a stats guy AT ALL, but our seasons between playoff appearances have been fairly awful, so I wonder how meaningful this is. Since 97, .500 or less in 7 seasons, 4 of those with 5 or less wins. So the Falcons are kinda like golf. Every once in awhile, something incredibly beautiful happens that brings you back for more.

All you need to do to keep yourself "alive" in both of these lists is to win one playoff game every five seasons like clockwork. As far as meaning goes, I don't think this means any more than what it says, that teams are making the playoffs and winning a playoff game at least once every few seasons. All these lists catch with certainty is that any team that has been in a prolonged state of mediocrity or worse will be noticed by the 5+ season stretches. As you pointed out, just being high on the list is no guarantee of any major accomplishment. However, on average, the listing makes sense. Just like any distribution, there are one or two teams that stand out both in terms of appearing to be too high or too low.