A stand on Peyton Hillis (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

It seems that Peyton Hillis is going to be one of the bigger question marks going into this season. I won't go into it too much, as I think we all know why that is the case: He was a fullback, with no track record, that came out of nowhere to post monster numbers, before fading a bit at the end. He doesn't look like most running backs and I think that scares people, myself included.

I will share my opinion on Hillis below, if you care to read. If not, I am hoping others will share their opinions on him as well.

The last two weeks I have watched every play in which Hillis was directly involved on the game log (carries, receptions, targets, tackles, et cetera). I think he is one of a few guys that it will pay off to have a very informed, personal opinion on, because the status quo is all over the board.

I will start out by stating that I think Hillis is a Dynasty RB1 and do have him in the top 12 in my current PPR rankings. That was not the case before I made it a point to watch him.

The first thing that stood out to me was the circumstances in which Hillis came to own the starting RB position. I assumed it was because Harrison struggled. That was not the case. The Browns came into the season opener fully expecting Hillis to be a big part of the offense and to use him as a HB often. I think that is a very good sign--he wasn't simply the only option, or a last resort. He had an entire offseason with the coaching staff and they decided that giving Hillis the ball was going to help the team win. Enough so that they were patient with him after early fumbling issues.

The second thing that caught my attention was how natural running the ball was for Hillis. Because of his size, built, and--if I can be honest without being called racist--I am sure his skin color played a part as well. I wasn't expecting him to as fluid, balanced, and composed as he was. He showed good vision, patience, and just looked natural.

His speed caught me by surprise too. Not his top end speed, but his short/intermediate burst was plenty. He did look slow, at times, finding the corner, but once he turned his shoulders he got where he wanted to go pretty fast. Surprisingly fast, at the very least.

His ability to catch the football and all that entails, is great. His hands are great, he can present a big target or radius out of the backfield, and turning up the field after the catch is easy for him. There was a play in which the Browns offense motioned Hillis out of the back field to the far right, acting as a WR. He ran a double move (hitch n' go), destroyed the defender with the fake, and was open by a good deal. The ball was thrown a little high and didn't hit Hillis in stride. He made a great adjustment, and, contorting his body, made an impressive, jumping catch, plucking the ball at his highest point, using only his hands. I think his ability to catch will negate some risk in PPR leagues.

The aspect of his game that didn't surprise me was his short yardage running. I won't go into much, as I am sure we all know, Peyton Hillis is a very strong and powerful runner and an ideal short yardage back.

I think Hillis is for real and I think he is safer than most give him credit for. There is always the concern that he returns to a FB role. But I think Cleveland knows what they have and will use him accordingly. I think the worst case scenario involves Hillis as a RBBC back, getting goal line carries and targets out of the backfield. I think, even in that rose, Hillis can produce solid numbers. I don't think that floor is enough to ignore his ceiling, which he has shown us.

Thoughts?

 

[eaglesfan7]

I agree about Hillis even if most people do not believe in him. I think he'll hold off Hardesty for the starting gig but will lost some carries and end up as part of a RBBC since it is just the smart thing to do for the team. Keeping each back fresh works out better for the team if both backs have talent.

Where did you watch all the clips from this past season of Hillis?

 

[Concept Coop]

I agree about Hillis even if most people do not believe in him. I think he'll hold off Hardesty for the starting gig but will lost some carries and end up as part of a RBBC since it is just the smart thing to do for the team. Keeping each back fresh works out better for the team if both backs have talent. Where did you watch all the clips from this past season of Hillis?

NFL.comThey have a service that you can pay for. It lets you watch every game and even lets you sort by a specific player. I think it is $15 for a month, I paid $35 for the entire offseason. If you want to "split" the costs, send me a PM.

 

[Steed]

He didn't come out of nowhere. I'd say we have 1.5 seasons of track record, everything he did in Cleveland he did for Shanny 2 years ago. Score another idiotic personnel move for McDaniels.

 

[moderated]

just hope he is smart about his cycles and doesn't get popped for PED's

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It seems that Peyton Hillis is going to be one of the bigger question marks going into this season. I won't go into it too much, as I think we all know why that is the case: He was a fullback, with no track record, that came out of nowhere to post monster numbers, before fading a bit at the end. He doesn't look like most running backs and I think that scares people, myself included.

While I know what you meant, I did just want to point out that he did give us a glimpse of his potential when he was used as a last resort in Denver as a rookie. In six games he rushed for 343 yards (5 ypc) and scored 5 TDs while also accumulating 179 yards receiving and another TD.The dude has quick feet for a guy his size and adequate straight line speed. He was a HB his first two years at Arkansas, but was moved to FB to make way for Jones and McFadden.

I do think that Hardesty will be involved next season and thus Hillis' numbers will dip a little, but personally I don't think he's a one hit wonder. I think he's going to continue being a force.

 

[Sweet Love]

I agree about Hillis even if most people do not believe in him. I think he'll hold off Hardesty for the starting gig but will lost some carries and end up as part of a RBBC since it is just the smart thing to do for the team. Keeping each back fresh works out better for the team if both backs have talent. Where did you watch all the clips from this past season of Hillis?

NFL.comThey have a service that you can pay for. It lets you watch every game and even lets you sort by a specific player. I think it is $15 for a month, I paid $35 for the entire offseason. If you want to "split" the costs, send me a PM.

Good for you doing your homework on him...I agree that he looks the part and as someone who owns him in a keep 3 (I can only keep 2 RBs and haave Hillis, Rice and MJD), I am going to keep Hillis and most likely, Rice. My only concern is that he was a "Mangini guy"...there are artciles out there that reference Mangini's love of Hillis when Mangini was with the Jets and threw out a hail mary during the Brady quinn trade to get him...and he did. People love to rail Mangini, but he makes RBs famous...he extended what was thought to be a "hiccup" in the underachieveing career of Thomas Jones, and has always found a way to squeeze blood out of the rock of his RBs (OK, enough with the cliches). Hopefully Cleveland understands what they have...I will take the odds with Holmgren at the helm...It is hard to deny what he did and in reality, and this is a team that is at least 2+ years from dedicating itself to the pass...hopefully they use him as a bridge.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Change in coaching staff presents some risk.

The overlap in Hardesty and Hillis is so high you can't guarantee goalline in a RBBC situation. Cleveland scored 26 offensive TDs and Hillis had half of them. That ratio can't continue regardless of Hardesty, and that is the main reason he was elite.

Compare to SJax in Shurmur's old haunts - 5 TDs per year over Shurmur's tenure with 370+ touches.

Bruisers fade fast. Worst case scenario is RBBC, TDs come back to earth, receptions come back to earth, RB3 in redraft, beat up and cast off in 2012. (I'll go back to hoarding water in the basement now.)

 

[eaglesfan7]

I agree about Hillis even if most people do not believe in him. I think he'll hold off Hardesty for the starting gig but will lost some carries and end up as part of a RBBC since it is just the smart thing to do for the team. Keeping each back fresh works out better for the team if both backs have talent. Where did you watch all the clips from this past season of Hillis?

NFL.comThey have a service that you can pay for. It lets you watch every game and even lets you sort by a specific player. I think it is $15 for a month, I paid $35 for the entire offseason. If you want to "split" the costs, send me a PM.

Good for you doing your homework on him...I agree that he looks the part and as someone who owns him in a keep 3 (I can only keep 2 RBs and haave Hillis, Rice and MJD), I am going to keep Hillis and most likely, Rice. My only concern is that he was a "Mangini guy"...there are artciles out there that reference Mangini's love of Hillis when Mangini was with the Jets and threw out a hail mary during the Brady quinn trade to get him...and he did. People love to rail Mangini, but he makes RBs famous...he extended what was thought to be a "hiccup" in the underachieveing career of Thomas Jones, and has always found a way to squeeze blood out of the rock of his RBs (OK, enough with the cliches). Hopefully Cleveland understands what they have...I will take the odds with Holmgren at the helm...It is hard to deny what he did and in reality, and this is a team that is at least 2+ years from dedicating itself to the pass...hopefully they use him as a bridge.

Where is Mangini now? I ask because I wonder if he has taken an assistant job somewhere else.

 

[Sweet Love]

I agree about Hillis even if most people do not believe in him. I think he'll hold off Hardesty for the starting gig but will lost some carries and end up as part of a RBBC since it is just the smart thing to do for the team. Keeping each back fresh works out better for the team if both backs have talent. Where did you watch all the clips from this past season of Hillis?

NFL.comThey have a service that you can pay for. It lets you watch every game and even lets you sort by a specific player. I think it is $15 for a month, I paid $35 for the entire offseason. If you want to "split" the costs, send me a PM.

Good for you doing your homework on him...I agree that he looks the part and as someone who owns him in a keep 3 (I can only keep 2 RBs and haave Hillis, Rice and MJD), I am going to keep Hillis and most likely, Rice. My only concern is that he was a "Mangini guy"...there are artciles out there that reference Mangini's love of Hillis when Mangini was with the Jets and threw out a hail mary during the Brady quinn trade to get him...and he did. People love to rail Mangini, but he makes RBs famous...he extended what was thought to be a "hiccup" in the underachieveing career of Thomas Jones, and has always found a way to squeeze blood out of the rock of his RBs (OK, enough with the cliches). Hopefully Cleveland understands what they have...I will take the odds with Holmgren at the helm...It is hard to deny what he did and in reality, and this is a team that is at least 2+ years from dedicating itself to the pass...hopefully they use him as a bridge.

Where is Mangini now? I ask because I wonder if he has taken an assistant job somewhere else.

Off the top of my head, he interviewed in Tenn, and did not get the job...unfortunately, he has a defensive background, so if he does not get a HC gig (which he will not unless we have Scab football), his "ground it and pound it" prowess will go unfulfilled.

 

[blackbird001]

I may be sending you a PM as well.

I like your analysis on Hillis. Some reasons for concern, Hillis will not hold off Hardesty. Hardesty is talented enough to force carries, so most probable case, I think, is a RBBC. Recent comments coming from the browns (I apologize for not including a link, I just tried to find it and couldn't) had someone desiring to have Hillis resume his FB role. That sounds asinine, but I think that is your worst case scenario. Best case scenario for Hillis is Hardesty can't remain healthy, but I don't know if all this adds up to a dynasty RB1. Definitely an upside of RB1, but Hardesty's presence is enough to whittle him down significantly, I believe.

Either way, I don't see him sniffing his 2010 production without another significant injury to Hardesty.

 

[Concept Coop]

Change in coaching staff presents some risk.The overlap in Hardesty and Hillis is so high you can't guarantee goalline in a RBBC situation. Cleveland scored 26 offensive TDs and Hillis had half of them. That ratio can't continue regardless of Hardesty, and that is the main reason he was elite. Compare to SJax in Shurmur's old haunts - 5 TDs per year over Shurmur's tenure with 370+ touches. Bruisers fade fast. Worst case scenario is RBBC, TDs come back to earth, receptions come back to earth, RB3 in redraft, beat up and cast off in 2012. (I'll go back to hoarding water in the basement now.)

Hillis carried the ball roughly twice as much after being named the starter. His receptions were right on par, however. I don't see his receptions coming back down to earth--He is still one of the better pass protectors in the NFL, he still has great hands, and McCoy will still be looking to dump the ball off. I don't see a rusty rookie threating that role.He averaged 18.78 carries a game after being named the starter (sans the Pitt game). I haven't done the research to find out how many carries the other backs on the roster got, but I think losing 30% is close to a reasonable worst case scenerio. Some of the other carries will be used to feed Hardesty, so not all of them will be carved out of Hillis' load. Hence:208/880/7 + 60/500/2 = 247 fantasy points; 15.4/game.

 

[stbugs]

I can't recall the other thread I replied to where I said that Hillis would be overrated going into 2011, but it had mainly to do with how much of the offense he was last year. If McCoy develops more and they draft a decent WR/throw more, his numbers will go down. If any other RB takes any carries, his numbers go down. All other RBs (including FBs) had just under 3 total touches a game. Hillis received 21+ touches a game. Hillis may receive around the same number of carries, but I really think his receptions could take a big hit. In PPR, he had about 120 FPs receiving and 183 FPs rushing.

For any RB that plays Baltimore and Pittsburgh 4 times a year (note how Baltimore stopped him in game 2 at Cleveland), he has to maintain the carries and receptions to stay at the top. I just don't think he will. He had 0 TDs and averaged 8ppg PPR (5ppg non-PPR) in his last 5 weeks. That is worrisome to me, especially since he was still the bulk of all RB touches.

He may do well, but I think a RB that got 88% of all RB touches and 100% of all RB TDs is too high a risk for me to chance a 1st round/early 2nd round pick on him. Especially, if he doesn't play Pittsburgh/Baltimore in week 17 like he did last year.

 

[squistion]

He didn't come out of nowhere. I'd say we have 1.5 seasons of track record, everything he did in Cleveland he did for Shanny 2 years ago. Score another idiotic personnel move for McDaniels.

Not only that, but I remember Cecil Lammey posting in an August 2009 Bronocs thread here that Hillis looked like the best RB of the group in training camp. But McDaniels viewed him as one of Shanahan's guys and never really gave him a chance, kept insisting on using his pick (Moreno) even though he was not performing that well.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I don't see his receptions coming back down to earth--He is still one of the better pass protectors in the NFL, he still has great hands, and McCoy will still be looking to dump the ball off. I don't see a rusty rookie threating that role.

Wut about improved play from WR/TE and a new OC? I would bet the under on 60.

Hence:208/880/7 + 60/500/2 = 247 fantasy points; 15.4/game.

I might buy that as expected case not worst. Rushing yards look valid as a worst case, but the rest probably qualifies as optimistic.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Also, re: track record, it's worth noting that Peyton Hillis gained 151 yards from scrimmage and scored 4 TDs against #1 LSU in 2007, the year they had one of the best defenses in college football and won the MNC.

 

[loose circuits]

not sure how a QB developing and better WR threats would hurt the guy. Doesn't that mean the chains will be moving more?

I'd like to see him without the pressure of being the entire offense. I think he can be more effective in less work if he's not being run into the ground

the hillis to FB rhetoric to me only sounds like a way to get him and Hardesty on the field at the same time. I think he could end up being a great receiver out of those sets and will dominate reps during the single back sets.

 

[thriftyrocker]

not sure how a QB developing and better WR threats would hurt the guy. Doesn't that mean the chains will be moving more?

It's still Cleveland (sorry Browns fans). The pie won't grow much, but his portion will shrink. Run game will be less of an emphasis.

I'd like to see him without the pressure of being the entire offense. I think he can be more effective in less work if he's not being run into the ground

Let's not pretend he's Jamaal Charles. He's a bruiser that wears out defenses. If he's not that, he's Marion Barber on a bad team.

 

[No Way Jose]

For some reason he reminds me of LeRon McClain. McClain also looked all world a few years ago, and now has disappeared. I think Hillis is worth a shot, but I think someone will want him earlier than I will.

 

[Fiddles]

nice thread coop. you should head to the mock draft forum and join the pdsl survivor leagues.

 

[Concept Coop]

Let's not pretend he's Jamaal Charles. He's a bruiser that wears out defenses. If he's not that, he's Marion Barber on a bad team.

Or we can pretend he is Bradon Jacobs and look at what he did in a scaled back role with fresh legs.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Let's not pretend he's Jamaal Charles. He's a bruiser that wears out defenses. If he's not that, he's Marion Barber on a bad team.

Or we can pretend he is Bradon Jacobs and look at what he did in a scaled back role with fresh legs.

That's a worster case scenario than what you originally prescribed.I actually meant Julius Jones-era Barber not Felix Jones-era Barber.

 

[Shutout]

ok Owners, open up your books and show us your FF rosters. I suspect a few of you have Hillis on them (and probably don't have hardesty to hedge your bet).

I'll play the other side of the coin here.

There is no denying his production last year but I see several red flags that would cause me NOT to be comfortable with him as a dynasty RB1.

-He CLEARLY wore down last year at the end of the season. In the last five games of the year, he did not score any TDs in any fashion and in 3 of those five games, he averaged less than 3 yards/carry. That is the result of what others have said here about bruisers fading fast and its basically the same thing the team has lent fuel to in saying he will have a shared backfield next year. the team saw it and now they are going to address it and when you are a bruiser, not a home run hitter, a handful of carries each week mean a lot (think of jamal lewis...when he had his burst and speed, he was beastly. When he became more of a pile mover, he suffered significantly unless he got into games when he had 20+ carries).

-He plays 4 games a year against the ravens and Steelers. He surprised the Ravens (they admitted it), but on that 2nd go around, they held him to under 3 yards a carry. Playing 25% of your season against two teams that perennially slam the door on your RB is not good news. Its even worse news in FF when you don't know if your week 15 and 16 playoff weeks might look like @Pittsburgh, @ Baltimore.

-He had 2 huge games against very poor rund defense teams. take out those two games and he averaged about 12.75 FF points/week. compared to other RBs, that puts him in the RB18-RB22 range.

I won't say he is not a good player or can't do it because he DID have a nice season last year. But overall, I can't sign off on being ok with him as my dynasty RB1 because I can find too many other guys that would be better overall, longer.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

-He had 2 huge games against very poor rund defense teams. take out those two games and he averaged about 12.75 FF points/week. compared to other RBs, that puts him in the RB18-RB22 range.

Where would he rank if you took out the big games against poor defenses for the other RBs in the league?

 

[ClownDogs]

-He had 2 huge games against very poor rund defense teams. take out those two games and he averaged about 12.75 FF points/week. compared to other RBs, that puts him in the RB18-RB22 range.

Where would he rank if you took out the big games against poor defenses for the other RBs in the league?

Never really did like the "if you take out his best games, he is just average" routine. ALL players have good and bad games, that is the beauty of using averages.

 

[LHUCKS]

just hope he is smart about his cycles and doesn't get popped for PED's

 

[Boom Switch]

This guy folded like a cheap suit at the end of the year, Im staying clear of him. I still think a healthy hardesty takes that job...

 

[Concept Coop]

This guy folded like a cheap suit at the end of the year, Im staying clear of him. I still think a healthy hardesty takes that job...

This is just a silly statement. Did you watch the games? The only two games that his YPC really dipped were the Steelers and Ravens. The offensive line didn't do Hillis any favors. The Steelers shut down DMC too. Who takes his job?

 

[Scooby1974]

This guy folded like a cheap suit at the end of the year, Im staying clear of him. I still think a healthy hardesty takes that job...

This is just a silly statement. Did you watch the games? The only two games that his YPC really dipped were the Steelers and Ravens. The offensive line didn't do Hillis any favors. The Steelers shut down DMC too. Who takes his job?

Just trying to help put the dots together for you... I see more of a 60/40 Hillis split ASSuMING Hardesty comes back strong, with Hillis likely getting the majority of goal line/short yardage/3rd down work. Someone mentioned MBIII's roll with Julius Jones earlier, and I tend to agree.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Where did you watch all the clips from this past season of Hillis?

PH Vids

 

[Shutout]

-He had 2 huge games against very poor rund defense teams. take out those two games and he averaged about 12.75 FF points/week. compared to other RBs, that puts him in the RB18-RB22 range.

Where would he rank if you took out the big games against poor defenses for the other RBs in the league?

Using the scoring from where I drew the orignal numbers and reflecting it to compare based on number of games each of the top 20 RBs played, noting their comparative percentile decreases,Hillis becomes exactly middle of the road (#10) in how much he would slip. McFadden and Gore become the biggest losers by far while mendy, Jamal Charles, and SJAX become the most consistent (immune to the big game).It was a fair enough question and it looks like Hillis is about as insulated and typical as the rest. So, I take it that if we dismiss this thought all together, and go strictly by the numbers, then the other handful of points stil stick (no TDs in last 5 weeks, less than 4/carry in majority of the games down the stretch, staff on record saying their is a split coming and number of carries being a key component to bruiser backs being able to maintain the gaudy stats, and he will play four games in division each year that have long standing histories of shutting down RBs).Again, not saying he isn't good and capable, but when you throw a tag out there that says Dynasty RB1, he's got to be young. He's got to show that he is consistent, from Week 1-17. He's got to have very few question marks with health and opportunity, etc. I just don't think I wouldn't see a number of other guys I like better.

 

[pecorino]

peyton hillis reminds me (and probably lots of other folks) of mike alstott. if i remember correctly, alstott put up a few very good years but also found himself playing different roles in other years and disappearing fantasy-wise. i love hillis, even drafted him out of college in dynasty a couple years ago, but i think he is a sell high.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

-He had 2 huge games against very poor rund defense teams. take out those two games and he averaged about 12.75 FF points/week. compared to other RBs, that puts him in the RB18-RB22 range.

Where would he rank if you took out the big games against poor defenses for the other RBs in the league?

Using the scoring from where I drew the orignal numbers and reflecting it to compare based on number of games each of the top 20 RBs played, noting their comparative percentile decreases,Hillis becomes exactly middle of the road (#10) in how much he would slip. McFadden and Gore become the biggest losers by far while mendy, Jamal Charles, and SJAX become the most consistent (immune to the big game).It was a fair enough question and it looks like Hillis is about as insulated and typical as the rest. So, I take it that if we dismiss this thought all together, and go strictly by the numbers, then the other handful of points stil stick (no TDs in last 5 weeks, less than 4/carry in majority of the games down the stretch, staff on record saying their is a split coming and number of carries being a key component to bruiser backs being able to maintain the gaudy stats, and he will play four games in division each year that have long standing histories of shutting down RBs).Again, not saying he isn't good and capable, but when you throw a tag out there that says Dynasty RB1, he's got to be young. He's got to show that he is consistent, from Week 1-17. He's got to have very few question marks with health and opportunity, etc. I just don't think I wouldn't see a number of other guys I like better.

I agree with most of your points and personally I wouldn't feel comfortable labeling him or owning him as a RB1, but I don't see him just falling into oblivion next year. The kid is a player. I mentioned that I do think Hardesty gets worked into the offense so inevitably Hillis' numbers will slip - but at the same time that should also help keep him fresher so that he is more consistent down the stretch and has less of a "fade" during those last five weeks. Of course it didn't help that he played Pittsburgh and Baltimore during two of those contests (a dilemma that of course follows him into 2011) or that Jake Delhomme played in two of those games (a dilemma that hopefully he never has to be burdened with again).I like the comparisons to Marion Barber during the Julius Jones era - I think that production is a good baseline to start with when setting his projections going forward.

 

[Concept Coop]

Again, not saying he isn't good and capable, but when you throw a tag out there that says Dynasty RB1, he's got to be young. He's got to show that he is consistent, from Week 1-17. He's got to have very few question marks with health and opportunity, etc. I just don't think I wouldn't see a number of other guys I like better.

Matt Forte one of those guys?Forte has been really high on the rankings that have come out lately, and after a strong end of the season, I get it. I actually have the two very close, with Hillis one spot ahead of Forte. I think Hillis is the more talented player and is no more prone to a RBBC than Forte is, yet most don't find that to be the case. They do a lot of the same things, with similar results, but Hillis can more the pile more effectively and is better in short yardage situations. I don't mean to play the race card (not only race, but build), but if Peyton Hillis looked like Matt Forte, I don't think we would be having this conversation. There are red flags being thrown all around Hillis, some of which are valid. But you have to decide how you feel about his talent, the rest will work itself out. RBBC are the norm in today's NFL. If a guy in a RBBC can't be an RB1, then there won't be enough RB1 spots to go around. I think Hillis offers a unique skill set and has proven that he can be a PPR monster. Yet, most rank players that have NEVER put a comparable season together ahead of Hillis. Because of Montario Hardesty?!Hillis' season was even better than his numbers suggest. If you go back and watch the Patriot game, you will see how big of a burden he was asked to carry at times. Being the only threat to dominate a game, and still being able to do so is a good sign, even if you can't do in EVERY week--most cant.Lastly, I have not done enough research to know that Hillis' running style or build will lea to him breaking down faster than any other 25 year old running back, so I rank him as I would any other 25 year old RB that I feel is as talented/proven. Nor do I, or will I, take his division strengths into consideration. I wouldn't do that in a dynasty league as so many things can change. Talent is the constant that I like to bank on. If the Browns can get another weapon and McCoy is legit, Hillis won't be the only guy the Steelers and Ravens have to lock in on and things will be open for him. That could happen as soon as this season.Also: If Hillis is not RB1, based on this criteria (and Gore and McFadden are not) what 12 guys are?"got to be young. He's got to show that he is consistent, from Week 1-17. He's got to have very few question marks with health and opportunity, etc."

 

[gianmarco]

peyton hillis reminds me (and probably lots of other folks) of mike alstott. if i remember correctly, alstott put up a few very good years but also found himself playing different roles in other years and disappearing fantasy-wise. i love hillis, even drafted him out of college in dynasty a couple years ago, but i think he is a sell high.

Didn't Alstott also wear #40?

 

[gandalas]

just hope he is smart about his cycles and doesn't get popped for PED's

So how about them Cardinals?

 

[shamrock84]

peyton hillis reminds me (and probably lots of other folks) of mike alstott. if i remember correctly, alstott put up a few very good years but also found himself playing different roles in other years and disappearing fantasy-wise. i love hillis, even drafted him out of college in dynasty a couple years ago, but i think he is a sell high.

Racist

 

[loose circuits]

Also: If Hillis is not RB1, based on this criteria (and Gore and McFadden are not) what 12 guys are?

I'll get it started:FosterAPMcCoyRay RiceCJCharlesMJD?MendyMcFadden (I think he belongs)then you either have young guys with no (or minimal) resumes like Blount, Greene, Stewart, Wells, Matthews, Best, Starks, Moreno, Spiller, etc... or guys nearing their expiration date: SJax, Turner, Gore, Deangelo and it may not be long before Adrian enters this groupnot sure where Bradshaw and Forte fall in the spectrum

 

[No Way Jose]

peyton hillis reminds me (and probably lots of other folks) of mike alstott. if i remember correctly, alstott put up a few very good years but also found himself playing different roles in other years and disappearing fantasy-wise. i love hillis, even drafted him out of college in dynasty a couple years ago, but i think he is a sell high.

Racist

More of a Larry Csonka clone to me.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

peyton hillis reminds me (and probably lots of other folks) of mike alstott. if i remember correctly, alstott put up a few very good years but also found himself playing different roles in other years and disappearing fantasy-wise. i love hillis, even drafted him out of college in dynasty a couple years ago, but i think he is a sell high.

Racist

More of a Larry Csonka clone to me.

I've always thought of him as the Wes Welker of running backs.

 

[Concept Coop]

Also: If Hillis is not RB1, based on this criteria (and Gore and McFadden are not) what 12 guys are?

I'll get it started:FosterAPMcCoyRay RiceCJCharlesMJD?MendyMcFadden (I think he belongs)then you either have young guys with no (or minimal) resumes like Blount, Greene, Stewart, Wells, Matthews, Best, Starks, Moreno, Spiller, etc... or guys nearing their expiration date: SJax, Turner, Gore, Deangelo and it may not be long before Adrian enters this groupnot sure where Bradshaw and Forte fall in the spectrum

I agree 100%. The 9 that you listed, I value more than Hillis in PPR, including McFadden (Mendehal on the same tier as Hillis). After those two tiers, every RB has question marks: Injury, track record, age, RBBC potential, size, reception total, et cetera. So most of the concerns being hurled at Hillis are valid, but they apply to the other backs around him as well. I don't think there are 12 guys that I would feel 100% comfortable having as my RB1. That doesn't mean that the top 12 (rankings, production, projections, etc) are not RB1s.

 

[Concept Coop]

I've always thought of him as the Wes Welker of running backs.

I see him as the Marky Mark of football players.

 

[thriftyrocker]

or guys nearing their expiration date: SJax, Turner, Gore, Deangelo

Hillis is ranked behind these guys a lot of places. He is a lot like those guys - chance of falling apart due to age = chance of Hillis falling off the map. Who is more likely to give you 2 more years of RB1 production - SJax or Hillis? Probably neither, but I would bet on SJax first.

 

[Herb]

Good thread, thx for all the analysis.

Bottom line: In a keep 3 non PPR league, do I keep him or trade him away for a (hopefully) high round pick when I have Gore and Greene/LT on my roster??

 

[loose circuits]

or guys nearing their expiration date: SJax, Turner, Gore, Deangelo

Hillis is ranked behind these guys a lot of places. He is a lot like those guys - chance of falling apart due to age = chance of Hillis falling off the map. Who is more likely to give you 2 more years of RB1 production - SJax or Hillis? Probably neither, but I would bet on SJax first.

Hillis just turned 25. He has way more than 2 years left of production. He's not going to fall off the map. At the least, they will use him in a GL role as well as a receiver out of the backfield. In PPR, that can keep you in top 20 for a long time and a lessened work load would mean more longevity.