A thread on drafting kickers (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

I was looking at some drafts I've been in and observing others from this year. A common theme was that people jumped on last year's best kickers near the top of the kicker food chain. This is not all that unusual, but I looked none the less.

There are still some people that draft with the philosophy that you should draft all your starters first and then pick up your backups (or close to that approach). I would never draft a kicker in the 10th round, but there are people out there that do.

So I looked up how well high scroing kickers did the following year to see how off-base it was in jumping on LAST year's best kickers.

I set the bar at 130 NFL points scored. With kicker scoring varying from year to year for fantasy purposes, it stands to reason that a kicker with a lot of "real" points would also have a lot of fantasy points.

Since the season expanded to 16-games in the late 70s, there have been 37 kickers that scored 130 points in a season. 36 of them did not do so again the following year. The only one that was able to meet that threshold in back to back seasons was Chip Lohmiller for Washington inn 1990 & 1991. Those 37 kickers averaged 139 points the first season but 107 points the next—a 23% drop-off.

By comparison, 107 points ranked as the #15 kicker in NFL scoring last year--a sizeable difference from being a top scorer. Taking a guy early and not even getting fantasy starter production is not worth much at all.

Last year, Rackers, Feeley, and Graham all had 130 or more points, and I would suspect that they too will suffer a decent dropoff. Yet those guys are still getting gobbled up early have been drafted in the Top 5 kickers again this year.

People may want to debate this one saying that PLAYER X will have a lot of field goal opportunities, he has the leg, he plays on a team with a great offense, the defense forces turnovers, they stall in the red zone, blah, blah, blah. The bottom line has been that all that is unlikely to repeat itself from one year to the next. Regression is not a kicker's friend.

Trust me on this one, there is no rush to grab a kicker (unless you play in a start two kicker league with 16-teams and then it gets a bit dicey with the slop available after about 25 kickers). DO NOT be the one that drafts the first kicker (unless it's the second to last round and there may be 20 picks until your last pick).

 

[Rovers]

I agree, with a caveat. My local rewards long field goals WAY too much. (6 points for 50+). 5 points for 40-49 yarders. In that league, it makes some sense to go for a PK that has a big leg. In my more reasonable on-line leagues, I agree completely.

 

[Marc Levin]

Mike Hermann would be very proud of you, David.

 

[Memphis Foundry]

Chip Lohmiller was a bona-fide stud back in the day. He was a big reason I won my local league (a distance scoring league) in 1991.

 

[Mike Herman]

What David said.

Rackers and Feely both hit the 140 point benchmark last year.

Feely has now been the fortunate recipient of 40+ field goal attempts twice in his career. Most kickers never get that many attempts in a year at any point in their career. The odds of it happening again are very slim. Over the past 15 years, teams scoring over 140 kicking points dropped an average of 41 points the following year (minimum 24, maximum 74). Feely is in fact already a component of the drop-off statistic. In 2002 he was the top scoring kicker in the NFL. He dropped to 26th the following year.

link

Just like Mike Vanderjagt in 2004 and Adam Vinatieri last year, Rackers will be one of the first kickers to go in many fantasy drafts in 2006, based on his career year last year. That might be a fantasy mistake. From a value perspective, that means he’ll go earlier than kickers typically warrant consideration. It is also very difficult to put together consecutive high scoring seasons. It would be natural to think that a very good kicker remaining on the same team could easily repeat that, but history suggests otherwise. Since 1991, teams kicking over 140 points in a given year average only 108 points the following year (high of 124, low of 91).

link

 

[ozman]

Unless leagues start going to "start 2 K" formats, drafting a kicker early should never, ever, never be something that comes into play...

Why?

1. There are 32 kickers.

2. Of these 32, maybe 5-10(at worst) will lose their job.

3. Even though week to week scoring varies widely, of the 32 kickers (minus the 5-10 who have poor job security) there are always at least 16 that are "more than capable" of scoring 120 point in any given year.

4. Even if you are in a 16 team leauge, you can wait until 15 are taken and then grab one.

5. So there is NO good reason to draft a kicker early.

These points are, unfortunately, without any statistical data to back them up...but in this case, I welcome those who would argue against these generalities...

 

[Sweetness_34]

Watch out for David Akers to be really good this year.....wait and pick him later. He has a great leg still, and he is on a team that will get into the redzone but have lots of trouble scoring points without TO or a legit RB to pound it in

 

[Post Corner]

Yeah, typically people will jump on kickers who are new to fantasy football (assuming only 1 kicker required for the start), but as you play more, you realize the fallacy in that.

Nice work David. Enjoyed reading your stuff. This is a nice article that helps hammer that last nail in the kicker coffin:

http://www.footballdocs.com/fantasy_kicker_mistake.html

 

[Tick]

I never like this approach... the same argument gets used every offseason about RB rankings. 5/10 won't repeat, so you're stupid for putting 8/10 of last year's guys in the top 10, right? No, they're the guys with the best chance to repeat.

Rackers has good accuracy, good range, and is on a Denny Green team that added Edge in the offseason. Why won't he repeat? I mean a concrete reason. And who's going to take his place as the top PK scorer?

It's easy to say that the top guy won't repeat. You could say every year that last year's top guy at each position won't repeat, and you'd be right almost all the time. It doesn't mean anything, though, unless you know how to pick next year's top guy.

So, I wait and pick a PK after about 10 are gone. Which one of the guys left over is going to be #1 this year? Longwell? Scobee? Hanson?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

This time last year, a kicker thread was started by someone who's name escapes me.

I threw out my idea of picking teams who project to be good in passing offense and poor in rushing offense. The idea being that a good passing team should be able to get down the field but not be able to punch it in once the size of the field to defend shrinks.

We never did get very far with that analysis wise, but when you think of unbalanced passing vs rushing teams from 2005, I can't think of anyone better than Arizona.

 

[bueno]

I never like this approach... the same argument gets used every offseason about RB rankings. 5/10 won't repeat, so you're stupid for putting 8/10 of last year's guys in the top 10, right? No, they're the guys with the best chance to repeat.

Rackers has good accuracy, good range, and is on a Denny Green team that added Edge in the offseason. Why won't he repeat? I mean a concrete reason. And who's going to take his place as the top PK scorer?

It's easy to say that the top guy won't repeat. You could say every year that last year's top guy at each position won't repeat, and you'd be right almost all the time. It doesn't mean anything, though, unless you know how to pick next year's top guy.

So, I wait and pick a PK after about 10 are gone. Which one of the guys left over is going to be #1 this year? Longwell? Scobee? Hanson?

Bottom line is that by the time the top 10 kickers are gone, it is a real crap shoot. So the question is, do you take a guy with a rpoven track record even though regression isn't his friend, or do you roll the dice, ake a kicker in your last round and hope you can spot this year's stud early? David your logic has a major flaw: everyone knows that when Manning scores 49 TDs in one year, he sure isn't going to match that rate the next year. Does that mean you don't draft Manning?

There are maybe five kickers that are consistent year to year. Draft one of them or take your chances.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I never like this approach... the same argument gets used every offseason about RB rankings. 5/10 won't repeat, so you're stupid for putting 8/10 of last year's guys in the top 10, right? No, they're the guys with the best chance to repeat.

Rackers has good accuracy, good range, and is on a Denny Green team that added Edge in the offseason. Why won't he repeat? I mean a concrete reason. And who's going to take his place as the top PK scorer?

It's easy to say that the top guy won't repeat. You could say every year that last year's top guy at each position won't repeat, and you'd be right almost all the time. It doesn't mean anything, though, unless you know how to pick next year's top guy.

So, I wait and pick a PK after about 10 are gone. Which one of the guys left over is going to be #1 this year? Longwell? Scobee? Hanson?

Tick,

Really have to disagree on this one.

Rackers had all the right things going last year (including kicking in a game in Mexico City last year, higher than Denver).

Check this out:

Rackers Stats

For his career:

KICKINGYear Team G 1-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Tot Lg Blk Pct XP XPG Pct2000 Cincinnati Bengals 16 0-0 5-5 5-9 2-7 0-0 12-21 45 2 57.1 21-21 21 100.02001 Cincinnati Bengals 16 0-0 4-6 8-11 4-9 1-2 17-28 52 0 60.7 23-24 23 95.82002 Cincinnati Bengals 16 2-2 5-5 3-3 3-5 2-3 15-18 54 0 83.3 30-32 30 93.82003 Arizona Cardinals 7 0-0 5-5 1-4 3-3 0-0 9-12 49 0 75.0 8-8 8 100.02004 Arizona Cardinals 16 0-0 6-6 5-7 6-7 5-9 22-29 55 0 75.9 28-28 28 100.02005 Arizona Cardinals 15 0-0 11-11 10-10 13-14 6-7 40-42 54 0 95.2 20-20 20 100.0TOTAL 86 2-2 36-38 32-44 31-45 14-21 115-150 55 2 76.7 130-133 130 97.7Rackers had never surpassed 85% FG accuracy before last season, and he never had 30 FG attempts, before last year. So I write off 2005 as a fluke with 95% and 42 attempts.He's always had a big leg, but accuracy? Not there. Add in Edge for goal line punching and maybe a more potent offense, and there's ample room for decline.

So I hope that is the reason(s) you were looking for as to why he won't be the #1 PK this year.

I can see a path to the same # of FG tries, but I can't pencil him in for 90+% accuracy.

Who will be the #1? How about a team that might struggle in the red zone but can move the ball, a kicker with a big leg, a coach that has the confidence in his kicker to let him exercise it from that distance, and accuracy over the past several years (80%+).

I'll leave the data mining for others, but some names that come to mind:

Vanderjagt

Graham

Akers

Elam

in no particular order.

Dome kickers / warm weather kickers are also good candidates.

Kasay

Carney

Longwell

I'm not saying any of the above will be a guaranteed better choice than Rackers, but there are a lot of reasons NOT to have Rackers as the #1 PK on your draft board.

 

[David Yudkin]

I never like this approach... the same argument gets used every offseason about RB rankings. 5/10 won't repeat, so you're stupid for putting 8/10 of last year's guys in the top 10, right? No, they're the guys with the best chance to repeat.

Rackers has good accuracy, good range, and is on a Denny Green team that added Edge in the offseason. Why won't he repeat? I mean a concrete reason. And who's going to take his place as the top PK scorer?

It's easy to say that the top guy won't repeat. You could say every year that last year's top guy at each position won't repeat, and you'd be right almost all the time. It doesn't mean anything, though, unless you know how to pick next year's top guy.

So, I wait and pick a PK after about 10 are gone. Which one of the guys left over is going to be #1 this year? Longwell? Scobee? Hanson?

You COMPLETELY added things which I DID NOT put down. I never said that the top kicker from year to year would not do well--ONLY THOSE WITH EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH POINT TOTALS. Nor did I say that a certain percentage of the Top 10 PK would not repeat, or a certain percentage would fall out of the Top 10.The difference between kicker and other positions is that kickers CANNOT give themselves extra chances. It's not like they can ask for the ball. They don't get 350 touches. They get to kick when the game calls for it. They are at the beck and call of many other GAME FACTORS which do not always present themselves.

As for bueno's assertion that there are a handful of kickers that are more reliable than others, maybe that's true, but who are they?

Elam has been pretty consistent (115, 129, 120, 120, 124 the past 5 year).

Wilkins has been all over the map (117, 89, 163, 94, 127)

Vanderjagt has been a decent option (121, 119, 157, 103, 125)

Vinatieri had one really strong year (100, 141, 112, 117, 113)

Who else do people consider a sure thing at kicker?

 

[David Yudkin]

David your logic has a major flaw: everyone knows that when Manning scores 49 TDs in one year, he sure isn't going to match that rate the next year. Does that mean you don't draft Manning?

The difference in Manning is that the stats he would put up in Year X + 1 are still top tier, while the kickers I referenced (130+ points) fell off to a point where they were not only not the top at their position, but many times they were not worthy of even being a fantasy starter in Year X + 1.If Manning cut his TD total in half from 49 to 25, he still would have been a Top 5 QB. Take one of the top kickers and cut the number of made field goals in half and he would be almost useless for fantasy purposes.Slash Rackers FG total from last year in half and he'd be a nobody again. I'm not suggesting that that will happen, but the likelihood of the planets aligning for him in the right manner again to be able to repeat last year's totals are remote in my book.

 

[The Jerk]

I never like this approach... the same argument gets used every offseason about RB rankings.  5/10 won't repeat, so you're stupid for putting 8/10 of last year's guys in the top 10, right?  No, they're the guys with the best chance to repeat.

Rackers has good accuracy, good range, and is on a Denny Green team that added Edge in the offseason.  Why won't he repeat?  I mean a concrete reason.  And who's going to take his place as the top PK scorer?

It's easy to say that the top guy won't repeat.  You could say every year that last year's top guy at each position won't repeat, and you'd be right almost all the time.  It doesn't mean anything, though, unless you know how to pick next year's top guy.

So, I wait and pick a PK after about 10 are gone.  Which one of the guys left over is going to be #1 this year?  Longwell?  Scobee?  Hanson?

Tick,Really have to disagree on this one.

Rackers had all the right things going last year (including kicking in a game in Mexico City last year, higher than Denver).

Check this out:

Rackers Stats

For his career:

KICKINGYear  Team               G  1-19  20-29 30-39 40-49  50+   Tot   Lg  Blk  Pct   XP  XPG   Pct2000 Cincinnati Bengals 16   0-0   5-5   5-9   2-7   0-0  12-21  45   2  57.1  21-21 21  100.02001 Cincinnati Bengals 16   0-0   4-6   8-11  4-9   1-2  17-28  52   0  60.7  23-24 23   95.82002 Cincinnati Bengals 16   2-2   5-5   3-3   3-5   2-3  15-18  54   0  83.3  30-32 30   93.82003 Arizona Cardinals   7   0-0   5-5   1-4   3-3   0-0   9-12  49   0  75.0   8-8   8  100.02004 Arizona Cardinals  16   0-0   6-6   5-7   6-7   5-9  22-29  55   0  75.9  28-28 28  100.02005 Arizona Cardinals  15   0-0  11-11 10-10 13-14  6-7  40-42  54   0  95.2  20-20 20  100.0TOTAL                   86   2-2  36-38 32-44 31-45 14-21 115-150 55  2  76.7 130-133 130 97.7Rackers had never surpassed 85% FG accuracy before last season, and he never had 30 FG attempts, before last year. So I write off 2005 as a fluke with 95% and 42 attempts.He's always had a big leg, but accuracy? Not there. Add in Edge for goal line punching and maybe a more potent offense, and there's ample room for decline.

So I hope that is the reason(s) you were looking for as to why he won't be the #1 PK this year.

I can see a path to the same # of FG tries, but I can't pencil him in for 90+% accuracy.

Who will be the #1? How about a team that might struggle in the red zone but can move the ball, a kicker with a big leg, a coach that has the confidence in his kicker to let him exercise it from that distance, and accuracy over the past several years (80%+).

I'll leave the data mining for others, but some names that come to mind:

Vanderjagt

Graham

Akers

Elam

in no particular order.

Dome kickers / warm weather kickers are also good candidates.

Kasay

Carney

Longwell

I'm not saying any of the above will be a guaranteed better choice than Rackers, but there are a lot of reasons NOT to have Rackers as the #1 PK on your draft board.

Jeff,I'll give you that it is highly unlikely that Rackers will have nearly three FGA per game next season as he did in 2005. And 95% accuracy on 42 attempts with exactly half at least 40 yards cannot be expected. Yet it's pretty foolish to ignore the fact that Rackers has made 85% of his kicks in the past four seasons (86 of 101 in 54 games). I wouldn't call that level of accuracy a fluke.

I do expect Rackers to come back to the pack this season, but he can lose 20% of his ppg and still be a top 6 kicker. On a much less significant level (given he's a kicker), he's like Shaun Alexander. In other words, many of the same ingredients from his career year remain in place for 2006.

I expect he will be drafted too early in almost every league. Yet I don't think he should be banished from your list entirely. He should at least be mentioned there in the dome/warm weather column. In fact, Arizona now has both!

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I'll give you a general on Rackers' accuracy, aggregate over the past four years.

He also has the warm weather and dome as you mentioned - although it isn't a sealed dome, so who knows if there will be any wind tunnel effects - so he does merit consideration for a Top 10 K.

I believe I was answering Tick's question (in 2 parts) as to why won't Rackers be #1 (give me reasons) and who will be?

As such, Rackers was left off the "who will be #1 otherwise list".

I think that finding kickers with 80+% accuracy and a big leg will get you far, but only so far. You have to predict which ones will have 30-35+ attempts at FGs to get a top PK.

 

[jevy]

Why does anyone keep calling Rackers the #1 kicker? He finished second to Feely last year.

 

[coolnerd]

I'll give you a general on Rackers' accuracy, aggregate over the past four years.

He also has the warm weather and dome as you mentioned - although it isn't a sealed dome, so who knows if there will be any wind tunnel effects - so he does merit consideration for a Top 10 K.

I believe I was answering Tick's question (in 2 parts) as to why won't Rackers be #1 (give me reasons) and who will be?

As such, Rackers was left off the "who will be #1 otherwise list".

I think that finding kickers with 80+% accuracy and a big leg will get you far, but only so far. You have to predict which ones will have 30-35+ attempts at FGs to get a top PK.

And to this you really need to figure out which offenses will either have trouble scoring in the redzone and/or have an abudance of attempts because of a dynamic offense or high turnover defense. As long as the kicker has reasonable (80% or above) accuracy, your attentioned should be turned to the team in your attempts to determine the proper kicker.

 

[The Jerk]

Why does anyone keep calling Rackers the #1 kicker? He finished second to Feely last year.

According to FBG stats, Feely had 148 pts in 16 games for 9.25 ppg.Rackers had 140 pts in 15 games for 9.33 ppg.

So technically, in ppg Rackers was #1.

More importantly, many leagues feature bonus points for longer kicks.

Rackers made 13 FGs from 40-49 yards and 6 FGs of 50+ yards.

Feely made 8 FGs from 40-49 yards and 3 FGs of 50+ yards.

 

[jevy]

Why does anyone keep calling Rackers the #1 kicker? He finished second to Feely last year.

According to FBG stats, Feely had 148 pts in 16 games for 9.25 ppg.Rackers had 140 pts in 15 games for 9.33 ppg.

So technically, in ppg Rackers was #1.

More importantly, many leagues feature bonus points for longer kicks.

Rackers made 13 FGs from 40-49 yards and 6 FGs of 50+ yards.

Feely made 8 FGs from 40-49 yards and 3 FGs of 50+ yards.

True, yet all of the historic numbers only consider FG's as 3 points, and there's no talk of ppg in any comparisons listed above.

 

[The Jerk]

Why does anyone keep calling Rackers the #1 kicker? He finished second to Feely last year.

According to FBG stats, Feely had 148 pts in 16 games for 9.25 ppg.Rackers had 140 pts in 15 games for 9.33 ppg.

So technically, in ppg Rackers was #1.

More importantly, many leagues feature bonus points for longer kicks.

Rackers made 13 FGs from 40-49 yards and 6 FGs of 50+ yards.

Feely made 8 FGs from 40-49 yards and 3 FGs of 50+ yards.

True, yet all of the historic numbers only consider FG's as 3 points, and there's no talk of ppg in any comparisons listed above.

You asked. I answered. And my post defiinitely includes ppg. You don't have to like the reasoning, but Rackers is referred to as the #1 kicker from last year due to a higher ppg and/or distance scoring bonuses.

 

[Reagan]

What David said.

Rackers and Feely both hit the 140 point benchmark last year.

Feely has now been the fortunate recipient of 40+ field goal attempts twice in his career. Most kickers never get that many attempts in a year at any point in their career. The odds of it happening again are very slim. Over the past 15 years, teams scoring over 140 kicking points dropped an average of 41 points the following year (minimum 24, maximum 74). Feely is in fact already a component of the drop-off statistic. In 2002 he was the top scoring kicker in the NFL. He dropped to 26th the following year.

link

Just like Mike Vanderjagt in 2004 and Adam Vinatieri last year, Rackers will be one of the first kickers to go in many fantasy drafts in 2006, based on his career year last year. That might be a fantasy mistake. From a value perspective, that means he’ll go earlier than kickers typically warrant consideration. It is also very difficult to put together consecutive high scoring seasons. It would be natural to think that a very good kicker remaining on the same team could easily repeat that, but history suggests otherwise. Since 1991, teams kicking over 140 points in a given year average only 108 points the following year (high of 124, low of 91).

link

I remember a week last year when I had about a 18 pt advantage on my opponent heading into either the Sunday night game of MNF and the last player to go was my opponent's kicker, Neil Rackers. I felt pretty confident I was going to win until Rackers goes offer for like 5 or 6 field goals and several extra points to beat my by 1 pt that week. Doesn't detract from your point, but considering the topic of kickers, it brought up a bad memory.

 

[joffer]

this year, I like Akers, Longwell, Mare, Brown, Kasay, and Scobee as guys that are usually not being drafted in the first 8 PKs.

 

[Bri]

So I looked up how well high scroing kickers did the following year to see how off-base it was in jumping on LAST year's best kickers.

I set the bar at 130 NFL points scored. With kicker scoring varying from year to year for fantasy purposes, it stands to reason that a kicker with a lot of "real" points would also have a lot of fantasy points.

Since the season expanded to 16-games in the late 70s, there have been 37 kickers that scored 130 points in a season. 36 of them did not do so again the following year. The only one that was able to meet that threshold in back to back seasons was Chip Lohmiller for Washington inn 1990 & 1991. Those 37 kickers averaged 139 points the first season but 107 points the next—a 23% drop-off.

Great research, very interesting. Had to look some up. Upon doing so, I think your threshhold is too high. If you just went with consistency or predictability you'd be amazed. Well I don't know, you've been around, the first time anyone notices it, it's amazing IMO.Before a game, can you predict how many FGs a K will kick? There's a good chance if the games close he'll try a game winner and there's an even better chance he'll kick an XP after a TD but all in all it's pretty hard to predict how much a K will score each week right? Then how many FGs vs how many XPs? Pretty hard to predict again right?

Take a look at Elam, Vinatieri, Longwell and some others that you'd guess are fairly consistent but just fairly consistent. It's a crazy but true stat. Despite all the unpredictability, Elam has matched the exact number of points 119 one year, 119 the next. Exact match despite that unpredictability assumed above? Did it again with 120 then 120. 124 and then 127. Just one more FG is pretty darn close. I think Longwell and Vinatieri are pretty close too year to year.

It's something to see and IMO it disproves almost every theory you'd think about FF predictability and is just

BTW IIRC Greg Kellogg had this at komments.com years ago. Just trying to give credit where it's due. I believe Mike Herman had a similar article years later but maybe it was DD.

Q for you David,

IIRC Wilkins is one guy that fluctuates from great to eh most years. Vandy maybe from great to real good. How would you apply this to your draft then? Settle for the predictability of the 3 above(well 2 since Adam switched teams) and target them? Plan an every other year thing with Wilkins and Vandy?

 

[Bri]

What David said.

Rackers and Feely both hit the 140 point benchmark last year.

Feely has now been the fortunate recipient of 40+ field goal attempts twice in his career. Most kickers never get that many attempts in a year at any point in their career. The odds of it happening again are very slim. Over the past 15 years, teams scoring over 140 kicking points dropped an average of 41 points the following year (minimum 24, maximum 74). Feely is in fact already a component of the drop-off statistic. In 2002 he was the top scoring kicker in the NFL. He dropped to 26th the following year.

link

Just like Mike Vanderjagt in 2004 and Adam Vinatieri last year, Rackers will be one of the first kickers to go in many fantasy drafts in 2006, based on his career year last year. That might be a fantasy mistake. From a value perspective, that means he’ll go earlier than kickers typically warrant consideration. It is also very difficult to put together consecutive high scoring seasons. It would be natural to think that a very good kicker remaining on the same team could easily repeat that, but history suggests otherwise. Since 1991, teams kicking over 140 points in a given year average only 108 points the following year (high of 124, low of 91).

link

I remember a week last year when I had about a 18 pt advantage on my opponent heading into either the Sunday night game of MNF and the last player to go was my opponent's kicker, Neil Rackers. I felt pretty confident I was going to win until Rackers goes offer for like 5 or 6 field goals and several extra points to beat my by 1 pt that week. Doesn't detract from your point, but considering the topic of kickers, it brought up a bad memory.

Edge will dramatically affect Rackers #s IMO. I think he can get in the endzone or pose such a threat that the WRs+ big Leonard Pope can get open more easily.

 

[Bri]

I'll give you a general on Rackers' accuracy, aggregate over the past four years.

He also has the warm weather and dome as you mentioned - although it isn't a sealed dome, so who knows if there will be any wind tunnel effects - so he does merit consideration for a Top 10 K.

I believe I was answering Tick's question (in 2 parts) as to why won't Rackers be #1 (give me reasons) and who will be?

As such, Rackers was left off the "who will be #1 otherwise list".

I think that finding kickers with 80+% accuracy and a big leg will get you far, but only so far. You have to predict which ones will have 30-35+ attempts at FGs to get a top PK.

accuracy? How do you apply that to your predictions/projections? Got any examples?

 

[Bri]

Unless leagues start going to "start 2 K" formats, drafting a kicker early should never, ever, never be something that comes into play...

Why?

1. There are 32 kickers.

2. Of these 32, maybe 5-10(at worst) will lose their job.

3. Even though week to week scoring varies widely, of the 32 kickers (minus the 5-10 who have poor job security) there are always at least 16 that are "more than capable" of scoring 120 point in any given year.

4. Even if you are in a 16 team leauge, you can wait until 15 are taken and then grab one.

5. So there is NO good reason to draft a kicker early.

These points are, unfortunately, without any statistical data to back them up...but in this case, I welcome those who would argue against these generalities...

This isn't so true. Alot of people roll with a "pick a K in the last round" theory so you can skip your #s above waiting for 15 to be drafted or whatever...can't wait anymore at that point. Knowing a bunch of guys in your league will take a K in the last round, you can pick one in the 2nd to last round and have a good choice while in the last round it's whomever falls to you. I'd rather the choice. With the Ks going so often at this point, whatever other player you were gonna take is probably gonna be there in the last round too.

 

[ExaltedOne]

I agree for the most part that you can get decent kickers late and that the top guys from last year normally won't repeat. However, this year in redrafts I have been gobbling up Vinatieri in about the 10th round before anyone else takes kickers. My reasoning? He's probably the best outdoor kicker in the game and he's moving to a dome which should give him more accuracy. With Edge gone, I think the Colts will have problems getting it into the endzone. In comes the kicker. I could easily see him getting over 150 points ala Vanderjagt 2003.

If you have a feeling that a guy is going to be the best, don't be afraid to grab him. It may seem like a reach, but when you're debating between having the BEST starting kicker or a crappy #5 RB, the choice is easy.

 

[Mike Herman]

As for bueno's assertion that there are a handful of kickers that are more reliable than others, maybe that's true, but who are they?

Elam has been pretty consistent (115, 129, 120, 120, 124 the past 5 year).

Wilkins has been all over the map (117, 89, 163, 94, 127)

Vanderjagt has been a decent option (121, 119, 157, 103, 125)

Vinatieri had one really strong year (100, 141, 112, 117, 113)

Who else do people consider a sure thing at kicker?

As you noted in your original post, the opportunities provided by the team are far more important than the kicker himself. I agree, and prefer to look at the team kicking points.Denver has been top ten in 14 of the last 16 years!

Indianapolis has been top six in 6 of the last 7. Good news for Vinatieri.

Dallas has not made the top ten the last 7 years, and would not have even if they had a far more accurate kicker. Bad news for Vanderjagt.

Baltimore has been top ten in 6 of the last 7 years.

Pittsburgh has been top ten in 4 of the last 5 years.

 

[On The Rocks]

last year i was the last player in my league to draft a kicker. in a 10 team - 25 round - IDP league, i took Shayne Graham in the 20th round. (20.3)

i was the last player to take a kicker and a few guys had already taken two.

 

[David Yudkin]

As for bueno's assertion that there are a handful of kickers that are more reliable than others, maybe that's true, but who are they?

Elam has been pretty consistent (115, 129, 120, 120, 124 the past 5 year).

Wilkins has been all over the map (117, 89, 163, 94, 127)

Vanderjagt has been a decent option (121, 119, 157, 103, 125)

Vinatieri had one really strong year (100, 141, 112, 117, 113)

Who else do people consider a sure thing at kicker?

As you noted in your original post, the opportunities provided by the team are far more important than the kicker himself. I agree, and prefer to look at the team kicking points.Denver has been top ten in 14 of the last 16 years!

Indianapolis has been top six in 6 of the last 7. Good news for Vinatieri.

Dallas has not made the top ten the last 7 years, and would not have even if they had a far more accurate kicker. Bad news for Vanderjagt.

Baltimore has been top ten in 6 of the last 7 years.

Pittsburgh has been top ten in 4 of the last 5 years.

Since I just picked up Vanderjagt, I looked into if this was a Cowboys phenomenum or if Parcells just did not produce great kickers . . .Total points by kickers:

2005 DAL 100

2004 DAL 91

2003 DAL 99

1999 NYJ 108

1998 NYJ 120

1997 NYJ 120

1996 NEP 120

1995 NEP 95

1994 NEP 117

1993 NEP 82

1990 NYG 101

1989 NYG 122

1988 NYG 111

1987 NYG 88

1986 NYG 119

1985 NYG 111

1984 NYG 83

1983 NYG 127

It does not appear that Parcells has ever really gone overboard in producing elite kicker totals, in the years where he stuck with one kicker (Vinatieri, Hall, Haji-Sheikh) and had some confidence they fared pretty well.

If the Tuna feels that he can try field goals and make them with a high degree of certainty that the Cowboys will TRY more kicks this year.

As an aside, I saw that last year with the Patriots, where they sometimes abstained from field goal tries (sometimes from very makeable distances) in favor of "going for it" when it was 4th and fairly long rather than try a 43-yarder (ever if the score indicated a field goal would be beneficial).

(BTW, I picked up Vandy because our league is brutal on deducting points for missed kicks.)

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I'll give you a general on Rackers' accuracy, aggregate over the past four years.

He also has the warm weather and dome as you mentioned - although it isn't a sealed dome, so who knows if there will be any wind tunnel effects - so he does merit consideration for a Top 10 K.

I believe I was answering Tick's question (in 2 parts) as to why won't Rackers be #1 (give me reasons) and who will be?

As such, Rackers was left off the "who will be #1 otherwise list".

I think that finding kickers with 80+% accuracy and a big leg will get you far, but only so far. You have to predict which ones will have 30-35+ attempts at FGs to get a top PK.

accuracy? How do you apply that to your predictions/projections? Got any examples?

Bri,I look at a kicker's accuracy from inside of 40, then from 40+, and I try and take out the 50+ (but I certainly look at it).

I want a kicker who rarely, if ever, misses inside the 40. A lower % accuracy can be expected from beyond 40, and I can't subtract from his accuracy if his kick is a 55-yard prayer at the end of a half that falls short. It might have been dead center - but just short.

A lot of this goes beyond the numbers. Subjectivity does weigh in - so I try and find a K that has attempts over 50 (shows me that he can make it on occasion and the coach thinks so too), and that he makes a reasonable amount from 40+.

Inside the 40 in the NFL should be rock solid for a pro kicker. Sometimes blocks / wind / bad snaps happen, but hopefully over time that gets smoothed out.

However, when a K gets maybe 30-35 tries all season, 1 block and 1 bad snap take away 5-6% of this accuracy.

So - if you're looking for hard and fast rules or concrete examples, sorry. None here. What I look for as I watch the games is for what a team does if they have 4th down and long at the opponent's 32. 49-yard attempt? Punt? Go for it?

That tells me a lot about that kicker. Knowing that every attempt matters, I want the team that tries the most from 40+.

 

[David Yudkin]

I want the team that tries the most from 40+.

Team field goal attempts of 40+ yards in 2005:ARI 21CAR, DEN 17STL 16NYG, BAL, MIN, SEA, OAK 15PHI 14BUF, SFO, JAC 13TEN, NOS, NYJ 12KC, PIT, SD, DET, TB 14CIN, CHI, GBP 10IND 9MIA, WAS, DAL, HOU, NEP 8ATL 6CLE 5(With some guys moving from team to team, the totals may be slightly off, but they should be close.)

 

[MLBrandow]

Since the season expanded to 16-games in the late 70s, there have been 37 kickers that scored 130 points in a season.  36 of them did not do so again the following year.  The only one that was able to meet that threshold in back to back seasons was Chip Lohmiller for Washington inn 1990 & 1991.  Those 37 kickers averaged 139 points the first season but 107 points the next—a 23% drop-off. 

By comparison, 107 points ranked as the #15 kicker in NFL scoring last year--a sizeable difference from being a top scorer.  Taking a guy early and not even getting fantasy starter production is not worth much at all.

I am not sure this is a closed-study by itself.The reason kickers are so successful is because their offenses can move well but can't get TDs in the redzone, at least I would think.

Do you have a list of said FF kickers? Would be great to compare it to a list of redzone percentage change from one season to the next.

I think the best predicter would be a correlation study between total offense and red zone efficiency.

Then, one could predict those for teams this upcoming year to get a winning kicker.

For me, Rackers comes to mind again in AZ, with a QB who doesn't throw TDs and a RB who doesn't rush for them.

Akers is a great steal late, as kickers only have about a one year memory in people's minds, and people forget that Akers' last two years were 41 & 42FGs, while last year he was hurt and losing attempts to linebackers.

 

[David Yudkin]

Akers' last two years were 41 & 42FGs, while last year he was hurt and losing attempts to linebackers.

Akers had 41 and 42 PAT, not FG.

 

[David Yudkin]

Do you have a list of said FF kickers? Would be great to compare it to a list of redzone percentage change from one season to the next.

05 Feely 14805 Rackers 14005 Graham 13104 Vinatieri 141/10003 Wilkins 163/8903 Vanderjagt 157/11903 Stover 134/11702 Feely 138/8902 Akers 133/11402 Carney 130/10200 Stover 135/11500 Longwell 131/10499 Mare 145/11799 Peterson 134/7099 Hollis 130/10599 Vanderjagt 145/12198 Anderson 164/10398 Christie 140/10898 Del Greco 136/10697 Hollis 134/10896 Del Greco 131/11396 Casay 145/9196 Blanchard 135/11796 Wilkins 130/10795 Johnson 141/10695 Elam 132/10995 Hanson 132/7294 Carney 135/9594 Reveiz 132/12293 Jaeger 132/9793 Hanson 130/9391 Lohmiller 149/12090 Lohmiller 130/14990 Lowery 139/11089 Cofer 136/11186 Franklin 140/12085 Butler 144/12085 Anderson 139/9584 Wersching 131/9183 Moseley 161/120

 

[Musesboy]

There is no hard and fast rule to follow when predicting kicker success. There are simply too many variables. Looking at the scoring system is useful. Do kickers get rewarded for longer kicks? Are there penalties for missed kicks? But trying to predict how many times a team will stall on a drive but get close enough for a field goal try is extremely difficult.

I would apply the scoring rules and estimate how many total points I expect a team to score. It seems that something as simple as looking at total points scored will unearth most of the valuable kickers.

Taking last year as an example. FGs 1-39 yards 3 pts, 40-49 4pts, 50+ 6 points, no penalty for misses and 1 pt per extra point...

This is where the teams finished in total points, and how their kickers ranked in the final standings:

1 - Seahawks 452 points, Brown 8th

2 - Colts 439 points, Vanderjagt 9th

3 - Giants 422 points, Feely 2nd

4 - Bengals 421 points, Graham 4th

5 - Chargers 418 points, Kaeding 14th

6 - Chiefs 403 points, Tynes 6th

7 - Broncos 395 points, Elam 10th

8 - Panthers 391 points, Kasay 5th

9 - Steelers 389 points, Reed 12th

10 - Patriots 379 points, Vinatieri 25th

11 - Rams 363 points, Wilkins 3rd

12 - Jaguars 361 points, Scobee 15th

Rackers and Lindell were the only two to make the top 10 without playing on a team that ranked in the top 11 in total points.

I know that it's simple, and it's only looking at one year, but I find it a pretty good guide.

 

[Mike Herman]

There is no hard and fast rule to follow when predicting kicker success. There are simply too many variables. Looking at the scoring system is useful. Do kickers get rewarded for longer kicks? Are there penalties for missed kicks? But trying to predict how many times a team will stall on a drive but get close enough for a field goal try is extremely difficult.

I would apply the scoring rules and estimate how many total points I expect a team to score. It seems that something as simple as looking at total points scored will unearth most of the valuable kickers.

Taking last year as an example. FGs 1-39 yards 3 pts, 40-49 4pts, 50+ 6 points, no penalty for misses and 1 pt per extra point...

This is where the teams finished in total points, and how their kickers ranked in the final standings:

1 - Seahawks 452 points, Brown 8th

2 - Colts 439 points, Vanderjagt 9th

3 - Giants 422 points, Feely 2nd

4 - Bengals 421 points, Graham 4th

5 - Chargers 418 points, Kaeding 14th

6 - Chiefs 403 points, Tynes 6th

7 - Broncos 395 points, Elam 10th

8 - Panthers 391 points, Kasay 5th

9 - Steelers 389 points, Reed 12th

10 - Patriots 379 points, Vinatieri 25th

11 - Rams 363 points, Wilkins 3rd

12 - Jaguars 361 points, Scobee 15th

Rackers and Lindell were the only two to make the top 10 without playing on a team that ranked in the top 11 in total points.

I know that's is simple, and it's only looking at one year, but I find it a pretty good guide.

Yep... there is a strong statistical correlation between kicker scoring and total offensive scoring. Looking at all top five kickers going back to 1990, here's where their offenses ranked in scoring:1-5 39%

6-10 37%

11-15 16%

16-20 5%

21-25 3%

26-32 0%

 

[David Yudkin]

There is no hard and fast rule to follow when predicting kicker success. There are simply too many variables. Looking at the scoring system is useful. Do kickers get rewarded for longer kicks? Are there penalties for missed kicks? But trying to predict how many times a team will stall on a drive but get close enough for a field goal try is extremely difficult.

I would apply the scoring rules and estimate how many total points I expect a team to score. It seems that something as simple as looking at total points scored will unearth most of the valuable kickers.

Taking last year as an example. FGs 1-39 yards 3 pts, 40-49 4pts, 50+ 6 points, no penalty for misses and 1 pt per extra point...

This is where the teams finished in total points, and how their kickers ranked in the final standings:

1 - Seahawks 452 points, Brown 8th

2 - Colts 439 points, Vanderjagt 9th

3 - Giants 422 points, Feely 2nd

4 - Bengals 421 points, Graham 4th

5 - Chargers 418 points, Kaeding 14th

6 - Chiefs 403 points, Tynes 6th

7 - Broncos 395 points, Elam 10th

8 - Panthers 391 points, Kasay 5th

9 - Steelers 389 points, Reed 12th

10 - Patriots 379 points, Vinatieri 25th

11 - Rams 363 points, Wilkins 3rd

12 - Jaguars 361 points, Scobee 15th

Rackers and Lindell were the only two to make the top 10 without playing on a team that ranked in the top 11 in total points.

I know that's is simple, and it's only looking at one year, but I find it a pretty good guide.

Yep... there is a strong statistical correlation between kicker scoring and total offensive scoring. Looking at all top five kickers going back to 1990, here's where their offenses ranked in scoring:1-5 39%

6-10 37%

11-15 16%

16-20 5%

21-25 3%

26-32 0%

But where did the offenses rank the year BEFORE they were Top 5? In 2004, NYG ranked 17, ARI ranked 26, and STL ranked 19th but all had Top 5 fantasy kickers in 2005. Predicting which teams will rank in the top ten of offenses for the upcoming year is not an easy task.

 

[Musesboy]

But where did the offenses rank the year BEFORE they were Top 5?

In 2004, NYG ranked 17, ARI ranked 26, and STL ranked 19th but all had Top 5 fantasy kickers in 2005. Predicting which teams will rank in the top ten of offenses for the upcoming year is not an easy task.

I totally agree with you. It's not easy to predict the top ten in scoring. But I think I have a better chance of doing that compared to trying to judge the multiple considerations I mentioned. It's a simple strategy and far from perfect, but I do think it gives me a better chance. If the scoring favors accuracy or length, I would take that into account too.

 

[Musesboy]

Yep... there is a strong statistical correlation between kicker scoring and total offensive scoring. Looking at all top five kickers going back to 1990, here's where their offenses ranked in scoring:

1-5 39%

6-10 37%

11-15 16%

16-20 5%

21-25 3%

26-32 0%

Great info, thanks

 

[Mike Herman]

There is no hard and fast rule to follow when predicting kicker success. There are simply too many variables. Looking at the scoring system is useful. Do kickers get rewarded for longer kicks? Are there penalties for missed kicks? But trying to predict how many times a team will stall on a drive but get close enough for a field goal try is extremely difficult.

I would apply the scoring rules and estimate how many total points I expect a team to score. It seems that something as simple as looking at total points scored will unearth most of the valuable kickers.

Taking last year as an example. FGs 1-39 yards 3 pts, 40-49 4pts, 50+ 6 points, no penalty for misses and 1 pt per extra point...

This is where the teams finished in total points, and how their kickers ranked in the final standings:

1 - Seahawks 452 points, Brown 8th

2 - Colts 439 points, Vanderjagt 9th

3 - Giants 422 points, Feely 2nd

4 - Bengals 421 points, Graham 4th

5 - Chargers 418 points, Kaeding 14th

6 - Chiefs 403 points, Tynes 6th

7 - Broncos 395 points, Elam 10th

8 - Panthers 391 points, Kasay 5th

9 - Steelers 389 points, Reed 12th

10 - Patriots 379 points, Vinatieri 25th

11 - Rams 363 points, Wilkins 3rd

12 - Jaguars 361 points, Scobee 15th

Rackers and Lindell were the only two to make the top 10 without playing on a team that ranked in the top 11 in total points.

I know that's is simple, and it's only looking at one year, but I find it a pretty good guide.

Yep... there is a strong statistical correlation between kicker scoring and total offensive scoring. Looking at all top five kickers going back to 1990, here's where their offenses ranked in scoring:1-5 39%

6-10 37%

11-15 16%

16-20 5%

21-25 3%

26-32 0%

But where did the offenses rank the year BEFORE they were Top 5? In 2004, NYG ranked 17, ARI ranked 26, and STL ranked 19th but all had Top 5 fantasy kickers in 2005. Predicting which teams will rank in the top ten of offenses for the upcoming year is not an easy task.

Offenses the year BEFORE1-5 27%

6-10 17%

11-15 19%

16-20 14%

21-25 14%

26-32 8%

 

[David Yudkin]

Offenses the year BEFORE1-5 27%6-10 17%11-15 19%16-20 14%21-25 14%26-32 8%

About what I expected and no easy answer. If we divide the info into:Top 10 44%Middle 10 33%Bottom 10 or worse 22%we get an interesting ratio, but again nothing concrete to hang your hat on.If things hold true to form, we could expect two Top 5 kickers from:SEA, IND, NYG, CIN, SD, KC, DEN, CAR, PIT, and NE.

 

[rascal]

Is there a higher coorelation with top 10 teams with a more accurate kicker? Logic would say yes, but I've seen some weird statistics with kickers.

 

[Kit Fisto]

Kickers never repeat.

Draft a rock solid, dependable kicker first (Elam, Akers, Wilkins, Stover, Vinatieri, Vanderjagt, Kasay, Longwell) and go for the trendy kicker last.

Edited to add: This is coming from a dynasty perspective. I own some of those names mentioned above, and I have had the comfort of knowing that K is the one position I haven't had to waste drafts picks on and/or worry about in years.

 

[Tick]

last year i was the last player in my league to draft a kicker. in a 10 team - 25 round - IDP league, i took Shayne Graham in the 20th round. (20.3)

i was the last player to take a kicker and a few guys had already taken two.

That's nice for you, but what made you pick Graham instead of Kaeding?

 

[Tick]

There is no hard and fast rule to follow when predicting kicker success. There are simply too many variables. Looking at the scoring system is useful. Do kickers get rewarded for longer kicks? Are there penalties for missed kicks? But trying to predict how many times a team will stall on a drive but get close enough for a field goal try is extremely difficult.

I would apply the scoring rules and estimate how many total points I expect a team to score. It seems that something as simple as looking at total points scored will unearth most of the valuable kickers.

Taking last year as an example. FGs 1-39 yards 3 pts, 40-49 4pts, 50+ 6 points, no penalty for misses and 1 pt per extra point...

This is where the teams finished in total points, and how their kickers ranked in the final standings:

1 - Seahawks 452 points, Brown 8th

2 - Colts 439 points, Vanderjagt 9th

3 - Giants 422 points, Feely 2nd

4 - Bengals 421 points, Graham 4th

5 - Chargers 418 points, Kaeding 14th

6 - Chiefs 403 points, Tynes 6th

7 - Broncos 395 points, Elam 10th

8 - Panthers 391 points, Kasay 5th

9 - Steelers 389 points, Reed 12th

10 - Patriots 379 points, Vinatieri 25th

11 - Rams 363 points, Wilkins 3rd

12 - Jaguars 361 points, Scobee 15th

Rackers and Lindell were the only two to make the top 10 without playing on a team that ranked in the top 11 in total points.

I know that's is simple, and it's only looking at one year, but I find it a pretty good guide.

Now this I like.

 

[Post Corner]

Bump. You know we are all hungry for training camps to start when a kicker thread is rockin' and rollin'!!