Aaron Rodgers (1 Viewer)

[Macdaddy_2004]

Can anyone explain why he fell so far and why on earth the 49'ers took Alex Smith at #1.

I remember that Rodgers was projected as the 1st overall pick for most of the year and somehow Alex Smith moved ahead of him. In hindsight it seems that Smith is years behind Rodgers at this point in their careers.

 

[Warhogs]

If I recall correctly SF played that game of them trying to decide between Smith and Rodgers right up until draft day and then they went Smith who I think most people had ranked higher than Rodgers and then Rodgers did the big slide. I remember watching him slide and as a Packers fan saying to myself not to waste that pick on Rodgers.

This is certainly one time when I'm glad they took the guy I wanted them to pass on.

 

[Insein]

Smith and rodgers were the only 2 sure fire QB's that year. There werent really any teams that needed a QB other than SF. So Once Sf decided that Smith was their guy (right or wrong), Rodgers was going to fall. Same would have happened if Rodgers went #1. Ultimately, I think it was better for Rodgers to sit for 3 years then get thrown into a bad situation with high expectations. He probably would have looked like Smith too while smith may have succeeded like Rodgers.

All timing and circumstances.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Rodgers I think was the first example of a QB that even though he was ranked highly, fell in the draft due to team priority. Simply put, only severely crappy teams have a QB situation so abhorent that they have to spend a high pick on one.

Since Rodgers, both Brady Quinn and Jimmy Clausen fell victim to this trend. As for the specific Smith/Rodgers debate, it came down to two factors:

1) Rodgers was considered a risk because Jeff Tedford coached QB's had a rep for struggling in the pros (Kyle Boller comes to mind)

2) Alex Smith had just led Utah to a great season out of the spread offense run by Urban Meyer. As a 20 year old kid, it was thought that his smarts would translate well to the pro game in terms of reading defenses and grasping an offensive playbook.

 

[LawFitz]

He probably would have looked like Smith too while smith may have succeeded like Rodgers. All timing and circumstances.

Ha! Smith's noodle arm, small hands and lack of game instincts say otherwise. Ironic that the talk back then was that Rodgers was the product of Tedford's system, when in fact, it turned out that Smith was the product of Meyer's system.These two are no where near in the same class in terms of talent level. Timing a circumstance played a role in their development, but to say it's the reason why Rodgers is elite and Smith is barely average is just flat out wrong.

 

[Insein]

He probably would have looked like Smith too while smith may have succeeded like Rodgers. All timing and circumstances.

Ha! Smith's noodle arm, small hands and lack of game instincts say otherwise. Ironic that the talk back then was that Rodgers was the product of Tedford's system, when in fact, it turned out that Smith was the product of Meyer's system.These two are no where near in the same class in terms of talent level. Timing a circumstance played a role in their development, but to say it's the reason why Rodgers is elite and Smith is barely average is just flat out wrong.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Smith would be elite. I'm saying he would have looked better had he sat for 3 years behind Favre. Conversely, Rodgers would have struggled just like Smith had he been thrown in there with #1 pick expectations.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

why did everyone in the NFL pass on Tom BRady 5 times?

hindsight is 20/20

 

[ShaqAttaq]

alex smith had a really high wunderlich and rodgers had a relatively low score. Smith's representatives were playing that up whenever possible.

 

[Sweet Love]

why did everyone in the NFL pass on Tom BRady 5 times? hindsight is 20/20

I agree, but will be the first to say if Brady ended up in Detroit, he would be more Ken Dorsey than Tom Brady (that is debatable, but my thoughts regardless). As to why Rodgers dropped, it was pretty clear the "loser" between Smith and Rodgers in the SF battle would easily drop out of the top ten...the fact that Rodgers made it out of the top ten, IMO, solidified feelings of the other GMs in the 11-21 mark, that Rodgers may just not be that good. Obviously, the thought train was incorrect, as I believe there were a couple of teams that passed on Rodgers in that location and took a 1-2 round QB the following year. I truly believe GB was ahead of the curve in selecting Rodgers (and honestly, how many times was an all-time great QB immediately followed by a potentially extremely good QB...the poor Bears and even my Jets have never had one let alone two follow so closely...sorry Joe N, just the facts), but I am (and always will be) quick to point out that if the shoe is on the other foot (Rodgers in SF and Smith in GB) Smith would be the one we are talking about and not Rodgers (although I will be just as quick to point out that Rodgers would not suck so bad and we would be saying Smith is a groovy QB2 in FF, not a potential #1 QB overall candidate).

 

[CletiusMaximus]

One thing many people don't realize is the degree to which Rodgers completely changed his game during the 3 years he backed up Favre. He looked terrible in his first two preseasons and Packer fans were (rightfully) very concerned with the pick. Rodgers has changed his delivery completely, changed the way he holds the ball, and bulked up. Its a tribute to him and the Packer coaches. Remember that Favre not only refused to mentor Rodgers in any meaningful sense, he was openly hostile to Rodgers as he was to any backup whom he perceived as a threat.

That said, in hindsight obviously many teams would like to have Rodgers (the Vikings passed on him twice, taking Troy Williamson and Erasmus James and they haven't been settled at the QB position for 10 years), but I agree he likely would not have fared much better than Smith did were he thrown to the wolves in that situation.

 

[Air Stich]

I thought Tampa would take Rodgers at 5 that year. They took Caddy instead and have floundered due to poor QB play ever since.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

One thing many people don't realize is the degree to which Rodgers completely changed his game during the 3 years he backed up Favre. He looked terrible in his first two preseasons and Packer fans were (rightfully) very concerned with the pick. Rodgers has changed his delivery completely, changed the way he holds the ball, and bulked up. Its a tribute to him and the Packer coaches. Remember that Favre not only refused to mentor Rodgers in any meaningful sense, he was openly hostile to Rodgers as he was to any backup whom he perceived as a threat.That said, in hindsight obviously many teams would like to have Rodgers (the Vikings passed on him twice, taking Troy Williamson and Erasmus James and they haven't been settled at the QB position for 10 years), but I agree he likely would not have fared much better than Smith did were he thrown to the wolves in that situation.

Oh, I remember the wailing about Rodgers from GB fans...and that was as late as 2008.It all goes to show that despite the fact that we have reduced our rookie grading system to as near a science as we can, it still isn't a science.That's why I don't get bent about Tebow. As much as we measure things to the nth degree, we're still guessing and won't know whether or not we're right until several years down the road.

 

[latrops]

Alex Smith is very intelligent. He graduated college in 3 years, led his Utah team to an undefeated season, was considered at the time to be more athletic/mobile. He seemed the safe choice.

Aaron Rodgers came from the Jeff Tedford system that produced Trent Dilfer, David Carr, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, and Kyle Boller. All were at a minimum disappointing, if not outright busts. Smith was the first "big name" Urban Meyer qb, so there wasn't anyone to whom he could be directly compared.

At this point, everyone agrees that Rodgers was the better pick. However, through Smith's first 2 seasons, his development was pretty much going according to plan. His first year was not so good, but he showed significant progress in year two under offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Unfortunately, Turner then left for San Diego and the 49ers made a horrible hire at offensive coordinator, promoting Jim Hostler in the interest of maintaining continuity. He was in over his head, Smith got hurt, Hostler got fired, Nolan desperately hired Mike Martz, and everything unraveled from there. Now, in Smith's 6th year in the league he will finally play in the same offense in consecutive seasons. The 49ers may have done the worst job of developing a #1 pick qb in the history of the NFL. I haven't even mentioned the subpar wr talent or poor pass blocking OLine that Smith had to endure. Who knows how things would have worked out had Smith gotten to learn from McCarthy or Turner for a few years, but I imagine things could have gone a bit better for him had the situation with Mike Nolan and the 49ers not been so dysfunctional.

 

[CalBear]

Can anyone explain why he fell so far and why on earth the 49'ers took Alex Smith at #1.I remember that Rodgers was projected as the 1st overall pick for most of the year and somehow Alex Smith moved ahead of him. In hindsight it seems that Smith is years behind Rodgers at this point in their careers.

The second question is easy to answer: The Niners have terrible ownership.

 

[NorrisB]

Because Jeff Tedford QBs had all been colossal busts

 

[CalBear]

Because Jeff Tedford QBs had all been colossal busts

Gee, so were Urban Meyer's. Never discount a player because he had a particular coach in college, or wore a particular uniform. People are individuals. (And in many of the "Tedford QB" cases, they had just one or two years with him.)

 

[huthut]

If the 49ers took Rodgers and GB took Smith today we would be talking about how come the 49ers didn't take Smith first since Rodgers has not lived up to expectations and Smith is a top 10 QB. The 49ers were horrible when Smith was drafted and Rodgers had time to learn behind Farve on a decent team.

 

[sho nuff]

If the 49ers took Rodgers and GB took Smith today we would be talking about how come the 49ers didn't take Smith first since Rodgers has not lived up to expectations and Smith is a top 10 QB. The 49ers were horrible when Smith was drafted and Rodgers had time to learn behind Farve on a decent team.

Possibly.Though, I don't think people also see how hard Rodgers works at things.Studying, working out, working with his WRs...all of it. I think he has gone even over the top to try to succeed after Favre. He simply wants to show he has what it takes.I don't know much about Smith, so I won't question his own work he puts in...but Rodgers is just a beast when it comes to preparing.Hey may have struggled for a bit, I just think he is too good to have failed for long.

 

[JKL]

Because Jeff Tedford QBs had all been colossal busts

Gee, so were Urban Meyer's. Never discount a player because he had a particular coach in college, or wore a particular uniform. People are individuals. (And in many of the "Tedford QB" cases, they had just one or two years with him.)

I wrote about Rodgers and the Tedford thing last year, and the post has links to older articles written at the time of the draft. In retrospect, the Tedford hysteria thing was amusing. Here's a recap of the "Tedford Five", which proved that Aaron Rodgers was a risk:

As it turns out, Tedford only coached David Carr when Carr was a freshman reserve, and then Tedford moved on from Fresno State to become offensive coordinator at Oregon in 1998. A sample size of five is small enough, but there’s no way Carr should have been on the list. Tedford coached Akili Smith for one season as offensive coordinator (his first at Oregon), and Kyle Boller for one season as head coach at Cal. Boller was fairly widely considered a reach based on “potential” at the time of the pick. He wasn’t that good under Tedford in his final season at Cal, but that was an improvement over what he had been. I don’t see how you blame Tedford because Billick fell in love with Boller’s arm strength and turned him into a first round pick. Which leaves the guys that Tedford worked with for multiple seasons—Dilfer, Harrington, and now, Aaron Rodgers. I'm not here to tell you that Trent Dilfer was great or anything, but on the spectrum of first round picks at quarterback, he is a far cry from both the best and the worst--he did stick around for a long time. And as for Joey Harrington, well, he wasn't very good, and he got lots of opportunity to prove it.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

alex smith had a really high wunderlich and rodgers had a relatively low score. Smith's representatives were playing that up whenever possible.

Aaron Rodgers scored a 35 on the Wonderlic. That is a very high score.Alex Smith did score higher - a 40 - but those are both great scores.

 

[mozzy84]

One thing many people don't realize is the degree to which Rodgers completely changed his game during the 3 years he backed up Favre. He looked terrible in his first two preseasons and Packer fans were (rightfully) very concerned with the pick. Rodgers has changed his delivery completely, changed the way he holds the ball, and bulked up. Its a tribute to him and the Packer coaches. Remember that Favre not only refused to mentor Rodgers in any meaningful sense, he was openly hostile to Rodgers as he was to any backup whom he perceived as a threat.

That said, in hindsight obviously many teams would like to have Rodgers (the Vikings passed on him twice, taking Troy Williamson and Erasmus James and they haven't been settled at the QB position for 10 years), but I agree he likely would not have fared much better than Smith did were he thrown to the wolves in that situation.

you really think the vikes were going to take rogers after the year culpepper had? the guy had 39 td's in 04' and one of the best seasons ever, I know packers fans like to throw jabs at the vikings but this is ridiculous.

 

[Nagle2998]

Maybe my memory isn't as good as it once was but I don't remember any highly debated Qb battle for pick one it was always Smith the question at that time was should they trade the pick or draft Smith. A lot of people thought they took Smith because he was the only Qb in the draft that was a top 10 pick and they needed a Qb but again maybe my memory is a little off but that's what I recall.

 

[CalBear]

Maybe my memory isn't as good as it once was but I don't remember any highly debated Qb battle for pick one it was always Smith the question at that time was should they trade the pick or draft Smith. A lot of people thought they took Smith because he was the only Qb in the draft that was a top 10 pick and they needed a Qb but again maybe my memory is a little off but that's what I recall.

There was definitely a Smith-or-Rodgers debate. The Niners seemed to settle on Smith a couple weeks before the draft.(Of course, it was the wrong debate. They should not have taken a QB.)

 

[CletiusMaximus]

One thing many people don't realize is the degree to which Rodgers completely changed his game during the 3 years he backed up Favre. He looked terrible in his first two preseasons and Packer fans were (rightfully) very concerned with the pick. Rodgers has changed his delivery completely, changed the way he holds the ball, and bulked up. Its a tribute to him and the Packer coaches. Remember that Favre not only refused to mentor Rodgers in any meaningful sense, he was openly hostile to Rodgers as he was to any backup whom he perceived as a threat.

That said, in hindsight obviously many teams would like to have Rodgers (the Vikings passed on him twice, taking Troy Williamson and Erasmus James and they haven't been settled at the QB position for 10 years), but I agree he likely would not have fared much better than Smith did were he thrown to the wolves in that situation.

you really think the vikes were going to take rogers after the year culpepper had? the guy had 39 td's in 04' and one of the best seasons ever, I know packers fans like to throw jabs at the vikings but this is ridiculous.

that's not the point I was making - re-read it taking note of the words "in hindsight" and consider an editYou'll often hear that Rodgers "fell into Thompson's lap" and that it was an "obvious" pick (the corollary being, that he shouldn't really get credit as a GM for picking Rodgers). But it took huge balls of steel to use that first pick on a QB under the circumstances (his first big decision as the new GM). No one would have criticized him for passing on Rodgers in favor of bringing in more ammunition for the twilight of Favre's career. He knew full well that Favre would resent the pick and would never forgive him for it, although he probably didn't think Favre would be so juvenile and selfish as to respond by spending the rest of his years actively undermining Thompson and Rodgers. The fact that he stayed committed to Rodgers during those difficult years and has effectively transitioned from a hall of fame QB to an apparent future superstar is truly amazing.

 

[krsone21]

If the 49ers took Rodgers and GB took Smith today we would be talking about how come the 49ers didn't take Smith first since Rodgers has not lived up to expectations and Smith is a top 10 QB. The 49ers were horrible when Smith was drafted and Rodgers had time to learn behind Farve on a decent team.

We don't know this for sure. Smith still could have been average at best even in the best of circumstances and Rodgers could still be a top 5 QB in SF. The point is Rodgers didn't end up in SF and Smith did not end up in GB so there is no way a person can say for sure that if the roles were reveresed that we would end up with the same scenario.

 

[Don Quixote]

Maybe my memory isn't as good as it once was but I don't remember any highly debated Qb battle for pick one it was always Smith the question at that time was should they trade the pick or draft Smith. A lot of people thought they took Smith because he was the only Qb in the draft that was a top 10 pick and they needed a Qb but again maybe my memory is a little off but that's what I recall.

There was definitely a debate between the two. Smith was generally viewed as the better prospect, but media was pumping Rodgers' "local" connection as a reason that he might go #1. And the further speculation was that if Rodgers did not go #1, then he could slide pretty far down the draft board (which he did).

 

[LawFitz]

If the 49ers took Rodgers and GB took Smith today we would be talking about how come the 49ers didn't take Smith first since Rodgers has not lived up to expectations and Smith is a top 10 QB. The 49ers were horrible when Smith was drafted and Rodgers had time to learn behind Farve on a decent team.

Shenanigans!If you get the chance, watch the replay of the packers/browns game from this past weekend on nfl network (they replay all the preseason games).Smith is not physically capable of making the throws Rodgers made in that game.

 

[NinerK]

As for the Niners choosing Smith; it was reported in several papers in SF that Nolan put both through a series of tests which included "now hop on one leg".

No joke, there were quotes of Nolan explaining this. So the story goes that Smith didn't hesitate to hop on one leg. Conversely, Rodgers gave Nolan a "WTF?" look.

According to the quotes and reports back then Nolan was impressed by what he called "Smith willing to do anything coaches tell him to become a pro..." or something like that. ALSO, it was reported that the Niners (read Nolan) DID NOT like Rodgers reaction to the "test" because they wanted a QB who would "get with the program".

Holy Moly the Nolan era was over before it began.

***ETA*** Ok, I did some more research and it was a "jump rope on one leg" test: Jump Rope Test third paragraph up from the end of article.

The article does not mention Rodgers going through the same test, but IIRC he was put through the same test. This article also talks about how the Niners Front Office thought Rodgers came off as having a "big man on campus" attitude. I guess they thought you don't want your QB to have confidence.

 

[Native]

The interesting thing about Rodgers' fall was that he was originally projected to be the top overall pick. Both the scouts and draftniks actually got it right the first time, but then began to over-analyze his game and lowered him in their rankings. The rest of the story fell like dominoes. Once word got out that the teams drafting at the top of the draft that NEEDED QB's would skip over him (like Miami at 2 and Cleveland at 3), other teams later in the round became fearful that there really was something flawed in his game - and they began doubting him as well. It was a snowball effect that lasted all the way until the mid-20's when he CLEARLY represented the best value on the board.

In retrospect, its a pretty fascinating story.

 

[mozzy84]

One thing many people don't realize is the degree to which Rodgers completely changed his game during the 3 years he backed up Favre. He looked terrible in his first two preseasons and Packer fans were (rightfully) very concerned with the pick. Rodgers has changed his delivery completely, changed the way he holds the ball, and bulked up. Its a tribute to him and the Packer coaches. Remember that Favre not only refused to mentor Rodgers in any meaningful sense, he was openly hostile to Rodgers as he was to any backup whom he perceived as a threat.

That said, in hindsight obviously many teams would like to have Rodgers (the Vikings passed on him twice, taking Troy Williamson and Erasmus James and they haven't been settled at the QB position for 10 years), but I agree he likely would not have fared much better than Smith did were he thrown to the wolves in that situation.

you really think the vikes were going to take rogers after the year culpepper had? the guy had 39 td's in 04' and one of the best seasons ever, I know packers fans like to throw jabs at the vikings but this is ridiculous.

that's not the point I was making - re-read it taking note of the words "in hindsight" and consider an editYou'll often hear that Rodgers "fell into Thompson's lap" and that it was an "obvious" pick (the corollary being, that he shouldn't really get credit as a GM for picking Rodgers). But it took huge balls of steel to use that first pick on a QB under the circumstances (his first big decision as the new GM). No one would have criticized him for passing on Rodgers in favor of bringing in more ammunition for the twilight of Favre's career. He knew full well that Favre would resent the pick and would never forgive him for it, although he probably didn't think Favre would be so juvenile and selfish as to respond by spending the rest of his years actively undermining Thompson and Rodgers. The fact that he stayed committed to Rodgers during those difficult years and has effectively transitioned from a hall of fame QB to an apparent future superstar is truly amazing.

no need for an edit, the vikes along with alot of those other teams didnt need a qb and they were set at qb during that draft unlike you stated. And if your going to use "hindsight" because we could do that all day, maybe they should have taken someone to help favre and they could have maybe won another super bowl instead of losing to the eventual champs in a close the nfc title game.

 

[redBourne]

One can only speculate on why they're so different in talent level. Obviously the multitude of coordinators and coaches that ASmith was put through seriously hurt his chances. Obviously the chance to sit behind a legend in Favre for 3 years seriously helped Rodgers.

Would have the roles been identical if the players were reversed? Maybe, maybe not. I've always been a firm believer that had San Fran drafted Brady (they promised him they would have) the Pat's dynasty would have never happened and Brady might just be some career backup.

I also seem to remember that San Fran didn't want EITHER of the QB's, and that it was an incredibly poor QB class that year. They couldn't trade out of the first even though they wanted to and took a chance. Apparently the didn't choose wisely. I often wonder if San Fran didn't choose either QB, how far both would have fallen. Think Green Bay might have taken Alex and Rodgers fell to the second?

 

[brtdud7]

I think there's one thing we can say here: the 2004 season was one of the worst years possible the 49ers could have gotten the #1 overall pick. Basically 2 QBs were available, and as a Cal fan, I don;t get why we NEVER draft players from Cal. They play right in our damn backyard. Rodgers, DeSean, Tony Gonzo, Nnamdi Asomugha, Ryan Longwell even.

Alex Smith's rookie season: A wash IMO. Awful team.

Alex Smith's 2006 season: 16 TDs, 16 INTs.

His RB: Frank Gore

His WRs: Arnaz Battle, Antonio Bryant

His TE: Eric Johnson

His o-line: Terrible as always.

Defense gave up 26 ppg.

16 TDs, 16 INTs, 2890 yards, 75 rating. On THIS team. At TWENTY TWO.

Result: 7-9

Alex Smith's 2007 season:

WRs: Darrell Jackson, Ashley Lelie, Battle, crap etc.

OC: Jim Hostler. enough said.

Forced to play with a separated shoulder. Does awful in those games, as expected. Thanks, Nolan

2008 season: Injured (thanks Nolan)

2009 Season:

Doesn't get first team reps, doesn't have Crabtree.

Almost leads comeback against Texans down 21-0

Plays decent the rest of the season

All these seasons played with one of the worst o-lines in the NFL, leading him to running for his life and throwing the ball away most of the time.

He may not be a great NFL QB, but if he's decent, this team should be ok. And call me a Smith lover if you want. I just feel that he hasn't really gotten a fair chance. Others may say he's terrible, and yes, he hasn't played great. But given his circumstances (and there are A LOT of them), I think he has performed decently.

Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, got drafted by a playoff team and got to sit behind BRETT FAVRE for 3 years. Who did Alex Smith have to sit behind? Ken Dorsey? Chris Weinke? Trent Dilfer?

Hindsight is 20/20. If Brett Favre hadn't thrown the miracle pass last year; if we had stopped Joseph Addai from throwing that TD last season, after Nate Clements got injured in the game and we held Peyton to no TDs; If Arnaz Battle hadn't fumbled the punt in Houston giving the Texans an easy TD; and if the Seahawks had been called for pass interference on Delanie Walker on the goal line last season, we could have gone 12-4. So what? hindsight.

 

[NinerK]

Alex Smith's rookie season: A wash IMO. Awful team.Alex Smith's 2006 season: 16 TDs, 16 INTs.His RB: Frank GoreHis WRs: Arnaz Battle, Antonio BryantHis TE: Eric JohnsonHis o-line: Terrible as always.Defense gave up 26 ppg.16 TDs, 16 INTs, 2890 yards, 75 rating. On THIS team. At TWENTY TWO.Result: 7-9Alex Smith's 2007 season:WRs: Darrell Jackson, Ashley Lelie, Battle, crap etc.OC: Jim Hostler. enough said.Forced to play with a separated shoulder. Does awful in those games, as expected. Thanks, Nolan2008 season: Injured (thanks Nolan)2009 Seasonoesn't get first team reps, doesn't have Crabtree.Almost leads comeback against Texans down 21-0 Plays decent the rest of the seasonAll these seasons played with one of the worst o-lines in the NFL, leading him to running for his life and throwing the ball away most of the time.He may not be a great NFL QB, but if he's decent, this team should be ok. And call me a Smith lover if you want. I just feel that he hasn't really gotten a fair chance. Others may say he's terrible, and yes, he hasn't played great. But given his circumstances (and there are A LOT of them), I think he has performed decently.Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, got drafted by a playoff team and got to sit behind BRETT FAVRE for 3 years. Who did Alex Smith have to sit behind? Ken Dorsey? Chris Weinke? Trent Dilfer?Hindsight is 20/20. If Brett Favre hadn't thrown the miracle pass last year; if we had stopped Joseph Addai from throwing that TD last season, after Nate Clements got injured in the game and we held Peyton to no TDs; If Arnaz Battle hadn't fumbled the punt in Houston giving the Texans an easy TD; and if the Seahawks had been called for pass interference on Delanie Walker on the goal line last season, we could have gone 12-4. So what? hindsight.

He made some horrible throws against the Colts on Sunday. High, Low, behind Davis....whether it is his fault or not; if they don't make the playoffs this year it's on him.