Accuracy of Mock drafts (1 Viewer)

[sho nuff]

I recall seeing a breakdown of the main mock drafts somewhere and some sort of score/accuracy rating for the mocks.

It broke down the Kiper, Gosselin kind of drafts and listed the more accurate ones out there.

Anyone recall this or have a link?

 

[milfordshane]

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/top100/index.shtml

 

[sho nuff]

Thanks...

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Anyone having an "accurate" mock this year will have gotten extremely lucky*. There's so many question marks this year. At least last year we had a pretty good idea who the top 5 guys were. This year, we don't even know that.

*Except if mine's accurate. Then it's ALLLLLLLL skill, baby.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Anyone having an "accurate" mock this year will have gotten extremely lucky*. There's so many question marks this year. At least last year we had a pretty good idea who the top 5 guys were. This year, we don't even know that.*Except if mine's accurate. Then it's ALLLLLLLL skill, baby.

There was real split between Young and Leinart among the pundits. This year it's Peterson and Quinn. I think the top 10s are relatively similar to forecast. Last year we had some gimmies like Wimbley and Carpenter. This year we may have some like Willis and Lynch. Ngata's fall was late and Sims/Whitner rose during the last week. Whitner from nowhere, Sims just a steady riser. I think we're missing more of that type of information than usual, and I think it stems from a desire to be more secretive this year. I dug up a dozen interviews with scouts last year and posted a few to the blog. I used a piece by a Packer beat writer anonymously quoting about 10 different scouts as a resource. I spent about 15 hours this weekend sitting here watching NBA playoffs and scouring for the inside stuff for a final mock. I found very little.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

At least last year we had a pretty good idea that Mario Williams, Bush, Vernon Davis, and AJ Hawk were going to be in or very near the top 5.

The QBs were more problematic.

 

[Fallerjw]

At least last year we had a pretty good idea that Mario Williams, Bush, Vernon Davis, and AJ Hawk were going to be in or very near the top 5.The QBs were more problematic.

It seems like we have a pretty good idea that JaMarcus RussellCalvin JohnsonJoe Thomas Gaines Adams will all go top 6. One of the other top 6 will likely be either Brady Quin, Adrian Peterson or both. The other players who seem like they could jump into that top 6 are Landry, Willis and Okoye. All 9 of those are almost certain to be gone by pick 12 it seems.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

At least last year we had a pretty good idea that Mario Williams, Bush, Vernon Davis, and AJ Hawk were going to be in or very near the top 5.The QBs were more problematic.

It seems like we have a pretty good idea that Jamarcus RusselCalvin JohnsonJoe Thomas Gaines Adams will all go top 6. One of the other top 6 will likely be either Brady Quin, Adrian Peterson or both. The other players who seem like they could jump into that top 6 are Landry and Okoye. All 8 of those are almost certain to be gone by pick 9 it seems.

I'm not sure about Adams.More specifically, by this point, we had pretty strong indications that Green Bay was taking Hawk and SF was taking Davis. Reggie Bush was going in the first two picks. And the idea of any of the top teams trading up or down seemed far fetched.Maybe I'm just whining...

 

[massraider]

At least last year we had a pretty good idea that Mario Williams, Bush, Vernon Davis, and AJ Hawk were going to be in or very near the top 5.The QBs were more problematic.

It seems like we have a pretty good idea that Jamarcus RusselCalvin JohnsonJoe Thomas Gaines Adams will all go top 6. One of the other top 6 will likely be either Brady Quin, Adrian Peterson or both. The other players who seem like they could jump into that top 6 are Landry and Okoye. All 8 of those are almost certain to be gone by pick 9 it seems.

Quinn and Peterson are the keys.For mockers, if you nail Quinn and Peterson to the right spots, you're gonna be ahead of the game. Where those two go affects several other teams. If you can get those two guys right, you'll be ahead of the game.

 

[Chaos Commish]

At least last year we had a pretty good idea that Mario Williams, Bush, Vernon Davis, and AJ Hawk were going to be in or very near the top 5.The QBs were more problematic.

It seems like we have a pretty good idea that Jamarcus RusselCalvin JohnsonJoe Thomas Gaines Adams will all go top 6. One of the other top 6 will likely be either Brady Quin, Adrian Peterson or both. The other players who seem like they could jump into that top 6 are Landry and Okoye. All 8 of those are almost certain to be gone by pick 9 it seems.

Quinn and Peterson are the keys.For mockers, if you nail Quinn and Peterson to the right spots, you're gonna be ahead of the game. Where those two go affects several other teams. If you can get those two guys right, you'll be ahead of the game.

Agreed. I'm with Andy on Adams too though. But really it wasn't until Thursday that Mario stuff was peaking and looking serious. Some refused to believe it after he signed! Russell and Johnson are Bush and Williams.Quinn and Peterson are Young and Leinart.Thomas is D'Brick.We do not have the same sense for Adams, Landry, Okoye, Anderson that we had for Davis/Hawk. But the sense that Landry and Adams are next in line give or take ONE slot is starting to carve itself in stone.

 

[Fallerjw]

At least last year we had a pretty good idea that Mario Williams, Bush, Vernon Davis, and AJ Hawk were going to be in or very near the top 5.The QBs were more problematic.

It seems like we have a pretty good idea that Jamarcus RusselCalvin JohnsonJoe Thomas Gaines Adams will all go top 6. One of the other top 6 will likely be either Brady Quin, Adrian Peterson or both. The other players who seem like they could jump into that top 6 are Landry and Okoye. All 8 of those are almost certain to be gone by pick 9 it seems.

I'm not sure about Adams.More specifically, by this point, we had pretty strong indications that Green Bay was taking Hawk and SF was taking Davis. Reggie Bush was going in the first two picks. And the idea of any of the top teams trading up or down seemed far fetched.Maybe I'm just whining...

No, I know what you're saying. We know who the likely early picks are, but it's very difficult to nail a certain player to a certain team. Detroit, for example, could go QB, WR or just about anywhere on D depending where they end up picking. And if they stay at #2, it's a total crapshoot. The Browns have been put on all 5 of the top players. A lot of people thinking Tampa wants CJ2, but it could be any of the top 5 also. Arizona could go with Thomas or Peterson, or could go defense.

 

[BGP]

At least last year we had a pretty good idea that Mario Williams, Bush, Vernon Davis, and AJ Hawk were going to be in or very near the top 5.The QBs were more problematic.

That might be a more interesting way to breakdown a mock draft. Instead of trying to focus on hitting precise picks which is often impossible anyway, just look at the general range, like top 5, or top 10. Or reverse the concept of a mock draft entirely. Look at the player first, and the gauge what it would mean if 5-10 different teams might draft that player. So you might start your mock draft by saying "Calvin Johnson", and then detail the fantasy implications of the Raiders, Lions, Browns, Bucs, etc. selecting him. That way there's really only need for one "mock" and it should be extremely useful no matter what the actual outcome of the draft is.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Or reverse the concept of a mock draft entirely. Look at the player first, and the gauge what it would mean if 5-10 different teams might draft that player. So you might start your mock draft by saying "Calvin Johnson", and then detail the fantasy implications of the Raiders, Lions, Browns, Bucs, etc. selecting him. That way there's really only need for one "mock" and it should be extremely useful no matter what the actual outcome of the draft is.

That was suggested to me earlier this year by the FBG named Spike. It's a great idea that unfortunately I never made the time for. Maybe next year.