Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
BTW, as much as I think A-Pete is a beast, Taylor is a great candidate to DESTROY his ADP.
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AD officially reaches the second round (1 Viewer)
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freeannyong
Footballguy
Come on, you really consider Bush an RB in an RBBC? The guy is like a WR1 with the ability to be an RB. I don't consider a guy who is on the field for 85% of the Saints plays as an RBBC. MJD and AP are guys I'm referring to.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I don't speculate or make things up. He has went at 3.06 or higher in 3 of my drafts. I took him at 3.01 in a draft.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
You don't know about what?So pre-season games are OK to judge a 3rd year player, but they're not OK to judge a rookie?I don't know about that I just watched the Chicago/Houston on NFL channel again and they were using Benson ALOT! He even caught 2-3 passes and out of the backfield on designed plays and seemed to run pretty hard. I'm not saying that he is more talented than Peterson, but his situation is better. We all know that ff success is a combination of talent and situation. Benson has a dang good situation.Benson? He's shown nothing yet beyond an ability to get under teammates' skins, an overinflated sense of his own value, a penchant for sticking his foot in his mouth, the inability to beat out a veteran RB, a proclivity for leg injuries, and the ability to rush for 600 yards.
Of course Peterson hasn't shown he can produce in the NFL. He is, by definition, a rookie. In this field, it's customary for us to guess at a rookie's production based on their talent, skill set, college production, team environment, and expected role.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
You don't know about what?So pre-season games are OK to judge a 3rd year player, but they're not OK to judge a rookie?I don't know about that I just watched the Chicago/Houston on NFL channel again and they were using Benson ALOT! He even caught 2-3 passes and out of the backfield on designed plays and seemed to run pretty hard. I'm not saying that he is more talented than Peterson, but his situation is better. We all know that ff success is a combination of talent and situation. Benson has a dang good situation.
Of course Peterson hasn't shown he can produce in the NFL. He is, by definition, a rookie. In this field, it's customary for us to guess at a rookie's production based on their talent, skill set, college production, team environment, and expected role.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I actually think that's his floor rather than his ceiling.
Idiot Boxer
Footballguy
I got him in the 4th round this morning. Very happy with him.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Did he go before Thomas Jones? Just curious.
Benson has played in the NFL and not gotten hurt and ran stronger and stronger as the year went on and he got more touches. So much so, it was bye bye TJ. I happen to have high hopes for Peterson (I wanted the Raiders to draft him). Using your own factorsYou don't know about what?So pre-season games are OK to judge a 3rd year player, but they're not OK to judge a rookie?I don't know about that I just watched the Chicago/Houston on NFL channel again and they were using Benson ALOT! He even caught 2-3 passes and out of the backfield on designed plays and seemed to run pretty hard. I'm not saying that he is more talented than Peterson, but his situation is better. We all know that ff success is a combination of talent and situation. Benson has a dang good situation.Benson? He's shown nothing yet beyond an ability to get under teammates' skins, an overinflated sense of his own value, a penchant for sticking his foot in his mouth, the inability to beat out a veteran RB, a proclivity for leg injuries, and the ability to rush for 600 yards.
Of course Peterson hasn't shown he can produce in the NFL. He is, by definition, a rookie. In this field, it's customary for us to guess at a rookie's production based on their talent, skill set, college production, team environment, and expected role.
Talent - no doubt, Peterson has the talent Skill Set - a little redundent see above
College production- well, the games he was healthy and actually played, he produced. Just like the big plays though, you can't take out the fact that he missed more then half his college carrer due to injury, so at best he produced at 50%.
Team environment - not too great. A fantastic offensive line with no proven WR's or QB to keep defenses honest.
Expected role - nobody here is the head coach, so all we can do is speculate. Let's say 60% of the RB touches with more to come if he stays healthy and can display his talent all year.2nd roudner = NO (unless it is 16 team league, then I can see it)
4th round is a great value IMO, and I'd take him every day of the week and twice on Sunday before TJ
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Yeah, I concur. But a lot of recent mocks I'm seeing have them going in the same neighborhood.
zoonation
Footballguy
he won't get enough touches and the passing offence will get no respect.
switz
Footballguy
I woudl actually say grabbing Peterson ahead of McGahee and Benson is the shark move.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I think you are underestimating his talent. The Viking coaches will see soon enough...if they haven't already...that his talent is too high to not have him on the field and getting the majority of RB touches.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
, take away just about anyone's longest run in that small a sample size and it's not going to look good. For instance, take away Lynch's long run last night and his ypc was 1.75, but he actually looked pretty good.When did I ever say that! Fact: If healthy, Benson will get a HUGE workload in Chicago. Can you say that about Peterson? I don't think so. All you are doing is guessing. I don't like to guess about my second round pick. Thank you.You don't know about what?So pre-season games are OK to judge a 3rd year player, but they're not OK to judge a rookie?I don't know about that I just watched the Chicago/Houston on NFL channel again and they were using Benson ALOT! He even caught 2-3 passes and out of the backfield on designed plays and seemed to run pretty hard. I'm not saying that he is more talented than Peterson, but his situation is better. We all know that ff success is a combination of talent and situation. Benson has a dang good situation.Benson? He's shown nothing yet beyond an ability to get under teammates' skins, an overinflated sense of his own value, a penchant for sticking his foot in his mouth, the inability to beat out a veteran RB, a proclivity for leg injuries, and the ability to rush for 600 yards.
Of course Peterson hasn't shown he can produce in the NFL. He is, by definition, a rookie. In this field, it's customary for us to guess at a rookie's production based on their talent, skill set, college production, team environment, and expected role.
When did I ever say that! Fact: If healthy, Benson will get a HUGE workload in Chicago. Can you say that about Peterson? I don't think so. All you are doing is guessing. I don't like to guess about my second round pick. Thank you.You don't know about what?So pre-season games are OK to judge a 3rd year player, but they're not OK to judge a rookie?I don't know about that I just watched the Chicago/Houston on NFL channel again and they were using Benson ALOT! He even caught 2-3 passes and out of the backfield on designed plays and seemed to run pretty hard. I'm not saying that he is more talented than Peterson, but his situation is better. We all know that ff success is a combination of talent and situation. Benson has a dang good situation.
Of course Peterson hasn't shown he can produce in the NFL. He is, by definition, a rookie. In this field, it's customary for us to guess at a rookie's production based on their talent, skill set, college production, team environment, and expected role.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
You're guessing too...and you're severely underestimating the Bears' Adrian Peterson, who is definitely in Chester Taylor's league as a RB talent. I'm betting on ADP's talent and situation to win out. You're betting on Benson's talent and situation to win out. Both of us are guessing. I like my guess better of course.When did I ever say that! Fact: If healthy, Benson will get a HUGE workload in Chicago. Can you say that about Peterson? I don't think so. All you are doing is guessing. I don't like to guess about my second round pick. Thank you.You don't know about what?So pre-season games are OK to judge a 3rd year player, but they're not OK to judge a rookie?I don't know about that I just watched the Chicago/Houston on NFL channel again and they were using Benson ALOT! He even caught 2-3 passes and out of the backfield on designed plays and seemed to run pretty hard. I'm not saying that he is more talented than Peterson, but his situation is better. We all know that ff success is a combination of talent and situation. Benson has a dang good situation.
Of course Peterson hasn't shown he can produce in the NFL. He is, by definition, a rookie. In this field, it's customary for us to guess at a rookie's production based on their talent, skill set, college production, team environment, and expected role.
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
Ya'll are way too conservative.
Peterson has some downside for sure, but if he fulfills his promise he could carry a top 5-10 value...you talk about guys like Benson and McGahee as if they're sure things, too.
Peterson is an amazing running back talent. He will get a lot of work in a run first offense. I'd be surprised if he didn't get 20 carries a game there...is Childress about winning? I'd imagine so.
If a guy takes Peterson and he flops, then it's a big blow, but he also carries more upside than most of these backs. Chester Taylor is not a talent like Deuce McAllister or Fred Taylor. Some like to roll the dice, and I wouldn't laugh at anyone for taking AD in R2.
Peterson has some downside for sure, but if he fulfills his promise he could carry a top 5-10 value...you talk about guys like Benson and McGahee as if they're sure things, too.
Peterson is an amazing running back talent. He will get a lot of work in a run first offense. I'd be surprised if he didn't get 20 carries a game there...is Childress about winning? I'd imagine so.
If a guy takes Peterson and he flops, then it's a big blow, but he also carries more upside than most of these backs. Chester Taylor is not a talent like Deuce McAllister or Fred Taylor. Some like to roll the dice, and I wouldn't laugh at anyone for taking AD in R2.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Agreed. And, to echo Anthony a few posts above. Most just skipped over him saying he took Peterson at 3.01. But, that means he has LT and Peterson with a top WR at 2.12. That is one way to start a draft with tremendous potential. He could win it all very easily.
packersfan
Footballguy
He's been sitting in the 55-60 range for the most part. It'll be interesting to see how last night's game impacts his ADP and how far he moves up. I still think he's going to be sitting in the late third/early fourth in most drafts unless there's someone in your league who absolutely wants him bad and takes him before that. He's someone I'm targeting at the 3/4 turn in my draft and I'm hoping he's still on the board. I expect him to be along with the following RBs:Lynch
T.Jones
Cadillac
Green
Julius Jones
Of that group I'm debating between Peterson and Lynch if both are on the board. I think Lynch is the safer pick while I think Peterson is the home run pick. But that's the group of RBs Peterson is falling in with at the present time. There's no reason to take him ahead of guys like McGahee or Benson given how he's still on the board in most drafts 2 and sometimes 3 rounds after they've been taken. So rather than trying to decide if you want Peterson or McGahee you could come out of your draft with Peterson and McGahee (assuming you want McGahee, of course).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have seen a few posts in this thread make comparisons to AD and Lynch situations and MANY posts talking about AD being in a RBBC.
What puzzles me is that the HC of the Bills has clearly stated that they will use RBBC this year. While the Vikings coaching staff has not.
What puzzles me is that the HC of the Bills has clearly stated that they will use RBBC this year. While the Vikings coaching staff has not.
F & L, do you feel Peterson is more valuable the MJD? I value your opinion, especially Dynasty related opinions and I'll be quite honest and state that is the position I forsee myself being in for a dynasty draft soon. Having to chose from an MJD, Benson or Peterson. I can see myself pulling the trigger on Peterson over Benson, but I don't know if I could skip MJD for Peterson.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would take AD over MJD without question.
I forgot to mention it is PPR. Biabreakable, thanks for the response. I know you are heavily involved in Dynasty as well, so I appreciate guys like you, F & L and EBF (others out there as well) chime in on these type of Dynasty situations.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
All reports have been saying that AD catches the ball very well, that the coaching staff has been very impressed with that aspect of his game as he was not used as a reciever much in college. MJD is a good player but I do not think he will be as good as AD redraft or dynasty. Even in PPR.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I currently have AP ranked 6th in dynasty, and am seriously considering a higher ranking. I know if I was drafting right now, picking 3rd, he would be one of the RBs in that tier that I would strongly consider.
I really think he is going to be an absolute beast. I also think he has the highest upside of all of the RBs not named LT...and that's only because his upside is almost unreachable.
I really think he is going to be an absolute beast. I also think he has the highest upside of all of the RBs not named LT...and that's only because his upside is almost unreachable.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Borbely & Biabreakable beat me to it b/c I pretty much agree with everything they just said. It's no secret that I think MJD is being unfairly downgraded this year and that I think he's a playmaker and touchdown scorer from all over the field. He's a tremendous talent and a great dynasty RB. Anybody concerned about Greg Jones lacks vision and anybody concerned about Fred Taylor should be even more concerned about Deuce McAllister's impact on Bush's numbers.
However, you win in fantasy football by riding monsters to the title. LT2 is a monster. Steven Jackson is a monster. Larry Johnson has been a monster. Priest Holmes was a monster. Adrian Peterson has that kind of talent. I will always go after the player who I believe has that kind of difference making ability. MJD is very good and possibly a weekly advantage over other RBs. But I want the monster.
In dynasty leagues I don't think Benson is even in the conversation.
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I'm going to agree to disagree, but every year rookies get some major over hyping in fantasy leagues. Maybe Peterson will prove me wrong this year. For everyone who is anointing Peterson as a second round pick, do you really believe his situation is good enough to warrant that high of a pick? I see Minn. as last in the NFC North this year and playing from behind alot with a QB who is going to get no respect. He may put up top 20 RB #'s but those hoping for top 10 I think may be disappointed.Finally, a Voice of Reason.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The only thing I see stopping AD from being a top 20 RB is injury. He has the talent to crack the top 10 but I would not count on that in this rookie season.While I do think he is going to be much more busy than Chester in Vikings offense, Chester will still get action. The Vikings will not get the ball to AD 400 times this year. And that is what can hold AD back from finishing top 5 or top 10. Top 20 I think is a lock though.I'm going to agree to disagree, but every year rookies get some major over hyping in fantasy leagues. Maybe Peterson will prove me wrong this year. For everyone who is anointing Peterson as a second round pick, do you really believe his situation is good enough to warrant that high of a pick? I see Minn. as last in the NFC North this year and playing from behind alot with a QB who is going to get no respect. He may put up top 20 RB #'s but those hoping for top 10 I think may be disappointed.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I don't get this line of thinking. Why would you pigeon-hole all rookies like that? Why wouldn't you make exceptions for elite talent? The quality of players coming out isn't the same every year. We're not talking facsimiles or assembly line robotic RBs. Peterson isn't "1st Round Rookie RB Mark VIII." Just like in basketball, some years you get lucky with a Tim Duncan at #1 overall, other years you're stuck with Michael Olowokandi. Adrian Peterson is a Tim Duncan -- most rookie RBs are closer to Olowokandi.You have to make exceptions for exceptional talent. Change happens in a hurry in the NFL. You have to anticipate to stay ahead of the curve. Embrace that distant shore. Or you can sit safely on the dock of the bay with the other guys and their sacred Average Draft Position/Value Based Drafting.I'm going to agree to disagree, but every year rookies get some major over hyping in fantasy leagues. Maybe Peterson will prove me wrong this year. For everyone who is anointing Peterson as a second round pick, do you really believe his situation is good enough to warrant that high of a pick? I see Minn. as last in the NFC North this year and playing from behind alot with a QB who is going to get no respect. He may put up top 20 RB #'s but those hoping for top 10 I think may be disappointed.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Exceptionally
, that's exactly what I was thinking.Rookies are often over-hyped in fantasy football. But some people get so annoyed with that fact that they take it too far and write off every single rookie as "just another overhyped rookie".Part of the problem is that most likely the two best RB prospects to come out in the last decade came out in back to back years, so people are writing it off as "we hear this best prospect in a decade stuff every year".
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Please stay away from anything that has to do with AD Chunky Soup.TIA
((Morpheus))
Footballguy
You guys have talked me into it... I'll be jumping on him in the 3rd tomorrow.
i just drafted in a Fantasy Jungle High Roller Sat. league, extremely shark infested with some of the top talent in the country,and got him at 5.09. Not sure what to make of that. Its a ppr league and you can start a qb at flex,(1 qb, 2 rb , 3 wr, flex) and i thought that would have made a difference, but there were only 6 qb's off the board by that pick. I just thought it strange. Even stranger when i got fred taylor at 9.09!
thehornet
Footballguy
sounds awfully sharky with all that freakish talent gathered in one place.
Consider it a victory getting AP where you did.
jurb26
Footballguy
So true.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Fear & Loathing said:I don't get this line of thinking. Why would you pigeon-hole all rookies like that? Why wouldn't you make exceptions for elite talent? The quality of players coming out isn't the same every year. We're not talking facsimiles or assembly line robotic RBs. Peterson isn't "1st Round Rookie RB Mark VIII." Just like in basketball, some years you get lucky with a Tim Duncan at #1 overall, other years you're stuck with Michael Olowokandi. Adrian Peterson is a Tim Duncan -- most rookie RBs are closer to Olowokandi.You have to make exceptions for exceptional talent. Change happens in a hurry in the NFL. You have to anticipate to stay ahead of the curve. Embrace that distant shore. Or you can sit safely on the dock of the bay with the other guys and their sacred Average Draft Position/Value Based Drafting.lebowski said:I'm going to agree to disagree, but every year rookies get some major over hyping in fantasy leagues. Maybe Peterson will prove me wrong this year. For everyone who is anointing Peterson as a second round pick, do you really believe his situation is good enough to warrant that high of a pick? I see Minn. as last in the NFC North this year and playing from behind alot with a QB who is going to get no respect. He may put up top 20 RB #'s but those hoping for top 10 I think may be disappointed.Fear & Loathing said:Voice Of Reason said:
Adrian Peterson appears to be an exceptional talent. When I see him, I see Bo Jackson. I see Eric Dickerson. I see a beast. If you want to make a basketball analogy, I see Lebron James. A man-child that comes along once in a decade. In most years, there is no AD to draft. But this year there is. Take advantage of it if you can. Sure don't overvalue him in a redraft but don't write him off as just any rookie RB either.Justloveit
Footballguy
Whilst I agree that AD is an exceptionally talented RB who has the potential to have an outstanding career, it seems to me that virtually every year there is some rookie who is a "once in a decade" or a "once in a generation" type talent and every year people spend early picks on these guys expecting them to explode onto the NFL scene in their rookie years and virtually every year they are disappointed. At least Reggie Bush had the advantage of his incredible speed and receiving skills that enabled him to be on the field at the same time with Deuce. How is AD going to get enough carries whilst Chester is still in the picture to warrant such high picks? I'm not going to even bother to enter into the debate about AD as a 2nd round pick, that's just suicide IMO, even as a 4th rounder though there are still some excellent sure bets, particularly at WR available. Spend your mid to late round picks on potential home run hitters, bypassing safe, proven producers in the first 4 rounds to take a rookie who unless an injury occurs to Chester is slated to split carries is a big mistake IMO.Fear & Loathing said:I don't get this line of thinking. Why would you pigeon-hole all rookies like that? Why wouldn't you make exceptions for elite talent? The quality of players coming out isn't the same every year. We're not talking facsimiles or assembly line robotic RBs. Peterson isn't "1st Round Rookie RB Mark VIII." Just like in basketball, some years you get lucky with a Tim Duncan at #1 overall, other years you're stuck with Michael Olowokandi. Adrian Peterson is a Tim Duncan -- most rookie RBs are closer to Olowokandi.You have to make exceptions for exceptional talent. Change happens in a hurry in the NFL. You have to anticipate to stay ahead of the curve. Embrace that distant shore. Or you can sit safely on the dock of the bay with the other guys and their sacred Average Draft Position/Value Based Drafting.lebowski said:I'm going to agree to disagree, but every year rookies get some major over hyping in fantasy leagues. Maybe Peterson will prove me wrong this year. For everyone who is anointing Peterson as a second round pick, do you really believe his situation is good enough to warrant that high of a pick? I see Minn. as last in the NFC North this year and playing from behind alot with a QB who is going to get no respect. He may put up top 20 RB #'s but those hoping for top 10 I think may be disappointed.Fear & Loathing said:Voice Of Reason said:
JayMan
Footballguy
Two wonderfulFreeBaGeL said:ExceptionallyFear & Loathing said:
s ... Exactly my thoughts... We can't generalize: 'Penn St RBs can't do it in the NFL' - ooops, LJ... 'small WRs can't do it in the NFL' - here comes Steve Smith...Let's look at the player's talent and opportunity and make our own judgment on that... Like F&L mentioned in this thread... FF championship (especially in dynasty leagues) are won by the monsters on your roster... and AD looks like a monster to me...Justloveit
Footballguy
The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.Two wonderfulFreeBaGeL said:ExceptionallyFear & Loathing said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
freeannyong
Footballguy
Justloveit
Footballguy
Like I said, AD is just the latest in a long line of "once in a generation" prospects coming into the NFL. Is he going to produce in the NFL? Based on his skill set, it's almost certain barring injury that he'll eventually be a stud in the NFL. Does that mean he's going to come and dominate from year 1 and subsequently take you to a FF championship? Not likely, and as such spending such a high pick on him is a risk that's not worth taking. If we were talking about a 6th or 7th round pick then I wouldn't be arguing his risk, since at that point in the draft going for the home run hitter is worthwhile. Using a 4th or higher round pick on a risky prospect is unjustifiable. Seems to me more than anything people just want AD on their teams so they can root for him which is pushing his ADP even higher. FB, i'm not saying that AD is just another overhyped rookie sensation that's unlikely to ever succeed, I agree with the points you made in your post. I'm not disputing the consensus that AD is a great great prospect, all i'm saying is that considering his lack of NFL experience, the fact he'll be sharing carries etc he is an extremely risky pick within the top 4 rounds. I dont see how anyone could argue against that.
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kingmalaki
Footballguy
I have the first pick in a 1 player keeper league and I'm praying that Peterson makes it back to me at the 2/3 turn. If so then I will gladly pick him there. I don't know if I could pick him late 2nd/early 3rd in a redraft league though. That seems quite high...
