AD officially reaches the second round (1 Viewer)

[Fear & Loathing]

You can't teach anticipation.

 

[Justloveit]

You can't teach anticipation.

Are you referring to AD's anticipation as part of his skill set, or your anticipation of AD becoming an all world RB who can carry your fantasy team? I'm assuming we're talking about where AD should go in redraft rankings, in which case your anticipation of AD's breakthrough to the uber elite fantasy status 3 seasons before it happens is kind of irrelevant.

 

[Christo]

Rookies are often over-hyped in fantasy football. But some people get so annoyed with that fact that they take it too far and write off every single rookie as "just another overhyped rookie".Part of the problem is that most likely the two best RB prospects to come out in the last decade came out in back to back years, so people are writing it off as "we hear this best prospect in a decade stuff every year".

And then not 10 posts later...

it seems to me that virtually every year there is some rookie who is a "once in a decade" or a "once in a generation" type talent and every year people spend early picks on these guys expecting them to explode onto the NFL scene in their rookie years and virtually every year they are disappointed.

Like I said, AD is just the latest in a long line of "once in a generation" prospects coming into the NFL.

Long line, huh? When will people give this up? FreeBaGel is right. People only make this comment because AD and Bush went in back-to-back years. Just take a look at the 20 years before those two were drafted and give a fair assessment of who was touted as a "once in a generation" RB:05 - Ronnie Brown - No04 - Steven Jackson - No03 - Willis McGahee No02 - William Green - No01 - LaDanian Tomlinson - Yes00 - Jamal Lewis - No99 - Edgerrin James - No98 - Curtis Enis - No97 - Warrick Dunn - No96 - Lawrence Phillips - No95 - Ki-Jana Carter - No94 - Marshall Faulk - Yes93 - Garrison Hearst - No92 - Tommy Vardell - No91 - Leonard Russell - No90 - Blair Thomas - No89 - Barry Sanders - Yes88 - Gaston Green - No87 - Alonzo Highsmith - No86 - Bo Jackson - YesThat's not what I'd call a long line of "once in a generation" RBs. More like a long line of mediocrity with a few gems thrown in.

 

[(HULK)]

A lot of talk of "swing for the fences" type of drafting.

I do it a lot in drafts, just not in the first 4 rounds. There is an often repeated maxim you'll hear from the staff around here and I find it very true, "You can't win your league in the first few rounds of a draft, but you can lose it." Your first four picks are the core of your team... if one of them busts, you're behind the 8 ball from the get go.

I personally won't draft AP in the first four rounds. I'll take risks later (maybe on Lynch).... but I will not take such as risk as a core player.

People were jumping all over themselves to take Bush last season... I don't think he ended up being a value for where he was drafted... especially when Addia was going 3/4 rounds later and was ultimately a better contributor last season.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I don't think anyone doubts that the guy has beastly talent. The only question for me has been the supporting cast.

Precisely. I've said before, that is THE huge question. If Jackson sucks and nobody respects the passing game, it will make life particularly tough on Peterson. Jackson looks good for now, but all these defenses in the preseason are disgustingly vanilla. If A-Pete was around during the Culpepper/Moss era.....

Not only that, who on that WR corp scares you. I think it is the weakest in the NFL or at least one of the worst 3

 

[Justloveit]

Rookies are often over-hyped in fantasy football. But some people get so annoyed with that fact that they take it too far and write off every single rookie as "just another overhyped rookie".Part of the problem is that most likely the two best RB prospects to come out in the last decade came out in back to back years, so people are writing it off as "we hear this best prospect in a decade stuff every year".

And then not 10 posts later...

it seems to me that virtually every year there is some rookie who is a "once in a decade" or a "once in a generation" type talent and every year people spend early picks on these guys expecting them to explode onto the NFL scene in their rookie years and virtually every year they are disappointed.

Like I said, AD is just the latest in a long line of "once in a generation" prospects coming into the NFL.

Long line, huh? When will people give this up? FreeBaGel is right. People only make this comment because AD and Bush went in back-to-back years. Just take a look at the 20 years before those two were drafted and give a fair assessment of who was touted as a "once in a generation" RB:05 - Ronnie Brown - No04 - Steven Jackson - No03 - Willis McGahee No02 - William Green - No01 - LaDanian Tomlinson - Yes00 - Jamal Lewis - No99 - Edgerrin James - No98 - Curtis Enis - No97 - Warrick Dunn - No96 - Lawrence Phillips - No95 - Ki-Jana Carter - No94 - Marshall Faulk - Yes93 - Garrison Hearst - No92 - Tommy Vardell - No91 - Leonard Russell - No90 - Blair Thomas - No89 - Barry Sanders - Yes88 - Gaston Green - No87 - Alonzo Highsmith - No86 - Bo Jackson - YesThat's not what I'd call a long line of "once in a generation" RBs. More like a long line of mediocrity with a few gems thrown in.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing isn't it?Incidently, how many of those guys had what you would describe as "monster" rookie seasons? As I stated previously, AD could be a once in a generation RB, i'm not disputing his talent or the fact that he could one day be truly great. What I am arguing against is people's reasoning that this rookie should be a top 3-4 round pick.

 

[Justloveit]

A lot of talk of "swing for the fences" type of drafting.I do it a lot in drafts, just not in the first 4 rounds. There is an often repeated maxim you'll hear from the staff around here and I find it very true, "You can't win your league in the first few rounds of a draft, but you can lose it." Your first four picks are the core of your team... if one of them busts, you're behind the 8 ball from the get go.I personally won't draft AP in the first four rounds. I'll take risks later (maybe on Lynch).... but I will not take such as risk as a core player.People were jumping all over themselves to take Bush last season... I don't think he ended up being a value for where he was drafted... especially when Addia was going 3/4 rounds later and was ultimately a better contributor last season.

Exactly.

 

[Christo]

Rookies are often over-hyped in fantasy football. But some people get so annoyed with that fact that they take it too far and write off every single rookie as "just another overhyped rookie".Part of the problem is that most likely the two best RB prospects to come out in the last decade came out in back to back years, so people are writing it off as "we hear this best prospect in a decade stuff every year".

And then not 10 posts later...

it seems to me that virtually every year there is some rookie who is a "once in a decade" or a "once in a generation" type talent and every year people spend early picks on these guys expecting them to explode onto the NFL scene in their rookie years and virtually every year they are disappointed.

Like I said, AD is just the latest in a long line of "once in a generation" prospects coming into the NFL.

Long line, huh? When will people give this up? FreeBaGel is right. People only make this comment because AD and Bush went in back-to-back years. Just take a look at the 20 years before those two were drafted and give a fair assessment of who was touted as a "once in a generation" RB:05 - Ronnie Brown - No04 - Steven Jackson - No03 - Willis McGahee No02 - William Green - No01 - LaDanian Tomlinson - Yes00 - Jamal Lewis - No99 - Edgerrin James - No98 - Curtis Enis - No97 - Warrick Dunn - No96 - Lawrence Phillips - No95 - Ki-Jana Carter - No94 - Marshall Faulk - Yes93 - Garrison Hearst - No92 - Tommy Vardell - No91 - Leonard Russell - No90 - Blair Thomas - No89 - Barry Sanders - Yes88 - Gaston Green - No87 - Alonzo Highsmith - No86 - Bo Jackson - YesThat's not what I'd call a long line of "once in a generation" RBs. More like a long line of mediocrity with a few gems thrown in.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing isn't it?

What are you talking about?

 

[Darth Cheney]

Rookies are often over-hyped in fantasy football. But some people get so annoyed with that fact that they take it too far and write off every single rookie as "just another overhyped rookie".Part of the problem is that most likely the two best RB prospects to come out in the last decade came out in back to back years, so people are writing it off as "we hear this best prospect in a decade stuff every year".

And then not 10 posts later...

it seems to me that virtually every year there is some rookie who is a "once in a decade" or a "once in a generation" type talent and every year people spend early picks on these guys expecting them to explode onto the NFL scene in their rookie years and virtually every year they are disappointed.

Like I said, AD is just the latest in a long line of "once in a generation" prospects coming into the NFL.

Long line, huh? When will people give this up? FreeBaGel is right. People only make this comment because AD and Bush went in back-to-back years. Just take a look at the 20 years before those two were drafted and give a fair assessment of who was touted as a "once in a generation" RB:05 - Ronnie Brown - No04 - Steven Jackson - No03 - Willis McGahee No02 - William Green - No01 - LaDanian Tomlinson - Yes00 - Jamal Lewis - No99 - Edgerrin James - No98 - Curtis Enis - No97 - Warrick Dunn - No96 - Lawrence Phillips - No95 - Ki-Jana Carter - No94 - Marshall Faulk - Yes93 - Garrison Hearst - No92 - Tommy Vardell - No91 - Leonard Russell - No90 - Blair Thomas - No89 - Barry Sanders - Yes88 - Gaston Green - No87 - Alonzo Highsmith - No86 - Bo Jackson - YesThat's not what I'd call a long line of "once in a generation" RBs. More like a long line of mediocrity with a few gems thrown in.

Wasn't Ricky Williams going into that draft thought of as a once in a generation back? I remember there being a big stink about James going before him.

 

[Justloveit]

Rookies are often over-hyped in fantasy football. But some people get so annoyed with that fact that they take it too far and write off every single rookie as "just another overhyped rookie".Part of the problem is that most likely the two best RB prospects to come out in the last decade came out in back to back years, so people are writing it off as "we hear this best prospect in a decade stuff every year".

And then not 10 posts later...

it seems to me that virtually every year there is some rookie who is a "once in a decade" or a "once in a generation" type talent and every year people spend early picks on these guys expecting them to explode onto the NFL scene in their rookie years and virtually every year they are disappointed.

Like I said, AD is just the latest in a long line of "once in a generation" prospects coming into the NFL.

Long line, huh? When will people give this up? FreeBaGel is right. People only make this comment because AD and Bush went in back-to-back years. Just take a look at the 20 years before those two were drafted and give a fair assessment of who was touted as a "once in a generation" RB:05 - Ronnie Brown - No04 - Steven Jackson - No03 - Willis McGahee No02 - William Green - No01 - LaDanian Tomlinson - Yes00 - Jamal Lewis - No99 - Edgerrin James - No98 - Curtis Enis - No97 - Warrick Dunn - No96 - Lawrence Phillips - No95 - Ki-Jana Carter - No94 - Marshall Faulk - Yes93 - Garrison Hearst - No92 - Tommy Vardell - No91 - Leonard Russell - No90 - Blair Thomas - No89 - Barry Sanders - Yes88 - Gaston Green - No87 - Alonzo Highsmith - No86 - Bo Jackson - YesThat's not what I'd call a long line of "once in a generation" RBs. More like a long line of mediocrity with a few gems thrown in.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing isn't it?

What are you talking about?

My initial comment was in reference to draft analysts seemingly every yr talking up a RB or WR or whatever as an elite prospect, and each yr people take that player very high in fantasy drafts only to be disappointed.The discussion is getting sidetracked.I'm arguing against AD's rising ADP. Not whether he is a once in a generation prospect or not.

 

[Ilov80s]

Rookies are often over-hyped in fantasy football. But some people get so annoyed with that fact that they take it too far and write off every single rookie as "just another overhyped rookie".Part of the problem is that most likely the two best RB prospects to come out in the last decade came out in back to back years, so people are writing it off as "we hear this best prospect in a decade stuff every year".

And then not 10 posts later...

it seems to me that virtually every year there is some rookie who is a "once in a decade" or a "once in a generation" type talent and every year people spend early picks on these guys expecting them to explode onto the NFL scene in their rookie years and virtually every year they are disappointed.

Like I said, AD is just the latest in a long line of "once in a generation" prospects coming into the NFL.

Long line, huh? When will people give this up? FreeBaGel is right. People only make this comment because AD and Bush went in back-to-back years. Just take a look at the 20 years before those two were drafted and give a fair assessment of who was touted as a "once in a generation" RB:05 - Ronnie Brown - No04 - Steven Jackson - No03 - Willis McGahee No02 - William Green - No01 - LaDanian Tomlinson - Yes00 - Jamal Lewis - No99 - Edgerrin James - No98 - Curtis Enis - No97 - Warrick Dunn - No96 - Lawrence Phillips - No95 - Ki-Jana Carter - No94 - Marshall Faulk - Yes93 - Garrison Hearst - No92 - Tommy Vardell - No91 - Leonard Russell - No90 - Blair Thomas - No89 - Barry Sanders - Yes88 - Gaston Green - No87 - Alonzo Highsmith - No86 - Bo Jackson - YesThat's not what I'd call a long line of "once in a generation" RBs. More like a long line of mediocrity with a few gems thrown in.

I'd say Bush in 06 would be a Yes as well. I also find it odd that all the players you have marked as Yes turned into studs almost instantly. Looking back though, I don't think LT was considered a once in a generation talent. The Football Sheet website actually had Deuce and Bennett ranked ahead of LT. According to Football Futures, "(LT) reminds me of Philadelphia's Duce Staley. Once he adjusts to running from a pro-set instead of a veer offense, watch him grow into a very effective back. Definitely starting material, but he has enough to only garner All-Pro consideration eventually, but this is no franchise back (or anyone else) here, folks. His numbers are very impressive, but he's a product of the team's system. Too bad too many general managers are desperate for a running back, as he'll go higher than his stock dictates."Add to that, many scouts and football junkies ranked Lynch ahead of Peterson. I don't think this "once in a generation" thing is as clean and clear as you portray it.ETA: Sorry, the discussion did get very sidetracked.

 

[Ilov80s]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Add to that, many scouts and football junkies ranked Lynch ahead of Peterson. I don't think this "once in a generation" thing is as clean and clear as you portray it.

I have never seen one NFL scout who had Lynch even close to Peterson. If you have, I'd like to see it.

 

[Christo]

I'd say Bush in 06 would be a Yes as well.

No, really?

I also find it odd that all the players you have marked as Yes turned into studs almost instantly.

That usually happens with highly skilled players.

Looking back though, I don't think LT was considered a once in a generation talent. The Football Sheet website actually had Deuce and Bennett ranked ahead of LT. According to Football Futures, "(LT) reminds me of Philadelphia's Duce Staley. Once he adjusts to running from a pro-set instead of a veer offense, watch him grow into a very effective back. Definitely starting material, but he has enough to only garner All-Pro consideration eventually, but this is no franchise back (or anyone else) here, folks. His numbers are very impressive, but he's a product of the team's system. Too bad too many general managers are desperate for a running back, as he'll go higher than his stock dictates."

As I remember the only knock against LT2 was his lack of competition in college. But taking your comment at face value, it goes against the argument that there's been a long line of "once in a lifetime" RBs.

Add to that, many scouts and football junkies ranked Lynch ahead of Peterson. I don't think this "once in a generation" thing is as clean and clear as you portray it.

Who is claiming that Lynch is more talented than Peterson?

ETA: Sorry, the discussion did get very sidetracked.

It's Sunday morning and it's raining. Not much else to do.

 

[Ilov80s]

Add to that, many scouts and football junkies ranked Lynch ahead of Peterson. I don't think this "once in a generation" thing is as clean and clear as you portray it.

I have never seen one NFL scout who had Lynch even close to Peterson. If you have, I'd like to see it.

"Lynch is the best all around player at the position in this class. Does this surprise you? It surprised me when I evaluated the two players, but I stand behind it. Lynch is a much more disciplined runner with a better ball control and receiving techniques..."- From a certain guy that sells a rookie scouting prospectus at another site that shall remain nameless

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Add to that, many scouts and football junkies ranked Lynch ahead of Peterson. I don't think this "once in a generation" thing is as clean and clear as you portray it.

I have never seen one NFL scout who had Lynch even close to Peterson. If you have, I'd like to see it.

"Lynch is the best all around player at the position in this class. Does this surprise you? It surprised me when I evaluated the two players, but I stand behind it. Lynch is a much more disciplined runner with a better ball control and receiving techniques..."- From a certain guy that sells a rookie scouting prospectus at another site that shall remain nameless

Nameless...I love it He should remain nameless with comments like that.

Let me know if you come up with a legit NFL scout who believes that.

 

[Sleeper 43]

meh. take away the big run and his ypc is 3.85. big deal. late 5th round is the earliest i would consider him.

MONROE ! Its not just the big run.. its what we expected based off everything he did in college. He confirmed he can translate his game, thats a big step. Nothing more Nothing less Just the fact hes getting the ball more than Chester in the Pre-season is surprising for the migration of carries to occur so soon.I'm not an AP homer, but if I owned him in Dynasty that run would at least confirm he capable, but Im not saying his career is written in stone off the run.

 

[bb7278]

Wow this really blew up. Good discussion.

Benson

McGahee

James

Portis

Brown

None of those guys in Round 2 does anything more to "play safe". If you want to protect your investment as well simply come back and get Chester slighty above his ADP in the 6th, Minnesota WILL be fine running the rock this year, they have a top 5 Run block offense based on FBG projections. The way I see this is if AP keeps playing like this he'll get 75% of the touches. Chester wont be on the field but 25% of the time. If AP is out you get 90% Chester and a sprinkle of 10% MeMo.

Sounds like a win-win to me.

 

[Routilla]

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

 

[Ilov80s]

Add to that, many scouts and football junkies ranked Lynch ahead of Peterson. I don't think this "once in a generation" thing is as clean and clear as you portray it.

I have never seen one NFL scout who had Lynch even close to Peterson. If you have, I'd like to see it.

"Lynch is the best all around player at the position in this class. Does this surprise you? It surprised me when I evaluated the two players, but I stand behind it. Lynch is a much more disciplined runner with a better ball control and receiving techniques..."- From a certain guy that sells a rookie scouting prospectus at another site that shall remain nameless

Nameless...I love it He should remain nameless with comments like that.

Let me know if you come up with a legit NFL scout who believes that.

It was a joke, calm down. Its the red-headed stepchild known as FFToday.Here from a Sporting News interview with NFL scouts

""He is the kind of guy who can score any time he touches the ball. But his style is susceptible to getting a lot of hits. He runs straight up, and it makes him vulnerable. That's maybe why he gets hurt. I like the way (Marshawn) Lynch runs better; he is closer to the ground, more elusive, breaks tackles. I would take Lynch over Peterson."

 

[Sleeper 43]

Wow this really blew up. Good discussion.BensonMcGaheeJamesPortis BrownNone of those guys in Round 2 does anything more to "play safe". If you want to protect your investment as well simply come back and get Chester slighty above his ADP in the 6th, Minnesota WILL be fine running the rock this year, they have a top 5 Run block offense based on FBG projections. The way I see this is if AP keeps playing like this he'll get 75% of the touches. Chester wont be on the field but 25% of the time. If AP is out you get 90% Chester and a sprinkle of 10% MeMo. Sounds like a win-win to me.

Its a sin in 50 countries to put McGahee's name with those others. McGahee barring injury will surpass all these guys easily..including AP.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Add to that, many scouts and football junkies ranked Lynch ahead of Peterson. I don't think this "once in a generation" thing is as clean and clear as you portray it.

I have never seen one NFL scout who had Lynch even close to Peterson. If you have, I'd like to see it.

"Lynch is the best all around player at the position in this class. Does this surprise you? It surprised me when I evaluated the two players, but I stand behind it. Lynch is a much more disciplined runner with a better ball control and receiving techniques..."- From a certain guy that sells a rookie scouting prospectus at another site that shall remain nameless

Nameless...I love it He should remain nameless with comments like that.

Let me know if you come up with a legit NFL scout who believes that.

It was a joke, calm down. Its the red-headed stepchild known as FFToday.Here from a Sporting News interview with NFL scouts

""He is the kind of guy who can score any time he touches the ball. But his style is susceptible to getting a lot of hits. He runs straight up, and it makes him vulnerable. That's maybe why he gets hurt. I like the way (Marshawn) Lynch runs better; he is closer to the ground, more elusive, breaks tackles. I would take Lynch over Peterson."

That would be a lot more credible if a scouts name was attached to the comment. I did laugh at the red-headed stepchild comment though.

 

[cobalt_27]

Add to that, many scouts and football junkies ranked Lynch ahead of Peterson. I don't think this "once in a generation" thing is as clean and clear as you portray it.

I have never seen one NFL scout who had Lynch even close to Peterson. If you have, I'd like to see it.

"Lynch is the best all around player at the position in this class. Does this surprise you? It surprised me when I evaluated the two players, but I stand behind it. Lynch is a much more disciplined runner with a better ball control and receiving techniques..."- From a certain guy that sells a rookie scouting prospectus at another site that shall remain nameless

Nameless...I love it He should remain nameless with comments like that.

Let me know if you come up with a legit NFL scout who believes that.

It was a joke, calm down. Its the red-headed stepchild known as FFToday.Here from a Sporting News interview with NFL scouts

""He is the kind of guy who can score any time he touches the ball. But his style is susceptible to getting a lot of hits. He runs straight up, and it makes him vulnerable. That's maybe why he gets hurt. I like the way (Marshawn) Lynch runs better; he is closer to the ground, more elusive, breaks tackles. I would take Lynch over Peterson."

That would be a lot more credible if a scouts name was attached to the comment. I did laugh at the red-headed stepchild comment though.

How would this lend credibility to the statement? Do you think SN is making it up? You know who all the scouts are and who's better than others?

Scouts always talk to reporters on the condition of anonymity. This is one scout's take on the two players. I'm sure there are plenty of other NFL personnel/scouts who feel the other way. But, let's not act like there isn't some question about Peterson's durability and long-term success, particularly when compared to Lynch.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Add to that, many scouts and football junkies ranked Lynch ahead of Peterson. I don't think this "once in a generation" thing is as clean and clear as you portray it.

I have never seen one NFL scout who had Lynch even close to Peterson. If you have, I'd like to see it.

"Lynch is the best all around player at the position in this class. Does this surprise you? It surprised me when I evaluated the two players, but I stand behind it. Lynch is a much more disciplined runner with a better ball control and receiving techniques..."- From a certain guy that sells a rookie scouting prospectus at another site that shall remain nameless

Nameless...I love it He should remain nameless with comments like that.

Let me know if you come up with a legit NFL scout who believes that.

It was a joke, calm down. Its the red-headed stepchild known as FFToday.Here from a Sporting News interview with NFL scouts

""He is the kind of guy who can score any time he touches the ball. But his style is susceptible to getting a lot of hits. He runs straight up, and it makes him vulnerable. That's maybe why he gets hurt. I like the way (Marshawn) Lynch runs better; he is closer to the ground, more elusive, breaks tackles. I would take Lynch over Peterson."

That would be a lot more credible if a scouts name was attached to the comment. I did laugh at the red-headed stepchild comment though.

How would this lend credibility to the statement? Do you think SN is making it up? You know who all the scouts are and who's better than others?

Scouts always talk to reporters on the condition of anonymity. This is one scout's take on the two players. I'm sure there are plenty of other NFL personnel/scouts who feel the other way. But, let's not act like there isn't some question about Peterson's durability and long-term success, particularly when compared to Lynch.

I just want to see the name of a scout who says Lynch is a better prospect. I'm not saying some don't think that, but I just haven't seen any. I want to see names. I'm not saying anyone made anything up, but I want to see a name, that's all. This is not a big deal.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

I got him in the 4th round this morning. Very happy with him.

Did he go before Thomas Jones? Just curious.

Thomas Jones went 2.11

 

[FreeBaGeL]

There is an often repeated maxim you'll hear from the staff around here and I find it very true, "You can't win your league in the first few rounds of a draft, but you can lose it."

I'm sorry, but this is one of the biggest myths in fantasy football. It's really just some cool sounding proverb that someone invented without any real statistical backdrop and people like the sound of it and roll with it without really giving it any thought. A good pick in the early rounds can help you just as much as a bad pick in the early rounds can hurt you.This argument came up a few years back with the Priest/LJ vs. LT debate, but I'll go last year since that's more in people's head. This same kind of thing came up last year with the debate about the number 7-8 with Rudi vs. Sjax. Rudi was the safe guy, Sjax the upside guy. We heard it from everyone...."you can't win your league in the 1st round...but you can lose it".In the end, Rudi did exactly what everyone thought he would and put up a nice safe 1500/12. Sjax beat him out by a solid 800 yards and 4 touchdowns, or 104 fantasy points.To put that in perspective, we can take a 1st round bust like Edgerrin James that many people were screaming "lost" them the league and Rudi outscored him by 100 yards and 6 touchdowns, or 46 fantasy points.Now obviously no one player can "actually" win or lose you your league. You can draft Ryan Leaf in the 1st round and win your league, just like you can get LT 12th overall and lose. But what we're really talking about is guys putting you at a significant disadvantage vs. guys putting you at a significant advantage.That said, my point is how can we say that a guy losing you 46 points from the "safe" pick is putting you at a bigger disadvantage than a guy gaining you 104 points from the "safe" pick is putting you at an advantage?To lose as many points from drafting the bust instead of Rudi as you gained from drafting Sjax instead you would've had to take a guy that went for 700yards and 8 TDs. You could've taken Warrick Dunn in the 1st round and still come out ahead of those numbers. To say it again, taking Sjax over Rudi in the first round gained you more points last year than taking Warrick Dunn over Rudi in the 1st round would have lost you.But what makes this worse is that you're trying to apply it to the FIRST FOUR ROUNDS? If that's the case, then unless you have a top 3 pick AND are willing to take Rudi at 3rd overall you're coming out of the first 3 rounds with zero RBs, because after that there are no more "safe" RBs.

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

As I stated previously, AD could be a once in a generation RB

It's not a matter of "could be". I don't think anyone here is talking about "once in a generation" in terms of there NFL career here. When "once in decade" or "once in a generation" is brought up here people are talking about as a prospect. Nobody was saying those words with Ronnie Brown, or Cedric Benson, or William Green, or TJ Duckett, or Steven Jackson, or any of those other guys that have gone recently. I really only started following the draft in the mid-90's so I can't comment on Sanders/Bo Jackson, but I would guess that if you compiled a list of best prospects, or prospect rankings since that point that Bush and AD would be at the top. I do actually remember something like this from last year where each year a number grade was applied to prospects. It went back only the last 5 years or so but Bush's was quite a bit higher than everyone else's. I imagine AD would fall into that same category.

 

[Raider Nation]

I got him in the 4th round this morning. Very happy with him.

Did he go before Thomas Jones? Just curious.

Thomas Jones went 2.11

That's crazy talk.

 

[ratpfink]

There's a lot of confusion in this thread. I'll clear it up.

AP: Associated Press

AD: "All Day" Adrian Peterson

 

[Penguin]

I just added ADP at 4.07 of WCOFF Satellite #76 a few minutes ago. He joins Larry Johnson, Chad Johnson & Jevon Walker.

 

[Gravedigger]

Y'all seem so sure of yerselves; but I'll add my tentative comment anyway:

You are all comparing him to RB's consistently going ABOVE him in the draft. He could easily go in the late second round with all those other RB's already off the board.

While I disagree with most here, and think AP is worth of a mid-late 2nd rounder (not believing in the supporting cast of Brown or Green or James or Portis either), I'd like to add the perspective of 'Who would you put ahead of him who is currently getting drafted after him?' I have him slotted as a 2nd rounder with all those guys already off the board. If I don't like AP at that point, and want a RB, my choices are: BarberIII, TJones, Caddy, Lynch, JLewis, and Jacobs. To me, that's almost a no-brainer. Yes, it is swing for the fence mentality. But if you and a top 4 draft slot, and want two stud RB's, I think AP is your absolute best choice. I'd take him before several being drafted before him, and ALL being drafted after him.

Sharing time, terrible O, durability concerns are all very valid. Plan for them. Ride him until he's hurt. Slot him against easy D's only if you'd like. 'Cause when he's healthy on your opponents team and going against the likes of DET a couple times on your backside, I think you'll grow to hate him.

 

[bb7278]

Y'all seem so sure of yerselves; but I'll add my tentative comment anyway:You are all comparing him to RB's consistently going ABOVE him in the draft. He could easily go in the late second round with all those other RB's already off the board.While I disagree with most here, and think AP is worth of a mid-late 2nd rounder (not believing in the supporting cast of Brown or Green or James or Portis either), I'd like to add the perspective of 'Who would you put ahead of him who is currently getting drafted after him?' I have him slotted as a 2nd rounder with all those guys already off the board. If I don't like AP at that point, and want a RB, my choices are: BarberIII, TJones, Caddy, Lynch, JLewis, and Jacobs. To me, that's almost a no-brainer. Yes, it is swing for the fence mentality. But if you and a top 4 draft slot, and want two stud RB's, I think AP is your absolute best choice. I'd take him before several being drafted before him, and ALL being drafted after him.Sharing time, terrible O, durability concerns are all very valid. Plan for them. Ride him until he's hurt. Slot him against easy D's only if you'd like. 'Cause when he's healthy on your opponents team and going against the likes of DET a couple times on your backside, I think you'll grow to hate him.

Plan by getting Chester in the 6th round, Vikes Running FTW

 

[Penguin]

Plan by getting Chester in the 6th round, Vikes Running FTW

He just went in the 8th in the same Satellite that ADP went mid 4th

 

[comfortably numb]

There's a lot of confusion in this thread. I'll clear it up.AP: Associated PressAD: "All Day" Adrian Peterson

I am on the AD bandwagon, I think he is a special kind of talent who landed in a good situation.I understand all the concerns over injury, and running style etc....But in the end talent is talent, and i am not gonna over analyze it.I owned Chester last year, while happy with his output based on his ADP I was disappointed in his TD output (6) in 303 touches.Many people are comparing AD's situation to Deuce and Bush.The big difference (this year) I think will be Chester's ability to get in the end zone. Deuce had 10TD's in 244 carries, and they won games.If Chester can't get into the endzone, and/or the Vikings are losing I think we will see alot more of AD than people expect.For those reasons, I value AD higher this year than most maybe.If AD is your "explosive" back, and can punch it into the endzone better than Chester, I think the percentage of touches will shift dramatically in AD's favor. With that said, I took him last month at 1.10 of a 16 team Dynasty startup league.My logic was, he will be a top 5 pick in 08 drafts, I will hope I can get by in 07 with the rest of the draft, and enter 08 with a STUD.I followed that pick by trading up to from 2.10 to 2.4 to nab Portislayingwithfire:

 

[Routilla]

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

You're right. I'm bumping him up to #2 overall behind LT2. Shazam!

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

You're right. I'm bumping him up to #2 overall behind LT2. Shazam!

Yeah, that's what I was saying Seriously though, why even waste space with a worthless reply like that? I guess if anyone was looking for the definition of trolling we could just refer them to your post. Grow up.

 

[Routilla]

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

You're right. I'm bumping him up to #2 overall behind LT2. Shazam!

Yeah, that's what I was saying Seriously though, why even waste space with a worthless reply like that? I guess if anyone was looking for the definition of trolling we could just refer them to your post. Grow up.

OK Mr. Mature. It's the pre-season and folks are getting riled up about well, the pre-season. AP looked great the other night. So now he's a 2nd rounder according to the OP. I disagree and think he may not be the end all RB that many on here are speaking of(not you of course). I still have reservations about the QB and the WRs when defenses will certainly be stacking the box against the run. Just because I disagree with you it means I need to grow up? I even put the emoticon up a few posts ago to be clear. Maybe you should relax and let the pre-season pass before you start telling people to grow up. Unless of course you're in a pre-season FF league and in that case I will digress because you must be winning your league. Good luck this season!

 

[Biabreakable]

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

You're right. I'm bumping him up to #2 overall behind LT2. Shazam!

If your talking dynasty this is not that unreasonable.LT - getting older but still the best there is.Steven Jackson Larry Johnson or Adrian Peterson. Which guy do you want to build your team around?

 

[jurb26]

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

You're right. I'm bumping him up to #2 overall behind LT2. Shazam!

If your talking dynasty this is not that unreasonable.LT - getting older but still the best there is.Steven Jackson Larry Johnson or Adrian Peterson. Which guy do you want to build your team around?

There is no way in hell I would take Peterson at #2 in dynasty.

 

[thehornet]

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

You're right. I'm bumping him up to #2 overall behind LT2. Shazam!

If your talking dynasty this is not that unreasonable.LT - getting older but still the best there is.Steven Jackson Larry Johnson or Adrian Peterson. Which guy do you want to build your team around?

There is no way in hell I would take Peterson at #2 in dynasty.

as i like your hopes for peterson, he simply is not any where near where LJ and S Jackson are. In time, maybe, and actually very possible. but not yet.

 

[Routilla]

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

You're right. I'm bumping him up to #2 overall behind LT2. Shazam!

If your talking dynasty this is not that unreasonable.LT - getting older but still the best there is.Steven Jackson Larry Johnson or Adrian Peterson. Which guy do you want to build your team around?

Maybe. I would add Addai, Maroney and MJD to that group in no particular order. The OP made no reference to dynasty so I can only assume he was talking redraft. The ability to keep a player for future seasons changes his relative value. But comparing re-draft to dynasty is really comparing apples to oranges. It's like comparing a rookie draft to the entire draft in some cases.

 

[Biabreakable]

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

You're right. I'm bumping him up to #2 overall behind LT2. Shazam!

If your talking dynasty this is not that unreasonable.LT - getting older but still the best there is.Steven Jackson Larry Johnson or Adrian Peterson. Which guy do you want to build your team around?

Maybe. I would add Addai, Maroney and MJD to that group in no particular order. The OP made no reference to dynasty so I can only assume he was talking redraft. The ability to keep a player for future seasons changes his relative value. But comparing re-draft to dynasty is really comparing apples to oranges. It's like comparing a rookie draft to the entire draft in some cases.

Oh I know these guys are talking about redraft. 3rd or 4th round seems reasonable. That is where the good rookie RB have been taken traditionaly for a long time now. It is just that recent years have not had rookie RB produce very well before last year. That trend continues to make people wary of drafting a rookie early even though the trend was broken last year.Just felt your comment was worth responding to from a dynasty perspective as people are still catching up to AD's value there just as they are in redraft here.2nd round would probobly be too high for me to consider AD. 3rd round I was looking at him in recent draft but passed for solid WR. 4th round.. I think I should have taken him over Mark Clayton but I had Clayton ranked higher than him in my predraft. Kind of regret that.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

You're right. I'm bumping him up to #2 overall behind LT2. Shazam!

If your talking dynasty this is not that unreasonable.LT - getting older but still the best there is.Steven Jackson Larry Johnson or Adrian Peterson. Which guy do you want to build your team around?

Maybe. I would add Addai, Maroney and MJD to that group in no particular order. The OP made no reference to dynasty so I can only assume he was talking redraft. The ability to keep a player for future seasons changes his relative value. But comparing re-draft to dynasty is really comparing apples to oranges. It's like comparing a rookie draft to the entire draft in some cases.

Oh I know these guys are talking about redraft. 3rd or 4th round seems reasonable. That is where the good rookie RB have been taken traditionaly for a long time now. It is just that recent years have not had rookie RB produce very well before last year. That trend continues to make people wary of drafting a rookie early even though the trend was broken last year.Just felt your comment was worth responding to from a dynasty perspective as people are still catching up to AD's value there just as they are in redraft here.2nd round would probobly be too high for me to consider AD. 3rd round I was looking at him in recent draft but passed for solid WR. 4th round.. I think I should have taken him over Mark Clayton but I had Clayton ranked higher than him in my predraft. Kind of regret that.

Mark Clayton????

 

[Penguin]

Oh I know these guys are talking about redraft. 3rd or 4th round seems reasonable. That is where the good rookie RB have been taken traditionaly for a long time now. It is just that recent years have not had rookie RB produce very well before last year. That trend continues to make people wary of drafting a rookie early even though the trend was broken last year.Just felt your comment was worth responding to from a dynasty perspective as people are still catching up to AD's value there just as they are in redraft here.2nd round would probobly be too high for me to consider AD. 3rd round I was looking at him in recent draft but passed for solid WR. 4th round.. I think I should have taken him over Mark Clayton but I had Clayton ranked higher than him in my predraft. Kind of regret that.

Clayton has been going in the 7th/8th round, and that's in PPR leagues. He went 8.12 & 7.07 in the two PPR drafts I was in today

 

[JayMan]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

imhoAhman Green

Marion Barber III

that's it.

 

[Routilla]

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?

Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

I would certainly take AP in the range of these players. D Will and MBIII are the only 2 guys that I might take ahead of him depending on my other picks at that point.

 

[GDogg]

He went 3.10 in my 12 team keeper league draft today that only allows players to be kept after round 3...

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

 

[Justloveit]

The "monsters" that F&L used as examples were LT, Priest, LJ, you could add SA to that list as players who helped carry teams to FF championships. All those guys, except LJ, set single season rushing TD records. You guys are now calling AD a potential "monster"? I'm not gonna argue with you that he could reach that calibre of production in a year or two, but this year? I think LT had something like 1200 + 10 as a rookie, yes AD could reach those numbers IF Chester gets benched or injured but that is the BEST possible case scenario for AD owners. The more realistic scenario is that he'll split carries and maybe get more of a work load towards the end of the season. Like I said, spending a top 4 round pick on that sort of risk doesn't make sense to me, not this yr anyway.

This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.

All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIA

None. And it's not even close.

I agree not many, if any of those guys seem enticing at this point, which is why I would not be using a 4th round pick to draft a RB this year. Seems like the value in the 4th round this yr lay with WRs.

 

[Justloveit]

There is an often repeated maxim you'll hear from the staff around here and I find it very true, "You can't win your league in the first few rounds of a draft, but you can lose it."

I'm sorry, but this is one of the biggest myths in fantasy football. It's really just some cool sounding proverb that someone invented without any real statistical backdrop and people like the sound of it and roll with it without really giving it any thought. A good pick in the early rounds can help you just as much as a bad pick in the early rounds can hurt you.This argument came up a few years back with the Priest/LJ vs. LT debate, but I'll go last year since that's more in people's head. This same kind of thing came up last year with the debate about the number 7-8 with Rudi vs. Sjax. Rudi was the safe guy, Sjax the upside guy. We heard it from everyone...."you can't win your league in the 1st round...but you can lose it".In the end, Rudi did exactly what everyone thought he would and put up a nice safe 1500/12. Sjax beat him out by a solid 800 yards and 4 touchdowns, or 104 fantasy points.To put that in perspective, we can take a 1st round bust like Edgerrin James that many people were screaming "lost" them the league and Rudi outscored him by 100 yards and 6 touchdowns, or 46 fantasy points.Now obviously no one player can "actually" win or lose you your league. You can draft Ryan Leaf in the 1st round and win your league, just like you can get LT 12th overall and lose. But what we're really talking about is guys putting you at a significant disadvantage vs. guys putting you at a significant advantage.That said, my point is how can we say that a guy losing you 46 points from the "safe" pick is putting you at a bigger disadvantage than a guy gaining you 104 points from the "safe" pick is putting you at an advantage?To lose as many points from drafting the bust instead of Rudi as you gained from drafting Sjax instead you would've had to take a guy that went for 700yards and 8 TDs. You could've taken Warrick Dunn in the 1st round and still come out ahead of those numbers. To say it again, taking Sjax over Rudi in the first round gained you more points last year than taking Warrick Dunn over Rudi in the 1st round would have lost you.But what makes this worse is that you're trying to apply it to the FIRST FOUR ROUNDS? If that's the case, then unless you have a top 3 pick AND are willing to take Rudi at 3rd overall you're coming out of the first 3 rounds with zero RBs, because after that there are no more "safe" RBs.

Let's stop beating around the bush fellas, I say AP is a 1st round draft pick this year. After all MIN has 2 more pre-season games against vanilla defenses. AP will be a lock for top 5 RB by the end of that last pre-season game, right?

Who cares what kinds of defenses they were playing, "Vanilla" or not? Whatever those defenses were, they put people in the right position and AD got more. Whatever vanilla or non-vanilla defense they were playing on that 43-yard run, there were guys there to stop him for 5 and he beat them. Then a few plays later, there were guys there to stop him for 0.5 and he got 5. This isn't a quarterback that has to read the field that we're talking here, with a RB there are either defenders in the way or there aren't.

As I stated previously, AD could be a once in a generation RB

It's not a matter of "could be". I don't think anyone here is talking about "once in a generation" in terms of there NFL career here. When "once in decade" or "once in a generation" is brought up here people are talking about as a prospect. Nobody was saying those words with Ronnie Brown, or Cedric Benson, or William Green, or TJ Duckett, or Steven Jackson, or any of those other guys that have gone recently. I really only started following the draft in the mid-90's so I can't comment on Sanders/Bo Jackson, but I would guess that if you compiled a list of best prospects, or prospect rankings since that point that Bush and AD would be at the top. I do actually remember something like this from last year where each year a number grade was applied to prospects. It went back only the last 5 years or so but Bush's was quite a bit higher than everyone else's. I imagine AD would fall into that same category.

Once again, i'm not disputing AD's talent or possible future production. I'm talking about THIS yr, and to me his current ADP represents his hype more than his situation. The comparison of Rudi and SJ isn't really a fair one since last yr SJ was slated to be the primary back. If we were talking about a 6th or 7th round pick here then I wouldnt really be disagreeing with you, but a 4th rounder to me seems a little steep considering what needs to happen before AD proves to be value at that point in the draft. P.S-Is the MIKL up and running this yr or what?