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First off, FWP and Addai are not THAT far apart from each other. I think they equal out personally.But..FWP does have a 300+ carry season under his belt and was able to stay healthy. Addai has not had a 300+ carry season yet and did go through some injuries last year, so I think that could be why people would prefer Parker over Addai.Again, I don't think you can lose out with either one of these guys though. JMO.Soaring Eagle said:
That's it in a nutshell. Proven versus prove it.If Addai performs as expected this year, the discussion will be moot next year.
Last year, FWP wasn't picked in the top 6 spots. Very early I got FWP early 3rd round in then right around last year in this time you could get FWP mid 2nd round compared to Addai mid 1st or early.So, there's MUCH more expectations for Addai to improve this year compared to FWP's situation last year.Soaring Eagle said:
I generally agree with this philosophy, but in this particular year, there are very few safe picks after the top 2. You're going to have to pick your risk when it comes to Addai, Alexander, Parker, Westbrook, etc. (not that LJ or Gore don't come with some risk as well). Going with LT, SJ, LJ, Gore as top 4, if you're drafting 5th-6th, you have a tough choice. If you purely want to minimize first-round risk, you can draft Rudi Johnson. However, he has very likely shown his top end totals are 12 TDs and 1500 combined yards. Not bad, but not difference-making, either.So this year, I am more inclined to throw caution to the wind and go with either Addai or Alexander, banking on the idea that Addai can pull the load or Alexander can return to form. Higher risk/reward than I typically like, I admit, but in the middle of the first round, you need to do something a little bit more aggressive or you're playing for third place at best. This year, if I'm in the middle of the first round, I'll take the chance I crash and burn while hoping to get a little lucky rather than just hoping to be competitive.
From what I've heard, Gore is very close to 100% right now and will certainly be OK when the season starts. Over the past week, I've been thinking about this quite a bit, and for me, the choice would be Gore. He has the bigger upside, but he's got to stay healthy and score a few more TDs than last season. Everyone just automatically assumes that Addai's RBBC production can be prorated up by 50% to become 2100 yards and 12 TDs. Well, that Philly Swiss cheese run defense that gave Addai 4 TDs isn't on the schedule, and Indy's OL was terrible in short yardage in 2006 and just lost Tarik Glenn. It's not that Addi couldn't get those numbers or even more, it's just that he hasn't done it, and it's no more risk to assume Gore stays healthy than it is to assume Addai can stay healthy AND productive with the bigger workload.If Gore doesn't fumble a few times and then get pulled early in the year at the goal line, we're not likely having this discussion.Personally, I'm debating LJ vs. Gore vs. Alexander, all in the same group. Addai and Parker are close, but at least today, they're behind this trio.I think league scoring will determine the exact order. Heavy TD leagues would favor LJ and Alexander, PPR would favor Gore.
I am curious as to what you feel the risk is with FWP. I see red flags all over the other 3 guys that you named there, but I really dont see much risk with FWP. I will disclose that I took him with the 5th pick in my draft, so I am biased - but my opinion was made based upon the fact that the other options all had risk, and I felt FWP had very little.The new offense does not concern me, because he is well suited for a more open offense to take advantage of his skill set. The knee does not seem to be any concern at all, and he has not shown himself to be injury-prone thus far. There is no GL back to steal those valuable carries, and he can stay in on 3rd downs. Good OL. Good QB, good WR on the team, so he will not often see 8 in the box. Catches passes, scores long TDs.
Soaring Eagle said:
Personally, no way I pass on Gore if LJ, LJ and SJ are off the board. His hand, from everything I've heard, is an absolute non issue and, because of it, he's managed to stay out of the preseason and will be fresh.
From what I hear, Gore has been chomping at the bit, but the coaches have been holding him back in an effort to keep him fresh for the season. No way they risk getting him hurt now. He is a beast and will be good to go come Week 1...
Yep, it's hit or miss. I don't think first round is the time to take ANY risks at all.
This is what FF is all about. Each person can make up their own mind.I don't agree with many of your points concerning FWP.
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Jason,Other than the injury, my biggest question for Gore is TD production. While it's typically harder to predict than yards, it's still something that Gore has never done particularly well. In fact, I believe you have him projected for 10 total TDs. This is obviously a concern for leagues with a TD emphasis (e.g., 1 pt per 20 yards rush/rec). For these leagues, do you still see Gore as a solid #4, or does Alexander or Addai move alongside or even ahead in your eyes? Or is Gore's upside still enough to entice you?
Fair counter-points. You probably are a whole lot more knowledgeable about the Steelers situation than I am given that you live there and hear about it every day.There was a great article on FBG that was a guest submission about the impact of the Bruce Arians on QBs, and how it could propel Ben to the next level. I found it to be an very insightful submission with a lot of solid data backing up the point. Based upon the fact that I bought into that information, I bumped up all of the Steelers offensive starters a bit, including FWP. I love the versatility that he brings. I think that if used properly, he can be a heck of an offensive weapon. I am banking on Arians using him properly.This is what FF is all about. Each person can make up their own mind.I don't agree with many of your points concerning FWP.
The offense -- I'm not sure how new it is -- does concern me.
He may stay in on 3rd downs, but so far that is not a sure thing.
OL has looked mediocre at best so far. Tomlin and staff are still undecided on the starters, and that hurts continutity.
Good QB prior to bouncing off the pavement last summer, but Ben is not a sure thing.
I'm not sure the Steelers WR scare defenses enough to put 8 in the box. I think you will see this until Ben consistently makes them pay.
Since I live in Pittsburgh, I may be too close to the situation. I may be trying too hard not to be a.
Still, I could live with only one or two of these questions (in my mind, they are questions, maybe not yours), but not with 4 or more.
Honestly there wasn't much love for FWP last year before the draft either.It was all talk about how Staley(or what ever 3rd down back they had at the time) was gonna take goal line carries away from him. Thats probably why he didn't go until the 2nd or even 3rd round last year in most leagues, and why he was such a great value.Soaring Eagle said:
Cadillac was a bust of historic proportions, but unlike Addai, he also was rather pedestrian as a rookie save for those early few games. Addai had roughly 1,400 yards from scrimmage and 8 TDs. In looking at similarity comps; I found 17 rookie RBs that had:*** 1,250 to 1,500 total yards
The Steeler fan inside me is rooting hard for the offense to work, but the FF player inside me recognizes it is far from a sure thing. My biggest concern is the OL. I'm not sold on it at all. For what it's worth, I don't find Parker at 5 an enormous reach. You can -- and have -- made an argument for him there. I suspect his TD numbers will decline even if the offense is effective. I suppose I see the Arians philosophy having one of two effects: failure, meaning the offense struggles; or success, with Ben throwing more TDs vs. getting many of those same TDs on the legs of Parker.Fair counter-points. You probably are a whole lot more knowledgeable about the Steelers situation than I am given that you live there and hear about it every day.There was a great article on FBG that was a guest submission about the impact of the Bruce Arians on QBs, and how it could propel Ben to the next level. I found it to be an very insightful submission with a lot of solid data backing up the point. Based upon the fact that I bought into that information, I bumped up all of the Steelers offensive starters a bit, including FWP. I love the versatility that he brings. I think that if used properly, he can be a heck of an offensive weapon. I am banking on Arians using him properly.This is what FF is all about. Each person can make up their own mind.I don't agree with many of your points concerning FWP.
The offense -- I'm not sure how new it is -- does concern me.
He may stay in on 3rd downs, but so far that is not a sure thing.
OL has looked mediocre at best so far. Tomlin and staff are still undecided on the starters, and that hurts continutity.
Good QB prior to bouncing off the pavement last summer, but Ben is not a sure thing.
I'm not sure the Steelers WR scare defenses enough to put 8 in the box. I think you will see this until Ben consistently makes them pay.
Since I live in Pittsburgh, I may be too close to the situation. I may be trying too hard not to be a
Still, I could live with only one or two of these questions (in my mind, they are questions, maybe not yours), but not with 4 or more.
Exactly. I'm going to be in my first redraft league in about 6 years. My other two leagues are dynasty leagues. You can't wait on a guy to "prove it" in a dynasty league. You have to take a shot on guys...You have to grab the next FWP before he becomes FWP because by then he's on somebody's squad....
Yeah, its all a bit inconclusive. Did you take a look at players who were in a RBBC then went to being THE guy and how they fared; ie Ronnie Brown-types?
Well, of the group above...there weren't too many that fit that bill. Corey Dillon is the most germane, because he didn't get a starting role until partway through his rookie year in Cincy.
I'm from Abilene and watched Rhodes play in high school, so if anything I'd be partial towards him. But watching them last year, I had to say Addai was the better back.
Yeah. I dunno... I've just never looked at my first pick as one you should be taking risks at, especially when you're sitting at like 4 or 5. People like shaun alexander who has legitimately put up monster numbers 4 and 5 consecutive years should be picked ahead of "could be" potential players. Players ahead of Addai in my mind are(obviously LJ, LT, and SJ):SAlex - ran just fine on the foot last year; former mvpFGore - chomping at the bit to monsterize the league; potential MVPBWest - The Bird's O (rushing and passing); Potential MVPI don't doubt Addai can put up good/great numbers but those all have before with no doubts(I don't wish/pray/project injuries).edit: not to mention Addai is the #3a option in Indy
I'm not understanding the Shaun Alexander love this year, but I wouldn't argue against Westbrook and Gore. If this is a PPR league, Reggie Bush should be given serious consideration of Addai, too.
Easy...He's a really prideful guy. He has something to prove again; like when he wanted the rushing title and got it(along with 28TDs). Since his rookie season he's never had less than 14 TD(excluding last year when he only had 7).
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Alexander has more risk than Addai. He ran for 3.6 yards per carry last year and finished as RB#28 despite getting 252 carries (#17 overall). On fewer carries, Addai finished as RB#11. Both Alexander and Addai will get more carries this year, but Alexander is coming off a much lower baseline.
I might suggest you actually try watching a game or two. This statement is either fishing or you don't have a clue.Either way 
Addai is a star in the making. Rhodes was a better than average backup.Stats without substance mean nothing to me. Do you think none of that could have been attributed to Seattle being a injury factory last year???
Agreed. And even with all of those injuries, Alexander had 849 yards in his final 8 games, including the playoffs, even if it was 3.86 ypc during that span (220 carries). Note that all 8 of these games were against defenses in the top 20 against the rush, including 3 in the top 10. Two of these top 10 defense games were SD (31-140-2 TD) and Chicago in the playoffs (26-108-2 TD).Of course, there is risk with Alexander. Will he have the burst and stamina he had (pre-injury and a couple years younger) in 2005?Will the Seattle offensive line be able to stay healthy and be more effective?Will the Seattle offense get close to their 2005 level?While it's foolish to ignore these questions, I believe it might be more foolish to ignore Alexander's track record:From 2001-2005, he scored no fewer than 16 total TDs each season.From 2001-2005, he gained no fewer than 1635 total yards each season.From 2001-2005, he averaged 1770 yards and 19.6 total TDs each season.Including 2006, he still has averaged 1632 yards and 17.5 total TDs each season from 2001-2006.Bypassing a proven performer, albeit with questions, for unknowns with potential is a risky proposition of a different kind.
Sure, it could be. That doesn't mean there's no risk with Alexander this year. Alexander scored 136 points last year. He scored 364 points in 2005. If I had to bet, I'd put my money on him being closer to 136 than 364. The mid-point is 250; I'll take the Under.
I wouldn't call Addai a star in the making. He's more of a guy that happens to be in a great situation.I might suggest you actually try watching a game or two. This statement is either fishing or you don't have a clue.Either way
Addai is a star in the making. Rhodes was a better than average backup.
It also shows that the Colts coaches and QB are smart and keep feeding the ball to players who are being successful in a given game.
Do you realize that including the postseason Addai had 302 carries last season? He totalled 364 touches. And stayed healthy.What injuries did he have last year? Here I'll help. Important thing to notice: Days Out - ZERO.
Some quick math here:So in 20 games last year, including the postseason, we see that Addai had:
You may be right, but Cadillac isn't exactly the best example. While he didn't do much to help his situation, the whole team fell apart last year and he had a TD vulture.It's hard to envision Indy dropping off, while Addai has no comparable TD vulture (although Harrison and Wayne can be quasi-vultures).
You don't have to actually draft a player to scream at all the naysayers. There's never any shortage of I told you so-ers in here.
Or Manning himself (same idea, really), like in 2004 when in the midst of all of those point-fest games (Indy scored 522 points) Edge could only find the end zone 9 times.
That was Edge's fault. Edge was #5 in number of goal-line rushes that season with 21 attempts from inside the 5. He averaged 0.62 yards on those rushes and scored just 6 TDs. Alexander scored 10 TDs on 19 attempts.For the record, Addai wasn't great at the goal line in 2006, either; he had 4 TDs on 17 attempts (1.18 ypc), and Rhodes had 4 TDs on 13 attempts (1.15 ypc). I think part of it is that Indy is just not a very good short-yardage run-blocking team.
It's all about the track record.
