“Rookie Fever”s Red-Headed Stepchild: “Early Anointing”. (2 Viewers)

[TheWinz]

Najee = 225-250 touches, 8-10 TD's, 1100 total yards, RB24

Any naysayers care to throw out some numbers?

100 touches 340 yards 3 TDs
He’s due to get injured

Oh man! At least give him 430 yards on those 100 touches. That's his lifetime Yards per touch.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That's his lifetime Yards per touch.

Oh sure, when Najee does it he’s “a steady contributor”, but when I do it I get called a creep and asked to leave the Applebees.

Seems unfair.

 

[TheWinz]

That's his lifetime Yards per touch.

Oh sure, when Najee does it he’s “a steady contributor”, but when I do it I get called a creep and asked to leave the Applebees.

Seems unfair.

Q: How do you know the California State Police are seriously enforcing the Speed Limits into San Francisco.
A: For the first offense, they give you two 49ers tickets. If you get stopped a second time, they make you use them.

 

[JohnnyU]

That's his lifetime Yards per touch.

Oh sure, when Najee does it he’s “a steady contributor”, but when I do it I get called a creep and asked to leave the Applebees.

Seems unfair.

Q: How do you know the California State Police are seriously enforcing the Speed Limits into San Francisco.
A: For the first offense, they give you two 49ers tickets. If you get stopped a second time, they make you use them.

For a 3rd offense you are forced to watch Chips reruns from beginning to end.

 

[TheWinz]

That's his lifetime Yards per touch.

Oh sure, when Najee does it he’s “a steady contributor”, but when I do it I get called a creep and asked to leave the Applebees.

Seems unfair.

Q: How do you know the California State Police are seriously enforcing the Speed Limits into San Francisco.
A: For the first offense, they give you two 49ers tickets. If you get stopped a second time, they make you use them.

For a 3rd offense you are forced to watch Chips reruns from beginning to end.

Estrada or nada

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That's his lifetime Yards per touch.

Oh sure, when Najee does it he’s “a steady contributor”, but when I do it I get called a creep and asked to leave the Applebees.

Seems unfair.

Q: How do you know the California State Police are seriously enforcing the Speed Limits into San Francisco.
A: For the first offense, they give you two 49ers tickets. If you get stopped a second time, they make you use them.

For a 3rd offense you are forced to watch Chips reruns from beginning to end.

1. Rude
2. Extra rude
3. CHiPs ruled. Don’t front like you didn’t watch that show.

 

[Deamon]

Which of course is why they let go a 4K+ 35:12 Darnold, and *moved up* in the draft to take JJM, and have spent this entire offseason praising JJM’s work ethic while giving him more and more workload so he can expand the playbook.

To be fair, when the Vikings moved up to get JJM, they had no idea the Bears would release Rypien 4 months later. However, they are the dumbest organization on the planet because this past January they released Rypien exposing him to every NFL team. Lucky for them nobody else wanted their new franchise QB and they were able to sign him to the practice squad later.

Thank you.

I’m reasonably certain he was being sarcastic.

Nah

 

[Deamon]

Ah, no way! Tell Tim I say hi.

Wait... are you Brett Rypien?

His cousin

 

[Deamon]

Not Shtick. You'll see.

I give this a .0000001% chance of happening.

Reports out of camp are that JJM looks great, so I’m not sure what you’re basing any of this on. It does read like a schtick.

Only way JJM isn't the starter is if he gets injured.

I guess we will see.

So the spirit of this topic is to have thoughtful discourse on which young players we feel are anointed too early and more specifically *why*.

If you’re you’re going to make this assertion in here, don’t play this cat & mouse game BS with vague hints at your conclusion. Tell us who you believe will usurp the presumed incumbent and why, or kindly stop trolling what’s been a fun exchange.

Not trolling. Brett will be the starter.

I played golf with his dad a few months ago. I don't even think Mark thinks that Brett has any shot at being the starter.

Ah, no way! Tell Tim I say hi.

Oops, I meant his uncle!

To him too then haha.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Najee as the early down banger & Hampton as a COP, receiver, breather back in his 1st year.

And as others have suggested, if Hampton struggles to protect the rock or pass protect Herbert, he’ll have a tough time staying in the mix.

Not saying that’s to be expected, I’m just saying it’s on the spectrum of possibilities and we just don’t know.

Another thing is if I have a vet signed for only one year and a rookie I control for up to 5 Years, I might be inclined to rack up the mileage on the old beater and preserve the mileage on the younger model for the long run. But as you said, there is always a range of outcomes.

 

[Ilov80s]

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Najee as the early down banger & Hampton as a COP, receiver, breather back in his 1st year.

And as others have suggested, if Hampton struggles to protect the rock or pass protect Herbert, he’ll have a tough time staying in the mix.

Not saying that’s to be expected, I’m just saying it’s on the spectrum of possibilities and we just don’t know.

Another thing is if I have a vet signed for only one year and a rookie I control for up to 5 Years, I might be inclined to rack up the mileage on the old beater and preserve the mileage on the younger model for the long run. But as you said, there is always a range of outcomes.

For sure but they aren't out for a Sunday drive to Church. This is the NFL. Daytona 500. F1. Slow and plodding can cost you yards, first downs, touchdowns, games. If Najee is leaving yards on the field and Hampton is making explosive plays, it's going to be hard to take an eagle eyed 5 year view of things. You might not be there in 5 years anyway if you aren't winning now.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

For sure but they aren't out for a Sunday drive to Church. This is the NFL. Daytona 500. F1. Slow and plodding can cost you yards, first downs, touchdowns, games. If Najee is leaving yards on the field and Hampton is making explosive plays, it's going to be hard to take an eagle eyed 5 year view of things. You might not be there in 5 years anyway if you aren't winning now.

Find someone who loves you as much as Harbaugh loves him some slow & plodding RBs.

If you went to a police sketch artist and described the perfect Harbaugh RB, he’d draw you a picture of Najee Harris. I’m just sayin.

Harbaugh would look at it like

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Not trolling. Brett will be the starter.

You mean the scrub who has more years in the league than starts?
The guy with twice as many INT's as TD's?
This guy?

More wins that JJM has.

is that you Brett ?

All of this energy and Brett Rypien gets beat out by Max Brosmer and got cut by the Vikings today.

 

[TheWinz]

Not trolling. Brett will be the starter.

You mean the scrub who has more years in the league than starts?
The guy with twice as many INT's as TD's?
This guy?

More wins that JJM has.

is that you Brett ?

All of this energy and Brett Rypien gets beat out by Max Brosmer and got cut by the Vikings today.

In all fairness to @Deamon he didn't say which team Brett will start for (or maybe he did, I didn't look upthread).

 

[Chaka]

Not trolling. Brett will be the starter.

You mean the scrub who has more years in the league than starts?
The guy with twice as many INT's as TD's?
This guy?

More wins that JJM has.

is that you Brett ?

All of this energy and Brett Rypien gets beat out by Max Brosmer and got cut by the Vikings today.

That's exactly what Rypien wanted to happen. Now he can just sit back and let the bidding war unfold.

 

[Deamon]

Not trolling. Brett will be the starter.

You mean the scrub who has more years in the league than starts?
The guy with twice as many INT's as TD's?
This guy?

More wins that JJM has.

is that you Brett ?

All of this energy and Brett Rypien gets beat out by Max Brosmer and got cut by the Vikings today.

That's exactly what Rypien wanted to happen. Now he can just sit back and let the bidding war unfold.

Exactly. He'll start somewhere. F the vikings.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I agree with the original premise of this thread, but an additional concern that I'm noticing this year is that everyone seems to have gotten the memo that rookies are a good bet.

Traditionally, it's been a smart strategy to get a bunch of rookie lottery tickets and hope a couple pay out. Last year I took a late-round fliers on BTJ (and Adi Mitchell; can't win 'em all), and also picked up Tracy and Irving off the WW. But that strategy becomes a lot riskier when you have to draft those rookies to be in your starting lineup right away.

Jeanty was always going to be a first rounder (and I'm probably out at that ADP), but I fear it may become much harder to find value in the likes of Hampton, MacMillan, Treyveon and now probably Croskey-Merritt.

 

[Ilov80s]

I agree with the original premise of this thread, but an additional concern that I'm noticing this year is that everyone seems to have gotten the memo that rookies are a good bet.

Traditionally, it's been a smart strategy to get a bunch of rookie lottery tickets and hope a couple pay out. Last year I took a late-round fliers on BTJ (and Adi Mitchell; can't win 'em all), and also picked up Tracy and Irving off the WW. But that strategy becomes a lot riskier when you have to draft those rookies to be in your starting lineup right away.

Jeanty was always going to be a first rounder (and I'm probably out at that ADP), but I fear it may become much harder to find value in the likes of Hampton, MacMillan, Treyveon and now probably Croskey-Merritt.

Yes the super rookie value that used to exist is gone but it doesn't mean they are overpriced- might just be finally priced correctly. It used to be that mobile QBs were a cheat code but people caught on and their ADP shot up but I don't think it ever became unreasonable, it just got them ranked where they should have been all along. Maybe

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I agree with the original premise of this thread, but an additional concern that I'm noticing this year is that everyone seems to have gotten the memo that rookies are a good bet.

Traditionally, it's been a smart strategy to get a bunch of rookie lottery tickets and hope a couple pay out. Last year I took a late-round fliers on BTJ (and Adi Mitchell; can't win 'em all), and also picked up Tracy and Irving off the WW. But that strategy becomes a lot riskier when you have to draft those rookies to be in your starting lineup right away.

Jeanty was always going to be a first rounder (and I'm probably out at that ADP), but I fear it may become much harder to find value in the likes of Hampton, MacMillan, Treyveon and now probably Croskey-Merritt.

Yes the super rookie value that used to exist is gone but it doesn't mean they are overpriced- might just be finally priced correctly. It used to be that mobile QBs were a cheat code but people caught on and their ADP shot up but I don't think it ever became unreasonable, it just got them ranked where they should have been all along. Maybe

People who drafted Fields, Richardson and Trey Lance in recent years over in the corner saying, "Hi"

 

[Ilov80s]

I agree with the original premise of this thread, but an additional concern that I'm noticing this year is that everyone seems to have gotten the memo that rookies are a good bet.

Traditionally, it's been a smart strategy to get a bunch of rookie lottery tickets and hope a couple pay out. Last year I took a late-round fliers on BTJ (and Adi Mitchell; can't win 'em all), and also picked up Tracy and Irving off the WW. But that strategy becomes a lot riskier when you have to draft those rookies to be in your starting lineup right away.

Jeanty was always going to be a first rounder (and I'm probably out at that ADP), but I fear it may become much harder to find value in the likes of Hampton, MacMillan, Treyveon and now probably Croskey-Merritt.

Yes the super rookie value that used to exist is gone but it doesn't mean they are overpriced- might just be finally priced correctly. It used to be that mobile QBs were a cheat code but people caught on and their ADP shot up but I don't think it ever became unreasonable, it just got them ranked where they should have been all along. Maybe

People who drafted Fields, Richardson and Trey Lance in recent years over in the corner saying, "Hi"

People who drafted Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Jalen Hurts say "sup". And as for FIelds, he was a QB1 in ppg in 2022 and 2023.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I agree with the original premise of this thread, but an additional concern that I'm noticing this year is that everyone seems to have gotten the memo that rookies are a good bet.

Traditionally, it's been a smart strategy to get a bunch of rookie lottery tickets and hope a couple pay out. Last year I took a late-round fliers on BTJ (and Adi Mitchell; can't win 'em all), and also picked up Tracy and Irving off the WW. But that strategy becomes a lot riskier when you have to draft those rookies to be in your starting lineup right away.

Jeanty was always going to be a first rounder (and I'm probably out at that ADP), but I fear it may become much harder to find value in the likes of Hampton, MacMillan, Treyveon and now probably Croskey-Merritt.

Yes the super rookie value that used to exist is gone but it doesn't mean they are overpriced- might just be finally priced correctly. It used to be that mobile QBs were a cheat code but people caught on and their ADP shot up but I don't think it ever became unreasonable, it just got them ranked where they should have been all along. Maybe

People who drafted Fields, Richardson and Trey Lance in recent years over in the corner saying, "Hi"

People who drafted Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Jalen Hurts say "sup". And as for FIelds, he was a QB1 in ppg in 2022 and 2023.

And then there are the Sam Howell drafters, wandering aimlessly down the road wondering what the heck is even happening. How is this 3 teams in 3 years?

 

[Ilov80s]

I agree with the original premise of this thread, but an additional concern that I'm noticing this year is that everyone seems to have gotten the memo that rookies are a good bet.

Traditionally, it's been a smart strategy to get a bunch of rookie lottery tickets and hope a couple pay out. Last year I took a late-round fliers on BTJ (and Adi Mitchell; can't win 'em all), and also picked up Tracy and Irving off the WW. But that strategy becomes a lot riskier when you have to draft those rookies to be in your starting lineup right away.

Jeanty was always going to be a first rounder (and I'm probably out at that ADP), but I fear it may become much harder to find value in the likes of Hampton, MacMillan, Treyveon and now probably Croskey-Merritt.

Yes the super rookie value that used to exist is gone but it doesn't mean they are overpriced- might just be finally priced correctly. It used to be that mobile QBs were a cheat code but people caught on and their ADP shot up but I don't think it ever became unreasonable, it just got them ranked where they should have been all along. Maybe

People who drafted Fields, Richardson and Trey Lance in recent years over in the corner saying, "Hi"

People who drafted Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Jalen Hurts say "sup". And as for FIelds, he was a QB1 in ppg in 2022 and 2023.

And then there are the Sam Howell drafters, wandering aimlessly down the road wondering what the heck is even happening. How is this 3 teams in 3 years?

Yeah there is no guarantee taking a mobile QB in round 7 is going to pay off. There’s no guarantee taking a rookie WR in round 7 is going to payoff. There’s no guarantee a veteran RB in round 7 will payoff. If they were highly likely to hit, they wouldn’t be available in the 7th round.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I agree with the original premise of this thread, but an additional concern that I'm noticing this year is that everyone seems to have gotten the memo that rookies are a good bet.

Traditionally, it's been a smart strategy to get a bunch of rookie lottery tickets and hope a couple pay out. Last year I took a late-round fliers on BTJ (and Adi Mitchell; can't win 'em all), and also picked up Tracy and Irving off the WW. But that strategy becomes a lot riskier when you have to draft those rookies to be in your starting lineup right away.

Jeanty was always going to be a first rounder (and I'm probably out at that ADP), but I fear it may become much harder to find value in the likes of Hampton, MacMillan, Treyveon and now probably Croskey-Merritt.

Yes the super rookie value that used to exist is gone but it doesn't mean they are overpriced- might just be finally priced correctly. It used to be that mobile QBs were a cheat code but people caught on and their ADP shot up but I don't think it ever became unreasonable, it just got them ranked where they should have been all along. Maybe

People who drafted Fields, Richardson and Trey Lance in recent years over in the corner saying, "Hi"

People who drafted Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Jalen Hurts say "sup". And as for FIelds, he was a QB1 in ppg in 2022 and 2023.

I get your point, but I wasn't saying that running QBs aren't good, or are never worth drafting. My point was that we went from running QBs being the hipster Konami Code to people overdrafting any QB who was a halfway decent runner, regardless of how good of a passer/real-life QB they were. Lance and Richardson were the apotheosis of that trend. Yeah, Fields put up some good numbers, but he was never a set-it-and-forget-it QB1, and that's what he was being drafted as a couple years ago.

I worry we're seeing a similar trend with rookies, where people are overinvesting in their upside. I really like a lot of the rookies coming up this year, and I want to draft a bunch of them. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't scared as hell to be relying on them as my RB1 or WR2. Which is not to say I won't end up doing it!

 

[Ilov80s]

I agree with the original premise of this thread, but an additional concern that I'm noticing this year is that everyone seems to have gotten the memo that rookies are a good bet.

Traditionally, it's been a smart strategy to get a bunch of rookie lottery tickets and hope a couple pay out. Last year I took a late-round fliers on BTJ (and Adi Mitchell; can't win 'em all), and also picked up Tracy and Irving off the WW. But that strategy becomes a lot riskier when you have to draft those rookies to be in your starting lineup right away.

Jeanty was always going to be a first rounder (and I'm probably out at that ADP), but I fear it may become much harder to find value in the likes of Hampton, MacMillan, Treyveon and now probably Croskey-Merritt.

Yes the super rookie value that used to exist is gone but it doesn't mean they are overpriced- might just be finally priced correctly. It used to be that mobile QBs were a cheat code but people caught on and their ADP shot up but I don't think it ever became unreasonable, it just got them ranked where they should have been all along. Maybe

People who drafted Fields, Richardson and Trey Lance in recent years over in the corner saying, "Hi"

People who drafted Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Jalen Hurts say "sup". And as for FIelds, he was a QB1 in ppg in 2022 and 2023.

I get your point, but I wasn't saying that running QBs aren't good, or are never worth drafting. My point was that we went from running QBs being the hipster Konami Code to people overdrafting any QB who was a halfway decent runner, regardless of how good of a passer/real-life QB they were. Lance and Richardson were the apotheosis of that trend. Yeah, Fields put up some good numbers, but he was never a set-it-and-forget-it QB1, and that's what he was being drafted as a couple years ago.

I worry we're seeing a similar trend with rookies, where people are overinvesting in their upside. I really like a lot of the rookies coming up this year, and I want to draft a bunch of them. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't scared as hell to be relying on them as my RB1 or WR2. Which is not to say I won't end up doing it!

I totally get that and yes some of the rookies and mobile QBs will get overdrafted and bust. But that is just generally true for all types of players. At least mobile QBs and rookies have major upside. What is the hit rate of non-rookie WRs and RBs when we get into rounds 4,5,6, etc.? You are right there is a tipping point where certain archetypes can become overvalued and other guys become values. Where it is, I don't know. Last year according to Fantasy Pros data, of the 14 players most rostered on championship teams, 5 of them were rookies. There were only 2 QBs on that list, Lamar and Jayden. So at least for last year, the data seems to point to still wanting to be aggressive with those players.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I agree with the original premise of this thread, but an additional concern that I'm noticing this year is that everyone seems to have gotten the memo that rookies are a good bet.

Traditionally, it's been a smart strategy to get a bunch of rookie lottery tickets and hope a couple pay out. Last year I took a late-round fliers on BTJ (and Adi Mitchell; can't win 'em all), and also picked up Tracy and Irving off the WW. But that strategy becomes a lot riskier when you have to draft those rookies to be in your starting lineup right away.

Jeanty was always going to be a first rounder (and I'm probably out at that ADP), but I fear it may become much harder to find value in the likes of Hampton, MacMillan, Treyveon and now probably Croskey-Merritt.

Yes the super rookie value that used to exist is gone but it doesn't mean they are overpriced- might just be finally priced correctly. It used to be that mobile QBs were a cheat code but people caught on and their ADP shot up but I don't think it ever became unreasonable, it just got them ranked where they should have been all along. Maybe

People who drafted Fields, Richardson and Trey Lance in recent years over in the corner saying, "Hi"

People who drafted Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Jalen Hurts say "sup". And as for FIelds, he was a QB1 in ppg in 2022 and 2023.

I get your point, but I wasn't saying that running QBs aren't good, or are never worth drafting. My point was that we went from running QBs being the hipster Konami Code to people overdrafting any QB who was a halfway decent runner, regardless of how good of a passer/real-life QB they were. Lance and Richardson were the apotheosis of that trend. Yeah, Fields put up some good numbers, but he was never a set-it-and-forget-it QB1, and that's what he was being drafted as a couple years ago.

I worry we're seeing a similar trend with rookies, where people are overinvesting in their upside. I really like a lot of the rookies coming up this year, and I want to draft a bunch of them. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't scared as hell to be relying on them as my RB1 or WR2. Which is not to say I won't end up doing it!

I totally get that and yes some of the rookies and mobile QBs will get overdrafted and bust. But that is just generally true for all types of players. At least mobile QBs and rookies have major upside. What is the hit rate of non-rookie WRs and RBs when we get into rounds 4,5,6, etc.? You are right there is a tipping point where certain archetypes can become overvalued and other guys become values. Where it is, I don't know. Last year according to Fantasy Pros data, of the 14 players most rostered on championship teams, 5 of them were rookies. There were only 2 QBs on that list, Lamar and Jayden. So at least for last year, the data seems to point to still wanting to be aggressive with those players.

I came of age professionally during the dot-com bubble, so my antennae are always up when I see "dumb money" chasing last year's trend (housing bubble, crypto, etc). I don't think we reached the dumb money stage of drafting rookies last year. I fear we may be heading toward it this year.

But you could totally be right. Maybe my fears aren't justified (or are premature). I would love nothing better than to come away from this draft with a bench full of rookies. But I would not want to come away from my draft with, say, Hampton, Henderson and MacMillan in my starting lineup. Not because I think it's impossible for them to justify their ADP, but because I wouldn't want my season to depend on them doing so.

By the way, WR is particularly tricky because there are so many veteran WRs going in the midrounds who also scare the hell out of me (Adams, McLaurin, DK, Worthy, etc). Maybe in those cases it is smarter to take the rookies with upside? Or maybe I focus on RBs and onesies in those rounds and then take a bunch of WR fliers late? Still figuring out my draft strategy

 

[Ilov80s]

I agree with the original premise of this thread, but an additional concern that I'm noticing this year is that everyone seems to have gotten the memo that rookies are a good bet.

Traditionally, it's been a smart strategy to get a bunch of rookie lottery tickets and hope a couple pay out. Last year I took a late-round fliers on BTJ (and Adi Mitchell; can't win 'em all), and also picked up Tracy and Irving off the WW. But that strategy becomes a lot riskier when you have to draft those rookies to be in your starting lineup right away.

Jeanty was always going to be a first rounder (and I'm probably out at that ADP), but I fear it may become much harder to find value in the likes of Hampton, MacMillan, Treyveon and now probably Croskey-Merritt.

Yes the super rookie value that used to exist is gone but it doesn't mean they are overpriced- might just be finally priced correctly. It used to be that mobile QBs were a cheat code but people caught on and their ADP shot up but I don't think it ever became unreasonable, it just got them ranked where they should have been all along. Maybe

People who drafted Fields, Richardson and Trey Lance in recent years over in the corner saying, "Hi"

People who drafted Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Jalen Hurts say "sup". And as for FIelds, he was a QB1 in ppg in 2022 and 2023.

I get your point, but I wasn't saying that running QBs aren't good, or are never worth drafting. My point was that we went from running QBs being the hipster Konami Code to people overdrafting any QB who was a halfway decent runner, regardless of how good of a passer/real-life QB they were. Lance and Richardson were the apotheosis of that trend. Yeah, Fields put up some good numbers, but he was never a set-it-and-forget-it QB1, and that's what he was being drafted as a couple years ago.

I worry we're seeing a similar trend with rookies, where people are overinvesting in their upside. I really like a lot of the rookies coming up this year, and I want to draft a bunch of them. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't scared as hell to be relying on them as my RB1 or WR2. Which is not to say I won't end up doing it!

I totally get that and yes some of the rookies and mobile QBs will get overdrafted and bust. But that is just generally true for all types of players. At least mobile QBs and rookies have major upside. What is the hit rate of non-rookie WRs and RBs when we get into rounds 4,5,6, etc.? You are right there is a tipping point where certain archetypes can become overvalued and other guys become values. Where it is, I don't know. Last year according to Fantasy Pros data, of the 14 players most rostered on championship teams, 5 of them were rookies. There were only 2 QBs on that list, Lamar and Jayden. So at least for last year, the data seems to point to still wanting to be aggressive with those players.

I came of age professionally during the dot-com bubble, so my antennae are always up when I see "dumb money" chasing last year's trend (housing bubble, crypto, etc). I don't think we reached the dumb money stage of drafting rookies last year. I fear we may be heading toward it this year.

But you could totally be right. Maybe my fears aren't justified (or are premature). I would love nothing better than to come away from this draft with a bench full of rookies. But I would not want to come away from my draft with, say, Hampton, Henderson and MacMillan in my starting lineup. Not because I think it's impossible for them to justify their ADP, but because I wouldn't want my season to depend on them doing so.

By the way, WR is particularly tricky because there are so many veteran WRs going in the midrounds who also scare the hell out of me (Adams, McLaurin, DK, Worthy, etc). Maybe in those cases it is smarter to take the rookies with upside? Or maybe I focus on RBs and onesies in those rounds and then take a bunch of WR fliers late? Still figuring out my draft strategy

I can totally understand that. I was saw the amount of money being spent on AI has exceeded American consumer spending despite there currently being potentially no conceivable pathway forward for them turning a profit. Surely there is a fantasy football lesson or two there.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I can totally understand that. I was saw the amount of money being spent on AI has exceeded American consumer spending despite there currently being potentially no conceivable pathway forward for them turning a profit. Surely there is a fantasy football lesson or two there.

Yes and one consequence of that is that you can be "right" at the macro level while still getting burned at the micro. AI will almost certainly transform society. But that doesn't mean your AI company will go anywhere. In fact, a lot of the late money that gets invested into the space will basically be loaded straight into a furnace and set on fire

Similarly, rookies are having an outsized impact both on the NFL and fantasy. But in the coming years a lot of individual fantasy players who are being told by the "experts" to draft rookies will screw themselves by overdrafting guys who don't pan out