“Rookie Fever”s Red-Headed Stepchild: “Early Anointing”. (1 Viewer)

[Bronco Billy]

Some here are acting like 1st round draft capital for a RB guarantees you a stud. Here are the 1st rounders drafted since 2010 (who have actually played a down in the NFL):

2023​	Bijan Robinson
2023​	Jahmyr Gibbs
2021​	Najee Harris
2021​	Travis Etienne
2020​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2019​	Josh Jacobs
2018​	Saquon Barkley
2018​	Rashaad Penny
2018​	Sony Michel
2017​	Leonard Fournette
2017​	Christian McCaffrey
2016​	Ezekiel Elliott
2015​	Todd Gurley
2015​	Melvin Gordon
2012​	Trent Richardson
2012​	Doug Martin
2012​	David Wilson
2011​	Mark Ingram
2010​	C.J. Spiller
2010​	Ryan Mathews
2010​	Jahvid Best

At best, it’s barely more than a 50/50 proposition. Harris is a proven pro RB. Hampton remains to be seen, and some of those guys who didn’t become studs had better scouting reports/pro projections than Hampton has.

I’m not sure where the certainty some have that Hampton sends Harris to backup status is coming from.

 

[Bri]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

Fade Pittman, not Warren.

Can you elaborate?

Pittman obviously had a down year, but played through a broken back. He's only 27, 28 at some point this season. I think the biggest knock on any of the Indy pass catchers is the QB situation. I have actually thought Pittman was an amazing value this off-season.

I don't even necessarily mean to say "fade" Warren. His cost for the upside is fine. But if you're asking me to look into my crystal ball and who didn't do much as a rookie: He seems like a candidate. I certainly believe in the talent. He's someone I've targeted and will continue to target. Especially if he has a quiet rookie season.

Yes. Pittman got an awful lot of targets before he got hurt.
There's been a few young Colts WRs and they never get the targets or even that shining bright potential with sparks and other cliches.

There is so much Downs love this year and I'm the outlier wondering if they all forgot how it's gone in recent years.
I think missing here is Jonathan Taylor and what at times was a contest with the RB for their rival. Henry got a 1000 carries and they were determined to get JT 1000. They nailed a drafted OL and would run behind him and there was a real lot of back n forth with Henry competition.
All that running plus Pittman's many targets left scraps for the others. We often talked of some young WR getting a few deep passes to make the bye week cover.
Pittman is the only alpha. The others are not bringing confidence on 3rd and 7 against a top corner.

Daniel Jones has been a failure and then look at that and then pfff. A fair amount think he's going to have his day in Indy and finally out things together.

The Colts need a point guard so bad right now. They need to ignore any expectations and spread it around and include everyone then they'll have a vaunted passing attack. It can't feel like oh btw we'll throw to this guy. Idk that JT can still get 1000 carries. He can be very good but his age...idk.

Warren can definitely be an alpha. If Pittman isn't as he once was then there will be a void they need filled and definitely can see that. I expect Pittman to be his old self though and ...the Colts haven't been some fun FF offense since Luck. There's too much love for them this offseason. I'll take one and see what shakes out but ...it's too strong for my liking.

 

[Ilov80s]

Some here are acting like 1st round draft capital for a RB guarantees you a stud. Here are the 1st rounders drafted since 2010 (who have actually played a down in the NFL):

2023​	Bijan Robinson
2023​	Jahmyr Gibbs
2021​	Najee Harris
2021​	Travis Etienne
2020​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2019​	Josh Jacobs
2018​	Saquon Barkley
2018​	Rashaad Penny
2018​	Sony Michel
2017​	Leonard Fournette
2017​	Christian McCaffrey
2016​	Ezekiel Elliott
2015​	Todd Gurley
2015​	Melvin Gordon
2012​	Trent Richardson
2012​	Doug Martin
2012​	David Wilson
2011​	Mark Ingram
2010​	C.J. Spiller
2010​	Ryan Mathews
2010​	Jahvid Best

At best, it’s barely more than a 50/50 proposition. Harris is a proven pro RB. Hampton remains to be seen, and some of those guys who didn’t become studs had better scouting reports/pro projections than Hampton has.

I’m not sure where the certainty some have that Hampton sends Harris to backup status is coming from.

I think if you listen to the fantasy talk, it's generaly expected to be a split backfield. I think most agree Najee is likely to be very involved, especially early. However, Hampton presents a big enough upside that many are willing to take the risk year 1. As for rookie RBs becoming studs, sure it's like 50% but that blows away the odds of any other position or round. Gurley, Gordon, Zeke, CMC, Saquon, Bijan, Gibbs. Those guys are ultimate difference makers on fantasy teams and show the kind of huge ceiling you can get if a 1st round RB hits. But I agree in redraft, we should not expect Hampton to come out and be dominant right away.

 

[Bri]

The Titans have fourth round WRs and a TE that a good amount of people like for the long haul not for redraft.
They're still fourth rounders.
Also UDFAs and some tired veterans.

They've rarely hit on a top WR prospect or a free agent WR. They have been best ever type with landing top RBs. They make one of them the focus and don't need huge production from the WRs. Value picks and wise spending is probably fine then.

They don't have a star RB and now they just look like a garage sale offense. Borgonzi can go home to his wife and ask "guess what I paid for this player."

This might work if Cam Ward was going to be Lamar but by many accounts he doesn't run enough to remind us of Vick or Lamar. Maybe if Ridley was anything other than the rock solid WR2 he's been his whole career there'd be more promise.

Ya know what fourth round WRs play like? 4th round WRs.
I'll give ya that some Titan will definitely exceed expectations. It's ripe (or awful) to have that happen so there's definitely some fun to guessing which one but otherwise...yeah I'm not buying it. We'll have to wait for year 2 from Ward and hope they add a top WR in the draft. (It'll probably be a tackle and another thread nother time)

Yeah they're my team n all but they're a good team this year to start projections with a get some reality- maybe even after you do 10 teams, come back n revisit.

You can love Gunnar, sure, but they won't throw to the TE enough to support two so he'd have to be the main one.
Lockett has been a fun player but how old is he? How old is Ridley? It's a bit much to expect some increase in production at a certain age isn't it?

They're absolutely loaded with types we warn about in FF. Oft injured RB, scat back with a lions share...on and on.

When I get all excited about a rookie, I like to simply re-think their round they were drafted in. It gives me some grounding here. A quick search for others in that round or just remember some and I feel like I'm whole again.

Jeanty has been a CFB story for a while and yeah he may be a day one star. There may be 2-3 but there's not going to be 10-20 great rookies lighting up FF. History tells us this. At best most good rookies will be bye week covers, maybe an injury happens and now they're a fine starter. There has never been a ton of greatness on day one. This grounds me too.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Some here are acting like 1st round draft capital for a RB guarantees you a stud. Here are the 1st rounders drafted since 2010 (who have actually played a down in the NFL):

2023​	Bijan Robinson
2023​	Jahmyr Gibbs
2021​	Najee Harris
2021​	Travis Etienne
2020​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2019​	Josh Jacobs
2018​	Saquon Barkley
2018​	Rashaad Penny
2018​	Sony Michel
2017​	Leonard Fournette
2017​	Christian McCaffrey
2016​	Ezekiel Elliott
2015​	Todd Gurley
2015​	Melvin Gordon
2012​	Trent Richardson
2012​	Doug Martin
2012​	David Wilson
2011​	Mark Ingram
2010​	C.J. Spiller
2010​	Ryan Mathews
2010​	Jahvid Best

At best, it’s barely more than a 50/50 proposition. Harris is a proven pro RB. Hampton remains to be seen, and some of those guys who didn’t become studs had better scouting reports/pro projections than Hampton has.

I’m not sure where the certainty some have that Hampton sends Harris to backup status is coming from.

We aren't guaranteeing Hampton is a stud. We are saying the first round draft capital brings a ton of upside. CEH had upside being a first rounder in a great offense but he just sucked as a player. It happens.


Bijan was 58-1463-8
Gibbs was 52-1261-11, and elite down the stretch when the money is won
Najee was 74-1667-10 (never caught more than 41 since though)
Etienne was injured
CEH was 36-1100-5 - admittedly disappointing but still a RB2
Barkley was 91-2024-15
Penny was 9-494-2 - total bust
Michel was 7-981-6 in 13 GP. - definitely not a league winner but usable at times - was elite in the NFL playoffs
Fournette was 36-1342-10
CMC was 80-1086-7 - He had Jonathan Stewart playing ahead of him and Cam Newton running a lot. This is probably a good comparison for Najee backers
Elliott was 32-1994-16
Gurley was 21-1294-10 in 13 GP.
Gordon was 33-833-0 - Bad rookie year and broke out in year 2
Richardson was 51-1317-12 - Ended up total bust but great rookie season
Martin was 49-1926-12 - Elite
Wilson was 4-392-5 - bust

I'm tired of looking up stats but we've gone back 13 years at this point. If we could draw Hampton's rookie season out of a hat to match one of these, which would you take or not take? The no's for me are Penny, Gordon, and Wilson. The meh is Michel but I'll call him a no too. The Yes's are Bijan, Gibbs, Najee, CEH, Barkley, Fournette, CMC, Zeke, Gurley, Richardson and Martin. So 11 yes and 4 no. That's way more than a 50/50 proposition!

 

[Bronco Billy]

Some here are acting like 1st round draft capital for a RB guarantees you a stud. Here are the 1st rounders drafted since 2010 (who have actually played a down in the NFL):

2023​	Bijan Robinson
2023​	Jahmyr Gibbs
2021​	Najee Harris
2021​	Travis Etienne
2020​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2019​	Josh Jacobs
2018​	Saquon Barkley
2018​	Rashaad Penny
2018​	Sony Michel
2017​	Leonard Fournette
2017​	Christian McCaffrey
2016​	Ezekiel Elliott
2015​	Todd Gurley
2015​	Melvin Gordon
2012​	Trent Richardson
2012​	Doug Martin
2012​	David Wilson
2011​	Mark Ingram
2010​	C.J. Spiller
2010​	Ryan Mathews
2010​	Jahvid Best

At best, it’s barely more than a 50/50 proposition. Harris is a proven pro RB. Hampton remains to be seen, and some of those guys who didn’t become studs had better scouting reports/pro projections than Hampton has.

I’m not sure where the certainty some have that Hampton sends Harris to backup status is coming from.

We aren't guaranteeing Hampton is a stud. We are saying the first round draft capital brings a ton of upside. CEH had upside being a first rounder in a great offense but he just sucked as a player. It happens.


Bijan was 58-1463-8
Gibbs was 52-1261-11, and elite down the stretch when the money is won
Najee was 74-1667-10 (never caught more than 41 since though)
Etienne was injured
CEH was 36-1100-5 - admittedly disappointing but still a RB2
Barkley was 91-2024-15
Penny was 9-494-2 - total bust
Michel was 7-981-6 in 13 GP. - definitely not a league winner but usable at times - was elite in the NFL playoffs
Fournette was 36-1342-10
CMC was 80-1086-7 - He had Jonathan Stewart playing ahead of him and Cam Newton running a lot. This is probably a good comparison for Najee backers
Elliott was 32-1994-16
Gurley was 21-1294-10 in 13 GP.
Gordon was 33-833-0 - Bad rookie year and broke out in year 2
Richardson was 51-1317-12 - Ended up total bust but great rookie season
Martin was 49-1926-12 - Elite
Wilson was 4-392-5 - bust

I'm tired of looking up stats but we've gone back 13 years at this point. If we could draw Hampton's rookie season out of a hat to match one of these, which would you take or not take? The no's for me are Penny, Gordon, and Wilson. The meh is Michel but I'll call him a no too. The Yes's are Bijan, Gibbs, Najee, CEH, Barkley, Fournette, CMC, Zeke, Gurley, Richardson and Martin. So 11 yes and 4 no. That's way more than a 50/50 proposition!

I like that! Let’s just toss away the prospects who didn’t get it done, recalculate the odds after that, and then give Hampton those new odds.

New math is awesome!

 

[Bri]

I haven't been a Najee fan because he's let me down. I was and then I was again and the guy isn't anywhere near as good as expected.

Being a Steelers RB has been a great opportunity since the dawn of time. That he didn't absolutely flourish there is noteworthy.

IIRC Harbaugh is not his brother always (pre Henry) having a share at RB but he had Gore getting a zillion carries.

He had his guy last year but he couldn't stay healthy as Dobbins has his whole career.

I'm of the opinion it's Hampton or Najee and not a share. Not to say the other won't get work, just he's looking for his sled dog.

Najee isn't that. You're all welcome to your opinion and all the best for him but dude has burned me so much I'm not touching that stove again. I may go with Hampton but definitely not Najee

 

[Western_77]

I was a long time Najee owner and he was frustrating. He was always a must start, but seemed like he had a lot of 1 and 2 yard carries.....but they kept giving him the ball so his yardage often ended up being decent. I don't think that the Chargers will be that patient with him. I traded Harris last season and I'm a Hampton owner now and maybe I'm a little worried about Harris stealing goal line carries, although despite his size, he was never great at that either. So I guess that I'm not really that worried about Harris' presence impacting Hampton's growth.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Some here are acting like 1st round draft capital for a RB guarantees you a stud. Here are the 1st rounders drafted since 2010 (who have actually played a down in the NFL):

2023​	Bijan Robinson
2023​	Jahmyr Gibbs
2021​	Najee Harris
2021​	Travis Etienne
2020​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2019​	Josh Jacobs
2018​	Saquon Barkley
2018​	Rashaad Penny
2018​	Sony Michel
2017​	Leonard Fournette
2017​	Christian McCaffrey
2016​	Ezekiel Elliott
2015​	Todd Gurley
2015​	Melvin Gordon
2012​	Trent Richardson
2012​	Doug Martin
2012​	David Wilson
2011​	Mark Ingram
2010​	C.J. Spiller
2010​	Ryan Mathews
2010​	Jahvid Best

At best, it’s barely more than a 50/50 proposition.
Harris
is a proven pro RB.
Hampton
remains to be seen, and some of those guys who didn’t become studs had better scouting reports/pro projections than
Hampton
has.

I’m not sure where the certainty some have that
Hampton
sends
Harris
to backup status is coming from.

We aren't guaranteeing
Hampton
is a stud. We are saying the first round draft capital brings a ton of upside. CEH had upside being a first rounder in a great offense but he just sucked as a player. It happens.


Bijan was 58-1463-8

Gibbs
was 52-1261-11, and elite down the stretch when the money is won
Najee was 74-1667-10 (never caught more than 41 since though)

Etienne
was injured
CEH was 36-1100-5 - admittedly disappointing but still a RB2

Barkley
was 91-2024-15
Penny was 9-494-2 - total bust
Michel was 7-981-6 in 13 GP. - definitely not a league winner but usable at times - was elite in the NFL playoffs

Fournette
was 36-1342-10
CMC was 80-1086-7 - He had Jonathan
Stewart
playing ahead of him and Cam
Newton
running a lot. This is probably a good comparison for Najee backers

Elliott
was 32-1994-16
Gurley was 21-1294-10 in 13 GP.

Gordon
was 33-833-0 - Bad rookie year and broke out in year 2

Richardson
was 51-1317-12 - Ended up total bust but great rookie season
Martin was 49-1926-12 - Elite

Wilson
was 4-392-5 - bust

I'm tired of looking up stats but we've gone back 13 years at this point. If we could draw
Hampton
's rookie season out of a hat to match one of these, which would you take or not take? The no's for me are Penny,
Gordon
, and
Wilson
. The meh is Michel but I'll call him a no too. The Yes's are Bijan,
Gibbs
, Najee, CEH,
Barkley
,
Fournette
, CMC, Zeke, Gurley,
Richardson
and Martin. So 11 yes and 4 no. That's way more than a 50/50 proposition!

I like that! Let’s just toss away the prospects who didn’t get it done, recalculate the odds after that, and then give
Hampton
those new odds.

New math is awesome!

Who got tossed away? I went down your list of Rd1 Running backs. What odds were recalculated? WTF are you talking about?

 

[JohnnyU]

Some here are acting like 1st round draft capital for a RB guarantees you a stud. Here are the 1st rounders drafted since 2010 (who have actually played a down in the NFL):

2023​	Bijan Robinson
2023​	Jahmyr Gibbs
2021​	Najee Harris
2021​	Travis Etienne
2020​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2019​	Josh Jacobs
2018​	Saquon Barkley
2018​	Rashaad Penny
2018​	Sony Michel
2017​	Leonard Fournette
2017​	Christian McCaffrey
2016​	Ezekiel Elliott
2015​	Todd Gurley
2015​	Melvin Gordon
2012​	Trent Richardson
2012​	Doug Martin
2012​	David Wilson
2011​	Mark Ingram
2010​	C.J. Spiller
2010​	Ryan Mathews
2010​	Jahvid Best

At best, it’s barely more than a 50/50 proposition.
Harris
is a proven pro RB.
Hampton
remains to be seen, and some of those guys who didn’t become studs had better scouting reports/pro projections than
Hampton
has.

I’m not sure where the certainty some have that
Hampton
sends
Harris
to backup status is coming from.

We aren't guaranteeing
Hampton
is a stud. We are saying the first round draft capital brings a ton of upside. CEH had upside being a first rounder in a great offense but he just sucked as a player. It happens.


Bijan was 58-1463-8

Gibbs
was 52-1261-11, and elite down the stretch when the money is won
Najee was 74-1667-10 (never caught more than 41 since though)

Etienne
was injured
CEH was 36-1100-5 - admittedly disappointing but still a RB2

Barkley
was 91-2024-15
Penny was 9-494-2 - total bust
Michel was 7-981-6 in 13 GP. - definitely not a league winner but usable at times - was elite in the NFL playoffs

Fournette
was 36-1342-10
CMC was 80-1086-7 - He had Jonathan
Stewart
playing ahead of him and Cam
Newton
running a lot. This is probably a good comparison for Najee backers

Elliott
was 32-1994-16
Gurley was 21-1294-10 in 13 GP.

Gordon
was 33-833-0 - Bad rookie year and broke out in year 2

Richardson
was 51-1317-12 - Ended up total bust but great rookie season
Martin was 49-1926-12 - Elite

Wilson
was 4-392-5 - bust

I'm tired of looking up stats but we've gone back 13 years at this point. If we could draw
Hampton
's rookie season out of a hat to match one of these, which would you take or not take? The no's for me are Penny,
Gordon
, and
Wilson
. The meh is Michel but I'll call him a no too. The Yes's are Bijan,
Gibbs
, Najee, CEH,
Barkley
,
Fournette
, CMC, Zeke, Gurley,
Richardson
and Martin. So 11 yes and 4 no. That's way more than a 50/50 proposition!

I like that! Let’s just toss away the prospects who didn’t get it done, recalculate the odds after that, and then give
Hampton
those new odds.

New math is awesome!

Who got tossed away? I went down your list of Rd1 Running backs. What odds were recalculated? WTF are you talking about?

at the “F”.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Some here are acting like 1st round draft capital for a RB guarantees you a stud. Here are the 1st rounders drafted since 2010 (who have actually played a down in the NFL):

2023​	Bijan Robinson
2023​	Jahmyr Gibbs
2021​	Najee Harris
2021​	Travis Etienne
2020​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2019​	Josh Jacobs
2018​	Saquon Barkley
2018​	Rashaad Penny
2018​	Sony Michel
2017​	Leonard Fournette
2017​	Christian McCaffrey
2016​	Ezekiel Elliott
2015​	Todd Gurley
2015​	Melvin Gordon
2012​	Trent Richardson
2012​	Doug Martin
2012​	David Wilson
2011​	Mark Ingram
2010​	C.J. Spiller
2010​	Ryan Mathews
2010​	Jahvid Best

At best, it’s barely more than a 50/50 proposition.
Harris
is a proven pro RB.
Hampton
remains to be seen, and some of those guys who didn’t become studs had better scouting reports/pro projections than
Hampton
has.

I’m not sure where the certainty some have that
Hampton
sends
Harris
to backup status is coming from.

We aren't guaranteeing
Hampton
is a stud. We are saying the first round draft capital brings a ton of upside. CEH had upside being a first rounder in a great offense but he just sucked as a player. It happens.


Bijan was 58-1463-8

Gibbs
was 52-1261-11, and elite down the stretch when the money is won
Najee was 74-1667-10 (never caught more than 41 since though)

Etienne
was injured
CEH was 36-1100-5 - admittedly disappointing but still a RB2

Barkley
was 91-2024-15
Penny was 9-494-2 - total bust
Michel was 7-981-6 in 13 GP. - definitely not a league winner but usable at times - was elite in the NFL playoffs

Fournette
was 36-1342-10
CMC was 80-1086-7 - He had Jonathan
Stewart
playing ahead of him and Cam
Newton
running a lot. This is probably a good comparison for Najee backers

Elliott
was 32-1994-16
Gurley was 21-1294-10 in 13 GP.

Gordon
was 33-833-0 - Bad rookie year and broke out in year 2

Richardson
was 51-1317-12 - Ended up total bust but great rookie season
Martin was 49-1926-12 - Elite

Wilson
was 4-392-5 - bust

I'm tired of looking up stats but we've gone back 13 years at this point. If we could draw
Hampton
's rookie season out of a hat to match one of these, which would you take or not take? The no's for me are Penny,
Gordon
, and
Wilson
. The meh is Michel but I'll call him a no too. The Yes's are Bijan,
Gibbs
, Najee, CEH,
Barkley
,
Fournette
, CMC, Zeke, Gurley,
Richardson
and Martin. So 11 yes and 4 no. That's way more than a 50/50 proposition!

I like that! Let’s just toss away the prospects who didn’t get it done, recalculate the odds after that, and then give
Hampton
those new odds.

New math is awesome!

Who got tossed away? I went down your list of Rd1 Running backs. What odds were recalculated? WTF are you talking about?

at the “F”.

I am literally baffled at what I supposedly tossed away and recalculated. I just listed factual stats of rookies from the post and stated which ones I consider to be successful or not if Hampton were to hit those numbers.

 

[JohnnyU]

Some here are acting like 1st round draft capital for a RB guarantees you a stud. Here are the 1st rounders drafted since 2010 (who have actually played a down in the NFL):

2023​	Bijan Robinson
2023​	Jahmyr Gibbs
2021​	Najee Harris
2021​	Travis Etienne
2020​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2019​	Josh Jacobs
2018​	Saquon Barkley
2018​	Rashaad Penny
2018​	Sony Michel
2017​	Leonard Fournette
2017​	Christian McCaffrey
2016​	Ezekiel Elliott
2015​	Todd Gurley
2015​	Melvin Gordon
2012​	Trent Richardson
2012​	Doug Martin
2012​	David Wilson
2011​	Mark Ingram
2010​	C.J. Spiller
2010​	Ryan Mathews
2010​	Jahvid Best

At best, it’s barely more than a 50/50 proposition.
Harris
is a proven pro RB.
Hampton
remains to be seen, and some of those guys who didn’t become studs had better scouting reports/pro projections than
Hampton
has.

I’m not sure where the certainty some have that
Hampton
sends
Harris
to backup status is coming from.

We aren't guaranteeing
Hampton
is a stud. We are saying the first round draft capital brings a ton of upside. CEH had upside being a first rounder in a great offense but he just sucked as a player. It happens.


Bijan was 58-1463-8

Gibbs
was 52-1261-11, and elite down the stretch when the money is won
Najee was 74-1667-10 (never caught more than 41 since though)

Etienne
was injured
CEH was 36-1100-5 - admittedly disappointing but still a RB2

Barkley
was 91-2024-15
Penny was 9-494-2 - total bust
Michel was 7-981-6 in 13 GP. - definitely not a league winner but usable at times - was elite in the NFL playoffs

Fournette
was 36-1342-10
CMC was 80-1086-7 - He had Jonathan
Stewart
playing ahead of him and Cam
Newton
running a lot. This is probably a good comparison for Najee backers

Elliott
was 32-1994-16
Gurley was 21-1294-10 in 13 GP.

Gordon
was 33-833-0 - Bad rookie year and broke out in year 2

Richardson
was 51-1317-12 - Ended up total bust but great rookie season
Martin was 49-1926-12 - Elite

Wilson
was 4-392-5 - bust

I'm tired of looking up stats but we've gone back 13 years at this point. If we could draw
Hampton
's rookie season out of a hat to match one of these, which would you take or not take? The no's for me are Penny,
Gordon
, and
Wilson
. The meh is Michel but I'll call him a no too. The Yes's are Bijan,
Gibbs
, Najee, CEH,
Barkley
,
Fournette
, CMC, Zeke, Gurley,
Richardson
and Martin. So 11 yes and 4 no. That's way more than a 50/50 proposition!

I like that! Let’s just toss away the prospects who didn’t get it done, recalculate the odds after that, and then give
Hampton
those new odds.

New math is awesome!

Who got tossed away? I went down your list of Rd1 Running backs. What odds were recalculated? WTF are you talking about?

at the “F”.

I am literally baffled at what I supposedly tossed away and recalculated. I just listed factual stats of rookies from the post and stated which ones I consider to be successful or not if Hampton were to hit those numbers.

Oh I know. It just struck me as funny.

 

[bluemanfoo]

I never bought the hype on Najee and always thought he was slow. Coming out of Alabama, I thought his stats were obviously propped up by an offense ridiculously stacked with future NFL first round draft picks. But he lost weight last offseason, and now the pendulum has swung too much in the other direction IMO. He certainly was no scatback last season, but he was faster, and looked a lot better. IMO, he will get his share of carries this year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

Never said it wasn’t. But it’s not a reason to fade Najee this year, IMO.

Harbaugh is a shifty dude. I’ve found him to be one of the trickier coaches to anticipate. But hey, that’s just me. I could be wrong but when they signed Najee it felt like the exact fit for what he likes to do.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Najee as the early down banger & Hampton as a COP, receiver, breather back in his 1st year.

And as others have suggested, if Hampton struggles to protect the rock or pass protect Herbert, he’ll have a tough time staying in the mix.

Not saying that’s to be expected, I’m just saying it’s on the spectrum of possibilities and we just don’t know.

 

[JohnnyU]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

Never said it wasn’t. But it’s not a reason to fade Najee this year, IMO.

Harbaugh is a shifty dude. I’ve found him to be one of the trickier coaches to anticipate. But hey, that’s just me. I could be wrong but when they signed Najee it felt like the exact fit for what he likes to do.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Najee as the early down banger & Hampton as a COP, receiver, breather back in his 1st year.

And as others have suggested, if Hampton struggles to protect the rock or pass protect Herbert, he’ll have a tough time staying in the mix.

Not saying that’s to be expected, I’m just saying it’s on the spectrum of possibilities and we just don’t know.

Or maybe it’s the best man wins?

 

[Trent]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

Have Kmet on my TEP dynasty team. Thought he might blow up before the Loveland addition. But I have been selecting him with reckless abandon on underdog at TE36.

 

[FarFromHome]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

Never said it wasn’t. But it’s not a reason to fade Najee this year, IMO.

Harbaugh is a shifty dude. I’ve found him to be one of the trickier coaches to anticipate. But hey, that’s just me. I could be wrong but when they signed Najee it felt like the exact fit for what he likes to do.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Najee as the early down banger & Hampton as a COP, receiver, breather back in his 1st year.

And as others have suggested, if Hampton struggles to protect the rock or pass protect Herbert, he’ll have a tough time staying in the mix.

Not saying that’s to be expected, I’m just saying it’s on the spectrum of possibilities and we just don’t know.

Or maybe it’s the best man wins?

Thats what it comes down for me. My eyes say Hampton is light years ahead of Najee as a runner. Like it's not even close. I don't need data. Facts. Mathematical equations. My eyes tell me this. Now. I have no idea on the intangible things in the competition between the two. Does Hampton pick up offenses quick? Will he hold up on pass protection? Is he coachable? Najee is a seasoned veteran. I don't worry about those things with him. Should be a fun lead back battle to watch. I think if I were betting my mortgage, they both end the year with similar total yards and tds. Both are relegated to rb3 guys. That following year is the Year of the Hampton. Having said that, of one of them were to just light it up this year it would be Hampton. Imo

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

Never said it wasn’t. But it’s not a reason to fade Najee this year, IMO.

Harbaugh is a shifty dude. I’ve found him to be one of the trickier coaches to anticipate. But hey, that’s just me. I could be wrong but when they signed Najee it felt like the exact fit for what he likes to do.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Najee as the early down banger & Hampton as a COP, receiver, breather back in his 1st year.

And as others have suggested, if Hampton struggles to protect the rock or pass protect Herbert, he’ll have a tough time staying in the mix.

Not saying that’s to be expected, I’m just saying it’s on the spectrum of possibilities and we just don’t know.

Or maybe it’s the best man wins?

Certainly might be. Not sure how many ways I can say it - all of that is possible. There are many possible outcomes.

But we don’t know, so it seems like anyone emphatically predicting outcomes one way or the other is prematurely anointing Hampton/burying Najee.

Personally I think it’ll be closer to an even split than anyone wants.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

Never said it wasn’t. But it’s not a reason to fade Najee this year, IMO.

Harbaugh is a shifty dude. I’ve found him to be one of the trickier coaches to anticipate. But hey, that’s just me. I could be wrong but when they signed Najee it felt like the exact fit for what he likes to do.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Najee as the early down banger & Hampton as a COP, receiver, breather back in his 1st year.

And as others have suggested, if Hampton struggles to protect the rock or pass protect Herbert, he’ll have a tough time staying in the mix.

Not saying that’s to be expected, I’m just saying it’s on the spectrum of possibilities and we just don’t know.

Or maybe it’s the best man wins?

Thats what it comes down for me. My eyes say Hampton is light years ahead of Najee as a runner. Like it's not even close. I don't need data. Facts. Mathematical equations. My eyes tell me this. Now. I have no idea on the intangible things in the competition between the two. Does Hampton pick up offenses quick? Will he hold up on pass protection? Is he coachable? Najee is a seasoned veteran. I don't worry about those things with him. Should be a fun lead back battle to watch. I think if I were betting my mortgage, they both end the year with similar total yards and tds. Both are relegated to rb3 guys. That following year is the Year of the Hampton. Having said that, of one of them were to just light it up this year it would be Hampton. Imo

How many carries have you seen Hampton take in the NFL?

 

[JohnnyU]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

Never said it wasn’t. But it’s not a reason to fade Najee this year, IMO.

Harbaugh is a shifty dude. I’ve found him to be one of the trickier coaches to anticipate. But hey, that’s just me. I could be wrong but when they signed Najee it felt like the exact fit for what he likes to do.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Najee as the early down banger & Hampton as a COP, receiver, breather back in his 1st year.

And as others have suggested, if Hampton struggles to protect the rock or pass protect Herbert, he’ll have a tough time staying in the mix.

Not saying that’s to be expected, I’m just saying it’s on the spectrum of possibilities and we just don’t know.

Or maybe it’s the best man wins?

But we don’t know, so it seems like anyone emphatically predicting outcomes one way or the other is prematurely anointing Hampton/burying Najee.

….or the other way around

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

Never said it wasn’t. But it’s not a reason to fade Najee this year, IMO.

Harbaugh is a shifty dude. I’ve found him to be one of the trickier coaches to anticipate. But hey, that’s just me. I could be wrong but when they signed Najee it felt like the exact fit for what he likes to do.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Najee as the early down banger & Hampton as a COP, receiver, breather back in his 1st year.

And as others have suggested, if Hampton struggles to protect the rock or pass protect Herbert, he’ll have a tough time staying in the mix.

Not saying that’s to be expected, I’m just saying it’s on the spectrum of possibilities and we just don’t know.

Or maybe it’s the best man wins?

Certainly might be. Not sure how many ways I can say it - all of that is possible. There are many possible outcomes.

But we don’t know, so it seems like anyone emphatically predicting outcomes one way or the other is prematurely anointing Hampton/burying Najee.

Personally I think it’ll be closer to an even split than anyone wants.

Yeah I think all 3 options are on the table. Split favoring Najee, split favoring Hampton or 50/50 split. The conversation has evolved to Najee vs Hampton when it really started as Hampton has upside and Najee doesn't. In other words, if Najee gets 70% of the touches he doesn't profile as a league winner. He feels like Rhamondre with his best case being steelers Najee. If Hampton gets 70%, it's either because Najee is cooked, Najee is hurt, or Hampton is elite. He feels like he could be Bucky Irving or better with that usage.

Personally, I'm willing to bet on Hampton in Round 5 and possibly in Round 4. I'm willing to roster Najee if he lasts to Round 10 or 11 (Current ESPN ADP is pick 121 near Tyjae Spears and Rachaad White). It really depends on my roster at that point. If I need September production it's Najee. If I'm looking for December potential, it's probably Tuten. If I'm looking at potential league winners that late, it's probably Jordan Mason or Isaac Guerendo.

 

[FarFromHome]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

Never said it wasn’t. But it’s not a reason to fade Najee this year, IMO.

Harbaugh is a shifty dude. I’ve found him to be one of the trickier coaches to anticipate. But hey, that’s just me. I could be wrong but when they signed Najee it felt like the exact fit for what he likes to do.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Najee as the early down banger & Hampton as a COP, receiver, breather back in his 1st year.

And as others have suggested, if Hampton struggles to protect the rock or pass protect Herbert, he’ll have a tough time staying in the mix.

Not saying that’s to be expected, I’m just saying it’s on the spectrum of possibilities and we just don’t know.

Or maybe it’s the best man wins?

Thats what it comes down for me. My eyes say Hampton is light years ahead of Najee as a runner. Like it's not even close. I don't need data. Facts. Mathematical equations. My eyes tell me this. Now. I have no idea on the intangible things in the competition between the two. Does Hampton pick up offenses quick? Will he hold up on pass protection? Is he coachable? Najee is a seasoned veteran. I don't worry about those things with him. Should be a fun lead back battle to watch. I think if I were betting my mortgage, they both end the year with similar total yards and tds. Both are relegated to rb3 guys. That following year is the Year of the Hampton. Having said that, of one of them were to just light it up this year it would be Hampton. Imo

How many carries have you seen Hampton take in the NFL?

I remember watching Barry Sanders in college and just thinking, yep. LeBron James in high school I was like, yep. Before you blast me, I'm not saying Hampton is either. I use those examples to say I feel comfortable saying, yep, on some players before they hit the pros. Was your question meant to push dialogue or take a swipe? Ha ha. I watch Hampton and he just has elite NFL rb ability. Like legit. I'm sold. I'm on Team Hampton, but am also able to understand that Team Najee is a damn good team also. This pair is gonna kill it together in real life. I think they split fairly evenly year 1.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

Never said it wasn’t. But it’s not a reason to fade Najee this year, IMO.

Harbaugh is a shifty dude. I’ve found him to be one of the trickier coaches to anticipate. But hey, that’s just me. I could be wrong but when they signed Najee it felt like the exact fit for what he likes to do.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Najee as the early down banger & Hampton as a COP, receiver, breather back in his 1st year.

And as others have suggested, if Hampton struggles to protect the rock or pass protect Herbert, he’ll have a tough time staying in the mix.

Not saying that’s to be expected, I’m just saying it’s on the spectrum of possibilities and we just don’t know.

Or maybe it’s the best man wins?

But we don’t know, so it seems like anyone emphatically predicting outcomes one way or the other is prematurely anointing Hampton/burying Najee.

….or the other way around

Sure. But again, we don’t know. And that’s the entire point of this exercise - taking a mile high view of not just Hampton/Najee, but of *all* of the incoming rookies, and being a little bit less credulous.

We as a community collectively assume that rookies are immediately going to impact and take over a situation - and we as a community are wrong, a lot.

Let’s take Hampton/Najee out of the equation for a minute. Of the 2024 rookie class, how many of the perceived impact rookies actually met expectations? How about 2023? It certainly isn’t 100%.

I remember when Chuba was considered dead and buried because the Panthers drafted Jonathan Brooks. All I kept hearing is “when Brooks comes back from injury, he’s taking over that backfield!”

I couldn’t give away Chuba - perception was that the roster spot was more valuable than that “jag”. Yeah - that didn’t quite work out as well as folks expected, eh? People were just as confident in Brooks as they are in Hampton now. Brooks was a top 5 dynasty pick in a couple of my leagues.

And that’s the sort of thing that happens all the time. Can’t miss prospects often do. Or they take time to develop. Or coaches prefer to ease them in. Or have them split time, even if their draft capital suggests otherwise.

And we, as a community, get sucked into Pollyanna evaluations & prognostications to the point that we sometimes jump the gun in our assumptions. That’s the overarching point.

This topic isn’t intended to be a “Najee vs Hampton” debate. I know some y’all want to make it that out of defending one or the other, but that’s not why I started this conversation.

They’re certainly an appropriate pair of players to discuss in here - because we really don’t know how that backfield is going to shake out. And hey, if I had 1.03 in a SF league & Hampton was there, I wouldn’t hesitate to draft him in dynasty. so honestly you’re all preaching to the choir.

They’re just one example of many where we might collectively be wrong.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This pair is gonna kill it together in real life.

That is likely the most probably outcome.

Not taking g a swipe at all - I’m just saying rookies are always unpredictable. For every Barry Sanders there are 100 Ontario Smiths.

Remember Ron Dayne? He looked like the next great NFL back - and he had a decent career, just nothing like what folks thought he’d do based on college.

The Jets picked Blair Thomas 2nd overall. He had it all - the college resume, draft capital, good landing spot. Yikes. 1 pretty good rookie season, a not as good year 2 & fell off a cliff.

Vaughn Dunbar, Brent Fullwood, Chris Perry… the list goes on and on.

That all said I’m also high on Hampton. I’m just saying I might be wrong. And I know what Najee Harris is, which is boring and reliable. And Harbaugh loves him some boring and reliable backs.

​

 

[FarFromHome]

This pair is gonna kill it together in real life.

That is likely the most probably outcome.

Not taking g a swipe at all - I’m just saying rookies are always unpredictable. For every Barry Sanders there are 100 Ontario Smiths.

Remember Ron Dayne? He looked like the next great NFL back - and he had a decent career, just nothing like what folks thought he’d do based on college.

The Jets picked Blair Thomas 2nd overall. He had it all - the college resume, draft capital, good landing spot. Yikes. 1 pretty good rookie season, a not as good year 2 & fell off a cliff.

Vaughn Dunbar, Brent Fullwood, Chris Perry… the list goes on and on.

That all said I’m also high on Hampton. I’m just saying I might be wrong. And I know what Najee Harris is, which is boring and reliable. And Harbaugh loves him some boring and reliable backs.

​

Yep. I will also say I have an offer on the table of Rashee Rice for my Omarion Hampton. If I accept my entire opinion changes regarding Hampton. Bwahahaahaha

 

[TheWinz]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

It would be more of a factor if the incumbent (Najee) wasn't also a 1st round pick, but he is.

 

[JohnnyU]

This pair is gonna kill it together in real life.

That is likely the most probably outcome.

Not taking g a swipe at all - I’m just saying rookies are always unpredictable. For every Barry Sanders there are 100 Ontario Smiths.

Remember Ron Dayne? He looked like the next great NFL back - and he had a decent career, just nothing like what folks thought he’d do based on college.

The Jets picked Blair Thomas 2nd overall. He had it all - the college resume, draft capital, good landing spot. Yikes. 1 pretty good rookie season, a not as good year 2 & fell off a cliff.

Vaughn Dunbar, Brent Fullwood, Chris Perry… the list goes on and on.

That all said I’m also high on Hampton. I’m just saying I might be wrong. And I know what Najee Harris is, which is boring and reliable. And Harbaugh loves him some boring and reliable backs.

​

Yep. I will also say I have an offer on the table of Rashee Rice for my Omarion Hampton. If I accept my entire opinion changes regarding Hampton. Bwahahaahaha

I recommend taking a drive with Rice first, then decide.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

It would be more of a factor if the incumbent (Najee) wasn't also a 1st round pick, but he is.

Does that matter in Year 5 when the team that drafted didn't even attempt to bring him back? We aren't comparing 2021 Najee vs 2025 Hampton. CEH was down to 71 carries by Year 3 as a first round pick.

 

[Ilov80s]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

It would be more of a factor if the incumbent (Najee) wasn't also a 1st round pick, but he is.

And Najee got a lot of touches as a rookie. However the Steelers didn’t want to pick up his 5th year and he was only able to get a 1 year $5 million deal in FA. He was a first rounder but that’s not what the league sees him as now.

 

[Rockchild]

This pair is gonna kill it together in real life.

That is likely the most probably outcome.

Not taking g a swipe at all - I’m just saying rookies are always unpredictable. For every Barry Sanders there are 100 Ontario Smiths.

Remember Ron Dayne? He looked like the next great NFL back - and he had a decent career, just nothing like what folks thought he’d do based on college.

The Jets picked Blair Thomas 2nd overall. He had it all - the college resume, draft capital, good landing spot. Yikes. 1 pretty good rookie season, a not as good year 2 & fell off a cliff.

Vaughn Dunbar, Brent Fullwood, Chris Perry… the list goes on and on.

That all said I’m also high on Hampton. I’m just saying I might be wrong. And I know what Najee Harris is, which is boring and reliable. And Harbaugh loves him some boring and reliable backs.

​

Damn, I forgot all about Chris Perry. I had such high hope for him but it was not to be.

 

[Ilov80s]

This pair is gonna kill it together in real life.

That is likely the most probably outcome.

Not taking g a swipe at all - I’m just saying rookies are always unpredictable. For every Barry Sanders there are 100 Ontario Smiths.

Remember Ron Dayne? He looked like the next great NFL back - and he had a decent career, just nothing like what folks thought he’d do based on college.

The Jets picked Blair Thomas 2nd overall. He had it all - the college resume, draft capital, good landing spot. Yikes. 1 pretty good rookie season, a not as good year 2 & fell off a cliff.

Vaughn Dunbar, Brent Fullwood, Chris Perry… the list goes on and on.

That all said I’m also high on Hampton. I’m just saying I might be wrong. And I know what Najee Harris is, which is boring and reliable. And Harbaugh loves him some boring and reliable backs.

​

Damn, I forgot all about Chris Perry. I had such high hope for him but it was not to be.

I think he may have gotten overworked at Michigan. I swear his last year Michigan would give him the ball 30-40 times a game.

 

[Ilov80s]

That is likely the most probably outcome.

Not taking g a swipe at all - I’m just saying rookies are always unpredictable. For every Barry Sanders there are 100 Ontario Smiths.

Remember Ron Dayne? He looked like the next great NFL back - and he had a decent career, just nothing like what folks thought he’d do based on college.

The Jets picked Blair Thomas 2nd overall. He had it all - the college resume, draft capital, good landing spot. Yikes. 1 pretty good rookie season, a not as good year 2 & fell off a cliff.

Vaughn Dunbar, Brent Fullwood, Chris Perry… the list goes on and on.

That all said I’m also high on Hampton . I’m just saying I might be wrong. And I know what Najee Harris is, which is boring and reliable. And Harbaugh loves him some boring and reliable backs.

You can't go too far back making the 1st round RB comparison. It's not the same league as it was in the 90s and 00s. Teams used to just look and go, "220 pounds, big time college with lots of production. Ok let's make him a top 10 pick". They have gotten better in scouting RBs or at least wiser about how much they value them.

 

[bluemanfoo]

That is likely the most probably outcome.

Not taking g a swipe at all - I’m just saying rookies are always unpredictable. For every Barry Sanders there are 100 Ontario Smiths.

Remember Ron Dayne? He looked like the next great NFL back - and he had a decent career, just nothing like what folks thought he’d do based on college.

The Jets picked Blair Thomas 2nd overall. He had it all - the college resume, draft capital, good landing spot. Yikes. 1 pretty good rookie season, a not as good year 2 & fell off a cliff.

Vaughn Dunbar, Brent Fullwood, Chris Perry… the list goes on and on.

That all said I’m also high on Hampton . I’m just saying I might be wrong. And I know what Najee Harris is, which is boring and reliable. And Harbaugh loves him some boring and reliable backs.

You can't go too far back making the 1st round RB comparison. It's not the same league as it was in the 90s and 00s. Teams used to just look and go, "220 pounds, big time college with lots of production. Ok let's make him a top 10 pick". They have gotten better in scouting RBs or at least wiser about how much they value them.

Yeah, RB scouting was awful back then. Should have been obvious that a big, slow back who ran behind a dominant offensive line at Wisconsin would be a bust in the pros.

 

[King of the Jungle]

This pair is gonna kill it together in real life.

That is likely the most probably outcome.

Not taking g a swipe at all - I’m just saying rookies are always unpredictable. For every Barry Sanders there are 100 Ontario Smiths.

Remember Ron Dayne? He looked like the next great NFL back - and he had a decent career, just nothing like what folks thought he’d do based on college.

The Jets picked Blair Thomas 2nd overall. He had it all - the college resume, draft capital, good landing spot. Yikes. 1 pretty good rookie season, a not as good year 2 & fell off a cliff.

Vaughn Dunbar, Brent Fullwood, Chris Perry… the list goes on and on.

That all said I’m also high on Hampton. I’m just saying I might be wrong. And I know what Najee Harris is, which is boring and reliable. And Harbaugh loves him some boring and reliable backs.

​

“I might be wrong.” That is the a great statement. This is the best FF forum out there imo, but we spend a lot of time trying to be right and feeding our ego (I am guilty as well). Nobody bats a thousand. If we spent more time examining and admitting our mistakes (not saying you specifically are wrong) I think we would benefit more in this silly hobby that we enjoy. Bottom line is nobody knows (much like the stock market) how an individual human is going to perform physically or mentally. When looking at rookies I lean on Waldman. He has a process that is unlike anyone else I have viewed and I appreciate the work he puts into it. Then you see people bashing him when he had someone against the grain rated higher than “consensus.” Waldman had no control over how mature or hard working or what environment that player is placed in once they reach this level. We can ignore that and say he made a bad ranking (and he emphasizes how he hates rankings in his RSP and a lot of times the difference between players is very minuscule). All that makes a heck of a difference. Not even really sure what my tangent is here, but it is a fine line between a player succeeding and not succeeding. I also think if we talked more about our mistakes than our successes we could get a little further ahead. Sorry for all the words.

 

[Ilov80s]

That is likely the most probably outcome.

Not taking g a swipe at all - I’m just saying rookies are always unpredictable. For every Barry Sanders there are 100 Ontario Smiths.

Remember Ron Dayne? He looked like the next great NFL back - and he had a decent career, just nothing like what folks thought he’d do based on college.

The Jets picked Blair Thomas 2nd overall. He had it all - the college resume, draft capital, good landing spot. Yikes. 1 pretty good rookie season, a not as good year 2 & fell off a cliff.

Vaughn Dunbar, Brent Fullwood, Chris Perry… the list goes on and on.

That all said I’m also high on Hampton . I’m just saying I might be wrong. And I know what Najee Harris is, which is boring and reliable. And Harbaugh loves him some boring and reliable backs.

You can't go too far back making the 1st round RB comparison. It's not the same league as it was in the 90s and 00s. Teams used to just look and go, "220 pounds, big time college with lots of production. Ok let's make him a top 10 pick". They have gotten better in scouting RBs or at least wiser about how much they value them.

Yeah, RB scouting was awful back then. Should have been obvious that a big, slow back who ran behind a dominant offensive line at Wisconsin would be a bust in the pros.

Yep Dayne was 260 and ran a 4.65 at the combine. I remember seeing Dayne playe against Michigan in 1999 (his Heisman year). He was fine. They gave him the ball a lot and he was big, but it was clear up against a quality team with NFL caliber athletes and defenders with NFL size that he was nothing special.

 

[TheWinz]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

It would be more of a factor if the incumbent (Najee) wasn't also a 1st round pick, but he is.

Does that matter in Year 5 when the team that drafted didn't even attempt to bring him back? We aren't comparing 2021 Najee vs 2025 Hampton. CEH was down to 71 carries by Year 3 as a first round pick.

You surely aren't comparing CEH to Najee, are you? Why do you hate a RB who has led all RB's in touches over the last 4 seasons, and has finished no lower than a RB2? Now you don't even want him as your RB3? Also, upside is overrated. Actual stats are all that matter in FF, unless your league awards extra points for explosiveness. Honest question - do you think Najee will have at least 200 touches?

 

[Bronco Billy]

Some here are acting like 1st round draft capital for a RB guarantees you a stud. Here are the 1st rounders drafted since 2010 (who have actually played a down in the NFL):

2023​	Bijan Robinson
2023​	Jahmyr Gibbs
2021​	Najee Harris
2021​	Travis Etienne
2020​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2019​	Josh Jacobs
2018​	Saquon Barkley
2018​	Rashaad Penny
2018​	Sony Michel
2017​	Leonard Fournette
2017​	Christian McCaffrey
2016​	Ezekiel Elliott
2015​	Todd Gurley
2015​	Melvin Gordon
2012​	Trent Richardson
2012​	Doug Martin
2012​	David Wilson
2011​	Mark Ingram
2010​	C.J. Spiller
2010​	Ryan Mathews
2010​	Jahvid Best

At best, it’s barely more than a 50/50 proposition.
Harris
is a proven pro RB.
Hampton
remains to be seen, and some of those guys who didn’t become studs had better scouting reports/pro projections than
Hampton
has.

I’m not sure where the certainty some have that
Hampton
sends
Harris
to backup status is coming from.

We aren't guaranteeing
Hampton
is a stud. We are saying the first round draft capital brings a ton of upside. CEH had upside being a first rounder in a great offense but he just sucked as a player. It happens.


Bijan was 58-1463-8

Gibbs
was 52-1261-11, and elite down the stretch when the money is won
Najee was 74-1667-10 (never caught more than 41 since though)

Etienne
was injured
CEH was 36-1100-5 - admittedly disappointing but still a RB2

Barkley
was 91-2024-15
Penny was 9-494-2 - total bust
Michel was 7-981-6 in 13 GP. - definitely not a league winner but usable at times - was elite in the NFL playoffs

Fournette
was 36-1342-10
CMC was 80-1086-7 - He had Jonathan
Stewart
playing ahead of him and Cam
Newton
running a lot. This is probably a good comparison for Najee backers

Elliott
was 32-1994-16
Gurley was 21-1294-10 in 13 GP.

Gordon
was 33-833-0 - Bad rookie year and broke out in year 2

Richardson
was 51-1317-12 - Ended up total bust but great rookie season
Martin was 49-1926-12 - Elite

Wilson
was 4-392-5 - bust

I'm tired of looking up stats but we've gone back 13 years at this point. If we could draw
Hampton
's rookie season out of a hat to match one of these, which would you take or not take? The no's for me are Penny,
Gordon
, and
Wilson
. The meh is Michel but I'll call him a no too. The Yes's are Bijan,
Gibbs
, Najee, CEH,
Barkley
,
Fournette
, CMC, Zeke, Gurley,
Richardson
and Martin. So 11 yes and 4 no. That's way more than a 50/50 proposition!

I like that! Let’s just toss away the prospects who didn’t get it done, recalculate the odds after that, and then give
Hampton
those new odds.

New math is awesome!

Who got tossed away? I went down your list of Rd1 Running backs. What odds were recalculated? WTF are you talking about?

You did type this above, did you not? There were 21 players on the list I posted.

If we could draw Hampton's rookie season out of a hat to match one of these, which would you take or not take? The no's for me are Penny, Gordon, and Wilson. The meh is Michel but I'll call him a no too. The Yes's are Bijan, Gibbs, Najee, CEH, Barkley, Fournette, CMC, Zeke, Gurley, Richardson and Martin. So 11 yes and 4 no. That's way more than a 50/50 proposition!

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

It would be more of a factor if the incumbent (Najee) wasn't also a 1st round pick, but he is.

Does that matter in Year 5 when the team that drafted didn't even attempt to bring him back? We aren't comparing 2021 Najee vs 2025 Hampton. CEH was down to 71 carries by Year 3 as a first round pick.

You surely aren't comparing CEH to Najee, are you? Why do you hate a RB who has led all RB's in touches over the last 4 seasons, and has finished no lower than a RB2? Now you don't even want him as your RB3? Also, upside is overrated. Actual stats are all that matter in FF, unless your league awards extra points for explosiveness. Honest question - do you think Najee will have at least 200 touches?

I didn't compare CEH to Najee. I pointed out that draft capital 5 years ago is irrelevant today and provided you an example. If Najee earns 200 carries, it's based on his 2025 play not his draft capital. Agree?

Where did I say I didn't want Najee as a RB3? I've said he's someone I would never want to click into my starting lineup unless it was a bye week fill-in.

I'll agree to disagree on upside is overrated. Of course stats matter who is saying otherwise? Let's look at some guys side by side in ESPN ADP in the middle rounds. First, there's Calvin Ridley vs Jameson Williams. Ridley could certainly outscore Williams this year. But which one of those guys could go 1200-9? To me it is Jameson and not close. He's in a better offense, he's younger, and he started to break out last year. Ridley is the solid WR3 now in his 30's with a rookie QB on a projected bad team. Williams is a play to win pick and Ridley is a safe play not to lose pick. Also between 70 and 80 are Pollard, Pacheco, Kaleb, and Henderson. Pollard and Pacheco are going slightly ahead of the rookies but what is their realistic ceiling? Pollard feels like last years 1200-5 and Pacheco lower than that. I'd rather take my chance that Kaleb gets the Najee role and is a better player and would absolutely take the chance that Henderson is the most explosive player on NE and will lead them in touches. The rookie upside here far outweighs the safety of Pollard or Pacheco.

Najee seems personal for you. I've acknowledged several times he could out-touch Hampton. Forget all of our personal evaluations of Hampton. The NFL evaluated him as a first round RB and historically first round RB do very well in their rookie seasons. Some start slow and finish strong because they end up proving they are the better back. It's an odds thing and not personal to Najee. The first round rookie RB has a much higher probability of hitting a ceiling than a 5th year RB that his old team let go without even attempting to resign him. I don't think Najee is a dustball yet either I'm just evaluating the situation and going with the odds. And I'm leaving plenty of room that Najee could out touch Hampton or force a 50-50 split and destroy Hampton's upside scenario.
Willing to discuss and debate realistic scenarios here. Comparing 2021 Najee to 2025 Hampton is not realistic or fair. What Najee has done for 4 years is irrelevant. Different team, different situation, better competition, and more usage on his legs. Similarly, we aren't going to rank Nick Chubb on his 2020-2022 seasons or even Travis Etienne on his two 1400 yard seasons and one with 12 TD. We have to factor in Chubb's age and injuries and we have to evaluate if Etienne has lost a step or played injured last year and how much the new decision makers love Tuten. That's what makes these kind of discussions very useful. I plan to put some posts up this month where I'll start the discussion with my opinion of various situations and state where I'm confident or not and hope to learn some things I haven't thought up in these debates.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Some here are acting like 1st round draft capital for a RB guarantees you a stud. Here are the 1st rounders drafted since 2010 (who have actually played a down in the NFL):

2023​	Bijan Robinson
2023​	Jahmyr Gibbs
2021​	Najee Harris
2021​	Travis Etienne
2020​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire
2019​	Josh Jacobs
2018​	Saquon Barkley
2018​	Rashaad Penny
2018​	Sony Michel
2017​	Leonard Fournette
2017​	Christian McCaffrey
2016​	Ezekiel Elliott
2015​	Todd Gurley
2015​	Melvin Gordon
2012​	Trent Richardson
2012​	Doug Martin
2012​	David Wilson
2011​	Mark Ingram
2010​	C.J. Spiller
2010​	Ryan Mathews
2010​	Jahvid Best

At best, it’s barely more than a 50/50 proposition.
Harris
is a proven pro RB.
Hampton
remains to be seen, and some of those guys who didn’t become studs had better scouting reports/pro projections than
Hampton
has.

I’m not sure where the certainty some have that
Hampton
sends
Harris
to backup status is coming from.

We aren't guaranteeing
Hampton
is a stud. We are saying the first round draft capital brings a ton of upside. CEH had upside being a first rounder in a great offense but he just sucked as a player. It happens.


Bijan was 58-1463-8

Gibbs
was 52-1261-11, and elite down the stretch when the money is won
Najee was 74-1667-10 (never caught more than 41 since though)

Etienne
was injured
CEH was 36-1100-5 - admittedly disappointing but still a RB2

Barkley
was 91-2024-15
Penny was 9-494-2 - total bust
Michel was 7-981-6 in 13 GP. - definitely not a league winner but usable at times - was elite in the NFL playoffs

Fournette
was 36-1342-10
CMC was 80-1086-7 - He had Jonathan
Stewart
playing ahead of him and Cam
Newton
running a lot. This is probably a good comparison for Najee backers

Elliott
was 32-1994-16
Gurley was 21-1294-10 in 13 GP.

Gordon
was 33-833-0 - Bad rookie year and broke out in year 2

Richardson
was 51-1317-12 - Ended up total bust but great rookie season
Martin was 49-1926-12 - Elite

Wilson
was 4-392-5 - bust

I'm tired of looking up stats but we've gone back 13 years at this point. If we could draw
Hampton
's rookie season out of a hat to match one of these, which would you take or not take? The no's for me are Penny,
Gordon
, and
Wilson
. The meh is Michel but I'll call him a no too. The Yes's are Bijan,
Gibbs
, Najee, CEH,
Barkley
,
Fournette
, CMC, Zeke, Gurley,
Richardson
and Martin. So 11 yes and 4 no. That's way more than a 50/50 proposition!

I like that! Let’s just toss away the prospects who didn’t get it done, recalculate the odds after that, and then give
Hampton
those new odds.

New math is awesome!

Who got tossed away? I went down your list of Rd1 Running backs. What odds were recalculated? WTF are you talking about?

You did type this above, did you not? There were 21 players on the list I posted.

If we could draw Hampton's rookie season out of a hat to match one of these, which would you take or not take? The no's for me are Penny, Gordon, and Wilson. The meh is Michel but I'll call him a no too. The Yes's are Bijan, Gibbs, Najee, CEH, Barkley, Fournette, CMC, Zeke, Gurley, Richardson and Martin. So 11 yes and 4 no. That's way more than a 50/50 proposition!

I missed Jacobs. Sorry about that. I would consider him a hit as a rookie (20-1316-7 in 13 games).

I also said I stopped after 13 years. If you want to go beyond 13 years to make your point about rookies, have at it. I think we've got plenty of examples since then. The hit rates on these first rounders have gotten a lot better.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

CEH was down to 71 carries by Year 3 as a first round pick.

Another great poster boy for this topic. He was anointed to the point that I was able to get a 1st round pick for him (my own) that I turned into Bijan, who I later dealt for Ja’Mar Chase.

 

[TheWinz]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

It would be more of a factor if the incumbent (Najee) wasn't also a 1st round pick, but he is.

Does that matter in Year 5 when the team that drafted didn't even attempt to bring him back? We aren't comparing 2021 Najee vs 2025 Hampton. CEH was down to 71 carries by Year 3 as a first round pick.

You surely aren't comparing CEH to Najee, are you? Why do you hate a RB who has led all RB's in touches over the last 4 seasons, and has finished no lower than a RB2? Now you don't even want him as your RB3? Also, upside is overrated. Actual stats are all that matter in FF, unless your league awards extra points for explosiveness. Honest question - do you think Najee will have at least 200 touches?

I didn't compare CEH to Najee. I pointed out that draft capital 5 years ago is irrelevant today and provided you an example. If Najee earns 200 carries, it's based on his 2025 play not his draft capital. Agree?

Where did I say I didn't want Najee as a RB3? I've said he's someone I would never want to click into my starting lineup unless it was a bye week fill-in.

I'll agree to disagree on upside is overrated. Of course stats matter who is saying otherwise? Let's look at some guys side by side in ESPN ADP in the middle rounds. First, there's Calvin Ridley vs Jameson Williams. Ridley could certainly outscore Williams this year. But which one of those guys could go 1200-9? To me it is Jameson and not close. He's in a better offense, he's younger, and he started to break out last year. Ridley is the solid WR3 now in his 30's with a rookie QB on a projected bad team. Williams is a play to win pick and Ridley is a safe play not to lose pick. Also between 70 and 80 are Pollard, Pacheco, Kaleb, and Henderson. Pollard and Pacheco are going slightly ahead of the rookies but what is their realistic ceiling? Pollard feels like last years 1200-5 and Pacheco lower than that. I'd rather take my chance that Kaleb gets the Najee role and is a better player and would absolutely take the chance that Henderson is the most explosive player on NE and will lead them in touches. The rookie upside here far outweighs the safety of Pollard or Pacheco.

Najee seems personal for you. I've acknowledged several times he could out-touch Hampton. Forget all of our personal evaluations of Hampton. The NFL evaluated him as a first round RB and historically first round RB do very well in their rookie seasons. Some start slow and finish strong because they end up proving they are the better back. It's an odds thing and not personal to Najee. The first round rookie RB has a much higher probability of hitting a ceiling than a 5th year RB that his old team let go without even attempting to resign him. I don't think Najee is a dustball yet either I'm just evaluating the situation and going with the odds. And I'm leaving plenty of room that Najee could out touch Hampton or force a 50-50 split and destroy Hampton's upside scenario.
Willing to discuss and debate realistic scenarios here. Comparing 2021 Najee to 2025 Hampton is not realistic or fair. What Najee has done for 4 years is irrelevant. Different team, different situation, better competition, and more usage on his legs. Similarly, we aren't going to rank Nick Chubb on his 2020-2022 seasons or even Travis Etienne on his two 1400 yard seasons and one with 12 TD. We have to factor in Chubb's age and injuries and we have to evaluate if Etienne has lost a step or played injured last year and how much the new decision makers love Tuten. That's what makes these kind of discussions very useful. I plan to put some posts up this month where I'll start the discussion with my opinion of various situations and state where I'm confident or not and hope to learn some things I haven't thought up in these debates.

Well thought out, great discussion! I think what got me was when you said Najee cannot be a league winner. Why not? If he is being drafted as RB39 and finishes as RB19, isn't that a league winner? And why wouldn't you want to click on him into your starting lineup as your RB3? I am not saying I would want him as my RB1 or RB2, but RB3 is still a weekly starter in most leagues, right? I would be very happy starting him every single week as my starting RB3. Now, if we are talking about RB2, I will change my tone.

 

[Ilov80s]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

It would be more of a factor if the incumbent (Najee) wasn't also a 1st round pick, but he is.

Does that matter in Year 5 when the team that drafted didn't even attempt to bring him back? We aren't comparing 2021 Najee vs 2025 Hampton. CEH was down to 71 carries by Year 3 as a first round pick.

You surely aren't comparing CEH to Najee, are you? Why do you hate a RB who has led all RB's in touches over the last 4 seasons, and has finished no lower than a RB2? Now you don't even want him as your RB3? Also, upside is overrated. Actual stats are all that matter in FF, unless your league awards extra points for explosiveness. Honest question - do you think Najee will have at least 200 touches?

I didn't compare CEH to Najee. I pointed out that draft capital 5 years ago is irrelevant today and provided you an example. If Najee earns 200 carries, it's based on his 2025 play not his draft capital. Agree?

Where did I say I didn't want Najee as a RB3? I've said he's someone I would never want to click into my starting lineup unless it was a bye week fill-in.

I'll agree to disagree on upside is overrated. Of course stats matter who is saying otherwise? Let's look at some guys side by side in ESPN ADP in the middle rounds. First, there's Calvin Ridley vs Jameson Williams. Ridley could certainly outscore Williams this year. But which one of those guys could go 1200-9? To me it is Jameson and not close. He's in a better offense, he's younger, and he started to break out last year. Ridley is the solid WR3 now in his 30's with a rookie QB on a projected bad team. Williams is a play to win pick and Ridley is a safe play not to lose pick. Also between 70 and 80 are Pollard, Pacheco, Kaleb, and Henderson. Pollard and Pacheco are going slightly ahead of the rookies but what is their realistic ceiling? Pollard feels like last years 1200-5 and Pacheco lower than that. I'd rather take my chance that Kaleb gets the Najee role and is a better player and would absolutely take the chance that Henderson is the most explosive player on NE and will lead them in touches. The rookie upside here far outweighs the safety of Pollard or Pacheco.

Najee seems personal for you. I've acknowledged several times he could out-touch Hampton. Forget all of our personal evaluations of Hampton. The NFL evaluated him as a first round RB and historically first round RB do very well in their rookie seasons. Some start slow and finish strong because they end up proving they are the better back. It's an odds thing and not personal to Najee. The first round rookie RB has a much higher probability of hitting a ceiling than a 5th year RB that his old team let go without even attempting to resign him. I don't think Najee is a dustball yet either I'm just evaluating the situation and going with the odds. And I'm leaving plenty of room that Najee could out touch Hampton or force a 50-50 split and destroy Hampton's upside scenario.
Willing to discuss and debate realistic scenarios here. Comparing 2021 Najee to 2025 Hampton is not realistic or fair. What Najee has done for 4 years is irrelevant. Different team, different situation, better competition, and more usage on his legs. Similarly, we aren't going to rank Nick Chubb on his 2020-2022 seasons or even Travis Etienne on his two 1400 yard seasons and one with 12 TD. We have to factor in Chubb's age and injuries and we have to evaluate if Etienne has lost a step or played injured last year and how much the new decision makers love Tuten. That's what makes these kind of discussions very useful. I plan to put some posts up this month where I'll start the discussion with my opinion of various situations and state where I'm confident or not and hope to learn some things I haven't thought up in these debates.

Well thought out, great discussion! I think what got me was when you said Najee cannot be a league winner. Why not? If he is being drafted as RB39 and finishes as RB19, isn't that a league winner? And why wouldn't you want to click on him into your starting lineup as your RB3? I am not saying I would want him as my RB1 or RB2, but RB3 is still a weekly starter in most leagues, right? I would be very happy starting him every single week as my starting RB3. Now, if we are talking about RB2, I will change my tone.

I don’t think RB19 can be a league winner. It can be a nice value and a reliable contributor but he’s not going to be the difference between you and the other teams in the league. He might give a slight advantage at flex but he’s not winning you weeks or making other players bang their heads for missing out on him. Aaron Jones last year was RB19 in 0.5 ppr. He was good but he didn’t give teams some massive advantage.

 

[TheWinz]

I don’t think RB19 can be a league winner. It can be a nice value and a reliable contributor but he’s not going to be the difference between you and the other teams in the league. He might give a slight advantage at flex but he’s not winning you weeks or making other players bang their heads for missing out on him. Aaron Jones last year was RB19 in 0.5 ppr. He was good but he didn’t give teams some massive advantage.

That's where we differ in our thinking. Aaron Jones finished last year as RB19, but where was he drafted? I checked back, using last year's subscriber contest pricing, and he was ranked exactly RB19. Of course a league winner isn't someone who finishes where they were projected. But someone ranked RB39 finishing RB19 can certainly be considered a league winner. Last year Bucky Irving was RB14 and I assure you everyone would consider him a league winner, even though he wasn't even a RB1. Your FF league winner is likely the team that had the most players outperform their ranking, so why wouldn't a RB39 who finished RB19 be a league winner? There isn't just a single NFL player who can be called a league winner every year.

Anyway, all I am saying is FBG's RB39 ranking is wrong! Najee will finish higher, and I guarantee it. I can't say the same for Omarion's RB23 ranking, but it may be true as well.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I don’t think RB19 can be a league winner. It can be a nice value and a reliable contributor but he’s not going to be the difference between you and the other teams in the league. He might give a slight advantage at flex but he’s not winning you weeks or making other players bang their heads for missing out on him. Aaron Jones last year was RB19 in 0.5 ppr. He was good but he didn’t give teams some massive advantage.

That's where we differ in our thinking. Aaron Jones finished last year as RB19, but where was he drafted? I checked back, using last year's subscriber contest pricing, and he was ranked exactly RB19. Of course a league winner isn't someone who finishes where they were projected. But someone ranked RB39 finishing RB19 can certainly be considered a league winner. Last year Bucky Irving was RB14 and I assure you everyone would consider him a league winner, even though he wasn't even a RB1. Your FF league winner is likely the team that had the most players outperform their ranking, so why wouldn't a RB39 who finished RB19 be a league winner? There isn't just a single NFL player who can be called a league winner every year.

Anyway, all I am saying is FBG's RB39 ranking is wrong! Najee will finish higher, and I guarantee it. I can't say the same for Omarion's RB23 ranking, but it may be true as well.

Irving was a league winner because he was a free agent addition putting up RB1 numbers down the stretch. If you're starting the RB19 every week, he's not winning your league. You can win your league despite him if your other players are great.

 

[Ilov80s]

I don’t think RB19 can be a league winner. It can be a nice value and a reliable contributor but he’s not going to be the difference between you and the other teams in the league. He might give a slight advantage at flex but he’s not winning you weeks or making other players bang their heads for missing out on him. Aaron Jones last year was RB19 in 0.5 ppr. He was good but he didn’t give teams some massive advantage.

That's where we differ in our thinking. Aaron Jones finished last year as RB19, but where was he drafted? I checked back, using last year's subscriber contest pricing, and he was ranked exactly RB19. Of course a league winner isn't someone who finishes where they were projected. But someone ranked RB39 finishing RB19 can certainly be considered a league winner. Last year Bucky Irving was RB14 and I assure you everyone would consider him a league winner, even though he wasn't even a RB1. Your FF league winner is likely the team that had the most players outperform their ranking, so why wouldn't a RB39 who finished RB19 be a league winner? There isn't just a single NFL player who can be called a league winner every year.

Anyway, all I am saying is FBG's RB39 ranking is wrong! Najee will finish higher, and I guarantee it. I can't say the same for Omarion's RB23 ranking, but it may be true as well.

Irving was a league winner because he was a free agent addition putting up RB1 numbers down the stretch. If you're starting the RB19 every week, he's not winning your league. You can win your league despite him if your other players are great.

Another great point. Not all RB19s are created equal.

 

[TheWinz]

I don’t think RB19 can be a league winner. It can be a nice value and a reliable contributor but he’s not going to be the difference between you and the other teams in the league. He might give a slight advantage at flex but he’s not winning you weeks or making other players bang their heads for missing out on him. Aaron Jones last year was RB19 in 0.5 ppr. He was good but he didn’t give teams some massive advantage.

That's where we differ in our thinking. Aaron Jones finished last year as RB19, but where was he drafted? I checked back, using last year's subscriber contest pricing, and he was ranked exactly RB19. Of course a league winner isn't someone who finishes where they were projected. But someone ranked RB39 finishing RB19 can certainly be considered a league winner. Last year Bucky Irving was RB14 and I assure you everyone would consider him a league winner, even though he wasn't even a RB1. Your FF league winner is likely the team that had the most players outperform their ranking, so why wouldn't a RB39 who finished RB19 be a league winner? There isn't just a single NFL player who can be called a league winner every year.

Anyway, all I am saying is FBG's RB39 ranking is wrong! Najee will finish higher, and I guarantee it. I can't say the same for Omarion's RB23 ranking, but it may be true as well.

Irving was a league winner because he was a free agent addition putting up RB1 numbers down the stretch. If you're starting the RB19 every week, he's not winning your league. You can win your league despite him if your other players are great.

Tyjae Spears scored more than Irving from weeks 15-17 last year. Does that make him a league winner too? What about Ameer Abdullah, who also scored more than Irving? Spears and Abdullah were RB5 and RB8 during most league's fantasy playoffs, but no one would consider them league winners.

I am thoroughly convinced all Najee haters hate him simply because he is slow and boring. But I am also thoroughly convinced Harbaugh loves him because he is slow and boring. Time will tell. I say he will finish with 225+ touches/8+ TD's, and no lower than RB24 (a RB2). Let's stop arguing and spit out our projections, shall we? He will blow away his current RB39 ranking! What say you?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

It would be more of a factor if the incumbent (Najee) wasn't also a 1st round pick, but he is.

Does that matter in Year 5 when the team that drafted didn't even attempt to bring him back? We aren't comparing 2021 Najee vs 2025 Hampton. CEH was down to 71 carries by Year 3 as a first round pick.

You surely aren't comparing CEH to Najee, are you? Why do you hate a RB who has led all RB's in touches over the last 4 seasons, and has finished no lower than a RB2? Now you don't even want him as your RB3? Also, upside is overrated. Actual stats are all that matter in FF, unless your league awards extra points for explosiveness. Honest question - do you think Najee will have at least 200 touches?

I didn't compare CEH to Najee. I pointed out that draft capital 5 years ago is irrelevant today and provided you an example. If Najee earns 200 carries, it's based on his 2025 play not his draft capital. Agree?

Where did I say I didn't want Najee as a RB3? I've said he's someone I would never want to click into my starting lineup unless it was a bye week fill-in.

I'll agree to disagree on upside is overrated. Of course stats matter who is saying otherwise? Let's look at some guys side by side in ESPN ADP in the middle rounds. First, there's Calvin Ridley vs Jameson Williams. Ridley could certainly outscore Williams this year. But which one of those guys could go 1200-9? To me it is Jameson and not close. He's in a better offense, he's younger, and he started to break out last year. Ridley is the solid WR3 now in his 30's with a rookie QB on a projected bad team. Williams is a play to win pick and Ridley is a safe play not to lose pick. Also between 70 and 80 are Pollard, Pacheco, Kaleb, and Henderson. Pollard and Pacheco are going slightly ahead of the rookies but what is their realistic ceiling? Pollard feels like last years 1200-5 and Pacheco lower than that. I'd rather take my chance that Kaleb gets the Najee role and is a better player and would absolutely take the chance that Henderson is the most explosive player on NE and will lead them in touches. The rookie upside here far outweighs the safety of Pollard or Pacheco.

Najee seems personal for you. I've acknowledged several times he could out-touch Hampton. Forget all of our personal evaluations of Hampton. The NFL evaluated him as a first round RB and historically first round RB do very well in their rookie seasons. Some start slow and finish strong because they end up proving they are the better back. It's an odds thing and not personal to Najee. The first round rookie RB has a much higher probability of hitting a ceiling than a 5th year RB that his old team let go without even attempting to resign him. I don't think Najee is a dustball yet either I'm just evaluating the situation and going with the odds. And I'm leaving plenty of room that Najee could out touch Hampton or force a 50-50 split and destroy Hampton's upside scenario.
Willing to discuss and debate realistic scenarios here. Comparing 2021 Najee to 2025 Hampton is not realistic or fair. What Najee has done for 4 years is irrelevant. Different team, different situation, better competition, and more usage on his legs. Similarly, we aren't going to rank Nick Chubb on his 2020-2022 seasons or even Travis Etienne on his two 1400 yard seasons and one with 12 TD. We have to factor in Chubb's age and injuries and we have to evaluate if Etienne has lost a step or played injured last year and how much the new decision makers love Tuten. That's what makes these kind of discussions very useful. I plan to put some posts up this month where I'll start the discussion with my opinion of various situations and state where I'm confident or not and hope to learn some things I haven't thought up in these debates.

Well thought out, great discussion! I think what got me was when you said Najee cannot be a league winner. Why not? If he is being drafted as RB39 and finishes as RB19, isn't that a league winner? And why wouldn't you want to click on him into your starting lineup as your RB3? I am not saying I would want him as my RB1 or RB2, but RB3 is still a weekly starter in most leagues, right? I would be very happy starting him every single week as my starting RB3. Now, if we are talking about RB2, I will change my tone.

I don’t think RB19 can be a league winner. It can be a nice value and a reliable contributor but he’s not going to be the difference between you and the other teams in the league. He might give a slight advantage at flex but he’s not winning you weeks or making other players bang their heads for missing out on him. Aaron Jones last year was RB19 in 0.5 ppr. He was good but he didn’t give teams some massive advantage.

Nice depth piece - especially for BYE coverage. Very likely to be a steady hand flex type.

I agree he’s probably not a league-winner, even if Hampton goes down. But sometimes consistency is worth more than anything in this game.

Anyway, this topic keeps steering into the weeds of Hampton vs Harris, which is an entertaining/amusing exchange, but not entirely on topic.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I am thoroughly convinced all Najee haters hate him simply because he is slow and boring. But I am also thoroughly convinced Harbaugh loves him because he is slow and boring. Time will tell. I say he will finish with 225+ touches/8+ TD's, and no lower than RB24 (a RB2).

I’m gonna co-sign on this one.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I don’t think RB19 can be a league winner. It can be a nice value and a reliable contributor but he’s not going to be the difference between you and the other teams in the league. He might give a slight advantage at flex but he’s not winning you weeks or making other players bang their heads for missing out on him. Aaron Jones last year was RB19 in 0.5 ppr. He was good but he didn’t give teams some massive advantage.

That's where we differ in our thinking. Aaron Jones finished last year as RB19, but where was he drafted? I checked back, using last year's subscriber contest pricing, and he was ranked exactly RB19. Of course a league winner isn't someone who finishes where they were projected. But someone ranked RB39 finishing RB19 can certainly be considered a league winner. Last year Bucky Irving was RB14 and I assure you everyone would consider him a league winner, even though he wasn't even a RB1. Your FF league winner is likely the team that had the most players outperform their ranking, so why wouldn't a RB39 who finished RB19 be a league winner? There isn't just a single NFL player who can be called a league winner every year.

Anyway, all I am saying is FBG's RB39 ranking is wrong! Najee will finish higher, and I guarantee it. I can't say the same for Omarion's RB23 ranking, but it may be true as well.

Irving was a league winner because he was a free agent addition putting up RB1 numbers down the stretch. If you're starting the RB19 every week, he's not winning your league. You can win your league despite him if your other players are great.

Tyjae Spears scored more than Irving from weeks 15-17 last year. Does that make him a league winner too? What about Ameer Abdullah, who also scored more than Irving? Spears and Abdullah were RB5 and RB8 during most league's fantasy playoffs, but no one would consider them league winners.

I am thoroughly convinced all Najee haters hate him simply because he is slow and boring. But I am also thoroughly convinced Harbaugh loves him because he is slow and boring. Time will tell. I say he will finish with 225+ touches/8+ TD's, and no lower than RB24 (a RB2). Let's stop arguing and spit out our projections, shall we? He will blow away his current RB39 ranking! What say you?

Is Najee kin to you? Thought I posted about Irving and jones and you’re back on Harris? I’m not even arguing the specific players as much as I’m discussing the archetypes and probabilities they hit their upside.

I think you could argue spears and Abdullah were league winners in playoff weeks if someone actually started them. Irving was putting up RB1 numbers before that.

 

[Ilov80s]

I don’t think RB19 can be a league winner. It can be a nice value and a reliable contributor but he’s not going to be the difference between you and the other teams in the league. He might give a slight advantage at flex but he’s not winning you weeks or making other players bang their heads for missing out on him. Aaron Jones last year was RB19 in 0.5 ppr. He was good but he didn’t give teams some massive advantage.

That's where we differ in our thinking. Aaron Jones finished last year as RB19, but where was he drafted? I checked back, using last year's subscriber contest pricing, and he was ranked exactly RB19. Of course a league winner isn't someone who finishes where they were projected. But someone ranked RB39 finishing RB19 can certainly be considered a league winner. Last year Bucky Irving was RB14 and I assure you everyone would consider him a league winner, even though he wasn't even a RB1. Your FF league winner is likely the team that had the most players outperform their ranking, so why wouldn't a RB39 who finished RB19 be a league winner? There isn't just a single NFL player who can be called a league winner every year.

Anyway, all I am saying is FBG's RB39 ranking is wrong! Najee will finish higher, and I guarantee it. I can't say the same for Omarion's RB23 ranking, but it may be true as well.

Irving was a league winner because he was a free agent addition putting up RB1 numbers down the stretch. If you're starting the RB19 every week, he's not winning your league. You can win your league despite him if your other players are great.

Tyjae Spears scored more than Irving from weeks 15-17 last year. Does that make him a league winner too? What about Ameer Abdullah, who also scored more than Irving? Spears and Abdullah were RB5 and RB8 during most league's fantasy playoffs, but no one would consider them league winners.

The difference betewene Bucky and Spears is pretty simple: Irving was being played for his big weeks, Spears wasn't.

Bucky: from week 6 to 17, he only had 2 games under 12 points. Weeks 12-17, he surpassed 20 points 3 times. He was a player who teams likely added off waivers, saw enough production for him to insert him into their lineups and he performed well enough to stay in there. Teams that were fighting for playoff spots and position and then winning in the playoffs who had Bucky Irving on their team were likely playing him every week down the final 6 weeks or so of the season.

Spears: He was getting drafted, not being added off waivers. He didn't have a double digit fantasy points game until week 4 so it was unlikely he was in line-ups if he was even still on the roster that drafted him. Over the next 10 weeks he scored a TOTAL of 15 fantasy points. So Spears spent most of the season likely in the free agent pool. I suppose somewhere there are a few teams who made it to the semi-finals of their league and decided to start Spears even though he was coming off two performances of 1 for 3 yards and 7 for 28 yards. Spears scored 20+ points in week 16 and 17. He was a difference maker in those 2 weeks but he did absolutely nothing to help any teams reach that point, he was a total dud for who ever drafted him and it would take the most desperate of situations for anyone to have started him in the semifinals.

Ameer: Again he did almost nothing all year, then the final 3 weeks delivered solid (but not spectacular games). 16, 17, 16. I tip my cap to the genius who had him in their fantasy lineups for their 3 game playoff run.

And here is my final piece for why Bucky was sort of a league winner and the others were not. Fantasy Pros reports across all leagues, Bucky Irving was on 15% of all championship teams. That was the 4th highest % in fantasy tying him with Chase, Taylor and Nabers. ESPN put out a similar list, Bucky was player #4. Neither Spears nor Ameer appeared in the top 50.

Tying it all back, Aaron Jones, who was my statistical comp for why a Najee RB19 season isn't a league winner. He was 44th on ESPN's list.


NOTE: this is all 0.5 ppr and talking about leagues where you set a line-up and not best ball which is a whole different animal