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Its not a crazy Idea and your not going to get much heat for that opinion. Like Addai I think there are reasons at this point to pick other RB's ahead of LT in a dynasty draft. If I am on the clock this year in a re-draft I would pick LT no later than number 4 and possibly even take him at number one.
Hey its all about how you feel/think any given player is going to perform in a giving year. There was a good first half of last season were LT was sinking your fantasy team. How many times have we come to expect that player "X" was the pick, only to have them just disappear. Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Ahman Green ring a few bells for ya. Steven Jackson took awhile to perform upto his draft position as well last year. Not being a wise butt, just saying there is no law that states that LT is going to be the best performing back next year. A good chance but no guarantee.FUBAR said:
Never herduvum. Ahman was never the top back in the league, the year he fell out of top 5(ish), he was injured.
Not predicting an injury, and I definitely don't wish it on him. I doubt the chargers are going to fall apart. The only point I was making was in response to your quizzical "how do I not take LT". So you can be argumentative just for the sake of arguing or not I don't care. Its like that little Hillary in 2008 thing you had going on, there ain't no guarantee. A little less smarmy and just you stating you think LT is going to be the best back next year would have made your point.Never herduvum. Ahman was never the top back in the league, the year he fell out of top 5(ish), he was injured.
LJ fell off mostly due to his injury, although the Chiefs stinking didn't help.
Alexander was a stud, then missed 6 games, then 5 and never was quite the same - but that's due in large part to injury.
SJax missed 4 games last year and his team stunk.
So, you're predicting an injury and the Chargers to fall apart as a team.
or you're just speculating that one of the other RBs could beat him out - might happen, but the chances are better for LT to be #1 and if not, still a top 5 RB than anyone else.
Not predicting an injury, and I definitely don't wish it on him. I doubt the chargers are going to fall apart. The only point I was making was in response to your quizzical "how do I not take LT". So you can be argumentative just for the sake of arguing or not I don't care. Its like that little Hillary in 2008 thing you had going on, there ain't no guarantee. A little less smarmy and just you stating you think LT is going to be the best back next year would have made your point.Never herduvum. Ahman was never the top back in the league, the year he fell out of top 5(ish), he was injured.
LJ fell off mostly due to his injury, although the Chiefs stinking didn't help.
Alexander was a stud, then missed 6 games, then 5 and never was quite the same - but that's due in large part to injury.
SJax missed 4 games last year and his team stunk.
So, you're predicting an injury and the Chargers to fall apart as a team.
or you're just speculating that one of the other RBs could beat him out - might happen, but the chances are better for LT to be #1 and if not, still a top 5 RB than anyone else.
Nevermind. This isn't worth getting into with you.
I find it interesting you use a 5 year span, when Addai has only been in the NFL for two years, and the previous three years you cite were collegiate seasons which are shorter. Additionally, in college MANY RBs platoon. That's just the way the college game goes. Additionally, the first season Addai was being worked into the game... Rhodes wasn't stealing touched from Addai, it was the other way around, Addai was stealing touches from Rhodes.Last season Keith didn't take "significant touches" away on a regular basis. He had 3 games where he had over ten touches, one of the Addai missed, the other two were blowouts, and Keith came in for garbage time. I think the issue with number of touches is not that he can't handle the load, but rather the Colts were extremely conservative last season, and in general tend to rest their starters more than most teams.
I agree that his three seasons at LSU are less relevant than his time in the NFL, but when the evidence provided by his collegiate track record coincides with that provided thus far by his time in the NFL, I think it likely to represent a trend. I don't see much evidence of platooning being more common in college, particularly with players talented enough to be 1st round draft choices in the NFL. Those guys generally carry the mail full time in college (admittedly based on my own recollection rather than specific research)."Proven unable to handle 400 touches" might have been too strong, I agree, but he certainly hasn't come close to proving that he can handle more than about 300 touches, and the bulk of the evidence, for me, points to continued use as the lead component of a very productive RBBC, with touches around 300/year. Would you concede that a 300 touch workload makes him highly unlikely to finish in the top-5 year in and year out?
I am not buying the "it was a down year for RBs, so Addai proved nothing with his Top 5 performance last year," argument. If it was a down year for RBs, it was a down year for ALL RBs, including Addai. People cannot single out certain RBs, and say they were the beneficiary of all other RBs. If that is the case, on which basis do we choose the RBs that benefited, and which ones were hurt by it? Add in the fact that Addai was injured, and his stats are even more impressive. When analyzing Pro Bowl appearences of players past, do we say, "Oh, well that Pro Bowl is not as impressive, because it was a down year for RBs." I know I don't. I say, "So and so has five pro bowl appearences(period)"
Switz has also done a great job defending Addai as a top back. Just an addition, in my league, only LT & Westbrook outscored Addai at RB in 2007. Those 2007 #'s in 2006 ( a strong RB yr) translate to 8th overall RB in 2006, behind LT, SJAX, LJ, Gore, Westy, FWP & Tiki. Addai definately looks like a top 5 option to me, even with ADP & Lynch now in the mix.
Reading comprehension down?
The bold portion is a horrible posting. 2007 was a down year for RBs because (IIRC) the only starters that played 16 games were LT, Portis, Edge, White, and Thomas Jones. In 2006, LT, SJax, LJ, Gore, Parker, MJD, Bush, Rudi, Addai, TJones, Edge, Jamal, Dillon, Dunn, and JJones all played 16. It shouldn't be difficult to see how a RB who played all or 90% of the season would rank higher in 2007 than 2006; nor can we simply assume they will rank the same in 2008.KoolKat said:
1.) Addai's history indicates that he'll likely see a maximum of 300 or so touches/year.2.) With the exception of last year, when there were a freakishly high number of RB injuries, the top-5 RBs average about 400 touches in any given year.For Addai to finish top-5 either his workload will need to go up, or RBs will need to continue to get injured at a rate equal to that of last year, and unlike that of the previous 10+. Counting on either of these things to happen seems to be the unlikely assumption here.
All I can do is refer you to Switz's posts, in which he proves empirically that there is no reason to assume Addai will suffer a lack of carries. Also, Addai's history is just two years old. Shouldn't people look at the increased percentage of touches from year one to year two to give actual evidence that he can handle an increased load? I would also like to see evidence of your claim that Top 5 RBs average about 400 touches, rather than just stating it like it is an obvious fact.Also, what do you have to say about the fact that Addai was RB8 while being in a RBBC, in a year that RBs were not injured more often than normal(2006)? Does that not prove anything either?
in the end, all I've been arguing is he isn't the #1 RB, at least you can agree on that. Now, who is? Good arguments can be made for AD, SJax, and LT - so that's my top tier. Addai falls just below that, at #4 - just ahead of Lynch, Gore, Westbrook, and a few others.
I don't know where he got the 400 touch stat from, but let's look at the top RBs the last few years:2007: LT - 375 touches, Westbrook - 368 touches, AD - 257 touches2006: LT - 404 touches, LJ - 457 touches, SJax - 436 touches2005: Alexander - 385 touches, LJ - 369 touches, LT - 390 touchesAverages:#1 - 388 touches#2 - 398 touches (top 2 - 393)#3 - 361 touches (top 3 - 382)I'm tempted to throw AD's # out, as it's a wide deviation, but maybe you'll want to argue that Addai can experience the same success?
who's ignoring it? As I stated above: "It shouldn't be difficult to see how a RB who played all or 90% of the season would rank higher in 2007 than 2006; nor can we simply assume they will rank the same in 2008." My stats show me Addai played 15 games last year, that's over 90%.FWIW, per game, Addai was #5 last year.
Might want to polish up your vocab a bit man -- I'm pretty sure that you don't know what either "prove" or "empirically" mean if you actually believe the above statement.
His history, college and pro, indcates that he is a RBBC back. He has never carried a full load on any level (not counting high school, which I have no data on).
It is an obvious fact. You should be perfectly capable of using nfl.com, fbguys, or pro-football-reference to check the stats. I provided the average number or touches for RBs in 2004 - 2007 in an earlier post. If you need me to go through the math with you you are out of luck, but you should add up the number of touchces for each guy in the top 5 and then divide by 5.
It says that he'll likely finish in the 8-ish range moving forward to me. He has always been a RBBC back. Why would that change in 2008?
Thomas was one year ahead of Barry Sanders and two years ahead of Emmitt Smith.Nonetheless, he was phenomenal, IRL and in fantasy. If Addai even approaches Thurman's status (and he might), then there are going to be a lot of people in this thread who were dead, and I mean dead, wrong.Thurman Thomas was a complete stud. I'm a Sooner fan, but that guy scared the shi'ite out of me. We shut him down pretty well, but I was alway nervous going into the games. He kept Barry Sanders on the bench. There just ain't many guys that could have done that. Maybe Pat Jones was wrong, and Sanders should have been the full-time tailback for three years. But it was far from a no-brainer. Thurman is an all-time great.
if I was a ADP dynasty owner(wish I was), I would be concerned about him staying healthy. Hurt his first year in the NFL. Hurt his last year of college. was he hurt his 2nd year in college?
It is blatantly obvious that KoolKat cannot see the evidence right in front of him. In fact, one of the few pieces of fact in these arguments is that Addai has never carried the load at any level, and his college and NFL stats prove this. When someone makes the assumption that all of a sudden this trend will change, it is changing from a fact-based argument to an opinion. Koolkat continuously insists that no one is using facts to make an argument about Addai, when in fact his argument is the one that is lacking in facts.
1. Last year was a down year for RB due to several injuries, so these numbers are not from a typical year.2. Whether you say Addai averaged 20 touches per game or that he had 302 touches over the course of the season, it makes no difference. It will be extremely hard for him to consistently get in the top 5 with that work load based on historic averages. It is also not likely considering his history that he makes a jump from 300 to 400 touches.AnonymousBob said:
1. Injuries are irrelevant when looking at "per-game" stats. That is the entire point of looking at touches per game instead of total touches.2. His workload increased very significantly from his first to second year, explain to me why it is unlikely for his touches to increase when they have gone so far up from his first to second years. The only trend we have concerning touches in his NFL career (which is only 2 years) is that they have gone up a lot from his first to second season. Why am I to assume this trend will ot continue as he matures into a more complete football player? It is funny to me that when a guy has a bunch of touches in college, people say he has a lot of "mileage" on him and we should watch out for him breaking down quickly. Whe you have a guy like Addai who, relatively, did not have too many carries in college, "he cannot carry the load." This is why it is not a fact when you say he is unlikely to carry the load. If it were a fact, we would all be in agreement. There would be no reason to have this discussion. It is subjective to how you judge talent and ability. Many will say Addai can be a workhouse, many will say he cannot. Either way, it is not a fact, and the empirical proof tends to favor the side that says Addai can be a workhorse. Therefore, I stand by my assertion that all arguments for Addai not being elite are based on subjective opinions and assumed knowledge of the unknowable.
2006 top ten rb's:Tomlinson averaged 25 touches per game.LJ averaged 28 touches per game.SJAX averaged 27 touches per game.Gore averaged 23 touches per game.FWP averaged 23 touches per game.Westbrook averaged 21 touches per game.Tiki averaged 24 touches per game.MJD averaged 13 touches per game.Rudi averaged 22 touches per game.Deuce averaged 18 touches per game.Why is it crazy to say Addai shouldn't be or can't be the #1 rb but it's considered normal to select a guy that averaged even FEWER touches, plays on a weaker team and has even more injury concerns?Addai >> ADP isn't as absurd as some of you are making it sound.
I really don't know what else to say to you, man. You're not accepting opinions as definitive reasons for arguments against Addai, yet you claim that it is "reasonable" to assume another increase in touches next year. You state that this is likely to happen, when it has never happened yet in his college or NFL career. Per game stats do seem to negate injuries when you look at it strictly in a concrete manner. If you think about it a little, however, when several stud RB that tend to touch the ball 400 times get injured significantly and cannot carry the load like they once did, it can have an impact. The list that was posted left a few work horse RBs out either due to their injuries affecting their season or just because they were forgotten. Either way, Steven Jackson, LJ, Lendale, Willie Parker, Lynch, and Graham all had significant touches per game. If you look at the starting backs in the NFL, Addai is closer to the low end (when it comes to touches) than the high end. I would also be worried that if they ever get someone more talented than Keith in the backfield splitting time, his touches would actually decrease rather than increase. We shall see...
Because AD is the best RB to come out in 10 years, and Addai is an average NFL talent.
That's pretty easy to answer. Prior to his injury, ADP was closer to 22 touches per game, more than Addai. It's not unreasonable to expect him to increase from his rookie season and from a dynasty perspective, definitely increase once Taylor isn't around. Plus, ADP did more with his touches than Addai did with his. Minnesota may have a weaker offense but they don't have a weaker rushing offense. And, I wouldn't have injury concerns with someone who can return from a ligament tear within 3 weeks.
My list was not designed to leave any one paticular player off. It was the top ten rb's from 2007. I should have clarified that because I didn't want to make it seem as though I was giving Addai an edge one way or the other.
But he DID get injured. Prior to Addai getting hurt he was lighting it up as well. I don't consider it a good idea to grab some facts when they support your opinion but dismiss other facts when it doesn't go along with your belief. ADP had injury concerns when he came out of college. Nothing extreme but he had some questions nonetheless. He has done nothing to answer HIS ability to carry the load. Aside from ADP himself, who else was injured that negatively affected Minnesota's offense? Chester Taylor was hurt which HELPED ADP but the Colts had a few more injuries yet Addai managed to have a very good year. Again, I'm not sure why you dismiss the facts of one player's team but brush aside questions from the guy you like but imo that's not a great way to form unbiased rankings for the upcoming season.
If Matt Millen drafted a guy in the first round you would have reason to be a lot more skeptical. But Bill Polian has been pretty good at drafting players. To not factor his drafting record into things is an oversight. Addai lead all rookies in rushing yards while splitting time so I'm not sure why you would call him average.
Unfortunately, throughout this thread, I believe it's become apparent that a number of people just don't want to admit they were wrong about Addai. Everything he has done as a Pro, including his combine, and his draft position, measure up to elite NFL RBs. He was the #1 rookie RB the year he came out. He finished top-5 in fantasy terms the first season he was a fulltime starter. Around the league he's viewed as one of the best RBs.The only knock people are continuously using, is durability. And in this they re completely hypocritical. Most would say ADP was an elite talent, despite his injury. But they would say Addai is not, and then point to his injury as the "proof."I dropped out of this thread a while back, when people made it manifest that no amount of evidence would change their mind about Addai. I don't know if it's pride/ego, but that's my guess.
I'm sorry, but I just don't agree with this. Most people that are arguing "against" Addai still have him ranked as a top 5-6 RB in dynasty terms. You're making it sound like there are hordes of people that are saying he's worthless and that isn't the case at all. But, being a very good top 5-6 RB because of what he's done so far and his situation does not equal him being elite. And I personally don't think he will ever be elite or lead the league in rushing or fantasy points. Maybe we just have different definitions of elite, but Addai isn't it for me. That may change after this year (or longer). It probably won't. I'm not surprised he fizzled out in the 2nd half of last year. I would suspect he does that again. That's an opinion, but it is based on what I've seen on the field and his prior history. If he does it again next year (another poor 2nd half), it will simply reinforce how I feel about him. It doesn't mean he's worthless, but as pointed out earlier, he commands a top 5 price tag but is almost assured to never break that ceiling (at least I don't think he can). In a few years, I think he's going to be much like McGahee or Portis. A very solid RB who's a virtual lock for a top 10 finish but will have an extremely hard time cracking the top 5.As far as comparing him to ADP, the reason why it may SEEM hypocritical is because when comparing the two, the talent levels aren't in the same ballpark. ADP is an ELITE TALENT. If you can't see that when comparing ADP and Addai that there is a definite disparity, then there's not much else to discuss or argue. Now, whether or not ADP can stay healthy is a definite concern, but that in no way takes away the fact that he is an elite TALENT. Addai is a very good RB, more talented than I initially thought when I watched him more this past year, but that's about it. I can easily name at least 5 RBs that are more talented than him even though they may be in worse situations and probably won't put up the numbers he does. Addai doesn't hold a candle to ADP talent-wise. My continued position has nothing to do with not wanting to admit I'm wrong or ego. I'm perfectly fine with admitting I'm wrong. I was wrong about Henry last year. I was wrong about Ronnie Brown last year. I don't think I'm wrong in saying Addai is the #5/#6 dynasty back but is not elite. It's my opinion and my definition of elite and nothing I've read here has come even close to convincing me otherwise. This coming year will say a lot about him. If he finishes in the top 3-5 again this year and shows that he doesn't tail off as the year goes on, I'll be 100% fine with admitting I was wrong. I don't think I'll have to do that though. It's OK to be very good and ranked #5. It's being made out to be a crime to have him that high and not call him elite. It's not.
Nevermind. This isn't worth getting into with you.