Adjusting VBD Values for Yardage Bonuses? (1 Viewer)

[Seven Costanza]

Does anyone have any suggestions on how to tweak the VBD stat projections for a yardage bonus at 125 yards, not 100 yards??

In my league, RB, WR, and TE get a flat 5 point bonus for reaching 125 rushing or receiving yards. I see where the stat projections within the VBD include a column that estimates how many 100 yard games a player might have. Any thoughts on how to convert this to the bonus being at 125 yards, not 100 yards??

Thanks guys!!

 

[meyerj31]

Don't really need to adjust your baseline, unless the baseline has more than 0 projected 125 yard games. I can't imagine many WR36 or RB24 (or whatever your baseline is in those leagues) to have many 125+ yard games.

All you do is add the totals (+5 x 5=25, for instance, for Calvin since he'll probably have 5 125+ games...) to each player and let your VBD calculations reshuffle the values.

I can add this kind of calculation in 30 seconds in my spreadsheets. But I guess it depends on how flexible you constructed your tool.

Likely it is just going to marginally increase the top guys who will get the bonuses relative to everyone else. I could see, for instance, Calvin being worth 51 instead of 47 or something like that. Honestly don't think it's going to change your VBD much at all because 125+ games are rare and hard to predict.

 

[steveski]

Not the answer you're looking for, but your rankings aren't really going to change much, if at all, by adding a 125 yard bonus. 125+ yard games are pretty infrequent, so I'd bet your rankings wouldn't even change much (besides maybe the top 2-3 at RB/WR) if you left the bonus category out of your rankings altogether. I think putting in a 100 yard bonus would throw the software off even more, since 100 yard games are more common. If it were me, I'd leave the bonus out and just keep it in the back of my mind that the top 2 or 3 at each position are probably bumped up a tad bit.

 

[Seven Costanza]

I agree with both of you....my baseline player most likely would be unaffected and it would probably just boost up the top 5 - 8 WR/RB a little bit. So when looking within one position it probably won make much difference. I guess it could possibly make a small difference when I blend all my positions together.

I actually scheduled out all the games for the last 3 year in which a WR or TE went over 125 yards. 72 times in 2012, 79 in 2011, and 69 times in 2010. Only 3-4 players each year hit that milestone more than 3 times (i think 3 or less could definitely be ignored as it only adds 15 total fantasy points for the entire season). Calvin had 8 games last year over 125, crazy...Andre had 4 and Marshall had 4.

I think I agree....I think I will just tack on a few bonus points for maybe the top 5 or 6 WR.....does this seem fair....6 for Calvin, 4 for Andre, 4 for AJ Green, 4 for Dez, 3 for Marshall, 3 for Demaryius, 3 for Julio, and 3 for VJax??

 

[butcher boy]

I have a more extreme, but similar situation to you. The way my league awards RB/WR/TE yardage points are 3 points for 75 yards, then 3 points for each additional 25 yards after.

The only accurate way I account for this is to go into the projections and change the values in the 100 yard games column to try and predict the number of times each player gets that bonus. It's a bit of work that involves historical data and averages and such, but it's worth it because getting it right significantly changes the rankings.

There probably isn't a whole lot of variation between 100 and 125 yard games but it might be worth it to count the number of each some of the stud players had and compare. For example, last year Ray Rice went over 100 yards 5 times, but never went over 125 once.

 

[GregR]

Anything that gets the player's total fantasy points to the right total would work. Though if you use the actual weekly scoring projections you could throw those off of course.

If it were me and you were going from 100yd to 125yd bonuses, if the software only supported 100yd bonuses I would probably just lower the points awarded for it to reflect the odds.

That is, let's say in previous years there were 200 occurrences of 100yds and 150 occurrences of 125 yards. So only 3/4 of the times a player is projected for 100yd bonus would you expect him to hit 125yd as well. If that were the case I'd make 100yd games worth 3/4 of what your league gives as your 125yd bonus, and on average it should come out about right.

Barring that, you could come up with your own 125yd projections and go overwrite the 100yd ones with it. Though if you like to use the site's projections, you have to keep applying or merging in your edits which can be painful. So unless you area already working off your own projections, I'd probably just alter the scoring for the bonus like I said and call it close enough.

ETA: I'd be less likely to use that for butcher boy's situation though, as is would vary the result between players by far more than I would want to average things out to.

 

[Seven Costanza]

FBG doesnt have any weekly projections on the site for pre draft correct? I know during the season they do weekly projections, but nothing i could use for pre draft right?

Side note- I am building my own excel schedule to convert the FBG projected stats to fantasy points in my league.....I am linking all the point calculations to one "stats" tab and listing the players on this tab in the same order the FBG VBD schedule has them......so, when the projections change all I have to do is copy the stats from the latest VBD projections and do a paste values into my "stats" tab over top of the stats currently there and my formulas will still work....

 

[GregR]

FBG doesnt have any weekly projections on the site for pre draft correct? I know during the season they do weekly projections, but nothing i could use for pre draft right?

Side note- I am building my own excel schedule to convert the FBG projected stats to fantasy points in my league.....I am linking all the point calculations to one "stats" tab and listing the players on this tab in the same order the FBG VBD schedule has them......so, when the projections change all I have to do is copy the stats from the latest VBD projections and do a paste values into my "stats" tab over top of the stats currently there and my formulas will still work....

Draft Dominator has 100yd games, and also as an area for weighting the performance for a given week. I believe the normal set of projections just have a ramp up for rookie QBs, new starters, etc, where they will get fewer fantasy points in their first few starts.

 

[Seven Costanza]

Thanks Greg!