ADP, and the 2024 2nd Round (1 Viewer)

[jm192]

Guys I really don't love drafting from this group--at least in the 2nd round:

Henry, Kupp, Adams, London.

I have Olave higher than all 3 of the WR's listed. Zero shame taking Olave mid to late 2nd, especially if PPR.
I've really come around on Pacheco. No RB competition. I think he could leap frog several of the guys ranked in front of him.
ETN was really inefficent last year. I worry he sees less touches this year. But he should be more efficient.
I still feel good about Kyren and Puka.

Wilson I've seen go in the 1st round a lot. Getting him anywhere in the 2nd, I'd be pretty darn happy.

MH2: I think the 2nd round is the right place. I'm not upset to get him there.

 

[MrJimiT]

Guys I really don't love drafting from this group--at least in the 2nd round:

Henry, Kupp, Adams, London.

I have Olave higher than all 3 of the WR's listed. Zero shame taking Olave mid to late 2nd, especially if PPR.
I've really come around on Pacheco. No RB competition. I think he could leap frog several of the guys ranked in front of him.
ETN was really inefficent last year. I worry he sees less touches this year. But he should be more efficient.
I still feel good about Kyren and Puka.

Wilson I've seen go in the 1st round a lot. Getting him anywhere in the 2nd, I'd be pretty darn happy.

MH2: I think the 2nd round is the right place. I'm not upset to get him there.

Hey JM, you're picking 8th in my draft. I'm down in No-Man's Land #11. In my mocks, I haven't seen WIlson available to me at 1.11 let alone 2.02. Has he been falling mid 2nd in your mocks?

 

[jm192]

Guys I really don't love drafting from this group--at least in the 2nd round:

Henry, Kupp, Adams, London.

I have Olave higher than all 3 of the WR's listed. Zero shame taking Olave mid to late 2nd, especially if PPR.
I've really come around on Pacheco. No RB competition. I think he could leap frog several of the guys ranked in front of him.
ETN was really inefficent last year. I worry he sees less touches this year. But he should be more efficient.
I still feel good about Kyren and Puka.

Wilson I've seen go in the 1st round a lot. Getting him anywhere in the 2nd, I'd be pretty darn happy.

MH2: I think the 2nd round is the right place. I'm not upset to get him there.

Hey JM, you're picking 8th in my draft. I'm down in No-Man's Land #11. In my mocks, I haven't seen WIlson available to me at 1.11 let alone 2.02. Has he been falling mid 2nd in your mocks?

I've had 2 actual drafts (0.5 ppr) where he's fallen to 2.02 in both. Obviously it being full PPR makes a difference.

If it goes super chalk, I would think AJ Brown goes 9, Wilson goes 10.

I do feel your pain being at 11. I prefer anywhere in the top 8. Feel like I lucked out getting 8.

 

[kyoun1e]

One of the constant drumbeats I'm hearing this pre-season is about how the 2nd round generally sucks. Everyone seems to hate the 2nd round players.

Current Draft Calc 12-team PPR ADP has the 2nd round like this:
2.01 - Garret Wilson
2.02 - MH2
2.03 - Puka
2.04 - Kyren
2.05 - Henry
2.06 - ETN
2.07 - Kupp
2.08 - Pacheco
2.09 - Adams
2.10 - London
2.11 - Achane
2.12 - Deebo

Personally I really like about 3/4 of this list at ADP, with only Kyren, Henry, Adams, & London as players I'm not as high on there. Honestly it's hard to do better than Pacheco at 2.08 if you start with an elite WR at 1.05, or with Wilson, Puka or MH2 early 2nd if you start with JT or Barkley at 1.11-1.12. If I'm picking 1-4, and Kupp falls to me I'm counting my blessings, but if not, I can see reaching a little for Nico - though Deebo still offers excellent value there.

I feel like this year's ADP offers a lot of good value in each of the first 4 rounds - after that it's kind of a crap shoot and difficult to predict anyway. So what is it? Is the 2nd round really that bad this year, or do people just like to complain about stuff? Or is it mostly the WR-WR folks who don't want to make an adjustment this year?

2.01 - Garret Wilson - This is around the right spot for him
2.02 - MH2 - I like him a lot and I think this is way too high. I think it is probably above his ceiling. If you look at Michael Thomas's rookie year, which was a top 10 rookie WR performance of all time. It would probably end up being WR 9 or 10 this year. He would have to have a season like Chase or Jefferson to pay this off. Their is a lot of taregt competition in Arizona.
2.03 - Puka - I think he is 2nd to Kupp. That makes this about a round too high
2.04 - Kyren - A player I struggle with. His ceiling justifies this, but his floor is low enough it is terrifying to draft him this high.
2.05 - Henry - at least 2 rounds too high. Baltimore spreads the wealth among RB's.
2.06 - ETN - Again he is not going to get the workload to make this pay off.
2.07 - Kupp- A bargain
2.08 - Pacheco - About right I think
2.09 - Adams - I would have maybe been OK 2nd round with AOC at QB, but I can't see this offense being good enough to support Adams enough to reach this level. plus given his age I think is already a bit rich.
2.10 - London - I don't get the hype. Advanced metrics make him look like a good WR, but not a star. It would take a huge jump from him to enter this level of WR's
2.11 - Achane - Similar to Kyren. I can see taking him here, but so scary. Workload questions, injury questions. Dude is tiny.
2.12 - Deebo - If Aiyuk is traded maybe, but otherwise this can only pay off if they go back to using him out of the backfield, which isn't going to happen.

The third round is a bit better, but the big issue is just how flat the tier is when you get past 8-9 guys. Their are 5th and 6th round guys I have in the same tier as most of the ADP 2nd

In ESPN, Kupp is ranked 41! I'm praying my leaguemates are asleep at the wheel here so I can gladly pick him up at the 2/3 turn (in the 3rd).

I want to belive in London but I can't. Deebo too early there. Adams I can't trust with that QB situation. MH aint gonna make it to me.

I actually look into early round 3 and find myself skipping these guys and going with Nico Collins who I think is a monster the masses really don't get...yet.