ADP, and the 2024 2nd Round (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

One of the constant drumbeats I'm hearing this pre-season is about how the 2nd round generally sucks. Everyone seems to hate the 2nd round players.

Current Draft Calc 12-team PPR ADP has the 2nd round like this:
2.01 - Garret Wilson
2.02 - MH2
2.03 - Puka
2.04 - Kyren
2.05 - Henry
2.06 - ETN
2.07 - Kupp
2.08 - Pacheco
2.09 - Adams
2.10 - London
2.11 - Achane
2.12 - Deebo

Personally I really like about 3/4 of this list at ADP, with only Kyren, Henry, Adams, & London as players I'm not as high on there. Honestly it's hard to do better than Pacheco at 2.08 if you start with an elite WR at 1.05, or with Wilson, Puka or MH2 early 2nd if you start with JT or Barkley at 1.11-1.12. If I'm picking 1-4, and Kupp falls to me I'm counting my blessings, but if not, I can see reaching a little for Nico - though Deebo still offers excellent value there.

I feel like this year's ADP offers a lot of good value in each of the first 4 rounds - after that it's kind of a crap shoot and difficult to predict anyway. So what is it? Is the 2nd round really that bad this year, or do people just like to complain about stuff? Or is it mostly the WR-WR folks who don't want to make an adjustment this year?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Link to round 1 that I must have missed
Thanks

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Link to round 1 that I must have missed
Thanks

Topic title: 2nd round ADP

I’m using Draft Calculator PPR current ADP. As clearly stated.

Sorry; I’d assumed you had the internet.

 

[VikingFrog]

I’m drafting 5 next week in a 12 teamer, and I like the second round. It gives me a lot of options to build a solid foundation and I like almost all the guys you posted available except for MHJ and Kupp. Just hard for me to put so much stock in a rookie even though his pedigree is great and target share should be there, and hard for me to put so much stock in Kupp with his injury history as of late and age.

I’m under the assumption I’ll likely get Bijan or Breece… as my guess is it will go CMC, Cedee, Tyreek, Breece/Bijan.

Pacheco in the 2nd would be ideal for me unless Puka somehow fell. If I really felt comfortable with Bijan and Breece as the anchor, swinging for the Achane big time upset might feel good here.

Kupp, Adams, Deebo, and London would all be hard for me to draft here. So maybe you are onto something with the WR/WR crew.

2.01 - Garret Wilson - WR1 upside
2.02 - MH2 - rookie scares me here
2.03 - Puka - gladly take him, I’ve seen what he can do and back in my day WRs used to get better their sophomore year
2.04 - Kyren - not sure why I’m nervous on Kyren, but wouldn’t be afraid of drafting him
2.05 - Henry - love the situation and the TD upside
2.06 - ETN - main guy, not much competition
2.07 - Kupp - injury concerns
2.08 - Pacheco - 3 down back on a high flying offense, yes please… though I’ve seen this story before
2.09 - Adams - with the Minshew announcement I like him more, but owned him last year and was whelmed
2.10 - London - should be fine, just doesn’t get my juices flowing
2.11 - Achane - boom or bust, but willing to gamble on boom, especially if you can grab Mostert later
2.12 - Deebo - I think deebo will have a great year

 

[VikingFrog]

Link to round 1 that I must have missed
Thanks

Topic title: 2nd round ADP

I’m using Draft Calculator PPR current ADP. As clearly stated.

Sorry; I’d assumed you had the internet.

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

youtu.be

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Link to round 1 that I must have missed
Thanks

Topic title: 2nd round ADP

I’m using Draft Calculator PPR current ADP. As clearly stated.

Sorry; I’d assumed you had the internet.

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

youtu.be

It was a simpler time.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

2.02 - MH2 - rookie scares me here

I’m oddly bullish on MH2 as a 2nd round pick.

I just feel like if he’s the real deal, and he seems to be, then drafting him “at his ceiling” is the same as drafting Lamb, Hill, AJB, etc at their ceiling. Sure, he has to hit to be worth the pick, but that’s what we expect of all 1st & 2nd round picks, no?

The only thing he doesn’t have going for him is a track record. But we know Murray can support a true alpha WR, we saw years of it. And we know it should be a fun, vertical offense. Their defense is nothing special, so they should be in some shootouts.

Other than having to face the NFC West defenses, I’m not seeing a ton of red flags.

 

[efactor]

2.02 - MH2 - rookie scares me here

I’m oddly bullish on MH2 as a 2nd round pick.

I just feel like if he’s the real deal, and he seems to be, then drafting him “at his ceiling” is the same as drafting Lamb, Hill, AJB, etc at their ceiling. Sure, he has to hit to be worth the pick, but that’s what we expect of all 1st & 2nd round picks, no?

The only thing he doesn’t have going for him is a track record. But we know Murray can support a true alpha WR, we saw years of it. And we know it should be a fun, vertical offense. Their defense is nothing special, so they should be in some shootouts.

Other than having to face the NFC West defenses, I’m not seeing a ton of red flags.

Yeah, not sure why anyone would be gun shy other than he's a rookie. He comes into a almost perfect situation. Good QB, not a lot of competition for targets and the Cards D will suck, so they will throwing a ton in the 2nd half. Virtually everyone says he is as pro ready coming out of college as anyone, ever.

If I end up in the 1/2 turn area in my redraft league, I'm grabbing him with confidence if he is still on the board. Already made a pretty big trade up in dynasty to grab him #1 overall. I'm in with zero worries.

 

[massraider]

Looks like a lot of guys that maybe don't have #1 at their position upside, but that's me just catching vibe from people.

I probably take London over guys in front of him. I'm not much of a history buff, but I seem to recall his QB supporting WR1 overall not too long ago.

Garret Wilson I love, just have the Jets cloud hanging over him.

ETN doesn't catch enough balls for upside, maybe he will, I like him fine, but I don't think he's a great back. Good situation, if they use him.

Not taking Adams at that spot, because checkdowns to other players will hurt volume.

I'll take Harrison and Nabers no problem. Nabers is going to be a target hog, period.

Someone will take Achane before I will. Volume concerns.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

2.02 - MH2 - rookie scares me here

I’m oddly bullish on MH2 as a 2nd round pick.

I just feel like if he’s the real deal, and he seems to be, then drafting him “at his ceiling” is the same as drafting Lamb, Hill, AJB, etc at their ceiling. Sure, he has to hit to be worth the pick, but that’s what we expect of all 1st & 2nd round picks, no?

The only thing he doesn’t have going for him is a track record. But we know Murray can support a true alpha WR, we saw years of it. And we know it should be a fun, vertical offense. Their defense is nothing special, so they should be in some shootouts.

Other than having to face the NFC West defenses, I’m not seeing a ton of red flags.

Yeah, not sure why anyone would be gun shy other than he's a rookie. He comes into a almost perfect situation. Good QB, not a lot of competition for targets and the Cards D will suck, so they will throwing a ton in the 2nd half. Virtually everyone says he is as pro ready coming out of college as anyone, ever.

If I end up in the 1/2 turn area in my redraft league, I'm grabbing him with confidence if he is still on the board. Already made a pretty big trade up in dynasty to grab him #1 overall. I'm in with zero worries.

He's a rookie. The absolute ceiling (so far) for a rookie in recent history has been ~1400 yards (Puka and Chase). If you draft him at the top of the 1st, you're drafting his ceiling (I hate that term). I'd much rather have Wilson/Puka or even Deebo in the 2nd and let someone else in the league roll the dice on the rookie coming up to speed 100% right out of the gate.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He's a rookie. The absolute ceiling (so far) for a rookie in recent history has been ~1400 yards (Puka and Chase). If you draft him at the top of the 1st, you're drafting his ceiling (I hate that term). I'd much rather have Wilson/Puka or even Deebo in the 2nd and let someone else in the league roll the dice on the rookie coming up to speed 100% right out of the gate.

But aren’t you also drafting Wilson, Puka, & Deebo “at their ceiling” with a 1.02-1.04 pick?

 

[Ilov80s]

It's not so much that the 2nd round sucks. It's just so flat that it gives a massive advantage to teams with early picks. Some years having a pick late in the 1st is exciting because the double tap you can get at the turn is sexy. That just isn't the case this year.

 

[Ilov80s]

ETN doesn't catch enough balls for upside, maybe he will, I like him fine, but I don't think he's a great back. Good situation, if they use him.

58 catches last year, 6th most of any RB.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's not so much that the 2nd round sucks. It's just so flat that it gives a massive advantage to teams with early picks. Some years having a pick late in the 1st is exciting because the double tap you can get at the turn is sexy. That just isn't the case this year.

Solid point.

But then, sexy is in the eye of the beholder.

Just to play devil’s advocate, I count
• 2 old WRs
• 2 WRs with questionable QB play/injury history
• a RB who’s this far underachieved
• a RB who’s team drafted a good RB
• a rookie WR
• a WR on the Jets
• a WR who’s failed to live up to the hype

That’s 3/4 of the round right there. I mean, you can hit the strip club and be hit for the 67 y/o with an eyepatch & pegleg - hey, I don’t judge. But some might find those picks less than sexy.

 

[efactor]

2.02 - MH2 - rookie scares me here

I’m oddly bullish on MH2 as a 2nd round pick.

I just feel like if he’s the real deal, and he seems to be, then drafting him “at his ceiling” is the same as drafting Lamb, Hill, AJB, etc at their ceiling. Sure, he has to hit to be worth the pick, but that’s what we expect of all 1st & 2nd round picks, no?

The only thing he doesn’t have going for him is a track record. But we know Murray can support a true alpha WR, we saw years of it. And we know it should be a fun, vertical offense. Their defense is nothing special, so they should be in some shootouts.

Other than having to face the NFC West defenses, I’m not seeing a ton of red flags.

Yeah, not sure why anyone would be gun shy other than he's a rookie. He comes into a almost perfect situation. Good QB, not a lot of competition for targets and the Cards D will suck, so they will throwing a ton in the 2nd half. Virtually everyone says he is as pro ready coming out of college as anyone, ever.

If I end up in the 1/2 turn area in my redraft league, I'm grabbing him with confidence if he is still on the board. Already made a pretty big trade up in dynasty to grab him #1 overall. I'm in with zero worries.

He's a rookie. The absolute ceiling (so far) for a rookie in recent history has been ~1400 yards (Puka and Chase). If you draft him at the top of the 1st, you're drafting his ceiling (I hate that term). I'd much rather have Wilson/Puka or even Deebo in the 2nd and let someone else in the league roll the dice on the rookie coming up to speed 100% right out of the gate.

And Chase and Puka seasons have been really recent, within the last 3 years. Harrison is probably a better prospect than even Chase was (mentally better prepared too) and obviously a much better prospect than Puka was. I just see a great, pro ready prospect going into a great situation to put up big FF numbers. I would take him over any of those guys, especially with Kupp being healthy going into the season, which will cut down on Puka's targets more than likely.

Will be fun watching it play out anyway

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

He's a rookie. The absolute ceiling (so far) for a rookie in recent history has been ~1400 yards (Puka and Chase). If you draft him at the top of the 1st, you're drafting his ceiling (I hate that term). I'd much rather have Wilson/Puka or even Deebo in the 2nd and let someone else in the league roll the dice on the rookie coming up to speed 100% right out of the gate.

But aren’t you also drafting Wilson, Puka, & Deebo “at their ceiling” with a 1.02-1.04 pick?

No, you're drafting a vet who's produced at the WR1 level who has more ceiling. Wilson is uber talented and had bupkis for QB. Maybe he moves into elite territory with ARod there. It certainly can't be worse than the last few years. Puka is going into his 2nd year, ostensibly better prepared physically. He's another guy who I don't think he's hit his ceiling. You'd be drafting both as low end WR1s with elite upside. With MHJ, and I REALLY love the kid, he'd need to break records to be a mid level WR1. That's what I mean by drafting at his ceiling.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

he'd need to break records to be a mid level WR1. That's what I mean by drafting at his ceiling.

Mid-level? Not sure about that. As we all know, touchdowns are pretty fickle. He could end up with 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns and be a top 10 wide receiver.

Meanwhile, Puka Nacua has a healthy Cooper Kupp on the other side of the field. Is there really that much room for him to improve? Color me slightly skeptical.

Looking at guys like Davante Adams, 31 years old with very questionable quarterback play and quality of offense TBD. I’m easily taking MH2 over him.

 

[Chaka]

One of the constant drumbeats I'm hearing this pre-season is about how the 2nd round generally sucks. Everyone seems to hate the 2nd round players.

Current Draft Calc 12-team PPR ADP has the 2nd round like this:
2.01 - Garret Wilson
2.02 - MH2
2.03 - Puka
2.04 - Kyren
2.05 - Henry
2.06 - ETN
2.07 - Kupp
2.08 - Pacheco
2.09 - Adams
2.10 - London
2.11 - Achane
2.12 - Deebo

Personally I really like about 3/4 of this list at ADP, with only Kyren, Henry, Adams, & London as players I'm not as high on there. Honestly it's hard to do better than Pacheco at 2.08 if you start with an elite WR at 1.05, or with Wilson, Puka or MH2 early 2nd if you start with JT or Barkley at 1.11-1.12. If I'm picking 1-4, and Kupp falls to me I'm counting my blessings, but if not, I can see reaching a little for Nico - though Deebo still offers excellent value there.

I feel like this year's ADP offers a lot of good value in each of the first 4 rounds - after that it's kind of a crap shoot and difficult to predict anyway. So what is it? Is the 2nd round really that bad this year, or do people just like to complain about stuff? Or is it mostly the WR-WR folks who don't want to make an adjustment this year?

The players are fine, it's the format that sucks. Goodness, I will never understand how people find pleasure in one QB leagues.

So boring.

 

[VikingFrog]

He's a rookie. The absolute ceiling (so far) for a rookie in recent history has been ~1400 yards (Puka and Chase). If you draft him at the top of the 1st, you're drafting his ceiling (I hate that term). I'd much rather have Wilson/Puka or even Deebo in the 2nd and let someone else in the league roll the dice on the rookie coming up to speed 100% right out of the gate.

But aren’t you also drafting Wilson, Puka, & Deebo “at their ceiling” with a 1.02-1.04 pick?

No, you're drafting a vet who's produced at the WR1 level who has more ceiling. Wilson is uber talented and had bupkis for QB. Maybe he moves into elite territory with ARod there. It certainly can't be worse than the last few years. Puka is going into his 2nd year, ostensibly better prepared physically. He's another guy who I don't think he's hit his ceiling. You'd be drafting both as low end WR1s with elite upside. With MHJ, and I REALLY love the kid, he'd need to break records to be a mid level WR1. That's what I mean by drafting at his ceiling.

People also keep using him being the only viable target as a plus. Where as I see it as a small minus possibly. Yes he has McBride next to him… but many (not all) of these other guys have strong WR2 next to them, which I view as a plus.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The players are fine, it's the format that sucks. Goodness, I will never understand how people find pleasure in one QB leagues.

So boring.

At first, I was with you, because I thought you were going to say auction drafts are superior to snake

But then you went all hoity-toity super flex on me and you lost me.

All three of my dynasty leagues are super flex. I do enjoy them. But there is a simple beauty in one quarterback leagues.

ETA: especially one quarterback, plus IDP, as my home league is.

 

[Ilov80s]

One of the constant drumbeats I'm hearing this pre-season is about how the 2nd round generally sucks. Everyone seems to hate the 2nd round players.

Current Draft Calc 12-team PPR ADP has the 2nd round like this:
2.01 - Garret Wilson
2.02 - MH2
2.03 - Puka
2.04 - Kyren
2.05 - Henry
2.06 - ETN
2.07 - Kupp
2.08 - Pacheco
2.09 - Adams
2.10 - London
2.11 - Achane
2.12 - Deebo

Personally I really like about 3/4 of this list at ADP, with only Kyren, Henry, Adams, & London as players I'm not as high on there. Honestly it's hard to do better than Pacheco at 2.08 if you start with an elite WR at 1.05, or with Wilson, Puka or MH2 early 2nd if you start with JT or Barkley at 1.11-1.12. If I'm picking 1-4, and Kupp falls to me I'm counting my blessings, but if not, I can see reaching a little for Nico - though Deebo still offers excellent value there.

I feel like this year's ADP offers a lot of good value in each of the first 4 rounds - after that it's kind of a crap shoot and difficult to predict anyway. So what is it? Is the 2nd round really that bad this year, or do people just like to complain about stuff? Or is it mostly the WR-WR folks who don't want to make an adjustment this year?

The players are fine, it's the format that sucks. Goodness, I will never understand how people find pleasure in one QB leagues.

So boring.

This is definitely a good year for 2 QB leagues. It's pretty deep this year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He's a rookie. The absolute ceiling (so far) for a rookie in recent history has been ~1400 yards (Puka and Chase). If you draft him at the top of the 1st, you're drafting his ceiling (I hate that term). I'd much rather have Wilson/Puka or even Deebo in the 2nd and let someone else in the league roll the dice on the rookie coming up to speed 100% right out of the gate.

But aren’t you also drafting Wilson, Puka, & Deebo “at their ceiling” with a 1.02-1.04 pick?

No, you're drafting a vet who's produced at the WR1 level who has more ceiling. Wilson is uber talented and had bupkis for QB. Maybe he moves into elite territory with ARod there. It certainly can't be worse than the last few years. Puka is going into his 2nd year, ostensibly better prepared physically. He's another guy who I don't think he's hit his ceiling. You'd be drafting both as low end WR1s with elite upside. With MHJ, and I REALLY love the kid, he'd need to break records to be a mid level WR1. That's what I mean by drafting at his ceiling.

People also keep using him being the only viable target as a plus. Where as I see it as a small minus possibly. Yes he has McBride next to him… but many (not all) of these other guys have strong WR2 next to them, which I view as a plus.

I think that’s a bit exaggerated. Dortch is having a strong preseason, they have a great TE, Wilson is decent - I do expect MH two to draw top coverage. I think it’s an overstatement to say he is the only weapon they have.

 

[Chaka]

The players are fine, it's the format that sucks. Goodness, I will never understand how people find pleasure in one QB leagues.

So boring.

At first, I was with you, because I thought you were going to say auction drafts are superior to snake

But then you went all hoity-toity super flex on me and you lost me.

All three of my dynasty leagues are super flex. I do enjoy them. But there is a simple beauty in one quarterback leagues.

In the same way there is a simple beauty in boiling a potato.

It still sucks until you zhuzh it up.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

W

2.02 - MH2 - rookie scares me here

I’m oddly bullish on MH2 as a 2nd round pick.

I just feel like if he’s the real deal, and he seems to be, then drafting him “at his ceiling” is the same as drafting Lamb, Hill, AJB, etc at their ceiling. Sure, he has to hit to be worth the pick, but that’s what we expect of all 1st & 2nd round picks, no?

The only thing he doesn’t have going for him is a track record. But we know Murray can support a true alpha WR, we saw years of it. And we know it should be a fun, vertical offense. Their defense is nothing special, so they should be in some shootouts.

Other than having to face the NFC West defenses, I’m not seeing a ton of red flags.

Yeah, not sure why anyone would be gun shy other than he's a rookie. He comes into a almost perfect situation. Good QB, not a lot of competition for targets and the Cards D will suck, so they will throwing a ton in the 2nd half. Virtually everyone says he is as pro ready coming out of college as anyone, ever.

If I end up in the 1/2 turn area in my redraft league, I'm grabbing him with confidence if he is still on the board. Already made a pretty big trade up in dynasty to grab him #1 overall. I'm in with zero worries.

He's a rookie. The absolute ceiling (so far) for a rookie in recent history has been ~1400 yards (Puka and Chase). If you draft him at the top of the 1st, you're drafting his ceiling (I hate that term). I'd much rather have Wilson/Puka or even Deebo in the 2nd and let someone else in the league roll the dice on the rookie coming up to speed 100% right out of the gate.

And Chase and Puka seasons have been really recent, within the last 3 years. Harrison is probably a better prospect than even Chase was (mentally better prepared too) and obviously a much better prospect than Puka was. I just see a great, pro ready prospect going into a great situation to put up big FF numbers. I would take him over any of those guys, especially with Kupp being healthy going into the season, which will cut down on Puka's targets more than likely.

Will be fun watching it play out anyway

With the knee injury & Kupp being 100%, I have MH2 a tick above Puka this year.

And some here may recall I was Puka’s biggest cheerleader here last year after the NFL draft, so it’s not like I’m down on Puka.

I just see a great opportunity and a talented WR. That usually means FF gold. Even if he hits 85% of his ceiling that’s still probably a top 10 WR. I don’t see the problem in the early 2nd.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In the same way there is a simple beauty in boiling a potato.

It still sucks until you zhuzh it up.

I like my potatoes like I like my women. Baked.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

he'd need to break records to be a mid level WR1. That's what I mean by drafting at his ceiling.

Mid-level? Not sure about that. As we all know, touchdowns are pretty fickle. He could end up with 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns and be a top 10 wide receiver.

Meanwhile, Puka Nacua has a healthy Cooper Kupp on the other side of the field. Is there really that much room for him to improve? Color me slightly skeptical.

Looking at guys like Davante Adams, 31 years old with very questionable quarterback play and quality of offense TBD. I’m easily taking MH2 over him.

You're making my point for me. WR10 is low level WR1 in a 12 team league. I expect him to be in the WR10-15 range, because exactly as you say, TDs are fickle...but I'm not drafting him at WR6-7.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You're making my point for me. WR10 is low level WR1 in a 12 team league. I expect him to be in the WR10-15 range, because exactly as you say, TDs are fickle...but I'm not drafting him at WR6-7.

But we’re talking about the 2nd round.

So theoretically, using draft calc ADP, you’re drafting him as WR9, and with your 2nd pick (after maybe taking a WR in the 1st).

Seems about right.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Self correction:

G Wilson has never posted a WR1 (top 12) season. He's posted WR15 in my PPR league. Point still stands, kinda...

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

You're making my point for me. WR10 is low level WR1 in a 12 team league. I expect him to be in the WR10-15 range, because exactly as you say, TDs are fickle...but I'm not drafting him at WR6-7.

But we’re talking about the 2nd round.

So theoretically, using draft calc ADP, you’re drafting him as WR9, and with your 2nd pick (after maybe taking a WR in the 1st).

Seems about right.

Yep. And I'd rather have the vet who's produced at those levels before a rookie, no matter how heralded he is. It's risk aversion for me.

 

[Scoresman]

Great thread. I noticed the same thing.

For me it's Henry all day, PPR be damned. I dont like anyone else in the second round. Even in mocks where I start RB, I still have been consistently going after Henry and like those teams so much better than others.

I would consider Garrett Wilson if he falls.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yep. And I'd rather have the vet who's produced at those levels before a rookie, no matter how heralded he is. It's risk aversion for me.

That’s fair, but it’s slightly different than saying you’d be drafting at his ceiling.

We don’t really know his ceiling.

 

[kyoun1e]

One of the constant drumbeats I'm hearing this pre-season is about how the 2nd round generally sucks. Everyone seems to hate the 2nd round players.

Current Draft Calc 12-team PPR ADP has the 2nd round like this:
2.01 - Garret Wilson
2.02 - MH2
2.03 - Puka
2.04 - Kyren
2.05 - Henry
2.06 - ETN
2.07 - Kupp
2.08 - Pacheco
2.09 - Adams
2.10 - London
2.11 - Achane
2.12 - Deebo

Personally I really like about 3/4 of this list at ADP, with only Kyren, Henry, Adams, & London as players I'm not as high on there. Honestly it's hard to do better than Pacheco at 2.08 if you start with an elite WR at 1.05, or with Wilson, Puka or MH2 early 2nd if you start with JT or Barkley at 1.11-1.12. If I'm picking 1-4, and Kupp falls to me I'm counting my blessings, but if not, I can see reaching a little for Nico - though Deebo still offers excellent value there.

I feel like this year's ADP offers a lot of good value in each of the first 4 rounds - after that it's kind of a crap shoot and difficult to predict anyway. So what is it? Is the 2nd round really that bad this year, or do people just like to complain about stuff? Or is it mostly the WR-WR folks who don't want to make an adjustment this year?

I think if you draft in the 2nd half of round 1, then round 2 is perfectly fine. I'd love to land a Puka, Gibbs, Kyren, Pacheco or D. Henry. If you're drafting early in the first, I think you start to get sucky. I just can't pull the trigger on London, Adams, Achane, ETN here.

Even with M. Harrison, Nabers is 2-3 rounds cheaper...would rather wait.

I keep finding myself reaching for guys in round 2 with a lower ADP like N. Collins, J. Waddle and even J. Cook (who everyone must hate...don't get it).

 

[Scoresman]

Has Kupp really risen to the second round? He was in the fourth recently.

I like the idea of drafting Kupp this year but not at that price.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

One of the constant drumbeats I'm hearing this pre-season is about how the 2nd round generally sucks. Everyone seems to hate the 2nd round players.

Current Draft Calc 12-team PPR ADP has the 2nd round like this:
2.01 - Garret Wilson
2.02 - MH2
2.03 - Puka
2.04 - Kyren
2.05 - Henry
2.06 - ETN
2.07 - Kupp
2.08 - Pacheco
2.09 - Adams
2.10 - London
2.11 - Achane
2.12 - Deebo

Personally I really like about 3/4 of this list at ADP, with only Kyren, Henry, Adams, & London as players I'm not as high on there. Honestly it's hard to do better than Pacheco at 2.08 if you start with an elite WR at 1.05, or with Wilson, Puka or MH2 early 2nd if you start with JT or Barkley at 1.11-1.12. If I'm picking 1-4, and Kupp falls to me I'm counting my blessings, but if not, I can see reaching a little for Nico - though Deebo still offers excellent value there.

I feel like this year's ADP offers a lot of good value in each of the first 4 rounds - after that it's kind of a crap shoot and difficult to predict anyway. So what is it? Is the 2nd round really that bad this year, or do people just like to complain about stuff? Or is it mostly the WR-WR folks who don't want to make an adjustment this year?

I think if you draft in the 2nd half of round 1, then round 2 is perfectly fine. I'd love to land a Puka, Gibbs, Kyren, Pacheco or D. Henry. If you're drafting early in the first, I think you start to get sucky. I just can't pull the trigger on London, Adams, Achane, ETN here.

Even with M. Harrison, Nabers is 2-3 rounds cheaper...would rather wait.

I keep finding myself reaching for guys in round 2 with a lower ADP like N. Collins, J. Waddle and even J. Cook (who everyone must hate...don't get it).

That’s the beauty of this game we all love, and sort of the point of this topic and why it’s such an interesting discussion.

• beauty is in the eye of the beholder
• value seems to depend a lot on level of personal trust, and style of drafting. (E.g. trusting vets over rookies, or going WR-WR or RB-RB or WR-RB or RB-WR
• first year in a long time with no TE in the 1st two rounds - I find that to be an interesting, as-yet-to-be-discussed sub-topic

We all seem to have different 2nd round targets, while some of them are polarizing. Through the first 10 picks folks seem to be pretty on board, but then some of those variables are pretty influential in who people like and why between 11-24.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Has Kupp really risen to the second round? He was in the fourth recently.

I like the idea of drafting Kupp this year but not at that price.

He has indeed.

In a 17 team guillotine last night I took him 1.16, then reached a little for Nico. $50 league - I was having fun. But on NFFC his ADP is currently 34 though, so still 3rd round territory.

Trade calc ADP brings in data from all sites though.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Yep. And I'd rather have the vet who's produced at those levels before a rookie, no matter how heralded he is. It's risk aversion for me.

That’s fair, but it’s slightly different than saying you’d be drafting at his ceiling.

We don’t really know his ceiling.

We don't know his ceiling, but history tells us that the best WR season by a rookie is is 2023 Puka (105/1486/6). I don't think the odds are in favor of MHJ breaking that record. And that's the whole point of my argument here. MHJ being drafted like he'll get rookie Puka numbers (more than likely his ceiling) is drafting him above where he will likely shake out. Again, I like the dude. A lot. If he's available at the 2nd/3rd turn, I'm taking him no questions asked. But higher in the 2nd there are guys who have already produced at that level to be had.

 

[Scoresman]

Has Kupp really risen to the second round? He was in the fourth recently.

I like the idea of drafting Kupp this year but not at that price.

He has indeed.

In a 17 team best ball last night I took him 1.16, then reached a little for Nico. $50 league - I was having fun. But on NFFC his ADP is currently 34 though, so still 3rd round territory.

Trade calc ADP brings in data from all sites though.

I don't think bestball and start/sit ADPs are the same, especially at WR. I just did a quick sleeper mock and still got him at 4.03.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Has Kupp really risen to the second round? He was in the fourth recently.

I like the idea of drafting Kupp this year but not at that price.

He has indeed.

In a 17 team best ball last night I took him 1.16, then reached a little for Nico. $50 league - I was having fun. But on NFFC his ADP is currently 34 though, so still 3rd round territory.

Trade calc ADP brings in data from all sites though.

I don't think bestball and start/sit ADPs are the same, especially at WR. I just did a quick sleeper mock and still got him at 4.03.

Oops, not best Ball… Guillotine league.

 

[kyoun1e]

Has Kupp really risen to the second round? He was in the fourth recently.

I like the idea of drafting Kupp this year but not at that price.

He has indeed.

In a 17 team best ball last night I took him 1.16, then reached a little for Nico. $50 league - I was having fun. But on NFFC his ADP is currently 34 though, so still 3rd round territory.

Trade calc ADP brings in data from all sites though.

The sharks are drafting him in round 2. Meanwhile, ESPN currently ranks him at #41. Hope it stays that way.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Has Kupp really risen to the second round? He was in the fourth recently.

I like the idea of drafting Kupp this year but not at that price.

He has indeed.

In a 17 team best ball last night I took him 1.16, then reached a little for Nico. $50 league - I was having fun. But on NFFC his ADP is currently 34 though, so still 3rd round territory.

Trade calc ADP brings in data from all sites though.

The sharks are drafting him in round 2. Meanwhile, ESPN currently ranks him at #41. Hope it stays that way.

I have pick12 in a high stakes draft tomorrow evening for my birthday. With 3RR, I’m absolutely hoping to get him with that first pic in the third round.

 

[efactor]

Has Kupp really risen to the second round? He was in the fourth recently.

I like the idea of drafting Kupp this year but not at that price.

He has indeed.

In a 17 team best ball last night I took him 1.16, then reached a little for Nico. $50 league - I was having fun. But on NFFC his ADP is currently 34 though, so still 3rd round territory.

Trade calc ADP brings in data from all sites though.

The sharks are drafting him in round 2. Meanwhile, ESPN currently ranks him at #41. Hope it stays that way.

I have pick12 in a high stakes draft tomorrow evening for my birthday. With 3RR, I’m absolutely hoping to get him with that first pic in the third round.

Happy Birthday and draft well

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In the same way there is a simple beauty in boiling a potato.

It still sucks until you zhuzh it up.

I like my potatoes like I like my women. Baked.

Wait, smashed? Fried?

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

It's funny, because I was about to start a thread about how the second round sucks this year when I saw that this one existed.

I got a late start on my draft prep but have been doing a bunch of mocks/sims as I prepare for my first draft next week. Every single one, I've found myself disappointed with the options available in the second.

I try not to be too rigid positionally, in my drafts, but I generally start my drafts going RB-WR, and less frequently, WR-RB. But in my mocks this year, I've found that whoever I take in the first round, I don't like what I see in the second. If I take a RB, I'm looking at WRs like London, Waddle, Olave and Pittman, none of whom feel like true WR1s to me. If I take a WR early, the second-round RBs are the likes of Pacheco, Henry and White.

I've started experimenting with going RB-RB -- I would love to have someone like Pacheco as my RB2 -- and then taking some chances with high upside WRs in the third like Aiyuk or Nico, both of whom make me nervous but are at least less risky in the third (I was initially seeing DJ Moore still around that late, but I feel like his ADP has been rising as of late)

 

[VikingFrog]

It's funny, because I was about to start a thread about how the second round sucks this year when I saw that this one existed.

I got a late start on my draft prep but have been doing a bunch of mocks/sims as I prepare for my first draft next week. Every single one, I've found myself disappointed with the options available in the second.

I try not to be too rigid positionally, in my drafts, but I generally start my drafts going RB-WR, and less frequently, WR-RB. But in my mocks this year, I've found that whoever I take in the first round, I don't like what I see in the second. If I take a RB, I'm looking at WRs like London, Waddle, Olave and Pittman, none of whom feel like true WR1s to me. If I take a WR early, the second-round RBs are the likes of Pacheco, Henry and White.

I've started experimenting with going RB-RB -- I would love to have someone like Pacheco as my RB2 -- and then taking some chances with high upside WRs in the third like Aiyuk or Nico, both of whom make me nervous but are at least less risky in the third (I was initially seeing DJ Moore still around that late, but I feel like his ADP has been rising as of late)

I would hit the smash button on Henry in the second.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

One of the constant drumbeats I'm hearing this pre-season is about how the 2nd round generally sucks. Everyone seems to hate the 2nd round players.

Current Draft Calc 12-team PPR ADP has the 2nd round like this:
2.01 - Garret Wilson
2.02 - MH2
2.03 - Puka
2.04 - Kyren
2.05 - Henry
2.06 - ETN
2.07 - Kupp
2.08 - Pacheco
2.09 - Adams
2.10 - London
2.11 - Achane
2.12 - Deebo

Personally I really like about 3/4 of this list at ADP, with only Kyren, Henry, Adams, & London as players I'm not as high on there. Honestly it's hard to do better than Pacheco at 2.08 if you start with an elite WR at 1.05, or with Wilson, Puka or MH2 early 2nd if you start with JT or Barkley at 1.11-1.12. If I'm picking 1-4, and Kupp falls to me I'm counting my blessings, but if not, I can see reaching a little for Nico - though Deebo still offers excellent value there.

I feel like this year's ADP offers a lot of good value in each of the first 4 rounds - after that it's kind of a crap shoot and difficult to predict anyway. So what is it? Is the 2nd round really that bad this year, or do people just like to complain about stuff? Or is it mostly the WR-WR folks who don't want to make an adjustment this year?

2.01 - Garret Wilson - This is around the right spot for him
2.02 - MH2 - I like him a lot and I think this is way too high. I think it is probably above his ceiling. If you look at Michael Thomas's rookie year, which was a top 10 rookie WR performance of all time. It would probably end up being WR 9 or 10 this year. He would have to have a season like Chase or Jefferson to pay this off. Their is a lot of taregt competition in Arizona.
2.03 - Puka - I think he is 2nd to Kupp. That makes this about a round too high
2.04 - Kyren - A player I struggle with. His ceiling justifies this, but his floor is low enough it is terrifying to draft him this high.
2.05 - Henry - at least 2 rounds too high. Baltimore spreads the wealth among RB's.
2.06 - ETN - Again he is not going to get the workload to make this pay off.
2.07 - Kupp- A bargain
2.08 - Pacheco - About right I think
2.09 - Adams - I would have maybe been OK 2nd round with AOC at QB, but I can't see this offense being good enough to support Adams enough to reach this level. plus given his age I think is already a bit rich.
2.10 - London - I don't get the hype. Advanced metrics make him look like a good WR, but not a star. It would take a huge jump from him to enter this level of WR's
2.11 - Achane - Similar to Kyren. I can see taking him here, but so scary. Workload questions, injury questions. Dude is tiny.
2.12 - Deebo - If Aiyuk is traded maybe, but otherwise this can only pay off if they go back to using him out of the backfield, which isn't going to happen.

The third round is a bit better, but the big issue is just how flat the tier is when you get past 8-9 guys. Their are 5th and 6th round guys I have in the same tier as most of the ADP 2nd

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In the same way there is a simple beauty in boiling a potato.

It still sucks until you zhuzh it up.

I like my potatoes like I like my women. Baked.

Wait, smashed? Fried?

Oh, I know !

Au gratin!

No, wait.

 

[Judge Smails]

One of the constant drumbeats I'm hearing this pre-season is about how the 2nd round generally sucks. Everyone seems to hate the 2nd round players.

Current Draft Calc 12-team PPR ADP has the 2nd round like this:
2.01 - Garret Wilson
2.02 - MH2
2.03 - Puka
2.04 - Kyren
2.05 - Henry
2.06 - ETN
2.07 - Kupp
2.08 - Pacheco
2.09 - Adams
2.10 - London
2.11 - Achane
2.12 - Deebo

Personally I really like about 3/4 of this list at ADP, with only Kyren, Henry, Adams, & London as players I'm not as high on there. Honestly it's hard to do better than Pacheco at 2.08 if you start with an elite WR at 1.05, or with Wilson, Puka or MH2 early 2nd if you start with JT or Barkley at 1.11-1.12. If I'm picking 1-4, and Kupp falls to me I'm counting my blessings, but if not, I can see reaching a little for Nico - though Deebo still offers excellent value there.

I feel like this year's ADP offers a lot of good value in each of the first 4 rounds - after that it's kind of a crap shoot and difficult to predict anyway. So what is it? Is the 2nd round really that bad this year, or do people just like to complain about stuff? Or is it mostly the WR-WR folks who don't want to make an adjustment this year?

I think if you draft in the 2nd half of round 1, then round 2 is perfectly fine. I'd love to land a Puka, Gibbs, Kyren, Pacheco or D. Henry. If you're drafting early in the first, I think you start to get sucky. I just can't pull the trigger on London, Adams, Achane, ETN here.

Even with M. Harrison, Nabers is 2-3 rounds cheaper...would rather wait.

I keep finding myself reaching for guys in round 2 with a lower ADP like N. Collins, J. Waddle and even J. Cook (who everyone must hate...don't get it).

I agree with you. I don’t think round 2 is flat at all

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

It's funny, because I was about to start a thread about how the second round sucks this year when I saw that this one existed.

I got a late start on my draft prep but have been doing a bunch of mocks/sims as I prepare for my first draft next week. Every single one, I've found myself disappointed with the options available in the second.

I try not to be too rigid positionally, in my drafts, but I generally start my drafts going RB-WR, and less frequently, WR-RB. But in my mocks this year, I've found that whoever I take in the first round, I don't like what I see in the second. If I take a RB, I'm looking at WRs like London, Waddle, Olave and Pittman, none of whom feel like true WR1s to me. If I take a WR early, the second-round RBs are the likes of Pacheco, Henry and White.

I've started experimenting with going RB-RB -- I would love to have someone like Pacheco as my RB2 -- and then taking some chances with high upside WRs in the third like Aiyuk or Nico, both of whom make me nervous but are at least less risky in the third (I was initially seeing DJ Moore still around that late, but I feel like his ADP has been rising as of late)

I would hit the smash button on Henry in the second.

Hmm, I'm a little worried about him hitting the age cliff. I keep thinking about other once-dominant RBs who switched teams late in their careers (Tomlinson, Forte) and were still good, but nowhere near their heights.

Still, your general point is a good one. Maybe I need to stop worrying and learn to love some of these second rounders

 

[habsfan]

Puka and Kupp in the 2nd and Stafford at QB17 kinda breaks my brain a little bit.

 

[VikingFrog]

Puka and Kupp in the 2nd and Stafford at QB17 kinda breaks my brain a little bit.

Rushing qb stats have really skewed traditional statue pocket passer ratings. For a reason. But also sometimes a little too much. Tua ranked pretty low with the high rankings of hill and waddle also falls into this category a bit.