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adp relative to ur draft site massively swings (1 Viewer)

was just reading a blurb on http://www.fantasypros.com/2012/07/adp-average-draft-position/ (great site btw)

After basking in the afterglow of Randy Moss's sweet afro, and just before clicking te link to check out some adps i skimmed this little nugget.

This got me thinking. What players are so wildly divergent. Where have drafting sites skewed the value of a player by ranking him artificially low/high? This is especially important when using draft dominator/or some 3rd party list (ie not from the site u draft on) as u will really be able to clean up by knowing when a guy you like is 'burried' a few rounds before his adp indicates.

I think this kind of analysis would be perfect for a series of staff articles (ie one for each of the 5-6 basic FF drafting sites , but the drafts are so nearly approaching I think a community effort is needed here.

so where are the holes? posting this from the road so I'll add more later, but I think this could be pretty useful.

http://www.fantasypros.com/2012/07/adp-average-draft-position/

"I should expand on that last bullet. When you read about rankings compared to ADP make sure you know which site’s ADP is being referenced. If you’re going to draft on Yahoo, there’s a chance your draft may not play out the same way as a draft on ESPN.

There are two reasons for this. First, it’s likely that your opponents could be using, or at least referencing, the pre-draft rankings that come preloaded at the draft site. They might even be auto-drafting from them (if so, please invite me to your league). Second, even your more competitive opponents are probably influenced by the advice on the site that hosts your league. This advice is the most readily available, so it’s likely being digested. You may disagree with Matthew Berry, but you’re probably still reading his stuff if you play on ESPN.

Here are a couple examples of how ADP can vary from site to site.

Trent Richardson

Yahoo ADP 13.7 | ESPN ADP 33.1

Yahoo drafters are considerably higher on this rookie than ESPN drafters. And is it any surprise that Yahoo drafters are grabbing Trent early when the Yahoo Experts are touting him as the 9th best player to take? Conversely, ESPN’s experts have Richardson all the way down at 36th overall.

Frank Gore

Yahoo ADP 60.4 | ESPN ADP 36.1

We’ve got the opposite here, with ESPN drafters liking Gore more than Yahoo drafters. And, again, these numbers are likely influenced by the advice provided on the respective sites. ESPN’s staff has Gore at #38 while Yahoo’s staff has him at #52."

 
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the first thing you need to do is to get rid of any website that housese FREE leagues. aka, yahoo

 
the first thing you need to do is to get rid of any website that housese FREE leagues. aka, yahoo
maybe not. which do you think is closer to the mark on Trent Richardson the yahoos (13.7) or the geniuses at espn who are picking him 33.1.
i agree - they are a data point, and worth evaluating depending upon your competition - If you league mates use yahoo, then you should at least be aware of what it is saying and their ADP
 
This just shows you how many people wing their drafts

Kenny Britt 54th on Yahoo

ESPN 111th

PIT defense is 68th on yahoo

:confused:

 
I've pretty much been going by the fantasyfootballcalculator.com's mock draft ADP's..

it worked well last year, one draft was nearly a carbon copy of the site's ADP pecking order..

it's tough to handicap a draft when the unknown is always involved ( drunk people, homers, newbies/guppies).

LHUCKS is right about free sites, best to avoid their rankings..but CBS isn't any better, if you read the player write-ups , these guys are WAAAAAY off...their ADP is off as well..

 
LHUCKS is right about free sites, best to avoid their rankings..but CBS isn't any better, if you read the player write-ups , these guys are WAAAAAY off...their ADP is off as well..
Seems to me he's not so much "right," as missing the point.When a large site -- that hosts both free and pay leauges -- sets you up with default draft lists, picks in any draft have a tendency to somewhat mirror those lists, no matter how goofy they are.So if ESPN's default list lets you get McFadden in the 3rd, Ryan in the 7th, and Aaron Hernandez in the 9th, it's worth realizing. Doesn't mean you want wait till then assuming they'll fall...but if you have a chance to sneak in good values with your 4th and 5th rounders before nabbing Hernandez in the 6th...while still jumping a few rounds ahead of his ADP...it may be a strategy worth considering, even if it doesn't always come through.
 
LHUCKS is right about free sites, best to avoid their rankings..but CBS isn't any better
we'll agree to disagree...I reviewed ADP from four major sources and came to the conclusion that CBS was best
This doesn't make sense. ADP is nothing more than an average of where drafters are taking players. It is impossible for one to be better or worse than another as it is nothing more than a reporting of data of where other drafters are taking players in drafts. It is not a projection or estimate of performance (well, in a sense it is a group think estimation of performance).Also, pretty sure the two of you are talking about different things - Tanner mentioned "RANKINGS",which indeed can be good/bad so you need to be wary of your course, but you are referring to ADP.
 

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