very hard to beat one team three times in a year.
Came up often with NFC East teams in the playoffs, years ago with Pats Colts in playoffs and AFC East, AFC West teams when Denver was real good......there's alot of precedent. I think it's something to keep in mind before people gift the Steelers a 3rd W.
There have been 18 previous instances in the NFL playoffs of a team playing an opponent it has beaten twice already that year.The team that won the first two games has won the third game 11 out of 18 games (61%)
When at home and with a better record, the results improve to 9-4 (69%)
See for yourself (and add the Giants beating the Cowboys last year) at
Pro-Football-Reference
The "it's hard to beat a good team three times" line is basically a myth, based on those numbers.
Now it's also a possibility that it's a misapplied statement. After all, many times (like Giants-Eagles this season), teams meet for a third time having already split; therefore, it's a guarantee that neither team can win all three games.
I don't take it as that. 7 of 18 times the team and/or fans were confident they'd win a 3rd time based on the previous two wins. My point(and whoever thought to look it up and discuss years ago) is simply that the first two Ws doesn't assure a 3rd W.I don't follow that last qualifying line.
The last line in my previous post was an attempt to explain how the myth got started. I don't know the exact number, but I'd guess that the number of times teams meet for a third time in the postseason after splitting their first two games is higher than when one team has split. For argument's sake, let's say it is the same number, which is 18.If that were true, then the total number of times teams have met for the third time in the postseason would be 36, and only 11 of those times would one team have won the same game. See, 11 out of 36 is a low number. But I don't think this is what people refer to by the "hard to beat a team three times" schtick.
Bri, you say 7 of 18 is a good number for the team that lost the first two times. Maybe so, but when I hear the "hard to beat three times" argument, I'd expect the numbers to be better than under 40% for the team that lost the first two times. After all, what are the chances that the home team wins the championship game as it is, regardless of opponent? If my math and my memory are correct, for the AFC it's 8-8 for the last 16 years.
So for me to hear how hard it is to beat a team three times, but the numbers turn out to be better odds than just being the home team in the AFC championship for the past 16 years, then I think it is a failed argument, or as I called it before, a myth.
For what it's worth, I believe that most of the time the third meeting has occurred at earlier levels of the playoffs. The four meetings that came in conference championships, by my count, are:
1982-83 MIA 14 NYJ 0 (MIA defeats NYJ for third time, at home, with better record -- 8 teams made playoffs in nine-game strike season)
1983-84 Raiders 30 SEA 14 (SEA loses after defeating Raiders first two times, but game was on road, Raiders had better record)
1986-87 NYG 17 WASH 0 (NYG defeat WASH for third time, at home, with better record)
1999-2000 TENN 33 JAX 14 (TENN defeats JAX for third time, on road, with better record)
From this very limited data set, there will be little statistical significance, but what we can deduce is:
Home teams in conference championships that swept two regular season games are 2-0 in these "third" games
Teams with better records that swept two regular season games are 3-0 in these "third" games
The only loss in a "third" game occurred when the 9-7 Seahawks played at the 12-4 Raiders.
Again, when I hear how difficult it is to win the "third" time, I expect something different than what the history shows.
Bri, I agree with you if your point is to warn Steeler fans that this game is not in the bag for Pittsburgh. However, having lost four of their past five AFC home championship games, I don't think Steeler fans are overconfident against any team, and especially not one that played the Steelers very closely both previous games this season.
Bottom line on this for me is that there is nothing intrinsically difficult about defeating the same team three times in one season. It neither helps nor hurts; the game stands on its own. If the Steelers had to defeat the Ravens three times this Sunday, then it would indeed be diffcult, but all the Steelers are trying to do is beat the Ravens in one game this Sunday evening.
Such a condescending post.
Such a condescending post.What an ###.
