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AFC Divisional Game: Indy at Denver (1 Viewer)

Anarchy99 said:
I'm pretty sure the Pats would rather play IND than BAL.
Click to expand...
Honestly I'd rather the Pats play the Ravens. They were the 6th seed for a reason. One big win over a division rival doesn't suddenly make them better. They had the 6th easiest schedule in the league this year and the only team over .500 they beat was the Steelers. This isn't the same Ravens team as '09-'12, and this isn't the same Pats team either. A healthy Gronk and arguably one of the best secondaries in the league and a surging LB corps makes this a whole different game.

And my prediction, Colts over Broncos 35-28, as Luck makes a 4th quarter comeback to silence the Denver crowd and once again cementing Peyton's legacy as a playoff choker.

 
devouredbychaos said:
Anarchy99 said:
I'm pretty sure the Pats would rather play IND than BAL.
Click to expand...
Honestly I'd rather the Pats play the Ravens. They were the 6th seed for a reason. One big win over a division rival doesn't suddenly make them better. They had the 6th easiest schedule in the league this year and the only team over .500 they beat was the Steelers. This isn't the same Ravens team as '09-'12, and this isn't the same Pats team either. A healthy Gronk and arguably one of the best secondaries in the league and a surging LB corps makes this a whole different game.

And my prediction, Colts over Broncos 35-28, as Luck makes a 4th quarter comeback to silence the Denver crowd and once again cementing Peyton's legacy as a playoff choker.
Click to expand...
..... and I am really glad it's the Ravens as it would please me nothing higher than the Pattsies to get their rear ends kicked right out of the playoffs in their first game!

 
I love this match up for obvious reasons...

That said, I think Denver wins 31-23 or thereabouts. 8-0 at home this season. I don't see them losing now.

 
thatguy said:
I love this match up for obvious reasons...

That said, I think Denver wins 31-23 or thereabouts. 8-0 at home this season. I don't see them losing now.
Click to expand...
The bye week teams are a combined 30-2 at home, and that includes the Pats non-effort in a meaningless loss to BUF in Week 17.

 
6 weeks ago I would have predicted a huge Denver slaughter here but they have struggled of late against fairly bad teams. There is something up with Manning, their running game isn't getting it done...

I think this is much tighter than what some people think and I feel like the colts have a pretty good shot of pulling this out. If they do it does make Luck the new manning...he will elevate himself to a new level.

 
killface said:
6 weeks ago I would have predicted a huge Denver slaughter here but they have struggled of late against fairly bad teams. There is something up with Manning, their running game isn't getting it done...

I think this is much tighter than what some people think and I feel like the colts have a pretty good shot of pulling this out. If they do it does make Luck the new manning...he will elevate himself to a new level.
Click to expand...
the bolded above isn't really true. I know that's the national perspective, but here's some facts:

  • Denver held a 10+ point lead in all 12 games they won. any final margin less than that was a result of garbage time scoring.
  • Scoring has been down since StL game, but in terms of points/drive, they have actually been scoring at roughly the same pace, if not better. It looks different because it's slow and on the ground, but just as effective.
  • Broncos have played some really good defenses over the 2nd half of the season - KC(2), Buf (4), NEP (8), CIN (12), SD (13).
  • Over the last 5 games, the Broncos running game averaged 33 carries, 148 yards, 1.3 TDs. They averaged over 4.1 yards per carry in every game but vs SD.
Now, i'm not saying Manning is in top health - I'm not convinced he is. I do believe there is something there that bears watching. However, we have to note that there has been a significant shift in offensive philosophy after the StL game - a shift towards the run game in terms of personnel and play-calling, that has hurt Mannings numbers, escalated the running games numbers, and shortened the game (i.e. fewer possessions and therefore, lower scoring).

 
moleculo said:
killface said:
6 weeks ago I would have predicted a huge Denver slaughter here but they have struggled of late against fairly bad teams. There is something up with Manning, their running game isn't getting it done...

I think this is much tighter than what some people think and I feel like the colts have a pretty good shot of pulling this out. If they do it does make Luck the new manning...he will elevate himself to a new level.
Click to expand...
the bolded above isn't really true. I know that's the national perspective, but here's some facts:

  • Denver held a 10+ point lead in all 12 games they won. any final margin less than that was a result of garbage time scoring.
  • Scoring has been down since StL game, but in terms of points/drive, they have actually been scoring at roughly the same pace, if not better. It looks different because it's slow and on the ground, but just as effective.
  • Broncos have played some really good defenses over the 2nd half of the season - KC(2), Buf (4), NEP (8), CIN (12), SD (13).
  • Over the last 5 games, the Broncos running game averaged 33 carries, 148 yards, 1.3 TDs. They averaged over 4.1 yards per carry in every game but vs SD.
Now, i'm not saying Manning is in top health - I'm not convinced he is. I do believe there is something there that bears watching. However, we have to note that there has been a significant shift in offensive philosophy after the StL game - a shift towards the run game in terms of personnel and play-calling, that has hurt Mannings numbers, escalated the running games numbers, and shortened the game (i.e. fewer possessions and therefore, lower scoring).
Click to expand...
In Sept and Oct . . .

32 ppg, 398 yards per game, +12 per game point differential, 2 total turnovers

In Nov and Dec . . .

28 ppg, 406 yards per game, +5 per game point differential, 16 total turnovers

 
Anarchy99 said:
moleculo said:
killface said:
6 weeks ago I would have predicted a huge Denver slaughter here but they have struggled of late against fairly bad teams. There is something up with Manning, their running game isn't getting it done...

I think this is much tighter than what some people think and I feel like the colts have a pretty good shot of pulling this out. If they do it does make Luck the new manning...he will elevate himself to a new level.
Click to expand...
the bolded above isn't really true. I know that's the national perspective, but here's some facts:

  • Denver held a 10+ point lead in all 12 games they won. any final margin less than that was a result of garbage time scoring.
  • Scoring has been down since StL game, but in terms of points/drive, they have actually been scoring at roughly the same pace, if not better. It looks different because it's slow and on the ground, but just as effective.
  • Broncos have played some really good defenses over the 2nd half of the season - KC(2), Buf (4), NEP (8), CIN (12), SD (13).
  • Over the last 5 games, the Broncos running game averaged 33 carries, 148 yards, 1.3 TDs. They averaged over 4.1 yards per carry in every game but vs SD.
Now, i'm not saying Manning is in top health - I'm not convinced he is. I do believe there is something there that bears watching. However, we have to note that there has been a significant shift in offensive philosophy after the StL game - a shift towards the run game in terms of personnel and play-calling, that has hurt Mannings numbers, escalated the running games numbers, and shortened the game (i.e. fewer possessions and therefore, lower scoring).
Click to expand...
In Sept and Oct . . .

32 ppg, 398 yards per game, +12 per game point differential, 2 total turnovers

In Nov and Dec . . .

28 ppg, 406 yards per game, +5 per game point differential, 16 total turnovers
Click to expand...
the StL game was the pivot point.

Prior to that game, Broncos scored 2.51 points per drive. After that game, Broncos scored 2.66 points per drive.

Prior to the StL Game, Broncos punted 4.9 times per game. After that game, Broncos punted 3.3 times per game.

Something else to note: September and October: 5 home games, 2 road games. November and December: 3 home games, 6 road games.

 
moleculo said:
Anarchy99 said:
moleculo said:
killface said:
6 weeks ago I would have predicted a huge Denver slaughter here but they have struggled of late against fairly bad teams. There is something up with Manning, their running game isn't getting it done...

I think this is much tighter than what some people think and I feel like the colts have a pretty good shot of pulling this out. If they do it does make Luck the new manning...he will elevate himself to a new level.
Click to expand...
the bolded above isn't really true. I know that's the national perspective, but here's some facts:

  • Denver held a 10+ point lead in all 12 games they won. any final margin less than that was a result of garbage time scoring.
  • Scoring has been down since StL game, but in terms of points/drive, they have actually been scoring at roughly the same pace, if not better. It looks different because it's slow and on the ground, but just as effective.
  • Broncos have played some really good defenses over the 2nd half of the season - KC(2), Buf (4), NEP (8), CIN (12), SD (13).
  • Over the last 5 games, the Broncos running game averaged 33 carries, 148 yards, 1.3 TDs. They averaged over 4.1 yards per carry in every game but vs SD.
Now, i'm not saying Manning is in top health - I'm not convinced he is. I do believe there is something there that bears watching. However, we have to note that there has been a significant shift in offensive philosophy after the StL game - a shift towards the run game in terms of personnel and play-calling, that has hurt Mannings numbers, escalated the running games numbers, and shortened the game (i.e. fewer possessions and therefore, lower scoring).
Click to expand...
In Sept and Oct . . .

32 ppg, 398 yards per game, +12 per game point differential, 2 total turnovers

In Nov and Dec . . .

28 ppg, 406 yards per game, +5 per game point differential, 16 total turnovers
Click to expand...
the StL game was the pivot point.

Prior to that game, Broncos scored 2.51 points per drive. After that game, Broncos scored 2.66 points per drive.

Prior to the StL Game, Broncos punted 4.9 times per game. After that game, Broncos punted 3.3 times per game.

Something else to note: September and October: 5 home games, 2 road games. November and December: 3 home games, 6 road games.
Click to expand...
It definitely feels like Denver has peaked a little early. The turnovers from Manning would be one of my main concerns. Maybe it was all the road games, hard to say at this point. Given everything though I wouldn't take the Broncos to walk all over the Colts. I think Luck can keep them in this game

I also don't think that is a list of top defenses. Outside of a couple of defenses this year (Seattle seems to peeking at the right time) most defenses were pretty average this year. Miami seemed to play well against denver then got tore a new one by the Jets for example.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Anarchy99 said:
thatguy said:
I love this match up for obvious reasons...

That said, I think Denver wins 31-23 or thereabouts. 8-0 at home this season. I don't see them losing now.
Click to expand...
The bye week teams are a combined 30-2 at home, and that includes the Pats non-effort in a meaningless loss to BUF in Week 17.
Click to expand...
That is a pretty amazing stat. Thanks for posting. I fully expect the trend to continue.
 
killface said:
moleculo said:
Anarchy99 said:
moleculo said:
killface said:
6 weeks ago I would have predicted a huge Denver slaughter here but they have struggled of late against fairly bad teams. There is something up with Manning, their running game isn't getting it done...

I think this is much tighter than what some people think and I feel like the colts have a pretty good shot of pulling this out. If they do it does make Luck the new manning...he will elevate himself to a new level.
Click to expand...
the bolded above isn't really true. I know that's the national perspective, but here's some facts:
  • Denver held a 10+ point lead in all 12 games they won. any final margin less than that was a result of garbage time scoring.
  • Scoring has been down since StL game, but in terms of points/drive, they have actually been scoring at roughly the same pace, if not better. It looks different because it's slow and on the ground, but just as effective.
  • Broncos have played some really good defenses over the 2nd half of the season - KC(2), Buf (4), NEP (8), CIN (12), SD (13).
  • Over the last 5 games, the Broncos running game averaged 33 carries, 148 yards, 1.3 TDs. They averaged over 4.1 yards per carry in every game but vs SD.
Now, i'm not saying Manning is in top health - I'm not convinced he is. I do believe there is something there that bears watching. However, we have to note that there has been a significant shift in offensive philosophy after the StL game - a shift towards the run game in terms of personnel and play-calling, that has hurt Mannings numbers, escalated the running games numbers, and shortened the game (i.e. fewer possessions and therefore, lower scoring).
Click to expand...
In Sept and Oct . . .32 ppg, 398 yards per game, +12 per game point differential, 2 total turnovers

In Nov and Dec . . .

28 ppg, 406 yards per game, +5 per game point differential, 16 total turnovers
Click to expand...
the StL game was the pivot point.Prior to that game, Broncos scored 2.51 points per drive. After that game, Broncos scored 2.66 points per drive.

Prior to the StL Game, Broncos punted 4.9 times per game. After that game, Broncos punted 3.3 times per game.

Something else to note: September and October: 5 home games, 2 road games. November and December: 3 home games, 6 road games.
Click to expand...
It definitely feels like Denver has peaked a little early. The turnovers from Manning would be one of my main concerns. Maybe it was all the road games, hard to say at this point. Given everything though I wouldn't take the Broncos to walk all over the Colts. I think Luck can keep them in this game

I also don't think that is a list of top defenses. Outside of a couple of defenses this year (Seattle seems to peeking at the right time) most defenses were pretty average this year. Miami seemed to play well against denver then got tore a new one by the Jets for example.
Click to expand...
yeah, I'm concerned about the turnovers. Manning has been struggling to put anything on the ball if he can't get his feet set, and that's part of it. I'm seeing a rumor that when he re-tooled his throwing motion to deal with the shoulder/neck thing, it involved using his whole body...that put a lot of stress on his inner thigh, which are starting to fail him, and it's degenerative. It seems to especially effect him when he has pressure in his face and can't get his feet set, and also throws to the sideline that require rotating the body. it's actually a pretty good read - it's in the comments of this blog.

 
I'll preface my comments by stating that I'm a Colts :homer:

These Colts are paper champions. They fold up against quality competition. They SHOULD lose this game by 3 scores. The problem is two-fold:

1) They are playing Peyton Manning and John Fox. I love me some Peyton, but he is playing by Fox's rules these days which means to run first and play conservatively. This is where Peyton gets in trouble. He gets anxious and starts to press and makes terrible plays by trying to do too much. I've seen it many times. If Denver comes out running the ball and slowing down the offense, they stand a strong chance of losing this game.

2) The Colts have Luck. He's a fearless SOB and a gamer. Unfortunately for him, he is hampered by a conservative HC and OC. The Colts will also try to slow down the game. If they do that then Luck doesn't have enough around him to overcome the team's other weaknesses. The Colts need to throw caution to the wind and come out guns blazing.

My prediction for the game will come in the first offensive series for each team. I say the team that goes run-run-incomplete pass will be the one that loses. I'm hopeful as a Colts fan, but I just have zero confidence in Pep Hamilton and Pagano to "Let 'er Rip!"

 
moleculo said:
thatguy said:
That's a depressing read... thanks for sharing though.
Click to expand...
yeah. At this point, I'm just hoping we can get three more games out of Manning.
Click to expand...
Do you really think it's that bad? That's so droll... But I've been telling my friends for the past two years to enjoy every moment we have Peyton because it could be over like that. I know I've made a point to do this. Many others chose to ##### and whine about his shortcomings instead, never seeing the forest for the trees. If this is the end, thanks for the ride PFM. It's been nothing short of spectacular, Super Bowl or not.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
moleculo said:
killface said:
moleculo said:
Anarchy99 said:
moleculo said:
killface said:
6 weeks ago I would have predicted a huge Denver slaughter here but they have struggled of late against fairly bad teams. There is something up with Manning, their running game isn't getting it done...

I think this is much tighter than what some people think and I feel like the colts have a pretty good shot of pulling this out. If they do it does make Luck the new manning...he will elevate himself to a new level.
Click to expand...
the bolded above isn't really true. I know that's the national perspective, but here's some facts:
  • Denver held a 10+ point lead in all 12 games they won. any final margin less than that was a result of garbage time scoring.
  • Scoring has been down since StL game, but in terms of points/drive, they have actually been scoring at roughly the same pace, if not better. It looks different because it's slow and on the ground, but just as effective.
  • Broncos have played some really good defenses over the 2nd half of the season - KC(2), Buf (4), NEP (8), CIN (12), SD (13).
  • Over the last 5 games, the Broncos running game averaged 33 carries, 148 yards, 1.3 TDs. They averaged over 4.1 yards per carry in every game but vs SD.
Now, i'm not saying Manning is in top health - I'm not convinced he is. I do believe there is something there that bears watching. However, we have to note that there has been a significant shift in offensive philosophy after the StL game - a shift towards the run game in terms of personnel and play-calling, that has hurt Mannings numbers, escalated the running games numbers, and shortened the game (i.e. fewer possessions and therefore, lower scoring).
Click to expand...
In Sept and Oct . . .32 ppg, 398 yards per game, +12 per game point differential, 2 total turnovers

In Nov and Dec . . .

28 ppg, 406 yards per game, +5 per game point differential, 16 total turnovers
Click to expand...
the StL game was the pivot point.Prior to that game, Broncos scored 2.51 points per drive. After that game, Broncos scored 2.66 points per drive.

Prior to the StL Game, Broncos punted 4.9 times per game. After that game, Broncos punted 3.3 times per game.

Something else to note: September and October: 5 home games, 2 road games. November and December: 3 home games, 6 road games.
Click to expand...
It definitely feels like Denver has peaked a little early. The turnovers from Manning would be one of my main concerns. Maybe it was all the road games, hard to say at this point. Given everything though I wouldn't take the Broncos to walk all over the Colts. I think Luck can keep them in this game

I also don't think that is a list of top defenses. Outside of a couple of defenses this year (Seattle seems to peeking at the right time) most defenses were pretty average this year. Miami seemed to play well against denver then got tore a new one by the Jets for example.
Click to expand...
yeah, I'm concerned about the turnovers. Manning has been struggling to put anything on the ball if he can't get his feet set, and that's part of it. I'm seeing a rumor that when he re-tooled his throwing motion to deal with the shoulder/neck thing, it involved using his whole body...that put a lot of stress on his inner thigh, which are starting to fail him, and it's degenerative. It seems to especially effect him when he has pressure in his face and can't get his feet set, and also throws to the sideline that require rotating the body. it's actually a pretty good read - it's in the comments of this blog.
Click to expand...
I wanted to bump this because I think this post/link is flying under the radar. As Moleculo says, it's an interesting albeit depressing read for anyone interested in the cause of Peyton's late season decline. Granted it's just two guys opinions, but it makes a lot of sense. The relevant information is in the comments section of the article for those interested.

 
purestrength said:
Weather looking yucky in Denver. Advantage: Indy.
Click to expand...
??

a dome team on the road, who cannot run or stop the run, vs the home team who has been practicing in conditions all week, can run and stop the run? I'm not sure I see the advantage here.

besides - conditions don't look too bad - kickoff forecast is roughly 40 dF, no rain, maybe 5 mph wind. Certainly not bad enough to make a difference.

 
High temp expected to be 39. I know Peyton's history in below-40 playoff games and I'm sure the Indy players & coaching staff know it. They'll key extra hard on C.J.

They'll make Peyton throw the ball, which may not be a pretty sight. I mean uglier than late this regular season.

Denver's best hope will be getting a pick-six or two. This is coming from a 17-year Peyton fan.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
purestrength said:
High temp expected to be 39. I know Peyton's history in below-40 playoff games and I'm sure the Indy players & coaching staff know it. They'll key extra hard on C.J.

They'll make Peyton throw the ball, which may not be a pretty sight. I mean uglier than late this regular season.

Denver's best hope will be getting a pick-six or two. This is coming from a 17-year Peyton fan.
Click to expand...
As Manning played most of his career in a dome, the above is really a surrogate for road games late in the season, mostly in the playoffs.

It would make me very happy to see Indy stack the box, singling up DT, JT, Sanders, and Welker.

 
Should be fun game got the chicken soup ready to go and a great salad. I think that Luck will impact this game the most. He has been turnover prone this year. Herron must be effective but on the road it could be tough. Anderson is the thrust for the Broncos. He has been terrific for the last third of the season.

 
I, for one, really hope sho doesn't save his uncanny ability to provide wit, at the expense of the handicapped, to just Packer game threads.

 
Not a fan of that call. Initial contact was to the thighs and was not hard/egregious.

 
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