AFC playoff picture (1 Viewer)

[massraider]

This is the first week I have actually looked at the standings.

Three teams in the AFC East with the same record, no one has an advantage in divisional record yet.

Three teams in the North within a half game of each other, all three with better records than anyone in the East or West. Division-leading Bengals have only played one game in their division thus far.

Every team in the West is in it, for a chance to get a playoff berth by virtue of playing in the weakest division in the conference.

Houston seems to have the division in hand, with a very do-able schedule the rest of the year.

Every week the rest of the season has major playoff implications, in one way or another, for teams in this conference, starting with Pats/Jets this week.

Unreal. Second half of this seaosn in this conference is going to be a blast.

 

[Chase Stuart]

One crappy team will eventually win the AFC West. Denver and KC are terrible. Oakland probably is the frontrunner unless Carson Palmer starts channeling Kyle Boller again. Either way, I'd be shocked if a WC came out of the West.

Similarly, the AFC South is only getting one team in. Houston's got the schedule to go for a bye.

The Ravens and Steelers are making the playoffs. Their schedules are too easy for them not to get the wins. Cincinnati already has six wins in hand, and have a good chance to get to 10-6. Anything more than that is probably too rosy to expect.

The Patriots are making the playoffs. They'll end up with at least 11 wins, look at their schedule.

The Jets are in the lead for that last spot. If they only get 10 wins, they'll deal with CIN and maybe Buffalo. 11 wins are possible but will require them not slipping up against the bad teams and splitting against the good ones. The division is possible, but more likely they're looking at a WC. Ironically, the Jets might need NE to beat Buffalo in the rematch to make the playoffs, although at that time they may still be gunning for the division. The three remaining games in that round robin will be enormous, of course.

If I had to guess, I'd say:

1. BAL

2. HOU

3. NE

4. OAK

5. PIT

6. NYJ

 

[Joe Summer]

I predict there will be an 11-win team that misses the playoffs, maybe even two of them. With so many teams sucking for Luck, the win totals are going to be inflated.

 

[spodog]

I predict there will be an 11-win team that misses the playoffs, maybe even two of them. With so many teams sucking for Luck, the win totals are going to be inflated.

I'd take that bet.

 

[Fensalk]

Yes the interesting battle is between the Bengals and Jets for a playoff spot.

If the Jets finish 10-6, I'd guess the 3 losses are at the hands of the Patriots, Eagles, and Giants. If the Bengals finish 10-6, the 4 losses are probably at the hands of the Steelers, Ravens, and maybe the Texans. That sounds reasonable. The Jets win the tiebreaker due to superior AFC record.

But let's say the Rams big win last week was no fluke, and they are about the get hot for some reason. They bear the Browns this week. A month from now, they knock off the Bengals. And let's say the Bengals split the 4 games with the Steelers and Ravens and lose to the Texans. Now the AFC records are equal.

Next tiebreaker is record in common games, minimum of four. Those games are...

den: Bengals 0-1, Jets 1-0

buf: Bengals 1-0, Jets 2-0

jax: Bengals 1-0, Jets 1-0

There are NOT four common games, so this tiebreaker gets skipped.

Next tiebreaker is strength of victory. That's number of wins your defeated opponents had at season's end.

Bengals: cle(3) + buf(5) + jax(2) + ind(0) + sea(2) + ten(4) = 16

Jets: dal(4) + jax(2) + mia(1) + sdg(4) + buf(5) = 16

So far strength of victory points in the Jets favor. However, I did extrapolate out the wins (and Strength of Victory) for the Bengals and Jets the rest of the way, assuming equal 10-6 records and equal AFC records. The Bengals pick up 17 more points, but the Jets only pick up 16. It turns out playing the Dolphins twice, who only have 1 win, hurt the Jets enough to cost them the SoV tiebreaker.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Jets curbstomped the Bills, but it's just one game. Can't come Buffalo out yet by any means. Their running game is awesome and their passing attack can be very effective. Buffalo has a larger points differential than either NYJ or NE.

 

[Fensalk]

Jets curbstomped the Bills, but it's just one game. Can't come Buffalo out yet by any means. Their running game is awesome and their passing attack can be very effective. Buffalo has a larger points differential than either NYJ or NE.

The critical blow to the Bills is that they LOST to the Bengals plus they already lost to the Jets. They'll probably need 11 wins minimum to get in. They lose the first tiebreaker, head-to-head record.

 

[Fensalk]

Basically the Jets problem (in the event of a 10-6 tie for the wild card) is that their toughest games are out of conference. If they win those games, it doesn't help them win the AFC record tiebreaker. But if they lose those games, it doesn't help them win the Strength of Victory tiebreaker. The Bengals tough games are the 4 with the Ravens and Steelers, which can boost both their SoV and AFC record.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Basically the Jets problem (in the event of a 10-6 tie for the wild card) is that their toughest games are out of conference. If they win those games, it doesn't help them win the AFC record tiebreaker. But if they lose those games, it doesn't help them win the Strength of Victory tiebreaker. The Bengals tough games are the 4 with the Ravens and Steelers, which can boost both their SoV and AFC record.

If the Jets win their tough out of conference games, they're not going to be 10-6.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Jets curbstomped the Bills, but it's just one game. Can't come Buffalo out yet by any means. Their running game is awesome and their passing attack can be very effective. Buffalo has a larger points differential than either NYJ or NE.

The critical blow to the Bills is that they LOST to the Bengals plus they already lost to the Jets. They'll probably need 11 wins minimum to get in. They lose the first tiebreaker, head-to-head record.

They don't lose a tiebreaker to the Jets yet. Jets, Pats and Bills are all 1-1 against each other.

 

[QuizGuy66]

As a Bengals fan, I've figured it'll take 11 wins (though I guess there's at least a chance 10 would be enough).

This entails winning the 3 supposedly "easier" games (St Louis, Cleveland, and Arizona) and going 2-3 against Houston, Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Will find out a lot tomorrow the real chance of this happening. Here's hoping.

-QG