The_Man
Footballguy
The NFL’s scheduling this year has been great. I can’t remember a year where the playoff picture was less settled with three weeks to go. I’m no expert, but here’s my look at the AFC playoff picture – feel free to correct.
East
New England (11-2)
Games: GB, @ Buff, Miami
Pretty much clinched the #1 seed for the AFC. One game up on Pittsburgh and holds the head-to-head, would have to go 1-2 and have the Steelers go 3-0 to lose the #1 seed.
North
Pittsburgh (10-3)
NYJ, Car, @Cle
Baltimore (9-4)
NO, @CLE, Cin
The winner of this division is in good shape for the #2 seed. One interesting fact: if the Steelers and Ravens finish tied at 12-4, the Steelers would still win the division if their loss would be to the Jets, because they would own the better divisional record. But if they were to lose to Cleveland instead, the Ravens and Steelers would be tied H2H, divisional, common opponents, and AFC, leading to the Strength of Victory tie-breaker. The Ravens currently hold a 3-game edge there, and the Steelers might have some trouble making it up, since 2 of their victories are over 2-win Cincinnati, while only one of the Ravens' is.
I think it’s unlikely for the Ravens to win out, and for the Steelers to lose to Cleveland, so this division is looking good for Pittsburgh. Just remember that a Steelers loss to the Jets doesn’t really hurt them from getting the #2 seed – it would be a second loss and/or a loss to Cleveland that really matters.
South
Jacksonville (8-5)
@ Indy, Wash, @Hou
Indy (7-6)
Jax, @Oak, Tenn
If the Jags beat the Colts this week, they clinch the division. The worst they could do is tie the Colts at 9-7 and they would own the Head to Head tiebreaker. If the Colts win this week, and then win out, they would win the division. If the Colts win this game, but then lose one of their last two, then it’s a toss-up based on whether they lose in or out of the division and what the Jags do.
West
KC (8-5)
@STL, Ten, Oak
SD (7-6)
SF, @Cin, @ Den
Obviously, KC wins the west if they finish ahead of SD. They are 6-0 at home and their schedule isn’t that tough, so they could clearly win out and claim the #3 seed. As it turns out, they better win out, because if the Chiefs lose one game and SD wins out, then SD gets the division championship.
The teams are tied H2H and both 2-3 in the division. So if KC loses in the division, they lose on basis of divisional record. The next tie-breaker is common opponents. KC is 2-0 vs. non-common opponents (Cleveland and Buffalo) while SD is 1-1. So take away 2 wins from KC and only one from SD, and they’re your division champ.
If SD loses once and KC loses twice to finish in a 9-7 tie, it gets complicated. If either team loses a division game and the other doesn’t, then the team that loses a division game is out. I really believe SD wins out, and I think KC wins its two home games – so the West could come down to the KC-STL game this week.
The 3 and 4 seeds are impossible to predict right now.
Wild Card
Baltimore (9-4)
NO, @Cle, Cin
NYJ (9-4)
@Pitt, @ Chi, Buff
Loser of the South (10-6 at best)
Loser of the West (10-6 at best)
Both 9-4 teams seem to be in decent position. If they win twice, they clinch. Even if they go 1-2, they do no worse than tie for the Wild Card. If the Chargers lose a game, they are almost certainly out of the Wild Card mix. The Colts aren’t really in the mix. They’ll either win out and win the South, or drop out of the playoff picture with their seventh loss.
The Jags and Chiefs will get throw into the mix if they lose a game and drop out of their divisional lead.
I haven’t crunched all the scenarios yet, but it looks like the Jets don’t do very well in tie-breakers if there’s a big cluster of teams at 10-6. It looks like the only way a 9-win team makes it is if the Colts beat the Jags, but then lose another game. It seems to me that at least one 10-win team won't make the playoffs from the AFC. The Jags-Colts game is also huge for teams fighting for the Wild Card. If the Jags win, it effectively opens up a Wild Card spot by giving the South to Jax and taking Indy out of the hunt. But if the Colts win, the Jags could definitely win their last two (Wash, @Houston) and be alive for the Wild Card.
If I had to make my prediction for the playoffs it would be:
1 - New England (13-3)
2 - Pittsburgh (13-3)
3 - San Diego (10-6)
4 - Jacksonville (10-6)
5 - Baltimore (11-5)
6 - Jets (10-6)
The Jets need to either win twice or hope that San Diego and the Jaguars elevate themselves into divisional champs, because they don't fare well in various scenarios if the Chiefs and/or Colts knock the Chargers and Jags into the Wild Card pool at 10-6.
East
New England (11-2)
Games: GB, @ Buff, Miami
Pretty much clinched the #1 seed for the AFC. One game up on Pittsburgh and holds the head-to-head, would have to go 1-2 and have the Steelers go 3-0 to lose the #1 seed.
North
Pittsburgh (10-3)
NYJ, Car, @Cle
Baltimore (9-4)
NO, @CLE, Cin
The winner of this division is in good shape for the #2 seed. One interesting fact: if the Steelers and Ravens finish tied at 12-4, the Steelers would still win the division if their loss would be to the Jets, because they would own the better divisional record. But if they were to lose to Cleveland instead, the Ravens and Steelers would be tied H2H, divisional, common opponents, and AFC, leading to the Strength of Victory tie-breaker. The Ravens currently hold a 3-game edge there, and the Steelers might have some trouble making it up, since 2 of their victories are over 2-win Cincinnati, while only one of the Ravens' is.
I think it’s unlikely for the Ravens to win out, and for the Steelers to lose to Cleveland, so this division is looking good for Pittsburgh. Just remember that a Steelers loss to the Jets doesn’t really hurt them from getting the #2 seed – it would be a second loss and/or a loss to Cleveland that really matters.
South
Jacksonville (8-5)
@ Indy, Wash, @Hou
Indy (7-6)
Jax, @Oak, Tenn
If the Jags beat the Colts this week, they clinch the division. The worst they could do is tie the Colts at 9-7 and they would own the Head to Head tiebreaker. If the Colts win this week, and then win out, they would win the division. If the Colts win this game, but then lose one of their last two, then it’s a toss-up based on whether they lose in or out of the division and what the Jags do.
West
KC (8-5)
@STL, Ten, Oak
SD (7-6)
SF, @Cin, @ Den
Obviously, KC wins the west if they finish ahead of SD. They are 6-0 at home and their schedule isn’t that tough, so they could clearly win out and claim the #3 seed. As it turns out, they better win out, because if the Chiefs lose one game and SD wins out, then SD gets the division championship.
The teams are tied H2H and both 2-3 in the division. So if KC loses in the division, they lose on basis of divisional record. The next tie-breaker is common opponents. KC is 2-0 vs. non-common opponents (Cleveland and Buffalo) while SD is 1-1. So take away 2 wins from KC and only one from SD, and they’re your division champ.
If SD loses once and KC loses twice to finish in a 9-7 tie, it gets complicated. If either team loses a division game and the other doesn’t, then the team that loses a division game is out. I really believe SD wins out, and I think KC wins its two home games – so the West could come down to the KC-STL game this week.
The 3 and 4 seeds are impossible to predict right now.
Wild Card
Baltimore (9-4)
NO, @Cle, Cin
NYJ (9-4)
@Pitt, @ Chi, Buff
Loser of the South (10-6 at best)
Loser of the West (10-6 at best)
Both 9-4 teams seem to be in decent position. If they win twice, they clinch. Even if they go 1-2, they do no worse than tie for the Wild Card. If the Chargers lose a game, they are almost certainly out of the Wild Card mix. The Colts aren’t really in the mix. They’ll either win out and win the South, or drop out of the playoff picture with their seventh loss.
The Jags and Chiefs will get throw into the mix if they lose a game and drop out of their divisional lead.
I haven’t crunched all the scenarios yet, but it looks like the Jets don’t do very well in tie-breakers if there’s a big cluster of teams at 10-6. It looks like the only way a 9-win team makes it is if the Colts beat the Jags, but then lose another game. It seems to me that at least one 10-win team won't make the playoffs from the AFC. The Jags-Colts game is also huge for teams fighting for the Wild Card. If the Jags win, it effectively opens up a Wild Card spot by giving the South to Jax and taking Indy out of the hunt. But if the Colts win, the Jags could definitely win their last two (Wash, @Houston) and be alive for the Wild Card.
If I had to make my prediction for the playoffs it would be:
1 - New England (13-3)
2 - Pittsburgh (13-3)
3 - San Diego (10-6)
4 - Jacksonville (10-6)
5 - Baltimore (11-5)
6 - Jets (10-6)
The Jets need to either win twice or hope that San Diego and the Jaguars elevate themselves into divisional champs, because they don't fare well in various scenarios if the Chiefs and/or Colts knock the Chargers and Jags into the Wild Card pool at 10-6.
