BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/conten...p;storyid=28733
AFC Projected Carries
Last week, we projected the carries for every NFC running back. Now let's look at the coaches and runners in the AFC. Remember, the average rushes per year for each coach is only at their current job. We are only counting attempts from running backs.
Baltimore Ravens
Coach: Brian Billick, Average Rushes/Year: 427
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 415
Billick has a reputation for passing, but he loves to pound the football. Last year's 405 carries from his backs was actually the third lowest total in his eight years despite a 13-3 record. He could more with Willis McGahee in town.
Willis McGahee: 325
Mike Anderson: 55
Musa Smith: 35
McGahee, like Jamal Lewis in recent years, probably won't have to play well to get a lot of carries. He struggled with a big workload early last year, but he should be among the league leaders in attempts if healthy. It makes him safer than most RB2s, even if his talent is questionable. I flip-flopped Anderson and Smith recently because of camp reports. Smith is more likely to get passing down work, though.
Buffalo Bills
Coach: **** Jauron, Average Rushes/Year: 368
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 380
Jauron still leans run, but he's not quite as conservative as he was in Chicago. Offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild's has a lot to do with that. This team would ideally be balanced. Jauron consistently says he wants to use a running back by committee this season, and we believe him to a degree.
Marshawn Lynch: 245
Anthony Thomas: 90
Dwayne Wright: 45
Difficult team to project. I see the Buffalo backups getting more carries than the average reserves, but Lynch's talent should win out over time. Don't be shocked, though, if the Bills run something similar to a Joseph Addai/Dominic Rhodes situation at the beginning of the season. Lynch could be slightly overheated in fantasy leagues if he's not a workhorse as a rookie.
** For a look at our running back cheatsheets, check out our online draft guide. Or watch Tiffan and I talk about them on the Fantasy Fix.
Cincinnati Bengals
Coach: Marvin Lewis, Average Rushes/Year: 404
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 410
The Bengals, like the Colts, pass to set up the run. Their attempts will wind up being average, but they don't run often in the first half. Rudi Johnson gets his carries when they are holding on to victories.
Rudi Johnson: 330
Kenny Watson: 55
Quincy Wilson: 25
Rudi was my example of a player who has great value even when he's not playing well. None of Rudi's backups have topped 61 carries since Corey Dillon left town. The Bengals drafted Kenny Irons to help share the load, but Irons' season-ending injury has Cincy searching again. Don't be surprised if the team uses the waiver wire later in the month to pick up a back like Kevan Barlow. Chris Perry's status is a total mystery, but I'm not expecting him to make an impact.
Cleveland Browns
Coach: Romeo Crennel, Average Rushes/Year: 334
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 350
The Browns have been near the bottom of the league in rushing attempts under Romeo Crennel. That is a reflection of the poor overall offense instead of a true pass-first mindset. The Browns would like to run more this season, but it's unlikely they will be effective enough to do so consistently.
Jamal Lewis: 235
Jason Wright: 60
Jerome Harrison: 55
Lewis' projection could be low, but we just can't support drafting a player who has performed like he has the last two years. Offseason puff pieces aside, there's no reason to think he'll suddenly turn back the clock. Harrison will play third downs and has some sleeper potential. He's had a strong offseason.
Denver Broncos
Coach: Mike Shanahan, Average Rushes/Year: 438
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 450
I decided to average the post-Elway years only. Denver has skewed more heavily towards the run than ever in recent seasons, perhaps because of the lack of an elite starting quarterback. They topped 450 carries in the three years before 2006, and still topped 425 last season despite below-average results.
Travis Henry: 295
Mike Bell: 115
Cecil Sapp: 40
Henry has only started 16 games in his career once, although he only missed one game to injury in both 2003 and 2006. There is potential for 350 carries, but we don't believe Henry will get there. Mike Shanahan can be fickle with playing time. Mike Bell, after winning back the No. 2 job, is our favorite true backup in fantasy football because of Denver's high attempt totals.
Houston Texans
Coach: Gary Kubiak, Average Rushes/Year: 365
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 375
The Texans were balanced in Gary Kubiak's first season as a head coach. The team was more effective running, like many of the teams Kubiak coordinated in Denver.
Ahman Green: 225
Ron Dayne: 100
Samkon Gado: 25
Wali Lundy: 25
It's difficult to build injury risk into projections, but it would be foolish to ignore Ahman Green's risk at age 30. He noticeably wore down late last season and hasn't topped 266 carries in the last three seasons. Kubiak knows this and will get his backups involved more than most teams.
Indianapolis Colts
Coach: Tony Dungy, Average Rushes/Year: 407
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 410
Peyton Manning certainly helps the Indy rushing game, but he can work against a high attempt total. The team passes in the first half to set up the run. And opposing offenses limit the Colts' drives by milking the clock. That leads to an average rush total for the Colts, although they are highly effective.
Joseph Addai 305
DeDe Dorsey: 90
Assorted Flotsam: 15
Last season was the first in the Tony Dungy era that he employed a running back committee. Joseph Addai hasn't been a primary back before, so the Colts should be conscious of overworking him. Addai has a huge role on third downs and should top 350 touches with ease. He can be a top-five player with that total, but 400-450 touches is a stretch. Dorsey remains one of our favorite deep sleepers.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Coach: Jack Del Rio, Average Rushes/Year: 423
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 440
Jack Del Rio teams run early and often. His average is especially impressive considering the Jacksonville offense hasn't excelled during his coaching reign. They hit 444 carries from running backs last year with an 8-8 squad. The Jaguars should be among the league leaders in attempts.
Fred Taylor: 200
Maurice Jones-Drew: 180
Greg Jones: 40
Assorted Flotsam: 20
They aren't paying Fred Taylor $5 million to climb the all-time rushing list. He's going to have a bigger role than Mo-Jo owners want to admit. Jones-Drew will get much of his value from his work on third downs and the goal line. He better hope Greg Jones doesn't become a vulture.
Kansas City Chiefs
Coach: Herm Edwards, Average Rushes/Year: 470
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 440
It's no surprise that Herm Edwards coached a running back to the all-time rushing attempts record. His old Jets teams were among the slowest paced units in recent NFL history. The Chiefs will remain run-heavy this season, but an overall offensive decline will hurt their total.
Larry Johnson: 320
Michael Bennett: 70
Kolby Smith: 50
I see the Chiefs running attack playing out in one of three ways.
1. Herm Edwards could keep up Johnson's pace from last year and LJ will break down.
2. Herm Edwards could get the backups more involved starting in Week 1 and LJ could stay healthy.
3. Herm Edwards could get the backups more involved and LJ could get hurt anyway.
No matter how you slice it, Johnson's attempts should decline significantly. And so will his fantasy value.
Miami Dolphins
Coach: Cam Cameron, Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 360
Cameron's teams in San Diego were run-first enterprises, but not always aggressively so when the game was close. It's unlikely Cameron has the offensive line to push people around this year and pile up rushing attempts.
Ronnie Brown: 280
Lorenzo Booker: 65
Jesse Chatman: 15
Brown should set a career high in attempts this year, but the Miami offense may keep him under 300. Booker is likely to help on third downs.
New England Patriots
Coach: Bill Belichick, Average Rushes/Year: 405
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 440
The Patriots are a pass-first team, but their rushing game benefits from their consistently effective passing attack. They have averaged 430 attempts the last four years, which is a good indicator for 2007.
Laurence Maroney: 285
Sammy Morris: 100
Kevin Faulk: 35
Heath Evans: 20
The Patriots like to spread the ball around, especially in the red zone. That could limit Maroney's carries somewhat. They won't overwork him like Corey Dillon in 2004. But Maroney will be fine (say it with me) if he stays healthy. If Maroney gets hurt, Morris, Faulk, and Evans would all get a taste.
New York Jets
Coach: Eric Mangini, Average Rushes/Year: 426
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 400
The Jets ran the ball a ton considering how ineffective they were (3.54 YPC). I suspect that was in part to shorten games and keep their rush defense off the field.
Thomas Jones: 260
Leon Washington: 110
Assorted Flotsam: 30
I might be guilty of overrating Washington. But Thomas Jones has proven more effective with fewer carries, and Washington's excellent rookie season is worth of 6-10 carries a game. The Jets should share the ball to maximize their offense, and I suspect they will. His recent calf strain is not a serious concern.
Oakland Raiders
Coach: Lane Kiffin, Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 360
The Raiders want to run, but will they be effective enough? Lane Kiffin used a committee at USC, and it looks like he'll go that route again when he has enough bodies.
LaMont Jordan: 195
Dominic Rhodes: 100
Michael Bush: 50
Justin Fargas: 25
Jordan's total is buoyed by the first month of the season when Rhodes is on suspension. The schedule is favorable early, so Jordan could earn lead back status with some good numbers. He's the best pro of this group. Bush's status is unknown, but I'd be shocked if he played during the first half of the season. He hasn't fully practiced as a pro, and we've heard nothing optimistic this month.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Coach: Mike Tomlin, Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 415
Reading the tealeaves in Pittsburgh, the Steelers won't as run-heavy under Mike Tomlin and coordinator Bruce Arians as they were under Bill Cowher. Few teams are. Look for the Steelers to run plenty, but nothing like the 2004-2005 Steelers.
Willie Parker: 320
Najeh Davenport: 75
Verron Haynes/Kevan Barlow: 20
Parker has a chance to be among the league leaders in carries. Despite his boom-or-bust tendencies, he doesn't have much downside in fantasy leagues because of his job security. Davenport may play a big role on third downs, but he isn't expected to get many early-down carries.
San Diego Chargers
Coach: Norv Turner, Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 450
Turner has a great reputation as a quarterback teacher and fantasy running back enabler, but his history as a head coach is decidedly average on offense. His Washington teams skewed run slightly, but his Oakland teams were forced to rely on the pass. The Chargers had 461 carries from their backs last season.
LaDainian Tomlinson: 335
Michael Turner: 90
Darren Sproles: 25
Perhaps Tomlinson's most underrated trait is his durability. He's finished among the top-six in rushing attempts in five of the last six years. There has been no indication that Michael Turner will have a bigger role this season.
Tennessee Titans
Coach: Jeff Fisher, Average Rushes/Year: 400
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 385
I think of Jeff Fisher as a run-heavy coach, but the numbers don't always back it up. Since Eddie George retired, the Titans have averaged 370 carries a year. That number has a lot do with Tennessee's poor offense overall. They were third in the league in rush percentage in the first half of games last season, according to FootballOutsiders.com.
LenDale White: 205
Chris Brown: 115
Chris Henry: 60
Rotoworld has been driving the LenDale White bandwagon all offseason. Unfortunately, LenDale is on it or it would go faster. (With that, I swear to retire all LenWhale fat jokes).
You aren't going to find a higher upside selection than White for a RB3 in the sixth round or later. His Average Draft Position is starting to improve with Henry clearly lagging behind Brown and White in camp. Henry had a nice preseason game against third-stringers, but that's not a big concern. The Titans know what Brown can do, and would rather White take charge of this job. For the right price, we're gambling he does just that.
AFC Projected Carries
Last week, we projected the carries for every NFC running back. Now let's look at the coaches and runners in the AFC. Remember, the average rushes per year for each coach is only at their current job. We are only counting attempts from running backs.
Baltimore Ravens
Coach: Brian Billick, Average Rushes/Year: 427
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 415
Billick has a reputation for passing, but he loves to pound the football. Last year's 405 carries from his backs was actually the third lowest total in his eight years despite a 13-3 record. He could more with Willis McGahee in town.
Willis McGahee: 325
Mike Anderson: 55
Musa Smith: 35
McGahee, like Jamal Lewis in recent years, probably won't have to play well to get a lot of carries. He struggled with a big workload early last year, but he should be among the league leaders in attempts if healthy. It makes him safer than most RB2s, even if his talent is questionable. I flip-flopped Anderson and Smith recently because of camp reports. Smith is more likely to get passing down work, though.
Buffalo Bills
Coach: **** Jauron, Average Rushes/Year: 368
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 380
Jauron still leans run, but he's not quite as conservative as he was in Chicago. Offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild's has a lot to do with that. This team would ideally be balanced. Jauron consistently says he wants to use a running back by committee this season, and we believe him to a degree.
Marshawn Lynch: 245
Anthony Thomas: 90
Dwayne Wright: 45
Difficult team to project. I see the Buffalo backups getting more carries than the average reserves, but Lynch's talent should win out over time. Don't be shocked, though, if the Bills run something similar to a Joseph Addai/Dominic Rhodes situation at the beginning of the season. Lynch could be slightly overheated in fantasy leagues if he's not a workhorse as a rookie.
** For a look at our running back cheatsheets, check out our online draft guide. Or watch Tiffan and I talk about them on the Fantasy Fix.
Cincinnati Bengals
Coach: Marvin Lewis, Average Rushes/Year: 404
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 410
The Bengals, like the Colts, pass to set up the run. Their attempts will wind up being average, but they don't run often in the first half. Rudi Johnson gets his carries when they are holding on to victories.
Rudi Johnson: 330
Kenny Watson: 55
Quincy Wilson: 25
Rudi was my example of a player who has great value even when he's not playing well. None of Rudi's backups have topped 61 carries since Corey Dillon left town. The Bengals drafted Kenny Irons to help share the load, but Irons' season-ending injury has Cincy searching again. Don't be surprised if the team uses the waiver wire later in the month to pick up a back like Kevan Barlow. Chris Perry's status is a total mystery, but I'm not expecting him to make an impact.
Cleveland Browns
Coach: Romeo Crennel, Average Rushes/Year: 334
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 350
The Browns have been near the bottom of the league in rushing attempts under Romeo Crennel. That is a reflection of the poor overall offense instead of a true pass-first mindset. The Browns would like to run more this season, but it's unlikely they will be effective enough to do so consistently.
Jamal Lewis: 235
Jason Wright: 60
Jerome Harrison: 55
Lewis' projection could be low, but we just can't support drafting a player who has performed like he has the last two years. Offseason puff pieces aside, there's no reason to think he'll suddenly turn back the clock. Harrison will play third downs and has some sleeper potential. He's had a strong offseason.
Denver Broncos
Coach: Mike Shanahan, Average Rushes/Year: 438
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 450
I decided to average the post-Elway years only. Denver has skewed more heavily towards the run than ever in recent seasons, perhaps because of the lack of an elite starting quarterback. They topped 450 carries in the three years before 2006, and still topped 425 last season despite below-average results.
Travis Henry: 295
Mike Bell: 115
Cecil Sapp: 40
Henry has only started 16 games in his career once, although he only missed one game to injury in both 2003 and 2006. There is potential for 350 carries, but we don't believe Henry will get there. Mike Shanahan can be fickle with playing time. Mike Bell, after winning back the No. 2 job, is our favorite true backup in fantasy football because of Denver's high attempt totals.
Houston Texans
Coach: Gary Kubiak, Average Rushes/Year: 365
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 375
The Texans were balanced in Gary Kubiak's first season as a head coach. The team was more effective running, like many of the teams Kubiak coordinated in Denver.
Ahman Green: 225
Ron Dayne: 100
Samkon Gado: 25
Wali Lundy: 25
It's difficult to build injury risk into projections, but it would be foolish to ignore Ahman Green's risk at age 30. He noticeably wore down late last season and hasn't topped 266 carries in the last three seasons. Kubiak knows this and will get his backups involved more than most teams.
Indianapolis Colts
Coach: Tony Dungy, Average Rushes/Year: 407
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 410
Peyton Manning certainly helps the Indy rushing game, but he can work against a high attempt total. The team passes in the first half to set up the run. And opposing offenses limit the Colts' drives by milking the clock. That leads to an average rush total for the Colts, although they are highly effective.
Joseph Addai 305
DeDe Dorsey: 90
Assorted Flotsam: 15
Last season was the first in the Tony Dungy era that he employed a running back committee. Joseph Addai hasn't been a primary back before, so the Colts should be conscious of overworking him. Addai has a huge role on third downs and should top 350 touches with ease. He can be a top-five player with that total, but 400-450 touches is a stretch. Dorsey remains one of our favorite deep sleepers.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Coach: Jack Del Rio, Average Rushes/Year: 423
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 440
Jack Del Rio teams run early and often. His average is especially impressive considering the Jacksonville offense hasn't excelled during his coaching reign. They hit 444 carries from running backs last year with an 8-8 squad. The Jaguars should be among the league leaders in attempts.
Fred Taylor: 200
Maurice Jones-Drew: 180
Greg Jones: 40
Assorted Flotsam: 20
They aren't paying Fred Taylor $5 million to climb the all-time rushing list. He's going to have a bigger role than Mo-Jo owners want to admit. Jones-Drew will get much of his value from his work on third downs and the goal line. He better hope Greg Jones doesn't become a vulture.
Kansas City Chiefs
Coach: Herm Edwards, Average Rushes/Year: 470
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 440
It's no surprise that Herm Edwards coached a running back to the all-time rushing attempts record. His old Jets teams were among the slowest paced units in recent NFL history. The Chiefs will remain run-heavy this season, but an overall offensive decline will hurt their total.
Larry Johnson: 320
Michael Bennett: 70
Kolby Smith: 50
I see the Chiefs running attack playing out in one of three ways.
1. Herm Edwards could keep up Johnson's pace from last year and LJ will break down.
2. Herm Edwards could get the backups more involved starting in Week 1 and LJ could stay healthy.
3. Herm Edwards could get the backups more involved and LJ could get hurt anyway.
No matter how you slice it, Johnson's attempts should decline significantly. And so will his fantasy value.
Miami Dolphins
Coach: Cam Cameron, Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 360
Cameron's teams in San Diego were run-first enterprises, but not always aggressively so when the game was close. It's unlikely Cameron has the offensive line to push people around this year and pile up rushing attempts.
Ronnie Brown: 280
Lorenzo Booker: 65
Jesse Chatman: 15
Brown should set a career high in attempts this year, but the Miami offense may keep him under 300. Booker is likely to help on third downs.
New England Patriots
Coach: Bill Belichick, Average Rushes/Year: 405
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 440
The Patriots are a pass-first team, but their rushing game benefits from their consistently effective passing attack. They have averaged 430 attempts the last four years, which is a good indicator for 2007.
Laurence Maroney: 285
Sammy Morris: 100
Kevin Faulk: 35
Heath Evans: 20
The Patriots like to spread the ball around, especially in the red zone. That could limit Maroney's carries somewhat. They won't overwork him like Corey Dillon in 2004. But Maroney will be fine (say it with me) if he stays healthy. If Maroney gets hurt, Morris, Faulk, and Evans would all get a taste.
New York Jets
Coach: Eric Mangini, Average Rushes/Year: 426
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 400
The Jets ran the ball a ton considering how ineffective they were (3.54 YPC). I suspect that was in part to shorten games and keep their rush defense off the field.
Thomas Jones: 260
Leon Washington: 110
Assorted Flotsam: 30
I might be guilty of overrating Washington. But Thomas Jones has proven more effective with fewer carries, and Washington's excellent rookie season is worth of 6-10 carries a game. The Jets should share the ball to maximize their offense, and I suspect they will. His recent calf strain is not a serious concern.
Oakland Raiders
Coach: Lane Kiffin, Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 360
The Raiders want to run, but will they be effective enough? Lane Kiffin used a committee at USC, and it looks like he'll go that route again when he has enough bodies.
LaMont Jordan: 195
Dominic Rhodes: 100
Michael Bush: 50
Justin Fargas: 25
Jordan's total is buoyed by the first month of the season when Rhodes is on suspension. The schedule is favorable early, so Jordan could earn lead back status with some good numbers. He's the best pro of this group. Bush's status is unknown, but I'd be shocked if he played during the first half of the season. He hasn't fully practiced as a pro, and we've heard nothing optimistic this month.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Coach: Mike Tomlin, Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 415
Reading the tealeaves in Pittsburgh, the Steelers won't as run-heavy under Mike Tomlin and coordinator Bruce Arians as they were under Bill Cowher. Few teams are. Look for the Steelers to run plenty, but nothing like the 2004-2005 Steelers.
Willie Parker: 320
Najeh Davenport: 75
Verron Haynes/Kevan Barlow: 20
Parker has a chance to be among the league leaders in carries. Despite his boom-or-bust tendencies, he doesn't have much downside in fantasy leagues because of his job security. Davenport may play a big role on third downs, but he isn't expected to get many early-down carries.
San Diego Chargers
Coach: Norv Turner, Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 450
Turner has a great reputation as a quarterback teacher and fantasy running back enabler, but his history as a head coach is decidedly average on offense. His Washington teams skewed run slightly, but his Oakland teams were forced to rely on the pass. The Chargers had 461 carries from their backs last season.
LaDainian Tomlinson: 335
Michael Turner: 90
Darren Sproles: 25
Perhaps Tomlinson's most underrated trait is his durability. He's finished among the top-six in rushing attempts in five of the last six years. There has been no indication that Michael Turner will have a bigger role this season.
Tennessee Titans
Coach: Jeff Fisher, Average Rushes/Year: 400
Projected 2007 Rushing Attempts: 385
I think of Jeff Fisher as a run-heavy coach, but the numbers don't always back it up. Since Eddie George retired, the Titans have averaged 370 carries a year. That number has a lot do with Tennessee's poor offense overall. They were third in the league in rush percentage in the first half of games last season, according to FootballOutsiders.com.
LenDale White: 205
Chris Brown: 115
Chris Henry: 60
Rotoworld has been driving the LenDale White bandwagon all offseason. Unfortunately, LenDale is on it or it would go faster. (With that, I swear to retire all LenWhale fat jokes).
You aren't going to find a higher upside selection than White for a RB3 in the sixth round or later. His Average Draft Position is starting to improve with Henry clearly lagging behind Brown and White in camp. Henry had a nice preseason game against third-stringers, but that's not a big concern. The Titans know what Brown can do, and would rather White take charge of this job. For the right price, we're gambling he does just that.
